Trae Young Prizm vs James Harden Total Market Cap Analysis

[massina cards]

Hey- I just finished a little project tonight trying to compare the total market cap/print run of 2018 Prizm Trae and 2009 Topps Chrome Harden. The pictures below should explain the methodology I used if you’re curious. Obviously any project like this will be imperfect but I think overall it’s a fair estimate. Let me know what you think!

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[Ericc5Bears]

Can't believe 75 people viewed this thread and nobody said nice work, this is really cool stuff and I appreciate you doing it. I've always been curious what the 5 biggest market cap players would be if you narrow it down to their most popular rookie cards like you did here. My guess would be Luka, Zion, Lebron, Trae, and Giannis with Ja, Tatum, and Kobe possibly being in the mix as well.

[darscards35kd]

Awesome stuff. The hobby needs more data and analysis like this!

[clipperboy24]

Love things like this, well done. I’d say the value methodology is a bit off in my opinion, but thanks for posting the break down

[ichirorox]

Think it would be more valuable having the player comps on the same row instead of an entire list of each player and then the next... for example for the Base line, have all three players side by side. Just my 2 cents

[tjforce]

"Buut Buut Buut... all muh Trae bassssss"

This is good work OP. I bet it's helped you realize what a lot of people out there haven't yet realized: More recent stuff is WAAYYY more produced that even 5 years ago.

Now, I'm not here being chicken little, saying it's all going to come crashing down. But I am saying that eventually something has to give, and IMO it's going to be the heavily produced cards of guys that don't turn out to be real superstars.

[Paderborn1907]

Excellent work OP! Pretty much shows that today’s hobby is only about gambling and short term flipping until the next hype arrives.

Long term investment is almost impossible, since all the money will always be moved to the flavor of the month.

You need to be in the GOAT discussion to outperform the print runs. Giannis, McDavid & Mahomes might have a chance. It will be already tough for Luka to sustain and Zion and Ja are so overprinted that it’ll be almost impossible to keep value long term.

Not even talking about Burrow, Herbert or Tua, that might end very brutal for many.

[massina cards]

Can't believe 75 people viewed this thread and nobody said nice work, this is really cool stuff and I appreciate you doing it. I've always been curious what the 5 biggest market cap players would be if you narrow it down to their most popular rookie cards like you did here. My guess would be Luka, Zion, Lebron, Trae, and Giannis with Ja, Tatum, and Kobe possibly being in the mix as well.

Haha thanks, yeah I think your list is spot on.. LeBron and Luka are definitely the top 2 for current players and there's a huge gap between them and the number three guy

[massina cards]

"Buut Buut Buut... all muh Trae bassssss"

This is good work OP. I bet it's helped you realize what a lot of people out there haven't yet realized: More recent stuff is WAAYYY more produced that even 5 years ago.

Now, I'm not here being chicken little, saying it's all going to come crashing down. But I am saying that eventually something has to give, and IMO it's going to be the heavily produced cards of guys that don't turn out to be real superstars.

Agreed, and if my numbers are right, almost 2/3 of Trae base haven't even been graded yet, so his market cap would only go up. I don't think the card market will ever be perfectly efficient but it's crazy that there might be ~15 players from the 2018-19 drafts with higher market caps than a guy like Harden (Kawhi and Davis probably aren't much higher than Harden too). When the disparity is that large, something has to give

[jcardstore]

Agreed, and if my numbers are right, almost 2/3 of Trae base haven't even been graded yet, so his market cap would only go up. I don't think the card market will ever be perfectly efficient but it's crazy that there might be ~15 players from the 2018-19 drafts with higher market caps than a guy like Harden (Kawhi and Davis probably aren't much higher than Harden too). When the disparity is that large, something has to give

It's because people bake in multiple MVPs and titles to these young guys and prices naturally go down over time because it's rare that any player lives up to the hype.

Unless Trae wins multiple titles, scoring titles, MVPs, etc... his cards will most definitely go down across the board. Not this year, maybe not next year but over the next few years it'll be a gradual decrease.

