When will the luck hype die out

[Briangreenburg]

Dont get my wrong I love luck and think he is great but is value just seems so high for someone who hasnt really done anything. Or is it just me


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[37Jetson]

Seems to be following the career trajectory of Matt Stafford.

[TheFrenzy]

Yet another reason to never buy 1st Round/Phenom Rookies. (Luck, Winston, Johnny Football, Dak)

For 99% of these rookies, there is a 99% chance their cards will never be worth more than they are in their first season. It's all downhill. If you want to buy current rookies, buy look for late-round and undrafted prospects.

[MFaulkCollector]

Seems to be following the career trajectory of Matt Stafford.

Stafford did not have winning years in 4 of his first 5 seasons.... or have a 43-27 career record.

As for the OP..... Luck had a 31;13 year last year in which he had efficiency numbers better than any year of his career. He is the prototype drop back NFL passer with some mobility; so investors/collectors probably see a career that will go another 10 years. If that is true his career is only 30% over

His talent level is off the charts, his work ethic is good.... the recipe is there for him to be a top 3 NFL QB for a big window of time. Whether or not that happens doesn't really matter...... the fact is; very few other guys have an upside like that who have already proven themselves in the league as both being able to win regular season games and post season games.

I think the hype on him as the next top 5 QB in NFL history has died... but there is no good reason to think he won't continue to win 10ish games a year and play well statistically.

[TheFrenzy]

Stafford did not have winning years in 4 of his first 5 seasons.... or have a 43-27 career record.

As for the OP..... Luck had a 31;13 year last year in which he had efficiency numbers better than any year of his career. He is the prototype drop back NFL passer with some mobility; so investors/collectors probably see a career that will go another 10 years. If that is true his career is only 30% over

His talent level is off the charts, his work ethic is good.... the recipe is there for him to be a top 3 NFL QB for a big window of time. Whether or not that happens doesn't really matter...... the fact is; very few other guys have an upside like that who have already proven themselves in the league as both being able to win regular season games and post season games.

I think the hype on him as the next top 5 QB in NFL history has died... but there is no good reason to think he won't continue to win 10ish games a year and play well statistically.

So........Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, Andy Dalton?

EDIT: I see the "win post season game". And that might seperate him a bit from the Romos and Rivers, but still not enough playoff success to move him into that "winner" category.

[IronMonkey415]

As long as the beard neck is still in style his hype will always be there.

[Hoop]

Pretty sure the hype has died down because everyone is falling off the bandwagon and I'm able to pick up quite a few of my top cards at much more reasonable prices ....

[packfan15412]

Considering how many teams would love to have him as their starting qb... they hype will always be there

[MFaulkCollector]

So........Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, Andy Dalton?

EDIT: I see the "win post season game". And that might seperate him a bit from the Romos and Rivers, but still not enough playoff success to move him into that "winner" category.

Andrew Luck through 5 seasons has a career 43-27 record..... he has a 3-3 post season record. He generally wins games and has won some playoff games. The question was about hype dying down. Nothing he has done to this point would make you think he won't be good moving far into the future

Romo hype was huge at points and would have skyrocketed even more with a SB win or two. Rivers the same.... people realize Dalton is not a face of the franchise type guy... Romo, Rivers, they are... and had big hype at points during their career for good reason

Plus.... even when hype was big for Rivers and Romo, they never saw anything like the prices Luck has seen. That ceiling for Luck shows you the money will be there again if he is able to reach some of those expectations. People realize the almost limitless ceiling on Luck if he pans out... and some are still buying in fairly high knowing the money will be there if he plays well enough to cash out.

Plus Luck still has the title of being the best QB prospect since Elway... that matters. The skill, mindset, tools, everything is there for him. It just needs to come together; whether he can do it is still to be seen.

[rexvos]

When he gets an offensive line and a running game, maybe a top shelf defense and a first rate head coach.

[asujbl]

As long as the beard neck is still in style his hype will always be there.

Neck beard.

Get the order right

[jtalsma83]

When are people going to realize that having a good QB isn't the only thing needed to win football games?

[twisty571]

When are people going to realize that having a good QB isn't the only thing needed to win football games?

Mr.Faulkcollector doesn't understand that at all......

[Ferg1945]

They hype has died down. Let's see how the Colts are now with a real GM making decisions. If he can improve the defense ( only Browns and 49ers allowed more yards ) and Luck doesn't have to do everything to get a victory.... the hype will return.

Will turn 28 shortly into the 2017 season... last year 63% Comp... 4,200 yards... 31 TDs... 13 INTs... 96.4 Rating

[RogerGodahell]

It's unfortunate for him but he is living in Tom Brady's world, and that includes Derk Carr as well. It's really hard for any QB in the AFC to get past the Patriots in the playoffs and go to the super bowl. You can almost automatically pencil the Patriots in the AFC championship every year.

