Predict the future of Prizm Basketball products...

[Stackfan]

It's no secret that Panini produces a lot of prizm-related (opti-chrome) products... with the standard prizm product being the most popular & highly printed. So what does Prizm and the hobby look like in a few years??? Think our answers will be vary wildy; so i didn't want to create a poll.


To me; each product kind of serves a purpose:

Prizm - Key iconic rookies & Paralells.. highly sought after...highly produced; BUT still no where near demand.

Optic - Kind of like the brother/sister to Prizm. Nice, clean, simple set design; with some on card auto's. more limited; but still highly produced. Probably the second best product next to prizm imo.

Select - Hobby only; has on card auto's... 3 tiers.... which is good and bad imo. Saying Select will take over is a bold statement imo... but certainly value to the limited nature of these cards. I think the biggest thing holding select back; is there is not 1 "key / must have" rookie for these sets. Other than 2013-14 Giannis rookie year.

Mosaic - Kind of more of a good thing in the prizm line. I know some people are turning on it; but these might be the "sleeper" set for 2019-20 as it's first year. Silver Mosaic's are the best parallel by far this year; and semi-affordable!

Spectra - This one to me; never found it's mark. I had to double check if it even released this year. Good idea in theory but the hobby just never got on board. Probably one of the rarest sets; and hobby only. This should be an all on card auto product imo.

Obsidian - Could be another sleep product. Different look/feel. Although with it being hobby only / limited; the key cards just get so expensive so quick.

Premium Hoops / Clearly Donruss - Who knows if these sets will continue past this year. Clearly just meeting the huge demand for 2019-20 products.


Then you got your High End Sets Flawless, National Treasure, Immaculate, etc etc..... Then you got your Court Kings; Revolution



So with all that said, what do you think the future will hold? Does Panini keep Producing prizm below demand? Does it remain the "Key/Iconic" rookie card?? Does another product steal the spotlight?

While i see other products doing well in the future : Mosaic's (in a few years) select (more near term) then can see increase in value for like Obsidian/Spectra as well at some point. But i really don't see any of these products replacing prizm as the "iconic" set. If any; i think it would be Optic.. but Prizm needs to screw up before that happens. The other set that is probably flying way under the radar is Crusade. Great look to these cards; at a fraction of the price. I'm glad Panini hasn't discontinued these. I don't see if taking over anything; but certainly a under valued set... and that might be because some years/sets it's a true rookie and other years not.

Curious to see what the others think about this and future of basketball. What do you like/don't like? What's the future look like.

[jfan2024]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

[dasiegel]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

lolol, never going to happen

[Stackfan]

The card market has always been driven by "key" or Iconic rookie cards. Look at the MJ Fleer, Chrome Kobe, Lebron Chrome etc; griffey upper deck...etc.

Not saying Prizm would ever lose some value; but i think a set would need to replace it... to lose a lot of value. It's always dependent on the player too. If Zion breaks his leg bad; his cards are going to be a race for the bottom.

[jcardstore]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/SqfTz0T9bWFlmrzxqz/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e4767e34yb7wx8x1qjwkt0529e9xtd7q3clei3e97n7&rid=giphy.gif

[mossoholic]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

Could be right but the number of people collecting right now is max 5%. I would say probably 2-3%. Pretty hilarious considering just 2 years ago it was 95% collector 5% investor.

[Zacy87]

I personally like Select Courtsides over Optic or Prizm.

Just my opinion but they're also a lot more SP'd

[GeechQuest]

I think all the products just become muddled together and pull from each other. I’ve personally transitioned away from chromium stock cards because they just run together at this point. I suspect more will eventually as well.

They do serve their purpose though as the commoditization of the hobby continues. I don’t know anybody who collects chromium stuff anymore at this point.

[JoeAdam]

Could be right but the number of people collecting right now is max 5%. I would say probably 2-3%. Pretty hilarious considering just 2 years ago it was 95% collector 5% investor.

