Should I sell Feddie Freeman auto rc's Now or wait?

[bethanyb1201]

My ex wife took my collection a few years ago and I never started back again. I have a few cards left. One is a Freddie Freeman topps rc auto /100. Should I sell now or wait?

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[speedyjg13]

Keep it as what wasn't taken from you

[EastonElite]

I'd call than an easy hold.

[cardsin47]

IF ( the big IF ) it’s peaking in value now? ...and you’re not emotionally attached to the card - SELL.
he ( Freeman ) is NOT doing 2 things:

1. Headed for the Hall
2. getting any younger

[tconte]

IF ( the big IF ) it’s peaking in value now? ...and you’re not emotionally attached to the card - SELL.
he ( Freeman ) is NOT doing 2 things:

1. Headed for the Hall
2. Not getting any younger

Sound advice.

Have his cards peaked. Probably not but if you don't care one way or the other
now is a good time to cash in on Freddie Mania!

[Chrisyork33]

As someone that went through a divorce, I say you have to keep it. The card is not about the value of Freddie, but the value you have in yourself to put your life back together.

Respect!

[bbnut]

If your ex really likes Freeman, keep it and remind her that you have it (unless you hid it from her during the divorce). Who's ex takes their baseball cards? Did she collect, too? If not, that's just wrong!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Wrigs37]

Bethanyb is the ex so I’m guessing she used to collect at least. OP you still holdin your 4K worth of Schwarbers??

[unclemonkey]

Is her name Bethany?

You need a new screen name too...

Honestly, I would sell and move onto something new and fresh.

[Lawmaker]

send me what you have PRICES etc. Interested

[Noles939913]

IF ( the big IF ) it’s peaking in value now? ...and you’re not emotionally attached to the card - SELL.
he ( Freeman ) is NOT doing 2 things:

1. Headed for the Hall
2. getting any younger

How can you be so sure of #1?

[cardsin47]

How can you be so sure of #1?

I read his career stats right before making that “claim “
If he’s headed for the Hall, then almost every player who’s really good but not great should be in too —- not enough bricks to make a HOF building that big !

[dhendrix1303]

I am a buyer if you’re selling

[1cleanjeep]

I read his career stats right before making that “claim “
If he’s headed for the Hall, then almost every player who’s really good but not great should be in too —- not enough bricks to make a HOF building that big !

This is the funniest thing I've ever read. 1500 hits in 11 years as a pro, 4 time All Star and as long as he stays healthy should see at least 5-10 more solid years and hopefully multiple all star seasons. I think he has a very good chance at making the HOF. I can think of several really good players that weren't great that's made it to the hof.

[txrngr34]

I read his career stats right before making that “claim “

If he’s headed for the Hall, then almost every player who’s really good but not great should be in too —- not enough bricks to make a HOF building that big !Not saying you're wrong, but have you seen some of the guys enshrined? There are a number of really good, not great guys.

While most HOFers have 7-10 years of top-end production, some of them just had consistent production for 15+ years too.

Steady Freddie simply needs to maintain for another 5 years to garner a real vote percentage within the 10-year eligibility window. He's got a shot still.

He's like Biggio...a guy I really like and respect but not someone I'd consider Hall-worthy.

[cardsin47]

This is the funniest thing I've ever read. 1500 hits in 11 years as a pro, 4 time All Star and as long as he stays healthy should see at least 5-10 more solid years and hopefully multiple all star seasons. I think he has a very good chance at making the HOF. I can think of several really good players that weren't great that's made it to the hof.

Ok - let’s do this ...I’ll meet you back here in 15 years - this thread / this date / this time. Good thing is —- one of Us HAS to be right!

[Chicharito]

This is the funniest thing I've ever read. 1500 hits in 11 years as a pro, 4 time All Star and as long as he stays healthy should see at least 5-10 more solid years and hopefully multiple all star seasons. I think he has a very good chance at making the HOF. I can think of several really good players that weren't great that's made it to the hof.

That means he needs another 11 healthy and solid years to hit 3k hits :coffee::coffee::coffee:

[bethanyb1201]

Bethanyb is the ex so I’m guessing she used to collect at least. OP you still holdin your 4K worth of Schwarbers??

I still have the Schwarbers. I was a Mcwire super collector and she took everything because I wanted them l

[bethanyb1201]

Is her name Bethany?

You need a new screen name too...

Honestly, I would sell and move onto something new and fresh.

Yes it is.. I kept the screen name as this is what my buyers know me as. She didn't collect she just wanted all joy out of my life lol

[bethanyb1201]

I am a buyer if you’re selling

Going to be hard to sell as I don't just want to give them away. I will PM you pics

[Noles939913]

That means he needs another 11 healthy and solid years to hit 3k hits :coffee::coffee::coffee:

He would seem to be a good candidate. He really hasn’t had any injury issues except when he got beaned in the hand and even then he’s played in well over 100 games every year except this season and the year he was called up. He also seems to be getting better.

[1cleanjeep]

That means he needs another 11 healthy and solid years to hit 3k hits :coffee::coffee::coffee:

He doesn't need 3k hits to go into the hof :doh:

[whitmm]

This is the funniest thing I've ever read. 1500 hits in 11 years as a pro, 4 time All Star and as long as he stays healthy should see at least 5-10 more solid years and hopefully multiple all star seasons. I think he has a very good chance at making the HOF. I can think of several really good players that weren't great that's made it to the hof.

