Interesting article about the rise of prices for collectables

[cp3fan]

https://blog.collectors.com/2017/02/the-feds-role-in-skyrocketing-collectible-values/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=marketingemail&utm_campaign=email-collectors-com-newsletter-2017feb24-values

What does everyone think?

[AbraCalabro]

Pete Putman knows what's up:

This is a bit of oversimplification. There are numerous factors driving these price increases, and no mention was made of the fact that many high-grade common and semi-star player cards from the 1950s and 1960s have come down recently - a lot. From all appearances, it seems like the rapid price appreciation for Mantle, Aaron, Clemente, and other rookies was due to market manipulation, with "straw man" sales helping to drive up prices. This has happened before with other collectibles, especially artworks. (It also happened about two decades ago with animation art.) The low interest rates ertainly motivate investors to look elsewhere to find better returns, but it's too easy to stage fake sales and drive up market prices. Not only that, 'flippers' got into the market with lower-grade examples of these cards looking to turn them over quickly...and I suspect that now, it's mostly other 'flippers" who they're trying to sell to. Does all of this constitute a bubble? With the decline in prices of high-end common players and semi-stars, I suspect some of the air has come out already. At the National, I saw dozens of Clemente rookies in mid-grade to near mint condition. They're certainly not scarce. At what point do sale prices start to drop again? (Keep track of the big auctions this spring, like REA, if you want to follow pricing trends.)

God bless you, papi.

[chris_ac]

The revealing part is in the comment section. One guy think it's just artificially inflated prices like the buyers groups we mention here on the boards. Another thinks it's just the rich looking for the next big thing to bet on. I tend to agree because the article is referring to cards and comics in the 5 to 6 figure range, is quite frankly just for the wealthy, which based on the data I've seen is maybe 10% of the country. Not enough to get excited about. Also, once millenials are a few decades older, this whole vintage era cards and comics won't be reveling in the big bucks because they won't give a hoot about Mantle, Aaron, Gretzky possibly. Jordan still has lasting legacy thanks to the 90s. Some comics will be fine like the biggest names of Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, but overall the wealthy millenials who get tickled to bid on this stuff will be much smaller pool imho.

[AbraCalabro]

The revealing part is in the comment section. One guy think it's just artificially inflated prices like the buyers groups we mention here on the boards. Another thinks it's just the rich looking for the next big thing to bet on. I tend to agree because the article is referring to cards and comics in the 5 to 6 figure range, is quite frankly just for the wealthy, which based on the data I've seen is maybe 10% of the country. Not enough to get excited about. Also, once millenials are a few decades older, this whole vintage era cards and comics won't be reveling in the big bucks because they won't give a hoot about Mantle, Aaron, Gretzky possibly. Jordan still has lasting legacy thanks to the 90s. Some comics will be fine like the biggest names of Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, but overall the wealthy millenials who get tickled to bid on this stuff will be much smaller pool imho.

I've been saying this for a long, long time now and I of course, completely agree with you. You look at a lot of the legends from the bygone eras and generally people don't give a crap about them, or their cards, because they've never heard of them, never watched them play and their cards are old and "crappy." The majority of people don't even recognize the names of the majority of the NBA's 50 greatest, they just don't care, they're not endeared to any of it.

The same will happen with a lot of the 90s guys and these cards that people are paying "new car", in some cases, "new house" money will plummet. We can talk about Jordan prices soaring like the ever lasting eagle all we want, but time does not wait for anyone and will eventually leave him and others behind. The kids now are into Jordan shoes, more than they are into Jordan's legacy as a basketball player and the same goes for his cards.

[jjohnson814]

I've always been interested to know what this community thinks about the long term future of the card collecting hobby. An interesting thing pointed out in the comments section was that the prices of semi-stars and common players have fallen and as the article points out the prices of super stars has grown dramatically.

I think we'll see the same thing happen with basketball cards, especially the Panini era. We're seeing the beginning of this with the increase in prices of 90's cards and chrome rookies. The newer generation of collectors will be more scarce and will only want the best and rarest cards. I think LeBron prices will continue to rise over time while other players will fall. That's why I think you either collect LeBron if you actually plan to keep as an investment long term and anything just collect what makes you happy.

[duron]

While much of what was mentioned in the article is certainly true, it also leaves out more important factors which have already been mentioned.

Shame that it could reinforce further blind faith.

[8collector34]

I do not necessarily disagree with Chris and Abra, but I have another point to raise. I dont think the guy who buys a Mantle for $1.7M does that, because he is the biggest Yankee fan, and even if he is, he also does it for investment. How many percentage of people who bought Curry, KAT, Wiggins in the past couple of years do you think are fans? And even if they are, do you think they do not expect to see their cards to have value? If I have not have my hands full with 90s cards, I would love to get into vintage baseball, and I have not even seen a full game of baseball in my life. People will buy into cards because they need an alternative place for their money than a bank, just like the article says. Plus if you add how much fun it is to collect, why on earth would you not get into it? Cards are not marketed to kids anymore, they are marketed to adults with money to play around with, so we cannot compare it to the situation in the past, but that does not conclude that most cards will hit rock bottom. At least not in our lifetime. If anything, I think people who grow up in the digital age will appreciate things they have a physical connection to much more than we do. Especially when it will come to their wealth.

[6celtics33]

That's why i always find it funny to see basketball prospect threads where people are spending fortunes on Embiid or Giannis. If you plan to hold for awhile I'd pick out the ultimate cream of the crop in any sport or else like has been said they will be forgotten sooner rather than later.