A serious conversation about running back value in the hobby

[hostilecarrot]

I’m making this post in light of Eagles RB Miles Sanders who recently began fetching Solid prices on EBay. In short, my question is: what’s the incentive to spend money on a rookie RB, or any RB for that matter?

Brian Westbrook autos can be purchased cheaper than Miles Sanders rookie autos. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, and many other “greats” have cards that are essentially worthless. Yet, somehow, the hobby has decided to throw thousands at Saquon who could easily be worth pennies on the dollar in a year.

Am I missing something? Imagine having spent money on Reggie Bush early in his career. Yikes!

[spacewrangler]

I’m making this post in light of Eagles RB Miles Sanders who recently began fetching Solid prices on EBay. In short, my question is: what’s the incentive to spend money on a rookie RB, or any RB for that matter?

Brian Westbrook autos can be purchased cheaper than Miles Sanders rookie autos. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, and many other “greats” have cards that are essentially worthless. Yet, somehow, the hobby has decided to throw thousands at Saquon who could easily be worth pennies on the dollar in a year.

Am I missing something? Imagine having spent money on Reggie Bush early in his career. Yikes!

I think Saquon's prices are more of a New York thing, but he did do ridiculously well for a rookie.

[hostilecarrot]

I think Saquon's prices are more of a New York thing, but he did do ridiculously well for a rookie.

Not denying he’s good. Miles Sanders is a beast and he doesn’t compare to Saquon.

I just literally cannot imagine a scenario 3, 5, 10, or 20 years from now that justifies the prices people pay for Saquon rookie cards.

[ucLAkers]

I learned that lesson hard after Jamaal Charles collapse...all the RB class cards are only good on time of release regardless of product. Then wait 2 years and snag it for $5.

[spacewrangler]

Not denying he’s good. Miles Sanders is a beast and he doesn’t compare to Saquon.

I just literally cannot imagine a scenario 3, 5, 10, or 20 years from now that justifies the prices people pay for Saquon rookie cards.

I completely agree, I'm a huge Panthers fan but I sold my CMC auto's at the start of the season

[NickM]

Not denying he’s good. Miles Sanders is a beast and he doesn’t compare to Saquon.

I just literally cannot imagine a scenario 3, 5, 10, or 20 years from now that justifies the prices people pay for Saquon rookie cards.

I can, but it requires an Emmitt-like career, including multiple rings.

[Seahawks fan]

Has any modern rb held value? There is your answer.

[Mahnz]

If you are looking for long-term value then only QB has any chance for longevity.

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[49erRCCollector]

Here's the problem: of active rushers you have...

Gore (14,912) and A.P. (13,380) both of whom I think make the hall. both of whom also are a million years old.

then Shady (10,764) who i don't think is in the HOF discussion yet.

...

...

Then Ingram (6,264), Lamar Miller (5,864), Le'Veon (5,499), Doug Martin (5,356) None of which have HOF on them...

Who's the heir to the throne? and average QBs are breaking records left and right...

[ninjacookies]

Not even AP held value.


The best investment strategy with rb's:

Buy prior or during their rookie season and wait for this first initial spike---> sell and don't look back or wonder if you could have made more.


Then wait another 7-8 years down the road (assuming they're still active and playing well) and buy when they've solidified themselves as HOFers, then await the post retirement bump.

[Callmerookies]

Sigh...

[Callmerookies]

Maybe saquon will transition to qb if jones don't work out... Lol

[Siberian13]

Not even AP held value.


The best investment strategy with rb's:

Buy prior or during their rookie season and wait for this first initial spike---> sell and don't look back or wonder if you could have made more.


Then wait another 7-8 years down the road (assuming they're still active and playing well) and buy when they've solidified themselves as HOFers, then await the post retirement bump.

Agreed.

RB and most any other position not a QB are pointless in the hobby for value. But for collecting for fun, go for it.

[ninjacookies]

Agreed.

RB and most any other position not a QB are pointless in the hobby for value. But for collecting for fun, go for it.

Yes sir. It's crazy how bad rb's don't hold value even if they live up to the hype. It's only once nostalgia kicks in 10-20 years later that you see the rise (LT, Barry, Emmitt, Sweetness, on and on)

[twisty571]

If your collecting RB's you more than likely aren't looking for a return of a profit. No matter what RB it is. Barkely prices will be cheaper.

