Sports card market to take another jump soon?

[eastbayak]

With talks of a second stimulus check coming to US citizens (where certain criteria are met), do you think the sports card market will take another (crazy) jump?

I recently thought about it and can see another price jump for some of the reasons below:

1. The coronarvirus situation isn't improving, in fact, it's getting worse in many US states. But that only makes sense when attempting to re-open states (not to mention, dealing with non-compliant Americans). But a number of states are starting to pause and/or roll back certain aspects of their state's re-opening. The main point being that there's still limited entertainment options available to the average American sports card collector/flipper so good money will continue to go towards sports cards.

2. Many Americans are out of work but many more Americans are working. For those who are out of work, they're still receiving unemployment insurance (UI; that should, at the minimum, go until mid-September with the possibility of an extension). And for some individuals receiving UI, they're actually netting more money than when they were actually working (although, supposedly, that'll be fixed). The main point I argue is that, for many Americans, the second stimulus check likely wouldn't go to basic survival needs (rent, food, etc) or savings efforts (IRA, savings account, etc). Rather, it'd likely go towards improving one's quality of life.

3. I don't know how many American sports cards collectors/flippers there are out there, but each day, it seems that new individuals enter the hobby (observable by the questions asked on the forums by new members, in FB groups, YouTube comments, reddit posts, etc). It's clear that the hobby is receiving a lot of attention/exposure right now. I don't know if this is a conservative number but I'll use it anyway. If 100,000 American sports card collectors/flippers fit the criteria for receiving a stimulus check (and assume the second stimulus check, if given, would be the same $1200), that's $120 million dollars. Even if it's only 10,000 individuals, that'd still be $12 million. Many of these individuals are likely to put that money towards sports cards (whether it be singles/boxes/etc). Concluding point, if there's a second stimulus check, a lot more "new" money will enter the hobby.

Sorry, this got super long. So, if we Americans do get a second stimulus check, do you envision the sports card market getting another bump? If yes, why? If no, why?

If it does get another bump, how will it impact the hobby overall? Will the lasting effects be good or bad? I don't know enough about inflation to know the overall impact years from now.

[LeonfromNC]

If the nba season gets shut down again, I fear the worse. I think the bubble pops.

[6celtics33]

I predict the vultures by today’s standards get priced out and start threads about the new vultures ruining things and how this used to be a hobby.

[Ginger Ale]

If the nba season gets shut down again, I fear the worse. I think the bubble pops.

If the season gets shut down again, I think cards will spike again.

[Disco187]

YouTube channel have seam to gain a lot of steam, and retail seams to be even getting more scarce even on lowest end products . I also think the average collectors from what I have seen are well rounded people usually resulting in some type of decent job/family etc. especially when a dozen or two collectors come in with big pockets . The extension of the virus could provide sustainability or possibly drive the hobby down a tad by the decrease of stability in job market etc. the psa back log does cross my mind as well will there be a huge amount of base and key rookie cards on the market ? But on the other hand it does seam psa is grading harder. I do feel the hobby will upswing for a while yet .

[gomiamigo]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

[beavers]

If the nba season gets shut down again, I fear the worse. I think the bubble pops.

The current jump is occurring without games. I don't think another shutdown will hurt the hobby at all. People have been taking part as a form of entertainment. That won't change until more activities open back up and people start spending their money going out to eat, going to concerts, traveling, etc. As long as people need entertained we will see more people flowing in. Also, a percentage of these new entrants will stay in the hobby forever. Even if there is a change in activity and prices it wont pop the bubble, it would be more like a consolidation before next season where things will take another leg up.

[HanaleiJay]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

This disease is at it's worst point in 42/50 states. The second wave hasn't even started yet. We are all looking at a second lockdown unless our government starts taking this more seriously, which they won't.

MLB will not make it through a season, NBA probably won't either, schools are not going to open, all college sports cancelled until at least spring. It will only get worse before it gets better.

[cowboyzqna]

A card I spent 300 a few months ago is now consistently selling for over 3k (bought lebron rc raw that dimed)


How much more could it go up?! Dont get me wrong i am very very happy with how well its doing... But at some point a line has to be drawn right?


Idk. Fun times in the hobby :)


I think you could have bought that same card in psa 10 form 2 years ago for around the 3 i paid raw. Crazy.

[wilsunshines]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

Gotta point out that this is not true. The infection rate--the percentage of positive tests in the US--has been increasing for the past few weeks. It's still not where it was at the height of NYC's worst days, but it is certainly rising... and since NY and NJ have leveled off, it's rising quickly other places--especially the South. This is from the CDC and goes through July 4th:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/07102020/images/clinical-labs.gif

[dsprague12]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.


This is just wrong. Not trying to start an argument, but to say that because the percentage rate of testing is increasing faster than the percentage rate of infection at one moment in time means that COVID is going away is not correct. The percentage of positive tests (followed over time) is what reflects whether or not cases are increasing. In your case example using NV, their current positive test rate is around 13% and largely stable over the last week (maybe down a percentage point or two, but hardly a profound or sustained trend). This compares to a positive test rate of around 3% in early June before the lockdown ended.

I will not be responding to any response to this as this is a sports card message board, but statements like this that prompted my reply are just wrong and are not helpful.


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[brothertona]

They are opening up our convention center for extra beds here in Atlanta, Texas is almost at capacity in their hospitals, as is Florida - this is spiraling out of control.

[RandyC]

If the season gets shut down again, I think cards will spike again.

Yup, I agree. Once the season starts, most basketball cards will take a small dip.

[byronscott4ever]

When a league resumes, players and teams doing well will have a bump—but anyone who Kemped during the time off might see the reverse

[jellyboy]

I think if the season reopen the card prices will drop.....

[mc1]

Here we go again with the whole “stimulus check and unemployment are raising prices” spiel.:doh:

You see prices of boxes lately? Dont think I could get a 19-20 hobby prizm box with $1200. 2 hobby Optic boxes?

Might be able to get a Kyrie color blast!

[KhalDrogo]

Back to the cards....

Yes, I think the market continues to trend upward regardless of what happens with the restart.

[TSonn]

Yeah, I think we should avoid using absolutes like "the coronavirus situation is definitely improving". It may be improving some places (mostly where mask mandates are present), but other places it's getting worse. I understand more testing equals more cases, but there are a couple data points that cut through the amount of testing discussion - infection rate and positive test rate. Michigan has had it under control for quite a while but our infection rate has rising from .5 to over 1.2 recently which means 1 person is infecting more than 1 more person. We need it to be under 1 (and honestly under .5) to get through this. Positive test rate has been steady or declining - which is good - but also doesn't tell the whole story. Thankfully, Michigan just announced a statewide mask mandate for indoor public places to hopefully get our infection rate back under control.

As for cards, I think the bubble lasts a while since cards are a bit like gambling and the hobby is super hard to drop because it's quite addicting. Most new money / new people entering won't leave for a while. I think it will burst after next year's draft class if it's terrible OR if we have no NBA for multiple seasons.

[NeilCO]

If the nba season gets shut down again, I fear the worse. I think the bubble pops.

I'm with Leon. Sure, prices are currently rising with no games, but right now there is the *promise* of games. If the league shuts down, we essentially get an extended offseason. Prices always go down in the offseason.

Prices are also just so insanely high right now, relative to a couple years ago, that I just can't imagine them going too much higher. There are only so many buyers with tens of thousands of expendable dollars to drop on everything Zion, Ja, LeBron, etc.

