Graded Chrome Refractor RC Breakdown & Jimmy G. Perspective (Brady Bubble?)

[TheFrenzy]

Just spent some time browsing eBay's completed sales listing and here are the results for what PSA 10 / BGS 9.5 Chrome Refractor RCs of top QBs are selling for. Something to keep in mind when anyone is making purchases. Here's what you can realistically expect to spend on the top QBs if you're looking to pick up a mint (10 / 9.5) graded copy of their Chrome Refractor RC:

Bortles, Blake - $40
Brady, Tom - $20,000
Brees, Drew - $4000-5000
Carr, Derek - $50-75
Cousins, Kirk - $25
Flacco, Joe - $35
Garoppolo, Jimmy - $100-150
Luck, Andrew - $150
Manning, Eli - $500
Manning, Peyton - $750-1000
Mariota, Marcus - $25
Newton, Cam - $35
Rivers, Philip - $150
Rodgers, Aaron - $1250
Roethlisberger, Ben - $1250
Romo, Tony - $75
Ryan, Matt - $50
Smith, Alex - $35
Stafford, Matthew - $75
Wilson, Russell - $75
Winston, Jameis - $35

Make this what you will, but it seems to me that people paying the current prices for Jimmy G. cards are betting that he will have a better career than Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and several other top QBs.

That's crazy to me.

[MeteoriteGuy]

Rivers and Winston the best investments?

[TheFrenzy]

Rivers and Winston the best investments?

The market is going to have some serious correcting to do once Brady retires.

I expect Brady prices will drop and other QBs will rise. People will realize that Brady was the BitCoin of the NFL and that other QBs like Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, the Manning bros, etc. had pretty damn good careers.

Right now several guys look undervalued due to the "Brady Effect."

EDIT: Going by Brady's prices, either we've got to say that Super Bowl wins are worth $4000 in value or Super Bowl appearances are worth $2500. Regardless, we've got a lot of undervalued QBs.

[majestik101]

Clecters are morons. Bortles is going for more than Winston and Cam. Gimme a break.

Well at least Winston is selling for more than Mariota. Win?

[TheFrenzy]

Clecters

Have you trademarked this?

Because I'm a fan.

Clecter: The lemming/sheep of the hobby world.

[majestik101]

Have you trademarked this?

Because I'm a fan.

Clecter: The lemming/sheep of the hobby world.

lol I can't take credit. Saw someone say it here on the boards and it stuck with me. It's catchy, rolls off the tongue, like Jimmy Geesus (which I now have the guy at my LCS calling him now) lol

[TheFrenzy]

It's catchy, rolls off the tongue

More so than "poopnini."

[pejc300]

I appreciate the breakdown of prices. Your analysis is pretty weak though. There's so much more to consider. Brady, like Jordan, is in a league of his own. The market hasn't 'corrected' to Jordan. Additionally, Brady only has the Bowman chrome refractor. No Topps chrome and condition sensitive. The only potential correction I see coming is Manning still seems cheap to me.

[LCM1223]

The only potential correction I see coming is Manning still seems cheap to me.

Surprised at Brees being 4-5x more than Peyton

[TheFrenzy]

Brady, like Jordan, is in a league of his own. The market hasn't 'corrected' to Jordan.

The difference being the obvious fact that Jordan was nearly single-handily responsible for that Bulls team's championships and hands-down better than any other player in the league during his reign. Those arguments can't be made to nearly the same extent for Brady.

The most successful QB in the modern era? Sure.

The most dominant football player on the planet during his time? Ehhh.......Matt Cassell sure did have some success when Brady went down......

[twisty571]

Oh yeah this Jimmy G madness is crazy! $3000+ for an NT already!

[TheFrenzy]

Oh yeah this Jimmy G madness is crazy! $3000+ for an NT already!

Sellers probably want me to shut up, but buyers need to beware.

Unless you honestly believe that Jimmy G. is going to win multiple super bowls, you are throwing money away!

[twisty571]

Sellers probably want me to shut up, but buyers need to beware.

Unless you honestly believe that Jimmy G. is going to win multiple super bowls, you are throwing money away!