The only teams to appear in the Super Bowls for the AFC since 2000 are the Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders once in 2002. Patriots have been in the AFC Championship 6 years in a row and Brady has been in the AFC Championship 11 times.

And now Brady say's he want's to play for 6 or 7 more years. Derek Carr and Luck could be 33-34 years old by the time Brady retires. It's tough but not much they can really do about it except defeat Goliath.

[oplum29]

Dont get my wrong I love luck and think he is great but is value just seems so high for someone who hasnt really done anything. Or is it just me


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yeah I agree on both points.

I like Luck, but $700 for the Contenders is insane. I think $400-500 sounds about right.

and $2K for the NT is crazy too, like you said, for a QB who hasn't won a SB or anything yet.

and the way things are looking right now, he may not get one for a very long time with the Patriots and Raiders in play.

[ninjacookies]

The Bryce Harper of football in terms of the pre-draft hype and career projection whilst underachieving.

Except that Bryce already has an MVP under his belt and is much younger.

[oplum29]

The Bryce Harper of football in terms of the pre-draft hype and career projection whilst underachieving.

Except that Bryce already has an MVP under his belt and is much younger.

you said it...MVP.

And Harper is what...not even 25?

[ninjacookies]

you said it...MVP.

And Harper is what...not even 25?

It's crazy that's he's only 24 and already in his 6th year. Was basically a baby when he came in.

[WSU11]

you said it...MVP.



And Harper is what...not even 25?



It's crazy that's he's only 24 and already in his 6th year. Was basically a baby when he came in.



You guys better be careful. I know a bunch of guys from the baseball forum that will be pissed if this turns into another Bryce Harper thread. Look out!!


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[Skybox]

The only reason it's still considered "hype" is because the Colts are a poorly run franchise & the talent around him is below average ... Especially on the O line ... There are about 28 teams that would trade their starting QB for Luck straight up

[ninjacookies]

The only reason it's still considered "hype" is because the Colts are a poorly run franchise & the talent around him is below average ... Especially on the O line ... There are about 28 teams that would trade their starting QB for Luck straight up

I think it's all about the 'once in a generational talent' tag.

Only get one of these guys every 10-20 years.

Harper, Lebron, and Luck. Some may argue Wiggins to an extent, and I'd place him in that Luck/Harper category in terms of falling short of early projections.

People will almost always still pay premium prices in the hopes these players pan out based on prototypical skillsets. I'd say once age starts to creep in then people start pulling back as they begin to factor in chances at the HOF and championship odds. Which are really the true indicators of lasting value.

[Archangel1775]

When he gets an offensive line and a running game, maybe a top shelf defense and a first rate head coach.

lol, there are 25 other QB's that would be pretty damn amazing if they had all that!

[Seahawks fan]

He's a good qb no doubt but if you play in a division with the Texans, Titans, and Jaguars and come out 3rd place and the winner is only at 9-7... You will get no love. All these excuses about his team but you don't need a good team to win that division.

[Chaddie84]

He's a good qb no doubt but if you play in a division with the Texans, Titans, and Jaguars and come out 3rd place and the winner is only at 9-7... You will get no love. All these excuses about his team but you don't need a good team to win that division.

Imagine Luck on the Texans. Instant contender.

[DMACcollector]

yeah I agree on both points.

I like Luck, but $700 for the Contenders is insane. I think $400-500 sounds about right.

and $2K for the NT is crazy too, like you said, for a QB who hasn't won a SB or anything yet.

and the way things are looking right now, he may not get one for a very long time with the Patriots and Raiders in play.

You think Luck's prices are high? What about the ridiculous amounts people want for Zeke Elliot? He's a f%#cking running back with one season under his belt and a penchant for doing stupid things off the field. At least Luck is a QB with a few very nice seasons and not a risk for suspensions.

[dcallow]

yeah I agree on both points.



I like Luck, but $700 for the Contenders is insane. I think $400-500 sounds about right.



and $2K for the NT is crazy too, like you said, for a QB who hasn't won a SB or anything yet.



and the way things are looking right now, he may not get one for a very long time with the Patriots and Raiders in play.



Rather have a Winston at $130 then Luck at $400-500 but I'm extremely biased


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[RogerGodahell]

$700 isn't too bad for Luck. People were selling them for like $2-4K two years ago weren't they? People are still asking a lot because they've got so much money in it they don't want to come down too low.

[Bigshot69]

Luck really needs a RB, 2 more WRs, a defense and maybe a new head coach. His injury 2 seasons ago did not help matters either. In terms of speculation, it really boils down to how close you feel he is to winning a Super Bowl? IMO, not very close and probably further from that goal as of this moment than Winston. I'm still a bit bearish on the Luck cards at the current levels.

