Who had the more impressive sophomore season, Acuna or Tatis?

[The Nasty Nati]

Who you got?

[rman112]

59 games vs. 156?

[lauriontj]

59 games vs. 156?

Exactly why I voted for Acuna

[gabballplayer14]

“Who do you have more money invested in - Acuna or Tatis?”

[ThoseBackPages]

Soto.

[lauriontj]

Soto.

This.

[oplum29]

didn't Acuna just miss a 40/40 season in his 2nd year?

[Alvarez09]

I have more money in Tatis than Acuna, but anyone voting for Tatis is absurd.

[The Nasty Nati]

Soto.

Soto had a decent sophomore regular season, but a great playoff season.

But for the regular season:

Soto came in 7th in NL MVP voting his 2nd year w/ 4.6 WAR
Acuna came in 5th in NL MVP voting his 2nd year w/ 5.7 WAR (and 41HR / 37SB)
Tatis will probably come in 3rd in NL MVP in his 2nd year w/ 2.5 WAR in just 60 games

Tough to beat Acuna's nearly 40/40 season, but it makes you wonder if Tatis could have done it with those 102 extra games.

[pewe]

didn't Acuna just miss a 40/40 season in his 2nd year?


And Tatis missed playing in a normal season... lots of misses here :D


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[cardsin47]

Acuna had one of the greatest sophomore years in recent memory ( although it is slipping a bit, lately ) Tatis - season too short for a fair comparison

[pewe]

Acuna had one of the greatest sophomore years in recent memory ( although it is slipping a bit, lately ) Tatis - season too short for a fair comparison


Assuming we are talking wRC+ or WAR feels more common than you say... some that were similar or better over the last few years:
— Judge
— Chapman
— Lindor
— Soto
— Eloy (wRC+ definitely, and WAR when projecting 2020 to a full season)

And of course: Tatis (wRC+ by a long shot, but also 2020 scale for WAR)

And that was just a quick check of recent popular names that have been in the league a few years... I didn’t try to do a more comprehensive look


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[oldgoldy97]

Tatis flips better.

[pewe]

Tatis flips better.


A thing of beauty


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[KhalDrogo]

Can't go into these threads anymore without being assaulted by nerd stats that maybe a couple hundred people in the country care about.

[pewe]

Can't go into these threads anymore without being assaulted by nerd stats that maybe a couple hundred people in the country care about.


Including those who matter the most: baseball teams


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[cardsin47]

Assuming we are talking wRC+ or WAR feels more common than you say... some that were similar or better over the last few years:
— Judge
— Chapman
— Lindor
— Soto
— Eloy (wRC+ definitely, and WAR when projecting 2020 to a full season)



Yeah, I was only commenting based on memory —- not stats and research. ( I just woke up :doh: ) I’m sure you’re right about the Sophomore great years by these other players :)!

[KhalDrogo]

Including those who matter the most: baseball teams


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But do they? Care to take a guess where Bryce Harper ranked for WAR and WRC+ in the three years preceding his record breaking contract?

[pewe]

But do they? Care to take a guess where Bryce Harper ranked for WAR and WRC+ in the three years preceding his record breaking contract?


Well, it is certainly possible the Phillies don’t care about winning. And certainly some teams earn $$ in ways other than winning (see Royals), and some focus on entertainment outside baseball as a reason fans should show up.

But in the end most teams think about players in a very simple way: cost/win. Why? The two largest sources of revenue (gate receipts and media contracts) correlate most strongly to winning. And they project the player’s value to producing those wins when deciding on players.


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[KhalDrogo]

Well, it is certainly possible the Phillies don’t care about winning. And certainly some teams earn $$ in ways other than winning (see Royals), and some focus on entertainment outside baseball as a reason fans should show up.

But in the end most teams think about players in a very simple way: cost/win. Why? The two largest sources of revenue (gate receipts and media contracts) correlate most strongly to winning. And they project the player’s value to producing those wins when deciding on players.


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Did you just admit that nerd stats aren't everything?

[pewe]

Did you just admit that nerd stats aren't everything?