9.25 years. Not going to count 24 at-bats as a season. As far as the All-Star appearances, it's a popularity contest and he had to deal with Pujols and Votto in their prime. And we know Cardinals fans will vote up their guys no matter what. I don't think he's a first ballot HOF, but I believe if he continues with this success for 6-7 more years, he's going to get in. He is at roughly 38 WAR, 75 is kind of the mark for being a lock.

[1cleanjeep]

9.25 years. Not going to count 24 at-bats as a season. As far as the All-Star appearances, it's a popularity contest and he had to deal with Pujols and Votto in their prime. And we know Cardinals fans will vote up their guys no matter what. I don't think he's a first ballot HOF, but I believe if he continues with this success for 6-7 more years, he's going to get in. He is at roughly 38 WAR, 75 is kind of the mark for being a lock.

I'm not saying hes a lock in today but to make a statement based on only 11 seasons is pretty dumb. If he was announcing his retirement after this season then I'd definitely agree but you can't ever right someone off as being hofer material unless they are complete crap.

[Triple B]

Dude’s been solid and pretty consistent his whole career and is FINALLY getting some recognition from collectors. I don’t think this is a moment to sell. Prices seem to be trending upwards and if enough attention is given to him, hall of fame predictions aside, he could become the “flavour of the week” and we could see some serious (And long overdue) uptick in his cards.

[ThoseBackPages]

sell and move on for sure

[BBases31]

Dude’s been solid and pretty consistent his whole career and is FINALLY getting some recognition from collectors.

I see people say this alot. He was a consistent 5 WAR 1B with questionable HOF prospects and his BC auto was a $150 card. Why was that kind of profile worth more? He wasn't cheap. He's having the best stretch of 45 games of his career by a mile. Is he peaking at 31? Possibly. But it's probably a bad gamble that he is

[BBases31]

Someone got duped hard on this one. $3000 sale of a fake Freddie superfractor. Even says Original in the listing. Disgusting

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freddie-Freeman-2011-Bowman-Chrome-SUPERFRACTOR-AUTOGRAPH-AUTO-1-1/123475619125?hash=item1cbfb86d35:g:WFAAAOSwEQFZqZ4

Wow the POS that sold it posts regularly here? Seems like it's the same guy: https://www.blowoutforums.com/member.php?u=42881 Seller says Minnesota, same as this profile and his username is the same as the seller's listed domain on that Ebay listong(Hofautorookies.com)

[Noles939913]

I see people say this alot. He was a consistent 5 WAR 1B with questionable HOF prospects and his BC auto was a $150 card. Why was that kind of profile worth more? He wasn't cheap. He's having the best stretch of 45 games of his career by a mile. Is he peaking at 31? Possibly. But it's probably a bad gamble that he is

I believe people are just finally taking notice. It’s not like this stretch is just out of nowhere. Dude put up .295/38/121 last year.

Regarding the Superfractor you posted about, what is that? It appears to be a Refractor auto but the auto looks off as Freddie didn’t start adding his jersey number until like 2018.

[buzzardsroost]

I believe people are just finally taking notice. It’s not like this stretch is just out of nowhere. Dude put up .295/38/121 last year.

Regarding the Superfractor you posted about, what is that? It appears to be a Refractor auto but the auto looks off as Freddie didn’t start adding his jersey number until like 2018.

Looks like a recently signed auto to me

[speedyjg13]

Someone got duped hard on this one. $3000 sale of a fake Freddie superfractor. Even says Original in the listing. Disgusting

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freddie-Freeman-2011-Bowman-Chrome-SUPERFRACTOR-AUTOGRAPH-AUTO-1-1/123475619125?hash=item1cbfb86d35:g:WFAAAOSwEQFZqZ4

Wow the POS that sold it posts regularly here? Seems like it's the same guy: https://www.blowoutforums.com/member.php?u=42881 Seller says Minnesota, same as this profile and his username is the same as the seller's listed domain on that Ebay listong(Hofautorookies.com)

Oh my!!!! Hes been on here a while!

It's not confirmed its him but your research suggest its him.

Is it bad on the buyer for not researching what they buying?

[BBases31]

I believe people are just finally taking notice. It’s not like this stretch is just out of nowhere. Dude put up .295/38/121 last year.

Regarding the Superfractor you posted about, what is that? It appears to be a Refractor auto but the auto looks off as Freddie didn’t start adding his jersey number until like 2018.

It's a test proof card. Topps made extra sheets of these and they should've been destroyed but somehow made it out the backdoor. Shady sellers like the one pay to get it signed and then try to pass it off as a real superfractor. Can we ban that seller?

[bberns]

Sell and buy a nice Mookie

[Noles939913]

Looks like a recently signed auto to me

It has the “Topps Certified Autograph Issue” wording on it though so was it wiped clean and then resigned in person?

Nvm: answered as I was typing this.

[BBases31]

Oh my!!!! Hes been on here a while!

It's not confirmed its him but your research suggest its him.

Is it bad on the buyer for not researching what they buying?

The title say Bowman Chrome Superfractor Autograph. Under Original/Reprint on Ebay it says Original. Under Card Attributes it says 1/1(there is no 1/1 stamp on this card). The first sentence of the listing says "Up for auction is one of Freddie Freeman's most sought after rookie cards, his 2011 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Autograph!!". That's 4 lies. The next line in the description says test proof.

