NickM
05-23-2016, 09:06 PM
Now that a month and a half has passed since the auction, we can look back and see how everyone did.
First off, houdini as the breaker lost several thousand dollars, because the per-team average price realized was over $100 below the price of the cases divided by 32.
I assigned values to the cards based on ebay highest sale +25% for something sufficiently similar of the same player, where available. This is a price that if the card had come up on ebay, you would likely have been able to successfully get it for. It's an optimistic way to calculate value.
Here is the breakdown of cards, value, and cost by team.
49ers: $500
Davis dual patch (college/pro), Craig auto, Lott diamond, Craig dual patch auto, S. Young auto, D. Clark auto
$125 for the Steve Young auto, $112.50 for the Craig dual patch auto, $95 for the Lott diamond, $65 for the Craig auto (based on an outlier sale - 2nd high sale was basically half of that), but only $25 for the Dwight Clark auto and $12.50 for the Davis dual patch. Didn't break even, but not that serious a loss.
Bears: $426
Briggs patch auto, Sayers emerald, Payton emerald, White dual patch (college/pro), Singletary patch auto
$195 for a Payton emerald, $80 for Singletary patch auto, $70 for Briggs patch auto, $62.50 for a Sayers emerald, and $32.50 for the White patch. All of that, and the Bears barely came out ahead.
Bengals: $175
Eifert jumbo patch
Value calculation tops out at about $50. Sizable loss.
Bills: $255
Watkins jumbo patch, McCoy sapphire
Call it $35 on the patch and $60 on the McCoy. Sizable loss.
Broncos: $415
Sharpe ruby, D. Thomas patch auto /5 (part of word Broncos), Bailey jumbo patch
He sold these as a lot for $225. Using my value calculator, It's $162.50 for the Thomas, $92.50 for the Bailey (but that was a far nicer patch), and $37.50 for the Sharpe. A sizable loss, any way you look at it.
Browns: $130
Duke Johnson diamond, Jim Brown diamond
Duke Johnson diamond calculates out at $100, and since the closest thing on Jim Brown that has sold on ebay is his Flawless diamond from last year, I'll call that another $100-$120. Nice win. :)
Buccaneers: $1000
Winston auto /10 (quad pic), Sapp auto, Winston dual patch (college/pro), Winston auto /15
About $295 and $285 for the 2 Winston autos, $65 for the Sapp auto, and $62.50 for the Winston dual patch. Percentagewise, not a huge loss, but still a substantial sum of money.
Cardinals: $200
Fitzgerald diamond, Fitzgerald jumbo patch
$72 for the patch and $50 for the diamond. Sizable loss.
Chargers: $235
Gordon auto (quad pic), 2 Joiner auto, Gordon jumbo patch, Steve Johnson auto
$60 for Melvin Gordon's auto, $40 for his jumbo patch, $112.50 for the 2 Joiners (based on 1 outlier sale - the next sale would put these to about $90), and $31.50 for the Johnson (also based on 1 outlier sale). All of that, and the Chargers barely broke even.
Chiefs: $235
Charles patch auto, Conley auto 1/1, Kelce patch auto, Charles jumbo patch, Conley auto /5
Say $105 for the Kelce patch auto, $100 for the Charles patch auto, $50 for the Charles jumbo patch, and you're already a winner before you get to the Conleys. Oddly, that particular one pose of his auto cards sells for a lot less than the other (no subset apparent), but even at $30 for the emerald, the platinum is a $100+ card. Big win, even if it's hard to quantify the value.
Colts: $465
Dorsett auto (quad pic), Dorsett dual patch (college/pro)
$37.50 for the Dorsett auto and $25 for the Dorsett dual patch. Huge loss. :(:(
Cowboys: $535
Lilly auto /5, Witten auto, Bryant patch auto, Lilly auto
$130 for the Bryant patch auto, $90 for the Witten auto, $92.50 for the Lilly emerald auto, and $50 for his other auto. Great cards, but still a sizable loss.
Dolphins: $356
2 Marino patch auto, Ajayi patch auto
$500 each for the Marinos, and another $125 for the Ajayi. Huge win. :)
Eagles: $140
3 Agholor dual patch (college/pro), Matthews patch auto, Agholor diamond, 2 Agholor jumbo patch
$70 for the Agholor diamond, $65 for the Matthews patch auto, $60 each for the 3 Agholor dual patches (but that value is based on 1 outlier sale - the 2nd high sale would put them at $25 each), and $37.50 for the pair of Agholor dual patches. A big win regardless of the value of the dual patches. :)
Falcons: $175
Ryan auto, Coleman auto
$110 for the Ryan auto and $37.50 for the Coleman auto. Not that big a loss. I was surprised by how high Ryan is selling in comparison to other QBs.