[whoaitsg33]

If the nba season gets shut down again, I fear the worse. I think the bubble pops.

this^^^

i think a lot of these exuberant prices have an expiration date especially for younger players who are being priced on potential. i think a slight dip on interest will take place if the season is cancelled with no guarantees that a new season will even resume by december.


i think the other legends like lebron, kobe, jordan and to a certain extent giannis will stay afloat.

[Spacemanspif]

I'm with Leon. Sure, prices are currently rising with no games, but right now there is the *promise* of games. If the league shuts down, we essentially get an extended offseason. Prices always go down in the offseason.

Prices are also just so insanely high right now, relative to a couple years ago, that I just can't imagine them going too much higher. There are only so many buyers with tens of thousands of expendable dollars to drop on everything Zion, Ja, LeBron, etc.

I actually disagree. Generally there is a decline when things are "out of sight, out of mind", so for example non-playoff teams during the playoffs last year, or anybody in the immediate aftermath of the Finals (June-Aug). However, the month or two before the season started back up there were quite a few run-ups in pricing, as people were reading pieces about "this guy making the leap next year" or whatever. Basically, speculation. That was under normal circumstances. We seem to be in a period of pure speculation, regardless of whether games are to be played or not. I mean, not all teams are coming back. If current pricing was predicated only on the "promise of games", you wouldn't have people paying thousands of dollars for Trae Young / Coby White / RJ Barrett / KPJ / Steph Curry / etc

[Cubs37]

I think it will burst after next year's draft class if it's terrible OR if we have no NBA for multiple seasons.

*shudders at the thought*

[Akphillips86]

First, the market isn’t going anywhere. People enjoy the hobby wayyyy too much for the market to just pop, games or not.

If the NBA has to shut down, most cards will begin to revert back to the regular offseason cycle. People aren’t going to suddenly forget what values trading cards are capable of attaining though, there are certain indelible impressions that will remain and cards will forever hold value (the sky isn’t falling).

Something that people seem to forget in all this is that the funds from a lot of cards that are being sold are used to purchase more cards. Most people aren’t just throwing thousands of dollars on cards and never selling. Instead, these cards change hands multiple times and the card community keeps humming along.

All that to say, games or no, I’m still buying [emoji106]


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[Jopeal]

I predict the vultures by today’s standards get priced out and start threads about the new vultures ruining things and how this used to be a hobby.

https://media.giphy.com/media/lI6nHr5hWXlu0/giphy.gif

[hauntedcomputer]

I'd go so far as to say the NBA won't be able to start next season, much less finish this one. The first player that gets career-ending Covid symptoms will shelve it. Whether that has any relationship to card values, I don't know. One thing I do know is a recession is looming and free money dries up eventually. A lot of people can't even make rent or house payments. Honestly, a lot of the sudden boom feels like apocalyptic fever at this point. The world is going to hell so why not run up the credit card on shiny cardboard?

But as the saying goes, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

[phisouza33]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

LOL, you crazy

[DajuanWagner]

A card I spent 300 a few months ago is now consistently selling for over 3k (bought lebron rc raw that dimed)


How much more could it go up?! Dont get me wrong i am very very happy with how well its doing... But at some point a line has to be drawn right?


Idk. Fun times in the hobby :)


I think you could have bought that same card in psa 10 form 2 years ago for around the 3 i paid raw. Crazy.




O.k. I'll bite. What card did you recently get for 300 that is now worth $3000 in today's Covid/unemployment dollars???? Congrats on the come-up and congrats on the dimed...……...I am guessing Hoops rc…….

[Ra3]

If the season starts up again, it’s possible that these players will have more of the world’s attention on them than they have ever had. Maybe in the history of the game.

And beyond the societal events at play creating that intense attention for non-sports reasons, on the sports side of the ledger, a number of players will have the opportunity to add to their legend/resume (Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis) or start to prove the excitement around them is merited (Zion, Luka, Ja)...

I think excitement and attention to basketball cards could actually grow if the NBA bubble season/tourney starts up and goes well.

[daeve]

I'd go so far as to say the NBA won't be able to start next season, much less finish this one. The first player that gets career-ending Covid symptoms will shelve it. Whether that has any relationship to card values, I don't know. One thing I do know is a recession is looming and free money dries up eventually. A lot of people can't even make rent or house payments. Honestly, a lot of the sudden boom feels like apocalyptic fever at this point. The world is going to hell so why not run up the credit card on shiny cardboard?

But as the saying goes, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Weirdly enough I completely agree with the second part of your post, but this first bit disagree fully haha.

Think about all the meetings + $$ spent to set up what they have going now. Also players get injured in sports, it's just a fact of life. The NFL didn't stop when it was found that the constant micro-concussions they accrue every day lead to CTE, early onset Alzheimers, and irreparable brain damage [which can lead to depression and suicide]. For young athletes, covid is not nearly as dangerous as CTE. Also I'm sure the lawyers representing the NBA and the players have been working overtime to make sure all the bases are covered before resuming. There's billions on the line, for both sides.

And those billions are also why it won't shut down. I think at this point, even if a couple players were to become critically ill [again that's extremely rare with this virus and young healthy people], it wouldn't completely shut it down. Maybe for a week, two at most. But you also have to remember, this is prime Lebron on the Lakers. The doesn't come around too often to have the most popular player on the planet on the most popular team, with a chance at the title - oh, and a major motion picture on the way as well. We will most certainly not lose 'multiple seasons'.

[Kobe101]

The market is so complicated right now but something to consider....


A lot of new investor types now who will hear from the SCI and the other investor guros the off-season is the best time to invest and haven’t been around long to know how crazy prices are will continue to buy if the season is canceled.

If the bubble works and a few guys under perform and prices drop some of the new investors who lose a ton of money may bail and it may scare other new investors types out.

[thejazzcollector]

I'd go so far as to say the NBA won't be able to start next season, much less finish this one. The first player that gets career-ending Covid symptoms will shelve it. Whether that has any relationship to card values, I don't know. One thing I do know is a recession is looming and free money dries up eventually. A lot of people can't even make rent or house payments. Honestly, a lot of the sudden boom feels like apocalyptic fever at this point. The world is going to hell so why not run up the credit card on shiny cardboard?

But as the saying goes, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Do you think that will happen though?
Maybe I’m being optimistic, but it seems incredibly unlikely to me that COVID is going to be the cause of anyone’s retirement.
It seems like the players who have tested positive have shown little to no symptoms at all, let alone career ending ones.

[Jopeal]

I'd go so far as to say the NBA won't be able to start next season, much less finish this one. The first player that gets career-ending Covid symptoms will shelve it. Whether that has any relationship to card values, I don't know. One thing I do know is a recession is looming and free money dries up eventually. A lot of people can't even make rent or house payments. Honestly, a lot of the sudden boom feels like apocalyptic fever at this point. The world is going to hell so why not run up the credit card on shiny cardboard?

But as the saying goes, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

The recession started on March 11th I think.

The sports card boom is not being pumped up by $1200 stimulus checks nearly as much as it's being pumped up by rich investors, young sneaker traders and new entrant sports gamblers/fantasy sports participants with free time on their hands. It's a subset of a greater economic shift happening.
Just my opinion.

[psd2k10]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

Wow. What a stupid thing to post! So inaccurate! :doh:

[eastbayak]

Thanks everyone! Definitely a lot of great comments.

