10 current players who have the best chance at the HOFER?

[elephantman1237]

Here are my 10:

Pujols
Ichiro
Cabrera
Kershaw
Bumgarner
Trout
Felix
Ortiz
Beltre
McCutcheon

Who am I leaving out?

[babyfaceposey]

Buster Posey

[tkraft24]

I think McCutchen is bound for the 'hall of very good'.

Off the top of my head, Sabathia will be a legitimate candidate for the Hall that wasn't on the list. Carlos Beltran would also be in the discussion.

[corockies]

Bryce Harper
Nolan Arenado
Chris Sale

Most of the players from your list are on track, but it's impossible to predict the future. Only real certainty's are Pujols, Ichiro, and probably Cabrera and Beltre (right now).

[Ottomatic]

Sabathia is back on track now. Beltran has sealed the deal with his amazing year.

David Wright and Chase Utley were should be locks derailed by injury, but if they somehow can play decently into their early 40's you never know.

Longoria and Mauer both guys started strong, now having bounce back years, both have a shot. You just can't predict how guys will age all the time.

I think Yadier Molina and Buster Posey will both make it.

[tkraft24]

Bryce Harper
Nolan Arenado
Chris Sale

Most of the players from your list are on track, but it's impossible to predict the future. Only real certainty's are Pujols, Ichiro, and probably Cabrera and Beltre (right now).

Those guys are way too young to be in the top 10 'best chance to make the hall' list. I think this thread is more geared towards proven veterans that are on track.

[base set]

Feliz?

[Metsfan1121]

Locks
Kershaw
Pujols
Cabrera
Ichiro
Beltre

Probably
Beltran
Ortiz
Posey
Trout
Harper

[Yankees_Pride]

Trout is a no
Who is Feliz. My guess you meant Felix.

Kershaw needs a ring


Beltran
Beltre
Ichiro
Cabrera
Ortiz
Posey
Arod

[seabass97166]

^^^^^ Aroid over Kershaw and Trout...NICE!!

[enbambam6986]

Why does Kershaw need a ring?

[Stech36]

Locks
Kershaw
Pujols
Cabrera
Ichiro
Beltre

Probably
Beltran
Ortiz
Posey
Trout
Harper

Posey and Harper have a lot of work left before they are in, but trout is closer than most people realize. He's probably a lock after next year if there is no decline.

[jrosales]

No list, at this point, should feature Trout, Harper or Bumgarner. They haven't done enough and their careers could flame out tomorrow.

You have to think about players who are near the end of their careers, with the exception being Kershaw, as he's clearly done enough and has been dominant enough to earn enshrinement as soon as he reaches the 10-year mark. Felix Hernandez isn't near the end, but he started at age 19 so I count him.

IMO, the players who will BE IN THE DISCUSSION and possibly be enshrined (I don't necessarily advocate for all of them, but they will at least get votes):

Adrian Beltre (he'll have the counting stats, plus a high-enough WAR score to get in)
Carlos Beltran (I'm not completely sold on him, but he'll get votes for sure and has a large following of people who want him to get in)
Clayton Kershaw (absolutely dominant peak and career so far with 3 CY Awards and an astonishingly low ERA. IMO, he's in once he reaches 10 years in MLB)
Ichiro (no-brainer)
Albert Pujols (no-brainer)
Miguel Cabrera (he's in already, IMO)
Felix Hernandez (he'll have 3,000 Ks, and 230-250 wins. He'll get in IMO)
A-Rod (Not sure if he'll get in, but if steroids lose their stigma, he probably will)
David Ortiz (Not sure if I'd vote for him; I believe Edgar Martinez was the better DH)
CC Sabathia (Don't think he'll get in, but he'll definitely be in the discussion and will get votes, especially if he gets 3,000 Ks)

[elephantman1237]

Feliz?

Auto-correct...Felix.

[seabass97166]

No list, at this point, should feature Trout, Harper or Bumgarner. They haven't done enough and their careers could flame out tomorrow.

You have to think about players who are near the end of their careers, with the exception being Kershaw, as he's clearly done enough and has been dominant enough to earn enshrinement as soon as he reaches the 10-year mark. Felix Hernandez isn't near the end, but he started at age 19 so I count him.

IMO, the players who will BE IN THE DISCUSSION and possibly be enshrined (I don't necessarily advocate for all of them, but they will at least get votes):

Adrian Beltre (he'll have the counting stats, plus a high-enough WAR score to get in)
Carlos Beltran (I'm not completely sold on him, but he'll get votes for sure and has a large following of people who want him to get in)
Clayton Kershaw (absolutely dominant peak and career so far with 3 CY Awards and an astonishingly low ERA. IMO, he's in once he reaches 10 years in MLB)
Ichiro (no-brainer)
Albert Pujols (no-brainer)
Miguel Cabrera (he's in already, IMO)
Felix Hernandez (he'll have 3,000 Ks, and 230-250 wins. He'll get in IMO)
A-Rod (Not sure if he'll get in, but if steroids lose their stigma, he probably will)
David Ortiz (Not sure if I'd vote for him; I believe Edgar Martinez was the better DH)
CC Sabathia (Don't think he'll get in, but he'll definitely be in the discussion and will get votes, especially if he gets 3,000 Ks)

So you think Aroid has a better chance to get in than Trout?
Think again. This is not "if their careers ended today" scenario.

Trout is a mortal lock barring a career ending injury in the next few years.
Aroid has no chance in hell.

[griffan15]

No list, at this point, should feature Trout, Harper or Bumgarner. They haven't done enough and their careers could flame out tomorrow.

You have to think about players who are near the end of their careers, with the exception being Kershaw, as he's clearly done enough and has been dominant enough to earn enshrinement as soon as he reaches the 10-year mark. Felix Hernandez isn't near the end, but he started at age 19 so I count him.

IMO, the players who will BE IN THE DISCUSSION and possibly be enshrined (I don't necessarily advocate for all of them, but they will at least get votes):

Adrian Beltre (he'll have the counting stats, plus a high-enough WAR score to get in)
Carlos Beltran (I'm not completely sold on him, but he'll get votes for sure and has a large following of people who want him to get in)
Clayton Kershaw (absolutely dominant peak and career so far with 3 CY Awards and an astonishingly low ERA. IMO, he's in once he reaches 10 years in MLB)
Ichiro (no-brainer)
Albert Pujols (no-brainer)
Miguel Cabrera (he's in already, IMO)
Felix Hernandez (he'll have 3,000 Ks, and 230-250 wins. He'll get in IMO)
A-Rod (Not sure if he'll get in, but if steroids lose their stigma, he probably will)
David Ortiz (Not sure if I'd vote for him; I believe Edgar Martinez was the better DH)
CC Sabathia (Don't think he'll get in, but he'll definitely be in the discussion and will get votes, especially if he gets 3,000 Ks)



I like this list a lot and obviously the steroid users won't get in, but I believe Cano, Verlander and even Cole Hamels could be added to the list. If you were to add 3 solid seasons to their resumes, they would be approaching HOF numbers and they would still be young enough to play for 2-3 years after that. That is a lot of "what ifs", but players like Sabathia, Beltran and Beltre were in the same boat 3-4 years ago and look what they've done.

No one should be considered if they're under 25, lol. Too many things can happen (injury, PEDs, act of God, etc).


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[griffan15]

So you think Aroid has a better chance to get in than Trout?
Think again. This is not "if their careers ended today" scenario.

Trout is a mortal lock barring a career ending injury in the next few years.
Aroid has no chance in hell.



Ummmm, no. Even if you doubled Trout's career stats, he would have 300 HRs and 1600 hits. Since when is that Hall worthy, even at his age? I agree he has a better shot than A-Rod since he has a zero % chance, but to have Trout as a mortal lock right now is a ridiculous statement.

That being said, I don't see Trout falling off anytime soon and he'll be your mortal lock by the time he's 30.


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[seabass97166]

If I had to bet on the 10 guys most likely to get in at some point:

Kershaw
Trout
Pujols
Ichiro
Cano
Miggy
Ortiz (gut feeling)
Beltre
Posey
Beltran

[hairyharold]

K-Rod and Papelbon any chance? over 400 saves krod close to that for Pap

[seabass97166]

Ummmm, no. Even if you doubled Trout's career stats, he would have 300 HRs and 1600 hits. Since when is that Hall worthy, even at his age? I agree he has a better shot than A-Rod since he has a zero % chance, but to have Trout as a mortal lock right now is a ridiculous statement.

That being said, I don't see Trout falling off anytime soon and he'll be your mortal lock by the time he's 30.


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If you doubled Trouts stats, he'd have higher WAR than any active player except Pujols (and Aroid which doesn't count), and 8 top 2 MVP finishes...and would have been the undisputed best player in MLB (non pitcher) for 8 years.
He's a MORTAL LOCK

When the only criteria of Trout not making it is a career ending injury, I will consider that more likely and a better chance to make it vs somebody else that has questionable stats

[chippv]

These guys are in

Ichiro
Pujols
Ortiz
Felix
Miggy
These guys only time will tell but are on the right path
Harper
Trout
Kershaw
Bumgarner
Cutch

[SethMurphy]

what's "the HOFER"?

[rttrffg2012]

I still say beltre is a long shot, but I wouldn't be against him in.

Arod is not a lock! Everyone hates him. Jeff Kent should be in but everyone hates his guts.

Ortiz is different from Arod because America loved that man.

Two notes:
I'm kind of boycotting the HOF for the handling of the steroid guys: Bonds and McGwire.

[broadway6]

Cutch has a long ways to go before he's in a top 10 IMO.

[jstasyk1121]

i think Cano is the guy who gets really forgotten in these talks...he is having a really awesome career to this point...i think he is like just under the "this guys a lock" category....so far at age 33(12th season):

runs: 1009
hits: 2098
doubles: 462
home runs: 258
rbis: 1036
avg: .307
obp: .355
slg: .497
ops: .853
ops+: 127
WAR: 58.4

6xAS-about to be 7
2xGG
5xSS
0xMVP-does have a stretch where he was top 6 for 5 straight years...4-top 5 finishes

the avg WAR for HOF 2b is just under 70...and he is already at 58+...has a long contract which he might not play em all out but he will be playing atleast another 5 yrs...

when all said and done...wont be too difficult for him to get up around

1500+ in runs/rbis
prob make a run at 3000 hits
400 homers possibly
600+ doubles

[jstasyk1121]

Cutch has a long ways to go before he's in a top 10 IMO.

agree!

[jstasyk1121]

These guys are in

Ichiro
Pujols
Ortiz
Felix
Miggy
These guys only time will tell but are on the right path
Harper
Trout
Kershaw
Bumgarner
Cutch

felix is FAR FAR from a lock at this point....i would put kershaw way ahead of him on the "chances to make it list"...Felix probably needs another 5 years of solid pitching to get close...his win total will never be impressive...hate that all you want but it will matter....so he needs the counting stats and he still has a ways to go...since he "only" has one CY...and no postseason success to get an extra bump...his numbers will have be no doubt to get him in...and he isnt at that level at all right now...

[jrosales]

So you think Aroid has a better chance to get in than Trout?
Think again. This is not "if their careers ended today" scenario.

Trout is a mortal lock barring a career ending injury in the next few years.
Aroid has no chance in hell.

Re-read my post. I didn't say A Rod would get in. I said IF voters come around on steroids, he MAY get in. Also, I said that it's too early to judge on Trout. I can't believe people are already clamoring for him to get in.

[Stech36]

I do always forget about cano, but yeah he should be in.

Trout could hit .250 and average 20 home runs the rest of his career and he's in.

[Skipscards]

Here are my 10:

Pujols - definitely going in without playing another game
Ichiro - definitely going in without playing another game
Cabrera - definitely going in without playing another game
Kershaw - one mediocre season away, after that will just need to avoid becoming a 5-15 pitcher.
Bumgarner - too soon. He's built about half of a HOF career so far.
Trout - way too soon.
Felix - building a nice borderline HOF career, but needs to keep it up for another 5-10 years.
Ortiz - definitely not going in. steroids will keep him out.
Beltre - definitely going in without playing another game.
McCutcheon - way too early. Has built almost half of a HOF career.

Who am I leaving out?

Carlos Beltran - almost a classic borderline HOF case. The 4 players with the most similar careers tell you all you need to know: Winfield, Dwight Evans, Dawson, and Luis Gonzalez. He needs to play another year or two to cross that line to join Dawson and Winfield. If he retired right now, he'd be Evans and Gonzalez.

CC Sabathia - needs to pitch another 5, yes maybe 10 more years. It's possible, but I'd say unlikely. Another guy building a borderline case.

Mauer - getting closer but still short. Needs another 3-5 good seasons or a whole bunch of stat accumulating average seasons.

Utley - I'd keep him out, but he is starting to resemble a Veteran's Committee selection. So, in 50 years? Sure.

Cano - never been a fan, but dang, he is building a HOF career. At this point he could hit .250 for the next 6 seasons and still get into the 3,000 hit club. As much as I hate to say it, he is getting close to a lock.


Rollins - close. Had he stayed in Philly, he probably had a better chance of getting in. Even still, another classic Veterans Committee selection waiting to happen.

Greinke - getting there. Either needs 2 more dominant seasons or a bunch of 10-15 win seasons.

Verlander - close to a lock. Just needs to trudge along with 6-7 more decent/mediocre stat counting seasons. One more dominant season wouldn't hurt.

Colon - since he seems determined to pitch until he's 90 he could conceivably win 1,000 games obliterating Cy Young's record. Look out.

Trout and Harper - waaaaaay too soon. But they should keep it up. :)!

[seabass97166]

These guys are in

Ichiro
Pujols
Ortiz
Felix
Miggy
These guys only time will tell but are on the right path
Harper
Trout
Kershaw
Bumgarner
Cutch

So Felix over Kershaw huh?
Kershaw already has a higher WAR + much more accolades, also 2 years younger, and will likely win another Cy Young this year.

