Blowout Cards Forums
2017 Fall Sale

Go Back   Blowout Cards Forums > BLOWOUTS HOBBY TALK > NON-SPORTS

Notices

NON-SPORTS Post Your Non-Sports Cards Hobby Talk

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-16-2017, 06:07 PM   #201
AusRam
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 1,122
Default

Hope it isn't right, but as a Star Wars fan, I'll go 1138 cases ! ;-)
__________________
NFL Traders - http://s1089.photobucket.com/albums/i357/AusRam66/NFL/AAA%20-%20NFL%20TRADERS%20-%20AAA/
NASCAR Traders - http://s1089.photobucket.com/albums/i357/AusRam66/NASCAR/AAA%20NASCAR%20TRADERS%20AAA/
AusRam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 07:26 PM   #202
PoPCulture
Member
 
PoPCulture's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Keystone heights, FL
Posts: 2,318
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AusRam View Post
Hope it isn't right, but as a Star Wars fan, I'll go 1138 cases ! ;-)
Thanks for not going with 1977 mate
__________________
Florida Gators 2017 NCAA Baseball National Champions
PoPCulture is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 07:27 PM   #203
joudenjouden
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 973
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PoPCulture View Post
Thanks for not going with 1977 mate


Ahh hell I'll go with 2187 cases.

(Seriously though I'm keeping my number this was a joke)
joudenjouden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 07:29 PM   #204
AusRam
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 1,122
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PoPCulture View Post
Thanks for not going with 1977 mate
LOL!
__________________
NFL Traders - http://s1089.photobucket.com/albums/i357/AusRam66/NFL/AAA%20-%20NFL%20TRADERS%20-%20AAA/
NASCAR Traders - http://s1089.photobucket.com/albums/i357/AusRam66/NASCAR/AAA%20NASCAR%20TRADERS%20AAA/
AusRam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 10:03 PM   #205
Rootleaf
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 121
Default

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-Topps-S...cAAOSwyqFZa74S

Nice sketch. I asked for pack odds. The seller said he's listing it for a friend.
Rootleaf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 10:05 PM   #206
daviswr7
Member
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Utah
Posts: 2,823
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rootleaf View Post
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-Topps-S...cAAOSwyqFZa74S

Nice sketch. I asked for pack odds. The seller said he's listing it for a friend.
Man some ppl get stuff so early. Don't understand how they do it..
daviswr7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 10:46 PM   #207
kyle1707
Member
 
kyle1707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 12,905
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by daviswr7 View Post
Man some ppl get stuff so early. Don't understand how they do it..
Dist has had Ginter and this since friday for 3-4 day ships


Someone grabs it some how... will a way i guess
kyle1707 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 10:58 PM   #208
ForceChange77
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 241
Default

There is an auction for a father autograph
Parallel of /215
Not sure that is good .. or maybe no base autos?
ForceChange77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:15 PM   #209
jdhaugh11
Member
 
jdhaugh11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Iowa
Posts: 4,266
Default

Topps might have numbered the base autos this time, which is like what the did for the Sugar Free Gum box set.
Kind of cool to do once in awhile. Might add a little value and certainly adds more transparency to production run.
jdhaugh11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:21 PM   #210
ForceChange77
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 241
Default

Wow. That's sketchy. Seller just ended the auction. Somebody must be watching.
ForceChange77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:25 PM   #211
ForceChange77
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 241
Default

Seller also had a purple /99 boba fett parallel base card fs. That is ended too
ForceChange77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:30 PM   #212
Rootleaf
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 121
Default

He had 3 purples (one was an insert) listed, one auto, one sketch. I bet he opened a box. Adding up all of the purple base and inserts comes to 26136. If you average 3 per box that comes to 726 cases exactly. I realize there are probably different odds for base and insert parallels so this is unlikely to be accurate.
Rootleaf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:38 PM   #213
joudenjouden
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 973
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rootleaf View Post
He had 3 purples (one was an insert) listed, one auto, one sketch. I bet he opened a box. Adding up all of the purple base and inserts comes to 26136. If you average 3 per box that comes to 726 cases exactly. I realize there are probably different odds for base and insert parallels so this is unlikely to be accurate.


That's definitely a starting point, everything before that was pure speculation
joudenjouden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:39 PM   #214
ForceChange77
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 241
Default

He also had 2 /199 green base cards. He opened a box. Should be able to figure out odds. Purple and green exclusive to hobby?
ForceChange77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2017, 11:44 PM   #215
jdhaugh11
Member
 
jdhaugh11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Iowa
Posts: 4,266
Default

The green #/199 are in both hobby and retail, while purple parallels #/99 are hobby only.
So I bet you will get around the same of both on average per box, and maybe even get slightly more of the purple parallels #/99 per hobby box.
Depends how much they put into retail.

