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Old 04-07-2017, 02:20 PM   #1
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Default NBA - Max, Super Max, Designated Player + More

This is an absolutely fascinating read. It's so good it's not even worth trying to bullet point. This should be required reading before you are allowed to post in threads regarding free agents, the CBA, the salary cap etc... I consider myself pretty smart (I understand a good bit of the CBA and I'm a CPA in real life) and it still made my head spin going over the numbers.

You don't have to be a Jazz fan to appreciate.

Gordon Hayward Could Become Most Interesting Man in NBA This Summer | HeatHoops - A Miami Heat blog
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:47 PM   #2
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The Pacers are facing this same dilemma with Paul George this summer, though it's not an absolute necessity that they extend him this summer because he still has another year on his contract. If he makes an All-NBA team then he qualifies for this designated-veteran-player extension that would kick in for the 2018-19 season and projects be worth about $209 million over five years (about $42 million annually). He can still qualify for that designated-veteran-player extension next season as well though, since he is still under contract with the Pacers for next season.

As a fan of the Pacers, I'm really hoping he makes an All-NBA team this season because I think it would be too much money to pass up on for PG13. Sure he could still qualify for the extension if he makes All-NBA next season but if the opportunity to guarantee that extension is there this summer I don't think you take the risk and hope you make All-NBA again the next season.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:48 PM   #3
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Good read. Taking short-term deals to improve the Tier status seems smart...on the surface. But guys like Hayward gotta know that (a) There's no guarantee he's ever gonna be on an All-NBA team and (b) Injuries happen.

If I were him, I'll take the 1+1 deal and bet on myself to make the All-NBA next season. After that, go for the max.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:49 PM   #4
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It's going to be a few interesting years with the new CBA. Teams are going to really have to lean on their Dleague players and picks to keep costs down and stay out of the Tax levels.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:50 PM   #5
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The Pacers are facing this same dilemma with Paul George this summer, though it's not an absolute necessity that they extend him this summer because he still has another year on his contract. If he makes an All-NBA team then he qualifies for this designated-veteran-player extension that would kick in for the 2018-19 season and projects be worth about $209 million over five years (about $42 million annually). He can still qualify for that designated-veteran-player extension next season as well though, since he is still under contract with the Pacers for next season.

As a fan of the Pacers, I'm really hoping he makes an All-NBA team this season because I think it would be too much money to pass up on for PG13. Sure he could still qualify for the extension if he makes All-NBA next season but if the opportunity to guarantee that extension is there this summer I don't think you take the risk and hope you make All-NBA again the next season.
Good article OP.

I have several thoughts, but one is related to Steveo's above.

In the new NBA, my fear is that the player and agent sign the deal that's worth the most, with an intention on waiting a year before they put up a stink about the team/organization whatever, and then demanding a trade to a list of other teams. That way, they still get their true MAX while getting to eventually go a place that they wanted to.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:52 PM   #6
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We had a good slap fight on the Browns message board about this (meaning there were like 10% of people posting that understood the cap and/or CBA)... lots of Cavs fans, but casual fans, whining about the contracts of guys like Thompson, Shumpert, and even Love.

More taking out their frustrations about how bad March was and how overpaid everyone was.

I posted this article there to try and explain that Tristan making 16.5 million isn't that bad. Love being locked in at 22 million a year for the next 3 years is a steal. That Shumpert making 10 million isn't going to break the bank.

All I had to do was show them the George Hill section of that article (no disrespect to the fine player that Hill is)
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:53 PM   #7
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Good article OP.

I have several thoughts, but one is related to Steveo's above.

In the new NBA, my fear is that the player and agent sign the deal that's worth the most, with an intention on waiting a year before they put up a stink about the team/organization whatever, and then demanding a trade to a list of other teams. That way, they still get their true MAX while getting to eventually go a place that they wanted to.
That's a possibility for sure, but I think it wouldn't be wise for any player to do, and the power will always be with the team in those cases. The player can raise a stink all they want but the team can simply say no to those demands. Then if a player starts sandbagging, it drags their trade value down and I'm sure would turn off potential trade partners as well. It also creates a PR nightmare for the player and affects their ability to land endorsement deals.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:55 PM   #8
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We had a good slap fight on the Browns message board about this (meaning there were like 10% of people posting that understood the cap and/or CBA)... lots of Cavs fans, but casual fans, whining about the contracts of guys like Thompson, Shumpert, and even Love.

