Starting Prospecting

[tribetown]

Hi everyone. I need some help. I have followed MLB for a bit now. I want to get into prospecting. I know some big prospects, but that is it. I have started to follow the local AAA team, and would love to start prospecting. I am hoping you guys can explain it to me. What are tips and tricks to it? Also, I assume Bowman is king, correct.

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[Big35Hurt]

Always remember tree fiddy and you will do just fine.

[Peties Army]

This should be good.

[JStaubs05283]

I would suggest looking at the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Scouting reports on all of the top prospects in each Minor League system. Best place to start.

[Firerunner4]

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/baseball/749110-how-do-you-start-prospecting.html

[tribetown]

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/baseball/749110-how-do-you-start-prospecting.html
Thank you! This was a nice help. Tomorrow, I will start researching. Hopefully I can get a little more advice.

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[Firerunner4]

Thank you! This was a nice help. Tomorrow, I will start researching. Hopefully I can get a little more advice.

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You're going to take some heat from the sacred prospectors here, don't take it personally. They don't like giving advice about entry into their secret club

Good luck! :D

[enbambam6986]

Download the MILB app to follow your players. Good luck and have fun!

[tribetown]

You're going to take some heat from the sacred prospectors here, don't take it personally. They don't like giving advice about entry into their secret club

Good luck! :D
Thanks for the warning! I will try to be a good member[emoji1]

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[dasiegel]

Check milb.com, read on here, study recent top 50 and top 100 lists and as well as team top 20/30 lists.

[Bob Loblaw]

I've done fairly well fan prospecting. What is fan prospecting? I don't know, I made it up.

I'm a fan of the Phillies. A die hard. To a sickening level. I live near Clearwater, so I am here for spring training, for the High A Clearwater Threshers, and the GCL rookie league Phillies.

I follow the players from the GCL up to Clearwater and continue to montor each team on a daily basis... I read the boxscores on milb.com, I read numerous Phillies-oriented minor league sites, and I use my own eyes to determine whether I want to invest in these guys.

I don't have the time or patience to try to invest with all teams. I love the Phillies, I follow the Phillies, so why not invest in what I know?

Ive been wrong many times, but it's great to be right - the player does well and the cards skyrocket in price. :)

[mjohnatgt]

Prospecting is a great way to lose money. Especially through box breaking. But if you have your heart set on it, there's a good book out there called "The Modern Baseball Card Investor" by Jeff Hwang.

[jrinne17]

Prospecting is all trial by error. Set a criteria and try to follow it.

[ericg531]

If you are strictly prospecting and not collecting, then the best thing I can tell you is avoid Leaf and unlicensed cards. They aren't worth a fraction of Topps cards. Collectors on the other hand like a little variety once in a while, but as far as prospecting Leaf is rough. I buy unlicensed cards of the guys I collect once in a while for like $5 an auto when the Bowman chrome auto is $25 or so.

You can spend a lot of money quick on boxes too, be careful. I spent way too much on wax, although I don't prospect anymore, so now I just buy singles of the players my son and I follow.

A lot has to go right to make a profit, you could be way up on a guy and he breaks his leg or something comes out of nowhere (sexual assault allegations and such) that completely devastates your investment. Buying and selling at the exact right moment is everything, and you can't tell if it was the right time to sell until much later on sometimes. Risky stuff, but fun if you've got the expendable income or if you turn a quick profit.

[tribetown]

Thanks everyone. I am a collector, and PC Grady Sizemore and Indians. I also collect football, and am working a few base sets along with a master set. I think prospecting will be fun, but a lot will be trail and error.

[BostonNut]

Buy high, sell low

[dasiegel]

Prospecting is a great way to lose money. Especially through box breaking. But if you have your heart set on it, there's a good book out there called "The Modern Baseball Card Investor" by Jeff Hwang.

Totally disagree that prospecting is a great way to lose money. Just the opposite.

Thanks everyone. I am a collector, and PC Grady Sizemore and Indians. I also collect football, and am working a few base sets along with a master set. I think prospecting will be fun, but a lot will be trail and error.

I think it will be more trial and error:p

[houstonrules51]

Yeah, there are always people complaining about prospecting and breaking boxes and how you lose money, but the fact is people profit off it all the time. Just be smart, hedge your risks and have a plan - the plan should not be to put it on credit and let it ride (not saying you would do this, OP, but that is how people get in trouble - they start gambling).

I came back in to the hobby a year and a half ago and I started just buying packs, then boxes, and now cases. Just be smart about when you sell and don't regret a sale. You are going to win some and lose some, its just the way it is so don't sweat it.

I would also second boblaw's fan prospecting. I collect all the dodger prospects when they come out and sometimes that pays off, but it is a win-win scenario because they are still my team so if I don't sell, so what. If they become Seager - score!

[smapdi]

The prospecting game can be a rough one. Some rules of thumb...

The game is to buy and sell cards for a profit, not pick who will be giving an induction speech 25 years from now. So the rules for this game are different from regular baseball talent evaluation. Successful prospectors will typically have taken their profit on a guy before he steps on a major league field. Factors include: age vs. league, ratio stats over counting stats, year-over-year improvement, what the parent club is, who is ahead of him at his position, general reputation and hype, basically everything except triple crown stats. Ratings from KLaw, BA, etc, are important because if you take them with a grain of salt, know that most others take them as gospel, and you can use that.