[UncleRico]

Luck really needs a RB, 2 more WRs, a defense and maybe a new head coach. His injury 2 seasons ago did not help matters either. In terms of speculation, it really boils down to how close you feel he is to winning a Super Bowl? IMO, not very close and probably further from that goal as of this moment than Winston. I'm still a bit bearish on the Luck cards at the current levels.

As long as Brady stays healthy Luck will never have a chance at getting a ring.

[oplum29]

You think Luck's prices are high? What about the ridiculous amounts people want for Zeke Elliot? He's a f%#cking running back with one season under his belt and a penchant for doing stupid things off the field. At least Luck is a QB with a few very nice seasons and not a risk for suspensions.

I know what you're saying, but the thread is about Luck being in the league since 2012, and yet, his prices are crazy high.

You'd think they would have leveled off at some point.

The Contenders autograph rookie is still in the $700 range and I think the NT is around $2K.

This despite 0 SB appearances or league MVPs.

He's a hell of a QB, don't get me wrong, I really like him, but the prices don't exactly match the resume if you know what I mean.

[twisty571]

I picked up a Luck 2012 Prestige Auto BGS 9.5 w/10 Auto for $150! A couple years ago that card Raw I couldn't touch for under $250! Hell I don't remember any Luck 9.5 Auto RC's being under $500!

[oplum29]

Rather have a Winston at $130 then Luck at $400-500 but I'm extremely biased


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Mariota has higher upside right now, and is cheaper, than Luck.

[MFaulkCollector]

Mariota has higher upside right now, and is cheaper, than Luck.

This comment is cute...... No spread option type of college QB has ever translated consistently to the NFL; you may have a good year or two, but the overall style of play just doesn't translate long term.. whether it be too much of a learning curve, lack of top notch passing skills, etc

Pro style QB's have a pedigree of being the best QB's in history... Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Marino, Elway, Kelly, Aikman, Brees, Roethlisbeger, Moon, Unitas, insert other NFL great

To a point you have to assume history has happened this way for a reason.... regardless of how good Newton, Mariota, Vick, Kaep, have looked at times... nobody has prospered from this type of offensive background longer than a few years

[Cactuspies]

I came across a really sad card on ebay last night. It was a triple auto card of RG3/Blackmon/Richardson

Man what a let down

[RogerGodahell]

This comment is cute...... No spread option type of college QB has ever translated consistently to the NFL; you may have a good year or two, but the overall style of play just doesn't translate long term.. whether it be too much of a learning curve, lack of top notch passing skills, etc

Pro style QB's have a pedigree of being the best QB's in history... Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Marino, Elway, Kelly, Aikman, Brees, Roethlisbeger, Moon, Unitas, insert other NFL great

To a point you have to assume history has happened this way for a reason.... regardless of how good Newton, Mariota, Vick, Kaep, have looked at times... nobody has prospered from this type of offensive background longer than a few years

Winston played a pro style offense in college. :D

[oplum29]

This comment is cute...... No spread option type of college QB has ever translated consistently to the NFL; you may have a good year or two, but the overall style of play just doesn't translate long term.. whether it be too much of a learning curve, lack of top notch passing skills, etc

Pro style QB's have a pedigree of being the best QB's in history... Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Marino, Elway, Kelly, Aikman, Brees, Roethlisbeger, Moon, Unitas, insert other NFL great

To a point you have to assume history has happened this way for a reason.... regardless of how good Newton, Mariota, Vick, Kaep, have looked at times... nobody has prospered from this type of offensive background longer than a few years


honestly, MOST college QBs now come from the spread option offense.

In saying that, Mariota has progressed exactly as most coaches would want, on the upswing.

mind you that he's got no real options at WR other than Delaine Walker, and maybe Sharpe.

Add in a solid WR like Mike Williams in April, and Mariota has the Titans in the playoffs. They were in the thick of it until he got hurt.

[oplum29]

nobody has prospered from this type of offensive background longer than a few years

Alex Smith? :D

[Cavaliercards]

Shh or the buyer's club will see this and start buying.

[Hess687]

Andrew Luck looks like a human to werewolf transformation got stuck at 67%

[asujbl]

Andrew Luck looks like a human to werewolf transformation got stuck at 67%

If you're going to post a 3 year old joke at least give some credit...

[Briangreenburg]

What happened to the guy that bought every contenders auto a few years back

[pgisback]

He still has potential, but the only thing that has made his career semi-decent is playing in the AFC South. His numbers are incredibly over inflated playing in that trash division. What is he like 18-2 (haven't looked in a while) in the AFC South and a .500 qb outside of it? The fact you can buy 3 contenders Gem Russell Wilsons for the price of 1 Luck is crazy.