[deemsterz33]

I passed on a PSA 9 1994 Finest Barry Sanders Refractor for $12 a few years ago. Now a $175 card.

[Brobocop]

I remember just a few years ago Eddie Lacy NT RPAs going for hundreds of dollars. Wonder what they’re worth now? Crazy how fast RB prices can go up and right back down.

[IronMonkey415]

For Running Back cards you MUST sell it ASAP when it is hot.
You only hold on to QB cards.

[taylor5877]

Sanders and Emmitt Smith cards are CHEAP...granted junk wax, but still. Those 2 held right up with QB's during the 90's. From a collecting standpoint, their RC's hold a special place in my collection.

We always had football games on after Thanksgiving, and watched those 2 for years. Sanders had some of the most impressive runs for nothing in the history of the NFL, and you only got to see those live.

But for as bad as RB's and to some extent receivers, defensive players are worse IMO. Even being surefire HOFers and super bowl mvp's doesn't help their stock (call me bitter, but Miller and Watt are my 2 favorite "hits" when I go through 2011 stuff).

[Grid]

I’m making this post in light of Eagles RB Miles Sanders who recently began fetching Solid prices on EBay. In short, my question is: what’s the incentive to spend money on a rookie RB, or any RB for that matter?

Brian Westbrook autos can be purchased cheaper than Miles Sanders rookie autos. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, and many other “greats” have cards that are essentially worthless. Yet, somehow, the hobby has decided to throw thousands at Saquon who could easily be worth pennies on the dollar in a year.

Am I missing something? Imagine having spent money on Reggie Bush early in his career. Yikes!

Yes, you are missing something.

Everyone you named, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, never elevated to "great" status.

None of those guys will sniff the hall of fame. Only Lewis won a super bowl, but he also went to prison which kills his values.

Its hard to compare rookie values of the true great modern RB's Barry Sanders & Emmitt Smith being the gold standard. Since they didnt have limited print, signed patch cards that came in $1,000 boxes.

If they did, what would an Emmitt Immaculate auto patch signed RC numbered to 25 sell for? More than what you are seeing for Miles Sanders.

You say Brian Westbrook doesnt sell as well as Sanders, but the Sanders cards are those with the bells and whistles.

The entire hobby is about the next best thing. Most of these Eagles have won a Super Bowl. Miles Sanders, who did look good, might be a break out cog on a machine that could rack up more SB wins. And that will lift his cards even higher.

And Im not talking about his Score base RCs here. But the stuff people are paying up for now, the "good" stuff, should go up if that happens. Especially for Saquon playing under the bright lights in NY. Big Market - Big Money.

Imagine Mahomes prices, if he was the Cowboys QB.

[clsports]

I only collect backup place kickers and long snappers. I am hoping that someday the hobby will take notice.

But, yeah after Barry and Emmitt, the RB's are tough to collect as an investment.

[hostilecarrot]

Yes, you are missing something.

Everyone you named, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, never elevated to "great" status.

None of those guys will sniff the hall of fame. Only Lewis won a super bowl, but he also went to prison which kills his values.

Its hard to compare rookie values of the true great modern RB's Barry Sanders & Emmitt Smith being the gold standard. Since they didnt have limited print, signed patch cards that came in $1,000 boxes.

If they did, what would an Emmitt Immaculate auto patch signed RC numbered to 25 sell for? More than what you are seeing for Miles Sanders.

You say Brian Westbrook doesnt sell as well as Sanders, but the Sanders cards are those with the bells and whistles.

The entire hobby is about the next best thing. Most of these Eagles have won a Super Bowl. Miles Sanders, who did look good, might be a break out cog on a machine that could rack up more SB wins. And that will lift his cards even higher.

And Im not talking about his Score base RCs here. But the stuff people are paying up for now, the "good" stuff, should go up if that happens. Especially for Saquon playing under the bright lights in NY. Big Market - Big Money.

Imagine Mahomes prices, if he was the Cowboys QB.

That was a very long winded way of not offering anything of value. Thanks for pointing out a Emmit Smith RPA would probably sell for more than a Miles Sanders RPA...? :doh:

[heatdawg]

I hope before I die that I get to see a Barry Sanders 2.0

We all must dream.

[sethc1020]

In short no incentive, don't do it, never!

