Nolan Arenado is having the best defensive season in MLB history

[rseve43]

Nolan Arenado currently has 11 Defensive Runs Saved, which puts him on pace for 45 for a full season. The record is 40 (Andrelton Simmons, 2017).


Translation: Nolan Arenado is pacing to have the best defensive season of all time at any position, based on DRS.


No one talks about defense, but this is absolutely incredible. Shame we won't get to see it played out over 162 this year.


For context, the next closest player has 9 DRS, and the next closest infielder has 5 DRS. Matt Chapman currently has 3 DRS.

[rman112]

Nolan Arenado currently has 11 Defensive Runs Saved, which puts him on pace for 45 for a full season. The record is 40 (Andrelton Simmons, 2017).


Translation: Nolan Arenado is pacing to have the best defensive season of all time at any position, based on DRS.


No one talks about defense, but this is absolutely incredible. Shame we won't get to see it played out over 162 this year.


For context, the next closest player has 9 DRS, and the next closest infielder has 5 DRS. Matt Chapman currently has 3 DRS.

Part of the reason is because it's so hard to measure. Not saying Arenado isn't awesome, though.

[speedyjg13]

too bad it will only be 60 games. Would've been nice to see a full season

[Hollywood42]

Agreed. There's been a few new stats over the past 10 years that do a bit better like DRS and UZR but it's still really hard to quantify. I'd love to see some more new ones come out that continue to up the bar. With all the Statcast measurements that are out there now, I'm sure they could do things like time how long it takes a fielder to react to a play, calculate the most efficient route and compare to the actual route, etc etc. So many possibilities. But it is all fairly abstract, too. Looking forward to seeing what's next

Crazy stat though, OP. The way Arenado makes plays like this one look effortless is just crazy- https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1300633888608399360

Part of the reason is because it's so hard to measure. Not saying Arenado isn't awesome, though.

[rngrdanny22]

Arenado is a beast on defense. His batting this year is odd though. Career low K-rate and career low BABIP.

[BBases31]

Agreed. There's been a few new stats over the past 10 years that do a bit better like DRS and UZR but it's still really hard to quantify. I'd love to see some more new ones come out that continue to up the bar. With all the Statcast measurements that are out there now, I'm sure they could do things like time how long it takes a fielder to react to a play, calculate the most efficient route and compare to the actual route, etc etc. So many possibilities. But it is all fairly abstract, too. Looking forward to seeing what's next

Crazy stat though, OP. The way Arenado makes plays like this one look effortless is just crazy- https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1300633888608399360

Statcast Outs Above Average is the current gold standard. Arenado is in 5th at 16 this season but 3B get less chances to run up their OAA numbers than CFs or SSs which are the positions ahead of him.

[BBases31]

Arenado is a beast on defense. His batting this year is odd though. Career low K-rate and career low BABIP.

Don't forget that career low avg Exit Velocity, career low xwOBA by a mile, career low Hard Hit %, career low Barrel %

[sportzluvr1]

His defensive wizardry has mostly to do with that thin Colorado air.

[rngrdanny22]

Don't forget that career low avg Exit Velocity, career low xwOBA by a mile, career low Hard Hit %, career low Barrel %


Small sample size. Just a week or two ago, his numbers in those metrics were near career highs.


His defensive wizardry has mostly to do with that thin Colorado air.


Exactly.

[BBases31]

Small sample size.

So when the numbers are good for him, it's good, but when they're bad it's a small sample size. Alrighty

Just a week or two ago, his numbers in those metrics were near career highs.

So you complain about the sample size of the season thus far, then use an even tinier sample size within that data set to dismiss the full data set. Those are some A+ mental gymnastics

[rngrdanny22]

So when the numbers are good for him, it's good, but when they're bad it's a small sample size. Alrighty



So you complain about the sample size of the season thus far, then use an even tinier sample size within that data set to dismiss the full data set. Those are some A+ mental gymnastics



Hey hotshot, all I originally said was that his BABIP was low and his K-rate was low. Where the hell are you getting that I'm dismissing the full data set? His K-rate and BABIP have been down all year, while the metrics you mentioned have been below career averages for the last two weeks.

All I was saying is that the entire season is a small sample so far. In fact, he hasn't barreled a ball in like 10 games yet his average has risen considerably over that time.

