Best and Worst players so far this season

[jcardstore]

If you're just coming here to say something about advanced metrics being stupid or how 538 predicted the election wrong just turn around and walk out now.

538 recently came up with a new player rating RAPTOR. Most of the top20 is consistent with what you'd think.

Harden and LeBron are almost neck and neck for the top2 followed by Dame/Luka/Mitchell to round out the top 5.

The 1st surprises come at 12 and 16 with Will Barton and Tristan Thompson. Middle of the road guys who their whole career have started off great this season so far.

By far the worst player in the NBA so far is Eric Gordon which isn't surprising considering how terrible he's looked so far. A little behind him is Cam Reddish which doesn't really surprise me much either. His offensive rating is horrific and his defensive rating is slightly below average.

The bottom of the league isn't really super surprising, mostly rookies on bad teams.

Demar Derozan being the 8th worst player is really surprising to me.

This years rookies have been really bad. Only 2 have a positive rating (Kendrick Nunn / Brandon Clarke). Clarke has the best offensive rating and Darius Bazely has the best defensive rating. Reddish is far and away the worst offensively and Rui is the worst defensively by a small margin

You can find the entire list here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

[Manmadeofsteel]

One thing to consider is developmental and role players. Numbers are going to be skewed to the efficiency and usage stats that a team chooses to utilize them in their system.

Not all these players will focus on all assets of their game, so a player's defensive rating might be lower if they are or working on being a distributor, volume shooter, or not a team's first or second option, which can easily impact numbers.

[anusinha]

Interesting to see Mitchell so high. With Tatum doing better on a top team, maybe 2017 wax isnt dead.

[yiguiri2002]

Love to see new stuff coming out...but no offense, if Mo Wagner and Will Barton are in your Top 6, this might still be a work in progress

[KhalDrogo]

Interesting metric. I had to look up who Aron Baynes was.

[Bobbyplaza133]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/21I1WOUDnct4EmSNa6/giphy.gif

[jcardstore]

Love to see new stuff coming out...but no offense, if Mo Wagner and Will Barton are in your Top 6, this might still be a work in progress

Mo Wagner somehow has the highest defensive rating in the league according to this lol.

Obviously that seems silly but fwiw he's having a super underrated season. 63% from the floor and 48% from 3. 73% TS nbd haha

His on-off ratings are insane too. According to bball ref he's +27 on/off this season.

[CoolG]

Interesting to see Mitchell so high. With Tatum doing better on a top team, maybe 2017 wax isnt dead.

Most 2017-18 hobby is up over the past 4-6 weeks:)!
both wholesale and retail

[GeechQuest]

As a league pass subscribe I can vouch for Mo Wagner. Dude has been the difference maker as to why the Wizards aren't bottom barreling it right now.

Same can be said for Devonte' Graham on the Hornets. Just playing unreal early season and way above projections.

Here's the Top-20 based on WAR:

James Harden
LeBron James
Damian Lillard
Luka Doncic
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jimmy Butler
Rudy Gobert
Anthony Davis
Kemba Walker
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Will Barton
Montrezl Harrell
Devonte' Graham
Kawhi Leonard
Tristan Thompson
Jonathan Isaac
Paul Millsap
Bam Adebayo
Kyle Lowry

This list is pretty solid honestly. I know when you see guys like Will Barton, Jonathan Isaac, Tristan Thompson, and Devonte' Graham on the list it can make you scratch your head, but these dudes are playing REALLY well and above expectations. More importantly, they're playing MEANINGFUL basketball.

[jcardstore]

As a league pass subscribe I can vouch for Mo Wagner. Dude has been the difference maker as to why the Wizards aren't bottom barreling it right now.

Same can be said for Devonte' Graham on the Hornets. Just playing unreal early season and way above projections.

Here's the Top-20 based on WAR:

James Harden
LeBron James
Damian Lillard
Luka Doncic
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jimmy Butler
Rudy Gobert
Anthony Davis
Kemba Walker
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Will Barton
Montrezl Harrell
Devonte' Graham
Kawhi Leonard
Tristan Thompson
Jonathan Isaac
Paul Millsap
Bam Adebayo
Kyle Lowry

This list is pretty solid honestly. I know when you see guys like Will Barton, Jonathan Isaac, Tristan Thompson, and Devonte' Graham on the list it can make you scratch your head, but these dudes are playing REALLY well and above expectations. More importantly, they're playing MEANINGFUL basketball.