Honestly I call this the Andrew Luck bubble more so than Brady. I feel back 10-15 years ago we had an initial hype price but it wasn't insane. The prices actually rose when they actually played good and accomplished something. It took Brady prices a couple years to take off and 15+ to go crazy. You could buy SPA & Contenders for under $100-$200 for the biggest names on the initial and we didn't have 3 versions and 4+ parallel's of each and DP Contenders to water it down more. I am excited for Optic Contenders for some reason (maybe it reminds me of 97' Totally Certified) but it waters down the Contenders market even more IMO. These guys paying $400-$500 for a Watson Contenders will feel like the guys who went high on Contenders DP after NFL Contenders came out IMO. I paid $160ish for my SP2 DP Contenders Watson but had been watching them and noticed that this variation was a real SSP. Only 2 I have seen surface and the only graded copy. That's the 1 I bought and so far it's still the only graded and 2nd I have seen.

[ThoseBackPages]

not sure why anyone collecting NFL cards would buy anyone BUT Brady

as for his (or anyones) Refractor Rookie Year Card (because refractors are parallels and not RCs, just "worth" a lot more), hate to break it to ya, but there are less Bradys made (nevermind SURVIVING 18 years later) then anyone else on that list lol

[twisty571]

not sure why anyone collecting NFL cards would buy anyone BUT Brady

as for his (or anyones) Refractor Rookie Year Card (because refractors are parallels and not RCs, just "worth" a lot more), hate to break it to ya, but there are less Bradys made (nevermind SURVIVING 18 years later) then anyone else on that list lol
I think there will be ALOT in 18 years with this day and age of grading cards.

[TheFrenzy]

not sure why anyone collecting NFL cards would buy anyone BUT Brady

Probably because Brady prices right now are like gold prices back in 2011.

Unsustainably high.

[thenwhatjk]

How is this different than how it’s always been in every sport for as long as I can remember. You could copy-paste this entire post and sub out the names and the sets and it’s the same thing, how dare Ronald Acuna sell for more than Joey Votto, how dare Devin Booker sell for more than some oldish peaked out bball guy. This is the nature of our hobby

[cking]

I think its funny that Jimmy G goes for $100+ and has accomplished nothing

Yet Flacco, who has won a Super Bowl and had one of the best post seasons for a QB in history in thier Super Bowl run and his chrome refractor is only $35

[TheFrenzy]

How is this different than how it’s always been in every sport for as long as I can remember.

And collectors have been making poor decisions in every sport since before even you can remember.

The purpose of this post is to give at least some perspective to the decisions being made at present.

Nothing more, nothing less.

[MeteoriteGuy]

I found it interesting. I think it definitely shows a disconnect from what we pay and on field performance.

I would also go out on a short limb, as its not too hard of a prediction, that clecters will continue to gravitate towards Topps Chrome rcs, over most other rcs.

Now if we continue to gravitate towards TC rcs, and if the prices of anyone not named Brady level out as Frenzy suggest...these might be great investment worthy targets. (Likely to gain much more then 4%...compared to say US bonds at 3%).

[ThoseBackPages]

i totally agree there is a huge difference between NFL good and NFL CARD good

[RAV2773]

Production numbers also have to be considered here for each player and year. I'm sure there are more refractors made of some of these players, making them much easier to find which keeps the pricing for those guys down

[deemsterz33]

The iconic players always get an exponential amount more than the next in line. Mantle, Jordan, LeBron, Brady, Orr.

A good example is in basketball, where LeBron's TC Refractors sell for 20x more than Dwyane Wade's from the same set. LeBron is just that more of a cultural icon.

[RandysHobby]

This makes me love buying Wentz PRIZMs colored for fractions of some of these.

[packerfan4200]

This makes me love buying Wentz PRIZMs colored for fractions of some of these.

Meh, it's prizm...

