Is my observation correct that all cards will eventually drop in value?

[Zeusophobia]

So I've been collecting for 7 years. Not as long as most of you, but I came to a conclusion that pretty much made me want to quit collecting.

It seems for even your average all-star (By average all-star I mean not LeBron James or MJ), they eventually get old and start playing poorly and then their cards value drops significantly.

Granted there are a few players that managed to stay relevant when they hit old age, but look at Derrick Rose, his cards are worth peanuts and he's been the MVP. It's because people only care about how the players are doing RIGHT NOW.

So if I were to buy a Westbrook RPA, and hold on to it forever, at some point he's going to slow down tremendously and the card will be worth 1/3 of what I paid for it.

So I'm not saying this is 100% accurate. These are just my observations, and I was really hoping someone would tell me I was wrong.

I like ripping packs, and I like keeping the cards. I'm not one to liquidate my cards when a player goes up, I'm a collector. It's just nice to know what I own has value, that's a big thing for me. I just HATE knowing that Giannis RPA is eventually going to be worth a whole ton less than it's worth right now.

[Digerati]

If they are not Michael Jordan or LeBron James then yes, they will drop in 99.9% of cases. The cards that might not drop are super expensive to begin with anyways. I'll never get people that treat this Hobby like its a smart thing to invest in. It's not.

[kukocitb]

I collect for enjoyment. There are a ton of cards from the 90s of no name players that are going up. Granted the 90s were 17+ years ago. Supply and demand. Really don't know what Panini will be worth in the future. Since my player played in pre panini days (except for stickers) I am trying to focus on that. As an investment cardboard is not the way to go.

[Scottish Punk]

If they are not Michael Jordan or LeBron James then yes, they will drop in 99.9% of cases. The cards that might not drop are super expensive to begin with anyways. I'll never get people that treat this Hobby like its a smart thing to invest in. It's not.

Ding, Ding. Cards should never be an "investment". The only way that it works is if you have the top half percentile cards. Graded Lebron/Jordan/vintage popular HOFers rcs. Those are the only that keep or move up in value. Even then, the market to sell high-end cards is more niche than trading card market itself. It will only take a few of the high end collectors to sell our or quit to stall the market. Invest in Stocks, Bonds, and real estate. Buy collectibles to enjoy and have fun.

[RookieTradingCa]

If you're a collector, all you need to do is take what you've learned and use it to your advantage.

Here's what I'm saying....Yes, most cards drop in price from their RC year. Rose is a bad example because he went from being a top 3 player to almost worthless because of injury.

If you have a favorite player or team the key is not to buy them when they're hot because they'll always cool off.

Don't laugh...I'm a NY Giants fan. Now is the perfect time to buy Eli Manning autographs because we suck really hard. But he's still my favorite player. Imagine if I bought them after they beat the Patriots? I would've paid triple for the same card.

On the flip side now may the worst time to buy Todd Gurley because he's going off. The only exception would be is if he continued this trend....don't we all love "potential"?

I've been doing this for 24 years. I use both short term and long term views depending on whether I'm buying to keep or resell.

I hope that helps.

[GeechQuest]

The Giannis RPA may never be worth less than it is right now.

While only a handful of certain players can maintain high values throughout ALL of their cards, there are plenty of players who can have 1 or 2 cards maintain high values.

This is mostly due to sets being valued by the collecting base as a whole, as opposed to the individual players. Set chasers drive values of cards, as a whole, higher than any player drives cards (sans Jordan and Lebron).

Look at the guy who found the Eddie Jones Green PMG. I have no doubt in my mind that card will sell for $600+ without any problem.

I also have faith the no SINGLE Eddie Jones card would eclipse $200.

So in essence the value is driven from the set, not the player.

Why does a Kobe Select Courtside Gold go for roughly DOUBLE it's Prizm Gold counterpart? The set.

Giannis could bomb out of the league, but if for WHATEVER reason the NT RPA becomes the hot commodity for collectors 20-30 down the road (similar to what Prizm/Chrome Refractors have become), the card could actually go UP in value.

BTW it's near impossible to guess what people will value 20-30 years from now, and generally the best guesses are wrong.

[smalltown]

Do most cards drop from their peak value? Yes.

Trick is not to buy anything near the peak value. In the Giannis example. There was almost 3 years in which you could buy many freak cards at low prices that they'll likely never touch again.

[chris_ac]

So I've been collecting for 7 years. Not as long as most of you, but I came to a conclusion that pretty much made me want to quit collecting.

It seems for even your average all-star (By average all-star I mean not LeBron James or MJ), they eventually get old and start playing poorly and then their cards value drops significantly.

Granted there are a few players that managed to stay relevant when they hit old age, but look at Derrick Rose, his cards are worth peanuts and he's been the MVP. It's because people only care about how the players are doing RIGHT NOW.

So if I were to buy a Westbrook RPA, and hold on to it forever, at some point he's going to slow down tremendously and the card will be worth 1/3 of what I paid for it.

So I'm not saying this is 100% accurate. These are just my observations, and I was really hoping someone would tell me I was wrong.

I like ripping packs, and I like keeping the cards. I'm not one to liquidate my cards when a player goes up, I'm a collector. It's just nice to know what I own has value, that's a big thing for me. I just HATE knowing that Giannis RPA is eventually going to be worth a whole ton less than it's worth right now.

I’m of the opinion that those 2 things are mutually exclusive. If holding value is a big concern, then you could be less of a collector than you think. I realize we pay good money for our cards, but when future value enters your mindset constantly, then you’re still a flipper, just maybe a long term one instead of a short term. Don’t think investment, think enhancement.

[Chain]

Your observation is correct OP. But there are ways to counter act it.

Let me preface my points by saying that I have been collecting cards for more than 20 years now (more than 2/3 of my life). Not the longest time among collectors here, but here are what I learned during those years:

(1) For almost all players, they experience peak card card values at their rookie year. This is generally the worst time to buy cards of any player. If you buy at the rookie hype period, the only scenario you will gain value long term is if you are very lucky and pick a player who will eventually go down as one of the top 20 all-time; your chances are less than 1%. Even if you do pick an all-timer, rookie year is still not the point when their prices are lowest.

(2) A few players experience a spike in price during the early parts of their careers when they get a major achievement; an MVP, championship, high profile record. This is also not a time to buy their cards. They may look like can't miss investments during this times, but 90% of them are really not (see T-Mac, GH33, Penny, DRose). Even if in the very small chance they turn out to be Jordan, LeBron, or Kobe, their peak years is still not the time to buy their cards.

(3) The best time to buy cards of a player is when an all-time great is at the twilight of their career and are only a shell of their former selves before they retire. Think Jordan during his Wizards days, or Kobe during his injured seasons.