Jon Isaac is absolutely incredible defensively. If he keeps it up he'll absolutely be in the DPOY race

[yiguiri2002]

Mo Wagner somehow has the highest defensive rating in the league according to this lol.

Obviously that seems silly but fwiw he's having a super underrated season. 63% from the floor and 48% from 3. 73% TS nbd haha

His on-off ratings are insane too. According to bball ref he's +27 on/off this season.

As a league pass subscribe I can vouch for Mo Wagner. Dude has been the difference maker as to why the Wizards aren't bottom barreling it right now.

Same can be said for Devonte' Graham on the Hornets. Just playing unreal early season and way above projections.

Here's the Top-20 based on WAR:

James Harden
LeBron James
Damian Lillard
Luka Doncic
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jimmy Butler
Rudy Gobert
Anthony Davis
Kemba Walker
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Will Barton
Montrezl Harrell
Devonte' Graham
Kawhi Leonard
Tristan Thompson
Jonathan Isaac
Paul Millsap
Bam Adebayo
Kyle Lowry

This list is pretty solid honestly. I know when you see guys like Will Barton, Jonathan Isaac, Tristan Thompson, and Devonte' Graham on the list it can make you scratch your head, but these dudes are playing REALLY well and above expectations. More importantly, they're playing MEANINGFUL basketball.

I haven't seen a lot of Mo Wagner but I've read enough to know he's legit. Same with Barton, Isaac, Adebayo and Graham. They are definitively above average players with an outside shot at a future All-Star berth.

But to put both Barton and Wagner ahead of Giannis or Lillard in the Box Score portion of the metric? I feel like there might be some tweaks still to be made, specially in the defensive side.

[ljandkg]

Others who have started the season great are Kelly Oubre, Aron Baynes in Phoenix. JJJ has been very up and down in Memphis.

[mindcycle]

I know people laugh seeing Will Baton on the list, but that dude has been absolutely balling this year. He looks like he did back before his injury last season, possibly even better tbh. Doesn't surprise me seeing him on this list but I also watch pretty much every Nuggets game.. :)

[Manmadeofsteel]

Others who have started the season great are Kelly Oubre, Aron Baynes in Phoenix. JJJ has been very up and down in Memphis.

Again offensively perhaps, but his role on a young team like Memphis is to establish his defensive game BEFORE he works on totally contributing on the offensive end.

It is interesting to note how numbers can be altered after one portion of the season or just one season, see Devonte' Graham pre-season rankings here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-projections/devonte-graham/

His ratings show tendencies to shoot the three-ball, but lean on other numbers to show what was thought to be poor projected performance especially this season and in the future.

[spurs50fan]

Interesting metric. I had to look up who Aron Baynes was.

Another one that got away :confused:

[alfreybrett2]

I know people laugh seeing Will Baton on the list, but that dude has been absolutely balling this year. He looks like he did back before his injury last season, possibly even better tbh. Doesn't surprise me seeing him on this list but I also watch pretty much every Nuggets game.. :)Agreed! His defense has leveled up as well!

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[gowizards0]

Interesting to see Mitchell so high. With Tatum doing better on a top team, maybe 2017 wax isnt dead.

Why are people out on the 2017 class so quick?

[ThoseBackPages]

Luka
Bron

[RogerGodahell]

Mo Wagner is the one who makes goofy faces that someone here wanted to punch in the face. I don't know much about his playing ability but i have seen him make some goofy faces. :)

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49086309802_cbc79a359d_o.gif

[ninjacookies]

https://media.giphy.com/media/l0IyogeaNBswBTFlK/giphy.gif

Also; shots out to Dame Dolla. Always criminally overlooked in the hobby and irl.

[maxcards]

Jonathan Isaac makes the top 20. Is his potential more AK47 or Giannis?

Has all the tools imo.

[GeechQuest]

I haven't seen a lot of Mo Wagner but I've read enough to know he's legit. Same with Barton, Isaac, Adebayo and Graham. They are definitively above average players with an outside shot at a future All-Star berth.

But to put both Barton and Wagner ahead of Giannis or Lillard in the Box Score portion of the metric? I feel like there might be some tweaks still to be made, specially in the defensive side.