No I do not blame the buyer for being scammed when the seller intentionally misleads and lies in the listing. He would probably be prosecuted if a DA cared to nail him(I obviously know it's off their radar)

[whitmm]

I'm not saying hes a lock in today but to make a statement based on only 11 seasons is pretty dumb. If he was announcing his retirement after this season then I'd definitely agree but you can't ever right someone off as being hofer material unless they are complete crap.

They talk about guys being HOF locks all the time after 5-10 years. Averaging his stats over 11 seasons is wrong. One of those seasons he was a September call up, he had 24 plate appearances. And another of those years is this year, where he'll play a max of 60 games. I get that will be a "full season" but it's not exactly fair to include that when you're talking about averages and projections. 1500 hits over 11 seasons is 136 hits/season, over 9.5 it's 158 and turns into a 3 year difference in getting to 3,000. He's a career .294 hitter that puts up decent power numbers without being a pure home run hitter. He could very easily put up 5-6 more 5 WAR seasons. He's had 175 hits 5 times. Sure, he could simply fall off, but if he continues to do what he has been doing, his numbers are going to be HOF worthy.

[BBases31]

He could very easily put up 5-6 more 5 WAR seasons. He's had 175 hits 5 times. Sure, he could simply fall off, but if he continues to do what he has been doing, his numbers are going to be HOF worthy.

Players don't just magically get better in their 30s. There are a few exceptions to the rule but they are in the vast minority(and the best example, Cruz, used PEDs). It's a little nuts to think a guy who only has 3 seasons of 5 WAR under his belt is going to start putting up 5 WAR seasons consistently from 32-36

A standard aging curve decline for him leaves him well out of the HOF. He'll be in the hall of very good no matter what. But he's probably a 20% shot at best to make it. Remember, he was never close to one of the best players in the game at any point. He was consistently a top 5 one dimensional first baseman. Consistency doesn't get you into the Hall

[Noles939913]

Players don't just magically get better in their 30s. There are a few exceptions to the rule but they are in the vast minority(and the best example, Cruz, used PEDs). It's a little nuts to think a guy who only has 3 seasons of 5 WAR under his belt is going to start putting up 5 WAR seasons consistently from 32-36

A standard aging curve decline for him leaves him well out of the HOF. He'll be in the hall of very good no matter what. But he's probably a 20% shot at best to make it. Remember, he was never close to one of the best players in the game at any point. He was consistently a top 5 one dimensional first baseman. Consistency doesn't get you into the Hall

One dimensional? He’s a Gold Glover and is always talked about as one of the best defensive 1B.

[BBases31]

One dimensional? He’s a Gold Glover and is always talked about as one of the best defensive 1B.

He's won 1 Gold Glove and was 8th among 1B(trailing the top 4 by a ton) in Defensive Runs Saved over the last 5 seasons despite playing the 3rd most innings. He's been slightly above average defensively recently. He was awful on defense for the first half of his career. He had -7 Defensive Runs Saved from 2012-2015

And even that 1 great dimension of offense produced him only a single Silver Slugger award. Having only one year where you had the best offensive season at your own position is not hall worthy

[sbfinley]

Someone got duped hard on this one. $3000 sale of a fake Freddie superfractor. Even says Original in the listing. Disgusting

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freddie-Freeman-2011-Bowman-Chrome-SUPERFRACTOR-AUTOGRAPH-AUTO-1-1/123475619125?hash=item1cbfb86d35:g:WFAAAOSwEQFZqZ4

Wow the POS that sold it posts regularly here? Seems like it's the same guy: https://www.blowoutforums.com/member.php?u=42881 Seller says Minnesota, same as this profile and his username is the same as the seller's listed domain on that Ebay listong(Hofautorookies.com)

I’m not saying the listing is Kosher, but if you’re going to drop mid 5 figures on something you might want to read the entire listing on something and research it.

[BBases31]

I’m not saying the listing is Kosher, but if you’re going to drop mid 5 figures on something you might want to read the entire listing on something and research it.

You can read the entire listing and still think you are buying the legitimate, original superfractor because the listing says that's what it is. Not all card buyers understand cards like those on here and would know that he's lying multiple times on the title, description, and card attributes section

[Noles939913]

He's won 1 Gold Glove and was 8th among 1B(trailing the top 4 by a ton) in Defensive Runs Saved over the last 5 seasons despite playing the 3rd most innings. He's been slightly above average defensively recently. He was awful on defense for the first half of his career. He had -7 Defensive Runs Saved from 2012-2015

And even that 1 great dimension of offense produced him only a single Silver Slugger award. Having only one year where you had the best offensive season at your own position is not hall worthy

Beyond errors and fielding percentage how exactly are these numbers calculated in your own words?

[BBases31]

Beyond errors and fielding percentage how exactly are these numbers calculated in your own words?

Here's an easy explanation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_Runs_Saved#:~:text=Defensive%20Runs%20Saved%20(DRS)%20is,15%E2%80%9320%20for%20a%20season.

[Noles939913]

Here's an easy explanation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_Runs_Saved#:~:text=Defensive%20Runs%20Saved%20(DRS)%20is,15%E2%80%9320%20for%20a%20season.

So I take it you don’t even understand it since I asked you to explain it in your own words and then you predictably posted a link.

[whitmm]

So I take it you don’t even understand it since I asked you to explain it in your own words and then you predictably posted a link.