Giants: $225
Strahan dual patch auto, Manning emerald
$150 for the Strahan dual patch and $112.50 for the Manning emerald. That's actually a win. :)
Jaguars: $225
2 Greene ruby, Bortles sapphire, 2 Yeldon auto (quad pic), Yeldon patch auto
$38.50 each on the Greenes, $37.50 on the Bortles, $95 on the Yeldon patch auto, and $36 each on the Yeldon autos. It's a win with a comfortable amount to spare. :)
Jets: $210
Decker auto, Tebow patch auto, Namath dual patch auto, Devin Smith auto
The Namath is $270 by itself. The Decker is $26.25, the Tebow is $78.25, and the Smith is $31.25. Big win. :)
Lions: $278
Stafford auto, Stafford patch auto, Abdullah dual patch (college/pro)
The Stafford patch auto is $125 (although this is based on an outlier sale), the Stafford auto is $45, and the Abdullah is $25. Sizable loss.
Packers: $578
Ty Montgomery auto (quad pic), Favre patch auto, Montgomery dual patch (college/pro) /5, Hundley auto, Montgomery auto, Hundley auto (quad pic), Montgomery ruby
The Montgomery ruby is $47, both types of Montgomery autos are $32.50, and the Montgomery dual patch is $23. The Hundley auto is $130, although this is based on an outlier sale (other sales would put it at $100 or less). The Favre is the big hit at $375. It's a win.
Panthers: $205
Olsen auto, Newton sapphire
Call it $60 on the Olsen (he sells surprisingly well) and $80 on the Newton. Newton diamonds /20 do a lot better than Newton sapphires /10. It's a loss, but if you lose 1/3 of your money, you didn't hit a disaster.
Patriots: $605
Brady patch auto
Big win. Value calculation comes to about $1200. This was a highly risky bet that paid off. If you don't hit a Brady patch auto or Brady auto, there's nothing in the sparse Patriots portion of the checklist that will bring you anywhere close to the price. :)
Raiders: $606
Carr auto, Hendricks ruby, Cooper jumbo patch
The Carr is $80. So is the Cooper. The Hendricks is $22. Ouch. Very big loss. :(
Rams: $750
Foles auto
It's a $25 value tops. And that's being very generous. At the bid price, this is a participation ribbon. :(:(
Ravens: $200
Perriman sapphire, Perriman diamond
The 2 Perrimans have the same value. Unfortunately, they only total up to $75. Sizable loss.
Redskins: $275
RGIII patch auto, Cousins jumbo patch
Value calculator gives $125 for the RGIII and $65 for the Cousins. However, there is one outlier BIN on the RGIII, otherwise it's $80, and the Cousins was a much nicer patch. Sizable loss.
Saints: $175
Shut out. :(
Seahawks: $525
Lynch sapphire, Sherman auto, Lockett jumbo patch
The Lynch is $60. Sapphires just don't sell well. The Sherman is $345, though this is based on an outlier sale, as all other sales would put it at under $200. The Lockett is $112.50, although this is based on another outlier sale, as the next highest would give a value of $50. Based on this method, the Seahawks almost broke even. It's really a loss of some significance.
Steelers: $405
Coates auto, Coates auto (quad pic), 2 Harris auto
2 Harris autos at $100 apiece, and Coates sells surprisingly well - $95 and $57.50 top the value calculator for his auto and Progressions auto respectively. It's a loss, but not that significant.
Texans: $250
Strong auto, Watt diamond
$75 for the Watt, and value calculator gives $50 for the Strong, helped along by a couple of outlier sales on someone whose cards sometimes go under $10. Sizable loss.
Titans: $1600
Mariota auto /15, DGB auto (quad pic), Cobb auto, DGB auto
Call the Mariota auto $375. The DGB autos come to $75 and $40, with the Progressions auto being the cheaper of the two. Cobb's auto would be $20.
While some other teams had similar percentage losses, this is huge in dollar value. :(:(
Vikings: $225
Diggs auto (quad pic)
Diggs is hot, but value calculation tops out at $50. Big loss.
That's 11 of 30 teams with wins at optimistic measures of value.
The worse news is for people considering hit or team drafts.
I assign the Conley as a $150 or greater value for this. That makes 13 of 100 cards with a $150 value or greater. That's the price of a hit draft spot. So, if you get 2nd pick in a hit draft, you have a greater than 50% chance of losing money.
For a team draft (or team random), $45 could get you 1 team in 1 box. If collation never gave you the same team twice in a box, only 69 of 320 slots would have been winners, with 220 slots getting nothing at all.