Without collectors the current market will fall apart. I would agree with you that 95% of people in the hobby right now are doing it to make money. Very few people build sets, collect players or collect teams. I've got tons of Zion cards, I don't collect Zion but I'm hoping to sell them for more down the road. I don't want any of the cards I have for the prices I paid.

[tracymcgravy]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

That's my whole thing with the Luka Prizm. In 2020, the hobby exploded - heck, even I got back into it in November 2019 - but I get crazy looks when I tell people printed rectangles of cardboard are selling 4, 5, and 6 figures on the daily. Obv the hobby has grown but it's still a relatively small market. I just don't see 15,000 people on earth willing to pay $1,500 (btw that's A LOT of money) for a glossy piece of paper. I'm not hating on the hobby. I love it, and I have spent what I consider to be a large chunk of change on cards this year, but I just don't think there are 15,000 people out there who view pieces of paper the same way I do or other people on the forum do.

[RogerGodahell]

Prizm is Prizm it's still gonna be top dog this year, next year, etc. until something better comes along which i don't see on the horizon.

Basically the others are gonna be about the same tier as they've been over the last couple years also imo. Optic, Select...then take your pick. That's obviously mid high end. There really is no low end anymore. NT, Flawless, Immaculate will still hold their respective spots as well in the upper tier. That's my personal rankings. Everyone has their own opinions though.

I don't see anything flaming out anytime soon but i could be wrong. It's going exactly how people predicted last year. Zion mania then a down year and next year will be another big boom with a better draft class. Then we got Bronny coming down the pipeline in a couple more years.

I don't see anything slowing down. Especially with all the influencers and social media. That type of thing is only growing. Youtube and influencers are growing like crazy. Had this same conversation in the MJ thread. People love collectibles and alternative investments. Neither of those things are slowing down they're growing. Especially with tv shows like American Pickers, TMZ promoting sports cards, influencers like Gary V, Vegas Dave, Giannis collecting his own cards, Luka saying im gonna need some of those when a reporter told him how much some of his cards are selling for.

Card question at 2:10 into the video

/JkvQQpZek4Q?t=131

[mossoholic]

Without collectors the current market will fall apart. I would agree with you that 95% of people in the hobby right now are doing it to make money. Very few people build sets, collect players or collect teams. I've got tons of Zion cards, I don't collect Zion but I'm hoping to sell them for more down the road. I don't want any of the cards I have for the prices I paid.

I don't think the market will fall apart as long as someone is always willing to pay more. You can't tell me anyone is buying a 19-20 Prizm blaster at $450 to collect. It's an investment. As long as someone else is willing to pay more it doesn't matter that it makes no sense. It's the same thing with the stock market right now. Collectibles in general. Bitcoin. As long as everyone doesn't all panic and try to sell everything will continue to go up.

[ninjacookies]

Buy crypto.

[ThoseBackPages]

bright

[Anish]

I don't think the market will fall apart as long as someone is always willing to pay more. You can't tell me anyone is buying a 19-20 Prizm blaster at $450 to collect. It's an investment. As long as someone else is willing to pay more it doesn't matter that it makes no sense. It's the same thing with the stock market right now. Collectibles in general. Bitcoin. As long as everyone doesn't all panic and try to sell everything will continue to go up.

Isn’t that basically the definition of a bubble? Like you said, no one wants to own most of these items at the prices they paid - they just want to sell them to a “greater fool”.

All investments are tied to some intrinsic value, and for cards it’s what a collector is willing to pay to own and enjoy it. It seems like for a lot of cards the “market value” has become absurdly detached from the intrinsic value.

[patchgenie]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

sorry sir, but cards only go UP

[asujbl]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

This is... something.

Super wrong

But something

[yiguiri2002]

Could be right but the number of people collecting right now is max 5%. I would say probably 2-3%. Pretty hilarious considering just 2 years ago it was 95% collector 5% investor.

Are you talking about volume of cards or people?