[pgisback]

What happened to the guy that bought every contenders auto a few years back

Dude made a fortune. Recently bought like a 100 Lebron GEM chrome rookies... but also probably took a pretty large hit on the Blake Bortles hype. He had an insane Cracked Ice/National Treasures collection. The NT collection was pretty cool to look at, have to find that thread.

[Hess687]

If you're going to post a 3 year old joke at least give some credit...

Whoops! Sorry! I was unaware jokes had expiration dates.

Credit goes to the Dan LeBatard Show w/ Stugotz for that joke.

[Briangreenburg]

What was his bo name

[RogerGodahell]

He still has potential, but the only thing that has made his career semi-decent is playing in the AFC South. His numbers are incredibly over inflated playing in that trash division. What is he like 18-2 (haven't looked in a while) in the AFC South and a .500 qb outside of it? The fact you can buy 3 contenders Gem Russell Wilsons for the price of 1 Luck is crazy.

Yeah it's something like that. I haven't looked in a while either.

[dfr52]

The only reason it's still considered "hype" is because the Colts are a poorly run franchise & the talent around him is below average ... Especially on the O line ... There are about 28 teams that would trade their starting QB for Luck straight up

I agree, Luck has had to carry the franchise since his rookie season and playing in a weaker division has helped as well. A lot of teams would love to have him as their starter since he is one of if not the best QB with 5 years or less experience. The Colts should be embarrassed for failing to build a better OL to protect him. That should of been their priority every year in the draft and free agency.

[pgisback]

What was his bo name

NeedChapmans

[RogerGodahell]

I agree, Luck has had to carry the franchise since his rookie season and playing in a weaker division has helped as well. A lot of teams would love to have him as their starter since he is one of if not the best QB with 5 years or less experience. The Colts should be embarrassed for failing to build a better OL to protect him. That should of been their priority every year in the draft and free agency.


http://i1229.photobucket.com/albums/ee468/Achilleswrath1/2ef1966e607c38c75501b3a464b389f6.jpg (http://s1229.photobucket.com/user/Achilleswrath1/media/2ef1966e607c38c75501b3a464b389f6.jpg.html)

[majestik101]

I think it's a fair assessment to say he's injury prone. Sure he puts up great numbers, but there's always the possibility his body will eventually give out.

Andrew Luck of Indianapolis Colts admits shoulder initially injured vs. Tennessee Titans in 2015 (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19179526/andrew-luck-indianapolis-colts-admits-shoulder-initially-injured-vs-tennessee-titans-2015)

[IronMonkey415]

NECK BEARD is the correct wording.

Somewhere up there I said BEARD NECK.

Had to correct myself and to show that I DO PROOF READ

[MeteoriteGuy]

When will the luck hype die out?

2016

[caulaflour]

Had to correct myself and to show that I DO PROOF READ

If you actually did, you'd have caught your mistake in the quoted material above. I'll let you find it on your own. :)

[asujbl]

NECK BEARD is the correct wording.

Somewhere up there I said BEARD NECK.

Had to correct myself and to show that I DO PROOF READ

You read Post #11

[rman112]

I think it's a fair assessment to say he's injury prone. Sure he puts up great numbers, but there's always the possibility his body will eventually give out.

Andrew Luck of Indianapolis Colts admits shoulder initially injured vs. Tennessee Titans in 2015 (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19179526/andrew-luck-indianapolis-colts-admits-shoulder-initially-injured-vs-tennessee-titans-2015)

No surprise that he's been playing hurt for a while. Was easy to see.

[Nyfancam01]

I would literally SELL all the luck stuff I had if I had any.....

sell now. An atrocious season coming up for him folks. Get what you can get NOW

[Siberian13]

What was the highest price for a base contenders going for?

[oplum29]

What was the highest price for a base contenders going for?

I said $500-700, but I actually have seen some sell for around $450, which kinda shocked me.

[Siberian13]

I said $500-700, but I actually have seen some sell for around $450, which kinda shocked me.

I think those are current prices. I meant when hype was the craziest. Were they going for more than Brady contenders auto?

[oplum29]

I think those are current prices. I meant when hype was the craziest. Were they going for more than Brady contenders auto?

I consistently saw them in the $700+ range for ungraded versions, which I thought at the time was crazy.

[Siberian13]

I consistently saw them in the $700+ range for ungraded versions, which I thought at the time was crazy.

Ok so none of the base sold for $2k-$4k. Just making sure cause that seems like a crap load for that card. Must be the cracked ice ones or something. Thanks

[KandJ]

I purchased Luck's contenders rc the week the set was released for $450. I sold the card ungraded for $990 right before last season.

[oplum29]

I purchased Luck's contenders rc the week the set was released for $450. I sold the card ungraded for $990 right before last season.

nice!

