Hobby Economics

[benz35]

with inflated prices this year (blasters now preselling at 80 per box).
do you think these are sustainable? until when does the money pouring the hobby can sustain the prices of these products, panini is killing it right now, distributors are killing it right now. do you think there will be a sort of recession 2-3 years down the line? a couple of years ago you paying 500-750 for an NT BoX, this year 5k...

[Frankp2311]

There will be some sort of pullback, but the card community seems healthy overall. We cannot keep increasing box and case prices at the rate they have been going up though, or else boxes of Prizm will be $10,000 by 2025. Something has to change on that front and I think it will come directly from the manufacturers.

[PacklineD]

I think the extremely weak incoming NBA rookie class will cool things down a bit. Tough to see folks willing to chase LaMelo Ball and company with the same vigor that we've seen with Luka and Zion the past couple years.

[Cheken]

I think the extremely weak incoming NBA rookie class will cool things down a bit. Tough to see folks willing to chase LaMelo Ball and company with the same vigor that we've seen with Luka and Zion the past couple years.

I used to think this way a couple months ago, but seeing what’s happening - I don’t see next year’s weaker class going to help much in cooling this off. Once the games return, it will be crazier than ever with these so called new “hobbyists” or investors prospecting for the next breakout rookie since they missed the zion/luka boat.

[patchgenie]

should be a recession with the 2nd wave of corona.

[Frankp2311]

I think the extremely weak incoming NBA rookie class will cool things down a bit. Tough to see folks willing to chase LaMelo Ball and company with the same vigor that we've seen with Luka and Zion the past couple years.

I don’t think so. The insert and parallel craze will find a way to keep prices inflated.

[Spink]

Cards will pull back if card investors leave the market.

Lot of people are purchasing for future sales/profit...so we are experiencing...buy buy buy...hold hold hold...most cards could/will crash if there is no hobbyists to purchase at these prices in the coming years.

[tmar214]

I’d be worried if we don’t see prices readjust down for a weaker rookie class. Especially on the lower end products. The 2019 basketball product pricing can at least be explained by zion being viewed as a generational talent.

See issues with 2020 football and baseball presales right now. I can understand the best products skyrocketing in super hot market but it’s odd that so many of the normally clearance products are prices crazy high on presales.

[zeus22]

I don’t think so. The insert and parallel craze will find a way to keep prices inflated.

This.

The inserts and parallels in 19/20 Hoops, Donruss, Optic & Mosaic have surely helped drive prices. True...there were obvious RC reasons to purchase this year, but the inserts are certainly proving to currently be highly priced and potentially very collectible.

[Digerati]

I hope there will be a recession of some kind.

I have nothing against people that make money of the market right now BUT i just wish there was still a "hobby" component to pack/box/case breaking. I miss it.

There used to be levels in this hobby and this could be enjoyed by kids or people that don't have that much money but at the same time there was mid-level stuff like Select and High-End Stuff like NT & Flawless.
The lowest price point was LOW and the highest price point was HIGH.
Now even the low end stuff has been taken away from those people and no one seems to care at all.

Even Panini that used to spend time trying to get kids into the hobby have just given up and cater exclusively to rich, grown men that like gambling/investing more that enjoying this as a hobby.

If you see a picture from the next Nationals or something of some kids sitting on the floor opening Hoops packs just remember that they are probably going through $1000+ in value. Nothing wholesome or "hobby" like about that at all.

[RedMike]

Honestly, I wouldn't even want my kids pulling cards. I want to teach them how to buy singles instead and not try to gamble at an early age especially when the odds are stacked against them. It is like teaching your kids to parlay sports and looking for the big splashes pot when you should just be playing singles and grinding out a profit.


It just seem so hypocritical that we want to pull a card that is rare and indirectly be "worth alot" but then get mad when demand pushes price higher to pull a rare card.

[benz35]

I hope there will be a recession of some kind.

I have nothing against people that make money of the market right now BUT i just wish there was still a "hobby" component to pack/box/case breaking. I miss it.