While I don't think he was more than a slightly above average defensive SS, we are talking about a metric that says Derek Jeter was the worst defender in the majors over his last 11 years

[BBases31]

So I take it you don’t even understand it since I asked you to explain it in your own words and then you predictably posted a link.

Lol what is this a class assignment? It's perfectly explained there in a few sentences:

"Defensive Runs Saved was created to take into account range when measuring a player's defensive ability. To calculate Defensive Runs Saved, for each ball hit, points are either added or subtracted to the fielder's rating depending on whether or not they make the play. For example, if a ball hit to the center fielder is expected to be caught 30 percent of the time, and it is caught, the fielder gains 0.7 points. If the center fielder does not catch the ball, he loses 0.3 points."

I don't know how I could put it any clearer

[jduds]

Freeman also has the advantage of having a particularly weak batch of contemporary hitters (players with 7 to 15 years. Outside of Trout, he compares favorably to most others in the same era. There is a lot of good, but not much great. Some hitters from the early 00s to now will undoubtedly make it might as well be Freeman. If he can sneak in an MVP this year, it certainly boosts his case. Freddie is almost a lock for the Veteran's committee if he falls that far.

[whitmm]

Lol what is this a class assignment? It's perfectly explained there in a few sentences:

"Defensive Runs Saved was created to take into account range when measuring a player's defensive ability. To calculate Defensive Runs Saved, for each ball hit, points are either added or subtracted to the fielder's rating depending on whether or not they make the play. For example, if a ball hit to the center fielder is expected to be caught 30 percent of the time, and it is caught, the fielder gains 0.7 points. If the center fielder does not catch the ball, he loses 0.3 points."

I don't know how I could put it any clearer

Yes, that describes what DRS is, but it doesn't explain how it is calculated. What goes into calculating the expected catch rate? Does it factor in positioning? Does it factor in shifts?

Freddie Freeman has consistently been one of the top first baseball in the league over the last ten years. Sure, he might not have the awards, but that doesn't mean he isn't good. He lost to Paul Goldschmidt 4 times for Silver Slugger. He also lost to Adam LaRoche, who had one great season in his career. He's had to compete against Goldy, Votto, Rizzo, and Pujols for ASG, a popularity contest. His WAR is 4th among first basemen since he came up full time, behind Pujols, Goldschmidt, and Cabrera. Consistently being a top 5 player at your position over a long career gives you a much better shot than 20% to make the HOF.

In his last 7 years, he's finished top 8 in MVP voting 4 times and two of the years he didn't, he missed 40 games due to injury

[cardsin47]

Freddie Freeman has consistently been one of the top first baseball in the league over the last ten years. Sure, he might not have the awards, but that doesn't mean he isn't good. He lost to Paul Goldschmidt 4 times for Silver Slugger. He also lost to Adam LaRoche

So let me get this straight — his cards are cheap, he’s been playing over a Decade, keeps being beat out by others for Awards, but yet he’s one of the best in the League and headed for the Hall because .? .......:coffee::coffee::coffee:

PS - nothing against your Card, OP!

[NYBBFAN]

Let’s put it this way - what would it take for Freeman to find solid footing in the hobby?

1 MVP? A WS ring? Trade to the Yankees (sorry for even suggesting it Braves fans)?

$90 for a Bowman Chrome RC auto seems dirt cheap to me.

[texmcpherson]

So let me get this straight — his cards are cheap, he’s been playing over a Decade, keeps being beat out by others for Awards, but yet he’s one of the best in the League and headed for the Hall because .? .......:coffee::coffee::coffee:

PS - nothing against your Card, OP!

So does Nolan Ryan stink because he never won a Cy Young award?

[BBases31]

$90 for a Bowman Chrome RC auto seems dirt cheap to me.

That's not cheap for for a BC Rookie Year Auto. Unless you are thinking of his 1st BC Auto which is closer to $150 and not dirt cheap either. Make a list of players that have been in the majors at least 3 years with more expensive ones. It's a short list. Goldschmidt's 1st BC Auto is a $90 card. Rendon's is a $50 card. By those standards Freeman is very expensive. Rendon is a year younger with almost the same career WAR and plays at a more premium position. Should Freddie be worth 3x that?

[cardsin47]

So does Nolan Ryan stink because he never won a Cy Young award?

Kinda’ taking a big leap here, aren’t you Partner? :doh::doh:

[whitmm]

So let me get this straight — his cards are cheap, he’s been playing over a Decade, keeps being beat out by others for Awards, but yet he’s one of the best in the League and headed for the Hall because .? .......:coffee::coffee::coffee:

PS - nothing against your Card, OP!

Card value has zero effect on whether someone is HOF worthy. If that were the case, Jasson Dominguez is already a HOF. He's played one decade, his September call up does not count as a full season. He's had some crazy good competition at the position during his career and has put up similar numbers. Goldy was a monster during those years. When he plays a full season, he's a top ten MVP candidate.

Freeman has 4 asg, 1 gold glove, and 1 silver slugger. Jeff Bagwell in the HOF has 3 asg, 1 GG and 1 SS. Eddie Murray has 8 ASG, 3 GG and 3 SS. Miguel Cabrera has zero gold gloves, that won't stop him from making the HOF. Carlos Delgado has 3 SS and a MVP. What I'm saying is awards don't mean that much. On Baseball Reference, the person Freeman compares to in each year by age is Eddie Murray.