[GBfanLA]

like i keep saying, ill be enjoying my 10$ dak and zeke in a years time! :D i dont get all the goof balls pouring $$ into hot$hit rookies

[jasonm2121]

He needs some winning, that is tough with Pagano.

[RogerGodahell]

Derek Carr has a better chance of winning with the Raiders...well, because they're just a better team. I'm pretty sure Lucks base contenders were selling well over $1k two years ago.

[Skootown]

Let's not forget:

Peyton didn't win a Super Bowl until his 9th year
Marino never won a Super Bowl

It's not like Luck is 35 years old and never won anything. He has tons of time to do so, and anyone who watches him play can see he is elite.

Luck was drafted in 2012. Anyone drafted that year or since that you'd rather have as your team's QB? Nope.

[asujbl]

Ok so none of the base sold for $2k-$4k. Just making sure cause that seems like a crap load for that card. Must be the cracked ice ones or something. Thanks

Not raw.

I got over $2,000 for my Contenders 9.5/10 at it's peak

[Siberian13]

Not raw.

I got over $2,000 for my Contenders 9.5/10 at it's peak

I wasn't around during the peak. What were the raw costs of a Brady and Luck at that time? Just trying to see how absurd it was. Example: Brady $1500 and Luck $750?

[MeteoriteGuy]

Let's not forget:

Peyton didn't win a Super Bowl until his 9th year
Marino never won a Super Bowl

It's not like Luck is 35 years old and never won anything. He has tons of time to do so, and anyone who watches him play can see he is elite.

Luck was drafted in 2012. Anyone drafted that year or since that you'd rather have as your team's QB? Nope.

"Winning"

Only Sheen or someone with blinders on could look at Luck's career so far and see it as anything over mediocre.

2016 proved his critics right. The only reason Luck got to the playoffs in the past, to lose in the first round, is he was in the worst division in the NFL.

[asujbl]

I wasn't around during the peak. What were the raw costs of a Brady and Luck at that time? Just trying to see how absurd it was. Example: Brady $1500 and Luck $750?

I don't really recall what raw copies of Brady were going for but I think the gap was closer than that.

It was definitely closer on some other other big names guys when you compared the same grade.

I remember making a comment in a Luck thread that you could have Ben Contenders 9.5/10, Manning Contenders 9.5/10, and Wilson Contenders 9.5/10 and still have money left over compared to Luck Contenders 9.5/10

And it was true. I bought my Roethlisberger Contenders 9.5/10 at the time for $600... when Luck was going for $2,000

[TheVolta]

2016 proved his critics right. The only reason Luck got to the playoffs in the past, to lose in the first round, is he was in the worst division in the NFL.

Except Luck took Indy to the second round in 2013 and the afc championship in 2014

[Skootown]

"Winning"

Only Sheen or someone with blinders on could look at Luck's career so far and see it as anything over mediocre.

2016 proved his critics right. The only reason Luck got to the playoffs in the past, to lose in the first round, is he was in the worst division in the NFL.

Obviously you're not a golfer.

[Chrisp253]

"Winning"

Only Sheen or someone with blinders on could look at Luck's career so far and see it as anything over mediocre.

2016 proved his critics right. The only reason Luck got to the playoffs in the past, to lose in the first round, is he was in the worst division in the NFL.
This is silly.. im a wilson fan but i cant believe anyone thinks his career has been mediocre. Has it lived up to the hype? No ofcourse not.. but nobody coulda lived up to that hype imo. He has still been one of the best young qbs in history. I expect both him and wilson to have big seasons this upcoming year. Both have been stuck behind inept o lines and last season they were both pressing due to inadequacies all over the field. You act like luck has been no better than blaine gabbert which is just absurd.

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[Chaddie84]

He needs some winning, that is tough with Pagano.

http://nocoastbias.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/epicfail.0.gif

[Siberian13]

Matt Ryan 2015 vs. 2016 is a good example, I think. Matt Ryan is so thankful for Alex Mack.

[majestik101]

http://nocoastbias.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/epicfail.0.gif

Pagano should have been fired on the spot for that. How he has still held the position of head coach is beyond me, and as long as he's coach, Andrew Luck will be hampered by his team and organization.

[Siberian13]

Pagano should have been fired on the spot for that. How he has still held the position of head coach is beyond me, and as long as he's coach, Andrew Luck will be hampered by his team and organization.

I'm sure what Chuck went through in his personal life has a lot to do with it.

[majestik101]

OK, and that was how long ago? Pretty soon that won't be a valid excuse anymore.

[RogerGodahell]

I wasn't around during the peak. What were the raw costs of a Brady and Luck at that time? Just trying to see how absurd it was. Example: Brady $1500 and Luck $750?


Raw Brady's we're going for about $1100, 9's we're $1800 9.5's were like 6k or so. But the gems are super rare which I'm sure you're aware, there's only like 15 of them.