I've learned that there is a window between year 1 and year 2 and then possibly carried into year 3 but without sustained success it never lasts past that, no matter how good you are.

[kobebeast2020]

It's because people bake in multiple MVPs and titles to these young guys and prices naturally go down over time because it's rare that any player lives up to the hype.

Unless Trae wins multiple titles, scoring titles, MVPs, etc... his cards will most definitely go down across the board. Not this year, maybe not next year but over the next few years it'll be a gradual decrease.

I've learned that there is a window between year 1 and year 2 and then possibly carried into year 3 but without sustained success it never lasts past that, no matter how good you are.

That is most likely because there is always that new shiny star in the rookie class that everyone focuses on.

I remember getting inserts in the 90's that were worth 50-300$ now they're worth 5$

[gmoney000]

Trae Young > Harden

and who wants to buy some base from me at $226. Let's do this

[smitdavi]

Nice work!

[GeechQuest]

Agreed, and if my numbers are right, almost 2/3 of Trae base haven't even been graded yet, so his market cap would only go up. I don't think the card market will ever be perfectly efficient but it's crazy that there might be ~15 players from the 2018-19 drafts with higher market caps than a guy like Harden (Kawhi and Davis probably aren't much higher than Harden too). When the disparity is that large, something has to give

Good work man. You’re right, something does have to give and eventually these things work themselves out over the years. The hobby also shifts its tastes over time and different things experience runs.

Trae has the investor crowd’s ear, but there will always be a new investment player. Will Trae have a hardcore collecting base to sustain his pricing? Doubtful because I can count on one hand the players who have collecting bases like that.

[MIRRABB]

Trae Young > Harden

and who wants to buy some base from me at $226. Let's do this

Trae Young > Lebron

Can't hide money!

[yiguiri2002]

Nice work OP. It's always cool seeing people doing stuff like this. If I may, I would offer some suggestions to the methodology:

- Check boards and historical info on the releases and you can get better accuracy on the print runs. Purple Wave was supposed to be 300 based on its hit ratio vs Green Pulsars. Pink Ice and Red Ice were supposed to have the same (or a similar) print run too. It's a pain in the ass but it's worth it in the long run.

- Even though it doesn't make that much of a difference, some of those price could be adjusted. Searching the boards helps a lot. Even with so many Trae collectors (and pumpers), I can't see his Black or Nebula costing 3x of Harden's Superfractor.

Nice work, hopefully more of this come in the future!

[Derekbauer]

This is great work. Here's my real question

If there is $30 million dollars in estimated value in JUST TRAE YOUNG PRIZM what do you think the total cap of the whole industry is right now?

$500 billion? a trillion?

Also think your research plays into the narrative here at BO. Invest in low numbered, low pop items. Stay away from the new base!

[Jopeal]

Long story short, Lukas Prizms are the most expensive in the hobby by a wide margin.

[massina cards]

Nice work OP. It's always cool seeing people doing stuff like this. If I may, I would offer some suggestions to the methodology:

- Check boards and historical info on the releases and you can get better accuracy on the print runs. Purple Wave was supposed to be 300 based on its hit ratio vs Green Pulsars. Pink Ice and Red Ice were supposed to have the same (or a similar) print run too. It's a pain in the ass but it's worth it in the long run.

- Even though it doesn't make that much of a difference, some of those price could be adjusted. Searching the boards helps a lot. Even with so many Trae collectors (and pumpers), I can't see his Black or Nebula costing 3x of Harden's Superfractor.

Nice work, hopefully more of this come in the future!
Yes, I agree. I'm sure some of the estimates are off. I focused the most on determining print run and average value for base and silver because those alone compose almost 2/3 of his market cap. I think I did a solid job determining print run and obviously there is plenty of sales data for those 2.

This chart definitely isn't very useful for someone who wants to determine the value of a red shimmer rookie for example, but the lower print run cards which were toughest to value have a marginal impact on overall market cap which was my main concern

Crosschecking my print run projections with release info or watching numerous breaks would definitely yield better results but that would be a much bigger project. This looks like a lot but I was still able to complete it all in one night.