Questions for all:

- Do you guys think retail products will ever be "accessible" to the regular collector again?
- After we get a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think a lot of people who recently entered the hobby will end up leaving it?

Questions for specific folks:

Leon/NeilCO/whoaitsg33: Regardless of whether the season gets shut down, where do you think people will spend their money? Other forms of entertainment, retirement/savings accounts, basic survival needs, etc?
mc1: Are you saying that stimulus checks have no impact on the hobby?

Khal/Spacemanspif/Akphillips: How much longer do you think the uptrend can sustain?

TSonn: When do you see the new money/people leaving the hobby?

hauntedcomputer: What impact do you see another stimulus check having on the hobby (short-term and long-term)?

Jopeal: Why do you think rich investors are moving into the sports card market? Is it because they see better performance than the traditional stock market? Or are they "diversifying" their investments?

[Pathora]

To answer one of your questions, I expect Prizm and potentially all Retail next season to be marked up double or triple MSRP for NBA. I think that's the only way you'll ever see retail products be somewhat accessible along with a Zion-less Draft Class.

[bberns]

Cards rise based on hope. If no games are being played, then hope is preserved for all. It's not your typical offseason where there are 29 losers and one winner.

[pbasniper]

Thanks everyone! Definitely a lot of great comments.

Questions for all:

- Do you guys think retail products will ever be "accessible" to the regular collector again?
- After we get a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think a lot of people who recently entered the hobby will end up leaving it?

Questions for specific folks:

Leon/NeilCO/whoaitsg33: Regardless of whether the season gets shut down, where do you think people will spend their money? Other forms of entertainment, retirement/savings accounts, basic survival needs, etc?
mc1: Are you saying that stimulus checks have no impact on the hobby?

Khal/Spacemanspif/Akphillips: How much longer do you think the uptrend can sustain?

TSonn: When do you see the new money/people leaving the hobby?

hauntedcomputer: What impact do you see another stimulus check having on the hobby (short-term and long-term)?

Jopeal: Why do you think rich investors are moving into the sports card market? Is it because they see better performance than the traditional stock market? Or are they "diversifying" their investments?


I just want to touch on the retail part. The bottom end retail stuff like Score etc. all the stuff you normally see forever on the shelf has been disapearing near me. I honestly just thought it was people who like to rip or even kids but I saw on twitter a guy ask why he can't flip his 2020 Score football blaster for $35. He honestly just heard blasters are buy for $20 sell for $35 make money, he had no idea. Obviously this is bad for the hobby overall as all this low end stuff that can get people into the hobby is being sucked up by people who have no idea what they are doing.

I also saw someone mention increaseing the price for retail, didn't Panini do that with Mosaic? A retail mega at Walmart went up to $60, all that happened was the resale went up. I don't think a price bump does anything but increase the price they are on the secondary market when the show up. Even if you limit retail buys like some stores have people are going to find ways around it.

[drobfan8]

I would say there will be a massive fall before there's a massive spike.

I've never seen so many $10k + cards. Unless there really is that many wealthy people joining the "Hobby"

Good thing is there's loads of value buys elsewhere. From key sets and future HOFers.

Tax time is about to hit here in Aus, so that will bring some $$$ to cards from the market.

A lot of people are busting right now, myself included, I think we'll see the new buyers realize singles are generally the best way to go. May start to see breaks not selling.

But who knows, there is a lot of interest right now and Panini are doing lots of good things. If they bring out another Eminence type set with a full checklist and all the Superstar signings they have it'll blow the roof off.

[dcarado]

Cards rise based on hope. If no games are being played, then hope is preserved for all. It's not your typical offseason where there are 29 losers and one winner.

This exactly. I've said since the beginning of COVID that the shutdown is the best possible scenario for Zion card prices. I know there's other factors, but at this point, it's going to take more than not finishing this season to slow this train (and I mean for everyone who's on the rise, not just Zion).

[Jopeal]

Cards rise based on hope. If no games are being played, then hope is preserved for all. It's not your typical offseason where there are 29 losers and one winner.

Interesting point. It would all just be an extended off-season buildup for the on-time NBA '20-21 season.

[ShoutFan2020]

I would say the hobby isn't being impacted at all by stimulus checks. The hobby is being impacted by higher ups that are usually spending money taking clients to sports games and buying season tickets. So now, how do you entertain a client that you would normally wine and dine with dinner and courtside or loge seats? That's it, do the math. "You say you are a Celtics/Lakers/Pelicans fan Joe? What a coincidence, I just happened to come across this [insert rare card or memorabilia piece here] and was wondering who was a fan". Once the games pick back up, the money will flow to the box seats again.

Other point is that UI runs out for a lot of people in July (it isn't eternal) so a second stimulus check is going toward basics since $1200 didn't do diddly (compare Canada). So that won't won't bring a second wave either. Lots of people haven't paid utilities to save monthly money (most states have no shut-off orders) and those bills will come due eventually. Lot of other priorities for those folks than a $200 box giving them $40 in return.

[Akphillips86]

Thanks everyone! Definitely a lot of great comments.

Questions for all:

- Do you guys think retail products will ever be "accessible" to the regular collector again?
- After we get a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think a lot of people who recently entered the hobby will end up leaving it?

Questions for specific folks:

Leon/NeilCO/whoaitsg33: Regardless of whether the season gets shut down, where do you think people will spend their money? Other forms of entertainment, retirement/savings accounts, basic survival needs, etc?
mc1: Are you saying that stimulus checks have no impact on the hobby?

Khal/Spacemanspif/Akphillips: How much longer do you think the uptrend can sustain?

TSonn: When do you see the new money/people leaving the hobby?

hauntedcomputer: What impact do you see another stimulus check having on the hobby (short-term and long-term)?

Jopeal: Why do you think rich investors are moving into the sports card market? Is it because they see better performance than the traditional stock market? Or are they "diversifying" their investments?


I think things will continue to trend selectively upward. Here’s my predictions, some are bold, some are no brainers, some are shots in the dark, but hey here goes...

1. I think the growth of graded base will slow dramatically, but only because it increased almost exponentially. Prices won’t continue into the stratosphere.

2. The following will always be important in the modern market: A player’s first Prizm and Optic, and the first Prizm and Optic sets. Optic will also start to narrow the gap on Prizm.

3. Revolution will continue to grow in popularity.

4. Low serial #’d cards are going to see much higher premiums than they currently command as discerning collectors seek out more scarcity.

5. Inserts are going to experience a Renaissance and Panini will start adding a better variety of scarce inserts (like they do in Court Kings) across their product lines.

6. Kinda no brainer, but 2nd and 3rd tier players will lose a lot of their accumulated hype value when they don’t show gains the next year. The money is going to flow back to the megastars and the latest up and comers.

7. BGS true gems are going to close SOME of the gap on PSA 10. I think it’s just a matter of time before people will get fed up with the price disparity and refuse to pay such a high premium for a card that’s likely in the same condition.

8. Sticker autos are going to continue to trend downward and on card is going to soar.

9. Retail goes immediately behind the counter when it is stocked and purchase limits will be fixed. Prices will also be much higher.

10. Lastly, and most importantly, the number of new basketball collectors entering the hobby is going to outpace the growth of any other sport, thus leading to a stronger, more vibrant basketball market. COVID only got more people involved in the hobby, not less, regardless of whether another game is played this season or not.