[Siberian13]

OK, and that was how long ago? Pretty soon that won't be a valid excuse anymore.

It's not an excuse to begin with but people sympathize and let things slide.

[ninjacookies]

He just underwent shoulder surgery.

Apparently he said it's been bothering him quietly for years. We'll see if this changes things.

[RogerGodahell]

He just underwent shoulder surgery.

Apparently he said it's been bothering him quietly for years. We'll see if this changes things.

It was rotator cuff surgery right? That's not usually very encouraging. But those types of surgeries including the Tommy John surgery and ACL tears have come a long long ways in the last 20 years. Back 25 years ago any of those injuries were pretty much a career death sentence. Now guys bounce back a year later just like new.

[twisty571]

Raw Brady's we're going for about $1100, 9's we're $1800 9.5's were like 6k or so. But the gems are super rare which I'm sure you're aware, there's only like 15 of them.

I don't remember them being that high when the high price Luck Contenders were running crazy. I remember being able to get a Brady for less than a Luck. I am pretty sure I pointed that out a couple times :confused: Maybe I am thinking a graded Luck against a Raw Brady?

[asujbl]

I don't remember them being that high when the high price Luck Contenders were running crazy. I remember being able to get a Brady for less than a Luck. I am pretty sure I pointed that out a couple times :confused: Maybe I am thinking a graded Luck against a Raw Brady?

You are but the point is still valid

9.5/10 Luck Contenders were going for more than 8.5/10 Brady Contenders at the time.

Like I mentioned above you could buy three Ben Rothelisbrger Contenders 9.5/10's for the cost of a single Luck.

People were insane.

[Siberian13]

You are but the point is still valid

9.5/10 Luck Contenders were going for more than 8.5/10 Brady Contenders at the time.

Like I mentioned above you could buy three Ben Rothelisbrger Contenders 9.5/10's for the cost of a single Luck.

People were insane.

What do Dak and Zeke sell for currently? Are all Zeke's bought up or were they redemptions or something. I couldn't find any

[asujbl]

What do Dak and Zeke sell for currently? Are all Zeke's bought up or were they redemptions or something. I couldn't find any

Dak looks like he's going around $1,000 (for a 9.5/10). Zeke is going around $350 but those are redemptions. Not sure what they'll go for once someone actually gets one in a 9.5/10 slab.

[sigmachi]

I'm a Titans fan so I've seen more of Andrew Luck than I ever want to but he's a dang good QB. I'm not sure that he will make it to that first tier superstar level, especially without a good OL or RB.

[usafshelland]

I don't think the Luck hype will die out until he has a backup that is legitimately capable of taking over the starting role. I personally believe that's why some guys like Dalton's cards have stayed low, he has a legit backup that could easily be the starter (A.J. McCarron).

[Skootown]

I don't think the Luck hype will die out until he has a backup that is legitimately capable of taking over the starting role. I personally believe that's why some guys like Dalton's cards have stayed low, he has a legit backup that could easily be the starter (A.J. McCarron).

Gonna be about a decade wait on that one.

[usafshelland]

Gonna be about a decade wait on that one.

I would disagree...I think it will be a lot sooner than you think. I know the Bengals made an investment in Andy Dalton, but he's only slated for $13M in 2018 (McCarron FA year). That's a very palatable salary for most NFL teams for a QB who will get you 9-10 wins a year. But hardly a convincing story to keep him if he can't get at least 1 playoff win. But who knows, I could also see the Broncos playing the waiting game for this year and then going after him hard in FA in 2018.

[asujbl]

I don't think the Luck hype will die out until he has a backup that is legitimately capable of taking over the starting role. I personally believe that's why some guys like Dalton's cards have stayed low, he has a legit backup that could easily be the starter (A.J. McCarron).

Luck is simply an outlier. It's not because of the backups.

Look at all the guys that are clear cut starters, with no chance to lose their jobs, that sell for a fraction of what Luck still goes for... Wilson, Stafford, Winston, Mariota, Tannehill, Cousins, etc... Hell even guys like Cam (raw copies around $125) and Carr (raw copies around $200) don't go anywhere near what Luck does as his raw Contenders still fetch $500

People don't want to crash and burn on the prices they paid for Luck. That's still driving hype. They want to hold until they realize he isn't the savior of Football. Not Indianapolis having a McCarron for a backup.

[ninjacookies]

Luck is simply an outlier. It's not because of the backups.

Look at all the guys that are clear cut starters, with no chance to lose their jobs, that sell for a fraction of what Luck still goes for... Wilson, Stafford, Winston, Mariota, Tannehill, Cousins, etc... Hell even guys like Cam (raw copies around $125) and Carr (raw copies around $200) don't go anywhere near what Luck does as his raw Contenders still fetch $500

People don't want to crash and burn on the prices they paid for Luck. That's still driving hype. They want to hold until they realize he isn't the savior of Football. Not Indianapolis having a McCarron for a backup.