Buy low, sell for more. You don't have to hit a home run every time. And usually waiting for cards to "top out" can often mean you're missing the run up, and miss the peak time of saleability. "Leave the last 10% for the other guy" is a true cliche. A 10% profit is still a profit, and "no one went broke making a profit" is another, but it's better to get the 90%.

Don't break boxes. Yes, it's the only way to get a Moncada gold refractor for $4, but will you? so much of the price of the box is for the fun of ripping. But you can't resell fun.

Don't fall in love with your investment stock. It's a lot harder to sell when you do. Nothing wrong with turning a good prospecting pick into the cornerstone of a collection, though.

Don't invest in pitchers. Sure, lots of prospectors do, and sure, everyone would like to have bought Kershaw back in 2006, but there are a lot more frustrations with pitchers than hitters. I've got some nice Matt Moore cards to show you.

Don't get lazy about selling. I could've profited on Moore, and others, but I just never got around to it. Also, I started turning into a fan and enjoyed owning my cards. Windows for sales can be extremely short, don't be shy about doing it. And once you sell, don't worry about money left on the table. There are tons of people with stories of selling their Trout RCs for $250 instead of $1250, and those stories are boring.

Prospecting means digging in the dirt of unexplored valleys, not waiting for the next call from your broker in your front row seat on the stock exchange. Ryon Healy cards were just sitting there for three years, you could have bought them at any point for half what they go for today. Who bought them?

Conversely, you probably don't want to follow the crowd. An unheralded call-up can spark a run, but by the time you buy and receive the cards in the mail, they might be dead. Sean Casey was red hot for about 8 days once, and only once.

Stay away from the top (most expensive) prospects, practice the "buy low" part. This is debatable, because every year there are some guys who are really enticing, and "once in a generation" guys come along every 2 or 3 years. Moncada, Benintendi, Seager, Bregman, etc., are so high right now, and I think it would take some real achievement to move them appreciably higher. For the price of 1 Moncada, you could get 10 or 20 cards of other very good but much-less-hyped players and come out way ahead with diversified risk and greater raw growth potential. Yes, someone did buy Trout at $250, but really, what are the odds?

Think in terms of years, if possible. Baseball seasons are long, and careers are loooong, and many collectors have tiny attention spans. Bowman cards mostly come out when guys are years away from the majors. Unless the guy has a real breakout year, it's going to be a slow build. When I was heavily into it, I would plan on three-year timelines, and given that scope could almost always find a time to sell for a profit (but I still had my share of misses).

Buy quality over quantity. There are pros and cons to this approach, but I'd rather have a nice gold refractor for the price of 5 base cards. And don't buy any cards with noticeable flaws, especially centering, unless you're getting a really good deal.

Cultivate information from the usual and unusual sources. Successful prospectors look for info almost every day, and not just on the front page of a website.

[jmscoggin]

Happiest days of my life;

* When I started prospecting.
* When I stopped prospecting.

I kid but there is truth in it too. Be careful overextending yourself and be prepared for the amount of homework you will need to do. I'd go into more detail but the guys above have already covered most of the bases, good luck.

[rainbowkiller]

In the mid-to-late 90s, people called prospecting 'touting' and soon thereafter called prospectors 'chromies', LOL.

Touting has been around for centuries and so isn't new, it just makes whatever's being sold more expensive than what it would otherwise should be. Topps makes use of this to make current cards seem more desirable to drive sales.

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=339714&stc=1&d=1468947420

In any event, a good prospector follows the rules for being a good tout.

[possom813]

You're guaranteed to make a small fortune prospecting, as long as you start with a large fortune...

[NickM]

Pitchers are higher risk. They can also be very high reward.

Do not rule them out categorically.

[Dbacksbaseball]

I just pick out a guy close to the bigs and under the radar and a younger further away under the radar guy every year. If I hit, so be it, if I miss not much damage to the wallet.

I can't full blown prospect, no disrespect to the hardcore guys, but something feels very Herbert from family guy, about scouting kids and collecting cards of the kids on the U-15 and U-17 teams.

[tribetown]

Cool! Thanks everyone for the posts and PMs. I have found a guy I like, and his base autos are about 6$ each. I also enjoy going to minor league games, which I think will help a little. I also like the fan prospect idea. At worst, a pay money for an autograph of a bust, but it can still stay in my Indian PC, instead of a total flop.

[sickmantz]

Keep your GROSS annual receipts through Paypal under $20k.

[Skipscards]

In the mid-to-late 90s, people called prospecting 'touting' and soon thereafter called prospectors 'chromies', LOL.

Touting has been around for centuries and so isn't new, it just makes whatever's being sold more expensive than what it would otherwise should be. Topps makes use of this to make current cards seem more desirable to drive sales.


In any event, a good prospector follows the rules for being a good tout.

Now it should be called Trouting.

[jmscoggin]

Now it should be called Trouting.

Lol, talk about an understatement. I bet he's been responsible for more missed mortgage payments than the average Vegas blackjack dealer has. He gave far too many people false hope and wishful dreams.

[rainbowkiller]

Now it should be called Trouting.

Ha, either way it involves fishing for something... I like it... it sounds better than scalping... but maybe that's what touting is called for farm team guys on the Braves or Indians?!

[Skipscards]

Lol, talk about an understatement. I bet he's been responsible for more missed mortgage payments than the average Vegas blackjack dealer has. He gave far too many people false hope and wishful dreams.

Ha, either way it involves fishing for something... I like it... it sounds better than scalping... but maybe that's what touting is called for farm team guys on the Braves or Indians?!


This just proves that even a broken clock is right twice a day. :)!

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