More taking out their frustrations about how bad March was and how overpaid everyone was.

I posted this article there to try and explain that Tristan making 16.5 million isn't that bad. Love being locked in at 22 million a year for the next 3 years is a steal. That Shumpert making 10 million isn't going to break the bank.

All I had to do was show them the George Hill section of that article (no disrespect to the fine player that Hill is)
George Hill is a very good complimentary piece on a good team, but I'd agree that if any team signs him for the money he's expecting to get on the open market that they're absolutely going to regret it by the next summer.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:58 PM   #9
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The whole article can cut down 75% volume because Gordon Hayward is not going to make this year All-NBA team.

Then for Sub-Scenario 2C, you can eliminate the concept of "max salary" because he will be 29, and has ZERO all-nba team in his 9-year career. By then, Jazz will not offer max. Hayward will seek for Spurs for championship ring like Aldridge did.

He can take the gamble by having 2-year contract and hopes that he will make into all-nba team once. Then, he will be allowed to get super-max.

Or he can play it safe by getting a max (not 30-35% super max) contract this summer.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:58 PM   #10
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George Hill is a very good complimentary piece on a good team, but I'd agree that if any team signs him for the money he's expecting to get on the open market that they're absolutely going to regret it by the next summer.
I wrote Hill off once he turned down the offer made at the deadline. That's too much to pay for him.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:01 PM   #11
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my fear is that the player and agent sign the deal that's worth the most, with an intention on waiting a year before they put up a stink about the team/organization whatever, and then demanding a trade to a list of other teams. That way, they still get their true MAX while getting to eventually go a place that they wanted to.
100% will happen. Problem is those deals will be so big it will be in most cases next to impossible to facilitate any kinda trade. Still have to match salaries.

The bigger issue for teams is going to be timing. In the case of George and Hayward - signing them to a supermax in the next 2 years isn't too scary as they're both what? 26-27? Look at my Raptors for the danger zone. Kyle Lowry is going to demand it and is already 31. It's a much bigger gamble and i'm guessing there'll be more than a few cases where a team is burned big by signing a 30-34 year old player to one of these contracts.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:03 PM   #12
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100% will happen. Problem is those deals will be so big it will be in most cases next to impossible to facilitate any kinda trade. Still have to match salaries.

The bigger issue for teams is going to be timing. In the case of George and Hayward - signing them to a supermax in the next 2 years isn't too scary as they're both what? 26-27? Look at my Raptors for the danger zone. Kyle Lowry is going to demand it and is already 31. It's a much bigger gamble and i'm guessing there'll be more than a few cases where a team is burned big by signing a 30-34 year old player to one of these contracts.
The Toronto and Utah situations are both so interesting.

For Toronto, to me it depends on what they do this postseason. I think that if they can find their chemistry by round 2 (unlikely) they're the team in the East with the best chance to beat Cleveland. Likely? No. 25%-ish? Yeah.

And if you go to the finals, it's hard to not re-up Lowry.... but even then, it'll be a punch in the gut.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:05 PM   #13
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The whole article can cut down 75% volume because Gordon Hayward is not going to make this year All-NBA team.

Then for Sub-Scenario 2C, you can eliminate the concept of "max salary" because he will be 29, and has ZERO all-nba team in his 9-year career. By then, Jazz will not offer max. Hayward will seek for Spurs for championship ring like Aldridge did.

He can take the gamble by having 2-year contract and hopes that he will make into all-nba team once. Then, he will be allowed to get super-max.

Or he can play it safe by getting a max (not 30-35% super max) contract this summer.
True - there are realistic scenarios and pie in the sky ones.

But it's still interesting, regardless of player, just to see the various situations. It's not nearly as simple as the old days.

It's what makes Golden State so fascinating potentially.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:07 PM   #14
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True - there are realistic scenarios and pie in the sky ones.

But it's still interesting, regardless of player, just to see the various situations. It's not nearly as simple as the old days.

It's what makes Golden State so fascinating potentially.
Odds Hayward makes all NBA third team?
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:11 PM   #15
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The Toronto and Utah situations are both so interesting.

For Toronto, to me it depends on what they do this postseason. I think that if they can find their chemistry by round 2 (unlikely) they're the team in the East with the best chance to beat Cleveland. Likely? No. 25%-ish? Yeah.