Perhaps it wasn’t clear, but I just validated they are the most important items to most teams (ie they are the input to the most important criteria of business success: cost/win)...

For the other teams they use different nerd stats, so it isn’t “no nerd stats”... they just don’t care about winning, so use their own “nerd stats” that help them predict business success (like what is minimum I can pay a roster while still being considered an MLB team / not be kicked out so rest of the league pays me a profit = Royals)


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[KhalDrogo]

Perhaps it wasn’t clear, but I just validated they are the most important items to most teams (ie they are the input to the most important criteria of business success: cost/win)...

For the other teams they use different nerd stats, so it isn’t “no nerd stats”... they just don’t care about winning, so use their own “nerd stats” that help them predict business success (like what is minimum I can pay a roster while still being considered an MLB team / not be kicked out so rest of the league pays me a profit = Royals)


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You didn’t validate anything.

Nerd stats, convenient when they “prove” your point. Inconvenient when they don’t.

You guys think you can measure the contribution of every play in every game to come up with some number that represents a player’s importance. You can’t. It’s not perfect, despite you making it out to be.

[pewe]

You didn’t validate anything.

Nerd stats, convenient when they “prove” your point. Inconvenient when they don’t.

You guys think you can measure the contribution of every play in every game to come up with some number that represents a player’s importance. You can’t. It’s not perfect, despite you making it out to be.


So... as a physician in treating your patients you ignore research that indicates effectiveness and best practice because it isn’t applicable or positively predictive in 100% of the cases?

And the aspiration should not be to try and make those indications continually better and better?

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[ThoseBackPages]

So... as a physician in treating your patients you ignore research that indicates effectiveness and best practice because it isn’t applicable or positively predictive in 100% of the cases?

And the aspiration should not be to try and make those indications continually better and better?

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you are comparing a doctor to nerd stats?

[pewe]

you are comparing a doctor to nerd stats?


I’m appealing to a physician’s approach and methodology, yes

The mindset that underlies contemporary baseball management aspires today apply the same scientific method to drive decision making and impact


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[KhalDrogo]

So... as a physician in treating your patients you ignore research that indicates effectiveness and best practice because it isn’t applicable or positively predictive in 100% of the cases?

And the aspiration should not be to try and make those indications continually better and better?

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This is certainly an extreme jump.

You think nerd stats mean everything. Which is why you jump in every thread that compares any two players to mention WRC, WAR, QPC, OPS+, FZM, and TLU. They are an adjunct to evaluation. Not the end all be all.

[pewe]

This is certainly an extreme jump.

You think nerd stats mean everything. Which is why you jump in every thread that compares any two players to mention WRC, WAR, QPC, OPS+, FZM, and TLU. They are an adjunct to evaluation. Not the end all be all.


I really should use QPC much more, that is for sure

As a proud armchair sabermetrics fan, it would likely be wise for anyone on these boards to ignore me and my attempt to interpret anything. Just a fun hobby where I’m trying to mimic what the pros do - and hopefully get better over time.

I’m probably no better than keyboard “medical experts” who probably interpret things pretty poorly (and don’t even have the facts or education to do more).

None of the above means teams don’t treat the scientific method with any less vigor or importance than healthcare professions. Are they as good at it as other academic spaces, like medicine? Probably not. But doesn’t mean they don’t attempt to use similar approaches.


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[JustRachel]

Can't go into these threads anymore without being assaulted by nerd stats that maybe a couple hundred people in the country care about.

Yessir.

I'm going to say Tatis, and the reason I'm giving him the edge is because Acuna didn't always run out the ball. He gets minus points for that.

Is there a nerd stat for that?

[SupermanBrandon]

Full season vs a s**t show of a shortened season. To make this debate fair...can the nerd stat guys go find the best 60 game stretch that Acuna had last year? Since we only have a 60 month Tatis to compare. Then we can decide who had the better "season".

[cardsin47]

And how about these non-stat based, Tatis vs. Acuna Sophomore Year attributes:

Impact on MLB?
Exciting to watch?
Personality and Swagger?
Competitive Spirit and desire to Win?
Community Activism and admiration?