King Felix already lost a lot of velocity on his fastball before the injury. His career can go sideways right now while Kershaw is almost at an all time elite level

[jstasyk1121]

Carlos Beltran - almost a classic borderline HOF case. The 4 players with the most similar careers tell you all you need to know: Winfield, Dwight Evans, Dawson, and Luis Gonzalez. He needs to play another year or two to cross that line to join Dawson and Winfield. If he retired right now, he'd be Evans and Gonzalez.

CC Sabathia - needs to pitch another 5, yes maybe 10 more years. It's possible, but I'd say unlikely. Another guy building a borderline case.

Mauer - getting closer but still short. Needs another 3-5 good seasons or a whole bunch of stat accumulating average seasons.

Utley - I'd keep him out, but he is starting to resemble a Veteran's Committee selection. So, in 50 years? Sure.

Cano - never been a fan, but dang, he is building a HOF career. At this point he could hit .250 for the next 6 seasons and still get into the 3,000 hit club. As much as I hate to say it, he is getting close to a lock.


Rollins - close. Had he stayed in Philly, he probably had a better chance of getting in. Even still, another classic Veterans Committee selection waiting to happen.

Greinke - getting there. Either needs 2 more dominant seasons or a bunch of 10-15 win seasons.

Verlander - close to a lock. Just needs to trudge along with 6-7 more decent/mediocre stat counting seasons. One more dominant season wouldn't hurt.

Colon - since he seems determined to pitch until he's 90 he could conceivably win 1,000 games obliterating Cy Young's record. Look out.

Trout and Harper - waaaaaay too soon. But they should keep it up. :)!

if sabathia somehow pitches 5 more seasons(like full 30 start seasons) he will absolutely make it in...he would have upwards of 275-300 wins and would easily get over 3000k...if he pitched 10 more years he would be a 1st ballot guy!! lol...he would have like 340 wins and 3500k...

that said he will be close cuz i dont think he has 5 more seasons left at all...i didnt think he had 1 more but he has been pretty damn good this year...so if he can finish this year and get 2 more solid seasons of just accumulating some wins/k's i think he might get in after few yrs of gaining votes...

he is at 219W/2630k right now...if he goes another 2.5 years he would prob be around 250-260W/2900-3000k...along with 5 top 5 CY finishes including 1 win...that will be considered pretty solid in this era...

[chippv]

felix is FAR FAR from a lock at this point....i would put kershaw way ahead of him on the "chances to make it list"...Felix probably needs another 5 years of solid pitching to get close...his win total will never be impressive...hate that all you want but it will matter....so he needs the counting stats and he still has a ways to go...since he "only" has one CY...and no postseason success to get an extra bump...his numbers will have be no doubt to get him in...and he isnt at that level at all right now...
It is just an opinion:rolleyes:Sandy kofax stats are pretty similar to Felix stats
So Felix over Kershaw huh?
Kershaw already has a higher WAR + much more accolades, also 2 years younger, and will likely win another Cy Young this year.

King Felix already lost a lot of velocity on his fastball before the injury. His career can go sideways right now while Kershaw is almost at an all time elite level

Kershaw is in year 9 of his career where felix has 12. I based it off of guys that been in the league for a while. I also doubt Kershaw wins the cy young over Arrieta this year unless he has a total collapse.

[Skipscards]

if sabathia somehow pitches 5 more seasons(like full 30 start seasons) he will absolutely make it in...he would have upwards of 275-300 wins and would easily get over 3000k...if he pitched 10 more years he would be a 1st ballot guy!! lol...he would have like 340 wins and 3500k...

that said he will be close cuz i dont think he has 5 more seasons left at all...i didnt think he had 1 more but he has been pretty damn good this year...so if he can finish this year and get 2 more solid seasons of just accumulating some wins/k's i think he might get in after few yrs of gaining votes...

he is at 219W/2630k right now...if he goes another 2.5 years he would prob be around 250-260W/2900-3000k...along with 5 top 5 CY finishes including 1 win...that will be considered pretty solid in this era...
CC's last 3 season win totals have been 14, 3, and 6. That's an average of 7.6. 5 more years at his current established rate gives him 38 more wins taking him to 252 not 275. While 252 is a nice total, he isn't going to be allowed to pitch 5 more years as a 7 win pitcher. Even if he's a servicable starter and wins an average of 10 wins a season, that takes him to 264. Borderline. Even with his current strikeout rate added in, he'd be at 3,174 Ks. That is also not a lock.

He needs every bit of those 5 seasons and maybe even 10 to get in on the Don Sutton path if he can.

[Skipscards]

It is just an opinion:rolleyes:Sandy kofax stats are pretty similar to Felix stats


Kershaw is in year 9 of his career where felix has 12. I based it off of guys that been in the league for a while. I also doubt Kershaw wins the cy young over Arrieta this year unless he has a total collapse.

What?

The only pretty similar stat between Koufax and Hernandez are the number of letters in their first name.

[ThoseBackPages]

you guys realize CC is making 25M a season through next season, right?

Guy is having a good year, but is done.

[elephantman1237]

what's "the HOFER"?

Obviously it was supposed to be "HOF". Trolls gonna troll.

[Ray27Ray52]

Why don't we just let everyone into the Hall while we are it?

[IronMonkey415]

Tim Lincecum

Not sure why no one is dedicating a topic for this LEGEND that is back TODAY. Do I have to do everything around here.

[chippv]

What?

The only pretty similar stat between Koufax and Hernandez are the number of letters in their first name.

Koufax 12 seasons 165 wins 2396 K's 2.76 ERA

Felix 12th season in progress 147 wins 2195 K's 3.11 ERA

They are similar Felix barring injury probably will pitch 8-10 more years

[seabass97166]

I also doubt Kershaw wins the cy young over Arrieta this year unless he has a total collapse.

Kershaw is clearly ahead of Arrieta in the CY Young race right now, just a heads up. More K's (133 vs 7 walks, 19-1 ratio), lower ERA, and a .66 WHIP

[Ray27Ray52]

Koufax 12 seasons 165 wins 2396 K's 2.76 ERA

Felix 12th season in progress 147 wins 2195 K's 3.11 ERA

They are similar Felix barring injury probably will pitch 8-10 more years

Numbers don't tell the story here. Koufax retired at age 30 in his statistical prime. Felix, while a one time stud, is not the horse he used to be.

[ThoseBackPages]

Koufax 12 seasons 165 wins 2396 K's 2.76 ERA

Felix 12th season in progress 147 wins 2195 K's 3.11 ERA

They are similar Felix barring injury probably will pitch 8-10 more years

Im pretty sure nobody's ever confused the two lol

[Technochocolate]

In: Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Beltre, Kershaw, Trout, Harper, Cano, Verlander, Felix.

My reasoning below:

1) Locks:
Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki
Miguel Cabrera
Alex Rodriguez***
ARod obviously has other issues.

2) Probably in, but doesn't deserve to be a lock:
Adrian Beltre
David Ortiz***
Beltre is the new Biggio-like candidate. Ortiz is going to be very lucky his postseason resume is there, because he's not a HoFer based on regular season performance. And of course there's the steroid thing that I think keeps him out.

3) Hall of Very Good and I don't see anything changing it:
Chase Utley
Jimmy Rollins
Carlos Beltran
CC Sabathia
Mark Teixeira
David Wright
Joe Mauer
Ryan Braun
Yadier Molina
All short and I don't see anyone here capable of performing highly enough to move the needle. Braun might but he's got other issues.

4) Will be in if they compile stats at a reasonable rate:
Robinson Cano
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
I think all 3 have shown enough in their peak performance to merit consideration. All probably need to continue piling at an all-star rate for a few more years to be sure.

5) Obviously in if they keep up current pace:
Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner will be this generations' David Ortiz, taking a Hall of Very Good resume and turning it into a HoF resume with postseason performance.

6) Just way too early to even project:
Andrew McCutchen
Paul Goldschmidt
Anthony Rizzo
Chris Sale
Buster Posey
Manny Machado
All of them have shown a peak worthy of HoFness, but just need to keep on keeping on.

7) Hall of Very Good, but there's time:
Zack Greinke
Jake Arreita
David Price
Max Scherzer
Joey Votto
Josh Donaldson
All these guys are pretty clearly short right now, but are still more or less in their primes (maybe stretching it on Votto). More peak seasons could enter them into the discussion.

8) everyone else:
Everyone else not listed yet probably needs to show a higher peak in order to get on the HoF radar.

9) Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant

[chippv]

Numbers don't tell the story here. Koufax retired at age 30 in his statistical prime. Felix, while a one time stud, is not the horse he used to be.

true.... I would think he would hit at least 3000 k's which usually puts a pitcher in.

[Skipscards]

Koufax 12 seasons 165 wins 2396 K's 2.76 ERA

Felix 12th season in progress 147 wins 2195 K's 3.11 ERA

They are similar Felix barring injury probably will pitch 8-10 more years

That's not similar. Just looking at those totals there is no debate which one is significantly better. It also misses theses other numbers of these "similar" pitchers:

Koufax: 4 No Hitters, led the league in ERA 5 consecutive seasons, 3 World Championships (4 World Series), 2 World Series MVPs, and 0.95 ERA in the World Series, all in an era when only 1 team from each league made the postseason.

Felix: 1 No Hitter, led the leage in ERA twice, 0 postseason appearances when nearly every team makes the postseason.

[Big35Hurt]

No list, at this point, should feature Trout, Harper or Bumgarner. They haven't done enough and their careers could flame out tomorrow.



Some would argue that this has already happened. :D

[jmscoggin]

All I have to say is thank the Babe that most of you don't have voting privileges.

[enbambam6986]

Colon - since he seems determined to pitch until he's 90 he could conceivably win 1,000 games obliterating Cy Young's record. Look out.


19 wins away from having the most from a Dominican player (already passed Pedro and is about to pass Marichal)

[jmscoggin]

19 wins away from having the most from a Dominican player (already passed Pedro and is about to pass Marichal)

Proven cheater and anyone with a brain would have to think he's a current cheater as well. No, just no.

[griffan15]

These guys are in



Ichiro

Pujols

Ortiz

Felix

Miggy

These guys only time will tell but are on the right path

Harper

Trout

Kershaw

Bumgarner

Cutch



Where's Beltre? He's a 90% lock at this point


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[jmscoggin]

Where's Beltre? He's a 90% lock at this point.

Anyone that thinks that Beltre is anything less than a 100% lock has no credibility in this conversation. On defense alone he's in the conversation and he's likely to also add two huge offensive milestones in the near future, 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. Even if he comes up short of those and he retired today, he is still the 5th best 3rd baseman of all time according to Jaws. I bet Cooperstown already has the bust made and it's just sitting in a back room waiting for the inevitable.

[Skipscards]

Proven cheater and anyone with a brain would have to think he's a current cheater as well. No, just no.

Was he ever implicated with PEDs?

[Skipscards]

Anyone that thinks that Beltre is anything less than a 100% lock has no credibility in this conversation. On defense alone he's in the conversation and he's likely to also add two huge offensive milestones in the near future, 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. Even if he comes up short of those and he retired today, he is still the 5th best 3rd baseman of all time according to Jaws. I bet Cooperstown already has the bust made and it's just sitting in a back room waiting for the inevitable.

This.

[jmscoggin]

Was he ever implicated with PEDs?

RHP Bartolo Colon of Oakland Athletics suspended 50 games for violating MLB's drug policy (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8292935/rhp-bartolo-colon-oakland-athletics-suspended-50-games-violating-mlb-drug-policy)

"I apologize to the fans, to my teammates and to the Oakland A's," Colon said in a statement released by the players' association. "I accept responsibility for my actions and I will serve my suspension as required by the joint drug program."

[Skipscards]

RHP Bartolo Colon of Oakland Athletics suspended 50 games for violating MLB's drug policy (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8292935/rhp-bartolo-colon-oakland-athletics-suspended-50-games-violating-mlb-drug-policy)

"I apologize to the fans, to my teammates and to the Oakland A's," Colon said in a statement released by the players' association. "I accept responsibility for my actions and I will serve my suspension as required by the joint drug program."

Lol! I thought you were talking about Sabathia!

[jmscoggin]

Lol! I thought you were talking about Sabathia!

Nope but that wouldn't surprise me either. To be honest, there isn't one single player where it would surprise me and that is sad.

[Wolves4Life]

If Ortiz gets in, You better let the suspected PED users in as well. No proof on Sosa yet he's being shunned, Ortiz shouldn't get in either if Sosa doesn't.

[Skipscards]

Nope but that wouldn't surprise me either. To be honest, there isn't one single player where it would surprise me and that is sad.

In my defense they're both fat.

[Skipscards]

If Ortiz gets in, You better let the suspected PED users in as well. No proof on Sosa yet he's being shunned, Ortiz shouldn't get in either if Sosa doesn't.

Uh, Sammy did fail a test. He was on the list of 104...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/sports/baseball/17doping.html?_r=0

...but I agree, Ortiz ain't going near the Hall.

[jstasyk1121]

Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner will be this generations' David Ortiz, taking a Hall of Very Good resume and turning it into a HoF resume with postseason performance.


this is just insane....

not like he is just some nobody in the reg season....he is 26 years old!!!!

he is getting better every single year almost across the board stat wise...did i mention he is 26 and already closing in on 100wins...a sub-3.00 career era...1200+ strikeouts

you could erase his postseason stats altogether and he would still be in the midst of building a HOF career...the postseason greatness is just gonna give him a higher % of votes...not be the deciding factor if he gets in...

he has been awesome as a reg.season pitcher...

he has improved everything year after year like i said too...his k-rate has gone up for like 4-5 seasons straight...his bb-rate has always been great...his era has never been over 3.37 in any season so far...and he is off to a great start this year so far with a overshadowed 1.91era 8W 107k/94inn...

to be fair...i think saying that about ortiz is also foolish...

guy with 1400r, 2400h, 600dbl, 520hr, 1700rbi, .286avg, .379obp, .552slg, .930ops, 141ops+...and you say that if he gets in it will be cuz his postseason play puts him in...and that he only had a good reg.season career...laughable..that is a HOF resume regardless of position or postseason play...atleast in my opinion it is...