Wagner will drop because it's +/- oriented and he was getting a boost from that Wiz bench being a juggernaut when IT4 was on it putting up 15+ a night. It's also why guys like Montrez are rated so highly. Top bench in the league (thanks 6th man like Lou Will) but playing solid defense.

That said, both Wagner and Harrell play more positive team-winning basketball than the majority of dudes in the NBA, so it fits.

[Justin7]

Interesting to see Lillard so high and Trae so low. They are both "known" for bad defense and excellent offense but Lillard's got some seperation so far.

This list bodes well for the Heat who now not only have Jimmy Butler but a rising star in Bam Adebayo, dude is scary. I am looking out for them as potential contenders in the east in the next 1-3 years.

[Jopeal]

I'm surprised the Lakers traded for Anthony Davis considering all they needed to do to compete for a championship was give Mo Wagner more minutes.

At least I can use this metric to back my claim that Delon Wright is a bright spot for the Mavs, so that's a Silver Lining.

[dasiegel]

Jonathan Isaac in the mix, gotta love the list!

[clipperboy24]

Wagner will drop because it's +/- oriented and he was getting a boost from that Wiz bench being a juggernaut when IT4 was on it putting up 15+ a night. It's also why guys like Montrez are rated so highly. Top bench in the league (thanks 6th man like Lou Will) but playing solid defense.

That said, both Wagner and Harrell play more positive team-winning basketball than the majority of dudes in the NBA, so it fits.

It’s funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing about Harrell. His defense is very mediocre especially team wise, but he gets the benefit of an efficient bench lineup and high offensive production. If you really look at the numbers overall, I don’t think this system is very good especially from a defensive standpoint when you have Curry and Harden as defensive positives, but I’d say they really aren’t especially a few years ago. All these advanced stats try to compare and benchmark but they don’t seem to have come up with as good of formulas as in baseball. Which makes sense, since baseball was far earlier in the advanced metrics and applied statistics fields.

[GeechQuest]

It’s funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing about Harrell. His defense is very mediocre especially team wise, but he gets the benefit of an efficient bench lineup and high offensive production. If you really look at the numbers overall, I don’t think this system is very good especially from a defensive standpoint when you have Curry and Harden as defensive positives, but I’d say they really aren’t especially a few years ago. All these advanced stats try to compare and benchmark but they don’t seem to have come up with as good of formulas as in baseball. Which makes sense, since baseball was far earlier in the advanced metrics and applied statistics fields.

Yeah, but honestly most advanced metrics in basketball spit out the top dudes in the league anyway.

The eye test says Harden and Lebron are an entire plataeu above the rest of the league currently, and these advanced stats show the same.

I'm not so concerned about the guys outside of the Top-5 anyway. Those dudes deserve respect, but none are leading a team solo. Great complimentary pieces though and it's nice to see guys get recognized for their play even if it doesn't lead to that superstar status.

Hell, like ninja pointed out you can be a superstar (Lillard and Harden) and still not get recognized for that.

[Jopeal]

Yeah, but honestly most advanced metrics in basketball spit out the top dudes in the league anyway.

The eye test says Harden and Lebron are an entire plataeu above the rest of the league currently, and these advanced stats show the same.

I'm not so concerned about the guys outside of the Top-5 anyway. Those dudes deserve respect, but none are leading a team solo. Great complimentary pieces though and it's nice to see guys get recognized for their play even if it doesn't lead to that superstar status.

Hell, like ninja pointed out you can be a superstar (Lillard and Harden) and still not get recognized for that.

Most advanced metrics have the best players atop the list, but so do simplistic calculations like fantasy points. I think using an all-encompassing number to represent a players value is near-impossible in a sport this dynamic.

[DajuanWagner]

It’s funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing about Harrell. His defense is very mediocre especially team wise, but he gets the benefit of an efficient bench lineup and high offensive production. If you really look at the numbers overall, I don’t think this system is very good especially from a defensive standpoint when you have Curry and Harden as defensive positives, but I’d say they really aren’t especially a few years ago. All these advanced stats try to compare and benchmark but they don’t seem to have come up with as good of formulas as in baseball. Which makes sense, since baseball was far earlier in the advanced metrics and applied statistics fields.



Can you PM me? I have sent you a PM and you haven't responded yet? Maybe it went to your spam by mistake...…….