I consider myself a collector but I also invest in cards. I'll be here even if the card market crashes. If I fall under collector, it's way higher than 2-3%.

[asujbl]

That's my whole thing with the Luka Prizm. In 2020, the hobby exploded - heck, even I got back into it in November 2019 - but I get crazy looks when I tell people printed rectangles of cardboard are selling 4, 5, and 6 figures on the daily. Obv the hobby has grown but it's still a relatively small market. I just don't see 15,000 people on earth willing to pay $1,500 (btw that's A LOT of money) for a glossy piece of paper. I'm not hating on the hobby. I love it, and I have spent what I consider to be a large chunk of change on cards this year, but I just don't think there are 15,000 people out there who view pieces of paper the same way I do or other people on the forum do.

This is such a rookie take

As the forum is like 2% of the market

You’ll be shocked to learn like a billion collectors/investors don’t post on Blowout like us weirdos

They just buy and stash

[bigjbasketball]

I don’t understand where people come up with these made-up percentages of collectors vs. investors in the hobby. I see people all the time that say there’s only 5% collectors and the rest are investors. Where are you getting these estimates from? Do you just feel that way because you can’t find retail and prices are increasing, so that means that it’s all because of investors and there are no collectors? There are still plenty of collectors out there, not everyone is an investor dork.

[mvp]

All I know is I want Panini to dump 80% of the trash products and release a premium / Prizm Luminance set.

Would be one of the releases of the year.

[asujbl]

I don’t understand where people come up with these made-up percentages of collectors vs. investors in the hobby. I see people all the time that say there’s only 5% collectors and the rest are investors. Where are you getting these estimates from? Do you just feel that way because you can’t find retail and prices are increasing, so that means that it’s all because of investors and there are no collectors? There are still plenty of collectors out there, not everyone is an investor dork.

Are you quoting me without quoting me?

Because it’s quite easy to judge market vs. the small percentage of Blowout members

If you aren’t talking to me than ignore me

[bigjbasketball]

Are you quoting me without quoting me?

Because it’s quite easy to judge market vs. the small percentage of Blowout members

If you aren’t talking to me than ignore me

No I wasn’t specifically referencing your post, but I wanted to respond anyway because I agree that Blowout is a very small percentage of the overall collecting base that’s out there. I was just saying that I don’t see how anyone can accurately calculate any sort of collector vs. investor percentage. And when they do, it’s always so heavily weighted to investors rather than collectors. I still see a lot of collectors out there, especially on Instagram. Tons of real collectors with all kinds of unique collections, not just investors. I could be wrong as well though, I’m definitely not an authority on this issue.

[mc1]

I don't think the market will fall apart as long as someone is always willing to pay more. You can't tell me anyone is buying a 19-20 Prizm blaster at $450 to collect. It's an investment. As long as someone else is willing to pay more it doesn't matter that it makes no sense. It's the same thing with the stock market right now. Collectibles in general. Bitcoin. As long as everyone doesn't all panic and try to sell everything will continue to go up.

Investing? Some folks still buy to break. Even at these prices. Thats called gambling i reckon.

[Rooftop]

Prefer Select over Prizm

[ThoseBackPages]

Blowout is a very small row boat in the collecting ocean

[sebreg]

I like Noir, Obsidian, Court Kings, and Select. But no clue as to what people will like or not like in future. People are weird, I can't spend my brain energy on the impossible task trying to figure out what people are going to like tomorrow let alone 10 years from now ;)

A lot of it comes down to whether there are significant shifts in how people view the supply side on some of these sets. Does the demand shift away from high-produced stuff and start premiuming the shorter print stuff? or do those high-produced sets remain in big-time demand, continue to be extremely liquid... the hobby seems fickle, hard to predict. PMGs took a long time to become big (I think), not really a thing people saw coming...

[rymflaherty]

Just a friendly reminder that it wasn’t called the “junk wax” era as it was occurring.
It was defined in that manner after the fact and after companies found a way to squeeze every penny from an influx of new and ravenous customers looking to make it rich.
I can vividly recall on multiple occasions, friends parents showing of cards they had purchased and gleefully explaining how it was going to pay for their kid’s college.