[Wolves4Life]

Uh, Sammy did fail a test. He was on the list of 104...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/sports/baseball/17doping.html?_r=0

...but I agree, Ortiz ain't going near the Hall.

I don't believe that test at all. MLB used the Mitchell Report as THE test to keep people out of the Hall and Sosa was not even on that list.

[Skipscards]

I don't believe that test at all. MLB used the Mitchell Report as THE test to keep people out of the Hall and Sosa was not even on that list.

Fortunately your belief is not required. The test happened, he failed it, case closed.

[enbambam6986]

Proven cheater and anyone with a brain would have to think he's a current cheater as well. No, just no.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/3d/77/4f/3d774f88a328faff80031846209ce757.jpg

Someone is jealous that Bart is a better athlete then them

[Skipscards]

Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner will be this generations' David Ortiz, taking a Hall of Very Good resume and turning it into a HoF resume with postseason performance.


this is just insane....

not like he is just some nobody in the reg season....he is 26 years old!!!!

he is getting better every single year almost across the board stat wise...did i mention he is 26 and already closing in on 100wins...a sub-3.00 career era...1200+ strikeouts

you could erase his postseason stats altogether and he would still be in the midst of building a HOF career...the postseason greatness is just gonna give him a higher % of votes...not be the deciding factor if he gets in...

he has been awesome as a reg.season pitcher...

he has improved everything year after year like i said too...his k-rate has gone up for like 4-5 seasons straight...his bb-rate has always been great...his era has never been over 3.37 in any season so far...and he is off to a great start this year so far with a overshadowed 1.91era 8W 107k/94inn...

to be fair...i think saying that about ortiz is also foolish...

guy with 1400r, 2400h, 600dbl, 520hr, 1700rbi, .286avg, .379obp, .552slg, .930ops, 141ops+...and you say that if he gets in it will be cuz his postseason play puts him in...and that he only had a good reg.season career...laughable..that is a HOF resume regardless of position or postseason play...atleast in my opinion it is...

Agreed for the most part. Like I said, Bumgarner has built half of a HOF career. Just needs to stay healthy and reasonably effective.

Ortiz' issue is 100% PEDs. So far that renders the numbers irrelevant. Heck, Palmerio had even better numbers and couldn't keep 5% to stay on the ballot.

[Wrightfan85]

Ichiro
Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Kershaw
Beltre
Arod
Beltran
David Ortiz
Utley (yuck)
Cano

[seabass97166]

News Bulletin: A-Rod has no shot

[razorsharp]

The lack of talk for Sabathia is pretty surprising to me.

He is a lot closer than you think, imo.

He is going to get in if he can get to 250 wins (31 away) and over 3,000 strikeouts (370 away).

[Skipscards]

The lack of talk for Sabathia is pretty surprising to me.

He is a lot closer than you think, imo.

He is going to get in if he can get to 250 wins (31 away) and over 3,000 strikeouts (370 away).

Neither of those are certainies and neither of those make him a lock.

[Wolves4Life]

Fortunately your belief is not required. The test happened, he failed it, case closed.

No legit proof.

[razorsharp]

Neither of those are certainies and neither of those make him a lock.

He is an absolute lock if he gets both of those.

[razorsharp]

CC Sabathia Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml)

Look how close he already is. Considering it seems like he is having a career resurgence this season, he is most definitely in the top 10 of current players with the best chance.

[razorsharp]

Yankees' CC Sabathia suddenly back on Hall of Fame track | NJ.com (http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2016/06/yankees_cc_sabathia_suddenly_back_on_hall_of_fame.html)

Points out the great case. This is not some compiler. CC has won a CY Young, lead the league in wins twice, won a World Series in which he was great and is a 6 time (probably now 7) All Star.

For a decade, Sabathia's eventual place in Cooperstown didn't seem like much of a debate. From 2003-2012, the Indians, Brewers and Yankees ace won 161 games, owned a 3.34 ERA, 130 ERA+ and racked up 2,174 innings. By WAR, Sabathia (48.0) was the second-most valuable pitcher in baseball, trailing only ex-Blue Jays and Phillies star Roy Halladay (55.9)—a future Hall of Famer himself.

Sabathia (at the age of 35) has a higher career WAR than Whitey Ford, more wins than Don Drysdale, has thrown more innings than Pedro Martinez and Lefty Gomez, and owns a better adjusted ERA than Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton. What do all those pitchers have in common? They're all in the Hall of Fame.

[Ray27Ray52]

No legit proof.

I see you are back posting gibberish. There is no conceivable way that anyone could make a case that Sosa and his statistics are legit. You are either a world class troll, someone who enjoys being contrary because he likes to argue, or do not have a fully functioning brain.

[Stech36]

Yankees' CC Sabathia suddenly back on Hall of Fame track | NJ.com (http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2016/06/yankees_cc_sabathia_suddenly_back_on_hall_of_fame.html)

Points out the great case. This is not some compiler. CC has won a CY Young, lead the league in wins twice, won a World Series in which he was great and is a 6 time (probably now 7) All Star.

For a decade, Sabathia's eventual place in Cooperstown didn't seem like much of a debate. From 2003-2012, the Indians, Brewers and Yankees ace won 161 games, owned a 3.34 ERA, 130 ERA+ and racked up 2,174 innings. By WAR, Sabathia (48.0) was the second-most valuable pitcher in baseball, trailing only ex-Blue Jays and Phillies star Roy Halladay (55.9)—a future Hall of Famer himself.

Sabathia (at the age of 35) has a higher career WAR than Whitey Ford, more wins than Don Drysdale, has thrown more innings than Pedro Martinez and Lefty Gomez, and owns a better adjusted ERA than Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton. What do all those pitchers have in common? They're all in the Hall of Fame.


Brings up an interesting point about halladay. Amazing peak but short career

[Skipscards]

No legit proof.
You mean aside from failing a drug test for performance enhancing drugs? Yeah, ok.
I see you are back posting gibberish. There is no conceivable way that anyone could make a case that Sosa and his statistics are legit. You are either a world class troll, someone who enjoys being contrary because he likes to argue, or do not have a fully functioning brain.

This. All of this.

[Technochocolate]

Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner will be this generations' David Ortiz, taking a Hall of Very Good resume and turning it into a HoF resume with postseason performance.


this is just insane....

not like he is just some nobody in the reg season....he is 26 years old!!!!

he is getting better every single year almost across the board stat wise...did i mention he is 26 and already closing in on 100wins...a sub-3.00 career era...1200+ strikeouts

you could erase his postseason stats altogether and he would still be in the midst of building a HOF career...the postseason greatness is just gonna give him a higher % of votes...not be the deciding factor if he gets in...

he has been awesome as a reg.season pitcher...

he has improved everything year after year like i said too...his k-rate has gone up for like 4-5 seasons straight...his bb-rate has always been great...his era has never been over 3.37 in any season so far...and he is off to a great start this year so far with a overshadowed 1.91era 8W 107k/94inn...

to be fair...i think saying that about ortiz is also foolish...

guy with 1400r, 2400h, 600dbl, 520hr, 1700rbi, .286avg, .379obp, .552slg, .930ops, 141ops+...and you say that if he gets in it will be cuz his postseason play puts him in...and that he only had a good reg.season career...laughable..that is a HOF resume regardless of position or postseason play...atleast in my opinion it is...

Ok after further study I retract on Bumgarner, I can buy that argument. I guess it doesn't help that I don't really identify him as THE best in the game at any time in the past few years, except for those postseasons. But those standards are probably too harsh for starters.

I stand by Ortiz.....he's a compiler, first off, which isn't a bad thing in itself. But if you're a compiler, you better be someone who stands out at your position. Beltre at 3B, Biggio at 2B, they were compilers but stand out among their positions. There's 10 better 1B/DH types from this era I'd rather take over Ortiz. I can find several of them who would've put up Ortiz-like numbers in Boston's offense during the '00s.

[Skipscards]

He is an absolute lock if he gets both of those.

Let me know when he gets both. I'm not going to get too excited over 11 decent starts after 3 seasons of schlock. There are plenty of 250 win pitchers not in the Hall. I will grant you 3,000 ks is impressive. So far only Clemens and Schilling haven't gotten in with 3,000. But at his current rate he's 4 seasons away from getting there.

Not impossible. But he's a long way away. If he retired today he'd be Tim Hudson/Dwight Gooden. Not bad but not a HOFer.

[Wolves4Life]

You mean aside from failing a drug test for performance enhancing drugs? Yeah, ok.


This. All of this.

I bet that same person would try and say Ortiz is a HOF'er though. Which is more laughable.

[Skipscards]

I bet that same person would try and say Ortiz is a HOF'er though. Which is more laughable.

Well, just as laughable. To get in, Ortiz will be buying a ticket just like Sosa and you and me.

[Wolves4Life]

I see you are back posting gibberish. There is no conceivable way that anyone could make a case that Sosa and his statistics are legit. You are either a world class troll, someone who enjoys being contrary because he likes to argue, or do not have a fully functioning brain.

You resort to insulting people when you can't make a real argument. Sad.

[broadway6]

i'm sure he will not get in... but Yadi Molina has a chance.

[Skipscards]

i'm sure he will not get in... but Yadi Molina has a chance.

Forgot all about him. Though he's not there yet, he is definitely got a shot. Star catcher on two World Championship teams will get him lots of votes. I give him a good shot at making it.

[Ray27Ray52]

You resort to insulting people when you can't make a real argument. Sad.

There is nothing to argue. Your idiocy is unquestionable.

[Ottomatic]

Brings up an interesting point about halladay. Amazing peak but short career

Yeah Halladay is a 100% lock. I value a dominant peak over compiiling numbers. Though both can be impressive at times. You have to evaluate each player on a case by case basis.

[88horsepower]

There is nothing to argue. Your idiocy is unquestionable.

Amen to that. If Blowout had a WAR stat, I wonder where Wolfie would rank.:coffee:

[seabass97166]

Not only did Sosa use PEDs..he corked his bat.

[seabass97166]

Not only did Sosa use PEDs..he corked his bat.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WrXVdwIGfuI

[BostonNut]

I've never heard David Ortiz be described as a compiler before. That is definitely a first.

I mean...as a DH...isn't it your job to compile batting stats? What am I missing?

And please list the 10 DH's who have bested Ortiz during his career. Can't wait to see that list.

[Skipscards]

I've never heard David Ortiz be described as a compiler before. That is definitely a first.

I mean...as a DH...isn't it your job to compile batting stats? What am I missing?

And please list the 10 DH's who have bested Ortiz during his career. Can't wait to see that list.

Any 10 random clean ones. ;-)

[Skipscards]

Yeah Halladay is a 100% lock. I value a dominant peak over compiiling numbers. Though both can be impressive at times. You have to evaluate each player on a case by case basis.

He's far from a lock. He will be hotly debated when he comes up but I see a long slog on the ballot for him. He was great, yes, but to me there's not a ton of difference between him and Dwight Gooden and I suspect a lot of voters will think similarly. One thing is certain it will be a fascinating debate.

[base set]

This thread should be a Sticky.

[Skipscards]

This thread should be a Sticky.

Yeah, I love these discussions/debates. I know we must have a gazillion threads like this but man is it fun.

[Ottomatic]

He's far from a lock. He will be hotly debated when he comes up but I see a long slog on the ballot for him. He was great, yes, but to me there's not a ton of difference between him and Dwight Gooden and I suspect a lot of voters will think similarly. One thing is certain it will be a fascinating debate.

Guaranteed 100% lock. I don't have anything to say just wait until voting comes around. Halladay will be in the hall and should be 1st ballot.

[Skipscards]

Guaranteed 100% lock. I don't have anything to say just wait until voting comes around. Halladay will be in the hall and should be 1st ballot.

Fair enough. We shall see. But as certain as you are that he's 100% lock, that's how certain I am he won't go in on the first ballot.

Here are the 10 most similar pitchers in history to Roy Halladay:

1. Dwight Gooden (920)
2. Ron Guidry (898)
3. Jimmy Key (894)
4. Dazzy Vance (890) *
5. Roy Oswalt (887)
6. Bret Saberhagen (883)
7. Tim Hudson (882)
8. Lon Warneke (880)
9. Urban Shocker (878)
10. Dave McNally (876)

That is a list of 9 mighty fine pitchers and 1 Hall of Famer who got in on like his 15th ballot. Some of these guys are likely to make it one day but all of them are at best on the borderline, just outside immortality.

[jrosales]

Guaranteed 100% lock. I don't have anything to say just wait until voting comes around. Halladay will be in the hall and should be 1st ballot.

I don't think he's a 100% lock. He had a nice career, and I might put him in if I were a voter (I go back and forth on him), but he didn't have a Pedro Martinez-like peak.

Pros:
*.659 winning percentage
*2 CY awards
*2 no-hitters, including a perfect game
*8 All-Star selections
*Workhorse who pitched a lot of innings
*WAR of around 65 (around average-to-good for a HOF pitcher...at least among those who belong and who aren't thought of as mistakes)
* 3 20-win seasons
*Good black/gray ink scores, and good HOF Monitor/HOF Standards scores

Cons:
*Barely over 200 wins
*Barely over 2,000 Ks (a pitcher who was dominant over a career of a similar length should have close to, if not over, 3,000 Ks)
*ERA near 3.40
*Received MVP votes in only 2 years, finishing as high as 6th
*Of his 10 most-similar pitchers, only one is a HOFer (Dazzy Vance, an okay selection who was an all-star level player but never really a huge star)

He has a pretty good case, and like I said, I go back and forth on him. He wouldn't be the worst pitcher in the HOF, but let's not kid ourselves: he's more a middle-of-the-pack or lower-tier HOFer than in the class of Mathewson, Koufax, Pedro, etc.

I just don't see how he's a 100% lock. If he gets in, I think it'll be with barely over 75% of the vote.

[mfw13]

My list only includes players with at least FIVE full seasons in the majors, so no Trout or Harper yet...