[NoleinJax]

Just spent some time browsing eBay's completed sales listing and here are the results for what PSA 10 / BGS 9.5 Chrome Refractor RCs of top QBs are selling for. Something to keep in mind when anyone is making purchases. Here's what you can realistically expect to spend on the top QBs if you're looking to pick up a mint (10 / 9.5) graded copy of their Chrome Refractor RC:

Bortles, Blake - $40
Brady, Tom - $20,000
Brees, Drew - $4000-5000
Carr, Derek - $50-75
Cousins, Kirk - $25
Flacco, Joe - $35
Garoppolo, Jimmy - $100-150
Luck, Andrew - $150
Manning, Eli - $500
Manning, Peyton - $750-1000
Mariota, Marcus - $25
Newton, Cam - $35
Rivers, Philip - $150
Rodgers, Aaron - $1250
Roethlisberger, Ben - $1250
Romo, Tony - $75
Ryan, Matt - $50
Smith, Alex - $35
Stafford, Matthew - $75
Wilson, Russell - $75
Winston, Jameis - $35

Make this what you will, but it seems to me that people paying the current prices for Jimmy G. cards are betting that he will have a better career than Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and several other top QBs.

That's crazy to me.

Are you talking base non-auto refractors?

[thenwhatjk]

This makes me love buying Wentz PRIZMs colored for fractions of some of these.

Optic brah

[ninjacookies]

Good lord.

Was unaware that Brees commanded that much.

Also, if the hobby has ever taught me anything, it's to buy high when a player is undefeated and appears invincible, then sell low.

Works every time.

[jjeanius]

I think its funny that Jimmy G goes for $100+ and has accomplished nothing

Yet Flacco, who has won a Super Bowl and had one of the best post seasons for a QB in history in thier Super Bowl run and his chrome refractor is only $35

Flacco? Really...? If anything, I think Jimmy G is 3x Flacco simply because he hasn’t disappointed on quite that level yet. But hey, if you like Flacco, I also recommend going all in on Trent Dilfer. He has a ring too!

[Drdduet]

Supply and demand; not one or the other, basic economic principle that drives prices, supply and demand.

[Bassplayah101]

Flacco is also in a small market, which lacks bubblegum money to spend on cardboard.

Personally, I put Flacco in the same category as Trend Dilfer.
Hate on me all you want.

[jjeanius]

Personally, I put Flacco in the same category as Trend Dilfer.


I think I already said that...! ;)

[Bassplayah101]

I think I already said that...! ;)

Glanced right over it.. Im glad we agree.

[RogerGodahell]

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4645/39519801282_7d68aacdda_o.jpg

[cking]

Flacco? Really...? If anything, I think Jimmy G is 3x Flacco simply because he hasn’t disappointed on quite that level yet. But hey, if you like Flacco, I also recommend going all in on Trent Dilfer. He has a ring too!

Based on what though? What has Jimmy G done?

[deemsterz33]

Flacco? Really...? If anything, I think Jimmy G is 3x Flacco simply because he hasn’t disappointed on quite that level yet. But hey, if you like Flacco, I also recommend going all in on Trent Dilfer. He has a ring too!

Flacco is a disappointment? Super Bowl MVP with a career 92-62 record. Only one losing season, during which he was injured for close to half the season.

What you talking about? You Jimmy G homers are hilarious.

[RedMikeC]

That why this hobby is a little dangerous because prices drop fast on players during/after their prime.

[packerfan4200]

Flacco is a disappointment? Super Bowl MVP with a career 92-62 record. Only one losing season, during which he was injured for close to half the season.

What you talking about? You Jimmy G homers are hilarious.

Joe can't hold james' jock

[pazerbaijan]

https://i.imgur.com/LTE2q2k.png

[hanstess]

It would be interesting how Jimmy G's prices would be had he not been Brady's backup. Seems like his hype is due to that and that alone.

[Bassplayah101]

It would be interesting how Jimmy G's prices would be had he not been Brady's backup. Seems like his hype is due to that and that alone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xWVBcTBLW8

[hanstess]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xWVBcTBLW8

Perfect!!!!!!!!!

[deemsterz33]

Joe won't hold james' jock

Fixed it for ya

[TheFrenzy]

Flacco is a disappointment? Super Bowl MVP with a career 92-62 record. Only one losing season, during which he was injured for close to half the season.