(4) During the time when a great player is an afterthought and it's time to buy, focus on getting their best and most important cards. When player card demand increases, it is most pronounced in their most desirable cards.

(5) Key cards are difficult to find even when a great player is already an afterthought. To maximize your opportunity and your collecting experience as well, identify underrated cards of these players. These are usually aesthetically pleasing, and well-liked cards that are valued lower than their counterparts.

(6) Lastly, if you really want to get the most long term value from your spending, you need to stay away from sealed product. I understand and agree that they are enjoyable, but you are paying premium for the temporary thrill and there will be no reselling that.

Hopefully these insights help collectors here for the most part. If anyone thinks not, please chime in with your insights as well. :)!

[Harper]

I’m of the opinion that those 2 things are mutually exclusive. If holding value is a big concern, then you could be less of a collector than you think. I realize we pay good money for our cards, but when future value enters your mindset constantly, then you’re still a flipper, just maybe a long term one instead of a short term. Don’t think investment, think enhancement.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Even if I don’t ever plan to sell my cards eventually I die. I’d like the think if my family needed money they could sell my collection and it have some value. I know I will never “make” any money on my collection and figure buying a 20$ card is equivalent to the entertainment cost of going to a movie... that money is gone. I’ve never flipped a card. The only card I think I even sold was one I got in a lot that was never intended for the PC. But that doesn’t mean that i don’t care about value...

[dasiegel]

There is a lot of incorrect advice in this post. If you are on the forum long enough you have probably seen the collector/investor dichotomy and some people feel you can't buy cards for profit or somehow they are better if they are pure collectors etc. It's all just an opinion and usually with some emotion behind it.

Here is the reality. Cards are like any other commodity. Let's just use the example of clothing or jewelry. When a item comes out it may be new, fashionable, exciting, etc. It has demand, a big market and can go up in value. Like most styles, it's no longer as "in" years later as newer stuff comes out.

Those are like rookies and 2nd/3rd year players in sports. Unless they become timeless players like Lebron, Durant, Curry types, they will come back to Earth in value. You absolutely CAN invest in cards if you want to. Most cards would have to be bought early and sold at the right time or you could buy for example, a key Lebron James rookie card now and down the road, it will most certainly increase even if slightly in value as it becomes more scarce or condition sensitive.

[Harper]

Your observation is correct OP. But there are ways to counter act it.

Let me preface my points by saying that I have been collecting cards for more than 20 years now (more than 2/3 of my life). Not the longest time among collectors here, but here are what I learned during those years:

(1) For almost all players, they experience peak card card values at their rookie year. This is generally the worst time to buy cards of any player. If you buy at the rookie hype period, the only scenario you will gain value long term is if you are very lucky and pick a player who will eventually go down as one of the top 20 all-time; your chances are less than 1%. Even if you do pick an all-timer, rookie year is still not the point when their prices are lowest.

(2) A few players experience a spike in price during the early parts of their careers when they get a major achievement; an MVP, championship, high profile record. This is also not a time to buy their cards. They may look like can't miss investments during this times, but 90% of them are really not (see T-Mac, GH33, Penny, DRose). Even if in the very small chance they turn out to be Jordan, LeBron, or Kobe, their peak years is still not the time to buy their cards.

(3) The best time to buy cards of a player is when an all-time great is at the twilight of their career and are only a shell of their former selves before they retire. Think Jordan during his Wizards days, or Kobe during his injured seasons.

(4) During the time when a great player is an afterthought and it's time to buy, focus on getting their best and most important cards. When player card demand increases, it is most pronounced in their most desirable cards.

(5) Key cards are difficult to find even when a great player is already an afterthought. To maximize your opportunity and your collecting experience as well, identify underrated cards of these players. These are usually aesthetically pleasing, and well-liked cards that are valued lower than their counterparts.

(6) Lastly, if you really want to get the most long term value from your spending, you need to stay away from sealed product. I understand and agree that they are enjoyable, but you are paying premium for the temporary thrill and there will be no reselling that.

Hopefully these insights help collectors here for the most part. If anyone thinks not, please chime in with your insights as well. :)!

I agree with all this. The problem in a forum like this is that not everyone is motivated to be honest. A lot of snake oil salesmen will want you to blindly follow the hype train and buy when prices are at their peak bc that’s how they make profits. The rookie hype NEEDS to be a key deterrent from buying these cards. Wait at least into sophomore year. Unless a player wins finals mvp as a rookie, that price will drop. If someone tells you otherwise click their eBay site and look what they are selling :)

[AlabamaSlamma]

h3YVKTxTOgU

[6celtics33]

Your observation is correct OP. But there are ways to counter act it.

Let me preface my points by saying that I have been collecting cards for more than 20 years now (more than 2/3 of my life). Not the longest time among collectors here, but here are what I learned during those years:

(1) For almost all players, they experience peak card card values at their rookie year. This is generally the worst time to buy cards of any player. If you buy at the rookie hype period, the only scenario you will gain value long term is if you are very lucky and pick a player who will eventually go down as one of the top 20 all-time; your chances are less than 1%. Even if you do pick an all-timer, rookie year is still not the point when their prices are lowest.

(2) A few players experience a spike in price during the early parts of their careers when they get a major achievement; an MVP, championship, high profile record. This is also not a time to buy their cards. They may look like can't miss investments during this times, but 90% of them are really not (see T-Mac, GH33, Penny, DRose). Even if in the very small chance they turn out to be Jordan, LeBron, or Kobe, their peak years is still not the time to buy their cards.

(3) The best time to buy cards of a player is when an all-time great is at the twilight of their career and are only a shell of their former selves before they retire. Think Jordan during his Wizards days, or Kobe during his injured seasons.

(4) During the time when a great player is an afterthought and it's time to buy, focus on getting their best and most important cards. When player card demand increases, it is most pronounced in their most desirable cards.

(5) Key cards are difficult to find even when a great player is already an afterthought. To maximize your opportunity and your collecting experience as well, identify underrated cards of these players. These are usually aesthetically pleasing, and well-liked cards that are valued lower than their counterparts.

(6) Lastly, if you really want to get the most long term value from your spending, you need to stay away from sealed product. I understand and agree that they are enjoyable, but you are paying premium for the temporary thrill and there will be no reselling that.

Hopefully these insights help collectors here for the most part. If anyone thinks not, please chime in with your insights as well. :)!

#3 is a great point. Pujols in baseball is a great example of that right now. After they retire all that gets forgotten and the good ole days are remembered and the career numbers look great again, hall of fame, etc. Then you see the up arrows.

[CaptainUgly]

I agree with the OP. Please sell me all your Altuve cards before they go down.

[TWard]

Oh no, the sky is falling.