Pujols - obvious
Cabrera - obvious
Ichiro - obvious
Beltre - guy who sneaks up on you
Kershaw - probably going to win his 4th Cy Young this year, in addition to 2nd and 3rd place finishes as well
Bumgarner - postseason heroics aside, is strong and steady and probably the least likely pitcher in the game to suffer an arm injury that would derail his career
Posey - three rings & an MVP, and the best at his position of his generation
Felix- just has to stay healthy...he'll have the numbers if he does, but has not been the same guy in 2015/2016 that he was earlier in his career

[Technochocolate]

I've never heard David Ortiz be described as a compiler before. That is definitely a first.

I mean...as a DH...isn't it your job to compile batting stats? What am I missing?

And please list the 10 DH's who have bested Ortiz during his career. Can't wait to see that list.

I'm counting 1B along with DH for Ortiz since that was my original claim...as a pure DH Ortiz is higher, but then the standards for the HOF rise accordingly.

for sure: Bagwell
Thomas
Thome
Pujols
McGwire
Helton

I'm also taking Konerko over him. I also want to make the argument for Giambi but I know he didn't last as long.

Ok I have Ortiz 9th behind the 8th above. In the top 10. My bad. But right behind him are Palmeiro, Delgado. And there's plenty of solid players (Lee, Sweeney, etc etc) who obviously aren't as good but provided solid production at the position. Ortiz simply didn't stand out among his peers.

I'm sorry, but I've got a real issue putting a player in the HoF who was nbo more than a top 10 player at his position over a 20-year period. I need a pretty big exception for that. Granted, Ortiz has that with the postseason.

edit: I forgot Edgar Martinez. I'm taking him as a pure hitter over Ortiz too.

[Ottomatic]

I don't think he's a 100% lock. He had a nice career, and I might put him in if I were a voter (I go back and forth on him), but he didn't have a Pedro Martinez-like peak.

Pros:
*.659 winning percentage
*2 CY awards
*2 no-hitters, including a perfect game
*8 All-Star selections
*Workhorse who pitched a lot of innings
*WAR of around 65 (around average-to-good for a HOF pitcher...at least among those who belong and who aren't thought of as mistakes)
* 3 20-win seasons
*Good black/gray ink scores, and good HOF Monitor/HOF Standards scores

Cons:
*Barely over 200 wins
*Barely over 2,000 Ks (a pitcher who was dominant over a career of a similar length should have close to, if not over, 3,000 Ks)
*ERA near 3.40
*Received MVP votes in only 2 years, finishing as high as 6th
*Of his 10 most-similar pitchers, only one is a HOFer (Dazzy Vance, an okay selection who was an all-star level player but never really a huge star)

He has a pretty good case, and like I said, I go back and forth on him. He wouldn't be the worst pitcher in the HOF, but let's not kid ourselves: he's more a middle-of-the-pack or lower-tier HOFer than in the class of Mathewson, Koufax, Pedro, etc.

I just don't see how he's a 100% lock. If he gets in, I think it'll be with barely over 75% of the vote.

He has enough WAR, an excellent peak despie playing in a tough division most of his career, has a perfect game and a playoff no hitter. I will guarantee you he will get in, it's not even a debate.

[BostonNut]

Those guys hardly played during Ortiz' career...

And you did not address the "compiler" comment.

I'm counting 1B along with DH for Ortiz since that was my original claim...as a pure DH Ortiz is higher, but then the standards for the HOF rise accordingly.

for sure: Bagwell
Thomas
Thome
Pujols
McGwire
Helton

I'm also taking Konerko over him. I also want to make the argument for Giambi but I know he didn't last as long.

Ok I have Ortiz 9th behind the 8th above. In the top 10. My bad. But right behind him are Palmeiro, Delgado. And there's plenty of solid players (Lee, Sweeney, etc etc) who obviously aren't as good but provided solid production at the position. Ortiz simply didn't stand out among his peers.

I'm sorry, but I've got a real issue putting a player in the HoF who was nbo more than a top 10 player at his position over a 20-year period. I need a pretty big exception for that. Granted, Ortiz has that with the postseason.

edit: I forgot Edgar Martinez. I'm taking him as a pure hitter over Ortiz too.

[Skipscards]

He has enough WAR, an excellent peak despie playing in a tough division most of his career, has a perfect game and a playoff no hitter. I will guarantee you he will get in, it's not even a debate.

Well, it's clearly a debate. That's what we're doing; debating.

[Ottomatic]

Well, it's clearly a debate. That's what we're doing; debating.

True, but you guys are wrong :cool: LOL. I'm sorry I respect your viewpoint, I'm just saying he will definitely be in, to the point where I just say wait until he's voted in, nothing more for me to say. There are borderline candidates then there is Roy Halladay.

Now if he doesn't get in the hall is a joke (some could argue it already is).

[Technochocolate]

Those guys hardly played during Ortiz' career...

And you did not address the "compiler" comment.

What are we defining as the era of comparison then? When it comes to the HoF, don't we have to consider more than a few years? Do we need to just compare Ortiz' peak (03-07ish, give or take) to other 1B/DH those years? Because that's too narrow.

"Compiler" isn't necessarily a bad thing. But too many of his numbers have come outside of his peak. His RBI/run totals are inflated thanks to the team he plays for (which is a credit to the team). And once you get past about 2007, he's an above-average DH, but not so much more valuable than league average. To me, a compiler is simply an above-average player who happens to build up big numbers just for being in the right situation where a replacement doesn't come along to take your job.

[Ottomatic]

My main thin with Halladay is... If you don't vote him in, then what modern pitchers get in? Are we going to stop allowing them because they don't throw 300 innings and winning 300 games like old pitchers? No. If Halladay isn't a HOFer you are basically saying Kershaw is the only modern pitcher that has pitched like a HOFer. He's a HOfer.

[Stat Monsters]

Jeff Kent should be in but everyone hates his guts.


So true!

[BostonNut]

What are we defining as the era of comparison then? When it comes to the HoF, don't we have to consider more than a few years? Do we need to just compare Ortiz' peak (03-07ish, give or take) to other 1B/DH those years? Because that's too narrow.

"Compiler" isn't necessarily a bad thing. But too many of his numbers have come outside of his peak. His RBI/run totals are inflated thanks to the team he plays for (which is a credit to the team). And once you get past about 2007, he's an above-average DH, but not so much more valuable than league average. To me, a compiler is simply an above-average player who happens to build up big numbers just for being in the right situation where a replacement doesn't come along to take your job.

The Red Sox have built their lineup around Ortiz since 2004.

If that is how you describe a compiler then you have unrealistic expectations...

[VeedonFleece]

Not going to get into an argument (at least not yet) but I see a lot of pitchers being described as 'a lock' or close to it. I disagree with every single one of them with the exception of Kershaw.

If/when Schilling and Mussina make it, I may change my mind.

[Technochocolate]

The Red Sox have built their lineup around Ortiz since 2004.

If that is how you describe a compiler then you have unrealistic expectations...

Maybe that's why once Ortiz left his peak ('07), the Sox didn't win a title, until '13. :p

And, well, this is the HOF we're talking about. Expectations are high. I'm gladly take Ortiz' production in a vacuum, but if we're talking HOF in a very crowded 1B/DH pool, we have to nitpick a bit.

[jrosales]

He has enough WAR, an excellent peak despie playing in a tough division most of his career, has a perfect game and a playoff no hitter. I will guarantee you he will get in, it's not even a debate.

Actually, it is a debate. Otherwise, you wouldn't be discussing it with me and a few others on here :)!

[jrosales]

True, but you guys are wrong :cool: LOL. I'm sorry I respect your viewpoint, I'm just saying he will definitely be in, to the point where I just say wait until he's voted in, nothing more for me to say. There are borderline candidates then there is Roy Halladay.

Now if he doesn't get in the hall is a joke (some could argue it already is).

How can you say that we're wrong when 1). YOU'RE not one of the voters; 2). You can't see into the future and know for sure that he's a lock; and 3). We're all (even you) giving our input as to why we think he will/won't be a first-ballot HOFer?

You can say that you disagree with us; that's fine. But when you say that we're wrong and you're right, without knowing the actual outcome, that's very short-sighted on your part.

[rats60]

Pujols
Beltre
Cabrera
Ichiro
Kershaw

Beltran
Utley
Halladay
Cano
Sabathia

Top 5 will be in. Next 5 have work to do.

[BostonNut]

Pujols
Beltre
Cabrera
Ichiro
Kershaw

Beltran
Utley
Halladay
Cano
Sabathia

Top 5 will be in. Next 5 have work to do.

You'll have to explain the kind of work he will be able to do in order to get in. :doh:

[emilydan]

Agree with a lot of the above selections - for awhile though I thought Matt Holliday had an outside chance - but, unfortunately, I think the last few years with all the injuries did him in....

[88horsepower]

My main thin with Halladay is... If you don't vote him in, then what modern pitchers get in? Are we going to stop allowing them because they don't throw 300 innings and winning 300 games like old pitchers? No. If Halladay isn't a HOFer you are basically saying Kershaw is the only modern pitcher that has pitched like a HOFer. He's a HOfer.

You see, this is my problem with the current NFL HOF standards for running backs. Gone are the days where guys are bellcows who rush for 14,000 yards sans for the very, very rare exception like perhaps Adrian Peterson. So, does the HOF lower the standard to meet how the game is currently played?

For baseball, there are a few guys I can think of who are exceptional pitchers who will probably never sniff 300 wins. Halladay was such a force and has barely 200 wins and 2,000 K's. Personally, I think he's worthy of Cooperstown, but he's nowhere near the typical milestones associated with modern day HOF pitchers.

[Skipscards]

My main thin with Halladay is... If you don't vote him in, then what modern pitchers get in? Are we going to stop allowing them because they don't throw 300 innings and winning 300 games like old pitchers? No. If Halladay isn't a HOFer you are basically saying Kershaw is the only modern pitcher that has pitched like a HOFer. He's a HOfer.

You see, this is my problem with the current NFL HOF standards for running backs. Gone are the days where guys are bellcows who rush for 14,000 yards sans for the very, very rare exception like perhaps Adrian Peterson. So, does the HOF lower the standard to meet how the game is currently played?

For baseball, there are a few guys I can think of who are exceptional pitchers who will probably never sniff 300 wins. Halladay was such a force and has barely 200 wins and 2,000 K's. Personally, I think he's worthy of Cooperstown, but he's nowhere near the typical milestones associated with modern day HOF pitchers.

Now here are some valid points. The reality is there are Hall of Famers pitching in the majors right now. (And not just Kershaw). The HOF has certain standards but in the end it tends to represent the very best each era has to offer. I am not convinced we've seen the last 300 game winner, and ir certainly seems like there will be fewer. But this is already a natural adjustment the Hall makes. Voters get old and die, the new voters vote for the players they witnessed. In some ways the standards lower over time (no one is expecting 25 CGs a year, for example) and sometimes they go up (no one is going in with 1,000 Ks [Stan Coveleski had 981]). But every era gets represented (some get over-represented). Yes, often it takes the Veterans Committee to assist, but in the end 1-2% of the players who have ever played have made it to the Hall of Fame.

Let's look at HOF pitchers by decade:
(Based soley on their first season)
1870s 4
1880s 5
1890s 8
1900s 8
1910s 9
1920s 4
1930s 5
1940s 4
1950s 6
1960s 11
1970s 4
1980s 4
1990s 1

So, there's an average of 6 HOFers starting their career every decade. As the deadball era and 60s seem to have an over-representation, let's lower the average to 5. (I'm sure the Veterans Committee will get around to finding a 5th HOFer from the 70s and 80s. Don't worry Jack, there's hope for you yet! But I digress.).

What does this mean? It means two interesting things: 1. There is an average of one Rookie every other year starting his Hall of Fame career. And 2. I've forgotten where I was going with this...oh yeah, #2. There are likely 5 active HOF pitchers pitching right now this season! Bear in mind 1 or 2 of them are likely so early in their career you won't see them coming. But 2 or 3 are likely right there in the open for us to see. Maybe not locks but they exist. Here's where I'm going to lose some of you (well any of you who are still reading anyway)...I'm going to use the overused and much maligned stat WAR to see if we can find who our most likely HOFers are. (Note, while I concur the stat is waay overused, it can be useful as one dimension among many. WAR does not a HOFer make, but it is a handy way to place a value on a career. Personally I prefer Win Shares, but since WAR is more, um, common, we'll use that).

So, here are the Active pitching leaders in WAR. While none are officially locks, (a lot of people view 60 as a minimum threshhold. Rick Rueschel would like to disagree.), there are probably 2 HOFers on this list none of which have even crossed 60 by the way. Years of service and age in parenthesis:

1. Sabathia (16 years, 35 years old)
2. Kershaw (9, 28)
3. Felix (12, 30)
4. Greinke (13, 32)
5. Colon (19, 83)
6. Hamels (11, 32)
7. Verlander (12, 33)
8. Lester (11, 32)

Now, if there are 2 HOFers on that list, then there are 6 that are likely never going to make it. Pick any 2 you like. There are arguments and justifications for each one but history says they aren't all HOFers. My 2 from this list are Kershaw and Verlander (though I'd like Greinke to sneak in too). But I could be wrong. My point isn't which 2 make it, it's the reality that 6 probably won't. (And if you think Papelbon or KRod or Wade Davis will make it one day well, well, you can see how complicated this can get).

Wow, I really went off on a tangent there. Tying it back to Halladay...1 pitcher who began in the 90s is in (Pedro). That means there is likely room for just 4 others. Was Halladay one of the 5 best pitchers among every starter who began their career in the 90s? Maybe. Of the pitchers from the 90s here are the locks: Pedro, Mariano, and Mussina. Then the final (let's call it) 2 spots will be a fight between: Halladay, Tim Hudson, Hoffman, and Wagner (before you say Pettitte, I say the voters will have to induct the other cheaters which they don't appear to be doing any time soon). It is possible the 90s could be a decade that gave us 6 but all these guys ain't likely gonna make it.

He's not a lock and he is definitely not going in on the first ballot, but personally I'd put Halladay in. I actually see him making it eventually. Just keep in mind, I am a big Hall guy, so take my perspective with a grain of salt.