Now There are certainly factors that are different, so I would not wager on the proverbial bubble bursting quite as loudly,, but the point remains.

[matt roberson]

Could be right but the number of people collecting right now is max 5%. I would say probably 2-3%. Pretty hilarious considering just 2 years ago it was 95% collector 5% investor.

I think you guys get confused as the cost/value of cards and wax has taken over the threads and talk here. Sure a few Investerbois are louder than the rest of us and seem to dominate the conversations which may make it seem like there is more of them. Hide a few of them and see how quick the dynamic of some of these threads change. He’ll I hid like two morons for the (first time ever) in the last month and the threads already seem to be much more hobby focused and enjoyable to read..... now if people would stop feeding the trolls (quoting/replying) it would be even better lol.

I mostly post about values, products and trends that pertain to both, but I am and always have been a collector first. A lot of us were forced into this crazy market to offset the rising costs of the cards we do collect.

[Duke14]

There is no conflict for someone being both a "collector" and an "investor". Or even a "gambler" of the breaking thrill.

Certainly the rise has been a result of more people being interested in making money. But at least i believe most of them have at least a decent affection towards the respective sport (NBA).

PS. Since i am primarily a collector, any idea on whether there is a got-got-need thread for us hoping to complete a particular set of cards?
I have been trying to complete my optic insert collection for years...

[sebreg]

Just a friendly reminder that it wasn’t called the “junk wax” era as it was occurring.
It was defined in that manner after the fact and after companies found a way to squeeze every penny from an influx of new and ravenous customers looking to make it rich.
I can vividly recall on multiple occasions, friends parents showing of cards they had purchased and gleefully explaining how it was going to pay for their kid’s college.

Now There are certainly factors that are different, so I would not wager on the proverbial bubble bursting quite as loudly,, but the point remains.

Everything seems like it will keep going up forever in a bubble market, "It'll never go down, this is the new normal!" "So much money yet to be made!" the momentum seems unstoppable, everybody and their grandmother is getting in on the "action," and then, poof, winds shift, massive massive corrections, and a lot of people get weeded out because not as easy to make money when it's not a bull market and you can't sell the illusion of endless profits and hype anymore.

[sebreg]

Yeah, I love basketball, love collecting, love the community aspects, but the money aspect is also a factor for me. I don't know how I'd define myself when it comes to the whole collector/investor thing. I always just think I'd be lucky if I make any real money with cards, so for now it's an expensive diversion that hopefully maintains some of its value and doesn't end up costing me an arm and a leg.

[MikawlBBC]

As we all know, basketball has a global market and half a billion chinese crazy collectors will help sustain the market. Since things like crypto are going up, partially due to inflation, it gives me hope something tangible like cards will also go up... thoughts? Posted this in wrong thread, oops.

[mbuch21]

I’m long both basketball cards and crypto. I’m just wondering which bubble pops first...
Since basketball card investors almost exclusively buy RCs, and within that the greatest level of irrational exuberance is for PSA 10 Prizm RCs, that’s where the biggest pain is going to be when the investors run for the exits.
Just look at the last bitcoin crash as the perfect analog. 18k back down to 3k in a flash....
Then comes the next rise, like we are seeing in bitcoin now. Early markets are volatile. History will undoubtedly repeat itself. Plan accordingly.
FWIW, I maintain a benchmark card index using 25 highly liquid and demanded cards as a proxy for the market (mostly Prizm). I believe the current Prizm RC market is 3-5x overvalued versus what we will see during the correction, when Pop counts matter and demand dries up.
Tick tock.

[Tallboy]

Curious to see what the others think about this and future of basketball. What do you like/don't like? What's the future look like.