[TWard]

If anyone wants to sell me their Westbrook, KAT, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Altuve Cards for 1/3rd their current going rate, LMK! I’ll be more than happy to take them off your hands!

[rogermaris]

This is mostly due to sets being valued by the collecting base as a whole, as opposed to the individual players. Set chasers drive values of cards, as a whole, higher than any player drives cards (sans Jordan and Lebron).


THIS is the correct answer IMO.

All you have to do is look at how the vintage market has evolved over the last 100 years. The vintage baseball cards that have increased the most in value have at least one of two attributes:

A). They feature a generational player (Ruth, Mantle, etc). I do not mean HOFers, I mean truly one-of-a-kind players that defined the era in which they played.

B.) Cards of any player from premier sets that define a period in the hobby, particularly rare ones ('52 high numbers, tough t206 backs, etc.)

Based on these two metrics, if my goal were to collect cards that would hold their value, I would invest in players like Jordan, Kobe and Lebron. I would also invest in high-end, hobby-defining sets of ANY player. That includes things like early serial numbered cards (PMG, Star Rubies, etc), early jersey cards (pre-2000 UD jersey sets), 03-04 Exquisite, or early Prizms (I don't collect these, but my understanding is the inaugural set holds its value well, and it seems to have had a big influence on the hobby).

So far, nearly ALL my 90s serial numbered/jersey cards and all my vintage cards of Mantle, Ruth, etc. have increased in value since I initially purchased them (all within the last 15 years). Some as much as 1000%+. People who say cards can't be good investments don't understand how the card market works. People who say cards SHOULDN'T be treated as investments are smart people with good advice. I've always bought cards because I love them; the fact that they've held their value is incidental to me in the long run.

TL;DR: Go for players and sets that define their era. Rare is always better.

[chris_ac]

I disagree wholeheartedly. Even if I don’t ever plan to sell my cards eventually I die. I’d like the think if my family needed money they could sell my collection and it have some value. I know I will never “make” any money on my collection and figure buying a 20$ card is equivalent to the entertainment cost of going to a movie... that money is gone. I’ve never flipped a card. The only card I think I even sold was one I got in a lot that was never intended for the PC. But that doesn’t mean that i don’t care about value...

Even if I had a family, I still wouldn’t worry or overthink future value of my collection. They’re trading cards to put a general term on them. Nothing more, and nothing designed to be used for future exchange of any kind. It’s strictly a privilege we can sell our cards for anything. If you worry about value, you start threads constantly in forum asking who’s hot and who’s going to win what in awards and titles :coffee:


There is a lot of incorrect advice in this post. If you are on the forum long enough you have probably seen the collector/investor dichotomy and some people feel you can't buy cards for profit or somehow they are better if they are pure collectors etc. It's all just an opinion and usually with some emotion behind it.

Here is the reality. Cards are like any other commodity. Let's just use the example of clothing or jewelry. When a item comes out it may be new, fashionable, exciting, etc. It has demand, a big market and can go up in value. Like most styles, it's no longer as "in" years later as newer stuff comes out.

Those are like rookies and 2nd/3rd year players in sports. Unless they become timeless players like Lebron, Durant, Curry types, they will come back to Earth in value. You absolutely CAN invest in cards if you want to. Most cards would have to be bought early and sold at the right time or you could buy for example, a key Lebron James rookie card now and down the road, it will most certainly increase even if slightly in value as it becomes more scarce or condition sensitive.

Again, cards shouldn’t be treated as commodities. You live in a different world where clothing and jewelry is a commodity. You buy it and you wear it. It can be disposable if necessary, nothing more. If you’re clothing is going up in value after you bought it, you don’t belong in this hobby. Trendy clothing or jewelry that’s expensive when you buy it and it maintains it’s value is for the rich.

We should keep this to trading cards, not commodities. I have no problems whatsoever if your cards can appreciate, but there is zero expectations and the card companies express this from the get go. It’s just another expensive hobby and that’s where it ends.

[ljandkg]

THIS is the correct answer IMO.

All you have to do is look at how the vintage market has evolved over the last 100 years. The vintage baseball cards that have increased the most in value have at least one of two attributes:

A). They feature a generational player (Ruth, Mantle, etc). I do not mean HOFers, I mean truly one-of-a-kind players that defined the era in which they played.

B.) Cards of any player from premier sets that define a period in the hobby, particularly rare ones ('52 high numbers, tough t206 backs, etc.)

Based on these two metrics, if my goal were to collect cards that would hold their value, I would invest in players like Jordan, Kobe and Lebron. I would also invest in high-end, hobby-defining sets of ANY player. That includes things like early serial numbered cards (PMG, Star Rubies, etc), early jersey cards (pre-2000 UD jersey sets), or early Prizms (I don't collect these, but my understanding is the inaugural set holds its value well).

So far, nearly ALL my 90s serial numbered/jersey cards and all my vintage cards of Mantle, Ruth, etc. have increased in value since I initially purchased them (all within the last 15 years). Some as much as 1000%+. People who say cards can't be a stable investment don't understand how the card market works. People who say cards SHOULDN'T be treated as investments are smart people with good advice. I've always bought cards because I love them; the fact that they've held their value is incidental to me in the long run.

TL;DR: Go for players and sets that define their era. Rare is always better.

I'm going to print this off and frame it. If you're looking for investment in cards, this post is the bible.

[dasiegel]

THIS is the correct answer IMO.

All you have to do is look at how the vintage market has evolved over the last 100 years. The vintage baseball cards that have increased the most in value have at least one of two attributes:

A). They feature a generational player (Ruth, Mantle, etc). I do not mean HOFers, I mean truly one-of-a-kind players that defined the era in which they played.

B.) Cards of any player from premier sets that define a period in the hobby, particularly rare ones ('52 high numbers, tough t206 backs, etc.)

Based on these two metrics, if my goal were to collect cards that would hold their value, I would invest in players like Jordan, Kobe and Lebron. I would also invest in high-end, hobby-defining sets of ANY player. That includes things like early serial numbered cards (PMG, Star Rubies, etc), early jersey cards (pre-2000 UD jersey sets), or early Prizms (I don't collect these, but my understanding is the inaugural set holds its value well).

So far, nearly ALL my 90s serial numbered/jersey cards and all my vintage cards of Mantle, Ruth, etc. have increased in value since I initially purchased them (all within the last 15 years). Some as much as 1000%+. People who say cards can't be a stable investment don't understand how the card market works. People who say cards SHOULDN'T be treated as investments are smart people with good advice. I've always bought cards because I love them; the fact that they've held their value is incidental to me in the long run.

TL;DR: Go for players and sets that define their era. Rare is always better.

