jasonadkins
02-17-2011, 02:46 PM
It seems like everyone that tries to make a Top Prospects list just basically guesses what they think Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect list is going to look like, not actually thinking for themself what their own list would look like. Since BA has the Harper and Trout 1-2 debate going on, nobody wants to blaspheme by not having them #1-2 on their list. Also, lists seem to play it safe with guys that have proven themself at AA and AAA with lower upside but lower risk ranking higher than prospects who have less experience at lower levels. I have no problem with that, but since I live in Vegas, I'm a gambler, so if a 17-year-old blows it up in a Rookie Level, I'm more impressed than most who want to play it safe with that prospects long term future. Without firther ado, my Top 10 Prospects with detailed explanations.
1. Bryce Harper: Sports Illustrated didn't put him on the cover as a 16-year-old for no reason, and Baseball America named him their High School National Player of the Year as a Sophomore (no other Junior had ever even won it). Since he was playing at CSN in Henderson (their stadium is a 20 minute drive from my house), I went to go check him out. As a 17-year-old he already looks like a Justin Morneau clone, and Morneau would have won his second MVP Award this year had he not gotten injured this year. It will be scary to see what Harper can do when he's 25, and that's still 7 years away.
2. Aroldis Chapman: A 6'4" Lefty who has hit 105 MPH? Alright, that was out of the bullpen, and maybe he sits at a paltry 101 MPH. I know the Reds have six capable starters right now, but lack one legit ace. Chapman is too valuable out of the pen like Nolan Ryan was too valuable out of the pen for the '67-68 Mets, why move him out of where he belongs, right? Come on Reds; let him sit in the 97 MPH range as a starter and watch him become the next Randy Johnson already. And now that he doesn't live in a third world country and signed for $30 Million, maybe he'll start eating some steak and Cheetos and put a little meat on his frame.
3. Jesus Montero: Even after a very slow start in AAA, Montero finished with a very solid .289 AVG and 21 HR's in 123 games as a 20-year-old, mostly as a catcher. Not quite as impressive as his 2009 combined .337 with 17 HR's in 92 games, but still very impressive. Scouting reports say he can't stay at Catcher defensively, and with Teixeira at First Base he would then be limited to only DH duties (if Montero stays a Yankee, that is). Well, if he doesn't have to squat for nine innings a game and can feel his knees and hamstrings, Montero will be an even better hitter, scary.
4. Wil Myers: Right now you're thinking "who is this moron and why is Myers so high and Trout not even on the list yet?" Fair enough, just hear me out. As a 19-year-old Myers made it to High A Carolina League (a bit of a pitcher's league) and hit .346 with a .966 OPS. Trout made it to High A California League (basically like playing every single game between Coors Field, Fenway, the new Yankee Stadium, and Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out) and hit .306 with an .821 OPS. Trout is 8 months younger than Myers and is more athletic, true, but Myers also had to catch most of those games which takes a lot out of you. Myers is no slouch athletically either, as he did go 12 for 18 in Stolen Bases last year, and the Royals now have moved him to Right Field for the 2011 season and beyond. Moving from Catcher sure helped former prospects Carlos Delgado, Justin Morneau, and Paul Konerko, watch it do wonders for Myers also.
5. Mike Trout: Alright, let me have it, I'm a moron for picking him this low. That is not an insult to Trout, I just think my top four will have bigger upside. If I had to pick the payer in all the minors who should win the most Gold Gloves, steal the most bases, and be the most likely to end his career with 3,000 hits, I would pick Trout.
6. Domonic Brown: We've been hearing scouts compare the athletic 6'5" Brown to Darryl Strawberry for a few years, but his numbers were never there. That changed in 2010, as Brown hit .318 with 15 HR's and 12 SB's in only 65 AA games, then hit .346 with a .951 OPS in 28 AAA games before being the Phillies batboy late in the season. The strikeouts scare the Hell out of me, but that speed and power from a 6'5" frame make all giddy inside.
7. Brandon Belt: Pssh, he was a fluke, right? Yeah, just like another prospect a decade ago that wasn't a high draft pick out of a Junior College and only played one year in the minors, so Baseball America only named him the #42 prospect in baseball in 2001. I haven't done research on what happened to that guy since, can someone do a google search on Albert Pujols for me and let me know? Belt hit .383 with a 1.121 OPS in High A, .337 with a 1.036 OPS in AA, and in 13 games in AAA his .229 AVG looks like an eye soar, but his .956 OPS there sure doesn't. Those Elite Extra AUTO's are surging now, wait til he makes the team out of Spring Training.
8. Gary Sanchez: Going out on a limb again, and no, I don't have mancrushes on Yankees catching prospects. Sanchez was a huge Bonus Baby as a 16-year-old, I think for $2.65 Million (correct me if I'm wrong), so there were already big expectations for that kind of bonus. As a 17-year-old catcher in the Gulf Coast League, Sanchez ripped .353 with a 1.016 OPS, that's just plain silly. While ever since he was signed there were articles saying that Montero could not stay behind the dish, I have never read one article stating that Sanchez cannot stay there.
9. Jeremy Hellickson: All I can say is very good, but unspectacular. Five straight seasons of a sub-3.00 ERA in the minors, but never quite downright dominant and wasn't young for the levels he was at. I see a second coming of Matt Garza, which is actually pretty good for a #2 starter.
10. Manny Machado: Was projected as the #3 talent in the draft before the season began, and held true to that billing. They say his glove is good enough to stick at Shortsop, and while I don't think he has A-Rod upside, he could put up Miguel Tejada type numbers, which were freakish for a Shortstop over a five year span. Not much time in the minors, but in 29 AB's in the New York Penn League he hit .346.