[bberns]

Keep in mind that these numbers are describing what happened the first few weeks of the season. It would be odd if there weren't a few average to mediocre players near the top given the small sample size. This is what happens in baseball every year with advanced metrics as well.

Will Barton had an awesome start to the season. He might keep it up, but he probably won't. Just like the guy hitting .420 at the end of April doesn't win the batting title.

[dks]

Hardens stats are greatly effected by his Minutes? 3rd most minutes of all of the players. Luka is only at 419. Imagine where he would be at if he played an additional 2-3 minutes per game.

[clipperboy24]

Most advanced metrics have the best players atop the list, but so do simplistic calculations like fantasy points. I think using an all-encompassing number to represent a players value is near-impossible in a sport this dynamic.

Yes, exactly! Even the most basic systems or metric are able to replicate the very top tier. That’s never the value of these type of metrics imo, it’s the 2nd, 3rd or 4th tier and finding players that are undervalued in relationship to perception. If the system can do that then I don’t know why it would be considered very valuable.

[Jopeal]

Yes, exactly! Even the most basic systems or metric are able to replicate the very top tier. That’s never the value of these type of metrics imo, it’s the 2nd, 3rd or 4th tier and finding players that are undervalued in relationship to perception. If the system can do that then I don’t know why it would be considered very valuable.

At times I think we’ve come full circle and the old fashioned “eye test” seems to still take precedent over flawed analytics systems.

[jcardstore]

At times I think we’ve come full circle and the old fashioned “eye test” seems to still take precedent over flawed analytics systems.

The eye test is notoriously bad at evaluating players who are inconsistent because you only want to remember the highlights and good games... just human nature. That's why we need advanced metrics to help us identify what our eyes and brains don't want to

[Soleternity]

I haven't seen a lot of Mo Wagner but I've read enough to know he's legit. Same with Barton, Isaac, Adebayo and Graham. They are definitively above average players with an outside shot at a future All-Star berth.

But to put both Barton and Wagner ahead of Giannis or Lillard in the Box Score portion of the metric? I feel like there might be some tweaks still to be made, specially in the defensive side.

Ditto. Also: Jimmy Butler is currently second in "Total Raptor."

[brettmik59]

It’s funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing about Harrell. His defense is very mediocre especially team wise, but he gets the benefit of an efficient bench lineup and high offensive production. If you really look at the numbers overall, I don’t think this system is very good especially from a defensive standpoint when you have Curry and Harden as defensive positives, but I’d say they really aren’t especially a few years ago. All these advanced stats try to compare and benchmark but they don’t seem to have come up with as good of formulas as in baseball. Which makes sense, since baseball was far earlier in the advanced metrics and applied statistics fields.

Baseball is a great sport for analytics as almost every play is a binary outcome - ball or strike, hit or out, make a play or make an error. Basketball has so many nuance it's impossible to summarize. Did a guy collapse to help on D to force a pass and a tough shot at the end of the shot clock? That's good defense. Maybe a guy was glued to his assignment, thereby forcing the ball away from that player ultimately resulting in a miss. How does that stuff appear in a statistic? On offense, a guy might miss a contested shot at the end of a shot clock, when he had no other choice but to put it up. That shouldn't count against them. You can go on and on.

[MyckKabongo]

1. Small Sample Size

2. Basketball advanced analytics should be used with caution. There is really no single catch all that works as well as WAR in baseball.

A crude but effective approach is to look at how a player rates across several of these catch all metrics. This usually gives a pretty good picture.

3. Roles matter. Many avanced metrics love defensive big men that only shoot from very short range. Of course those guys cant initiate any offense at all and are frequently slow-footed guts that can easily be targeted for mismatches come playoff time. It's also impossible to ever fully isolate one player from the context of his teammates contributions.

4. The eye test and scouting are as important than ever but you need to know how to do them in an analytically informed way.

[Justin7]

There are a lot of players with offensive gravity who will make a play that draws two defenders to them but they’ll pass it out of the double, the other guy will swing it to the open corner shooter and that player gets credit for the assist even though the first player created the play.

That’s an obvious example. There are more complicated situations where this occur. Players like curry and Luka have this type of gravity on the perimeter that sets off a different chain of reactions. I do take stats and advanced stats into account when I analyze players but there’s a lot of great resources out there on looking past box scores and seeing through statistical noise.

