The more expensive the product, the cheaper the hits(Definitive)

[Carrbeaz]

Just taking a look at some of the completed listings for 2019 Definitive and I am shocked at how low the prices have been. An inscription auto from Nolan Ryan only brought $169 and it was a good one '7 No hitters'. You can look through completed listings and see many HoF players with some very cheap autos.

[Geoff G]

Just taking a look at some of the completed listings for 2019 Definitive and I am shocked at how low the prices have been. An inscription auto from Nolan Ryan only brought $169 and it was a good one '7 No hitters'. You can look through completed listings and see many HoF players with some very cheap autos.



Yup. I used to be all about the high end .. but not anymore .. I’m strictly flagship .. unless my kids want to crack some triple threads or five star .. but that’s it .. not worth it


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[griffan15]

I'm not really that surprised. Baseball doesn't know how to do high-end.

This is purely a gambler's product made for group breakers. No one that breaks these products really collects cards, it's all about the chase.

[Chrisyork33]

I hope when people buy high end they know it's referring to the price of the box and not the contents in said box.

[Josie27]

Yea each box has 1 of some low number for THAT product. But each product has that same Auto or Jersey or whatever. So it's not like there are only 5 Nolan Ryan Autograph cards in existence. There are probably 1000's of Nolan Ryan autographed cards out there.

What I have learned, if you don't buy/resell cards for a living then don't focus on the market value. Find cards you think are cool and collect. If you hit something crazy then awesome but the second you get pissed that "fill in the box" gave you crap then you donzo.

Why I believe it's pointless to care about market value. Say you pull a Michael Brantley #'d to 25. At first you think awesome, an All Star #'d to 25, has to be worth something. Yea, it's worth the cost to ship it maybe. That's about it. No ink, no pay.

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[MoreToppsPlease]

All the “high-end” stuff always look the same to me. Sometimes the high-end stuff looks like the hits in the “lower-end” stuff.

After a while it all starts to look the same[emoji848]

[nera20]

“High End” is not worth it, before group breaking it was decent but even now its really hard to get any value back sometimes even if you have first pick for the case hit and its worth $50 bucks. Flagship, Heritage, Topps Chrome are the best but if Topps Update is any indication of where prices are going then personal ripping is gonna flop and even group breaking could take a hit

[yankee98]

If you get an auto from a high-end "hits" product, you're really not beating any odds. All the cards are "hits."

If you hit a Nolan Ryan auto from say 2019 Topps or another mass-produced product, you are beating the odds.

[AwesomeBrian]

Lots of Ryan autos out there last few years... got a Thor/Ryan dual /25 from last year, it's last sale was around $85

[speedyjg13]

The problem is that these players sign for several years for every release. There are tons of Ryan autos, several with inscriptions. It's becoming to the point of "same auto, different background, different serial number"

[bigunitcards]

The problem is that these players sign for several years for every release. There are tons of Ryan autos, several with inscriptions. It's becoming to the point of "same auto, different background, different serial number"

I have ~95 different Randy Johnson autographs 2014-2018, and that doesn't include all the parallels and sticker autos out there since I only do on-cards and don't normally go after every parallel/color. They've just put out thousands of autographed cards over a 4/5 year span and they've destroyed all value, not that I don't mind paying $80 for a Museum Framed auto this year that I was buying for $300 in 2014. #ThanksTopps

[Dbacksbaseball]

Definitive had two really strong years for a high end product. This year it feels like everything else that is not Heritage, Flagship or Bowman.....overproduced trash. I saw a couple group breaks this week where the best card in a box was a $50-60 card.

[mfw13]

Just taking a look at some of the completed listings for 2019 Definitive and I am shocked at how low the prices have been. An inscription auto from Nolan Ryan only brought $169 and it was a good one '7 No hitters'. You can look through completed listings and see many HoF players with some very cheap autos.

That's because the auto market has become flooded over the last few years due to the fact that Topps releases so many products with similar auto checklists.

No offense, but there are probably 10,000+ Nolan Ryan autos out there by now....

[Cavaliercards]

All hits I like arent cheap

[jewcer2k5]

Normal autos of vets/HOF'ers just won't be more expensive in "better" products.

[MoreToppsPlease]

That's because the auto market has become flooded over the last few years due to the fact that Topps releases so many products with similar auto checklists.



No offense, but there are probably 10,000+ Nolan Ryan autos out there by now....



Yes, and they’ll continue to churn out even more in the years to come of course.

If a random sample of 25 Ryan autos were held at arms-length before a member of this forum, how many times could s/he correctly identify the set every card came from?

[psd2k10]

what would be really scary is if topps flips it on us and begins charging us “high end” price for flagship and chrome. And on the other hand, they begin charging less for stuff like definitive, triple threads and museum. Someone used the example of 2019 update prices. Off the bat?! Its crazy to kind of already see some of that happening.

[majestik101]

Wait a few years and buy up singles. It's the best strategy. Speaking of Nolan Ryan, I scored a /10 Nolan Ryan On Card Gold Ink auto from 2016 Tier One for only $65 shipped a few months back. Doesn't take long for prices to drop if you're patient enough. The worst time to buy is immediately after release when sellers are trying to squeeze out the last penny. At least that's my experience.

[rutgersjpm]

what would be really scary is if topps flips it on us and begins charging us “high end” price for flagship and chrome. And on the other hand, they begin charging less for stuff like definitive, triple threads and museum. Someone used the example of 2019 update prices. Off the bat?! Its crazy to kind of already see some of that happening.

It isn't Topps charging those prices on Update.

[Triple B]

Even $169 seems like too much for a BRAND NEW autograph from such an unnecessarily high end product. $169 for that card where I paid $80 for this a few months ago...

https://live.staticflickr.com/7895/32446233237_4bf166ec90_z.jpg

Too many nice choices out there for less to have to fall for "it came from a $1,000 box".

