What would you do here?

[Ray27Ray52]

It's the last day of the season and my buddy and I hold a shaky two point lead over our closest opponent for 2nd place. Here's the situation:

The only category that can move the needle definitively today is Whip. Here are the details.

Our team: 1.23 whip
Team #1 1.24 whip
Team #2 1.24 whip
Team #3 (the team directly below us)1.24 whip

As of right now we have Elias going for Seattle and Carrasco for the Indians. Team #1 has Brett Anderson going today. Team #2 has Morton and Severino going. Team #3, the team that can tie or move ahead of us, has no starters.

The reward if Elias and Carrasco both get a win we can gain a .5 point in the standings in wins as long as the whip is respectable. The risk is they both crap out, Team #1 and Team #2 are lights out causing us to lose two points or possibly even 3.

What would you do? Play it safe and drop both Elias and Carrasco effectively standing pat or go for broke and let the chips fall where they may?

[sak0309]

First, I would recalculate the WHIP to a third decimal place. There is a big difference between 1.230 and 1.234. The second place guy might be 1.236 (rounding to 1.24) or maybe as high as 1.244. This way you can calculate what your cushion is today.

Then assume worst case, Elias/Carrasco go 6 IP each with a 2.00 WHIP. Assuming you have a 1.230 WHIP and on 1200 IP, you have 1,476 H+BB. Then adding 24 H+BB and 12 IP, gives you 1,500 divided by 1212 IP or WHIP of 1.238. So, it's hard to tell if that is good enough.

Good luck!

[Ray27Ray52]

First, I would recalculate the WHIP to a third decimal place. There is a big difference between 1.230 and 1.234. The second place guy might be 1.236 (rounding to 1.24) or maybe as high as 1.244. This way you can calculate what your cushion is today.

Then assume worst case, Elias/Carrasco go 6 IP each with a 2.00 WHIP. Assuming you have a 1.230 WHIP and on 1200 IP, you have 1,476 H+BB. Then adding 24 H+BB and 12 IP, gives you 1,500 divided by 1212 IP or WHIP of 1.238. So, it's hard to tell if that is good enough.

Good luck!

Excellent points. I appreciate you going hard there.

Our website actually calculates our whips to several decimal points. Here they are:

Our team: 1342.2 IP 1.233 Whip
Team #1 1281 IP 1.240 whip
Team#2 1463.2 IP 1.241 whip
Team#3 1241 IP 1.243 whip

Looking at these numbers if would be extremely difficult, when seeing all those IP between us, that even a disaster outcome for our pitchers would move the needle. Am I right?

[hxcmilkshake]

Not as well thought as the other guys post but yeah I think you'll be fine as is

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[sak0309]

You should be good to go.

[glen87]

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/HeavySlipperyHammerheadshark-size_restricted.gif

[Ray27Ray52]

I appreciate all the help everyone!

[Hollywood42]

I'd at least start Carrasco without much hesitation

[AlexHunter]

Just think, their pitchers being lights out is less effective to the overall season number than your pitchers blowing up in .1 of an inning

[Ray27Ray52]

I went ahead and started both. They both pitched well and left with the lead. 3rd place opponent gained a point so this is going to go down to the wire it seems.