[mfw13]

Not surprising, since he's always been considered to be a Brooks Robinson/Adrian Beltre level defensive 3rd baseman.

[rseve43]

His defensive wizardry has mostly to do with that thin Colorado air.

I was waiting for someone to say it. 10 points to Gryffindor.

[rseve43]

Statcast Outs Above Average is the current gold standard. Arenado is in 5th at 16 this season but 3B get less chances to run up their OAA numbers than CFs or SSs which are the positions ahead of him.

I looked and couldn’t find 2020’s version of this and based on what you describe here, I think you’re looking at the 2019 version.

If you have a link for this year could you share? I’d love to see the current rankings.

[BBases31]

Hey hotshot, all I originally said was that his BABIP was low and his K-rate was low. Where the hell are you getting that I'm dismissing the full data set? His K-rate and BABIP have been down all year, while the metrics you mentioned have been below career averages for the last two weeks.

So I checked, because it seemed implausible that only the last two weeks all of those were low enough to force a crater in the season numbers. Let's go to the scoreboard!

Your claim:

Small sample size. Just a week or two ago, his numbers in those metrics were near career highs.

Fact check: False!

Reality: From the start of the season until August 17th Arenado's xwOBA was .345. Career high? Lol. It was his lowest since his rookie season in which he had a .344 xwOBA

Average Exit Velocity?

Fact check: False again!

7/23-8/17 EV: 87.6. Guess what? A career low! And he has a current full season EV of 87.5


All I was saying is that the entire season is a small sample so far. In fact, he hasn't barreled a ball in like 10 games yet his average has risen considerably over that time.

Fact check: False!

I love Arenado and he is the last person you need to worry about starting a permanent decline. He's a stud and he always plays hard. But you're just making stuff up dude :)

[rngrdanny22]

So I checked, because it seemed implausible that only the last two weeks all of those were low enough to force a crater in the season numbers. Let's go to the scoreboard!

Your claim:



Fact check: False!

Reality: From the start of the season until August 17th Arenado's xwOBA was .345. Career high? Lol. It was his lowest since his rookie season in which he had a .344 xwOBA

Average Exit Velocity?

Fact check: False again!

7/23-8/17 EV: 87.6. Guess what? A career low! And he has a current full season EV of 87.5




Fact check: False!

I love Arenado and he is the last person you need to worry about. He's a stud and he always plays hard. But you're just making stuff up dude :)


Congrats! You win!

[BBases31]

I looked and couldn’t find 2020’s version of this and based on what you describe here, I think you’re looking at the 2019 version.

If you have a link for this year could you share? I’d love to see the current rankings.

You're right, i just clicked on the OAA leaderboard and didn't realize they don't even have one for 2020 yet.

[BBases31]

Congrats! You win!

Not yet tired of winning!

[hairysasquatch]

Raises the question of whether 2020 stats can/should/will be projected out from 60 game sample to 162 game regular season.

[rman112]

Raises the question of whether 2020 stats can/should/will be projected out from 60 game sample to 162 game regular season.

Of course they can't. It seems like half the league is on a 45 HR pace.

[rseve43]

Raises the question of whether 2020 stats can/should/will be projected out from 60 game sample to 162 game regular season.

Gotta actually do it over the full season.

The crazy thing is that in 2019, only 19 players (Arenado among them) posted full seasons of better than 11 DRS. Arenado has done it in 33 games this year.

Of course they can't. It seems like half the league is on a 45 HR pace.

Like Voit and Wil Myers for MVP!

[pewe]

Nolan Arenado currently has 11 Defensive Runs Saved, which puts him on pace for 45 for a full season. The record is 40 (Andrelton Simmons, 2017).


Translation: Nolan Arenado is pacing to have the best defensive season of all time at any position, based on DRS.


No one talks about defense, but this is absolutely incredible. Shame we won't get to see it played out over 162 this year.


For context, the next closest player has 9 DRS, and the next closest infielder has 5 DRS. Matt Chapman currently has 3 DRS.


Using UZR or Fangraphs’ “Def”, Chapman is still beating him on a per-plays basis. Arenado is just “lucky” to have had more fielding chances, but on a per-fielding chance basis Chapman continues to be the pace setter.


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[kkart]

His defensive wizardry has mostly to do with that thin Colorado air.

Plot twist ---

Most great players choke here in Denver because they can't breathe.