First off, houdini as the breaker lost several thousand dollars, because the per-team average price realized was over $100 below the price of the cases divided by 32.
I assigned values to the cards based on ebay highest sale +25% for something sufficiently similar of the same player, where available. This is a price that if the card had come up on ebay, you would likely have been able to successfully get it for. It's an optimistic way to calculate value.
Here is the breakdown of cards, value, and cost by team.
49ers: $500
Davis dual patch (college/pro), Craig auto, Lott diamond, Craig dual patch auto, S. Young auto, D. Clark auto
$125 for the Steve Young auto, $112.50 for the Craig dual patch auto, $95 for the Lott diamond, $65 for the Craig auto (based on an outlier sale - 2nd high sale was basically half of that), but only $25 for the Dwight Clark auto and $12.50 for the Davis dual patch. Didn't break even, but not that serious a loss.
Bears: $426
Briggs patch auto, Sayers emerald, Payton emerald, White dual patch (college/pro), Singletary patch auto
$195 for a Payton emerald, $80 for Singletary patch auto, $70 for Briggs patch auto, $62.50 for a Sayers emerald, and $32.50 for the White patch. All of that, and the Bears barely came out ahead.
Bengals: $175
Eifert jumbo patch
Value calculation tops out at about $50. Sizable loss.
Bills: $255
Watkins jumbo patch, McCoy sapphire
Call it $35 on the patch and $60 on the McCoy. Sizable loss.
Broncos: $415
Sharpe ruby, D. Thomas patch auto /5 (part of word Broncos), Bailey jumbo patch
He sold these as a lot for $225. Using my value calculator, It's $162.50 for the Thomas, $92.50 for the Bailey (but that was a far nicer patch), and $37.50 for the Sharpe. A sizable loss, any way you look at it.
Browns: $130
Duke Johnson diamond, Jim Brown diamond
Duke Johnson diamond calculates out at $100, and since the closest thing on Jim Brown that has sold on ebay is his Flawless diamond from last year, I'll call that another $100-$120. Nice win. :)
Buccaneers: $1000
Winston auto /10 (quad pic), Sapp auto, Winston dual patch (college/pro), Winston auto /15
About $295 and $285 for the 2 Winston autos, $65 for the Sapp auto, and $62.50 for the Winston dual patch. Percentagewise, not a huge loss, but still a substantial sum of money.
Cardinals: $200
Fitzgerald diamond, Fitzgerald jumbo patch
$72 for the patch and $50 for the diamond. Sizable loss.
Chargers: $235
Gordon auto (quad pic), 2 Joiner auto, Gordon jumbo patch, Steve Johnson auto
$60 for Melvin Gordon's auto, $40 for his jumbo patch, $112.50 for the 2 Joiners (based on 1 outlier sale - the next sale would put these to about $90), and $31.50 for the Johnson (also based on 1 outlier sale). All of that, and the Chargers barely broke even.
Chiefs: $235
Charles patch auto, Conley auto 1/1, Kelce patch auto, Charles jumbo patch, Conley auto /5
Say $105 for the Kelce patch auto, $100 for the Charles patch auto, $50 for the Charles jumbo patch, and you're already a winner before you get to the Conleys. Oddly, that particular one pose of his auto cards sells for a lot less than the other (no subset apparent), but even at $30 for the emerald, the platinum is a $100+ card. Big win, even if it's hard to quantify the value.
Colts: $465
Dorsett auto (quad pic), Dorsett dual patch (college/pro)
$37.50 for the Dorsett auto and $25 for the Dorsett dual patch. Huge loss. :(:(
Cowboys: $535
Lilly auto /5, Witten auto, Bryant patch auto, Lilly auto
$130 for the Bryant patch auto, $90 for the Witten auto, $92.50 for the Lilly emerald auto, and $50 for his other auto. Great cards, but still a sizable loss.
Dolphins: $356
2 Marino patch auto, Ajayi patch auto
$500 each for the Marinos, and another $125 for the Ajayi. Huge win. :)
Eagles: $140
3 Agholor dual patch (college/pro), Matthews patch auto, Agholor diamond, 2 Agholor jumbo patch
$70 for the Agholor diamond, $65 for the Matthews patch auto, $60 each for the 3 Agholor dual patches (but that value is based on 1 outlier sale - the 2nd high sale would put them at $25 each), and $37.50 for the pair of Agholor dual patches. A big win regardless of the value of the dual patches. :)
Falcons: $175
Ryan auto, Coleman auto
$110 for the Ryan auto and $37.50 for the Coleman auto. Not that big a loss. I was surprised by how high Ryan is selling in comparison to other QBs.