Love analyzing stuff like this. I'm someone who only recently got back in the hobby so there's a lot of context I'm probably blind to, but I'll share some thoughts:

1. I think a formula has been figured out for sustaining long-term desirability within a collectible niche. Sneakers, cards, Supreme, etc. I think in cards, Topps stumbled upon it with Chrome. Panini emulated that and made things even tighter with Prizm. I don't think there's any reason to think that collectors are going to turn away from Prizm specifically. I expect it to remain popular indefinitely so long as the hobby itself is thriving.

2. If (When) the hobby hits a severe depression, of course, everything will be hit hard, and of course it might die permanently it's caused by a massive disruption of society.

3. However, I can also see a scenario where the hobby rallies but Prizm drastically loses its place in the pecking order relative to more rare sets. There is more demand right now for Prizm basketball that possibly any product in trading cards, and as a result Panini can print a lot and still count on supply becoming scarce and desired. There's not necessarily reason to think that ever increasing the supply of Prizm will hurt its stature so long as demand remains ahead of that supply, but something happened that disrupted demand, that supply would then exceed demand for Prizm, while some of the more rare programs remained somewhat hard to get.

4. In (1) where I say I expect Prizm to thrive indefinitely short of major disruptions, I want to be clear that that doesn't mean that Prizm will always remain "King". Demand for Prizm can remain high while something else becomes even more in demand. (And I'll point to the dual trends of Topps Chrome and Metal Universe from the '90s growing in stature in the 2010s. Beloved for different reasons, but both beloved nonetheless.)

5. If Panini didn't have a monopoly, this would be more likely to occur. If there wasn't a monopoly other companies would be actively trying to make the next buzz design mixed with enough scarcity to draw collectors' attention away from Panini.

6. Within the Panini monopoly, if Prizm gets toppled, it may need to be an accident. A scenario: Panini makes a new non-high end brand that's produced in low quantities simply because demand is expected to be low, but something about the design just resonates with collectors and demand drastically outweighs supply.

7. On that last point, if you're thinking that essentially all wax is high end now, yes, and so long as demand is so high across the board, the pecking order likely remains pretty calcified.

8. On the Prizm vs (Donruss) Optic question, my guess is that Optic isn't likely to surpass Prizm by a further rise in stature, rather Prizm would have to fall below it based on lowered demand. Also, the fact that Panini has now used Optic for Contenders and is including opti-chrome in more and more programs I think is more likely to diminish Donruss Optic's distinctiveness.

9. Program concept that I could see conceivably catching fire:
Stadium Club Chrome from over in baseball.

I'm not saying I know it will catch fire, but to me a full-bleed chrome set with stunning photography - which is not what we're getting with Prizm or Optic - would very much be my jam.

10. There's an obvious choice for what Panini brand could be being primed for this: Luminance. I don't know if there will be a stigma attached to being a former Chronicles sub-set, but if they do these cards well enough, they'd be worthy of setting a new standard that pleased collectors across quadrant.


11. Also, I could be wrong (on more than just point), but it feels to me like Court Kings is gaining steam, and gaining steam specifically because it has such an aesthetic distance from other products and they've figured some things out about how to get the most out of the theme. While I would not expect Court Kings to surpass Prizm, I think it's an example of how something can thrive while not necessarily being in direct competition with something else that also thrives.

12. Of course all of this is about which brands will come to dominate, not about which cards will dominate. As someone who is more focused on cards with subject aesthetic, and who realistically not going to be much with wax unless the market changes drastically, most cards I buy have to earn my dollar by being a work of art in their own right. I'm not buying the card as a Brand + Year + Parallel + Player equation. Give me music.

To me perhaps the most exciting thing I see coming back into the hobby is the ability for collectors to stand back and choose what they think is beautiful, and this having an effect noticeable enough that we've seen some explosions of popularity with older cards (notably '08-09 Kobe & LeBron).

What I'd like to see then is for collectors to really embrace this enough to start a wave that propagates through the market and tells all trading card companies, but Panini in particular, that it really matters that they put care into every single card with a player on it that has a chance to become an icon. That if they really nail any design, collectors will notice, and show their appreciation as collectors do.