This post was perfect until this one line. So since the 90s your cards have increased in value. And for YOU, it was incidental. However what if other people enjoyed cards and were able to research and predict some of these increases and made money of the cards. Maybe they were actually smart people too with just different ideas of what should be done with pieces of cardboard. Even when many of my friends were 11-12 years old trading cards in homeroom, we all still wanted the best cards both of our favorite players and people we thought had good value (remember Beckett arrows, lol).

My real issue with this topic each time it comes up is one person (not saying you) saying what should and shouldn't be done because that is the way THEY do it or feel it should be done.


Again, cards shouldn’t be treated as commodities. You live in a different world where clothing and jewelry is a commodity. You buy it and you wear it. It can be disposable if necessary, nothing more. If you’re clothing is going up in value after you bought it, you don’t belong in this hobby. Trendy clothing or jewelry that’s expensive when you buy it and it maintains it’s value is for the rich.

We should keep this to trading cards, not commodities. I have no problems whatsoever if your cards can appreciate, but there is zero expectations and the card companies express this from the get go. It’s just another expensive hobby and that’s where it ends.

Does that mean anyone rich on this forum can't be in the hobby. We have athletes, celebrities etc even here on the forum and ebay who spend hours opening wax, trading, building super collections and yes, flipping cards. Does that mean they aren't part of the hobby? They are part of the hobby. They always have been in the hobby. Even when people were flipping cards and putting them in bike spokes there were always rich kids who had more and better cards than anyone else. I hate box breaking but it's here to stay. Everyone needs to accept there are different ways to do this hobby.

[rogermaris]

This post was perfect until this one line. So since the 90s your cards have increased in value. And for YOU, it was incidental. However what if other people enjoyed cards and were able to research and predict some of these increases and made money of the cards. Maybe they were actually smart people too with just different ideas of what should be done with pieces of cardboard. Even when many of my friends were 11-12 years old trading cards in homeroom, we all still wanted the best cards both of our favorite players and people we thought had good value (remember Beckett arrows, lol).

My real issue with this topic each time it comes up is one person (not saying you) saying what should and shouldn't be done because that is the way THEY do it or feel it should be done.

Does that mean anyone rich on this forum can't be in the hobby. We have athletes, celebrities etc even here on the forum and ebay who spend hours opening wax, trading, building super collections and yes, flipping cards. Does that mean they aren't part of the hobby? They are part of the hobby. They always have been in the hobby. Even when people were flipping cards and putting them in bike spokes there were always rich kids who had more and better cards than anyone else. I hate box breaking but it's here to stay. Everyone needs to accept there are different ways to do this hobby.

Sorry if it sounded like I was excluding people who view cards as investments. I take no issue with people who choose to approach it that way, even if they're just in it for the quick flip -- and I consider them as much a part of the hobby as anyone else. I don't think there's any right or wrong way to approach the hobby. When I said people shouldn't view their cards as investments, I meant that more as general advice rather than a statement of objective fact.

Let me make an analogy with sports betting. A lot of people (such as myself) bet for fun in order to make games more interesting. A lot of people also bet in order to actually make money -- some even do it for a living.

That being said, I think a lot of people (including people who gamble for a living) would advise most people who are considering placing a bet on a sports game to do so for fun and not to take it too seriously. There are several reasons for this. First, most people will fail to make money. Secondly, even for people who do make money, what starts out as a fun hobby can quickly turn into something stressful and soul-sucking. I personally have found that when I start to stress about the value of my collection, I stop enjoying it, which defeats the purpose of having a collection in the first place (for me anyway, but I'm sure I'm not the only one who has experienced this...). It's also true that most people who buy cards will not make a return on their initial investment.

So again, no disrespect meant to investors or flippers -- I consider you a part of the hobby as much as anyone else!

[dasiegel]

Sorry if it sounded like I was excluding people who view cards as investments. I take no issue with people who choose to approach it that way, even if they're just in it for the quick flip -- and I consider them as much a part of the hobby as anyone else. I don't think there's any right or wrong way to approach the hobby. When I said people shouldn't view their cards as investments, I meant that more as general advice rather than a statement of objective fact.

Let me make an analogy with sports betting. A lot of people (such as myself) bet for fun in order to make games more interesting. A lot of people also bet in order to actually make money -- some even do it for a living.

That being said, I think a lot of people (including people who gamble for a living) would advise most people who are considering placing a bet on a sports game to do so for fun and not to take it too seriously. There are several reasons for this. First, most people will fail to make money. Secondly, even for people who do make money, what starts out as a fun hobby can quickly turn into something stressful and soul-sucking. I personally have found that when I start to stress about the value of my collection, I stop enjoying it, which defeats the purpose of having a collection in the first place (for me anyway, but I'm sure I'm not the only one who has experienced this...). It's also true that most people who buy cards will not make a return on their initial investment.

So again, no disrespect meant to investors or flippers -- I consider you a part of the hobby as much as anyone else!


Thanks for your post but I didn't get offended. What I tried to do was stick up for those who did. Some people genuinely look down at anyone who ever makes a financial gain from the hobby unless it's purely incidental. To me that is divisive and kinda childish. I have a PC, I have done plenty of LCS wax case/box busting and I regularly flip singles. Why wouldn't I do the latter? It's fun! You make money, meet people make connections and can use that money to out back into the hobby or use in my personal life. I don't think I am better for my PC than I am from flipping, to me it's all fun.

I agree with you, most people can't make money in the hobby. And if they are maybe at that point some turn it purely into a business and the fun is left behind. But I do believe many of us on here are knowledgeable enough about cards to do both. The wealth of knowledge on here is really nuts. We know about ways to get deals on wax, deals on grading, and all kinds of tips on players and teams.

[frisbeesteve]

I'm not usually the best at being concise, but I'll try my best here:

* If you're buying wax, you're paying a premium for a first-hand experience/thrill, and a SHOT at something big. Think of it like playing a slot machine in a casino. You might win, but you're likely to lose. At least losing with wax still will leave you with some common cards to look at.

* If you're buying singles of an active player, then you're going to be susceptible to any future increases or decreases in the market's perception of them. This includes not only on-court accomplishments (or lack thereof in relation to what was generally expected or projected), but also behavior off the court. Are they a good father or a wife beater? Do they appear to care about society and seem happy to give back some when they can, or are they more aloof and standoffish? These things will factor in, and may not be able to be predicted.

*If you're buying singles of a retired player, you have a much better idea of what you might be able to expect in the future from a value perspective (barring some kind of unforeseen personal meltdown from the player in question, etc.). This means, expectations should be for much less up or down movement than for an active player, due to much fewer variables.