Just missed my cuts: Dustin Ackley, Julio Teheran, and Miguel Sano. If undrafted players were allowed on the list, I'd rank Gerrit Cole #8 behind Belt. Alright, grab your tomatoes and start pelting me boys...
1. Bryce Harper: Sports Illustrated didn't put him on the cover as a 16-year-old for no reason, and Baseball America named him their High School National Player of the Year as a Sophomore (no other Junior had ever even won it). Since he was playing at CSN in Henderson (their stadium is a 20 minute drive from my house), I went to go check him out. As a 17-year-old he already looks like a Justin Morneau clone, and Morneau would have won his second MVP Award this year had he not gotten injured this year. It will be scary to see what Harper can do when he's 25, and that's still 7 years away.
2. Aroldis Chapman: A 6'4" Lefty who has hit 105 MPH? Alright, that was out of the bullpen, and maybe he sits at a paltry 101 MPH. I know the Reds have six capable starters right now, but lack one legit ace. Chapman is too valuable out of the pen like Nolan Ryan was too valuable out of the pen for the '67-68 Mets, why move him out of where he belongs, right? Come on Reds; let him sit in the 97 MPH range as a starter and watch him become the next Randy Johnson already. And now that he doesn't live in a third world country and signed for $30 Million, maybe he'll start eating some steak and Cheetos and put a little meat on his frame.
3. Jesus Montero: Even after a very slow start in AAA, Montero finished with a very solid .289 AVG and 21 HR's in 123 games as a 20-year-old, mostly as a catcher. Not quite as impressive as his 2009 combined .337 with 17 HR's in 92 games, but still very impressive. Scouting reports say he can't stay at Catcher defensively, and with Teixeira at First Base he would then be limited to only DH duties (if Montero stays a Yankee, that is). Well, if he doesn't have to squat for nine innings a game and can feel his knees and hamstrings, Montero will be an even better hitter, scary.
4. Wil Myers: Right now you're thinking "who is this moron and why is Myers so high and Trout not even on the list yet?" Fair enough, just hear me out. As a 19-year-old Myers made it to High A Carolina League (a bit of a pitcher's league) and hit .346 with a .966 OPS. Trout made it to High A California League (basically like playing every single game between Coors Field, Fenway, the new Yankee Stadium, and Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out) and hit .306 with an .821 OPS. Trout is 8 months younger than Myers and is more athletic, true, but Myers also had to catch most of those games which takes a lot out of you. Myers is no slouch athletically either, as he did go 12 for 18 in Stolen Bases last year, and the Royals now have moved him to Right Field for the 2011 season and beyond. Moving from Catcher sure helped former prospects Carlos Delgado, Justin Morneau, and Paul Konerko, watch it do wonders for Myers also.
5. Mike Trout: Alright, let me have it, I'm a moron for picking him this low. That is not an insult to Trout, I just think my top four will have bigger upside. If I had to pick the payer in all the minors who should win the most Gold Gloves, steal the most bases, and be the most likely to end his career with 3,000 hits, I would pick Trout.
6. Domonic Brown: We've been hearing scouts compare the athletic 6'5" Brown to Darryl Strawberry for a few years, but his numbers were never there. That changed in 2010, as Brown hit .318 with 15 HR's and 12 SB's in only 65 AA games, then hit .346 with a .951 OPS in 28 AAA games before being the Phillies batboy late in the season. The strikeouts scare the Hell out of me, but that speed and power from a 6'5" frame make all giddy inside.
7. Brandon Belt: Pssh, he was a fluke, right? Yeah, just like another prospect a decade ago that wasn't a high draft pick out of a Junior College and only played one year in the minors, so Baseball America only named him the #42 prospect in baseball in 2001. I haven't done research on what happened to that guy since, can someone do a google search on Albert Pujols for me and let me know? Belt hit .383 with a 1.121 OPS in High A, .337 with a 1.036 OPS in AA, and in 13 games in AAA his .229 AVG looks like an eye soar, but his .956 OPS there sure doesn't. Those Elite Extra AUTO's are surging now, wait til he makes the team out of Spring Training.
8. Gary Sanchez: Going out on a limb again, and no, I don't have mancrushes on Yankees catching prospects. Sanchez was a huge Bonus Baby as a 16-year-old, I think for $2.65 Million (correct me if I'm wrong), so there were already big expectations for that kind of bonus. As a 17-year-old catcher in the Gulf Coast League, Sanchez ripped .353 with a 1.016 OPS, that's just plain silly. While ever since he was signed there were articles saying that Montero could not stay behind the dish, I have never read one article stating that Sanchez cannot stay there.
9. Jeremy Hellickson: All I can say is very good, but unspectacular. Five straight seasons of a sub-3.00 ERA in the minors, but never quite downright dominant and wasn't young for the levels he was at. I see a second coming of Matt Garza, which is actually pretty good for a #2 starter.
10. Manny Machado: Was projected as the #3 talent in the draft before the season began, and held true to that billing. They say his glove is good enough to stick at Shortsop, and while I don't think he has A-Rod upside, he could put up Miguel Tejada type numbers, which were freakish for a Shortstop over a five year span. Not much time in the minors, but in 29 AB's in the New York Penn League he hit .346.
Just missed my cuts: Dustin Ackley, Julio Teheran, and Miguel Sano. If undrafted players were allowed on the list, I'd rank Gerrit Cole #8 behind Belt. Alright, grab your tomatoes and start pelting me boys...