There used to be levels in this hobby and this could be enjoyed by kids or people that don't have that much money but at the same time there was mid-level stuff like Select and High-End Stuff like NT & Flawless.
The lowest price point was LOW and the highest price point was HIGH.
Now even the low end stuff has been taken away from those people and no one seems to care at all.

Even Panini that used to spend time trying to get kids into the hobby have just given up and cater exclusively to rich, grown men that like gambling/investing more that enjoying this as a hobby.

If you see a picture from the next Nationals or something of some kids sitting on the floor opening Hoops packs just remember that they are probably going through $1000+ in value. Nothing wholesome or "hobby" like about that at all.

sad truth

[brettmik59]

I have nothing against people that make money of the market right now BUT i just wish there was still a "hobby" component to pack/box/case breaking. I miss it.

There used to be levels in this hobby and this could be enjoyed by kids or people that don't have that much money but at the same time there was mid-level stuff like Select and High-End Stuff like NT & Flawless.
The lowest price point was LOW and the highest price point was HIGH.
Now even the low end stuff has been taken away from those people and no one seems to care at all.

1000%. The low end is dead. What people forget is that what drives today's market is 90s kids pumping money into the hobby for the nostalgia. 30 years from now today's kids will not be entering the market because they never collected as kids. You can't even go to Target or Walmart and get ANY cards now. Not Donruss, not Threads. Nothing.

[gomiamigo]

The very week rookie class is going to tank most card prices. Maybe not Luka or Zion if he's healthy but the overall market for sure.

Plus when we get a 2nd wave of Corona in the fall and then people have to buy Xmas gifts for their families, I'd expect a lot of card and sealed wax sales.

Ain't nobody gonna be hoarding wax of LaMelo and James Wiseman.

[Spink]

Ain't nobody gonna be hoarding wax of LaMelo and James Wiseman.

TRUTH

[Jeff1970Red]

Pessimism is not going to win any battles. Either be all in or all out.

[Spink]

Pessimism is not going to win any battles. Either be all in or all out.

I am confused. What do you mean?

[CicadaMound]

Ain't nobody gonna be hoarding wax of LaMelo and James Wiseman.

They might hoard Zion 2nd year wax, though.

[MoeMentum]

I hope this cools off otherwise if Panini makes the mistake of overproducing next years cards with a weak draft class this could kill current prices of cards. A lot of demand right now is driven by over buying for the sake of hoarding and re-selling which is creating an artificial increase in demand. Like any other market we see this with artificial demand there is ALWAYS a tipping point. But I wouldn't bet on it happening before the start of the next season. I think we ride this wave for another year or so.

[karkinos]

there won't be a cool down
everyone is waiting for 2022 and 2023 and during that time more people will be dipping their toes into the market

[jprk31]

The problem right now is were starting off with this ridiculous box prices which means inorder to sustain it collectors will have to be willing to pay a high amount for single cards. There will be more people selling and less people buying which in the long run will hurt the hobby itself.

[allstarcomics]

FOMO will keep it going I don't see a cool off anytime soon. Long as people are paying crazy prices for inserts/gimmick cards/refractors it will continue. This also may just be the start of even another level of crazy. Seeing a lot of newbies pouring in. Lot of junk which had a huge oversupply is being absorbed. 1990's junk wax is selling Huge supply 1980's 1990's rookies are selling and increasing in value for the first time in 30 years. That tells me a ton of new blood arrived eager to buy up their childhood.

[drobfan8]

I hope there will be a recession of some kind.

I have nothing against people that make money of the market right now BUT i just wish there was still a "hobby" component to pack/box/case breaking. I miss it.

There used to be levels in this hobby and this could be enjoyed by kids or people that don't have that much money but at the same time there was mid-level stuff like Select and High-End Stuff like NT & Flawless.
The lowest price point was LOW and the highest price point was HIGH.
Now even the low end stuff has been taken away from those people and no one seems to care at all.

Even Panini that used to spend time trying to get kids into the hobby have just given up and cater exclusively to rich, grown men that like gambling/investing more that enjoying this as a hobby.