I think that bullet #3 above is why there always has been and always will be a market for "vintage". There are plenty of people that not only enjoy previous generations' players and their eras (aka nostalgia), but also are not interested in the gamble that their cards might skyrocket... OR plummet (aka prospecting). The 90's are basically becoming the new vintage, albeit different than all previous vintage eras thanks to the explosion in cardboard popularity and with it - serial numbered parallels, autographs and game used memorabilia. Almost everyone that touched the 90's is retired now, with only future HOFers like Dirk and Vinsanity still around. Obviously there are no guarantees for vintage either, but cardboard history as well as the human propensity for collecting seem to indicate that there will always be a marketplace for cardboard.

[AlabamaSlamma]

Even if I had a family, I still wouldn’t worry or overthink future value of my collection. They’re trading cards to put a general term on them. Nothing more, and nothing designed to be used for future exchange of any kind. It’s strictly a privilege we can sell our cards for anything. If you worry about value, you start threads constantly in forum asking who’s hot and who’s going to win what in awards and titles :coffee:

Again, cards shouldn’t be treated as commodities. You live in a different world where clothing and jewelry is a commodity. You buy it and you wear it. It can be disposable if necessary, nothing more. If you’re clothing is going up in value after you bought it, you don’t belong in this hobby. Trendy clothing or jewelry that’s expensive when you buy it and it maintains it’s value is for the rich.

We should keep this to trading cards, not commodities. I have no problems whatsoever if your cards can appreciate, but there is zero expectations and the card companies express this from the get go. It’s just another expensive hobby and that’s where it ends.

I am wholly confused by/disagree with every sentence of this post, save for the bold (which still isn’t my favorite).

[chris_ac]

I am wholly confused by/disagree with every sentence of this post, save for the bold (which still isn’t my favorite).

I’m not going to argue about it. You can not see it from my point of view. Another thing about future value of cards and the ideology of flipping is the intent to profit. Do we need people who sell their cards immediately? Yes. Do we need people who get greedy on resell? Preferably not, but there’s no laws.

As for the simple discussion of will cards be worth less in the future and is that a problem, if you’re a collector I hope not.

To disagree wholeheartedly, do you carry a pretense when buying cards for their future value being higher than purchase? It’s great if they are, but let’s not go oh bummer if they’re not.

My opinion is biased because I’m dying already and the last thing I’ve ever thought when buying cards in 24 years is are they going to be worth less. This hobby is my solace.

[rogermaris]

Some people genuinely look down at anyone who ever makes a financial gain from the hobby unless it's purely incidental. To me that is divisive and kinda childish. I have a PC, I have done plenty of LCS wax case/box busting and I regularly flip singles. Why wouldn't I do the latter? It's fun! You make money, meet people make connections and can use that money to out back into the hobby or use in my personal life. I don't think I am better for my PC than I am from flipping, to me it's all fun.

Couldn't agree more. I think it's pretty disingenuous to look down on people who seek to make a financial gain from the hobby. After all, cards having value is the only reason modern card companies exist. And I'm not going to lie, I get a kick out of selling a card for a profit as much as anyone, and I think profiting off your cards can be a fun and exciting element of the hobby. For some people it can be the main reason for collecting and that's fine. I would just caution against making that the main reason for collecting until you're sure it's what you want and what you enjoy. In your case, it seems like you have your priorities sorted and you know what you want!

[SPauthentic84]

Some people genuinely look down at anyone who ever makes a financial gain from the hobby unless it's purely incidental. To me that is divisive and kinda childish. I have a PC, I have done plenty of LCS wax case/box busting and I regularly flip singles. Why wouldn't I do the latter? It's fun! You make money, meet people make connections and can use that money to out back into the hobby or use in my personal life. I don't think I am better for my PC than I am from flipping, to me it's all fun.


I completely agree.

I like when others get on their high horse about what is "ethical" in a hobby.

...I cant imagine how boring this hobby would be without flippers and consigners.

[COMCMax]

I collect and flip. If something I collect turns into a flip then great. More money to collect with? If I can flip/prospect something I don't even collect than that's even better. Flipping is part of my/the hobby.

[Chain]

Since we are in the topic of investing in cards. I wanted to add to my last point about sealed product.


(6) Lastly, if you really want to get the most long term value from your spending, you need to stay away from sealed product. I understand and agree that they are enjoyable, but you are paying premium for the temporary thrill and there will be no reselling that.


I meant this point to refer to busting boxes and cases, as I know most got right away.

However, the reverse is true for keeping product sealed. Keeping sealed product for the most part is one of the easiest (or most difficult when controlling the itch to bust) and safest investments you can make in this hobby. As long as you don't make the most obvious mistakes, like buying at inflated prices or buying mass produced product with no real chase cards, you should make money doing this in short, mid, and long term. The only limiting factors are your storage space and self control.

[rogermaris]

However, the reverse is true for keeping product sealed. Keeping sealed product for the most part is one of the easiest (or most difficult when controlling the itch to bust) and safest investments you can make in this hobby. As long as you don't make the most obvious mistakes, like buying at inflated prices or buying mass produced product with no real chase cards, you should make money doing this in short, mid, and long term. The only limiting factors are your storage space and self control.

Good caveat -- totally true!

[darscards35kd]

If you believe this then you are being pretty narrow minded. If in 20 years you are still holding players like devin booker, Ben Simmons, jaylen Brown, and Brandon Ingram (this assuming they all become good but not GREAT players) then yes it will be a bad investment. But you will definitely make money off them in the nearer term! Look at even guys like Jeremy lin, who people made killings off of. Any card can be viewed as an investment as long as you are realistic about your opportunity window and expectations.

[JWBlue]

One risk in not buying at a high point of a player is that some of the most desirable cards never see the light of day after their high point and are locked up in personal collections.

[jjohnson814]

This is a great thread with awesome advice from everyone. Thanks for sharing.

I want to add the perspective of someone who just recently got into collecting and share what I've learned (10 months or so)

1. You can absolutely make money investing in cards. As someone mentioned in a recent post you can't think about how much card X will be worth when it's all said and done. Instead figure out when to sell to make the money you desire from it. I never get upset when I make money from a flip and the card's value goes up after I flip. I saw the card value rise, I thought it could go down or stabilize and I made money. Period. I was able to take that profit and immediately do something else instead of sitting on something that COULD go up more.

2. For the most part enjoyment of the hobby is tied to the enjoyment you get out of the cards themselves. Flipping can be a product of that. I.E. I flipped this card so I could afford this other card that I really wanted for my PC. Now my collection is better because I flipped this other card. Winning.

3. You will make mistakes. Lots of them. I've bought cards for 1k thinking it's easy money a month from now when it grades a PSA 10. It grades a PSA 8 and that player got bounced from the playoffs early and I have to either take a $300 loss now or hold for another year and then maybe make my money back. I usually opt to cut my losses and try again. As you collect more the mistakes will reduce.

