Some tongue in cheek rules for football card "investing"

[Drdduet]

1. Never buy into RB hype, start acquiring a specific RB's RC's only after he has rushed for 8000 yards in his first five seasons and has been injury free....unless you flip and flop after big games.

2. Acquire QB RC's when they come out of lower draft round talent and sell when they get a start or hold for 20 years if their the next Tom Brady.

3. Acquire RC's of defensive lineman/LB's after they have have had at least 2 consecutive stellar seasons--these guys usually will have relatively longer careers, unless of course their stellar performance was due to PED's.

4. Acquire tougher RC's of O-lineman after 5 years of stellar performance--they will usually keep up the performance for at least a decade.

5. Topps Chrome and refractors has had some of the greatest percentage gains over the years. I guess Prizm is now the "base" RC and non-auto'd parallels to go after. Buy "lots" of the guys you have a hunch about when they come out and just let them sit.

6. Time is your best friend with desirable low #'d parallels of the most popular sets. Just pick up the biggest stars and over the years you will their prices climb.

7. Spend your money on the top brands and avoid the other stuff.

8. Look for guys who sat behind All-Americans and never got their chance in college, they could come out as bargains and shine in the NFL.

9. Avoid acquiring head cases. Sell them if you got them into any hype.

10. Keep up with stats, a guy who is the top 5 stats for his position year after year is one who is on good trajectory.

Any others?

[Bowman1951]

I wouldn't call this "tongue and cheek" at all, it's fairly strong advice overall.

T&C would be like, "only invest in RB's who have one 150 yard game or QB's at the top of their hype, like RGIII and Manziel".

[Siberian13]

Only buy Tom Brady. Only one that matters.

Never buy boxes or cases. Only buy singles of tom brady

[21Pittsburgh58]

What if Patriots fans want Tom Brady's box? Or a case of Tom Brady to guzzle?

Just kidding Pats fans, he's still the G.O.A.T.

[nabzy28]

After nearly 30 years, I've whittled it down to just one: On-card, HOFer QB autos, with the occasional HOF RB thrown in, from mid-high end sets. Though, eventually, I suppose everyone should refine their collecting to arrive at the ultimate rule, noted above. Only Tom Brady.

[patchgenie]

Step 1: Buy tom brady rookies

step 2: buy jimmy G rookies

Step 3: profit

[Siberian13]

Step 1: Buy tom brady rookies

step 2: buy jimmy G rookies

Step 3: profit

Step 2 is a bad idea

[packfan15412]

Lets be real...

Step 1: Lube up
Step 2: Accept it
Step 3: Lube up again because you know you can't quit the hobby

[IronMonkey415]

I would start a collection of a a QB that threw 5 int in his first NFL start.

[hairysasquatch]

Lets be real...

Step 1: Lube up
Step 2: Accept it
Step 3: Lube up again because you know you can't quit the hobby

This is solid advice for the current Poopnini era of production. :)!

[jlemire]

I would start a collection of a a QB that threw 5 int in his first NFL start.

shhhhhhhhhhh im horading Nathan Peterman.....it goes well with my Greg Oden and Todd Van Popple collection...

[socal805]

Only buy Tom Brady. Only one that matters.

Never buy boxes or cases. Only buy singles of tom bradyAre these rules for a certain social class (you know to who I'm referring)?

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[Siberian13]

Are these rules for a certain social class (you know to who I'm referring)?

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Yes, buy Tom Brady 2017 base cards.

[MFaulkCollector]

1,3,4,5,6,7...... have been doing these for the last 3-4 years

one thing i would add/amend......... to the defensive/o-line grouping

look for guys with first team all pro teams (preferably in bunches)... ie a guy like suh with 3 in a row, donald, kuechly with 4, earl thomas with 3 in a row, ricahrd sherman with 3 in a row, patrick peterson with 3, joe thomas with 6......... when you can pair the number of these teams with a guys age you have a great look at his hof pedigree............. ie kuechly with 4 being 27 next year and a dpoy on the belt equals a likely first ballot hofer

[SirTommyWinAlot]

Go with Brady and you will win. ALWAYS.

[Hallco]

7. Spend your money on the top brands and avoid the other stuff.

What are the Top Brands(for non-autos) at this point?

[DJCollector1]

Here are some points I posted some time ago in another long buried thread.


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I think these are all great investments moving forward.