Regardless, I think the main takeaway is the proportion between Trae prices and a comparable player like Harden. Whether Trae's actual market cap is 10x higher or 15x higher, I think the general message is the same

[Karnage]

Thank you for doing this! I would love to revisit this thread in 5 -10 years. We should make a note here to pin this in 2025 and see where these 2 cards and market caps have gone using the same metrics.

[massina cards]

This is great work. Here's my real question

If there is $30 million dollars in estimated value in JUST TRAE YOUNG PRIZM what do you think the total cap of the whole industry is right now?

$500 billion? a trillion?

Also think your research plays into the narrative here at BO. Invest in low numbered, low pop items. Stay away from the new base!
Lol that's one hell of a question. My initial thought would be less- maybe $100 billion? But who knows.. would be very interesting if someone ever came up with a manageable way to calculate that

[GeechQuest]

This is great work. Here's my real question

If there is $30 million dollars in estimated value in JUST TRAE YOUNG PRIZM what do you think the total cap of the whole industry is right now?

$500 billion? a trillion?

Also think your research plays into the narrative here at BO. Invest in low numbered, low pop items. Stay away from the new base!

The industry as a whole is worth a ton, and has tons of investment not in the cards themselves but in the different ways to navigate through the industry.

-Better selling platforms
-Better trading platforms
-Better grading platforms
-Better liquidity

The hobby itself is completely antiquated and still stuck in yesteryear. The person who can revamp how we consume cards and how really hammer out a secondary marketplace for our collectibles will be worth 9 figures. There are tons of markets out there, but I've yet to see one that is truly efficient.

[davemri]

awesome analysis. I would love to see the Luka vs Lebron stats. Great work :)!

[rangeljon]

Great work, OP.

I would add some of my own thoughts...

Yes, 2009-10 was easily most limited modern rookie run pre-Panini. Yes, 2018-19 was easily the most mass produced Panini rookie run (until this year).

But, in how I collect and determine what I think is worth holding long-term, this is where I'm at:

Hobby color (numbered). Period. It's the only thing that matters in comparing the two. And when you do, you get a better picture of its scarcity relative to past sets:

Total Trae Hobby Color (#d): 911

Total Harden (#d): 1500 (Topps/Bowman got it right in late aughts at end of run in serial numbering some key base Rookie sets)

Further, factor in a few outstanding SSPs: Tiger, White Sparkle, FOTL, Retail #d, and you're still no where near Harden total print run. Yes, this excludes Fast Break.

That would be my logic as I navigate how to collect.

It's certainly not reflected in the market currently, but I'm fine waiting -- I'm not cool enough for base cards, anyway.

[massina cards]

awesome analysis. I would love to see the Luka vs Lebron stats. Great work :)!

Well based on my Trae analysis, you can multiply his market cap by 2.5 to get an estimate of Luka (Luka silver/base gets about 2.5x Trae silver/base). I would also add a little more because more Lukas have been graded- so I might ballpark the Luka prizm market cap at about $90 million

Also I just did some quick math to determine lebron's market cap. This is an educated estimate that's not as refined as my other analyses but I'd ballpark lebron's topps chrome rookie market cap at $182 million

[massina cards]

Great work, OP.

I would add some of my own thoughts...

Yes, 2009-10 was easily most limited modern rookie run pre-Panini. Yes, 2018-19 was easily the most mass produced Panini rookie run (until this year).

But, in how I collect and determine what I think is worth holding long-term, this is where I'm at:

Hobby color (numbered). Period. It's the only thing that matters in comparing the two. And when you do, you get a better picture of its scarcity relative to past sets:

Total Trae Hobby Color (#d): 911

Total Harden (#d): 15000 (Topps/Bowman got it right in late aughts at end of run in serial numbering some key base Rookie sets)

Further, factor in a few outstanding SSPs: Tiger, White Sparkle, FOTL, Retail #d, and you're still no where near Harden total print run. Yes, this excludes Fast Break.