Giants: $225
Strahan dual patch auto, Manning emerald
$150 for the Strahan dual patch and $112.50 for the Manning emerald. That's actually a win. :)
Jaguars: $225
2 Greene ruby, Bortles sapphire, 2 Yeldon auto (quad pic), Yeldon patch auto
$38.50 each on the Greenes, $37.50 on the Bortles, $95 on the Yeldon patch auto, and $36 each on the Yeldon autos. It's a win with a comfortable amount to spare. :)
Jets: $210
Decker auto, Tebow patch auto, Namath dual patch auto, Devin Smith auto
The Namath is $270 by itself. The Decker is $26.25, the Tebow is $78.25, and the Smith is $31.25. Big win. :)
Lions: $278
Stafford auto, Stafford patch auto, Abdullah dual patch (college/pro)
The Stafford patch auto is $125 (although this is based on an outlier sale), the Stafford auto is $45, and the Abdullah is $25. Sizable loss.
Packers: $578
Ty Montgomery auto (quad pic), Favre patch auto, Montgomery dual patch (college/pro) /5, Hundley auto, Montgomery auto, Hundley auto (quad pic), Montgomery ruby
The Montgomery ruby is $47, both types of Montgomery autos are $32.50, and the Montgomery dual patch is $23. The Hundley auto is $130, although this is based on an outlier sale (other sales would put it at $100 or less). The Favre is the big hit at $375. It's a win.
Panthers: $205
Olsen auto, Newton sapphire
Call it $60 on the Olsen (he sells surprisingly well) and $80 on the Newton. Newton diamonds /20 do a lot better than Newton sapphires /10. It's a loss, but if you lose 1/3 of your money, you didn't hit a disaster.
Patriots: $605
Brady patch auto
Big win. Value calculation comes to about $1200. This was a highly risky bet that paid off. If you don't hit a Brady patch auto or Brady auto, there's nothing in the sparse Patriots portion of the checklist that will bring you anywhere close to the price. :)
Raiders: $606
Carr auto, Hendricks ruby, Cooper jumbo patch
The Carr is $80. So is the Cooper. The Hendricks is $22. Ouch. Very big loss. :(
Rams: $750
Foles auto
It's a $25 value tops. And that's being very generous. At the bid price, this is a participation ribbon. :(:(
Ravens: $200
Perriman sapphire, Perriman diamond
The 2 Perrimans have the same value. Unfortunately, they only total up to $75. Sizable loss.
Redskins: $275
RGIII patch auto, Cousins jumbo patch
Value calculator gives $125 for the RGIII and $65 for the Cousins. However, there is one outlier BIN on the RGIII, otherwise it's $80, and the Cousins was a much nicer patch. Sizable loss.
Saints: $175
Shut out. :(
Seahawks: $525
Lynch sapphire, Sherman auto, Lockett jumbo patch
The Lynch is $60. Sapphires just don't sell well. The Sherman is $345, though this is based on an outlier sale, as all other sales would put it at under $200. The Lockett is $112.50, although this is based on another outlier sale, as the next highest would give a value of $50. Based on this method, the Seahawks almost broke even. It's really a loss of some significance.
Steelers: $405
Coates auto, Coates auto (quad pic), 2 Harris auto
2 Harris autos at $100 apiece, and Coates sells surprisingly well - $95 and $57.50 top the value calculator for his auto and Progressions auto respectively. It's a loss, but not that significant.
Texans: $250
Strong auto, Watt diamond
$75 for the Watt, and value calculator gives $50 for the Strong, helped along by a couple of outlier sales on someone whose cards sometimes go under $10. Sizable loss.
Titans: $1600
Mariota auto /15, DGB auto (quad pic), Cobb auto, DGB auto
Call the Mariota auto $375. The DGB autos come to $75 and $40, with the Progressions auto being the cheaper of the two. Cobb's auto would be $20.
While some other teams had similar percentage losses, this is huge in dollar value. :(:(
Vikings: $225
Diggs auto (quad pic)
Diggs is hot, but value calculation tops out at $50. Big loss.
That's 11 of 30 teams with wins at optimistic measures of value.
The worse news is for people considering hit or team drafts.
I assign the Conley as a $150 or greater value for this. That makes 13 of 100 cards with a $150 value or greater. That's the price of a hit draft spot. So, if you get 2nd pick in a hit draft, you have a greater than 50% chance of losing money.
For a team draft (or team random), $45 could get you 1 team in 1 box. If collation never gave you the same team twice in a box, only 69 of 320 slots would have been winners, with 220 slots getting nothing at all.