What you talking about? You Jimmy G homers are hilarious.

Careful with that kind of talk! :eek:

The "investors" on the board don't take too kindly to folks bad mouthing their newest sweet thang. :rolleyes:

But seriously, Jimmy G is massively over-inflated at this point. Even if he wins a Super Bowl, his prices will still only come down from where they are right now over the long run. Anyone actually buying his cards right now is betting that he wins at least two Super Bowls and stays healthy over a long career. It's a suckers bet.

Buy low. Sell high.

Half the community gets it (those selling Jimmy G) and half the community doesn't (those buying Jimmy G).

[thenwhatjk]

This post is a nice mix of old man yells at cloud and you kids get off my lawn

Careful with that kind of talk! :eek:

The "investors" on the board don't take too kindly to folks bad mouthing their newest sweet thang. :rolleyes:

Same thing happens with the oldest sweet thang, not sure if you’ve ever gone in the Tom Brady rc tracker thread or literally any thread about any majorly exciting athlete who appears on sports cards

But seriously, Jimmy G is massively over-inflated at this point. Rough translation: I didn’t buy anything when he was cheap

Even if he wins a Super Bowl, his prices will still only come down from where they are right now over the long run. Cool so just like everybody in football besides Brady, got it. In other news, water is wet

Anyone actually buying his cards right now is betting that he wins at least two Super Bowls and stays healthy over a long career. It's a suckers bet. The people buying right now are most likely not the type to be on blowout, to make a bit of a generalization. Folks like us are either already in or they’re super loud about being out, which is fine. Maybe there’s some folks like us who are grabbing a low end auto or something at peak just to have a little piece of the action, maybe a little irrational but god knows I’ve done that a bunch of times myself, human nature psychology blah blah etc

Buy low. Sell high.You should give a ted talk

Half the community gets it (those selling Jimmy G)Dumb as hell as there’s not going to be a lower point for his values between now and camp than post super bowl pre draft lull

and half the community doesn't (those buying Jimmy G).If you’re just randomly laying out $125 on a not cool topps sticker auto, I’m 100% with you, that will most likely not work out for the buyer in the long run but are there inefficiencies in his market that can be exploited right this minute? Yes there are. But going back to the idea that the average February 2018 Jimmy G buyer is not a blowout type person, how much do you think Joe Silicon Valley or Bob Thirsty Niners Fan is concerned with “getting it”? Maybe your goal in the hobby is to make money and “get it” but you can’t project that on all buyers


Also, ska is the worst

[deemsterz33]

^^^^^^^^
Well that was quite the lengthy breakdown lol.

Just from an objective perspective, the Jimmy G values are truly overblown. If you can't agree with that, you have some vested interest in the hype continuing. TheFrenzy made very valid points. His prices are in line with MVP caliber/ Future HOF prices in some cases. I can say personally I wish I had grabbed Jimmy G's before they went up, but can also say it's only because I would have unloaded every single one of them by now at the current prices. Unless 49ers go to the SB next year, you're probably looking at the peak of Jimmy G prices for a looooong time.

[Bassplayah101]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQnigH3KPo9Uk5LeB9oJ6lqlWzCHRKgbofEAnBHCLebPGAIyLf1

[MFaulkCollector]

the prices on a lot of these are population or print run based..... then you have parallels of later years

for instance the brady is probably 500 or so copies, maybe 750... it's rare AF and he has no other rookie refractor.... plus he is among the best players to ever step on a field

brees is a ridiculous low pop..... like in the 5-6 range i think.. and it's from the lowest print run topps chrome ever came out with... plus the refractor is actually the base.. the "refractor" in technical terms is the black

rodgers is probably on a print run of 2000ish.. pretty low still but the pop on psa 10 is 5 i think... if one of those sells you will see the effect, probably 6-7k

manning is from an era where topps chrome doesn't really matter....... ex credentials, skybox ruby, crusade purple and red, brilliants 24k, bowmans best atomic, atomic auto's.. it's the 90s insert craze on hyperdrive. with a pop of 38-40 i think the manning looks undervalued at 800-1000... but it's just because people would rather buy other stuff