[TheFrenzy]

Barry Sanders cards are cheap? When it comes chasing 90s cards with actual scarcity, Sanders is usually the hardest to find and the most expensive when you do. Him and Favre.

[Grid]

That was a very long winded way of not offering anything of value. Thanks for pointing out a Emmit Smith RPA would probably sell for more than a Miles Sanders RPA...? :doh:

No value?

If I helped answer your question, why a promising running back's autographed rookie cards sell for more than Brian Westbrook's, who has been signing cards for the past 15 years, then I did my job.

Brian Westbrook, zero Super Bowls, 2 Pro Bowls, #76 on the all time rushing list and wont get into the Hall of Fame. His cards values are what they are and they wont change.

Miles Sanders, how many super bowls will he win? How many Pro Bowls will he go to? How high will he finish on the all time rushing list? Will he go to the Hall of Fame?

All of the what-ifs are driving prices, I guess you never collected cards before.

Your thread says it was a serious conversation. Yet to want to rip me because your premise is flawed?

[Scottish Punk]

Yes sir. It's crazy how bad rb's don't hold value even if they live up to the hype. It's only once nostalgia kicks in 10-20 years later that you see the rise (LT, Barry, Emmitt, Sweetness, on and on)

Agreed, add Jim Brown and you got the top five all time. The only others who value might 'stick" is what Campbell, Sayers, Faulk.

So basically you need to be in the top ten of all time RBs to hold up. That is a very lofty deal. I don't know of anybody currently playing or recently retired would bump that list. AP is the closest, but he has is own past transgressions.

I think Barkley has the talent to do it, but he has a long way to go obviously. Think about how fast Gurley stuff must be tanking right now. He doesn't look the same anymore.

[ILOVEBEER]

I remember just a few years ago Eddie Lacy NT RPAs going for hundreds of dollars. Wonder what they’re worth now? Crazy how fast RB prices can go up and right back down.

Lacy is who I thought of. David Johnson as well but Lacy was on the Packers and he looked like a beast running on the field. Didn't Atlanta have a guy a few years ago?

The game is obviously pass heavy. Plus it seems like these guys get hurt a lot compared to other players.

[Callmerookies]

Lacy is who I thought of. David Johnson as well but Lacy was on the Packers and he looked like a beast running on the field. Didn't Atlanta have a guy a few years ago?

The game is obviously pass heavy. Plus it seems like these guys get hurt a lot compared to other players.

They nice but saquon nasty there a big difference

[Noles939913]

Lacy is who I thought of. David Johnson as well but Lacy was on the Packers and he looked like a beast running on the field. Didn't Atlanta have a guy a few years ago?

The game is obviously pass heavy. Plus it seems like these guys get hurt a lot compared to other players.

Devonta Freeman? Yeah he’s still playing and had a pretty good game last week but even as a 2 time Pro Bowler his cards were never worth much.

[danimal875]

Saquon is different than 99% of RBs I think, his highlight reels are ridiculous, he's like Barry with a little more size. He makes defenders look absolutely foolish. As long as he doesn't get some serious injury, those highlight loops will always create more collectors of him. Most HOF Running Backs are just Yardage accumulators, AP was fun to watch and extremely fast, but I was never blown away by his skill set, plus the weird child abuse thing was a bad look.

[gmoney328]

I think it's probably safe to say that Emmitt's yardage record will NEVER be broken.

[RogerGodahell]

I hope before I die that I get to see a Barry Sanders 2.0

We all must dream.

It's possible. I never thought i'd see another player like Larry Bird. It took 25 years but then came along Luka.

[Dallas Cowboys]

Like others have said Running Backs just don't hold their value like quarterbacks do in this hobby. I don't think getting elected to the HOF gives them that much of a bump.
As far as Barry and Emmitt:
Two very popular running backs from the junk wax/90's era of collecting. I would wager to bet the majority of card collectors today were kids from that era. That would explain a decent amount of demand for them. And of course Emmitt played for the Cowboys so that gives him a bump.

Here's a breakdown of their cards:

1. Rookie cards: Unfortunately they both played in the junk wax or overproduction era. So no rare RPA's. Plenty of raw and graded cards available.

2. Rare 90's inserts: There is a lot of demand for both of these guys' inserts. I think they will keep going up for a time. As long as junk wax kids keep collecting. Once we all start dying off or selling our collections they will go back down in price.