Oh, and forgive any typos...it's late. :)!

[VeedonFleece]

Pleased to see you describe Moose as a lock, Skip, but thus far the BBWAA dont share our opinion.

Fwiw, of the guys you list as 'fighting it out for two spots,' only Halladay and Hoffman have a chance imo. Wouldnt surprise me if neither made it though.

[PejaD]

1st Ballot:
Pujols
Ichiro
Miggy
Kershaw

May have to wait, but BBWA will vote them in:
Big Papi
Beltre
Beltran
Cano
Yadi

Eventually gets in, but probably not in his lifetime:
A-Rod

It is interesting there are so few Americans on this short list. I wonder if the current system favors LatAm players since they tend to get more advanced exp at an earlier age (able to sign at 16, generally don't attend college, etc).

[jmscoggin]

Good arguments could be made both for and against Halladay. Personally I'd put him in but it wouldn't break my heart if he doesn't make it either.

A-hole or not, Kent should have been in years ago.

I've never heard of nor thought of Ortiz as a "compiler". Cheater yes, compiler no. Had he played his whole career clean, I would say he's a slam dunk for enshrinement but only the very, very naive believe that he did so. In fact, I'd bet you he's currently hopped up on more ped's than the average Mexican pharmacy keeps in stock so that he can go out with a bang. No way he's doing what he's doing on pure natural talent, especially not at 40 years old.

Some day voters will allow in the cheaters, at that point Ortiz, Bonds, A-Rod, Clemens, Palmeiro etc will have their day but that day isn't now and won't be tomorrow.

[mfw13]

Now here are some valid points. The reality is there are Hall of Famers pitching in the majors right now. (And not just Kershaw). The HOF has certain standards but in the end it tends to represent the very best each era has to offer. I am not convinced we've seen the last 300 game winner, and ir certainly seems like there will be fewer. But this is already a natural adjustment the Hall makes. Voters get old and die, the new voters vote for the players they witnessed. In some ways the standards lower over time (no one is expecting 25 CGs a year, for example) and sometimes they go up (no one is going in with 1,000 Ks [Stan Coveleski had 981]). But every era gets represented (some get over-represented). Yes, often it takes the Veterans Committee to assist, but in the end 1-2% of the players who have ever played have made it to the Hall of Fame.

Let's look at HOF pitchers by decade:
(Based soley on their first season)
1870s 4
1880s 5
1890s 8
1900s 8
1910s 9
1920s 4
1930s 5
1940s 4
1950s 6
1960s 11
1970s 4
1980s 4
1990s 1

So, there's an average of 6 HOFers starting their career every decade. As the deadball era and 60s seem to have an over-representation, let's lower the average to 5. (I'm sure the Veterans Committee will get around to finding a 5th HOFer from the 70s and 80s. Don't worry Jack, there's hope for you yet! But I digress.).

What does this mean? It means two interesting things: 1. There is an average of one Rookie every other year starting his Hall of Fame career. And 2. I've forgotten where I was going with this...oh yeah, #2. There are likely 5 active HOF pitchers pitching right now this season! Bear in mind 1 or 2 of them are likely so early in their career you won't see them coming. But 2 or 3 are likely right there in the open for us to see. Maybe not locks but they exist. Here's where I'm going to lose some of you (well any of you who are still reading anyway)...I'm going to use the overused and much maligned stat WAR to see if we can find who our most likely HOFers are. (Note, while I concur the stat is waay overused, it can be useful are one dimension among many. WAR does not a HOFer make, but it is a handy way to place a value on a career. Personally I prefer Win Shares, but since WAR is more, um, common, we'll use that).

So, here are the Active pitching leaders in WAR. While none are officially locks, (a lot of people view 60 as a minimum threshhold. Rick Rueschel would like to disagree.), there are probably 2 HOFers on this list none of which have even crossed 60 by the way. Years of service and age in parenthesis:

1. Sabathia (16 years, 35 years old)
2. Kershaw (9, 28)
3. Felix (12, 30)
4. Greinke (13, 32)
5. Colon (19, 83)
6. Hamels (11, 32)
7. Verlander (12, 33)
8. Lester (11, 32)

Now, if there are 2 HOFers on that list, then there are 6 that are likely never going to make it. Pick any 2 you like. There are arguments and justifications for each one but history says they aren't all HOFers. My 2 from this list are Kershaw and Verlander (though I'd like Greinke to sneak in too). But I could be wrong. My point isn't which 2 make it, it's the reality that 6 probably won't. (And if you think Papelbon or KRod or Wade Davis will make it one day well, well, you can see how complicated this can get).

Wow, I really went off on a tangent there. Tying it back to Halladay...1 pitcher who began in the 90s is in (Pedro). That means there is likely room for just 4 others. Was Halladay one of the 5 best pitchers among every starter who began their career in the 90s? Maybe. Of the pitchers from the 90s here are the locks: Pedro, Mariano, and Mussina. Then the final (let's call it) 2 spots will be a fight between: Halladay, Tim Hudson, Hoffman, and Wagner (before you say Pettitte, I say the voters will have to induct the other cheaters which they don't appear to be doing any time soon). It is possible the 90s could be a decade that gave us 6 but all these guys ain't likely gonna make it.

He's not a lock and he is definitely not going in on the first ballot, but personally I'd put Halladay in. I actually see him making it eventually. Just keep in mind, I am a big Hall guy, so take my perspective with a grain of salt.

Oh, and forgive any typos...it's late. :)!

Nice post....

...but the truth is the voters are pretty inconsistent vis-a-vis starting pitchers. Witness how few votes Schilling and Mussina got as compared to Smoltz, for example. And before that you had a long gap between Nolan Ryan's election and the Maddux/Johnson/Pedro/Glavine quartet, with only Bert Blyleven getting elected in his last year.

Personally, I think from this generation of over 25 pitchers Felix and Bumgarner will get elected in addition to Kershaw, with Strasburg, Sale, and Greinke having decent shots. But I don't think any of the older guys (Verlander, Sabathia, Lester, etc.) are or will be hall-worthy.

[BigSeph]

Players with the best chance, statistically speaking?

Pujols
Cabrera
Ichiro
Ortiz
Beltre
Cano

Kershaw
Verlander
CC

Trout and Kershaw will be looked back on as all-time greats, no-brainer HOFers. Kershaw could retire at the end of this year and make it to the HOF. He's been that good. And I don't think people understand how far behind Trout in career WAR guys like Harper and Machado are.

If I had to peg a pitcher and a batter as being HOF locks under age 30, it's those two.

[jmscoggin]

Trout and Kershaw will be looked back on as all-time greats, no-brainer HOFers. Kershaw could retire at the end of this year and make it to the HOF. He's been that good. And I don't think people understand how far behind Trout in career WAR guys like Harper and Machado are.

If I had to peg a pitcher and a batter as being HOF locks under age 30, it's those two.

I only have one quibble with what you posted, Kershaw needs one more year after this one. You need 10 years to be eligible, this is his ninth. To be honest though, I'm not sure how much he has to play for it to count as a year, 1 batter faced or is there an actual percentage? Skip?

[BigSeph]

I only have one quibble with what you posted, Kershaw needs one more year after this one. You need 10 years to be eligible, this is his ninth. To be honest though, I'm not sure how much he has to play for it to count as a year, 1 batter faced or is there an actual percentage? Skip?

Good point, totally forgot about that.

B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).

He would need to at least pitch in a game next year. :)

[jmscoggin]

Good point, totally forgot about that.

B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).

He would need to at least pitch in a game next year. :)

There it is, even if his arm falls off this year, roll him out to the mound next year in some form or fashion and let him roll a pitch to home plate if necessary, boom HOF'er.

[Big35Hurt]

Good point, totally forgot about that.

B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).

He would need to at least pitch in a game next year. :)

It's a good thing winning a championship isn't part of the requirement. :eek: :D

[babybull]

Here are my 10:

Pujols
Ichiro
Cabrera
Kershaw
Bumgarner
Trout
Felix
Ortiz
Beltre
McCutcheon

Who am I leaving out?

Molina

[Ottomatic]

Molina

Agree on Molina will bet he gets in. Catchers you can't judge by standard numbers, just a gut feeling that he gets in.

[jmscoggin]

It's a good thing winning a championship isn't part of the requirement. :eek: :D

Griffey, Yaz, Gwynn, Sandberg, Banks, Cobb, Williams, Fisk and Yount think your post is stupid.

[k13]

If you doubled Trouts stats, he'd have higher WAR than any active player except Pujols (and Aroid which doesn't count), and 8 top 2 MVP finishes...and would have been the undisputed best player in MLB (non pitcher) for 8 years.
He's a MORTAL LOCK

When the only criteria of Trout not making it is a career ending injury, I will consider that more likely and a better chance to make it vs somebody else that has questionable stats

WAR is overrated.
His stats are average compared to most HOF'ers.

[jmscoggin]

WAR is overrated.
His stats are average compared to most HOF'ers.

You forgot the smiley face, without it I'm having a hard time seeing the sarcasm.

[Big35Hurt]

Griffey, Yaz, Gwynn, Sandberg, Banks, Cobb, Williams, Fisk and Yount think your post is stupid.

Salty!! Dude....I love Kershaw. It was a joke and poking fun at those that bring up his post-season stats in these types of discussions. The Kershaw haters love to bring those up. He's from another planet when it comes to pitching.

[Big35Hurt]

WAR is overrated.
His stats are average compared to most HOF'ers.

He'd get my vote if he would do a bat flip after a big HR. Until then...he's very average. :doh:

[jmscoggin]

Salty!! Dude....I love Kershaw. It was a joke and poking fun at those that bring up his post-season stats in these types of discussions. The Kershaw haters love to bring those up. He's from another planet when it comes to pitching.

I know it was a joke but don't shoot the messenger, I repeated it exactly as they told me to say it. I tried to get them to soften the wording but you know how those old school guys are. They originally wanted to say something worse than stupid but I advised them that repeating it would get me banned.

[BostonNut]

Forgot all about him. Though he's not there yet, he is definitely got a shot. Star catcher on two World Championship teams will get him lots of votes. I give him a good shot at making it.

Jason Varitek says hi.

No chance for Molina in my opinion.

[Ottomatic]

Jason Varitek says hi.

No chance for Molina in my opinion.

Molina already has 10 more career WAR than Varitek despite war SEVERELY undervaluing Molina's defense. And Molina is still playing well. Weak comparison.

[jmscoggin]

Jason Varitek says hi.

No chance for Molina in my opinion.

I always thought he was on the right track but just checked his stats after seeing your post. They are way less impressive than I figured they'd be. He'd have to go on a pretty good run and unfortunately, his last few seasons make that look highly unlikely.

[BostonNut]

Molina already has 10 more career WAR than Varitek despite war SEVERELY undervaluing Molina's defense. And Molina is still playing well. Weak comparison.

Varitek caught 4 no-hitters.

I'd say that is pretty good considering he is the only one to ever do it.

I think that is a wash for your advanced metric stats.

[Ottomatic]

Varitek caught 4 no-hitters.

I'd say that is pretty good considering he is the only one to ever do it.

I think that is a wash for your advanced metric stats.

Ok, that's a nice fact, but I'm not sure 4 games makes Varitek the same defender Molina was, not that I dissed Variteks defense in my post. Molina has had the better career and isn't done yet, so it's a weak comparison.

What I was saying is that WAR doesn't encapsulate a lot of catcher defense and Molina does the things it doesn't count very well. Not that Varitek doesn't but Molina even moreso.

[BostonNut]

Ok, that's a nice fact, but I'm not sure 4 games makes Varitek the same defender Molina was, not that I dissed Variteks defense in my post. Molina has had the better career and isn't done yet, so it's a weak comparison.

What I was saying is that WAR doesn't encapsulate a lot of catcher defense and Molina does the things it doesn't count very well. Not that Varitek doesn't but Molina even moreso.

What is more important as a catcher? Defense or game calling?

[Ottomatic]

What is more important as a catcher? Defense or game calling?

I'm talking about things like game calling and pitch framing. Molina is one of the best ever and we can't value that with stats yet.

[BostonNut]

I'm talking about things like game calling and pitch framing. Molina is one of the best ever and we can't value that with stats yet.

Okay then...Varitek was the best game caller ever and that really cannot be argued.

You call my comparison of Varitek to Molina asinine but I think it's a lot closer than you think.

[Ottomatic]

Okay then...Varitek was the best game caller ever and that really cannot be argued.

You call my comparison of Varitek to Molina asinine but I think it's a lot closer than you think.

Varitek wasn't anywhere near Molina defensively (yes I am including gamecalling). IMO. And I think that will show once voting comes around. Not saying Molina ill for sure make it, but he has a chance.

[BostonNut]

Varitek wasn't anywhere near Molina defensively (yes I am including gamecalling). IMO. And I think that will show once voting comes around. Not saying Molina ill for sure make it, but he has a chance.

How are you measuring this?? Passed balls? Dropped pop-ups?

[Skipscards]

Pleased to see you describe Moose as a lock, Skip, but thus far the BBWAA dont share our opinion.

Fwiw, of the guys you list as 'fighting it out for two spots,' only Halladay and Hoffman have a chance imo. Wouldnt surprise me if neither made it though.
Thanks. Moose is a lock. I realize it's strange to call someone a lock who has been thus far rejected by the BBWAA, but I don't view the Hall in single year increments. I try to consider all the ways a player gets in and plenty of the current members (even players thought of as no-brainers) got in after missing on the first ballot (Yogi Berra) and many others via the Veterans Committee. The reality is, there is no precedence for keeping a pitcher like Mussina out. There has never been a pitcher as good as he was not inducted except for Roger Clemens.

Well, Halladay and Hoffman would be 2 and I would agree, they are the most likely of those mentioned.


Nice post....

...but the truth is the voters are pretty inconsistent vis-a-vis starting pitchers. Witness how few votes Schilling and Mussina got as compared to Smoltz, for example. And before that you had a long gap between Nolan Ryan's election and the Maddux/Johnson/Pedro/Glavine quartet, with only Bert Blyleven getting elected in his last year.