If you see a picture from the next Nationals or something of some kids sitting on the floor opening Hoops packs just remember that they are probably going through $1000+ in value. Nothing wholesome or "hobby" like about that at all.

As a kid out here in Australia in the 90s. We used to have to pay $5 per pack for 93 UD. I think Skybox was about $3.50.

So $180 for a box of 93 UD.

Whilst there's a lot of hype and BS currently, surely there are $10 packs around taking in inflation.

I agree with what you're saying. Maybe it's time they had a Topps like product with decent inserts to hit?

97/98 Topps was effing amazing

[TimBuckTwo]

I hope this cools off otherwise if Panini makes the mistake of overproducing next years cards with a weak draft class this could kill current prices of cards. A lot of demand right now is driven by over buying for the sake of hoarding and re-selling which is creating an artificial increase in demand. Like any other market we see this with artificial demand there is ALWAYS a tipping point. But I wouldn't bet on it happening before the start of the next season. I think we ride this wave for another year or so.

Why would next years weak class hurt product with Zion and Ja RC in it?

It should boost these prices as the money will go here instead. 2019-20 product.

[RogerGodahell]

Panini isn't really killing it any more then they ever have if you think about it. They sell out of every product every year no matter what. They don't hold inventory, the distributors do. The distributors are killing it. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if you see MSRP go up. Why should Panini let the distributors quadruple or octuple their prices and they don't get any extra?

[RogerGodahell]

Already started seeing it happen with Panini's version of the Dutch auctions for FOTL products.

[RogerGodahell]

Sorry I quoted the wrong post. I meant to quote this one below.

"I think the extremely weak incoming NBA rookie class will cool things down a bit. Tough to see folks willing to chase LaMelo Ball and company with the same vigor that we've seen with Luka and Zion the past couple years. "

A lot of people think that but honestly I don't and i'll tell you why. People want to open packs of cards at a reasonable price. With the prices of packs and boxes so high right now they will devour anything you put in front of them at a reasonable price. Even if next years class sucks they'll still be chasing LeBron's and second year Zion's, and Luka's. Also the amount of people who started collecting or flipping boxes right now has increased like tenfold this year. Probably even more then that. And Personally I don't think you're going to be able to find retail next year because of the reasons I just mentioned.

They may not be as high as this year, but the good old days are gone. I don't think you'll ever see those again, unfortunately.

[armyml]

Panini isn't really killing it any more then they ever have if you think about it. They sell out of every product every year no matter what. They don't hold inventory, the distributors do. The distributors are killing it. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if you see MSRP go up. Why should Panini let the distributors quadruple or octuple their prices and they don't get any extra?I agree with this completely. In this landscape I would be totally happy with MSRP doubling or even tripling. That way if the distributors try to hoard and make the same dumb profits they're making now the price of a box would be so high nobody would buy. Plus If resellers couldnt take all product off the shelf and sell it for 4x Msrp then that's a win too. Make msrp 60 on a blaster. Maybe nobody would buy @4x msrp for resale and there would be product on the shelf for people. That's just wishful thinking on my part though.

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[RadicalAlmond]

Ya I actually think about this. I wonder if it is better to sell most my good stuff now. It just seems like the excitement wont be as high and maybe people who were willing to buy will start exiting.

[nrm1977]

I do not see new wax coming down in price anytime soon. There are a ton of new people in the hobby. I do not think we've seen this many people in the hobby since the first boom (1987-93). It almost reminds of 1992 basketball, anything the manufacturers would print would sell like hot cakes at inflated prices.

I would assume the card manufacturers will keep increasing production on all their products. This has been happening the every year with Prizm. Their main purpose like any other business is to make the most money possible.

I can assure you next years Prizm will be selling lot hot cakes again. The days of me getting my ripping fix of Prizm via retail are over for the time being.

I do wish Panini/Topps would create something on their websites that does not allow bots to buy out every product. Though, why do they care? Considering everything sells out. I strongly feel Panini/Topps will keep increases the prices when selling direct to consumers. In which case is already happening. Think about the money Panini is making doing their dutch auctions and do not forget about Topps selling 2020 Bowman hobby boxes for $240. The profits are huge and the will continue to go down that path.