[rseve43]

Using UZR or Fangraphs’ “Def”, Chapman is still beating him on a per-plays basis. Arenado is just “lucky” to have had more fielding chances, but on a per-fielding chance basis Chapman continues to be the pace setter.


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Arenado’s Range Runs are over 2x higher than Chapman, so there’s really nothing lucky about it. He’s getting to more balls than Chapman is, which leads to more plays; and that’s what leads to Arenado having better defensive metrics across the board than Chapman right now.

Also I’m not sure I’ve seen someone dig so hard to find a number that supports the argument Their trying to make lol. “Def per play” and “UZR per play” are not actual stats, and Arenado’s UZR/150 is 19.2 while Chapman’s is 9.7, so that pretty bluntly disproves what you’re trying to claim here as well.

All that being said, Chapman is incredible on defense too, no debate there and I’ve been a big supporter of his for a couple years now. It’s ok to give credit where credit is due though and simply acknowledge and enjoy when someone is doing what Arenado has done so far this year.

[BonVoyage]

Nolan Arenado currently has 11 Defensive Runs Saved, which puts him on pace for 45 for a full season. The record is 40 (Andrelton Simmons, 2017).
Prime Andrelton, so good.


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[pewe]

Arenado’s Range Runs are over 2x higher than Chapman, so there’s really nothing lucky about it. He’s getting to more balls than Chapman is, which leads to more plays; and that’s what leads to Arenado having better defensive metrics across the board than Chapman right now.

Also I’m not sure I’ve seen someone dig so hard to find a number that supports the argument Their trying to make lol. “Def per play” and “UZR per play” are not actual stats, and Arenado’s UZR/150 is 19.2 while Chapman’s is 9.7, so that pretty bluntly disproves what you’re trying to claim here as well.

All that being said, Chapman is incredible on defense too, no debate there and I’ve been a big supporter of his for a couple years now. It’s ok to give credit where credit is due though and simply acknowledge and enjoy when someone is doing what Arenado has done so far this year.


You got me re: uzr/150... I thought that stat was as simple as 150/ (innings/9) * UZR... but if so Chapman would be at 23 UZR/150. I think either I don’t get how UZR/150 is calculated or there is an error on Fangraphs.

Either way there isn’t any digging... it’s just basic stats... Chapman has played fewer innings... and Arenado is benefited by a worse pitching core that has given up ~20% more balls in play (not HR) than the Athletics.

Range isn’t the difference... it’s just opportunities to even make a play.

If you have more innings and your pitchers let more balls get into play (not HR), then you should put up that proportional more defensive stats.


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[rseve43]

You got me re: uzr/150... I thought that stat was as simple as 150/ (innings/9) * UZR... but if so Chapman would be at 23 UZR/150. I think either I don’t get how UZR/150 is calculated or there is an error on Fangraphs.

Either way there isn’t any digging... it’s just basic stats... Chapman has played fewer innings... and Arenado is benefited by a worse pitching core that has given up ~20% more balls in play (not HR) than the Athletics.

Range isn’t the difference... it’s just opportunities to even make a play.

If you have more innings and your pitchers let more balls get into play (not HR), then you should put up that proportional more defensive stats.


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Range does matter though when we’re talking about number of plays.

Either way, I didn’t post this thread to go super in depth on all defensive metrics. The goal is simply to point out something cool that most people would likely miss if not posted, which is that Arenado is on pace for the greatest defensive season of all time based on DRS.

[pewe]

Range does matter though when we’re talking about number of plays.

Either way, I didn’t post this thread to go super in depth on all defensive metrics. The goal is simply to point out something cool that most people would likely miss if not posted, which is that Arenado is on pace for the greatest defensive season of all time based on DRS.


We should embrace the stats - that is why I really liked your post. We have an opportunity to figure out: is he really better, or is he just opportunistically building stats.

You are of course right that range matters. All I was trying to do is see if when we control for number of innings and balls in play whether he is producing more defensive runs than Chapman. And when normalized for those two things, we find they are about even.

This suggests that if he has better range, it isn’t the source of distinctiveness. It is just being on a team that has poor pitching relative to his defensive competition.


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[texmcpherson]

Holy advanced stats.

[rman112]

Holy advanced stats.

Lol.. way too much.

[pewe]

Lol.. way too much.


Way too much is just right :D


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