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[Spacemanspif]

Thanks everyone! Definitely a lot of great comments.

Questions for all:

- Do you guys think retail products will ever be "accessible" to the regular collector again?
- After we get a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think a lot of people who recently entered the hobby will end up leaving it?

Questions for specific folks:

Leon/NeilCO/whoaitsg33: Regardless of whether the season gets shut down, where do you think people will spend their money? Other forms of entertainment, retirement/savings accounts, basic survival needs, etc?
mc1: Are you saying that stimulus checks have no impact on the hobby?

Khal/Spacemanspif/Akphillips: How much longer do you think the uptrend can sustain?

TSonn: When do you see the new money/people leaving the hobby?

hauntedcomputer: What impact do you see another stimulus check having on the hobby (short-term and long-term)?

Jopeal: Why do you think rich investors are moving into the sports card market? Is it because they see better performance than the traditional stock market? Or are they "diversifying" their investments?


I didn't think the uptrend would come this far, especially not at this level of pricing, and yet here we are. I'm still spending a ton, but trying to be smart about what I'm putting money into. For example, buying wax but of things that are relatively underpriced If Spectra / Obsidian / latest flavor of the week are growing to 6x or 8x SRP, then I go back to revisit Optic and Mosaic. If PSA 10s are overbought and start hitting 4x PSA9, I check those out

I know there are plenty of theories about what caused the bubble, and of course they're all factors, you just have to think about them separately when projecting the future market

Economic factors


Stimulus checks: I think the impact of these are overblown. It pretty much buys you 2 nice cards, or a handful of boxes of wax at this point, and that's if you blow the entire thing on cards. What we've seen in this market is so many multiples of this I can't imagine these one time checks made that much of an impact

Alternative / diversifying investing: I think this money is real and here to stay. However, most people who have this money are also not stupid. I would think the pricing of things like Prizm Hobby, certain FOTL, maybe NT, are where people put their money, because the assumption is that these will still be in demand 5 years from now. Obsidian FOTL shiny blah blah with $500 buy in? Might not appreciate or even maintain pricing because there's no demand driving it, and all upside is already priced in.

Lack of live entertainment: All the money we would be dropping on going to games, or on beer and hot wings at the local sports bar while watching sports, is now being put into cards and breaks. I suspect when things come back to normal, some of this money will go back to the traditional avenues, but I also think that introducing new people to these things will cause some people & their money to stay (albeit in smaller quantities)


New people


"I was a collector as a kid, now I'm an adult with disposable income" - count me in this group. We're here to stay.

Shoe / Funk flippers, Gary V lemmings, social media types: this is what scares me. People jumping in head first because they heard everyone is making money hand over fist and want in on the action, but have zero knowledge or context. Lots of these people will lose their shirts, and will leave just as quickly as they came. Will this cause the market to tank? Not necessarily. Their money is already here, being recycled around since no "vets" I know of are actually pulling profits out but just re-investing into different cards. The one scenario where things could semi-crash is if people are over-leveraging themselves thinking that this new money supply is endless. Just don't be the last one holding the hot bag of poop.

Gamblers: we know they love sports, and don't mind dropping thousands of dollars on sports. They'll probably resume gambling and DFS once sports resume, but I think the thrill of rips / breaks is definitely catching on with these types (I sort of fit in here too), which will keep wax in demand and the prices high



sorry that was kind of a lot, I could go on forever and love these types of discussions though. very interested in what others think and if I missed any groups

[ShoutFan2020]

[/LIST]

New people


"I was a collector as a kid, now I'm an adult with disposable income" - count me in this group. We're here to stay.

Shoe / Funk flippers, Gary V lemmings, social media types: this is what scares me. People jumping in head first because they heard everyone is making money hand over fist and want in on the action, but have zero knowledge or context. Lots of these people will lose their shirts, and will leave just as quickly as they came. Will this cause the market to tank? Not necessarily. Their money is already here, being recycled around since no "vets" I know of are actually pulling profits out but just re-investing into different cards. The one scenario where things could semi-crash is if people are over-leveraging themselves thinking that this new money supply is endless. Just don't be the last one holding the hot bag of poop.

Gamblers: we know they love sports, and don't mind dropping thousands of dollars on sports. They'll probably resume gambling and DFS once sports resume, but I think the thrill of rips / breaks is definitely catching on with these types (I sort of fit in here too), which will keep wax in demand and the prices high




I don't see the Gamblers hanging around once the games start. This is just a bit of a quick itch to them. But the serious compulsive gamblers aren't used to "winning" by getting their money back on a break. And they know how to review odds ad nauseum to know what hits and what doesn't. You take a simple $100 parlay bet on 3-4 games as an example, that's what excites them, not a $500 card from a $300 box.

[drobfan8]

I think things will continue to trend selectively upward. Here’s my predictions, some are bold, some are no brainers, some are shots in the dark, but hey here goes...

1. I think the growth of graded base will slow dramatically, but only because it increased almost exponentially. Prices won’t continue into the stratosphere.

2. The following will always be important in the modern market: A player’s first Prizm and Optic, and the first Prizm and Optic sets. Optic will also start to narrow the gap on Prizm.

3. Revolution will continue to grow in popularity.

4. Low serial #’d cards are going to see much higher premiums than they currently command as discerning collectors seek out more scarcity.

5. Inserts are going to experience a Renaissance and Panini will start adding a better variety of scarce inserts (like they do in Court Kings) across their product lines.

6. Kinda no brainer, but 2nd and 3rd tier players will lose a lot of their accumulated hype value when they don’t show gains the next year. The money is going to flow back to the megastars and the latest up and comers.

7. BGS true gems are going to close SOME of the gap on PSA 10. I think it’s just a matter of time before people will get fed up with the price disparity and refuse to pay such a high premium for a card that’s likely in the same condition.

8. Sticker autos are going to continue to trend downward and on card is going to soar.

9. Retail goes immediately behind the counter when it is stocked and purchase limits will be fixed. Prices will also be much higher.

10. Lastly, and most importantly, the number of new basketball collectors entering the hobby is going to outpace the growth of any other sport, thus leading to a stronger, more vibrant basketball market. COVID only got more people involved in the hobby, not less, regardless of whether another game is played this season or not.


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Nice post.

As an International collector I'll add this.

Here in Australia cards haven't been stocked in shops for a long time (since the 98 lock out) other than the odd overpriced couple of card stores left.

This has made a comeback on a small scale level. Australia is on the verge of receiving a lot of future stock as the Mosaic Cellos and Court Kings retail sold out fast.

I've seen new players in the game out here with youtube channels hyping stuff, the wheels are in motion.

I honestly see only growth moving forward in the Hobby (don't confuse my use of the word growth to wealth growth, I'm talking about the Hobby).

There are many collectors jumping on. And new collectors make a lot of mistakes (I was buying all kinds of boxes when I came back in 2005, mostly garbage).

It's exciting at the same time.

[brothertona]

Unfortunately retail will never be prevalent again - people have seen the margins - and unfortunately I don't think stores will want to build separate areas for sports cards so they'll likely stop carrying cards or only carry them online and those without limits will immediately sell out. You'll never see basketball at MSRP again. This year destroyed it for pretty much everyone. If you can clear a shelf and make a grand you're going to do that so yeah sorry everyone. I hope you enjoy Blowout prices or breaks.