[SupermanBrandon]

And how about these non-stat based, Tatis vs. Acuna Sophomore Year attributes:

Impact on MLB?
Exciting to watch?
Personality and Swagger?
Competitive Spirit and desire to Win?
Community Activism and admiration?

That's stuff that nerds can't put into am excel sheet. Doesn't count.

[pewe]

And how about these non-stat based, Tatis vs. Acuna Sophomore Year attributes:

Impact on MLB?
Exciting to watch?
Personality and Swagger?
Competitive Spirit and desire to Win?
Community Activism and admiration?


Crushing it!!! Part of what I love about Tatis :)


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[oplum29]

Acuna had one of the greatest sophomore years in recent memory ( although it is slipping a bit, lately ) Tatis - season too short for a fair comparison

you talking about Acuna slipping?

he had a pretty good season this year, considering he was banged up a lot, and that Atlanta was pretty beat up a good chunk of the season.

[pewe]

That's stuff that nerds can't put into am excel sheet. Doesn't count.


This stuff is pretty easy to measure - anyone who builds brands relies on measuring this all the time


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[rman112]

The amount of people choosing Tatis in 59 games is head scratching.

[Stech36]

you are comparing a doctor to nerd stats?

He's comparing math to math

[Giancarlo27]

Jesus christ how is Tatis winning lol. Guess BO has moved their portfolio into Tatis and liquidated Acuna

[rngrdanny22]

Jesus christ how is Tatis winning lol. Guess BO has moved their portfolio into Tatis and liquidated Acuna


This is directly correlated to the new people in the hobby.

2018 we saw Acuna/Soto/Gleyber skyrocket and it brought new people in. Unfortunately for them, they were priced out of the 2018 guys and began hoarding the "next one", which happened to be Tatis and Guerrero from 2019 product.

They are going to vote for Tatis because that's where their money lies.

Conversely, the people that were big on the 2018 guys, will place their votes there.


TL;DR
People are voting with who they are more "invested" in.

[bulljh]

Jesus christ how is Tatis winning lol. Guess BO has moved their portfolio into Tatis and liquidated Acuna

Easy answer...recency bias

[cardsharkk]

Ronald batted .250 for the season, not much to compare

[SaltyCracker]

Ronald batted .250 for the season, not much to compare

He hit .280 his sophomore season (2019). That’s what’s being compared here.

[rngrdanny22]

Ronald batted .250 for the season, not much to compare


And this is another reason Tatis is winning.

People don't even know what they're voting for.

[Giancarlo27]

Ronald batted .250 for the season, not much to compare

Acuna's sophomore season was last year, where he nearly went 40/40. Perhaps other people getting confused like you best explains why Tatis is winning

[pewe]

Acuna's sophomore season was last year, where he nearly went 40/40. Perhaps other people getting confused like you best explains why Tatis is winning


Or for some of us 40/40 isn’t very impressive... half that stat describes something that didn’t add value... we can come up to two random stats that seem unusually good for many players... doesn’t mean they were particularly usefully special as a ball player


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[ThoseBackPages]

Or for some of us 40/40 isn’t very impressive... half that stat describes something that didn’t add value... we can come up to two random stats that seem unusually good for many players... doesn’t mean they were particularly usefully special as a ball player


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oh man.

[speedyjg13]

59 games vs. 156?

Inconclusive evidence for Tatis since he didn't play a full season like Acuna

[ThoseBackPages]

its clearly a case of card collectors vs math nerds

[rman112]

Or for some of us 40/40 isn’t very impressive... half that stat describes something that didn’t add value... we can come up to two random stats that seem unusually good for many players... doesn’t mean they were particularly usefully special as a ball player


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LOL at stealing 37 bases at an 80% clip not adding any value.

[pewe]

LOL at stealing 37 bases at an 80% clip not adding any value.