Two words: draft pedigree.

It takes a loooong time for the 'once in a generational prospect' tag to leave someone. And it's usually when the next one arrives.

[asujbl]

Two words: draft pedigree.

It takes a loooong time for the 'once in a generational prospect' tag to leave someone. And it's usually when the next one arrives.

Very true.

It makes no logical sense you can get Cam, Carr, Winston, and Cousins for the price of Luck

[ninjacookies]

Very true.

It makes no logical sense you can get Cam, Carr, Winston, and Cousins for the price of Luck

It's the lingering hope (no matter how realistic) of collectors/prospectors hinging entirely on their draft intangibles.

For Luck, it's that he was the prototype qb. Ideal size, speed, arm strength, and football IQ.

But we all know, oftentimes what's written on paper does not always translate equally in application.

[RogerGodahell]

I do think he's a really good quarterback. His team is just pretty bad including the coaching staff and GM. Maybe more them then the team. A good coach really does make a big difference. I know stats are just stats and can easily be blown out of proportion but his numbers are really good. His first 3 years were exceptional stat wise. And last year too actually.

[ninjacookies]

I do think he's a really good quarterback. His team is just pretty bad including the coaching staff and GM. Maybe more them then the team. A good coach really does make a big difference. I know stats are just stats and can easily be blown out of proportion but his numbers are really good. His first 3 years were exceptional stat wise. And last year too actually.

He is a far cry from a bust.

Quite prolific numbers, but at the sacrifice of efficiency.

I think the most concerning thing are his complete mental lapses and throwing ints when there was absolutely nothing there. It leaves you scratching your head after his moments of brilliance.

[asujbl]

It's the lingering hope (no matter how realistic) of collectors/prospectors hinging entirely on their draft intangibles.

For Luck, it's that he was the prototype qb. Ideal size, speed, arm strength, and football IQ.

But we all know, oftentimes what's written on paper does not always translate equally in application.

Yep.

People have too much invested in the chosen one to bail now for $500

[ninjacookies]

Yep.

People have too much invested in the chosen one to bail now for $500

This too. Nobody wants to be the last one holding the hot potato.

[dfr52]

Matt Ryan 2015 vs. 2016 is a good example, I think. Matt Ryan is so thankful for Alex Mack.

Good point:)!

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Tonight.

[pudge27t]

Tonight.

:D
Beat me to it! :)!

[ReaderCollector]

I am curious. What happens to Luck card values? He had a great career, but does his retirement just tank his values completely or? Please let me know as this is all very interesting to me and I want to know what happens.

[Siberian13]

I am curious. What happens to Luck card values? He had a great career, but does his retirement just tank his values completely or? Please let me know as this is all very interesting to me and I want to know what happens.

Housing market bubble just popped and will never recover

[mmier118]

I am curious. What happens to Luck card values? He had a great career, but does his retirement just tank his values completely or? Please let me know as this is all very interesting to me and I want to know what happens.

I think it will take some time but I can’t see how his retirement does not just tank his values. They will always be higher than they should be, but with no rings, no career stats and no chance at HOF his values should drop to maybe the Michael Vick level.

[ReaderCollector]

Housing market bubble just popped and will never recover

Thank you for fast reply Siberian13. How much do his cards crash though? I mean, if he had one of his top cards be worth $20,000 2 days ago, what is it worth right now? $18,000? $10,000? $5,000?

I know Luck has no chance to make Hall of Fame now but he did still have a really good career, so I am wondering how much his cards crash.

[Siberian13]

Thank you for fast reply Siberian13. How much do his cards crash though? I mean, if he had one of his top cards be worth $20,000 2 days ago, what is it worth right now? $18,000? $10,000? $5,000?

I know Luck has no chance to make Hall of Fame now but he did still have a really good career, so I am wondering how much his cards crash.

Some crazy guy said 15-20% of that total but you would be insane to pay $3000-$4000 for the card.

[NeedChapmans]

Thank you for fast reply Siberian13. How much do his cards crash though? I mean, if he had one of his top cards be worth $20,000 2 days ago, what is it worth right now? $18,000? $10,000? $5,000?

I know Luck has no chance to make Hall of Fame now but he did still have a really good career, so I am wondering how much his cards crash.

He'll still have a little market but in my experience (and I sadly have too much of it), the value of cards doesn't drop a %. It drops to the floor.

I would imagine Contenders base autos to be selling for $50-$75 at this time next season. And then $30-$40 once the market is completely thawed out. Luck's very best card (NT RPA, 1/1 Contenders ... whatever) might clear $500 in the future but would have to come from someone willing to overpay.