[MCyganik]

Definitely market fatigue. Sure there’s a handful of collectors for every HOFer who will want 10+ autos of their favorite player and a small market for those who don’t have a HOFer’s auto and want to chase it for the first time in every product. But after so many years how many of the same player can really be produced? At what point does the autograph market just completely dilute itself?

I like Jim Rice and happy to have a few of his autos in my PC. Doesn’t mean I’d be thrilled paying $150+ a box at this point and pulled his auto when I know he signs for basically every product at this point and can be had very cheaply.

$169 seems about right. It’s paying for the current base of a Ryan autograph with the perceived scarcity of an “expensive” product added in. But at the end of the day it’s a moneymaker for Topps to pay a few more cents on the material of the card and jack up the price 1000% and call it high-end. I think the singles market knows this and reflects it in the price sold in comparison with harder to find low to mid end products.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Wait a few years and buy up singles. It's the best strategy. Speaking of Nolan Ryan, I scored a /10 Nolan Ryan On Card Gold Ink auto from 2016 Tier One for only $65 shipped a few months back. Doesn't take long for prices to drop if you're patient enough. The worst time to buy is immediately after release when sellers are trying to squeeze out the last penny. At least that's my experience.



Definitely true.

[PKIPP]

AL Kaline is in literally every single set. Now don't get me wrong, I love me some Mr. Tiger.. But give the guy's hand a break would ya? Nice to see them have Alan Trammell start signing.. Though it's only a matter of time before he's in every set too....

[Raleigh504]

Wait a few years and buy up singles. It's the best strategy. Speaking of Nolan Ryan, I scored a /10 Nolan Ryan On Card Gold Ink auto from 2016 Tier One for only $65 shipped a few months back. Doesn't take long for prices to drop if you're patient enough. The worst time to buy is immediately after release when sellers are trying to squeeze out the last penny. At least that's my experience.

Agreed, I try to do that with players that I want autos of. The crazy thing to me is I will see two sold items, a /25 and a /100 of the same product and year. The /25 will sometimes go for cheaper than a /100 depending on the timing (even after a few weeks).

[Raleigh504]

What's also crazy that I see is people try to sell autographs on pictures (8x10 for example) for way more than a card numbered auto and more than if you just bought it directly from the athlete either via charity or signing events.

I actually tend to go for auto cards now cause of that. Plus you may be able to get a swatch of jersey/bat or something.

[tier1dc]

Lots of Ryan autos out there last few years... got a Thor/Ryan dual /25 from last year, it's last sale was around $85

Nolan Ryan signs for everyone, all the time.

He's signs for Topps, Panini, Leaf, just about anyone.

[Bowman1951]

Definitely market fatigue. Sure there’s a handful of collectors for every HOFer who will want 10+ autos of their favorite player and a small market for those who don’t have a HOFer’s auto and want to chase it for the first time in every product. But after so many years how many of the same player can really be produced? At what point does the autograph market just completely dilute itself?

I like Jim Rice and happy to have a few of his autos in my PC. Doesn’t mean I’d be thrilled paying $150+ a box at this point and pulled his auto when I know he signs for basically every product at this point and can be had very cheaply.

$169 seems about right. It’s paying for the current base of a Ryan autograph with the perceived scarcity of an “expensive” product added in. But at the end of the day it’s a moneymaker for Topps to pay a few more cents on the material of the card and jack up the price 1000% and call it high-end. I think the singles market knows this and reflects it in the price sold in comparison with harder to find low to mid end products.Great writeup. We need to meet up at the Woburn show one of these weeks!

[mouschi]

When I was supercollecting, I found that, for my guy at least, the brand didn't matter nearly as much as the content of the card itself. That wasn't the case in some extreme instances though, of course. That *might* be due to the fact that Canseco has significantly less premium relic material out there than current players, I dunno.

[LCM1223]

Even $169 seems like too much for a BRAND NEW autograph from such an unnecessarily high end product. $169 for that card where I paid $80 for this a few months ago...

Yea I was surprised it even got up to $169

[Topcat79]

I agree that there is an over saturation of autos on the market. Still, with that said, I do enjoy Definitive for its dual autos and attractive relics. Won’t ever buy a box, but I’m in for some singles.

[NickM]

Normal autos of vets/HOF'ers just won't be more expensive in "better" products.

Once you control for sticker vs. on-card.

[mfw13]

AL Kaline is in literally every single set. Now don't get me wrong, I love me some Mr. Tiger.. But give the guy's hand a break would ya? Nice to see them have Alan Trammell start signing.. Though it's only a matter of time before he's in every set too....

The underlying issue is that Topps the extent to which product value is dependent on autographs....that's why pretty much everyone you can think of is signing up the wazoo.

Only two top-tier HOFers that I can think of who aren't signing for Topps are Mike Schmidt and George Brett (Tom Seaver has stopped signing due to his poor health).

[Aquagolf70]

While I’m in agreement with auto saturation and the prices on the boxes forcing me to retail 90% of the time, I’d like to see Definitive continue. It was awesome the one year of football and I’ve enjoyed watching the case breaks this year. 5 or 6 hits per box don’t cover the cost of a hit break but there’s usually 1 or 2 great cards. Would I buy a box? No, but it is a very nice product.

[Americards]

High end products are really for the end buyer..
Original box buyer buys it and keeps it...
If there is a middle man in the equation, someone is gonna lose 98 out of 100 times...

[barry6124]

When the absolute best card in the entire run can’t cover a case, then it’s probably a losing proposition if you think you can flip. Some hella good deals on eBay though as people offload.


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