[ninjacookies]

The two aren't mutually exclusive and must be combined to form a clearer picture. As jcard said, oftentimes we all fall victim to our own bias or prejudice when evaluating players. Analytics helps to quell those notions, or at the very least dispell glaringly bad takes when they're presented.

No form of advanced analytics will ever be perfect, and the picture gets muddy when you start analyzing the 2nd,3rd, and 4th tiers of league talent. We've seen Lebron, Dame, and Harden carry less than stellar surrounding talent over the course of multiple seasons. Giannis is right there. A lot of these lower tier players are off to hot starts, and will inevitably experience a sharp pullback in output. Many aren't even focal points of their team or offense and simply extremely good complimentary pieces that provide significant sparks to their squads. It's tough to quantify, because if you place them in a centerpiece franchise role, they'd likely fall flat on their face. But they fill a very important void and niche, and do it well.

[Justin7]

The two aren't mutually exclusive and must be combined to form a clearer picture. As jcard said, oftentimes we all fall victim to our own bias or prejudice when evaluating players. Analytics helps to quell those notions, or at the very least dispell glaringly bad takes when they're presented.

No form of advanced analytics will ever be perfect, and the picture gets muddy when you start analyzing the 2nd,3rd, and 4th tiers of league talent. We've seen Lebron, Dame, and Harden carry less than stellar surrounding talent over the course of multiple seasons. Giannis is right there. A lot of these lower tier players are off to hot starts, and will inevitably experience a sharp pullback in output. Many aren't even focal points of their team or offense and simply extremely good complimentary pieces that provide significant sparks to their squads. It's tough to quantify, because if you place them in a centerpiece franchise role, they'd likely fall flat on their face. But they fill a very important void and niche, and do it well.

*cough* Montez Harrell *cough*

[ninjacookies]

*cough* Montez Harrell *cough*

Exactly. Unfortunately these are the things binary outputs have a hard time discerning.


We obviously need IBM Watson to ditch the parkinsons research to focus on helping the BO collective more accurately scout middling talent Prizm/Optic bargain flips.

[Jopeal]

I sometimes feel advanced metrics are more valued by those who don't actually play the game. Of course there is some value to sports analytics, but perhaps far less than Nate Silver wishes to admit.
To address jcardstore's concern above; the mental/emotional biases you' re correlating to scouting methods such as the eye test are far less likely to impact a seasoned NBA scout, Coach or NBA player than they are to the average fan.

That doesn't mean we should throw statistical analyses out the window, but it's good to question the viability of measuring basketball players as though they're robots or pixels in a video game in determining their value to winning games/series/championships.

[jcardstore]

To address jcardstore's concern above; the mental/emotional biases you' re correlating to scouting methods such as the eye test are far less likely to impact a seasoned NBA scout, Coach or NBA player than they are to the average fan.

So I think this is an obvious yes to most non-casual basketball fans.

I was mostly talking about 90% of this board that watch box scores and declare players being the next big thing after a few nice games. Most of the speculators on here casually “watch” the NBA and only care about the flavor of the week.

[Justin7]

So I think this is an obvious yes to most non-casual basketball fans.

I was mostly talking about 90% of this board that watch box scores and declare players being the next big thing after a few nice games. Most of the speculators on here casually “watch” the NBA and only care about the flavor of the week.

I watch every single nba game that doesn’t overlap including preseason and I’ve never heard of some of the guys people in here are hyping up. It’s crazy.

[Jopeal]

I watch every single nba game that doesn’t overlap including preseason and I’ve never heard of some of the guys people in here are hyping up. It’s crazy.

Have you looked into the Baseball side of the hobby? They dig deep.

People hyping up 18-year-old Dominican kids who just got their U.S. Visa's 3 weeks ago.

[Justin7]

Have you looked into the Baseball side of the hobby? They dig deep.

People hyping up 18-year-old Dominican kids who just got their U.S. Visa's 3 weeks ago.

Baseball is the most boring sport to watch behind golf for me. I know baseball guys find it really interesting and that’s all good. I only collect basketball cards and that’ll probably never change. I love the local hobby guys in baseball though I have a good friend that’s really into baseball. I did have a nice ty Cobb from my childhood though that sold for a pretty penny once but that’s literally the only baseball card I’ve ever owned. My lcs is basically all baseball so I’m trying to get some basketball interest rolling.