Personally, I think from this generation of over 25 pitchers Felix and Bumgarner will get elected in addition to Kershaw, with Strasburg, Sale, and Greinke having decent shots. But I don't think any of the older guys (Verlander, Sabathia, Lester, etc.) are or will be hall-worthy.
Thanks. I appreciate it.

The voters are definitely, and have always been, inconsistent. But that doesn't mean they aren't predictible over time. There have been long gaps previously. Eventually the BBWAA seems to get it sorted out and when they don't the Veterans Committee invariably tosses a few more players in just in case. Blyleven needed to wait a long time but he did make it. And that's part of how I try to look at it....with a broader picture. The fact is, some of these players are going to be Hall of Famers but long after we're all gone. I don't think Mussina and Schilling will have to wait much longer. And once they are in, people will forget or stop talking about whether Smoltz got in but Schilling didn't for example. They'll just be in.

As for your picks, you've selected Kershaw and Felix as your 2 with Greinke a possible 3rd. Not the same ones I picked, but certainly could be Felix instead of Verlander. I just think Verlander's MVP will weigh heavier and I think now that he's past his injury to his core, he seems to have returned to form. But it could just as easily be Felix. Guys like Sale, Strasburg, and Bumgarner are still too early to predict. But sure, could be.


I only have one quibble with what you posted, Kershaw needs one more year after this one. You need 10 years to be eligible, this is his ninth. To be honest though, I'm not sure how much he has to play for it to count as a year, 1 batter faced or is there an actual percentage? Skip?

Good point, totally forgot about that.

B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).

He would need to at least pitch in a game next year. :)
Yep. Assuming he throws the first pitch of the Dodgers season, that will be the moment he locks up his Hall of Fame candidacy. Unless...he fails a PED test. Aside from going 0-20 for 5 consecutive seasons, that would be the only thing that could destroy him.

[Ray27Ray52]

Yadier Molina has 101 career homeruns and less than 700 rbis. What am I missing here? I am seriously confused.

[hche]

Yadier Molina has 101 career homeruns and less than 700 rbis. What am I missing here? I am seriously confused.

7 straight all-stars and 8 straight gold gloves. He is one of the best, if not the best all around C in last 10 years. But then his batting stats aren't that impressive for a career. So the debate goes on.

[Skipscards]

Jason Varitek says hi.

No chance for Molina in my opinion.

First of all, I am a huge fan of Varitek. Georgia Tech is my favorite NCAA team. So, I am admittedly biased. I'd love to see him sneak in one day via the Veterans Committee because of someone mentioning his "grit" and "clubhouse presence" and boom, Hall of Famer. (Hey, it's happened before). But...

I said "Star Catcher". Molina has finished in the top 5 in MVP voting twice. He's thrown out almost half (44%) of the baserunners who have ever tried to steal on him. By comparison Varitek has received a few token MVP votes and has thrown out 23%.

Also, I'm not saying Molina will be a HOFer. I just pointed out star catchers on World Championship teams get more consideration beyond their stats. (For the record so have Shortstops). I do think he is on track but he probably needs to play another 5-7 seasons which is far from a given.

[mcgoo2]

Yadier Molina has 101 career homeruns and less than 700 rbis. What am I missing here? I am seriously confused.

Defense and homerism. Yadier Molina is the Ozzie Smith of catchers.

[Patsfan]

Homer pick: Joey Votto

[TheHeel]

Someone who is not getting in.....

Joe Mauer

[Thinking]

Looking at current/recent Phillies I would say the following:

Thome - lock
Halladay - lock
Utley - close, may sneak in later on
Rollins - close but probably no cigar
Hamels - has potential, but needs to do more
Lee - no
Howard - no
Ruiz - no
Werth - no
Papelbon - close, but probably not
Lidge - no
Victorino - no

[jhssketchcards]

Sabathia is back on track now. Beltran has sealed the deal with his amazing year.


Beltran hasnt played an entire season since 2002. Thats 14 years of injuries.
In fact that is the only season he has played all 162 games. Thats also the only stat he has ever led the league in, 162 games played. If Beltran gets in, Dale Murphy should be right behind him. He had some pretty great years in the late 2000s, but hasnt been healthy enough over the past decade to warrant strong HOF consideration. If he gets 500 HR maybe. But I dont think 500 HR is a bench mark anymore for determining a HOF lock (used to be). He is hands down one of the best Post-Season players of all-time, but so is Bernie Williams.

[zbaseball21]

Carlos Beltran has never led the league in any main offensive category in any single season of his career, how many players are in the hall of fame who can say that? I don't see him making it in

David Ortiz would be a lock if that 2003 failed ped test didn't get leaked, it's unfair that he got leaked and 100 others did not but nobody ever came out and said that the report was false so it's safe to say that it's true.

[jmscoggin]

David Ortiz would be a lock if that 2003 failed ped test didn't get leaked, it's unfair that he got leaked and 100 others did not but nobody ever came out and said that the report was false so it's safe to say that it's true.

He cheated and got caught, please explain where "unfair" comes into that picture. Don't want to do the time, don't do the crime.

[jhssketchcards]

He cheated and got caught, please explain where "unfair" comes into that picture. Don't want to do the time, don't do the crime.

I agree with this. Ortiz hurt his chances at being a 1st Ballot HOFer. If he gets in, they all need to get in. McGwire particularly. Ortiz was popped, McGwire wasn't,
although he later confessed that he used. Same with Clemens, Bonds etc. They should get in if Ortiz gets in.

[Ottomatic]

Beltran hasnt played an entire season since 2002. Thats 14 years of injuries.
In fact that is the only season he has played all 162 games. Thats also the only stat he has ever led the league in, 162 games played. If Beltran gets in, Dale Murphy should be right behind him. He had some pretty great years in the late 2000s, but hasnt been healthy enough over the past decade to warrant strong HOF consideration. If he gets 500 HR maybe. But I dont think 500 HR is a bench mark anymore for determining a HOF lock (used to be). He is hands down one of the best Post-Season players of all-time, but so is Bernie Williams.

Beltran has 20 more career WAR than Murphy. WAR is not a perfect stat, but it doesn't discriminate player to player so I'm comfortable saying a 20 war gap is big enough to tell me Beltran was way better.

The hall was never meant to be for just the super top players. If some people had it their way Trout and Kershaw would be the only current guys in.... There are already guidelines we have, and Beltran hit them. He will make it, especially after icing it with the year he is having.

[jstasyk1121]

Beltran hasnt played an entire season since 2002. Thats 14 years of injuries.
In fact that is the only season he has played all 162 games. Thats also the only stat he has ever led the league in, 162 games played. If Beltran gets in, Dale Murphy should be right behind him. He had some pretty great years in the late 2000s, but hasnt been healthy enough over the past decade to warrant strong HOF consideration. If he gets 500 HR maybe. But I dont think 500 HR is a bench mark anymore for determining a HOF lock (used to be). He is hands down one of the best Post-Season players of all-time, but so is Bernie Williams.

he has a handful of seasons where he played 140+gms...i wouldnt quite call those "injured seasons"...not many guys play 162 really...i mean mike trout hasnt played even 160 one time yet...he clearly has 5 seasons of injuries then right?? lol

09-10 were injury shortened....and then he played 109 and 133 games in '14-'15(at 37-38yrs old so i dont really discount that either)....every other season he still got atleast 500ab...

and yea he does have the great post-season numbers that will give him a bump....

as for b.williams also being this type of player...i just plain disagree...he was a nice player ... he has beltran in avg/obp...

but the counting stats(sure beltran has played longer...but he is ahead in literally every stat: r, h, 2b, 3b, hr, rbi, 2x the sb, 1/2 the cs,

and their playoff resume...beltran did some serious damage in like 180ab....bernie had over 450 playoff at bats!!! and the only stat bernie is good at is career playoff home runs...but again he prob is at or leading the career playoff at bats list too...22hr in 450+ab....beltran had 16hr/180ab...

beltran also in the playoffs was much better overall.... .332/.441/.674/1.115

bernie didnt really improve...he just played so many playoff games.... .275/.371/.480/.850

and the WAR stat which can be taken however you want these days...beltran smashes him 69.3 to 49.4

[jhssketchcards]

he has a handful of seasons where he played 140+gms...i wouldnt quite call those "injured seasons"...not many guys play 162 really...i mean mike trout hasnt played even 160 one time yet...he clearly has 5 seasons of injuries then right?? lol

09-10 were injury shortened....and then he played 109 and 133 games in '14-'15(at 37-38yrs old so i dont really discount that either)....every other season he still got atleast 500ab...

and yea he does have the great post-season numbers that will give him a bump....

as for b.williams also being this type of player...i just plain disagree...he was a nice player ... he has beltran in avg/obp...

but the counting stats(sure beltran has played longer...but he is ahead in literally every stat: r, h, 2b, 3b, hr, rbi, 2x the sb, 1/2 the cs,

and their playoff resume...beltran did some serious damage in like 180ab....bernie had over 450 playoff at bats!!! and the only stat bernie is good at is career playoff home runs...but again he prob is at or leading the career playoff at bats list too...22hr in 450+ab....beltran had 16hr/180ab...

beltran also in the playoffs was much better overall.... .332/.441/.674/1.115

bernie didnt really improve...he just played so many playoff games.... .275/.371/.480/.850

and the WAR stat which can be taken however you want these days...beltran smashes him 69.3 to 49.4

I agree... But Beltran ahead of Dale Murphy? Murphy was 2-time MVP - Back-t-Back. Beltran highest MVP was 4th. Was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league? Hardly, ONE of the best... yes. But Alan Trammel was one of the best. Gil Hodges was one of the best. Roger Maris was one of the best AND a 2-time MVP.
Beltran isn't one of the greatest of all-time, but is one of the best in the league now. He simply doesn't stack up over games history. Great player, MAY get in.

[Ottomatic]

I agree... But Beltran ahead of Dale Murphy? Murphy was 2-time MVP - Back-t-Back. Beltran highest MVP was 4th. Was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league? Hardly, ONE of the best... yes. But Alan Trammel was one of the best. Gil Hodges was one of the best. Roger Maris was one of the best AND a 2-time MVP.
Beltran isn't one of the greatest of all-time, but is one of the best in the league now. He simply doesn't stack up over games history. Great player, MAY get in.

Beltran's two best season's stack up favorably to Murphy's two best so not sure how much the MVP thing means. Especially when voters used to pick MVP just by picking the top RBI guy, yuck. Their bats were similar, Beltran's defense and baserunning blow him out of the water.

[Skipscards]

I agree... But Beltran ahead of Dale Murphy? Murphy was 2-time MVP - Back-t-Back. Beltran highest MVP was 4th. Was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league? Hardly, ONE of the best... yes. But Alan Trammel was one of the best. Gil Hodges was one of the best. Roger Maris was one of the best AND a 2-time MVP.
Beltran isn't one of the greatest of all-time, but is one of the best in the league now. He simply doesn't stack up over games history. Great player, MAY get in.

Beltran's two best season's stack up favorably to Murphy's two best so not sure how much the MVP thing means. Especially when voters used to pick MVP just by picking the top RBI guy, yuck. Their bats were similar, Beltran's defense and baserunning blow him out of the water.

Ok, let's not go knocking The Murph. He was a geat player in his own right. His MVPs weren't given to him simply because he had the most RBIs. He also smashed 36 homeruns, led the league OPS, Runs Created, was a 30-30 guy (when it was still pretty rare), etc. Also, Murphy was a fine defender winning 2 more gold gloves than Beltran.

Ironicaly, Murphy and Beltran have the same OPS+ (121). And while Beltran does have more WAR, their peak (best 7 seasons) is statisitcally similar (44 vs 41).

Personally, I think both have strong, if borderline, cases for the Hall. Though we are comparing one "great/best player in the league for a short time" vs. "really good player for a long period of time". So it's not exactly apples to apples.

[jhssketchcards]

Beltran's two best season's stack up favorably to Murphy's two best so not sure how much the MVP thing means. Especially when voters used to pick MVP just by picking the top RBI guy, yuck. Their bats were similar, Beltran's defense and baserunning blow him out of the water.

I agree, but considering those numbers...
Murphy has 5 straight Gold Gloves to Beltrans 3
Murphy has 4 Silver Sluggers to Beltrans 2

Point is Beltran is a great player. But he has never maxed out his full potential except for maybe a few seasons. Is that enough for a HOF career? I don't know, maybe. Im not saying no, just saying there are guys more deserving.

[Ottomatic]

I agree, but considering those numbers...
Murphy has 5 straight Gold Gloves to Beltrans 3
Murphy has 4 Silver Sluggers to Beltrans 2

Point is Beltran is a great player. But he has never maxed out his full potential except for maybe a few seasons. Is that enough for a HOF career? I don't know, maybe. Im not saying no, just saying there are guys more deserving.

Murphy was a really good player, but to me defensively it wasn't close. Gold gloves are mainly given on reputation and your hitting. They mean very little to me. Beltran over the course of his career was also a much better baserunner than Murphy.

Also Beltran isn't done yet. He still may have another 30+ homers in him who knows.

[Ottomatic]

Ok, let's not go knocking The Murph. He was a geat player in his own right. His MVPs weren't given to him simply because he had the most RBIs. He also smashed 36 homeruns, led the league OPS, Runs Created, was a 30-30 guy (when it was still pretty rare), etc. Also, Murphy was a fine defender winning 2 more gold gloves than Beltran.

Ironicaly, Murphy and Beltran have the same OPS+ (121). And while Beltran does have more WAR, their peak (best 7 seasons) is statisitcally similar (44 vs 41).

Personally, I think both have strong, if borderline, cases for the Hall. Though we are comparing one "great/best player in the league for a short time" vs. "really good player for a long period of time". So it's not exactly apples to apples.

Really good player for really long time against best player for short time yet they have almost the same peak? Beltran is always sold short for some reason. I thought he was a hall of famer before the season then he went and hit 18 homers before the all star break.