[hauntedcomputer]

Card companies would be stupid not to jack up print runs exponentially to meet demand. I'll bet Panini is kicking themselves and figuring out how many more offshoots to release next year. They have little to gain by artificially restricting supply. I wouldn't be surprised if they crank up the presses again on this year's cards (may already have). Next year you may see them at the gas station counter again.

The new money hasn't been burned yet, so it may take a while. But when your mortgage payment is due, you can't take a $2,000 Tyler Herro rookie to the bank, even in Miami.

[RogerGodahell]

If the season starts up again, it’s possible that these players will have more of the world’s attention on them than they have ever had. Maybe in the history of the game.

And beyond the societal events at play creating that intense attention for non-sports reasons, on the sports side of the ledger, a number of players will have the opportunity to add to their legend/resume (Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis) or start to prove the excitement around them is merited (Zion, Luka, Ja)...

I think excitement and attention to basketball cards could actually grow if the NBA bubble season/tourney starts up and goes well.

It's already started. Players and teams are in Orlando now.

[Akphillips86]

Card companies would be stupid not to jack up print runs exponentially to meet demand. I'll bet Panini is kicking themselves and figuring out how many more offshoots to release next year. They have little to gain by artificially restricting supply. I wouldn't be surprised if they crank up the presses again on this year's cards (may already have). Next year you may see them at the gas station counter again.

The new money hasn't been burned yet, so it may take a while. But when your mortgage payment is due, you can't take a $2,000 Tyler Herro rookie to the bank, even in Miami.


Panini is responding to demand by increasing product lines rather than print run on specific products. I think they are smart enough to realize they would be sabotaging themselves in the long run by jacking up print runs in the short term. Let’s hope I’m right [emoji23]


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[karkinos]

prices will go up regardless

the boxbreakers really have generated an interest and market and possibly an addicted audience that will constantly consume to deplete supply and increase demand.

[brothertona]

They'll just create a retail version of Optic and Prizm that has absolutely no numbered cards so they can just print it non-stop.

[brothertona]

How many posts this year have been I picked up 1000 plus in Prizm, or 50 blasters and 3 full cello boxes - the distributors have made a fortune and as long as people blame the breakers they can continue to mark everything up this leads to more people clearing retail shelves and more product being absolutely non-existent.

prices will go up regardless

the boxbreakers really have generated an interest and market and possibly an addicted audience that will constantly consume to deplete supply and increase demand.

[ninjacookies]

2020 Card Market ---> post- 2014 Crypto.


Simple youtube cues with channel increases and viewcount #'s tell the story.


Kards are now becoming mainstream. Before, the all too easy layman's narrative was 't206 wagner or get a real job, pal.' Now people see you can make a borderline doctors salary slanging plastic encased stacks of JJJ bass and sealed retail blasters.

More people than ever are strung out for a stay-at-home side hustle since they're out of work with a ton of idle downtime and desperate to keep the 2019 Camry in the front yard and not on Dog The Bountyhunter's flatbed.


It's all cycles though. Sports kards are not some magical investment vehicle immune to market rules. Enjoy it while it lasts, my fellow investorbois.

[brothertona]

2021 has one of the best draft classes in recent memory with multiple super high-end prospects it's not going to get any better.

[mindcycle]

2020 Card Market ---> post- 2014 Crypto.


Simple youtube cues with channel increases and viewcount #'s tell the story.


Kards are now becoming mainstream. Before, the all too easy layman's narrative was 't206 wagner or get a real job, pal.' Now people see you can make a borderline doctors salary slanging plastic encased stacks of JJJ bass and sealed retail blasters.

More people than ever are strung out for a stay-at-home side hustle since they're out of work with a ton of idle downtime and desperate to keep the 2019 Camry in the front yard and not on Dog The Bountyhunter's flatbed.


It's all cycles though. Sports kards are not some magical investment vehicle immune to market rules. Enjoy it while it lasts, my fellow investorbois.

Better stack up on 10x loupes and turtle wax. We got a another covid outbreak coming in the fall and investorbois are gonna be out on the prowl.

[Justin7]

2020 Card Market ---> post- 2014 Crypto.


Simple youtube cues with channel increases and viewcount #'s tell the story.


Kards are now becoming mainstream. Before, the all too easy layman's narrative was 't206 wagner or get a real job, pal.' Now people see you can make a borderline doctors salary slanging plastic encased stacks of JJJ bass and sealed retail blasters.

More people than ever are strung out for a stay-at-home side hustle since they're out of work with a ton of idle downtime and desperate to keep the 2019 Camry in the front yard and not on Dog The Bountyhunter's flatbed.


It's all cycles though. Sports kards are not some magical investment vehicle immune to market rules. Enjoy it while it lasts, my fellow investorbois.

2014 crypto? So you're saying a card worth $800 today will be worth $19,000 in 3 years? Time to liquidate my 401k.

[ninjacookies]

Better stack up on 10x loupes and turtle wax. We got a another another covid outbreak coming in the fall and investorbois are gonna be out on the prowl.


Poorboi here. Will a reversed pair of hunting binoculars and my grandmother's dentu-cream suffice? Gets the scratches out of my vintage 2pac cd's perfectly...can't see why it wouldn't work on these Jarred Vanderbilt bass.

2014 crypto? So you're saying a card worth $800 today will be worth $19,000 in 3 years? Time to liquidate my 401k.

https://i.imgur.com/FATeJJQ.jpg

They laugh now....but...

[Akphillips86]

Haha I wonder how many people have wrecked PSA 9s trying to get a 10 by doctoring them with household cleaners. It’s truly a sad world we live in.

I don’t think crypto vs cards is quite a fair comparison though however. People get emotionally attached to cards, love the way a certain insert looks, follow the sport, root for players, etc. There’s a lot of intangible factors that go into the hobby that aren’t purely logical. It often defies basic economic principles. I think it’s illogical nature is what makes the card market so entertaining and so dang hard to predict.


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[smalltown]

no "vets" I know of are actually pulling profits out

I think you might be wrong here based on a lot of guys i'm talking to. While many are just reinvesting* a lot are using the money for real world stuff too. I just paid off a vehicle, bought my wife some things and bought a bunch of stuff for my farm with profit. I know another guy who bought an engagement ring. And another still who's stockpiling for a house down payment. As the great Kenny Rogers once said, "Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run."

Point being I don't think all this new money will stick around. SOme will and that's good. But i think much of it is just here for the "Gold Rush" period.

*I'm consolidating some cards too

[ninjacookies]

I was mainly comparing the popularity trajectory of them as financial vehicles. It wasn't until 2014 that crypto started really gaining traction on social media and mainstream publication as a legit money making opportunity that could be here to stay.


I agree there's other factors that go into cards such as emotional attachment to players/teams. However, most of crypto (alts) is based on illogical factors and blind, cult-like faith in failed or soon to be failed projects that have been doomed for months if not years. There's a very real cult-like mentality that exists across both spectrums.

I think the same basic underlying principles rule both when it comes to the unproven talents/coins...a false sense of security and optimism swayed by economic holdings, and fomo based off illogical price movements.

Let's face it...neither have intrinsic value. Both are as speculative as it gets. whether you're putting your faith in a player's future improvement, or a dev team's ability to evolve their tech and gain mass adoption.

[TSonn]

Thanks everyone! Definitely a lot of great comments.

Questions for specific folks:

TSonn: When do you see the new money/people leaving the hobby?