enter 04 where chrome refs were pretty limited, maybe 2000-2500 copies..... you deflate a little with the xfractor coming into the mix and a secondary /100 refractor from the premiere subset.... but pops on eli and ben are still fairly low, and chrome is still hot as only spa, contenders really come out on top at a higher level

then you get to 08 with matt ryan... and we start to see shifting in prices as the blue, xfrac, red, super, gold, copper, super auto... etc comes out.... the base ref is an afterthought because even at the 10 level.. who cares? people spending money are after bigger fish

newton, luck, wilson, anyone else 11 forward.... see ryan then multiple that x10..... 25 parallels and auto's from topps chrome better than the ref... an afterthought to the millionith degree

big time collectors and investors want big time items.. they want the best. the brees 10 is the best, the rodgers 10 is the best, brady any grade is the best, as the years pass that is not true........ it explains a lot of the pricing discrepancies and talent comparisons

[thenwhatjk]

^^^^^^^^
Well that was quite the lengthy breakdown lol.

Just from an objective perspective, the Jimmy G values are truly overblown. If you can't agree with that, you have some vested interest in the hype continuing. TheFrenzy made very valid points. His prices are in line with MVP caliber/ Future HOF prices in some cases. I can say personally I wish I had grabbed Jimmy G's before they went up, but can also say it's only because I would have unloaded every single one of them by now at the current prices. Unless 49ers go to the SB next year, you're probably looking at the peak of Jimmy G prices for a looooong time.

I’m not even arguing against values being overblown from an outside perspective, all I’m saying is that they are perfectly in line with how stuff works in cards and has always worked in cards. Values are very often based more on future ceilings than current accomplishments and being pissed about that has nothing to do with Jimmy and whether or not he’ll be a hall of famer or a huge bust.

Honest question though, do you really think February is the peak of his values? Am I completely crazy to think it’ll actually be like July or whatever, not speaking at all to what he does when the season starts?

[dio]

I'm the dumb buyer and I'm loving it. I have not purchase any modern card until jimmy G. I only purchase vintage cards

Do i expect to lose money yes most likely
do i care about losing money, not really
Do i expect him to be like tom brady, nope
If he plays well and get us deep into playoff next year , do i think i can still afford some of his high demand rookies(contenders cracked ice/championship ticket etc....) Nope, i don't want to miss the chance of owning one while still able to buy.
Did i jump on Kapernick when he took us to superbowl game, nope, i don't see anything special of him, even he took us to the superbowl i do think he sucks. JG on the other hand even a few games blows me away. Our coach I'm sure he's able to grab kirk cousin this year(with relation with him and our cap space) but he prefer to take JG over him, just that alone tells you something. I'm sure he knows football way better than us. We'll see how he does next year once he knows the playbook.

[deemsterz33]

I’m not even arguing against values being overblown from an outside perspective, all I’m saying is that they are perfectly in line with how stuff works in cards and has always worked in cards. Values are very often based more on future ceilings than current accomplishments and being pissed about that has nothing to do with Jimmy and whether or not he’ll be a hall of famer or a huge bust.

Honest question though, do you really think February is the peak of his values? Am I completely crazy to think it’ll actually be like July or whatever, not speaking at all to what he does when the season starts?

Between now and season will be the highest IMO. There will probably be a little bump before the season, as there always is. He's going to have to start out the season 6-0, on pace for an MVP caliber to sustain these prices as they stand. A side note to this, I think people forget they are dropping huge $$ on a guy who's going to be almost 27 years old going into his first full season in the NFL.

I can personally say I'm not bummed about any of it. The NFL market needs some more excitement. It's literally 80% Brady and everyone else at this point.

[RedMikeC]

Okay so the real question:

BUY / SELL / HOLD J. Garoppolo?

[deemsterz33]

Okay so the real question:

BUY / SELL / HOLD J. Garoppolo?

If it was me and I wasn't in a rush to sell, I'd just put them up for high BINs and see what offers come in, especially as the preseason nears.