3. Autograph cards: Here's is something I don't see collectors talking about. Emmitt and Barry have a lot of pack pulled autograph cards out there. In fact if you have money to burn you can buy all you want on Ebay right now. I got back into collecting almost 9 years ago. I have seen a gradual decline in prices for those guy's autograph cards. In fact last year as I started HOF auto collecting I picked up a nice on card /5 auto of Barry for $105.00. I think the only thing that keeps their prices over $100 now is their popularity and demand. I saw a Topps Five Star Emmitt recently go for $125.00. That would have been a $200 to $300 dollar card 10 years ago. Panini keeps pumping out thier autos. Imagine what 10, 15, 20 more years of them signing cards is going to do to prices.

[ILOVEBEER]

Saquon is different than 99% of RBs I think, his highlight reels are ridiculous, he's like Barry with a little more size. He makes defenders look absolutely foolish. As long as he doesn't get some serious injury, those highlight loops will always create more collectors of him. Most HOF Running Backs are just Yardage accumulators, AP was fun to watch and extremely fast, but I was never blown away by his skill set, plus the weird child abuse thing was a bad look.

Well, Saquon is already injured. It's apparently not that major, but he isn't playing so that doesn't help. Like just about anyone else in football. You're probably wise to sell early while hype is still there.

[brewtown107]

Tell me about it. My biggest running back plays have been big money losers.

I was the fool who paid a thousand dollars for the Reggie Bush Topps Chrome Auto Blue #01/50 back in 2006. It arrived with a dinged corner, but I was still excited. Still have that bad boy. I got caught up in the hype over that year's draft class, and bought a case of Topps Chrome plus a ton of singles. Anybody searching for sticker rookie autos of Maurice Jones Drew, Laurence Maroney, or Smokin' Jay Cutler?

Also around that time, I bought two 1998 Topps Stars Walter Payton autos, one a PSA 9 and another a BGS 9.5, and last I looked I can find these all day long on eBay for less than I paid then.

If only I'd been smart enough to foresee (or lucky enough to guess) that the correct answer for long term value was actually PMGs and other rare inserts. But I still enjoy my Payton autos at least. It's not all about value appreciation.

[majestik101]

I remember a time when Doug Martin sold for boo-koo $$$$

6 years later and he's out of the league.

How about that Blast from the Past, Cadillac Williams? Hot for a minute, his cards were selling for absurd amounts too and then suddenly

https://media.giphy.com/media/mGoMI5XoBu5OM/giphy.gif



good times


How does that saying go? "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

[ThoseBackPages]

i dont believe Emmitts 90 Score has ever been "cheap"

[IronMonkey415]

Remember when Devonte Freeman was a thing?

What happen to him? It was that injury... huh?

[Mahnz]

Remember when Devonte Freeman was a thing?

What happen to him? It was that injury... huh?Freeman has had concussion issues and hasn't been as explosive as with Shanahan as OC( the whole team hasn't). Unfortunately, Atlanta has had o-line issues as well. Had a nice game last week against the colts so things are looking up a little. His running style and small frame makes me worried for concussions though.

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[armoursave]

Could Kamara break the mold?

[IronMonkey415]

Yea Kamara could eat like Elliot, if Elliot still does that soup eating TD celebration.

I don't know.... I've been waiting for months to use that GIF.

https://s0.gifyu.com/images/poison-soup.gif (https://gifyu.com/image/kx9P)

[jecards]

Saquon is different than 99% of RBs I think, his highlight reels are ridiculous, he's like Barry with a little more size. He makes defenders look absolutely foolish. As long as he doesn't get some serious injury, those highlight loops will always create more collectors of him. Most HOF Running Backs are just Yardage accumulators, AP was fun to watch and extremely fast, but I was never blown away by his skill set, plus the weird child abuse thing was a bad look.

I agree. Saquon is also more marketable and mainstream, he's already in few commercials, which I think will help his cards. I'm pretty sure the other RBs listed (Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, Lacy) never really had much success outside football.

[ninjacookies]

Saquon definitely has the best chance out of all the current rb's to be 'that' guy of this generation. Injuries are his only real obstacle. He's put up stats despite being in one of the most dysfunctional systems, so things can only get better for him if he can stay upright. But that's a huge hurdle for any bellcow back these days, it seems (outside of Zeke,).