Guys like me who've re-found the card industry after years and now have disposable income will probably be hooked for a long time - it's gambling AND nostalgia. Tough to break either of those things. Could dwindle off gradually with multiple years of bad draft classes (though guys like Luka/Trae/Zion hitting their primes may keep the hobby strong regardless of draft class talent).

As for the big investor new money... no idea! Probably after a dip and then rise - they'll sell on the rise to get out. But my assumption is the big investor money is in the big time cards ($10k+ MJs, LeBrons, etc) that are out of reach for most of the average collectors. Selling those to the "smaller" guys probably won't hurt the whole market that much.

[smalltown]

putting your faith in a player's future improvement, or a dev team's ability to evolve their tech and gain mass adoption.

I think a lot of the new money is actually putting their faith in "influencers" and their knowledge or more often lack of knowledge of those things. That's where this gets even messier.

[TSonn]

I think you might be wrong here based on a lot of guys i'm talking to. While many are just reinvesting* a lot are using the money for real world stuff too. I just paid off a vehicle, bought my wife some things and bought a bunch of stuff for my farm with profit. I know another guy who bought an engagement ring. And another still who's stockpiling for a house down payment. As the great Kenny Rogers once said, "Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run."

Point being I don't think all this new money will stick around. SOme will and that's good. But i think much of it is just here for the "Gold Rush" period.

*I'm consolidating some cards too

I sold a bunch of Lukas back in the fall and bought a car. Then I sold a bunch to make upgrades to my house.

But I've definitely put most of that money back in since.

[ninjacookies]

I think a lot of the new money is actually putting their faith in "influencers" and their knowledge or more often lack of knowledge of those things. That's where this gets even messier.

That's a very solid point. And funnily enough, that's where crypto's been the past few years. Dudes like Tone Vays, John McAfee, and Craig Wright could be considered the VD's and Gary Vee's of the magical internet money world.

[IceTrae11]

I am fortunate to be able to keep working through all of this and the several thousands I would have spent attending Hawks/Braves games is going towards cards mostly. Gotta keep my mind on something

[brothertona]

Yeah I've definitely lucked up in having a stable job as well. I've bought into more breaks lately as outside of baseball I haven't been able to find anything. Unfortunately Atlanta is such a wasteland for hot products.

[Akphillips86]

I was mainly comparing the popularity trajectory of them as financial vehicles. It wasn't until 2014 that crypto started really gaining traction on social media and mainstream publication as a legit money making opportunity that could be here to stay.


I agree there's other factors that go into cards such as emotional attachment to players/teams. However, most of crypto (alts) is based on illogical factors and blind, cult-like faith in failed or soon to be failed projects that have been doomed for months if not years. There's a very real cult-like mentality that exists across both spectrums.

I think the same basic underlying principles rule both when it comes to the unproven talents/coins...a false sense of security and optimism swayed by economic holdings, and fomo based off illogical price movements.

Let's face it...neither have intrinsic value. Both are as speculative as it gets. whether you're putting your faith in a player's future improvement, or a dev team's ability to evolve their tech and gain mass adoption.


Good perspective. The trajectory has been rather meteoric. I think a lot of it has to do with a large portion of a generation returning to the hobby they loved as a kid, but with a lot more disposable income (my story). I think the market will have corrections, but I don’t think it’s ever going to come tumbling down.

I started out wanting to build a legacy collection for my kids, but cards quickly became an enjoyable way for me to create funds to help my wife fix up our house we conveniently bought right before COVID. Quarantine has consisted of screaming toddlers, refinishing decks, incessantly painting, and patching drywall. As you may imagine, cards have been my happy place [emoji23]

The people coming in with a mercenary mind set will be the ones who will wake up disappointed one day as they are just playing follow the leader, have no imagination, and have no genuine feel for the hobby in a long term sense. I feel for them in a way as their only joy will be finding boxes of retail at Target and mindlessly flipping base cards people have seen a million times.

I think cards have a real future, but I’m not basing that future on a stack of Devin Booker slabs [emoji6] I know I enjoy the hobby way too much to duck out regardless of what direction the market takes. It may be the height of illogical, but I’m a sucker for shiny cardboard with pictures of athletes on them till the day I die haha.


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[RadicalAlmond]

I mean with no sports... cards is kind of thee sport lol

[mossoholic]

I just want to touch on the retail part. The bottom end retail stuff like Score etc. all the stuff you normally see forever on the shelf has been disapearing near me. I honestly just thought it was people who like to rip or even kids but I saw on twitter a guy ask why he can't flip his 2020 Score football blaster for $35. He honestly just heard blasters are buy for $20 sell for $35 make money, he had no idea. Obviously this is bad for the hobby overall as all this low end stuff that can get people into the hobby is being sucked up by people who have no idea what they are doing.

I also saw someone mention increaseing the price for retail, didn't Panini do that with Mosaic? A retail mega at Walmart went up to $60, all that happened was the resale went up. I don't think a price bump does anything but increase the price they are on the secondary market when the show up. Even if you limit retail buys like some stores have people are going to find ways around it.

I couldn't even tell you how much time and gas I've wasted going to Walmarts to find nothing since Optic Basketball started. Since the Targets around me that have set limits started limits in June I've been able to get Mosaic and Bowman Mega boxes I think pretty much every time. If every Walmart and every Target within a 90 minute radius of me started the same type of limits like some Targets have I would feel like I hit the lottery.

Also, if you've been going to Targets with limits, you probably know there is a very easy way to enforce limits. At least as long as the employees aren't buying them.

[GeechQuest]

Inevitably the price being paid on bass cards will crater. Right now dudes are just moving from one hyped up bass card to the next. The run up on certain cards cascaded into a run up on similar cards from guys who shouldn’t have seen the run up but speculators gonna speculate.

Once games resume (whenever that is) we will see a drop of some kind on these speculated players. Happens every year in the offseason, which is basically what we’re seeing right now.

I don’t think we ever get back to 2016 prices or anything like that, but the vast majority of these speculative cards will hold little to no value. As those prices drop people will sell off and put them into the better cards of proven players.

It’s so complex and there are so many variables at play it’s hard to really know which way this goes. We know that EVERY player can’t have $100 base Prizm, so that’s got to give. If you haven’t been consolidating common cards that have spiked, yikes.

I remember last season when Luka Silvers were going for the same amount, and in some instances more than, his color Prizms. This was told to many on the board to forgo the Silver premium and buy the color. Not that the Silver hasn’t grown in value, but nowhere close to the rise in Luka color.

The same principle will apply years from now, and were already sort of seeing it. Look at the prices on the Color Blasts. They’re gorgeous and rare, but they’re not the rarest cards produced and their beauty is matched elsewhere. You’re seeing where the ceiling for rare cards is at, and there are PLENTY of them to be had.

When the inevitable bass dip occurs, that money will be recycled into rare cards and I have a feeling those will go through the roof. That’s always been the case, just the finite money supply hasn’t caught on to that yet with everybody wanting to get on the latest bass card spike.

[RogerGodahell]

Luka, Zion Giannis and LeBron are carrying this market. Pretty much all of this revolves mostly around them guys. As long as they keep playing well i think this can sustain for awhile. Obviously it can't go up forever at this pace. Breakers, Distributors, Panini, LCS, resellers, they were all fishing for the top and how far they could push things. Panini pretty much found it with NT so at least we know where that is. That's the upper boundaries right now. I don't see 20-21 class matching either of the past 2 drafts but i don't see that tanking the market either. Hopefully it just cools things off a bit and stabilizes it. I think that would be good.