4. A bunch of other people have mentioned this but invest in the studs. The odds of most of these guys maintaining are low. Jordan and LeBron cards go up. Everyone else it's tough to say.

5. The rarer, the minter, the better. People want PMG because they're freaking impossible to find and when you do they're whiter than a winter in Buffalo on the edges.

6. Do what makes you happy. If the rush of making money off flips makes you happy do that. If you love chasing every card from you PC player and you don't care to do homework to invest. Do that. There's no wrong way to collect IMO. If you're worried about how others collect it's only adding to your stress. Btw I was totally that way when I started. I see the light now.

[rookies]

One risk in not buying at a high point of a player is that some of the most desirable cards never see the light of day after their high point and are locked up in personal collections.


THIS!!!!!!!
If you buy super high end rookies those cards are gone forever. I can promise you no number you throw at some people will be enough. Sometimes you must overpay at peak.

Counter to this thread is

Some of the players people on this forum try to under hype so they can buy many of the players top cards for cheap knowing in the future that player might be a star. Since I followed this very closely with KAT I can tell you when he was selling right out of the gates at poor patch 2000-2700 for great patch. So many people on this forum said wait for him to come down in price hes so high right now he will never maintain. Those same people bought KAT cards and now doubled $. So sometimes you just got to buy the card and be happy with it if you’re a collector or flipper no price is ever set in stone real. Finding what’s real and not is the tough part KAT never dipped below those numbers to this day. Many other examples of this. Lebron pre ring #1 people were going crazy over that card and calling it overpriced yet had 3-4 hiding. Manipulation works BOTH SIDES.

[tjforce]

THIS is the correct answer IMO.

All you have to do is look at how the vintage market has evolved over the last 100 years. The vintage baseball cards that have increased the most in value have at least one of two attributes:

A). They feature a generational player (Ruth, Mantle, etc). I do not mean HOFers, I mean truly one-of-a-kind players that defined the era in which they played.

B.) Cards of any player from premier sets that define a period in the hobby, particularly rare ones ('52 high numbers, tough t206 backs, etc.)

Based on these two metrics, if my goal were to collect cards that would hold their value, I would invest in players like Jordan, Kobe and Lebron. I would also invest in high-end, hobby-defining sets of ANY player. That includes things like early serial numbered cards (PMG, Star Rubies, etc), early jersey cards (pre-2000 UD jersey sets), 03-04 Exquisite, or early Prizms (I don't collect these, but my understanding is the inaugural set holds its value well, and it seems to have had a big influence on the hobby).

So far, nearly ALL my 90s serial numbered/jersey cards and all my vintage cards of Mantle, Ruth, etc. have increased in value since I initially purchased them (all within the last 15 years). Some as much as 1000%+. People who say cards can't be good investments don't understand how the card market works. People who say cards SHOULDN'T be treated as investments are smart people with good advice. I've always bought cards because I love them; the fact that they've held their value is incidental to me in the long run.

TL;DR: Go for players and sets that define their era. Rare is always better.

A lot of good points here, and you may be right, but one thing about them is that each thing you listed is already sky high. These are the things that are super popular now and everyone sees as an investment. That creates risk.

The card market is hot right now, so the must have cards are reaping the benefits. If something happens on a macro scale and money starts leaking out of the market, these hot cards have the furthest to fall. The good news is that they would probably be the first to bounce back.

IMO the stuff you mentioned is a great investment (as far as cards go) as long as the market sustains its strong following. But there are many more opportunities out there that don't include this stuff, and that's in the cards/sets that aren't quite appreciated yet.

Right now there is a player who is young and not yet an all star that will be the next Steph Curry/Russell Westbrook. There's a set that not many people are collecting that 20 years from now will be looked at like the next PMG

The hard part is just finding these cards.

[GeechQuest]

A lot of good points here, and you may be right, but one thing about them is that each thing you listed is already sky high. These are the things that are super popular now and everyone sees as an investment. That creates risk.

The card market is hot right now, so the must have cards are reaping the benefits. If something happens on a macro scale and money starts leaking out of the market, these hot cards have the furthest to fall. The good news is that they would probably be the first to bounce back.

IMO the stuff you mentioned is a great investment (as far as cards go) as long as the market sustains its strong following. But there are many more opportunities out there that don't include this stuff, and that's in the cards/sets that aren't quite appreciated yet.

Right now there is a player who is young and not yet an all star that will be the next Steph Curry/Russell Westbrook. There's a set that not many people are collecting that 20 years from now will be looked at like the next PMG

The hard part is just finding these cards.

Finding the perfect set is how you would make money from a long term hold, because most sets aren't thought of as great when they first come out.

It's always possible to find players to flip. Every season there is a new crop of rookies that, at least for the past few seasons, seem to bump in price ever so slightly come summer time when people start to realize they may be headed for bigger things.

If you're buying a player, here's what I've learned:

-Accumulate base cards EARLY when the market is flooded. This can be seen with Prizm base cards. Initially these cards are available in mass quantity, fairly cheap. Think of all the top names that could be scooped up relatively cheap in quantity. Prizm base is great, because the majority of the cards grade out nicely. If you would have picked up nearly ANY of the top rookies base card from the past 2 seasons, graded, and sold off in the summer, you could have made double/triple your investment on almost any player.

-DO NOT BUY "off" brands. Stick to the basics. NT and Prizm are where it's at if you're going to be spending. Next Day Autos for base autos. Don't get wild and think that a low numbered Totally Certified Auto of a RC is going to be something other people want. People who spend big in this hobby have EXTREMELY narrowed focus. They want the best of the best and your Rookie Roll Call auto /10 is just filler.

-If spending more than $100 on a card that isn't rare (Silver Prizms or NT RPAs), do not buy in the first wave. Give it about a month. NT RPAs especially. These cards notoriously dip after the first month and then slowly begin to rise again thereafter. The exception would be a GREAT patch on an NT RPA, those are hard to come by and make the RPA more rare. Silver Prizms follow the same path. Initial wave prices, then dip, then rise back up again. If you're thinking along the lines of "I'll give it a couple of months and then I'll pick up cheap", it's likely not going to happen for the top names.


If you are looking for the next hot set, you won't find it on this board. It literally would have to be something NOBODY is talking about currently. When Revolution first came out many people scoffed at the product and parallels and didn't really recognize how the set worked. I picked up Galactics in the first week or two for $50 and less. The second people started raving "Galactic is the next PMG" the ship had sailed. Try to find something innovative that hasn't caught on, but has always been a hobby mainstay. The Galactic was easy because for the past 25 years people have been enamored with rare base parallels.

Think along the lines of "What has always been a staple of the hobby but nobody really cares about currently?". It's next to impossible to predict, but you can find trends and try to have better future select if you go down the path of set prospecting.