I was never a big wax box ripper. Though, I do get the itch every once in a while. Now, I've completely stopped buying wax unless I find some retail at mrsp. I have adjusted my collecting to just buying singles.

I am sure all the new investors will not be around for the long haul like most of us. The hobby will readjust itself in time. It happened during the last boom and it will happen again. Who knows when that will happen but, it will.

Edit: I am curious how kids will be able to collect with the current prices.

[BrokenSpirit808]

Wax will definitely cool down first, then most cards with the exception of the top players. People think prices will explode once sports resume but I think it will level and might actually go down. No sports means no gambling. You probably talking hundreds of millions in lost wagers. Most of that money probably went into sports cards and stocks which explains the strong markets we been seeing.
I’m putting my money where my mouth is on this and have been offloading everything I can. I’m already starting to see it in certain wax and cards already. Yes some have gone up but there’s a lot I been tracking that’s gone down.

[k13]

The very week rookie class is going to tank most card prices. Maybe not Luka or Zion if he's healthy but the overall market for sure.

Plus when we get a 2nd wave of Corona in the fall and then people have to buy Xmas gifts for their families, I'd expect a lot of card and sealed wax sales.

Ain't nobody gonna be hoarding wax of LaMelo and James Wiseman.

Lamelo will have more hype than Lonzo and Lonzo sold like hot cakes early plus some rookie will get hot and the hype will get going.

No prizm wax will be left on shelves from now on.

No one really wanted Luka/Trea till later on...All that wax was sitting there cheap early.

Eventually some rookie will breakout from any class and the chase begins.

Even here in Canada, there's guys already getting ready for the next Prizm/Optic chase.

[k13]

1000%. The low end is dead. What people forget is that what drives today's market is 90s kids pumping money into the hobby for the nostalgia. 30 years from now today's kids will not be entering the market because they never collected as kids. You can't even go to Target or Walmart and get ANY cards now. Not Donruss, not Threads. Nothing.

They are chasing $$$$$$ not nostalgia.

When people see idiots paying thousands for Lebron parallels and $1000+ for $100 boxes then all the vultures come out.

No one gave a crap a few years ago and everything Panini Basketball was discounted everywhere remember?

[benz35]

They are chasing $$$$$$ not nostalgia.

When people see idiots paying thousands for Lebron parallels and $1000+ for $100 boxes then all the vultures come out.

No one gave a crap a few years ago and everything Panini Basketball was discounted everywhere remember?

yup2 only few boxes were holding their prices... if i recall we always had discussion which product holds value/now all boxes seems to appreciate overtime..

[mc1]

Lamelo will have more hype than Lonzo and Lonzo sold like hot cakes early plus some rookie will get hot and the hype will get going.

No prizm wax will be left on shelves from now on.

No one really wanted Luka/Trea till later on...All that wax was sitting there cheap early.

Eventually some rookie will breakout from any class and the chase begins.

Even here in Canada, there's guys already getting ready for the next Prizm/Optic chase.

:doh:

Lonzo and the 17-18 hype was nothing compared to what weve seen the last couple years. Im not sure why anyone wants to even call that hype. It was a pistol bang compared to an atomic bomb.

[k13]

:doh:

Lonzo and the 17-18 hype was nothing compared to what weve seen the last couple years. Im not sure why anyone wants to even call that hype. It was a pistol bang compared to an atomic bomb.

It had Tatum, Markannan, Mitchell exploded.

Before that you had a HUGE hype with Ben Simmons...
Remember his Silver prices...

Before that...KAT, russell, okafar porzingies, then booker exploded..

Before that...Wiggins was HUGE...sold better than Lebron..


Every year there will be someone, it does not matter that eventually their hype will go down.

No one is taking anymore chances on leaving potential out there.
From now on, no Prizm type products will be left on shelves unless big changes happen.

There is no basketball products in Canada anywhere and not because Raptors won a championship.

[RadicalAlmond]

I think if their name isnt Ja, Luka, Trae or Zion they will lose value.