[brothertona]

The 2021 Draft has Mobley, Green, and Cunningham - any one of the three would likely be the #1 pick this year. They are prospects that will move product. The 2020 Draft only really has Lamelo which is why he's being pushed so heavily.

[mc1]

I also saw someone mention increaseing the price for retail, didn't Panini do that with Mosaic? A retail mega at Walmart went up to $60, all that happened was the resale went up. I don't think a price bump does anything but increase the price they are on the secondary market when the show up. Even if you limit retail buys like some stores have people are going to find ways around it.

Well, Mosaic Megas have 80 cards. Optic have 42 and Prizm is like 40.

Not a direct comparison.

[Akphillips86]

The 2021 Draft has Mobley, Green, and Cunningham - any one of the three would likely be the #1 pick this year. They are prospects that will move product. The 2020 Draft only really has Lamelo which is why he's being pushed so heavily.


Only one I’m really into on the 2020 draft is Obi Toppin. Dude can ball.


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[brothertona]

Only one I’m really into on the 2020 draft is Obi Toppin. Dude can ball.


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Toppin reminds me a lot of John Collins which if he turned into that then that's a fantastic outcome.


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[ninjacookies]

Good perspective. The trajectory has been rather meteoric. I think a lot of it has to do with a large portion of a generation returning to the hobby they loved as a kid, but with a lot more disposable income (my story). I think the market will have corrections, but I don’t think it’s ever going to come tumbling down.

I started out wanting to build a legacy collection for my kids, but cards quickly became an enjoyable way for me to create funds to help my wife fix up our house we conveniently bought right before COVID. Quarantine has consisted of screaming toddlers, refinishing decks, incessantly painting, and patching drywall. As you may imagine, cards have been my happy place [emoji23]

The people coming in with a mercenary mind set will be the ones who will wake up disappointed one day as they are just playing follow the leader, have no imagination, and have no genuine feel for the hobby in a long term sense. I feel for them in a way as their only joy will be finding boxes of retail at Target and mindlessly flipping base cards people have seen a million times.

I think cards have a real future, but I’m not basing that future on a stack of Devin Booker slabs [emoji6] I know I enjoy the hobby way too much to duck out regardless of what direction the market takes. It may be the height of illogical, but I’m a sucker for shiny cardboard with pictures of athletes on them till the day I die haha.


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You ain't lyin, brother.

Collect what/who you enjoy and you never lose. A subsequent price rise in your portfolio is just icing on the cake.

[theleica]

I think you might be wrong here based on a lot of guys i'm talking to. While many are just reinvesting* a lot are using the money for real world stuff too. I just paid off a vehicle, bought my wife some things and bought a bunch of stuff for my farm with profit. I know another guy who bought an engagement ring. And another still who's stockpiling for a house down payment. As the great Kenny Rogers once said, "Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run."

Point being I don't think all this new money will stick around. SOme will and that's good. But i think much of it is just here for the "Gold Rush" period.

*I'm consolidating some cards too


I’m with you here 100%. Never in my wildest dreams did I think cards would be an avenue for so many wonderful things in life.

I got a nice engagement ring with cards last year. Now I am getting all my ducks in a row to begin selling off cards for a down payment on a house, which should happen in next few months. Funny part is the value on cards have gone up so much that I won’t even come close to cashing out.

Looking into investment properties, which if all goes right happens early next year. Of course paid for by cards.

And I should mention, this is all without me working since March because of Covid. Sometimes the biggest curses are blessings in disguise.


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[DajuanWagner]

2014 crypto? So you're saying a card worth $800 today will be worth $19,000 in 3 years? Time to liquidate my 401k.



No, what he is saying is that cards worth pennies in 2014 is worth thousands of doll hairs today......

[thelistofjustin]

I predict the vultures by today’s standards get priced out and start threads about the new vultures ruining things and how this used to be a hobby.

Spot on

[thelistofjustin]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

Trump is that you?

[senorlaverga]

The corona situation is definitely improving. Significantly more testing - i.e. 6x nationally - is why cases are rising. Virtually every area the infection rate is slowing.

E.g. Nevada shows a 320% rise in cases but a 520% rise in testing according to CNBC today. The infection rate is dropping.

Is your SN “Go Miami Go” or “Go Mi Amigo”?

[Arianny_Fan]

I'm married and the wife handles the finances so I see none of the stimulus check. Lol.

[Vinny1984]

I don’t know about a jump but I believe that trends will continue to rise. Whether you like it or not, cards have become the stock market. I personally love it. It’s addicting and can be very profitable. But like the stock market, if you don’t do your research you can lose life altering amounts of money. The research is what I find most addicting.

The majority of the new people coming in a year ago were the 35-40 year olds that now have money. This has trickled down to early 20s due to the amount of money that can be made. When I grew up in the 90’s, it was a dead set idea that you had to go work for “the man” at a job you were miserable at. “Company loyalty”. This just isn’t the case anymore. There are so many different avenues to make money without the stress of a demanding job. You are seeing it now breeding in the sports collectible market. Entrepreneurship is on the rise and this is no different.

I do worry about the long term future. A year ago, you could have put $1000 into Luka rookies. Now it’s worth $10000. I don’t think the same will be said in 10 years. I think the floor will rise at a rate that the ceilings can’t sustain. Even if I’m wrong, I’ll be around to see it unfold.

[eastbayak]

I just want to touch on the retail part. The bottom end retail stuff like Score etc. all the stuff you normally see forever on the shelf has been disapearing near me. I honestly just thought it was people who like to rip or even kids but I saw on twitter a guy ask why he can't flip his 2020 Score football blaster for $35. He honestly just heard blasters are buy for $20 sell for $35 make money, he had no idea. Obviously this is bad for the hobby overall as all this low end stuff that can get people into the hobby is being sucked up by people who have no idea what they are doing.

I also saw someone mention increaseing the price for retail, didn't Panini do that with Mosaic? A retail mega at Walmart went up to $60, all that happened was the resale went up. I don't think a price bump does anything but increase the price they are on the secondary market when the show up. Even if you limit retail buys like some stores have people are going to find ways around it.

This has crossed my mind too. Not the part about retail products being sucked up by people who have no idea what they're doing but the impact (on the hobby) where retail products aren't accessible. My understanding is that, for this hobby to have a "real" future, it needs to be accessible to children. Some children are born into fortunate circumstances but that's not the case for many. Will kids ever have a shot at a $20 basketball blaster in the future? If not, how will they get to experience the hobby (excluding those who experience it through their parents)?

I think things will continue to trend selectively upward. Here’s my predictions, some are bold, some are no brainers, some are shots in the dark, but hey here goes...

1. I think the growth of graded base will slow dramatically, but only because it increased almost exponentially. Prices won’t continue into the stratosphere.

2. The following will always be important in the modern market: A player’s first Prizm and Optic, and the first Prizm and Optic sets. Optic will also start to narrow the gap on Prizm.

3. Revolution will continue to grow in popularity.

4. Low serial #’d cards are going to see much higher premiums than they currently command as discerning collectors seek out more scarcity.

5. Inserts are going to experience a Renaissance and Panini will start adding a better variety of scarce inserts (like they do in Court Kings) across their product lines.