That would be my logic as I navigate how to collect.

It's certainly not reflected in the market currently, but I'm fine waiting -- I'm not cool enough for base cards, anyway.

Not sure i agree with you there. First of all, Harden's TC print run is 1,550 total, not 15,000. Also, maybe base/silver in recent years of prizm will come back to earth but it will always be worth a substantial amount. Trae's prizm market cap will always be determined by far more than his colored serial numbered cards

[rangeljon]

Not sure i agree with you there. First of all, Harden's TC print run is 1,550 total, not 15,000. Also, maybe base/silver in recent years of prizm will come back to earth but it will always be worth a substantial amount. Trae's prizm market cap will always be determined by far more than his colored serial numbered cards

Lol. Yeah, it's one too many zeros on my part.

I'm also not concerned about market cap when there are literally 10s of thousands more Traes than Hardens.

Further. I'm honestly just chiming in with some (my own) perspective on scarcity and where I see the value being mostly. There's no denying Silver value. But that's just not my cup of Trae.

[Stackfan]

First, i'd like to say good analysis....


Secondly.... i wonder if things will ever get to a point, where the hobby is OVER- analyzing population reports; and it impacts the value. Like the MJ rookie for example.... no one care if it's 10K or 50K produced. I just don't want to see the hobby get SO focused on populations and data.... that ultimately; only numbered cards hold value. The hobby always goes based on Hype... which is good and bad; but going so far into analysis; moves further away from hype. The smart collectors/investors know the data side of it and the hype side of it.

[massina cards]

First, i'd like to say good analysis....


Secondly.... i wonder if things will ever get to a point, where the hobby is OVER- analyzing population reports; and it impacts the value. Like the MJ rookie for example.... no one care if it's 10K or 50K produced. I just don't want to see the hobby get SO focused on populations and data.... that ultimately; only numbered cards hold value. The hobby always goes based on Hype... which is good and bad; but going so far into analysis; moves further away from hype. The smart collectors/investors know the data side of it and the hype side of it.


Thanks, I agree with your premise. I definitely think base will always hold significant value, I have plenty myself (mostly early prizm). Base is the standard and I think has emerged as almost like a stock- it’s widespread, easy to buy/sell and determine value. And silver prizm might be the most iconic card of the panini era. I do however think people should pay more attention to print runs when evaluating cards. If Trae cards were twice as expensive as Harden due to hype then I wouldn’t have a problem with it, but Trae’s market cap is about 12x higher than Harden. That’s a huge disparity.

As for your MJ analogy, I think that’s different because I only looked at one brand from 2018, Trae also has many many optic, select, hoops cards that further increase the market cap (not to mention the high end stuff). Jordan (basically) only had the fleer so there’s not any competition from other brands. Jordan is also the most valuable player of all time so demand for his cards should be able to keep up with a high supply


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[Jopeal]

Thanks, I agree with your premise. I definitely think base will always hold significant value, I have plenty myself (mostly early prizm). Base is the standard and I think has emerged as almost like a stock- it’s widespread, easy to buy/sell and determine value. And silver prizm might be the most iconic card of the panini era. I do however think people should pay more attention to print runs when evaluating cards. If Trae cards were twice as expensive as Harden due to hype then I wouldn’t have a problem with it, but Trae’s market cap is about 12x higher than Harden. That’s a huge disparity.

As for your MJ analogy, I think that’s different because I only looked at one brand from 2018, Trae also has many many optic, select, hoops cards that further increase the market cap (not to mention the high end stuff). Jordan (basically) only had the fleer so there’s not any competition from other brands. Jordan is also the most valuable player of all time so demand for his cards should be able to keep up with a high supply


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The major issue I have with your analysis is that comparing 2018 Prizm Trae to 2009 Topps Chrome Harden (by far the most anomalous year in modern basketball cards) is not a reasonable way of gauging each players value in the hobby.

If you had factored in Hardens Topps base market cap on top of the Chrome, you would maybe be getting a bit closer to a fair comparison between players & sets but even that would be a flawed comparison.