[RYBOWSKI97]

Lebron, mj, mantle, ruth, tom brady, and graded vintage will never lose value. I

[brettmik59]

Technically all assets would fall in value to 0 once the sun burns out in 5 billion years. But maybe someone will maintain our ancient collections on another planet by then?

[mindcycle]

Technically all assets would fall in value to 0 once the sun burns out in 5 billion years. But maybe someone will maintain our ancient collections on another planet by then?


I like this answer. [emoji1]

[NeilCO]

Technically all assets would fall in value to 0 once the sun burns out in 5 billion years. But maybe someone will maintain our ancient collections on another planet by then?

Dawg, the supervolcano under Yellowstone is going to take us out by 2020. I will have my cards in my pockets at all times until that happens so I know that after the eruption my ashes will meld with those of my cards and we will eternally be one.

[onenonly0]

Your observation is correct OP. But there are ways to counter act it.

Let me preface my points by saying that I have been collecting cards for more than 20 years now (more than 2/3 of my life). Not the longest time among collectors here, but here are what I learned during those years:

(1) For almost all players, they experience peak card card values at their rookie year. This is generally the worst time to buy cards of any player. If you buy at the rookie hype period, the only scenario you will gain value long term is if you are very lucky and pick a player who will eventually go down as one of the top 20 all-time; your chances are less than 1%. Even if you do pick an all-timer, rookie year is still not the point when their prices are lowest.

(2) A few players experience a spike in price during the early parts of their careers when they get a major achievement; an MVP, championship, high profile record. This is also not a time to buy their cards. They may look like can't miss investments during this times, but 90% of them are really not (see T-Mac, GH33, Penny, DRose). Even if in the very small chance they turn out to be Jordan, LeBron, or Kobe, their peak years is still not the time to buy their cards.

(3) The best time to buy cards of a player is when an all-time great is at the twilight of their career and are only a shell of their former selves before they retire. Think Jordan during his Wizards days, or Kobe during his injured seasons.

(4) During the time when a great player is an afterthought and it's time to buy, focus on getting their best and most important cards. When player card demand increases, it is most pronounced in their most desirable cards.

(5) Key cards are difficult to find even when a great player is already an afterthought. To maximize your opportunity and your collecting experience as well, identify underrated cards of these players. These are usually aesthetically pleasing, and well-liked cards that are valued lower than their counterparts.

(6) Lastly, if you really want to get the most long term value from your spending, you need to stay away from sealed product. I understand and agree that they are enjoyable, but you are paying premium for the temporary thrill and there will be no reselling that.

Hopefully these insights help collectors here for the most part. If anyone thinks not, please chime in with your insights as well. :)!

Damn. Card Collecting 101 right there!!! I totally agree with you on everything you said. Thanks for the lecture. ;)

[Chain]

Damn. Card Collecting 101 right there!!! I totally agree with you on everything you said. Thanks for the lecture. ;)

Thanks man. :)! I'm glad you liked it.

[rogermaris]

A lot of good points here, and you may be right, but one thing about them is that each thing you listed is already sky high. These are the things that are super popular now and everyone sees as an investment. That creates risk.

The card market is hot right now, so the must have cards are reaping the benefits. If something happens on a macro scale and money starts leaking out of the market, these hot cards have the furthest to fall. The good news is that they would probably be the first to bounce back.

Great points. And yes, a lot of my analysis benefits from hindsight. That being said, those sets were already the most expensive sets when I started "investing" in them. At the time, I was sure they weren't going any higher. And that was over ten years ago.

In regards to your second point, I would actually consider those "hot cards" more stable than non-blue chip cards in the event the market turns south. I remember when the recession hit, a lot of vintage baseball cards took a hit too. The only cards that didn't really go down in value were blue chip cards (mantle, ruth, gehrig, etc.). It seemed to me like mid-range HOFers and common cards from less popular sets took the biggest hit. That being said, the hobby as a whole weathered the storm pretty well, so I'm not sure if that qualifies as the type of "macro scale" event you were referring to. Also, this is all just based on my recollection of ebay prices so take it with a grain of salt. Also, I majored in philosophy, so take any market advice I give with an even bigger grain of salt.


5. The rarer, the minter, the better. People want PMG because they're freaking impossible to find and when you do they're whiter than a winter in Buffalo on the edges.


I would just add that the reason people want PMG isn't just because they're rare -- there are plenty of rarer sets that don't fetch 1/100 of what PMGs do. The reason PMGs are so expensive is because it was an incredibly influential set, and amongst the other influential sets of the late 90s, it's higher-end with lots of visual appeal.

[rogermaris]

One other open question to ask: how much do you think the rookie class plays into a set's future value?

1996 and 1997 were incredibly innovative years for card companies and marked the start of a new era, but you also had two amazing rookie classes (Kobe, Duncan, Mcgrady, Iverson, Marbury, Allen, Nash). 1952 Topps set the standard for future sets, but it also has the Mantle and Mays rookies. 03-04 Exquisite marked the beginning of the "high-end" era, but it was also the rookie year of Lebron James.

Do you guys think it's coincidence that these innovative sets happen to also generally have key rookie cards in them? It seems like too much to be coincidence, but also seems like these sets would have been just as innovative and influential without them...

[jjohnson814]

Great points. And yes, a lot of my analysis benefits from hindsight. That being said, those sets were already the most expensive sets when I started "investing" in them. At the time, I was sure they weren't going any higher. And that was over ten years ago.

In regards to your second point, I would actually consider those "hot cards" more stable than non-blue chip cards in the event the market turns south. I remember when the recession hit, a lot of vintage baseball cards took a hit too. The only cards that didn't really go down in value were blue chip cards (mantle, ruth, gehrig, etc.). It seemed to me like mid-range HOFers and common cards from less popular sets took the biggest hit. That being said, the hobby as a whole weathered the storm pretty well, so I'm not sure if that qualifies as the type of "macro scale" event you were referring to. Also, this is all just based on my recollection of ebay prices so take it with a grain of salt. Also, I majored in philosophy, so take any market advice I give with an even bigger grain of salt.



I would just add that the reason people want PMG isn't just because they're rare -- there are plenty of rarer sets that don't fetch 1/100 of what PMGs do. The reason PMGs are so expensive is because it was an incredibly influential set, and amongst the other influential sets of the late 90s, it's higher-end with lots of visual appeal.Yeah definitely. Was just using PMG as an example of a set that is helped in popularity by the fact that it's hard to find in good condition. It's definitely not the main reason.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[YuppieMonkey]

If you are concerned about value, how about you collect retired players and you will know the true value of the card.

I absolutely agree that it is just stupid to invest in cards 'just for fun'. Maybe 30 years ago you could do that, with what cards cost today I would be very careful.