I'm not going to complain that his cards are cheap

[whitmm]

Kinda’ taking a big leap here, aren’t you Partner? :doh::doh:

He went extreme example, but no different than you ignoring the stats and saying Freeman has no shot at the HOF because he's not winning awards

[BBases31]

I'm not going to complain that his cards are cheap

Cheap compared to who? No one. He's not cheap.

Anthony Rendon: 30 years old, 35.1 WAR, Career OPS: .863, 1 WS ring, much better defensively, premium position
Freddie Freeman: 31 years old, 37.1 WAR, Career OPS: .891, 0 rings, not a premium position

1st BC Auto Freeman: $150
1st BC Auto Rendon: $50

PSA 10 Topps main RC Freeman: $180
PSA 10 Topps main RC Rendon: $60

Edit: I see you're new here and you don't understand what drives card prices. All good :)

[whitmm]

Cheap compared to who? No one. He's not cheap.

Anthony Rendon: 30 years old, 35.1 WAR, Career OPS: .863, 1 WS ring, much better defensively, premium position
Freddie Freeman: 31 years old, 37.1 WAR, Career OPS: .891, 0 rings, not a premium position

1st BC Auto Freeman: $150
1st BC Auto Rendon: $50

PSA 10 Topps main RC Freeman: $180
PSA 10 Topps main RC Rendon: $60

Edit: I see you're new here and you don't understand what drives card prices. All good :)

I actually haven't looked at what his prices were. I was simply going off of what others were saying here. And them saying because his rookies are cheap that he isn't good. I understand what drives prices just fine, thanks.

I've been a member longer than you, just because I don't have thousands of posts doesn't mean I'm not reading the boards and following the hobby

[jhssketchcards]

I like Freeman, always have. But for a “Star” to have led the league in only two major offensive categories in his 11 years says something (hits and doubles).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Noles939913]

I like Freeman, always have. But for a “Star” to have led the league in only two major offensive categories in his 11 years says something (hits and doubles).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Your statement is very cherrypicked and flawed. 11 years? You’re counting this year that isn’t over yet and 2010 when he was called up late in the season and played in 20 games.

[texmcpherson]

Kinda’ taking a big leap here, aren’t you Partner? :doh::doh:

“Keeps getting beat out for awards.” You said it PARTNER, not me.

[whitmm]

Your statement is very cherrypicked and flawed. 11 years? You’re counting this year that isn’t over yet and 2010 when he was called up late in the season and played in 20 games.

They keep saying 11 seasons because that's what Baseball Reference says, I've pointed out that one of those seasons was 24 at bats. He might not lead the league in many categories, but he's consistently top ten in a lot of them. I'm not saying he is a first ballot lock for the HOF, but he's got a good shot if he continues to produce for another 7-10 years. He's never going to be the guy to get all the hype, in the hobby or the sport

[Noles939913]

Yes, that describes what DRS is, but it doesn't explain how it is calculated. What goes into calculating the expected catch rate? Does it factor in positioning? Does it factor in shifts?

Freddie Freeman has consistently been one of the top first baseball in the league over the last ten years. Sure, he might not have the awards, but that doesn't mean he isn't good. He lost to Paul Goldschmidt 4 times for Silver Slugger. He also lost to Adam LaRoche, who had one great season in his career. He's had to compete against Goldy, Votto, Rizzo, and Pujols for ASG, a popularity contest. His WAR is 4th among first basemen since he came up full time, behind Pujols, Goldschmidt, and Cabrera. Consistently being a top 5 player at your position over a long career gives you a much better shot than 20% to make the HOF.

In his last 7 years, he's finished top 8 in MVP voting 4 times and two of the years he didn't, he missed 40 games due to injury

This said it probably better than I could. He knows what it is and loves to cite it to devalue a player but doesn’t respond because even he has next to no clue how it works.

[wood minis]

The Braves as a team should be playing in the postseason for years to come with their core. Consistent post season production would help his HOF case. I like players who are tough outs and consistently good to great like Freeman. He's got a shot at the HOF in my opinion.

[BBases31]

This said it probably better than I could. He knows what it is and loves to cite it to devalue a player but doesn’t respond because even he has next to no clue how it works.

The guy asked me how it was calculated in a response to me describing exactly how it's calculated. What more am I supposed to say? It's like talking to a wall. Here's what I quoted to him:

"To calculate Defensive Runs Saved, for each ball hit, points are either added or subtracted to the fielder's rating depending on whether or not they make the play. For example, if a ball hit to the center fielder is expected to be caught 30 percent of the time, and it is caught, the fielder gains 0.7 points. If the center fielder does not catch the ball, he loses 0.3 points."

If he's wondering how expected catch percentage is calculated here it is, taken directly from the publishers of DRS:

"DRS principally relies on batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions — a huge dataset that is usually used by professional sports teams for analytic scouting. Batted balls by BIS are graded based on the direction that the ball is hit, the distance of the ball, the speed of the ball off the bat and the type of the batted ball (line drive, fly ball and so forth).

Batted balls can be grouped based on similarity, and then the frequency at which players turn those batted balls into outs can be evaluated as a percent. DRS gives credit for players based on how they perform on based on that percentage."

DRS has it's flaws and we can go back forth on those ad naseum. I think OAA is better. It's not really worth a back and forth over with someone who dismisses DRS entirely because he doesn't understand it.

[NCWolf]

Actively buying 2009 or 2011 Freeman RC and Autos if anyone is selling. Willing to pay over ebay comps for some.