If you compare Trae's National Treasures or Contenders to Harden, you'll find the ratios are much closer between the two players, which is surprising considering Harden is not a well collected player and in a stagnant place in his career at age 31 and with low future upside as of today.

There's also a reason why Allen Iverson cards sell for significantly higher than Karl Malone's which can't be measured through a statistical comparison of their careers.

[Jopeal]

The industry as a whole is worth a ton, and has tons of investment not in the cards themselves but in the different ways to navigate through the industry.

-Better selling platforms
-Better trading platforms
-Better grading platforms
-Better liquidity

The hobby itself is completely antiquated and still stuck in yesteryear. The person who can revamp how we consume cards and how really hammer out a secondary marketplace for our collectibles will be worth 9 figures. There are tons of markets out there, but I've yet to see one that is truly efficient.

This is an important thread topic in and of itself.

There are so many inefficiencies in the current transaction market, it's difficult to properly gauge the value of most cards.

[massina cards]

The major issue I have with your analysis is that comparing 2018 Prizm Trae to 2009 Topps Chrome Harden (by far the most anomalous year in modern basketball cards) is not a reasonable way of gauging each players value in the hobby.

If you had factored in Hardens Topps base market cap on top of the Chrome, you would maybe be getting a bit closer to a fair comparison between players & sets but even that would be a flawed comparison.

If you compare Trae's National Treasures or Contenders to Harden, you'll find the ratios are much closer between the two players, which is surprising considering Harden is not a well collected player and in a stagnant place in his career at age 31 and with low future upside as of today.

There's also a reason why Allen Iverson cards sell for significantly higher than Karl Malone's which can't be measured through a statistical comparison of their careers.


Absolutely, I agree that 2009 is an anomalous year. That’s why I also included a chart for Giannis, not sure if you saw it. Giannis’ 2013 Prizm market cap is comparable to Trae’s 2018.

However, I don’t think including 2009 Topps with 2009 Topps Chrome to compare to 2018 Prizm would be fair. I could just as easily tell you to add the market cap of 2018 optic, 2018 select, and 2018 hoops to Trae’s Prizm market cap. Combined, those brands have have a far greater market cap than 2009 Topps.

You’re absolutely right that comparing national treasures is the clearest comparison.. looks like Trae NT might get 3x more than Harden NT which might be a little high but is still much more reasonable. However, the point of my analysis wasn’t to trash Trae, it was just to show how the card market generally ignores the exceedingly high print run from recent Prizm years.


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[bberns]

Great work OP. This doesn't even account for the fact that Trae has so many more RC options than Harden. Yikes.

[k13]

You forget supply is only one equation.
Demand is the other one and more important.

[Jopeal]

Absolutely, I agree that 2009 is an anomalous year. That’s why I also included a chart for Giannis, not sure if you saw it. Giannis’ 2013 Prizm market cap is comparable to Trae’s 2018.

However, I don’t think including 2009 Topps with 2009 Topps Chrome to compare to 2018 Prizm would be fair. I could just as easily tell you to add the market cap of 2018 optic, 2018 select, and 2018 hoops to Trae’s Prizm market cap. Combined, those brands have have a far greater market cap than 2009 Topps.

You’re absolutely right that comparing national treasures is the clearest comparison.. looks like Trae NT might get 3x more than Harden NT which might be a little high but is still much more reasonable. However, the point of my analysis wasn’t to trash Trae, it was just to show how the card market generally ignores the exceedingly high print run from recent Prizm years.


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I thought the Giannis-Trae comparison was interesting. The complication with Giannis' market is that because of lower pops and rising demand there is no entry tier to buying into his Prizm, where as with Trae there's a much greater window to get a piece of the action either with his base or his Silver.

Giannis' market cap is now falling victim to a short supply phenomenon for the every man collector, and Hardens is an even more extreme case of the same issue.