[jhssketchcards]

Really good player for really long time against best player for short time yet they have almost the same peak? Beltran is always sold short for some reason. I thought he was a hall of famer before the season then he went and hit 18 homers before the all star break.

You make great points, and honestly if he is a HOF I'm good with it. He seems like a good dude and played clean as far we know. I just wish he would have stayed in Houston! LOL

[Skipscards]

Murphy was a really good player, but to me defensively it wasn't close. Gold gloves are mainly given on reputation and your hitting. They mean very little to me. Beltran over the course of his career was also a much better baserunner than Murphy.

Also Beltran isn't done yet. He still may have another 30+ homers in him who knows.

I'm not sure why you think defensively it wasn't close. Murphy was every bit as good defensively as Beltran. Murphy led his position twice in assists and twice in DPs. Beltran did it once (DPs). Murphy led the league in Total Zone Runs a couple of times, something Beltran never did. And baserunner? Where do you get that? True Beltran stole more bases at a higher percentage but it ain't like Murphy was slow. He had a 70% success rate himself. And was known as one of the smartest baserunners in his prime.

Did you even see Murphy play?

[Skipscards]

Really good player for really long time against best player for short time yet they have almost the same peak? Beltran is always sold short for some reason. I thought he was a hall of famer before the season then he went and hit 18 homers before the all star break.

Yes. There were several years Murphy was in the discussion for best player in the game. Something Beltran has never been. But Bletran has been consistently good for a long time. Nothing wrong with that.

[Ottomatic]

I'm not sure why you think defensively it wasn't close. Murphy was every bit as good defensively as Beltran. Murphy led his position twice in assists and twice in DPs. Beltran did it once (DPs). Murphy led the league in Total Zone Runs a couple of times, something Beltran never did. And baserunner? Where do you get that? True Beltran stole more bases at a higher percentage but it ain't like Murphy was slow. He had a 70% success rate himself. And was known as one of the smartest baserunners in his prime.

Did you even see Murphy play?

Beltran was better at defense and baserunning.

And I just looked at their peaks, took when they started playing well until when they fell off a bit.

Beltran was from like 2001-08 and put up 44 WAR was ranked 4th out of all players behind Arod, Bonds and somebody else. So he was hanging with beasts in a Steroid era....

Murphy was like 1980-88 and put up 39 WAR (one more year than Beltran yet less WAR) and he ranked as the 9th best player.

You're selling Beltran short. Murphy hall of very very good, Beltran hall of fame. Of course he may not get in because voters stink, but he deserves it.

[jstasyk1121]

I agree... But Beltran ahead of Dale Murphy? Murphy was 2-time MVP - Back-t-Back. Beltran highest MVP was 4th. Was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league? Hardly, ONE of the best... yes. But Alan Trammel was one of the best. Gil Hodges was one of the best. Roger Maris was one of the best AND a 2-time MVP.
Beltran isn't one of the greatest of all-time, but is one of the best in the league now. He simply doesn't stack up over games history. Great player, MAY get in.


i mean MVP is a little tough to debate like that...i would argue that beltran had a MUCH more difficult path to a MVP award during his career...Murphy won in the early 80s which is kind of a down time for offense/stars/big name guys....

beltran had to beat out perennial guys like bonds/pujols in his prime which wasnt gonna happen...

but at same time...2time MVP is nice...but his numbers overall are not that special at all!!

1200r 2100h 398hr 1200rbi .265/.346/.469/.815

beltran has like 300 more runs and counting
beltran has like 400 more hits and counting
beltran has like 160 more doubles and counting
beltran has more home runs and counting
beltran has like 250 more rbi's and counting
beltran has twice as many stolen bases
beltran has more walks
beltran has less strikeouts
beltran has higher avg/opb/slg/ops

(beltran does have about 1000 more at bats...but that would only realistically change HR and maybe the bb/k)

[jhssketchcards]

Beltran was better at defense and baserunning.

Murphy won more gold gloves... just to be clear

[jstasyk1121]

as for their peak WARs....i mean that hurts Murphy a ton in my opinion!!!!!

his 7yr peak was 41.0 WAR....meaning the rest of his career he had about 5WAR TOTAL!!!!

Beltran 7yr peak of 44.3 leaves him with an additional 25WAR thru his career...meaning outside of their best 7yr peak(in which Beltran was still better)...Beltran was 5x more valuable than Murphy for the other parts of their careers!!!

[jhssketchcards]

as for their peak WARs....i mean that hurts Murphy a ton in my opinion!!!!!

his 7yr peak was 41.0 WAR....meaning the rest of his career he had about 5WAR TOTAL!!!!

Beltran 7yr peak of 44.3 leaves him with an additional 25WAR thru his career...meaning outside of their best 7yr peak(in which Beltran was still better)...Beltran was 5x more valuable than Murphy for the other parts of their careers!!!

Not arguing any of that. BUT was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league?

[jmscoggin]

as for their peak WARs....i mean that hurts Murphy a ton in my opinion!!!!!

his 7yr peak was 41.0 WAR....meaning the rest of his career he had about 5WAR TOTAL!!!!

Beltran 7yr peak of 44.3 leaves him with an additional 25WAR thru his career...meaning outside of their best 7yr peak(in which Beltran was still better)...Beltran was 5x more valuable than Murphy for the other parts of their careers!!!

Someone is really fired up !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[babybull]

Carlos Beltran has never led the league in any main offensive category in any single season of his career, how many players are in the hall of fame who can say that? I don't see him making it in

David Ortiz would be a lock if that 2003 failed ped test didn't get leaked, it's unfair that he got leaked and 100 others did not but nobody ever came out and said that the report was false so it's safe to say that it's true.

Sure, because the leaking of a failed PED test is the problem. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

[Ottomatic]

Not arguing any of that. BUT was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league?

Does it matter? The fact is that he WAS one of the best. Public perception if often wrong. The only guys with better numbers than him in his prime were big time steroid users. So maybe his spotlight was unfairly stolen?

[jhssketchcards]

Ok... Im not talking about public perception. Im talking about MLB recognition. Awards etc. Achievements. You saying public perception is often wrong can be translated back to the argument about Beltran being a true HOF candidate. Beltran prime is about what 6 years maybe? Like I said, Im not saying he isn't a HOFer. Im saying he isn't a lock. The HOF should not be a lifetime achievement award. Beltran has had a good, solid career and at times been a superstar. His postseason stats are great, but no WS to speak of. To me, when guys have to dig up WAR and other metrics, its a stretch for guy to be considered a HOFer. If he earns it, I will be happy for him. I loved watching him with the Astros.

[jstasyk1121]

Not arguing any of that. BUT was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league?

different eras...swap them and he would have been...and murphy wouldnt ever have won an mvp over the guys from the 00s like bonds/pujols

he was considered "best in the game" with seasons that arent all that special.... his avg of those 2 seasons:

122runs
23dbl
36hr
115rbi
26sb
92bb
115k
.291avg
.386obp
.523slg
.909ops
146 ops+

beltran in 2006:
127runs
38dbl
41hr
116rbi
18sb
95bb
99k
.275avg
.388obp
.594slg
.982ops
150 ops+

Beltran finishes 4th that year!! put him in '82 or '83 and he likely wins the MVP...so again as i said...little tougher to beat out who he had to in order to win....

1982: Murphy beat out these legends:
Murphy
Lonnie Smith: .307avg/120runs/68sb/8hr/69rbi-his ONLY all star season ever
P.Guerrero: .304avg, 32hr, 100rbi, 22sb
Al Oliver: .331avg, 22hr, 109rbi, 204h
Bruce Sutter: 9-8, 36sv, 100+inn, 2.90era, 61k/34bb, 1.19whip


Meanwhile in 2006 Beltran finishes 4th behind:
Ryan Howard: .313, 58hr, 149rbi
Albert Pujols: .331, 49hr, 137rbi
Lance Berkman: .315, 45hr, 136rbi
Beltran
Miggy: .339avg, 26hr, 114rbi
Soriano: 46hr/41sb/119r/.911ops...finishes 6th
Jose Reyes: basically does what L.Smith did but is better across board with more power as well...finishes tied for 7th...while L.Smith gets 8 1st place votes

so sure you can say "murphy was considered the best in the game for a couple years" all you want...but it is not that easy...the numbers were astronomical compared to when Murphy was winning and his competition were simply just nowhere close to as good...

[Ottomatic]

Ok... Im not talking about public perception. Im talking about MLB recognition. Awards etc. Achievements. You saying public perception is often wrong can be translated back to the argument about Beltran being a true HOF candidate. Beltran prime is about what 6 years maybe? Like I said, Im not saying he isn't a HOFer. Im saying he isn't a lock. The HOF should not be a lifetime achievement award. Beltran has had a good, solid career and at times been a superstar. His postseason stats are great, but no WS to speak of. To me, when guys have to dig up WAR and other metrics, its a stretch for guy to be considered a HOFer. If he earns it, I will be happy for him. I loved watching him with the Astros.

The thing is that MLB awards are often a popularity contest. Bad defenders win gold gloves. MVP was typically just an award for RBI's. Those things are just as flawed as WAR.

[jrosales]

The thing is that MLB awards are often a popularity contest. Bad defenders win gold gloves. MVP was typically just an award for RBI's. Those things are just as flawed as WAR.

This is a very good point. Palmeiro won a Gold Glove around 15-17 years ago, despite only playing around 25 games in the field. That was puzzling.

[bobthewondercat]

...who has the best chance at the Hall of Fame Emergency Room?!

sorry, had to.

[jhssketchcards]

The thing is that MLB awards are often a popularity contest. Bad defenders win gold gloves. MVP was typically just an award for RBI's. Those things are just as flawed as WAR.

OK... so what is the gauge of a great player? If awards are flawed, and popularity contests, stats don't tell the whole story (Matt Harvey case in point), what then is the gauge??? The writers are in their roles for a reason. I don't agree with them either. So what is the measure of greatness? I mean this is starting to sound like participation awards in little league. The first place kids get the same recognition as the last place kids. Really? I like Beltran, but where do we start to see greatest? Is is collectibility or ticket sales? No. Its on the field. Beltran is having a great year and I hope he sustains it. If he can stay healthy and do it a few more times I would say he's a lock. But to say that he belongs in the same HOF outfield as Mantle, Mays and Aaron no way. Then again I think there are others who are in that don't belong either. Jim Rice, Andre Dawson for example. I love those guys, but not HOFers.

[Skipscards]

Beltran was better at defense and baserunning.

And I just looked at their peaks, took when they started playing well until when they fell off a bit.

Beltran was from like 2001-08 and put up 44 WAR was ranked 4th out of all players behind Arod, Bonds and somebody else. So he was hanging with beasts in a Steroid era....

Murphy was like 1980-88 and put up 39 WAR (one more year than Beltran yet less WAR) and he ranked as the 9th best player.

You're selling Beltran short. Murphy hall of very very good, Beltran hall of fame. Of course he may not get in because voters stink, but he deserves it.
This simply isn't true. You keep saying Beltran was better at defense and baserunning. Saying something a million times doesn't make it true.

And I'm not selling Betran short. I think they both have good cases for the Hall. I just think they are different types of cases. Murphy's case is like Kiner's and Duke Snider's...one of the best players in the game for a short period of time. Beltran's case is more like Dawson's and Billy Williams'...a long career of consistent performance. There is plenty of room in the Hall for both types.



i mean MVP is a little tough to debate like that...i would argue that beltran had a MUCH more difficult path to a MVP award during his career...Murphy won in the early 80s which is kind of a down time for offense/stars/big name guys....

beltran had to beat out perennial guys like bonds/pujols in his prime which wasnt gonna happen...

but at same time...2time MVP is nice...but his numbers overall are not that special at all!!

1200r 2100h 398hr 1200rbi .265/.346/.469/.815

beltran has like 300 more runs and counting
beltran has like 400 more hits and counting
beltran has like 160 more doubles and counting
beltran has more home runs and counting
beltran has like 250 more rbi's and counting
beltran has twice as many stolen bases
beltran has more walks
beltran has less strikeouts
beltran has higher avg/opb/slg/ops

(beltran does have about 1000 more at bats...but that would only realistically change HR and maybe the bb/k)
I don't even know what this means. Competition is relative. Either you are the best player in the league or you aren't. Murphy was competing against plenty of All-Time greats. Ever heard of Mike Schmidt? Gary Carter? Andre Dawson?

Again, numbers are relative. That's why I mentioned OPS+. That indexes OPS so you can actually neutralize things like eras, ball park effects, etc. They have the same career OPS+... 121.


Not arguing any of that. BUT was Beltran EVER considered the best in the league?

Does it matter? The fact is that he WAS one of the best. Public perception if often wrong. The only guys with better numbers than him in his prime were big time steroid users. So maybe his spotlight was unfairly stolen?
You keep oscillating between empirical and statisical arguments. To answer your question, when debating the Hall of Fame, yes it does matter. At least it has for nearly 100 years. Being considered the best is actually important.

Beltran has a lot going for him in the debate of Hall worthiness. Being considered the best at any point of his career is not one of them. Good news is there are many paths to the Hall of Fame.


Ok... Im not talking about public perception. Im talking about MLB recognition. Awards etc. Achievements. You saying public perception is often wrong can be translated back to the argument about Beltran being a true HOF candidate. Beltran prime is about what 6 years maybe? Like I said, Im not saying he isn't a HOFer. Im saying he isn't a lock. The HOF should not be a lifetime achievement award. Beltran has had a good, solid career and at times been a superstar. His postseason stats are great, but no WS to speak of. To me, when guys have to dig up WAR and other metrics, its a stretch for guy to be considered a HOFer. If he earns it, I will be happy for him. I loved watching him with the Astros.
This. I will add, as I mentioned before, WAR is overused, but that doesn't render it irrelevant. It is part of the discussion, but part of it.
different eras...swap them and he would have been...and murphy wouldnt ever have won an mvp over the guys from the 00s like bonds/pujols

he was considered "best in the game" with seasons that arent all that special.... his avg of those 2 seasons:

122runs
23dbl
36hr
115rbi
26sb
92bb
115k
.291avg
.386obp
.523slg
.909ops
146 ops+

beltran in 2006:
127runs
38dbl
41hr
116rbi
18sb
95bb
99k
.275avg
.388obp
.594slg
.982ops
150 ops+

Beltran finishes 4th that year!! put him in '82 or '83 and he likely wins the MVP...so again as i said...little tougher to beat out who he had to in order to win....