Johnny Unitas rookie - and all early cards in high grade.
Joe Namath rookie - and all early cards in high grade.
Jim Brown rookie - I believe Brown to be one of the best investments in all of vintage football. (actually, I think its more timing than anything else. I think he is one of the last few truly great vintage players. At age 81 he is at an age where he can go at any time, and I expect there to be a sizable bump when he eventually does pass away.)
Roger Staubach rookie - and all early cards in high grade.
Jerry Rice rookie, PSA 9 or PSA 10 only.
Walter Payton rookie - and all early cards in high grade.
Lawrence Taylor rookie - PSA 9 or PSA 10 only.
Joe Montana rookie - and pretty much anything he is on, in high grade.
(he is still extremely popular to this day)
Reggie White rookie.
Joe Greene rookie.
John Elway rookie - PSA 9 and PSA 10 only.
Dan Marino rookie - PSA 9 and PSA 10 only.
Gale Sayers rookie - and early cards in high grade.
O.J. Simpson rookie - I am only inclined to keep a highly graded rookie for him. His cards became pretty much stagnant after his whole "situation".
I don't know if his values will ever be the same again, and likely won't.
I would hate to have a strong vintage collection without any of his cards though. Regardless of what he did or did not do, he was a tremendous player.

On vintage cards, often there is a great value in players second and third year cards. They can be had for a fraction of what their rookies cards demand, and they should appreciate well over time pretty damn well also.
You will note for a few I said "rookie/PSA 9 and PSA 10 only".
The ones I said this on, there were a ton of cards made those years.
The Jerry Rice rookie is a prime example.
Sooner or later I will snag me a nice copy, but I won't even bother unless its a PSA 9 or higher. There are just so many around. I DO feel it will appreciate, but I want to be at the top of that curve....considering there are so many around.

Now, on the current items. Its a bit trickier, like many of us know.
You literally have to stay in roughly the top 5% or so players and cards.
An emphasis should go to QBs obviously.
I think we all know who the QB big prospects are.

RBs are much more interesting to consider.
I think at RB, its a very small selection to look at, and there may even be 4-5 RBs A DECADE to even consider....or even fewer.

One modern example I would consider at RB to think of as profitable going forward is Adrian Peterson. If you have any of his Contenders rookie autos they do fairly well I think right?
I am not familiar with his prices really, but from memory I think his 9.5 Contenders rookies were in the $400+ range. I still think he would benefit from one more strong year, to help erase the bad publicity he had there for a spell.
But if he goes on to the HOF, I think his cards are going to be solid investments.

I am also a big believer in David Johnson. He literally does at times look like that "once in a decade" type talent. Had he not gotten injured late last season, he would have broken the record of 15 straight 100 yard games held by Barry Sanders.
He prices are also being held back a bit, since he is on a team that doesn't look like a big Super Bowl contender. (in fact, if they don't make a run this year, he may not ever have that chance again, IF he stays in AZ.)
If he continues on this pace for another 3-5 years, then the HOF whispers will begin.
Contrast that to Ezekiel Elliott. Here is a guy that literally is in the perfect storm of scenario, situation, future and talent.
I don't think he is quite the talent of David Johnson (lets not argue that, give Elliott another year or two before we start comparing please) yet he now runs behind one of the best lines in the league.
Oh wait, lets not forget he is on arguably the most high profile team in the league. They are also primed to make playoff runs for the foreseeable future.
He also has another rookie there at QB in Prescott, so at least for the next year or two there will be a constant buzz of excitement in Dallas, and that will undoubtedly help EZE's value.
Will it last? Who knows, but if he continues to put up strong years and stats, and the team has success, his cards should be hotly sought after for years to come.

Other names that people mention due to recent success or performance -
LeVeon Bell - I don't see his cards being great investments. I think injuries + other "knuckle headed-ness" might ultimately get the better of him.
He is in a good situation, and the offense leans heavily on him. If he could stay healthy, and "clean" I suppose its possible for him to be a good long term investment, but I don't see it happening. A Super Bowl run would really help him.
Frank Gore - This guy right here is the perfect example of how weird the football card market is.
His cards can be had for very low prices , when you take into account how many years he has been in the league and the yards he has piled up.
You can snag a PSA 9 mint Contenders rookie for $69.99 OBO right now on Ebay.
Thats sad.


I will post more thoughts on this later, but the more I see this hobby and football in general, I lean more towards collecting high grade vintage BASEBALL.

I still believe in the older football cards, but I am leaning more and more towards the highest grades, on the biggest names.
I don't see any harm in sticking to PSA 8 and above .
Yes I realize it prices some collectors out, and some cards I cannot acquire either.
But the bigger "more affordable" cards in higher grades, are the more valuable ones in the years to come.