The shortfall of a market cap analysis across years is that it doesn't account for lost value due to entry level collectors being priced out of certain players' Prizm/Chrome base RC. It's likely Giannis' Prizm market cap is missing out of an extra $10-15M of potential lower-end demand due to short supply of his Base & Silver Prizm RC.

[tyrith]

Players at the beginning of their career will ALWAYS carry a premium versus a player in the middle or later of their career. And the premium I'm talking about isn't because of hype and profit seeking, although those are definitely both real. But you have to remember why cards exist.

Cards are collectibles. If there aren't a big section of people that put money in the cards because of the intrinsic pleasure of owning them, there's no hobby.

Owning cards of a player you liked as a kid, or that you really appreciate what they've done in their career so far, can be really valuable in that context. But what's the most valuable? Having the possibility of doing that while also getting to own the cards while the player proves themselves. You get to appreciate your collection while it grows in value with your player. You get to show off to people that you believed in them before they were the MVP or 5 time All-Star or whatever they're going to be. You get to live that players career as it happens with the collection, not just as a memory.

The OP has some very valid points, and I love the data. It makes me think we should be paying more for #ed Prizm parallels in particular. But you can't take a player that's 26 and compare them to a player that's 22 and say the entire difference is due to insanity. You don't pay for the amusement park for the roller coaster coming back into the station. The thrill is in the ride.

[massina cards]

You forget supply is only one equation.
Demand is the other one and more important.


Haha I actually taught economics last year so I get the demand aspect, but I think it’s fair to assume that if the supply of harden and Trae rookies was identical, the disparity in market cap would not be nearly as high


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[massina cards]

I thought the Giannis-Trae comparison was interesting. The complication with Giannis' market is that because of lower pops and rising demand there is no entry tier to buying into his Prizm, where as with Trae there's a much greater window to get a piece of the action either with his base or his Silver.

Giannis' market cap is now falling victim to a short supply phenomenon for the every man collector, and Hardens is an even more extreme case of the same issue.

The shortfall of a market cap analysis across years is that it doesn't account for lost value due to entry level collectors being priced out of certain players' Prizm/Chrome base RC. It's likely Giannis' Prizm market cap is missing out of an extra $10-15M of potential lower-end demand due to short supply of his Base & Silver Prizm RC.

I think your "every man collector" point is interesting. Giannis Prizm is definitely not attainable for all collectors/investors. However, it's fair to assume that your every day collectors who can't afford a Giannis Prizm don't have nearly as much influence in the overall market as the investors who are stock piling dozens of Trae base, and could just as easily use that money to buy a few Giannis Prizm

[Jopeal]

I think your "every man collector" point is interesting. Giannis Prizm is definitely not attainable for all collectors/investors. However, it's fair to assume that your every day collectors who can't afford a Giannis Prizm don't have nearly as much influence in the overall market as the investors who are stock piling dozens of Trae base, and could just as easily use that money to buy a few Giannis Prizm

It's difficult to quantify how each cards price is being influenced and by whom.
Giannis' Silver Prizm (& other parallels) are well above the means of most collectors at their current price where as Trae is still attainable at Mint 9 and below.
I think it's relevant.

If only taking into account Prizms of value $1k and above, Giannis commands a significantly higher market cap than Trae. That lends itself to my speculation that Trae's (among others') market is to a much greater extent driven by the demand of lower tier buyers/investors.

My assumption is Traes value is being driven by it's relationship to Lukas, which is the cleanest comparison we could hope for in the market.
Given the current trajectory of Trae & Lukas careers, it seems reasonable that his card is selling for ~1/3rd of Lukas given each players current circumstances, demand and potential.

Cross-comparing players' values across years of Prizm/Chrome is more dicey. I often to use other sets to gauge player value when comparing players of varying rookie seasons.

[tjforce]

First, i'd like to say good analysis....


Secondly.... i wonder if things will ever get to a point, where the hobby is OVER- analyzing population reports; and it impacts the value. Like the MJ rookie for example.... no one care if it's 10K or 50K produced. I just don't want to see the hobby get SO focused on populations and data.... that ultimately; only numbered cards hold value. The hobby always goes based on Hype... which is good and bad; but going so far into analysis; moves further away from hype. The smart collectors/investors know the data side of it and the hype side of it.