[Noles939913]

The guy asked me how it was calculated in a response to me describing exactly how it's calculated. What more am I supposed to say? It's like talking to a wall. Here's what I quoted to him:

"To calculate Defensive Runs Saved, for each ball hit, points are either added or subtracted to the fielder's rating depending on whether or not they make the play. For example, if a ball hit to the center fielder is expected to be caught 30 percent of the time, and it is caught, the fielder gains 0.7 points. If the center fielder does not catch the ball, he loses 0.3 points."

If he's wondering how expected catch percentage is calculated here it is, taken directly from the publishers of DRS:

"DRS principally relies on batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions — a huge dataset that is usually used by professional sports teams for analytic scouting. Batted balls by BIS are graded based on the direction that the ball is hit, the distance of the ball, the speed of the ball off the bat and the type of the batted ball (line drive, fly ball and so forth).

Batted balls can be grouped based on similarity, and then the frequency at which players turn those batted balls into outs can be evaluated as a percent. DRS gives credit for players based on how they perform on based on that percentage."

DRS has it's flaws and we can go back forth on those ad naseum. I think OAA is better. It's not really worth a back and forth over with someone who dismisses DRS entirely because he doesn't understand it.

I understand it fine and understand it’s quite flawed and no you really didn’t answer what he asked if you’d care to read it.

[BBases31]

I understand it fine and understand it’s quite flawed

I meant the other guy.

no you really didn’t answer what he asked if you’d care to read it.

I missed the shift part. Yes it takes into account shifts going back to I think 2012 or 2013.

[whitmm]

I understand it fine and understand it’s quite flawed and no you really didn’t answer what he asked if you’d care to read it.

Most of the defensive metrics are heavily flawed. That's why you will sometimes see one might rate a player elite and another rates him poorly. Teams have been using positioning and shading more and more. Which causes more plays to be harder than if they were playing straight up. The Braves have had 2nd basemen that are rangy, allowing Freeman to shade more. But that hurts his defense metrics.

If you have a center fielder like Trout who can cover a lot of ground and might play more straight away vs. A center fielder that can't, so he shades more. They both make a catch of a ball hit to the same spot. The CF that shaded him gets less credit because he used hitter tendencies to position himself smartly. DRS is hardly used unless talking about elite defenders, and you don't need a metric to prove Trout or Simmons are elite defenders

[BBases31]

Most of the defensive metrics are heavily flawed. That's why you will sometimes see one might rate a player elite and another rates him poorly. Teams have been using positioning and shading more and more. Which causes more plays to be harder than if they were playing straight up. The Braves have had 2nd basemen that are rangy, allowing Freeman to shade more. But that hurts his defense metrics.

If you have a center fielder like Trout who can cover a lot of ground and might play more straight away vs. A center fielder that can't, so he shades more. They both make a catch of a ball hit to the same spot. The CF that shaded him gets less credit because he used hitter tendencies to position himself smartly. DRS is hardly used unless talking about elite defenders, and you don't need a metric to prove Trout or Simmons are elite defenders

OAA(Outs Above Average) takes exact positioning into account along with more exact data on the ball path/flight. Freddie Freeman ranks 8th among 1B from 2017-2020(but with more innings played than most). He has a 1% added success rate(Matt Olson at the top is 4%) which runs just in line of where DRS had him the past few years, as a slightly above average defender. In percent added success rate he's tied for 13th in that time period. Here's the OAA leaderboard from that time:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=all&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=show


If you have a center fielder like Trout who can cover a lot of ground and might play more straight away vs. A center fielder that can't, so he shades more. They both make a catch of a ball hit to the same spot. The CF that shaded him gets less credit because he used hitter tendencies to position himself smartly. DRS is hardly used unless talking about elite defenders, and you don't need a metric to prove Trout or Simmons are elite defenders

The beauty of today's advanced numbers is that they tell the true story where the eye test deceives. Trout has never been an elite defender. Since 2016, Trout has -6 OAA overall. He's been below average the last 4 seasons. UZR/DRS not liking him was actually confirmed by OAA

[jhssketchcards]

Your statement is very cherrypicked and flawed. 11 years? You’re counting this year that isn’t over yet and 2010 when he was called up late in the season and played in 20 games.


So we not Cherry pick stars? I mean bench mark numbers are great, and HOF is full of those guys so Freeman could very well be one. But he’s never been considered the best player in the league, in 10 full years. Right now even though he’s having a great season, he’s not considered the best player on his own team by many. Acuna is (not my choice, I like Freeman). He could win MVP, and if so I will be glad for him. Leading the league in key categories is how we measure great players most of the time. Longevity and consistency is another, and Freeman as of now fits that narrative. He’s having a great season, as messed up as it is with COVID.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[whitmm]

OAA(Outs Above Average) takes exact positioning into account along with more exact data on the ball path/flight. Freddie Freeman ranks 8th among 1B from 2017-2020(but with more innings played than most). He has a 1% added success rate(Matt Olson at the top is 4%) which runs just in line of where DRS had him the past few years, as a slightly above average defender. In percent added success rate he's tied for 13th in that time period. Here's the OAA leaderboard from that time:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=all&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=show




The beauty of today's advanced numbers is that they tell the true story where the eye test deceives. Trout has never been an elite defender. Since 2016, Trout has -6 OAA overall. He's been below average the last 4 seasons. UZR/DRS not liking him was actually confirmed by OAA