If I remember right they did something similar in R1 Mission Briefing. I think the parallels #/50 were slightly easier to get in hobby than the ones #'ed out of 100!
jdhaugh11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 06:48 AM   #216
richo
Member
 
richo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 1,717
Default

Final competition guesses. This is now closed!

insanepjc 565
Butterbean 575
Jackg1980 630
PoPCulture 675
ksmith31 675
joudenjouden 680
Rootleaf 700
Cujobyte 725
richo 750
Jdhaugh11 775
Deeceman 777
hiltonL 799
Vargaman 800
Ifish73 825
floater 850
slidethefive 851
acegambit3 875
hobbystuff 888
Sushiyoshi 900
GOBIAS 925
ForceChange77 950
daviswr7 975
maxpower 1010
Deathgate 1025
DarthRogahn 1050
AusRam 1138
Carrbeaz 1280

That is a very early break somebody has listed. If he/she got all 3 purples in just one box, I reckon we are looking around 725-750. Of course we don't know if they opened more boxes. On the slightly more worrying side, I really hope that auto numbering is base numbering, if not then a much higher run is possible.
richo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 06:57 AM   #217
richo
Member
 
richo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 1,717
Default

Just for fun, taking all our considered expertise and averaging the estimates gives us 840 cases.
richo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 09:58 AM   #218
jdhaugh11
Member
 
jdhaugh11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Iowa
Posts: 4,266
Default

Well, in order to have the production run around 750 cases, we want to see the base red 1/1 parallels have a pack odds of about 1,080, or the 6-way auto to be 108,000.

It does look like the early ebay listing was 1 box worth of cards, so that is promising.
I think this at least shows us that we are in the ballpark, and we shouldn't see a crazy high production run.
jdhaugh11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 01:32 PM   #219
Butterbean
Member
 
Butterbean's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Ohio
Posts: 171
Default

We're so smart!!! Yay!!!!
Butterbean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 02:59 PM   #220
jdhaugh11
Member
 
jdhaugh11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Iowa
Posts: 4,266
Default

So with the base autos being serial #'ed and assuming each is numbered out 215, that limits how much hobby they can make.

Now if they make it like 40th Annv and you get 1 base auto per box, and assuming that only 45 of the 62 autos even have a base, that would mean there are 232,200 packs or 806 cases. (40th had about 42-45 of the 62 signer with a base auto)

This calculation would mean that there are zero base autos in retail, which we know will not be the case. So if 10% of the base autos are in retail, then there would only be 725 hobby cases made.

The other option could be that you get something like 9 base autos per case and 3 parallel autos. If this is the case, then Topps made as much as 968 cases (taking out 10% again for retail base autos).

10% might not seem like much for retail, but with has hard as retail autos are to hit, 968 total base autos in retail is a good amount and may even be high.

(215*0.1)*45=968
Print run * 10% * base checklist count = 968

So I think that puts us at a possible low of 725 and the highest it can be at 968

Last edited by jdhaugh11; 07-17-2017 at 03:02 PM.
jdhaugh11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 03:55 PM   #221
richo
Member
 
richo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 1,717
Default

I have been cutting the figures left right and centre, all be it with the paucity of data available.

I'll say based on some rough calculations, low estimate based on several mid range signers not having over 99 base, 10% retail and also 219 being the upper number of very common base, I reckon 675. High based on 10-20 signers having base to 299, retail 2.5%, I'll say around 880. Both models assume at least 10-15 signers with very ltd auto numbers.

Low 675, high 880.
richo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 04:32 PM   #222
floater
Member
 
floater's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Wales
Posts: 874
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by richo View Post
Just for fun, taking all our considered expertise and averaging the estimates gives us 840 cases.
So, the "Wisdom of the Crowd" gives us 840 cases. That's not bad considering the actual number of cases is 850 😂👍
floater is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 04:34 PM   #223
floater
Member
 
floater's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Wales
Posts: 874
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhaugh11 View Post
So with the base autos being serial #'ed and assuming each is numbered out 215, that limits how much hobby they can make.

Now if they make it like 40th Annv and you get 1 base auto per box, and assuming that only 45 of the 62 autos even have a base, that would mean there are 232,200 packs or 806 cases. (40th had about 42-45 of the 62 signer with a base auto)

This calculation would mean that there are zero base autos in retail, which we know will not be the case. So if 10% of the base autos are in retail, then there would only be 725 hobby cases made.

The other option could be that you get something like 9 base autos per case and 3 parallel autos. If this is the case, then Topps made as much as 968 cases (taking out 10% again for retail base autos).

10% might not seem like much for retail, but with has hard as retail autos are to hit, 968 total base autos in retail is a good amount and may even be high.

(215*0.1)*45=968
Print run * 10% * base checklist count = 968

So I think that puts us at a possible low of 725 and the highest it can be at 968
968 + 725 / 2 = 846.5 cases 😋
floater is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 04:36 PM   #224
jdhaugh11
Member
 
jdhaugh11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Iowa
Posts: 4,266
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by floater View Post
968 + 725 / 2 = 846.5 cases ��
You just want a free Nien Nunb auto don't you! LOL
jdhaugh11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2017, 04:47 PM   #225
floater
Member
 
floater's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Wales
Posts: 874
Default

lol no I just like winning

I'd rather it was 375 cases and they are all super loaded for you guys who took the gamble on a pre-order.

Good luck everybody, and please bear me in mind for any printing plates you pull, for trade or sale
floater is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:35 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 2013, Blowout Cards Inc.