Shall I send around the details on this, again? He added maybe 0.1 WAR even at 80%... break even is just lower than 80%

That is how bad the outs hurt, and why it’s treated as a vanity stat allowed in positions where a coach:
A) needs to gamble
B) just want the player to feel good about themself, but doesn’t risk the game as it wouldn’t be helpful


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[rman112]

Shall I send around the details on this, again? He added maybe 0.1 WAR even at 80%... break even is just lower than 80%

That is how bad the outs hurt, and why it’s treated as a vanity stat allowed in positions where a coach:
A) needs to gamble
B) just want the player to feel good about themself, but doesn’t risk the game as it wouldn’t be helpful


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I have to ask.. have you ever played ball?

[pewe]

I have to ask.. have you ever played ball?


Who hasn’t?!? Got to train hard, though...

https://media1.giphy.com/media/uWLJEGCSWdmvK/giphy.gif


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[speedyjg13]

Can this be open to only those who don't own Acuna or Tatis cards...i feel that opinions are heavily influenced by card ownership of those players

[tedwilliamsfan]

I like Acuna more and I collect Acuna, so Acuna is the winner of all winners. No nerd stats needed here. Go Acuna!!!

[pewe]

Can this be open to only those who don't own Acuna or Tatis cards...i feel that opinions are heavily influenced by card ownership of those players


I own both, but much much more Acuna... kind of wish I’d reconsidered my questions on Tatis exiting 2019 re: BABIP. He really impressed me in 2020 (of course, not the only one... Acuna was amazing w/power, Soto with mastery of the plate, etc.)... he’s my favorite all around player now


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[SupermanBrandon]

Can this be open to only those who don't own Acuna or Tatis cards...i feel that opinions are heavily influenced by card ownership of those players

Who doesn't own a single Tatis, Acuna or Soto card?

[ThoseBackPages]

Who doesn't own a single Tatis, Acuna or Soto card?

ME!

(multiples lol)

[oldgoldy97]

ME!

(multiples lol)

Open some of your stash and you would.

[pewe]

ME!

(multiples lol)


Hahaha!!!


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[LVDan]

Who doesn't own a single Tatis, Acuna or Soto card?
I can honestly say I don't own a true rc of any of them. I'm an odd duck for sure.
:eek:

[JustRachel]

Acuna finished 5th in mvp voting his sophomore year. Tatis will likely be 3rd.

Acuna was never really in the mvp conversation, as he was overshadowed by Bellinger and Yelich, and then Rendon later in the season. Tatis was definitely in the conversation for the majority of this (short) season, though not so much at the end.

And, the biggest reason of all: Acuna's attitude diminishes his on-field performance, making it less impressive.

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[pewe]

I can honestly say I don't own a true rc of any of them. I'm an odd duck for sure.
:eek:


It’s interesting you say this... in all honestly, I may be the same with Tatis (I have lots of the others). I have Tatis parallels, and his RD as I ripped update wax. But no base cards.


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[adamwanaselja]

Can this be open to only those who don't own Acuna or Tatis cards...i feel that opinions are heavily influenced by card ownership of those players

I don’t own a card from either player (I have a Soto Topps Gold PSA 10 and otherwise collect vintage). Acuna is the clear answer. Tatis has 143 career games played. He’s yet to play a full season.

[cardsharkk]

Acuna's sophomore season was last year, where he nearly went 40/40. Perhaps other people getting confused like you best explains why Tatis is winning

Oh yeah I misread- Good catch!

Still voting Tatis though - Tatis had a better 2nd year than Acuna's 2nd or 3rd season imo.

I LOVE Acuna! Just gotta get that AVG up to think about being in the MVP convo in coming years

[rman112]

Oh yeah I misread- Good catch!

Still voting Tatis though - Tatis had a better 2nd year than Acuna's 2nd or 3rd season imo.

I LOVE Acuna! Just gotta get that AVG up to think about being in the MVP convo in coming years

He had a higher average in a full year than Tatis just did..

[oddstuff]

Can't really compare apples to oranges. Tatis' season this short season is an example of that. If we snapshot his July/August, easy MVP season/better sophomore season...but then September happened. In the same way, extrapolating a 60 game season into a 162 season can't capture any other slumps/streaks/injuries/wear&tear that may happen over a full season. So trying to compare Tatis' 2020 sophomore 1/3 season to Acuna's 156 games 2019 season can't/shouldn't be done.