[ninjacookies]

He'll still have a little market but in my experience (and I sadly have too much of it), the value of cards doesn't drop a %. It drops to the floor.

I would imagine Contenders base autos to be selling for $50-$75 at this time next season. And then $30-$40 once the market is completely thawed out. Luck's very best card (NT RPA, 1/1 Contenders ... whatever) might clear $500 in the future but would have to come from someone willing to overpay.


They are going to the floor. Jake Locker's stuff was selling for insane amounts his rookie season, now you can get some of his top key autos for under 5 bucks including shipping. Most don't even sell with a starting price of 99 cents.

Ultimately what hurts Luck the most is he didn't put together a comprehensive enough resume to be HOF worthy. So in 20 years he's just going to be remembered as just that 'hugely hyped qb that retired early.'

[NeedChapmans]

They are going to the floor. Jake Locker's stuff was selling for insane amounts his rookie season, now you can get some of his top key autos for under 5 bucks including shipping. Most don't even sell with a starting price of 99 cents.

Ultimately what hurts Luck the most is he didn't put together a comprehensive enough resume to be HOF worthy. So in 20 years he's just going to be remembered as just that 'hugely hyped qb that retired early.'

Absolutely. Numbers won't be there; accolades won't be there. He'll be discussed often but you'll never find him on any list that ESPN shows; and there won't be much of any value.

For ANYONE who has his cards, get out now. You can always buy back what you have at a fraction of the price but value today will be so many times greater than it will be in 12 months.

[Raiders777]

Luck future HOF

[ninjacookies]

For ANYONE who has his cards, get out now. You can always buy back what you have at a fraction of the price but value today will be so many times greater than it will be in 12 months.

This right here. Sell while he's still in the news and fresh in the minds of football fans.

Every day you hold will be more money you lose...and you will lose most everything.

[Cavaliercards]

They are going to the floor. Jake Locker's stuff was selling for insane amounts his rookie season, now you can get some of his top key autos for under 5 bucks including shipping. Most don't even sell with a starting price of 99 cents.

Ultimately what hurts Luck the most is he didn't put together a comprehensive enough resume to be HOF worthy. So in 20 years he's just going to be remembered as just that 'hugely hyped qb that retired early.'

Luck has about 20,000 more YDs and 140 more TDs than Locker.

Luck will be seen as good, but a cautious tale for collectors

[Cavaliercards]

This right here. Sell while he's still in the news and fresh in the minds of football fans.

Every day you hold will be more money you lose...and you will lose most everything.

Many will hold on hoping that he comes back. If he drops to floor in next 6 months, but comes back in 2 years they hope to see some value return.

[ninjacookies]

Many will hold on hoping that he comes back. If he drops to floor in next 6 months, but comes back in 2 years they hope to see some value return.

If Luck comes back to play I'll eat a Zion bobblehead live on breakerstv.


I'm not playing games.

[Siberian13]

If Luck comes back to play I'll eat a Zion bobblehead live on breakerstv.


I'm not playing games.

Quoted and saved. :)

[jdandns]

Hold.

He might be President some day.

[ninjacookies]

Quoted and saved. :)

Bring it.


At the very least I'll have future GOAT plastic in my intestines.

[Cavaliercards]

Bring it.


At the very least I'll have future GOAT plastic in my intestines.

You eating Morant instead of Zion?

[Siberian13]

Bring it.


At the very least I'll have future GOAT plastic in my intestines.

The bobble head you eat has to be Zion’s weight at the time Luck returns. :)!

[Siberian13]

Hold.

He might be President some day.

Of a book club maybe.

[majestik101]

I am curious. What happens to Luck card values? He had a great career, but does his retirement just tank his values completely or? Please let me know as this is all very interesting to me and I want to know what happens.

Trash.

Will hold about the same value as Joe Theismann

[ReaderCollector]

He'll still have a little market but in my experience (and I sadly have too much of it), the value of cards doesn't drop a %. It drops to the floor.

I would imagine Contenders base autos to be selling for $50-$75 at this time next season. And then $30-$40 once the market is completely thawed out. Luck's very best card (NT RPA, 1/1 Contenders ... whatever) might clear $500 in the future but would have to come from someone willing to overpay.

Oh my goodness, that really is the floor, wow, I had no idea they would crash that much. I now feel bad for people because it sounds like there are probably people who just lost tens of thousands in the matter of one day. That is crazy!

[ReaderCollector]

Luck future HOF

I LOVE Luck but he has a 0.0% chance at making the Hall of Fame I think.

[Cavaliercards]

Here's a good question?

More value 2 years after retiring, Cutler or Luck?

Cutler Contenders BGS 9.5 ended at $35
NT Auto /15 $34