Legendary players like MJ and LeBron might not get hammered on important cards with high pop that bad, but the next tier down onwards always will.

Take the 86 Fleer Barkley, for example. It's Barkley's rookie the same way that the 86 MJ is his rookie. The guy is a top 25 player all time, and a TV personality.

Yet, you can pick up a PSA 7 1986 Fleer for $170. The PSA 7 and better pop of that card is about 5700, compared to over 7700 PSA 10 Trae Prizms.

With the exception of truly transcendent guys... population will win out over time.



*Additional note: There have now been about 25% more Luka Prizm Base ever graded than 86 Jordan base.

There have also been over 10,000 Luka Prizm Parallels graded (50% of the total Jordan Fleers)

And this is all just at PSA #overproduced #notreallythatrare #fakescarcity #exceptforparallelsthatreallymatterlikeGold,Mojo,Etc #thisguybetterbetheathleteofthedecadeorelse #hecouldbe

[KD35Russ0]

First off - good analysis resulting in great discussion.

I would say that one of the flaws in the discussion thus far is that you seem to be taking the Harden market cap as the "true/base/constant" case. I don't think we can do that. The fact is, in this market where there is so much demand, I'm not sure which of these players represents the reality of the demand.

If we were to remove the unpredictable 1/1's, Harden has ~$2.5M in market cap from 1550 cards. Since no more were made, those are by definition, the 1550 rarest cards in the Harden sample. If you then take the ~1550 rarest Trae's (through Blue /199 on your chart) you get a market cap of ~5.7M. So, about a 2.25x mark up on the Trae. I think that's certainly interesting and worth noting, but it does tell a different story. I'd venture to guess that if Harden had as many cards trickling down to a true base version (not one #'d /999) in Topps Chrome, that 2.25x would hold and there would be plenty of demand for Harden's base + other variations before we reached the /999 version.

I don't think that a 2.25x mark up is insane. As many have said, Trae still has tons of promise, theoretical upside, and is just newer. We know what Harden is. Aesthetically speaking, Trae's game is significantly more enjoyable to watch (imo) than Harden's.

To me, it would be more interesting to see how Trae stacks up to Steph's Topps Chrome RC from that same Harden year from a market cap perspective considering that is the most common comp that people make for Trae (although I think most would agree it's a long shot for him to reach peak Curry). Back of the napkin:

Steph /999 base: $10,000 = $9,990,000
Steph /500 ref: $25,000 = $12,500,000
Steph /50 gold: $100,000 = $5,000,000

Total market cap = ~27.5M

Compare that again to Trae ~1550 "rarest" Prizm cards' market cap of $5.7M and Steph is trading at almost 5x higher, which to me makes a lot of sense considering his iconic status at this point. And if people do think Trae is going to turn into Steph, maybe those 1550 "rarest" Trae's are actually undervalued?

Compare it to the market cap of ~32.2M you calculated for all of Trae, and they are pretty darn close.

[massina cards]

First off - good analysis resulting in great discussion.

I would say that one of the flaws in the discussion thus far is that you seem to be taking the Harden market cap as the "true/base/constant" case. I don't think we can do that. The fact is, in this market where there is so much demand, I'm not sure which of these players represents the reality of the demand.

If we were to remove the unpredictable 1/1's, Harden has ~$2.5M in market cap from 1550 cards. Since no more were made, those are by definition, the 1550 rarest cards in the Harden sample. If you then take the ~1550 rarest Trae's (through Blue /199 on your chart) you get a market cap of ~5.7M. So, about a 2.25x mark up on the Trae. I think that's certainly interesting and worth noting, but it does tell a different story. I'd venture to guess that if Harden had as many cards trickling down to a true base version (not one #'d /999) in Topps Chrome, that 2.25x would hold and there would be plenty of demand for Harden's base + other variations before we reached the /999 version.