So, Freeman went from awful to above average? But he's still one dimensional because he's not the best defensive player? He's still top ten, which is pretty good. And offensively he's been consistently top ten in stats. And compares to Eddie Murray yearly by age. But he's got no shot at the Hall? I'm not saying he's the best ever. Maybe one season he'll put up eye-popping numbers. There's a lot of teams that wish they could run a player like him out there for 10 years with his production

[Noles939913]

So we not Cherry pick stars? I mean bench mark numbers are great, and HOF is full of those guys so Freeman could very well be one. But he’s never been considered the best player in the league, in 10 full years. Right now even though he’s having a great season, he’s not considered the best player on his own team by many. Acuna is (not my choice, I like Freeman). He could win MVP, and if so I will be glad for him. Leading the league in key categories is how we measure great players most of the time. Longevity and consistency is another, and Freeman as of now fits that narrative. He’s having a great season, as messed up as it is with COVID.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And those people are all wrong:

Freeman is hitting almost a 100 points higher than Acuna this year lol.

Maybe Freddie should cover his neck in tattoos, get his ears pierced, only button his jersey halfway so all his chains can show, and get hair extensions like Acuna did...then he’d get more love.

[BBases31]

So, Freeman went from awful to above average?

Yes.

But he's still one dimensional because he's not the best defensive player? He's still top ten, which is pretty good.

One dimensional just means you only excel at one thing. Right, he's been just above average in the second half of his career

And offensively he's been consistently top ten in stats. And compares to Eddie Murray yearly by age. But he's got no shot at the Hall? I'm not saying he's the best ever. Maybe one season he'll put up eye-popping numbers.

Eddie Murray had 71 career WAR. Freddie would have to average 5 WAR a year until age 39 to match that. That's an extremely remote possibility. All we can go by is what's been the floor needed to get into the Hall. A 55-60 career WAR 1B who was never among the best in the league isn't going to make it unless standards change. Freddie is at 37 WAR. A normal aging curve has him finishing around 52-55. Adding 10 WAR to that would be absolutely blowing away precedent and typical aging curves and that still might not be enough because he was never great, just consistently very good. Can he do it? Possibly but the odds are stacked against him.

There's a lot of teams that wish they could run a player like him out there for 10 years with his production

What does that have to do with if he makes the Hall of Fame? It's not the hall of very good. You keep making points about him being an excellent player and top tier 1B, we know that's the case. It's about Hall entrance. A great comp is Fred McGriff. McGriff had 4 seasons above 5 WAR(Freeman is at 3). He finished with 56.8 WAR. He was one of the better hitters in baseball for 15 straight years. Career OPS of .886 and wRC+ of 134. Freddie is .890 and 138 wRC+. McGriff had 493 HRs. Freddie at 237 at age 31. Freddie only has 838 runs and 848 RBIs. McGriff 1349 and 1550.

Fred McGriff never got over 25% in any year he was on the ballot. Why is Freddie likely to make when it was apparent McGriff had a 0% chance from the first time he was on the ballot?

[Noles939913]

Yes.



One dimensional just means you only excel at one thing. Right, he's been just above average in the second half of his career



Eddie Murray had 71 career WAR. Freddie would have to average 5 WAR a year until age 39 to match that. That's an extremely remote possibility. All we can go by is what's been the floor needed to get into the Hall. A 55-60 career WAR 1B who was never among the best in the league isn't going to make it unless standards change. Freddie is at 37 WAR. A normal aging curve has him finishing around 52-55. Adding 10 WAR to that would be absolutely blowing away precedent and typical aging curves and that still might not be enough because he was never great, just consistently very good. Can he do it? Possibly but the odds are stacked against him.



What does that have to do with if he makes the Hall of Fame? It's not the hall of very good. You keep making points about him being an excellent player and top tier 1B, we know that's the case. It's about Hall entrance. A great comp is Fred McGriff. McGriff had 4 seasons above 5 WAR(Freeman is at 3). He finished with 56.8 WAR. He was one of the better hitters in baseball for 15 straight years. Career OPS of .886 and wRC+ of 134. Freddie is .890 and 138 wRC+. McGriff had 493 HRs. Freddie at 237 at age 31. Freddie only has 838 runs and 848 RBIs. McGriff 1349 and 1550.

Fred McGriff never got over 25% in any year he was on the ballot. Why is Freddie likely to make when it was apparent McGriff had a 0% chance from the first time he was on the ballot?

The crazy part is the Crime Dog could’ve come back for one more year in 1B/DH spot duty, hit 7 more HRs and be a HOF lock.

[whitmm]

I like Freeman, always have. But for a “Star” to have led the league in only two major offensive categories in his 11 years says something (hits and doubles).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cal Ripken Jr led the league in hits, runs, and doubles in his second full season. He never led the league in a major offensive category his next 18 years.

Chipper Jones led the a category 3 times in his career (BA, OBP, OPS)

Mike Piazza never led any category

Jim Thome, 3 times in his career (HR, SLG, OPS)

[whitmm]

What does that have to do with if he makes the Hall of Fame? It's not the hall of very good. You keep making points about him being an excellent player and top tier 1B, we know that's the case. It's about Hall entrance. A great comp is Fred McGriff. McGriff had 4 seasons above 5 WAR(Freeman is at 3). He finished with 56.8 WAR. He was one of the better hitters in baseball for 15 straight years. Career OPS of .886 and wRC+ of 134. Freddie is .890 and 138 wRC+. McGriff had 493 HRs. Freddie at 237 at age 31. Freddie only has 838 runs and 848 RBIs. McGriff 1349 and 1550.