*Please realize these comments were made before 2017 began, I believe. The comments on AP, David Johnson and EZE would obviously change some moving forward.


Original thread where I went back and got this is here. ------> https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1126731&highlight=vintage+djcollector1

[SirTommyWinAlot]

Don't listen to the guy above me. OJ? AP? Modern RB's? pfffft.

OP go win with Tom. I promise you, you will win. Yeah the guy above me has some good suggestions like Montana but he's hosing you with the OJ and modern RB recommendations. Sorry I don't mean to be crass, but I hate bad advice.

[DJCollector1]

Don't listen to the guy above me. OJ? AP? Modern RB's? pfffft.

OP go win with Tom. I promise you, you will win. Yeah the guy above me has some good suggestions like Montana but he's hosing you with the OJ and modern RB recommendations. Sorry I don't mean to be crass, but I hate bad advice.

No, not hosing anyone, and I added a footnote to that post.
Those RB comments were written well before the 2017 season.

The fact is, vintage is usually an extremely strong investment. (in the highest grades that is)

My comments on OJ should be read again. I don't look at him as a great investment. His cards (as I alluded to) went stagnant. BUT -
My comments were
O.J. Simpson rookie - I am only inclined to keep a highly graded rookie for him. His cards became pretty much stagnant after his whole "situation".
I don't know if his values will ever be the same again, and likely won't.
I would hate to have a strong vintage collection without any of his cards though. Regardless of what he did or did not do, he was a tremendous player.

I really don't see how thats "hosing anyone". Nowhere did I say he was a "great investment", but I would not like a great vintage collection that didn't at least have some type of representation of OJ. People forget how good he was. (and i get why so lets not even get into that)

And one other note - you said Sorry I don't mean to be crass, but I hate bad advice.

Do you really think buying in right now at Brady prices is a great investment???
If you want the real truth (if you didn't figure out from my post), I don't think virtually ANY modern stuff is a great "investment" in that sense. The RBs I mentioned included.
Too many here are into "speculating" on the current players, and as most of you know, the large majority of that goes South, sooner than later.
Sure, I would have loved to have a few Brady Contenders laying around , as would most here.
But at these historic peaks, I can promise you I would be selling, selling, selling.
I get he is arguably the best ever. But there is no one in history whos cards have seen this type of dramatic spike....at least not in this type time window.
I want no parts of buying in on Brady right now. His biggest spikes in price have already occurred as far as I'm concerned.

Give me high grade and high eye-appeal vintage all day, every day over the new stuff.

[unitasfan]

best advice I got is not to "invest" in cardboard. Collect...sure. invest...no. I do agree on don't open boxes and cases. Buy singles. Not as fun but at least you will be much more satisfied in your collection...my buddy was right...

[SirTommyWinAlot]

No, not hosing anyone, and I added a footnote to that post.
Those RB comments were written well before the 2017 season.

The fact is, vintage is usually an extremely strong investment. (in the highest grades that is)

My comments on OJ should be read again. I don't look at him as a great investment. His cards (as I alluded to) went stagnant. BUT -
My comments were
I really don't see how thats "hosing anyone". Nowhere did I say he was a "great investment", but I would not like a great vintage collection that didn't at least have some type of representation of OJ. People forget how good he was. (and i get why so lets not even get into that)

And one other note - you said Sorry I don't mean to be crass, but I hate bad advice.

Do you really think buying in right now at Brady prices is a great investment???
If you want the real truth (if you didn't figure out from my post), I don't think virtually ANY modern stuff is a great "investment" in that sense. The RBs I mentioned included.
Too many here are into "speculating" on the current players, and as most of you know, the large majority of that goes South, sooner than later.
Sure, I would have loved to have a few Brady Contenders laying around , as would most here.
But at these historic peaks, I can promise you I would be selling, selling, selling.
I get he is arguably the best ever. But there is no one in history whos cards have seen this type of dramatic spike....at least not in this type time window.
I want no parts of buying in on Brady right now. His biggest spikes in price have already occurred as far as I'm concerned.

Give me high grade and high eye-appeal vintage all day, every day over the new stuff.

I skimmed through the oj crap, after all the list was headed by, "all these are great investments moving forward."

And Brady's cards are the vanguard if you will for modern sports card prices. Much like Mantle's prices did for post war cards or what we call vintage, brady's cards will do for the modern serial numbered, low print rookie cards of today. Everybody that has sold Brady has regretted it. These people selling now, will regret it too.

[socal805]

Do you really think buying in right now at Brady prices is a great investment???