1982: Murphy beat out these legends:
Murphy
Lonnie Smith: .307avg/120runs/68sb/8hr/69rbi-his ONLY all star season ever
P.Guerrero: .304avg, 32hr, 100rbi, 22sb
Al Oliver: .331avg, 22hr, 109rbi, 204h
Bruce Sutter: 9-8, 36sv, 100+inn, 2.90era, 61k/34bb, 1.19whip


Meanwhile in 2006 Beltran finishes 4th behind:
Ryan Howard: .313, 58hr, 149rbi
Albert Pujols: .331, 49hr, 137rbi
Lance Berkman: .315, 45hr, 136rbi
Beltran
Miggy: .339avg, 26hr, 114rbi
Soriano: 46hr/41sb/119r/.911ops...finishes 6th
Jose Reyes: basically does what L.Smith did but is better across board with more power as well...finishes tied for 7th...while L.Smith gets 8 1st place votes

so sure you can say "murphy was considered the best in the game for a couple years" all you want...but it is not that easy...the numbers were astronomical compared to when Murphy was winning and his competition were simply just nowhere close to as good...
Ok, most of this is just silliness. Put Beltran in the conditions of the game in the 80s and his numbers would look different. Same with putting Murphy in the 2000s. I suppose you believe if Beltran played in 1905 he'd still hit 25 homeruns?

The thing is that MLB awards are often a popularity contest. Bad defenders win gold gloves. MVP was typically just an award for RBI's. Those things are just as flawed as WAR.

This is a very good point. Palmeiro won a Gold Glove around 15-17 years ago, despite only playing around 25 games in the field. That was puzzling.
Yes, that was a bad vote and very puzzling. Also, there are other examples when the gold glove was given to someone undeserving (Jeter in 2010). But that doesn't mean every gold glove given was underserving.

Every metric has a flaw or multiple flaws. That's why a discussion should include multiple dimensions. WAR isn't the only standard. Gold Gloves aren't the only measure. It's everything.

OK... so what is the gauge of a great player? If awards are flawed, and popularity contests, stats don't tell the whole story (Matt Harvey case in point), what then is the gauge??? The writers are in their roles for a reason. I don't agree with them either. So what is the measure of greatness? I mean this is starting to sound like participation awards in little league. The first place kids get the same recognition as the last place kids. Really? I like Beltran, but where do we start to see greatest? Is is collectibility or ticket sales? No. Its on the field. Beltran is having a great year and I hope he sustains it. If he can stay healthy and do it a few more times I would say he's a lock. But to say that he belongs in the same HOF outfield as Mantle, Mays and Aaron no way. Then again I think there are others who are in that don't belong either. Jim Rice, Andre Dawson for example. I love those guys, but not HOFers.
Right. It has to be something. We can't just throw everything out. Rather we should consider everything....empirical, anecdotal, statistical, recognition, etc.

And the Hall stopped being the Hall of Ruth, Mays, Mantle, etc loooong ago. The Hall recognizes greatness in many ways. Sometimes it's the no-brainers, sure. But it's also the slickest fielders (Ozzie, Maz, etc), the blue collar workers (Biggio, Yount, etc), the ancient ones (Mack, Cox, etc), the personalities (Rizzuto, Stengel, etc), the innovators (Sutter, White, etc), the poems (Tinker, Evers, etc), and the lightning (Koufax, Pedro, etc).

[Archangel1775]

IN:
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki

PROBABLE
Adrian Beltre

LIKELY (With a strong finish)
Felix Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Buster Posey

STILL HAS A SHOT
Joe Mauer
David Wright

Those are my 10

[jhssketchcards]

IN:
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki

PROBABLE
Adrian Beltre

LIKELY (With a strong finish)
Felix Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Buster Posey

STILL HAS A SHOT
Joe Mauer
David Wright

Those are my 10

Agree with most of these... However Mauer and Wright are both huge longshots with Mauer having a better chance. Mauer has had an invasion of a body snatcher experience and is not even close to what he was in 2007-2009. His power disappeared and his average has plummeted from his three batting titles. He is however a career .311 hitter and an MVP in `09 where he had one of the best years a catcher has in history. Wright was on serious track but injuries have cost him. No MVPs and no significant leading in any major category (Sac Flies twice). I like Wright, but I don't think he has a shot, and he's only getting worse.

[jmscoggin]

Agree with most of these... However Mauer and Wright are both huge longshots with Mauer having a better chance. Mauer has had an invasion of a body snatcher experience and is not even close to what he was in 2007-2009. His power disappeared and his average has plummeted from his three batting titles. He is however a career .311 hitter and an MVP in `09 where he had one of the best years a catcher has in history. Wright was on serious track but injuries have cost him. No MVPs and no significant leading in any major category (Sac Flies twice). I like Wright, but I don't think he has a shot, and he's only getting worse.

No way either come anywhere near my ballot if I was a voter, at least not based on current stats and career projections.

[jrosales]

IN:
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki

PROBABLE
Adrian Beltre

LIKELY (With a strong finish)
Felix Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Buster Posey

STILL HAS A SHOT
Joe Mauer
David Wright

Those are my 10

Disagree with Mauer and Wright, but the rest looks good.

I would add Cano to 'likely', and move Kershaw to at least 'probable' (as far as I'm concerned, he's already in once he reaches 10 seasons; also, if he gets injured tomorrow and is forced to retire, I believe the HOF would waive the 10-year rule, as they did for Addie Joss, based on his utter dominance).

Assuming he bounces back strongly and wins another CY or two, and he compiles more wins and strikeouts, I might put CC Sabathia in the 'still has a shot' category. But I think this may be asking too much of him.

[shortking98]

My top 10 in tiers:

Near Locks:
Ichiro
Albert Pujols

Most Likely:
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Beltre

Likely eventually:
David Ortiz
Carlos Beltran

Guys who aren't there yet but could reasonably make it with continued success:
Dustin Pedroia
Robinson Cano
CC Sabathia
Clayton Kershaw

[jhssketchcards]

I will go out on a limb now and say that Miguel Cabrera and Pujols are locks. I think Ichiro is as well especially if/when he gets 3000. I also feel that right now Kershaw is a HOF lock, not a 1st Ballot (as of now). If he wins another Cy Young he's 1st Ballot. Look at his stats and the dominance. 5 straight top 3 CY voting and 5 ERA titles. If there is one stat that shows a pitchers dominance it is ERA. The only pitchers in my mind that were ever better in a 5 year stretch were Koufax and Maddux in the last 60 years. Just my opinion though. LOL

[jrosales]

I will go out on a limb now and say that Miguel Cabrera and Pujols are locks. I think Ichiro is as well especially if/when he gets 3000. I also feel that right now Kershaw is a HOF lock, not a 1st Ballot (as of now). If he wins another Cy Young he's 1st Ballot. Look at his stats and the dominance. 5 straight top 3 CY voting and 5 ERA titles. If there is one stat that shows a pitchers dominance it is ERA. The only pitchers in my mind that were ever better in a 5 year stretch were Koufax and Maddux in the last 60 years. Just my opinion though. LOL

Nothing to go out on a limb about regarding Pujols. And Cabrera is a near-lock, based on his peak, as far as I'm concerned. I would vote for him.

[pdxprospect]

According to the hall of fame stats (I cannot recall where I read it), they stated that each year there is an average of 10 hall of famers in baseball.

With that in mind, if we took most of these lists AND assumed there were younger players who could make the hall, it would make this year an anomaly for a high amount of hall of famers. I am not sure what hte highest amount is, but I would imagine there are 2-5 players not on any of these lists that could potentially make the hall.

Do you think there could be 12-15+ hall of famers in baseball this year?

[pdxprospect]

Assuming there are only 10 hall of famers in the majors this season, I will present my (wild and assumptive) list:

1. Pujols
2. Ichiro
3. Cabrera
4. Beltre
5. Ortiz
6. Kershaw
7. Posey
8. Trout
9. Harper
10. Seager (A little biased here!)

[jstasyk1121]

i think Max Scherzer is gonna end up sneaking up on people.

he is older but its a bit misleading if you look at it. He is about to turn 32yrs old next month.

Career innings pitched: 1569

Kerhsaw is 28 and has more inn
Verlander is a little more than a year older and has like 600 more innings
Felix is younger but has about 800 more innings logged already

my point is that he is a "young" 32 when it comes to this so he might have much more in the tank going towards 35 then guys like JV/Felix...

so far he is sitting at:

113-66 record (.631)
3.45era
1569ip
448bb
1725 strikeouts already--not great for age ...but great for only 1560inn
ERA+ is 120 right now
WHIP is 1.16 right now(this has been improving big time since his early years)

has 1 CYA win and two other 5th place finishes in the last 3 years

many of his numbers have been improving pretty impressively year after year as well such as his strikeouts have kept going up, whip going down, h/9 down, bb/9 down, k/bb up, inning pitched up and so on....

just a hunch that this guy is gonna end up in the HOF one day.

also has multiple no-hitters on his resume which is one of those little extra stats that is always good to have to throw in there after the list of stats...

and has that 20k game which along with the no-no's is just a nice little footnote to have...

his career win total is never gonna get near 300...my guess: 200-225 range....but i think he could get to 3000k...and he could snag another CY from kershaw if kersh slacks off for a year lol...

[rainbowkiller]

A couple people listed Ortiz, but that's not very likely.

[Thinking]

i think Max Scherzer is gonna end up sneaking up on people.

he is older but its a bit misleading if you look at it. He is about to turn 32yrs old next month.

Career innings pitched: 1569

Kerhsaw is 28 and has more inn
Verlander is a little more than a year older and has like 600 more innings
Felix is younger but has about 800 more innings logged already

my point is that he is a "young" 32 when it comes to this so he might have much more in the tank going towards 35 then guys like JV/Felix...

so far he is sitting at:

113-66 record (.631)
3.45era
1569ip
448bb
1725 strikeouts already--not great for age ...but great for only 1560inn
ERA+ is 120 right now
WHIP is 1.16 right now(this has been improving big time since his early years)

has 1 CYA win and two other 5th place finishes in the last 3 years

many of his numbers have been improving pretty impressively year after year as well such as his strikeouts have kept going up, whip going down, h/9 down, bb/9 down, k/bb up, inning pitched up and so on....

just a hunch that this guy is gonna end up in the HOF one day.

also has multiple no-hitters on his resume which is one of those little extra stats that is always good to have to throw in there after the list of stats...

and has that 20k game which along with the no-no's is just a nice little footnote to have...

his career win total is never gonna get near 300...my guess: 200-225 range....but i think he could get to 3000k...and he could snag another CY from kershaw if kersh slacks off for a year lol...

Hopefully you are right. Seems like a good guy but he needs to do a lot more (as you mention).

He reminds me of Cole Hamels, who was equal or better stats in everything but wins/losses. I like Cole, but don't think he will get to HOF -- may end up the same story for Max.

[no10pin]

Article from USA Today on a similar subject. It's interesting to me that they have Beltran, Molina and Ortiz in their locks section.

8 active MLB players who would be Hall of Famers if they retired today | For The Win (http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/mlb-active-players-hall-of-fame-pujols-ichiro-kershaw-beltran)

[jmscoggin]

Article from USA Today on a similar subject. It's interesting to me that they have Beltran, Molina and Ortiz in their locks section.

8 active MLB players who would be Hall of Famers if they retired today | For The Win (http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/mlb-active-players-hall-of-fame-pujols-ichiro-kershaw-beltran)

"Interesting" or delusional? Not that any or all won't eventually make it but none of the three are "locks".

[jhssketchcards]

Another couple of guys who have outside to better shots at eventually making it are Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez. I lean more towards Teixeira with him approaching 2000 hits and 400 HR. His career .512 SLG is hard to ignore too. Solid defensive player as well along with 1200 plus RBI. I love AGon too, but he reminds me of the same career type as McGriff but with better average.

[jstasyk1121]

i object a bit to having beltre over miggy...but that is just my opinion...i think 2x MVP
Triple Crown winner
4x Batting Champ

outweighs beltre and his defensive advantage....but that is just me...

[PejaD]

"Interesting" or delusional? Not that any or all won't eventually make it but none of the three are "locks".

Mostly agree. Though I might move Cano into the list for 9.

[Skipscards]

Article from USA Today on a similar subject. It's interesting to me that they have Beltran, Molina and Ortiz in their locks section.

8 active MLB players who would be Hall of Famers if they retired today | For The Win (http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/mlb-active-players-hall-of-fame-pujols-ichiro-kershaw-beltran)

"Interesting" or delusional? Not that any or all won't eventually make it but none of the three are "locks".

This. Particularly considering they acknowledge ARod's PED use but completely glossed over Ortiz'.

On the other hand, they mentioned most of the players we've discussed in this thread.

http://img.pandawhale.com/post-19259-so-I-got-that-going-for-me-whi-sLmj.gif

[jmscoggin]

Mostly agree. Though I might move Cano into the list for 9.

I certainly think Cano has a solid shot, enough so that I bought an auto already in preparation for my HOF auto PC.

This. Particularly considering they acknowledge ARod's PED use but completely glossed over Ortiz'.

On the other hand, they mentioned most of the players we've discussed in this thread.

That's what got me too. It amazes me that so many people seem to just give him a pass or flat deny that he ever failed a test. Even more glaring, many of those exact same people (just like this author), demonize other players that have failed. Somehow Ortiz is ok but Bonds and A-roid aren't?

The above is what really ticked me off with the article but naming Beltran, Yadi and Ortiz as "locks" was just icing on the cake. A lock should be a hands down no doubter such as Ichiro or Pujols, these three are not that. They may get in but it is far from a guarantee and Ortiz only makes it when the steroid wall gets broken down. Even then, he will have plenty of detractors due to being a DH.