Fred McGriff never got over 25% in any year he was on the ballot. Why is Freddie likely to make when it was apparent McGriff had a 0% chance from the first time he was on the ballot?[/QUOTE]

A lot of people think McGriff should be in. Andruw Jones is considered one of the best centerfielders to play. But his offensive stats are keeping him out of the Hall. The media voters don't care about defense. You want to discredit Freddie for being poor defensively his first few years. If you want to rule a guy out because he started poorly, Tom Glavine never makes it

[bravesballer]

His 2017 injury really derailed his best chance at winning an MVP. I expect him to finish around 2500 hits, 400 homers, and close to .300 avg. I think his popularity especially within the sport will likely help him with the voters and get him in on his 2nd or 3rd year of eligibility.

[BBases31]

A lot of people think McGriff should be in.

So? He never got over 25%. He never had a chance. He was never close to having a chance. He was on the ballot for 10 years.

Andruw Jones is considered one of the best centerfielders to play. But his offensive stats are keeping him out of the Hall. The media voters don't care about defense. You want to discredit Freddie for being poor defensively his first few years. If you want to rule a guy out because he started poorly, Tom Glavine never makes it

I just gave u a near identical comp that played the same position in the same organization that couldn't sniff the Hall with the same record of poor defense and you offer me a defense first player that didn't make it as a counter :confused:. I'm gonna call it on the back and forth on this one bud.

[clocsta2323]

I love Freddie but please, lets not ruin Cooperstown. It's still prestigious. Mitch Richmond and T-Mac ain't walking through those doors.

[Noles939913]

I love Freddie but please, lets not ruin Cooperstown. It's still prestigious. Mitch Richmond and T-Mac ain't walking through those doors.

Baines, Harold. And many others who weren’t as good as T-Mac or Rock in their respective sport.

[Danderlion]

Unless you are PCing him, this is the year to sell. Wait about a month though once he has the MVP locked up and in the middle of a playoff run :)!

[whitmm]

I understand it fine and understand it’s quite flawed and no you really didn’t answer what he asked if you’d care to read it.

Another flaw with defensive metrics is that they only factor in balls hit to the player. Freddie has been talked about a lot as being one of the top scoopers and stretchers. If Dansby makes a play from deep in the hole and Freddie has to lay out to catch the throw, Dansby gets all the credit and Freddie gets nothing more than a put out in the stat book. There are certain parts of being a first basemen that simply can't be judge by a fielding metric

[whitmm]

Unless you are PCing him, this is the year to sell. Wait about a month though once he has the MVP locked up and in the middle of a playoff run :)!

Back the the OP's question, yes, this is the year to sell. Wait until the playoffs, but be prepared for potential returns when the Braves don't win it all.

[cardsin47]

Should I sell now or wait?

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

Sell today / thank me next year ;)

[WizardofOz1982]

Yes, that describes what DRS is, but it doesn't explain how it is calculated. What goes into calculating the expected catch rate? Does it factor in positioning? Does it factor in shifts?

Freddie Freeman has consistently been one of the top first baseball in the league over the last ten years. Sure, he might not have the awards, but that doesn't mean he isn't good. He lost to Paul Goldschmidt 4 times for Silver Slugger. He also lost to Adam LaRoche, who had one great season in his career. He's had to compete against Goldy, Votto, Rizzo, and Pujols for ASG, a popularity contest. His WAR is 4th among first basemen since he came up full time, behind Pujols, Goldschmidt, and Cabrera. Consistently being a top 5 player at your position over a long career gives you a much better shot than 20% to make the HOF.

In his last 7 years, he's finished top 8 in MVP voting 4 times and two of the years he didn't, he missed 40 games due to injury

Ted Simmons was consistently a top 3-4 catcher for his era and he is a top 10 all time catcher. It took 31 years, getting kicked off the ballot his first year, and 2 Veterans Committees to finally get in.

I'm not saying Freeman doesn't have a shot but it is a very long one. He's not going to reach anything close to the top 10 at 1B even having been a top 1B for his era.

Another flaw with defensive metrics is that they only factor in balls hit to the player. Freddie has been talked about a lot as being one of the top scoopers and stretchers. If Dansby makes a play from deep in the hole and Freddie has to lay out to catch the throw, Dansby gets all the credit and Freddie gets nothing more than a put out in the stat book. There are certain parts of being a first basemen that simply can't be judge by a fielding metric


This is patently false. Scoops have their own metric and they are certainly included in 1B defensive metrics.

[kabrune2]

It’ll all depend on the next 5-6 years for Freeman. If he can average 3.0 WAR per year over that time span he should get in. His closest comp by age (every year from age 21 to current) according to baseball-reference is Eddie Murray, which is awesome, but also an incredibly tough act to follow considering Murray played into his 40’s to get his resume HoF worthy. Freeman will either have to stay all-star worthy for 5+ years or he’ll have to play into his 40’s, either route is doable, but both routes aren’t probable.

Freeman is my favorite player so I’m rooting and I’m biased, but I’m a realist when I look forward and cross my fingers he stays productive and doesn’t endure a lost season due to injury, there is very little room for error for him to make the HoF, but I am hopeful.