I feel like Panini, and probably the other major companies still around too, have essentially gotten incredibly good at some things while being incredibly lazy about other things. And I think they won't be lazy about anything they know collectors truly care about.

[Tallboy]

I think the entire hobby flames out spectacularly eventually. When it does and only collectors are left, which I swear feels like only maybe 5-10% of the people actually buying cards nowadays, cards that actually look good will be the ones holding the most residual value. I can't imagine how on earth that could possibly be prizm.

lol, I've got some similar thoughts, thought you paint a more vivid, apocalyptic picture.

Re: Can't imagine Prizm will be the best looking cards. Man, coming back into the hobby, it is indeed amazing to me that Prizm represents the standard by which all other cards seem to be judged.

I'd say that Prizm represents a dominance of background aesthetic. A card looks good because the background is the preferred background, and it doesn't matter what picture for the player is used, we just want to see all the players in front of our favorite green screen.

I may throw shade at it, but I won't be surprised if background aesthetic takes it over subject aesthetic every time because you can make the background be as bright and distinctive as you want.

But I prefer subject aesthetic. The background matters to the extent it is resonant or dissonant with the image of the subject, and the background won't matter at all if I don't think the image of the player is worthy.

I'd like to see the hobby swing more in subject-oriented direction both because I like it, and because it would mean paying closer attention to each card they make.

[Tallboy]

All I know is I want Panini to dump 80% of the trash products and release a premium / Prizm Luminance set.

Would be one of the releases of the year.

Yeah you and I are on the same page. I say Stadium Club Chrome, you say Prizm Luminance, either way, it's something I think Panini should put a lot of effort into.

[Ericc5Bears]

I’m long both basketball cards and crypto. I’m just wondering which bubble pops first...
Since basketball card investors almost exclusively buy RCs, and within that the greatest level of irrational exuberance is for PSA 10 Prizm RCs, that’s where the biggest pain is going to be when the investors run for the exits.
Just look at the last bitcoin crash as the perfect analog. 18k back down to 3k in a flash....
Then comes the next rise, like we are seeing in bitcoin now. Early markets are volatile. History will undoubtedly repeat itself. Plan accordingly.
FWIW, I maintain a benchmark card index using 25 highly liquid and demanded cards as a proxy for the market (mostly Prizm). I believe the current Prizm RC market is 3-5x overvalued versus what we will see during the correction, when Pop counts matter and demand dries up.
Tick tock.

Is it fair to call sports cards an early market though? Baseball cards have been around for what, 100 years now? Even pretty mainstream basketball stuff is pushing 40-50 at least. Obviously what we're seeing now is just an entirely new level, but comparing it to crypto which I would guess with limited knowledge is about 10 years old seems a little apples to oranges.

[Tallboy]

Just a friendly reminder that it wasn’t called the “junk wax” era as it was occurring.
It was defined in that manner after the fact and after companies found a way to squeeze every penny from an influx of new and ravenous customers looking to make it rich.
I can vividly recall on multiple occasions, friends parents showing of cards they had purchased and gleefully explaining how it was going to pay for their kid’s college.

Now There are certainly factors that are different, so I would not wager on the proverbial bubble bursting quite as loudly,, but the point remains.

Very true, and I really get the impression a lot of people can't really imagine how they'll feel if they lose their shirt in a market crash.

Here's another thing I'll note:

One of the things about the "junk wax era" is that it's also an era where the guys with RCs in the era didn't pan out like surrounding eras.

The saluting avatar of the basketball junk wax era is David Robinson, who the hobby basically doesn't even really talk about today. He was a fantastic player, but in the end, he's not a guy people are looking back across the decades wanting to wallow in nostalgia for.

I'm not saying oversupply wasn't the essential problem of the junk wax era, but the era would have aged better if Jordan's RC was included in it.

All this to say, I'd expect the products of the '10s will end in then end be at the mercy of the rookies that populate them to some degree, just like any other era.