Sometimes I just shake my head at what people collect, I think they just don't like money.

[Starman101]

Your observation is correct OP. But there are ways to counter act it.

Let me preface my points by saying that I have been collecting cards for more than 20 years now (more than 2/3 of my life). Not the longest time among collectors here, but here are what I learned during those years:

(1) For almost all players, they experience peak card card values at their rookie year. This is generally the worst time to buy cards of any player. If you buy at the rookie hype period, the only scenario you will gain value long term is if you are very lucky and pick a player who will eventually go down as one of the top 20 all-time; your chances are less than 1%. Even if you do pick an all-timer, rookie year is still not the point when their prices are lowest.

(2) A few players experience a spike in price during the early parts of their careers when they get a major achievement; an MVP, championship, high profile record. This is also not a time to buy their cards. They may look like can't miss investments during this times, but 90% of them are really not (see T-Mac, GH33, Penny, DRose). Even if in the very small chance they turn out to be Jordan, LeBron, or Kobe, their peak years is still not the time to buy their cards.

(3) The best time to buy cards of a player is when an all-time great is at the twilight of their career and are only a shell of their former selves before they retire. Think Jordan during his Wizards days, or Kobe during his injured seasons.

(4) During the time when a great player is an afterthought and it's time to buy, focus on getting their best and most important cards. When player card demand increases, it is most pronounced in their most desirable cards.

(5) Key cards are difficult to find even when a great player is already an afterthought. To maximize your opportunity and your collecting experience as well, identify underrated cards of these players. These are usually aesthetically pleasing, and well-liked cards that are valued lower than their counterparts.

(6) Lastly, if you really want to get the most long term value from your spending, you need to stay away from sealed product. I understand and agree that they are enjoyable, but you are paying premium for the temporary thrill and there will be no reselling that.

Hopefully these insights help collectors here for the most part. If anyone thinks not, please chime in with your insights as well. :)!

From one collector of 20+ years to another, I agree with all said here :)!

It is because of many of these reasons I only collect singles and stay away from higher end cards of Non-HOF players, until "an all-time great is at the twilight of their career" :)!

It's also important to understand that the state of the economy is also a big factor in timing the best time to buy those higher end cards

Key cards of players like Jordan, Lebron, Kobe, Ruth, Mantle and vintage HOFs cards will always be sought after. Rarer, historically significant cards of these type of players will continue to rise long term and outpace the hype of who could be one of the greats, as opposed to who the All Time greats actually are

With that being said, only since Mantle cards in the 80s have I ever seen such a dramatic increase in value as rarer 90s Jordan cards have over the past 5 years. While I do not think this will be as sustainable in the next 5 years, it shows key cards of proven players can be just as good of an investment as any new rookie who is only taking a brief ride on the hype train. 90% of newer players cards are overpriced with their card value based solely on their "potential" as opposed to their proven success

The longer you are around in this hobby, the more you will become familiar with the truths of the trade. For the most part everything is cyclical

[rj.cataldo]

I don't "invest" in cards. I don't buy cards with a specific desire to make money or to see an appreciation. I also don't collect things that are valuable, just because they are valuable. That said, cards that maintain value, or appreciate in value are attractive to me.

Nostalgia, design, and to a lesser extent rarity, are factors in my purchases, but usually only pertaining to players I collect. I think that, like art, the iconic players/sets will hold or retain value, while the over produced, unoriginal, or repetitive sets of many players who won't obtain all time status, will eventually go down. But I own cards like that as well, because if something appeals to me, it appeals to me.

So ultimately, I don't collect off value, but it is a factor that makes me appreciate specific elements of my collection. I get enjoyment when I buy a card and it appreciates significantly, even if I don't intend to sell. In my mind, that is not mutually exclusive with being a collector.

[drobfan8]

I don't "invest" in cards. I don't buy cards with a specific desire to make money or to see an appreciation. I also don't collect things that are valuable, just because they are valuable. That said, cards that maintain value, or appreciate in value are attractive to me.

Nostalgia, design, and to a lesser extent rarity, are factors in my purchases, but usually only pertaining to players I collect. I think that, like art, the iconic players/sets will hold or retain value, while the over produced, unoriginal, or repetitive sets of many players who won't obtain all time status, will eventually go down. But I own cards like that as well, because if something appeals to me, it appeals to me.

So ultimately, I don't collect off value, but it is a factor that makes me appreciate specific elements of my collection. I get enjoyment when I buy a card and it appreciates significantly, even if I don't intend to sell. In my mind, that is not mutually exclusive with being a collector.

This is an excellent post.

:)!

[packfan15412]

My philosophy has and will always be... Sell at the peak you might miss out on some money but those examples are pretty darn rare with the exception of MJ, Lebron, Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers (Basically once in a lifetime players).

Guys that I sold at the peak and their prices might not ever get back to where they were at the peak:

Stephen Curry, Jeremy Lin, Giannis (The only guy I think might come back and bite me) Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, Porzingis, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook etc.

[myusasets]

did someone say wait till the player is dead two years then buy the card.

[frisbeesteve]

I don't "invest" in cards. I don't buy cards with a specific desire to make money or to see an appreciation. I also don't collect things that are valuable, just because they are valuable. That said, cards that maintain value, or appreciate in value are attractive to me.

Nostalgia, design, and to a lesser extent rarity, are factors in my purchases, but usually only pertaining to players I collect. I think that, like art, the iconic players/sets will hold or retain value, while the over produced, unoriginal, or repetitive sets of many players who won't obtain all time status, will eventually go down. But I own cards like that as well, because if something appeals to me, it appeals to me.

So ultimately, I don't collect off value, but it is a factor that makes me appreciate specific elements of my collection. I get enjoyment when I buy a card and it appreciates significantly, even if I don't intend to sell. In my mind, that is not mutually exclusive with being a collector.

This is an excellent post.

:)!

Totally agreed!

[Jin]

I think what we're seeing nowadays is that supply influences prices more than demand, even though the two are related (but not interdependent.) There definitely are examples of values increasing outside of the players you mentioned.

Kawhi non-rookie autos used to sell for $50 a year ago, and ever since people realized he wasn't signing they're up near $100 right now. Same goes for guys like Harden and Westbrook. Same goes for recent retirees who don't have cards in products anymore like TD and Garnett. You just have to pay close attention to the market.

[Springerj23]

For those of you saying cards are not an investment. It’s the same as stocks. Some are performers and some are not. The data is there to do your homework and make money. If a great buy presents itself pick it up. Don’t be hesitant to sell, whether it’s 2 days, 2 weeks, or 2 years later. Profit is profit! Patience is a virtue, and sometimes you have to take your heart out of it!

[k13]

It gets worse when you include inflation into the mix.