6. Kinda no brainer, but 2nd and 3rd tier players will lose a lot of their accumulated hype value when they don’t show gains the next year. The money is going to flow back to the megastars and the latest up and comers.

7. BGS true gems are going to close SOME of the gap on PSA 10. I think it’s just a matter of time before people will get fed up with the price disparity and refuse to pay such a high premium for a card that’s likely in the same condition.

8. Sticker autos are going to continue to trend downward and on card is going to soar.

9. Retail goes immediately behind the counter when it is stocked and purchase limits will be fixed. Prices will also be much higher.

10. Lastly, and most importantly, the number of new basketball collectors entering the hobby is going to outpace the growth of any other sport, thus leading to a stronger, more vibrant basketball market. COVID only got more people involved in the hobby, not less, regardless of whether another game is played this season or not.

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I agree with many (if not all) of your points! I bolded the ones that especially hit home to me. I agree with you that first-year standalone products that have an established following will be most demanded in the modern market and that low serial-numbered cards will realize greater appreciation. Not only do I see BGS true gems closing the gap on PSA 10s but I also see them coming down some (e.g., the gap closing between them and PSA/BGS 9s).

If you had to guess, how long do you think the number of new basketball collectors will outpace the growth of other sports? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? For the rest of our lives?

I didn't think the uptrend would come this far, especially not at this level of pricing, and yet here we are. I'm still spending a ton, but trying to be smart about what I'm putting money into. For example, buying wax but of things that are relatively underpriced If Spectra / Obsidian / latest flavor of the week are growing to 6x or 8x SRP, then I go back to revisit Optic and Mosaic. If PSA 10s are overbought and start hitting 4x PSA9, I check those out

I know there are plenty of theories about what caused the bubble, and of course they're all factors, you just have to think about them separately when projecting the future market

Economic factors


Stimulus checks: I think the impact of these are overblown. It pretty much buys you 2 nice cards, or a handful of boxes of wax at this point, and that's if you blow the entire thing on cards. What we've seen in this market is so many multiples of this I can't imagine these one time checks made that much of an impact

Alternative / diversifying investing: I think this money is real and here to stay. However, most people who have this money are also not stupid. I would think the pricing of things like Prizm Hobby, certain FOTL, maybe NT, are where people put their money, because the assumption is that these will still be in demand 5 years from now. Obsidian FOTL shiny blah blah with $500 buy in? Might not appreciate or even maintain pricing because there's no demand driving it, and all upside is already priced in.

Lack of live entertainment: All the money we would be dropping on going to games, or on beer and hot wings at the local sports bar while watching sports, is now being put into cards and breaks. I suspect when things come back to normal, some of this money will go back to the traditional avenues, but I also think that introducing new people to these things will cause some people & their money to stay (albeit in smaller quantities)


New people


"I was a collector as a kid, now I'm an adult with disposable income" - count me in this group. We're here to stay.

Shoe / Funk flippers, Gary V lemmings, social media types: this is what scares me. People jumping in head first because they heard everyone is making money hand over fist and want in on the action, but have zero knowledge or context. Lots of these people will lose their shirts, and will leave just as quickly as they came. Will this cause the market to tank? Not necessarily. Their money is already here, being recycled around since no "vets" I know of are actually pulling profits out but just re-investing into different cards. The one scenario where things could semi-crash is if people are over-leveraging themselves thinking that this new money supply is endless. Just don't be the last one holding the hot bag of poop.

Gamblers: we know they love sports, and don't mind dropping thousands of dollars on sports. They'll probably resume gambling and DFS once sports resume, but I think the thrill of rips / breaks is definitely catching on with these types (I sort of fit in here too), which will keep wax in demand and the prices high



sorry that was kind of a lot, I could go on forever and love these types of discussions though. very interested in what others think and if I missed any groups

Absolutely agree with you. If random products/cards are getting crazy amounts of love, I often look at "substitutes" (preferably other respectable products/cards) and compare/contrast. If the latter seems undervalued, I pull the trigger. I try to avoid the overly hyped stuff unless I can get it for what seems to be a steal or significant discount.

Getting four PSA 9s versus 1 PSA 10 sounds like a smart decision too IMO. I don't place much of a premium on subjectively graded cards, especially after seeing how many 9s have crossed to 9.5s/10s and knowing that there's a greater risk of alteration with 9.5s/10s.

Personally, I don't think the impact of stimulus checks are overblown (although it might not have the level of impact I originally assumed haha). With that said, I do agree with you about alternative/diversifying investing and lack of live entertainment being significant contributors to where we're currently at. Regarding the former, it seems to becoming more frequent that I've noticed new members in FB looking to $buy 5-20k worth of cards like it's nothing (I've randomly checked some profiles and noticed finance backgrounds too haha).

Long-term, I don't see the shoe/funk flippers sticking around because the card market won't uptrend forever. Some will get burnt whereas others will notice that it's no longer worth their time/energy and identify another hobby that offers better profit margins via flips. I'm curious to see how things unfold once a vaccine is readily available.

I think you might be wrong here based on a lot of guys i'm talking to. While many are just reinvesting* a lot are using the money for real world stuff too. I just paid off a vehicle, bought my wife some things and bought a bunch of stuff for my farm with profit. I know another guy who bought an engagement ring. And another still who's stockpiling for a house down payment. As the great Kenny Rogers once said, "Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run."

Point being I don't think all this new money will stick around. SOme will and that's good. But i think much of it is just here for the "Gold Rush" period.

*I'm consolidating some cards too

I'm actually at a crossroads with this. As much as I love my cards, they've appreciated more than I could've imagined. My wife and I originally planned to buy a home within the next 8 years (we live in CA so home prices are quite pricey and we're not making that IT/physician/engineer money either haha), but because of how my cards have appreciated, we could hop on the fast track if I were to unload some/all of them.

At the same time, I sold my "holy grail" last summer to pay off my graduate student loans when I lost my job and that was truly a hard thing to do. It's crazy how something so materialistic can impact someone but I'd be lying if I said I didn't miss that card.

But yeah, I'll most likely sell a couple to help finance a down payment but it's hard to choose which one(s) and when. I've also thought about selling a highly demanded one (LeBron TC Black Ref RC), setting aside most of the post-fee sales $ towards house down payment (and 2020 taxes), and then picking up 1-3 "undervalued" LeBron RCs.

Guys like me who've re-found the card industry after years and now have disposable income will probably be hooked for a long time - it's gambling AND nostalgia. Tough to break either of those things. Could dwindle off gradually with multiple years of bad draft classes (though guys like Luka/Trae/Zion hitting their primes may keep the hobby strong regardless of draft class talent).

As for the big investor new money... no idea! Probably after a dip and then rise - they'll sell on the rise to get out. But my assumption is the big investor money is in the big time cards ($10k+ MJs, LeBrons, etc) that are out of reach for most of the average collectors. Selling those to the "smaller" guys probably won't hurt the whole market that much.

Yeah, nostalgia is real. Your first sentence also describes me (returned to the hobby after landing my first real job and having some disposable income to play with).

You're probably right about the big $ investors too. They're probably putting most of their money into less risky plays (MJ, LeBron, Kobe, etc) and some of their money into speculative plays (Luka, Zion, Tatum, etc). Understanding that there's significantly more volatility with the latter, and not as liquid as a stock ticker, probably being a little more risk-averse with their approach compared to the traditional stock market.