And if you go to the finals, it's hard to not re-up Lowry.... but even then, it'll be a punch in the gut.
It's next to impossible not to re-up him. You can't let one of the top guards in the league walk and get nothing in return. The fan base would be p+ssed. Best case right now is signing him for 4 years at more than he can make on the open market but less than supermax. That said - MLSE has Billionaire owners who apparently have said they don't mind going into the tax if the team keeps winning.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:12 PM   #16
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Odds Hayward makes all NBA third team?
10% maybe? I just don't see him taking over Green and that's the only potential slot.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:12 PM   #17
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Odds Hayward makes all NBA third team?
Honestly i'd put it at 5% or less. Who would he bump?
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:15 PM   #18
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Odds Hayward makes all NBA third team?
I would say the odds of him making an All-NBA team this year are slim to none, but not impossible. Same thing with Paul George. George might have a slight advantage because he has previously been named to an All-NBA team 3 times and I do believe there is some slight bias towards players who have been named to those teams before.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:21 PM   #19
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I am a fan of looking at salary cap numbers in relation to trade value, cap space, etc.. NBA were ridiculous before, now they are beyond stupid. Whatever scenario happens, Hayward is expected to make $40+ million in a year. I like him as a player, but that is some serious cheese. George freaking Hill turning down 90 million thinking he will get 4 years at close to 30 per.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:26 PM   #20
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Honestly i'd put it at 5% or less. Who would he bump?
Kawhi and lebron are no brainers.

Who else is a no brainer really though? Durant has missed how many games? And butler/giannis/George are all playing for teams that are still just fighting to get in to the playoffs. Will draymond/AD receive more votes at the 4/5?

I don't know if hayward has a real chance or not, but those questions/concerns probably need to be answered before we put the nail in the coffin.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:30 PM   #21
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Kawhi and lebron are no brainers.

Who else is a no brainer really though? Durant has missed how many games? And butler/giannis/George are all playing for teams that are still just fighting to get in to the playoffs. Will draymond/AD receive more votes at the 4/5?

I don't know if hayward has a real chance or not, but those questions/concerns probably need to be answered before we put the nail in the coffin.
Based on his insane numbers and depending on if he's categorized as a F (or a G), Giannis is well ahead of Hayward of George, regardless of team accomplishments.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:32 PM   #22
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Kawhi and lebron are no brainers.

Who else is a no brainer really though? Durant has missed how many games? And butler/giannis/George are all playing for teams that are still just fighting to get in to the playoffs. Will draymond/AD receive more votes at the 4/5?

I don't know if hayward has a real chance or not, but those questions/concerns probably need to be answered before we put the nail in the coffin.
LeBron, Kawhi, Butler, and Giannis are locks (if you assume Giannis is a F)

I don't think Durant missed enough time.

So it's between Green, George, and Hayward. I just don't think Hayward can get it done.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:35 PM   #23
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LeBron, Kawhi, Butler, and Giannis are locks (if you assume Giannis is a F)

I don't think Durant missed enough time.

So it's between Green, George, and Hayward. I just don't think Hayward can get it done.
I don't see Butler as a lock. His vanity stats are basically identical to PG13, other than averaging about 2 more assists per game.

I'd say Butler, PG13 and Hayward are all pretty much neck and neck for the final Forward spot, if Giannis is catergorized as a G. If they categorize Giannis as a G then you've got

Lebron, Kawhi, Durant, Green and then one of Butler, George or Hayward.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:37 PM   #24
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Based on his insane numbers and depending on if he's categorized as a F (or a G), Giannis is well ahead of Hayward of George, regardless of team accomplishments.
I think you're probably right here. What about George and jimmy?

And are we sure that draymond doesn't go on as a center? Last I checked, AD had played more of the season as a center.

And I think there's a case that Gordon deserves it more than George and draymond this year. Would have to think about butler.
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Old 04-07-2017, 03:41 PM   #25
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I think you're probably right here. What about George and jimmy?

And are we sure that draymond doesn't go on as a center? Last I checked, AD had played more of the season as a center.

And I think there's a case that Gordon deserves it more than George and draymond this year. Would have to think about butler.
There's actually a fairly realistic chance all 3 of Butler, George and Hayward get in. Let's say they put Green in as a C and AD as a C, and Giannis as a G.

Forwards
Lebron/Kawhi - 1st team
Durant/Butler - 2nd team
PG13/Hayward - 3rd team
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