Sure, I would have loved to have a few Brady Contenders laying around , as would most here.
But at these historic peaks, I can promise you I would be selling, selling, selling.
I get he is arguably the best ever. But there is no one in history whos cards have seen this type of dramatic spike....at least not in this type time window.
I want no parts of buying in on Brady right now. His biggest spikes in price have already occurred as far as I'm concerned.


Thank you ^^^ for the use of common Sense.

Brady was a GREAT investment.

Is he currently a GREAT investment? No.

Is he currently a Good investment (for those who can afford it)? Yes.

The problem is he isn't getting any younger. For the foreseeable future I see Brady having 2 (maybe 1) price spikes. Winning this year's SB & during his enshrinement in the HOF.

Those who swear Tom Brady is still a GREAT investment are 1) Patriots fans or 2) someone who's already invested in Brady. Being 100% honest if I was either 1 or 2, I'd be proclaiming Tom Brady is still a GREAT investment. I don't fault you for having that point of view.





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[edisto]

Thank you ^^^ for the use of common Sense.

Brady was a GREAT investment.

Is he currently a GREAT investment? No.

Is he currently a Good investment (for those who can afford it)? Yes.

The problem is he isn't getting any younger. For the foreseeable future I see Brady having 2 (maybe 1) price spikes. Winning this year's SB & during his enshrinement in the HOF.

Those who swear Tom Brady is still a GREAT investment are 1) Patriots fans or 2) someone who's already invested in Brady. Being 100% honest if I was either 1 or 2, I'd be proclaiming Tom Brady is still a GREAT investment. I don't fault you for having that point of view.

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Agree with what you're saying with one slight adjustment. If Patriots win Super Bowl, and have another good start next year (for example, they are 8 wins 2 losses after 10 games), then Brady cards will spike again, even if it doesn't increase like this year.

And bonus conjecture;
Sometime in the future, if a quarterback achieves 3 Super Bowl wins, debates will start about "Who was the best Brady, Montana or __?__ " and Brady cards will elevate even more.

[Soxrule111]

Agree with what you're saying with one slight adjustment. If Patriots win Super Bowl, and have another good start next year (for example, they are 8 wins 2 losses after 10 games), then Brady cards will spike again, even if it doesn't increase like this year.

And bonus conjecture;
Sometime in the future, if a quarterback achieves 3 Super Bowl wins, debates will start about "Who was the best Brady, Montana or __?__ " and Brady cards will elevate even more.

I disagree with this idea. I have never once gone Brady/Manning are doing great, I need to pick up the Previous QBs who were once the best.

[edisto]

I disagree with this idea. I have never once gone Brady/Manning are doing great, I need to pick up the Previous QBs who were once the best.

I see what you're saying but I think you're mis-applying what I was saying. You're comparing your experiences to collecting Brady and Manning and what the football market WAS like compared to Brady prices and what is happening with the major price increases and how non-football collectors are now joining in the Brady collecting. Things have changed dramatically for Brady cards, but not for football cards of other players.

What is happening with the explosion in prices with Brady cards, is more comparable to basketball card market. Football cards will never be as popular as basketball worldwide, but Tom Brady cards are in a league all their own (as far as football cards). It has an appeal to collectors in a similar way to Jordan and Lebron cards.

The whole idea is projecting what could possibly happen "IF" the Patriots win this year's Super Bowl. No football player's cards have ever garnered as much attention or commanded the prices that Tom Brady cards have.

But, this is just opinion. I hear what you're saying. It will fun to see what will be happening years from now.

[Stifle]

I went with Tom Brady rookie cards extremely heavy. I would write down all my EBay transactions and members would be in disbelief if they knew that I would receive thousand dollar cards for a dollar with SASE payments. Figured I would do trade bait for other Wolverine cards if he flopped. Had a dozen or so auto's, about the same in "one of a kinds", it was a massive collection.
If you crack boxes, save the defensive playmakers - Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, C. Woodson, etc. Save the players who are at major selling Universities that were placed in a fewer products that were fan favorites : Bob Sanders, Jim Leonhard, Bryan Hickman, Timmy Chang, many kickers and some punters, etc. I use to trade much of my high end cards for these type of players. Yes, there are multitudes of Jerry Rice, Emmitt, Barry, Montana, collectors but many collectors treasure the players who have that "IT" factor and are guys like James Harrison, Cameron Wake, Tony Romo, the nobody's who made it. Add Kurt Warner, the entire Patriots wide receiving crew. Guys who grew up in the same State that went to the State University - Tim Dwight or from a nearby Uni that ended up going to the Pro team. Different kinds of collecting ideas of collecting outside the box.