I don't think that a 2.25x mark up is insane. As many have said, Trae still has tons of promise, theoretical upside, and is just newer. We know what Harden is. Aesthetically speaking, Trae's game is significantly more enjoyable to watch (imo) than Harden's.

To me, it would be more interesting to see how Trae stacks up to Steph's Topps Chrome RC from that same Harden year from a market cap perspective considering that is the most common comp that people make for Trae (although I think most would agree it's a long shot for him to reach peak Curry). Back of the napkin:

Steph /999 base: $10,000 = $9,990,000
Steph /500 ref: $25,000 = $12,500,000
Steph /50 gold: $100,000 = $5,000,000

Total market cap = ~27.5M

Compare that again to Trae ~1550 "rarest" Prizm cards' market cap of $5.7M and Steph is trading at almost 5x higher, which to me makes a lot of sense considering his iconic status at this point. And if people do think Trae is going to turn into Steph, maybe those 1550 "rarest" Trae's are actually undervalued?

Compare it to the market cap of ~32.2M you calculated for all of Trae, and they are pretty darn close.


Thanks for your response but honestly I think there’s a major flaw in your analysis. You said that the market cap of Trae’s 1550 rarest cards is ~$5.7 million.. about 2.25x harden’s market cap. However there’s roughly 65,000 total Trae’s in the print run so if you’re just going to hypothetically get rid of 98% of those (over $25 million worth of Trae prizm) then the value of the rarest 1550 would be worth far more than it is under current circumstances. So the 2.25 multiple wouldn’t hold up

Honestly this wasn’t meant to be a comparison between them as players as much as a comparison of how print run affects market cap. I understand that Trae might get more hobby love and might eventually have a good enough supporting cast to win a chip unlike harden. But just looking at their ceilings as individual basketball players, I think it’s a fair comparison. To put it simply, harden is ok on defense, Trae is possibly the worst in the league, therefore for Trae to be a better player overall, he would have to be substantially better than harden offensively. Harden is one of the greatest offensive players ever (honestly I’m not a big fan either but the dude can ball lol)

Btw I liked your quick curry market cap numbers. I was surprised to see how high it is but it looks like a solid estimate


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[KD35Russ0]

Thanks for your response but honestly I think there’s a major flaw in your analysis. You said that the market cap of Trae’s 1550 rarest cards is ~$5.7 million.. about 2.25x harden’s market cap. However there’s roughly 65,000 total Trae’s in the print run so if you’re just going to hypothetically get rid of 98% of those (over $25 million worth of Trae prizm) then the value of the rarest 1550 would be worth far more than it is under current circumstances. So the 2.25 multiple wouldn’t hold up

Honestly this wasn’t meant to be a comparison between them as players as much as a comparison of how print run affects market cap. I understand that Trae might get more hobby love and might eventually have a good enough supporting cast to win a chip unlike harden. But just looking at their ceilings as individual basketball players, I think it’s a fair comparison. To put it simply, harden is ok on defense, Trae is possibly the worst in the league, therefore for Trae to be a better player overall, he would have to be substantially better than harden offensively. Harden is one of the greatest offensive players ever (honestly I’m not a big fan either but the dude can ball lol)

Btw I liked your quick curry market cap numbers. I was surprised to see how high it is but it looks like a solid estimate


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I’m not saying to get rid of the Traes, I’m saying that to compare apples to apples looking at the rarest 1550 is interesting. Additionally what I was trying to say is that I’m sure there would be a lot more demand for other Harden Topps chrome cards, should they exist. The Harden market cap is artificially low.


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[FantasyMagic]

What would happen to Harden’s overall cap value if you included Topps base print?

[massina cards]

What would happen to Harden’s overall cap value if you included Topps base print?


It would increase by ~$2 million. I’m pretty sure Topps Chrome has the highest market cap in 2009 and Topps is second. And you can play the same game with Trae- what if you add Optic, Select, Hoops?


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[Ferg1945]

~416 is a solid number.

It's always been speculated to be 350-400.