Price Analysis of Autograph RC's - Top 3 Players from the 2000's Draft Classes

[MavsRChamps]

Hey guys. Was very curious about this, so decided to go all in with an analysis of how the 1st/2nd/3rd best players from draft classes in the 2000's sell right now in 2021. I'm using 2000's because these players values is generally set. Note - I am generalizing here throughout, so doing quick math with calculations. You can look up prices on Ebay also.

I don't mean to be a debbie downer with this, but I do think it's a cautionary tale for so many talking about "investing" in young players nowadays. And of course, if you're a purely a collector and don't care if your cards go down in price - good for you & more power to you. This is purely meant as in interesting analysis, so hopefully it’s fun to read even for you.

So the following is who I would say are the best 3 players from each of the 2000's draft class & an average example of how much their Rookie Auto currently sells for: PS - I understand this is just MY OPINION on the rankings, lol.

2000: Michael Redd - $8 SP Top Prospects Auto RC, Kenyon Martin - $12 SPX Auto RC, Mike Miller - $6 SPX Auto RC

2001: Pau Gasol - $27 Sage RC Auto - (This appears to be his only Rookie Auto. Side-note, but this seems ridiculously underpriced and overlooked if that’s the case) …. , Tony Parker - $30 SPX Auto RC /900 (Seems so overlooked) , Joe Johnson - $12 SPX Auto RC

2002: Yao Ming - $400 SP Authentic RC Auto, Stoudamire - $27 SP Authentic RC Auto, Carlos Boozer - $8 SP AUthentic RC Auto

2003: Lebron - To The Moon … Wade - $350 Rookie Exclusives Auto RC , Melo - $166 Finest Auto RC

2004: Dwight Howard - $70 SP Authentic Auto RC, Iguodala - $30 SP Authentic RC Auto , Luol Deng - $15 SP Authentic RC Auto

2005: CP3 - $200 SP Authentic RC Auto, Deron Williams - $10 Bowman RC Auto , Lou Williams - $10 SPX Auto RC

2006: Aldridge - $22 SPX Auto RC , Lowry - $40 SPX Auto Rc , Rondo - $40 SPX Auto RC

2007: Durant - $1000 SPX Auto RC , Marc Gasol - None … Al Horford - $10 SP Authentic, Conley - $8 Ultimate RC Auto

2008: Westbrook - UD Premier $200 , Love - $35 Hot Prospects, D-Rose - $115 UD Premier Auto RC

2009: Curry - $1000 varied Rookie Autos , Harden - $300 Absolute Auto RC , Griffin - $30 Certified Auto RC

Summary: Of the 30 Players here, here’s the breakdown for the “average” low-end Rookie Auto price:

$1000+: 3 players (Lebron, Curry, Durant)
$100 - $500: 7 Players (Yao, Wade, Melo, CP3, Westbrook, Rose, Harden)
$50 - $100: 1 (Dwight Howard)
Under $50: Everyone else

This was pretty crazy to research all this. Only 11 Players from the whole entire decade (Not included Bosh has some below/above 50 though - so 12 if incl. him) have an average Rookie Auto that sells for over $50 … Guys like Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, Amare Stoudamire, etc. all have Rookie Autos readily available under $50. Should be noted these guys had WAY LESS Rookie Autos than recent draft classes as well on average.

One could argue several of these cards are ridiculously “underpriced” moreso than recent rookies being overpriced and that’s fair enough. I’m not here to tell you how how to interpret this data other than to say it’s telling how even the best players from most draft classes sell for pretty affordable amounts, even hall of farmers which is crazy to me. I would say at the very least, I would think long and hard about entering this hobby from an “investor” perspective, particularly if you’re loading up on young guys. My advice - Have fun with it & don’t spend money you can’t afford to lose.

What are your thoughts?

[darscards35kd]

Very cool write up. I have to admit I've found myself buying more 'underappreciated' guys (imo) than these newer rookies with crazy prices.

[tmar214]

This kind of explains a lot of why rookies sell for what they do. Lets say lebron's rookie auto sells for 10,000. Then the selected rookie autos of the top 3 rookies of each year from the 2000s sells for almost 500$ on average. People are paying hundreds of dollars for rookie autos of top picks in every year hoping they hit it big and have the next lebron (or for other sports brady / trout)

[k13]

Most of those are not their top autos or cards.

I can find plenty of $1000 cards of players on that list.

[MavsRChamps]

This kind of explains a lot of why rookies sell for what they do. Lets say lebron's rookie auto sells for 10,000. Then the selected rookie autos of the top 3 rookies of each year from the 2000s sells for almost 500$ on average. People are paying hundreds of dollars for rookie autos of top picks in every year hoping they hit it big and have the next lebron (or for other sports brady / trout)

Very true, thanks for the perspective.

[MavsRChamps]

Most of those are not their top autos or cards.

I can find plenty of $1000 cards of players on that list.

Yes, I noted it was around their "average" rookie auto. Didn't take the #'s from their high-end rookies, though that wouldn't change the general point if I did, considering the cross-referenced high-end cards of recent rookies would be higher too.

[Chryghst]

In general I think the warning is fully warranted, but looking at 2000 autos is the equivalent to looking back on the 2018 draft in 2038. I don’t think many people are buying players with the intention of holding them until then. They’re thinking about what these players prices are going to be next week, next month, next year.

[Tallboy]

What are your thoughts?

Excellent analysis Champ!

There's no doubt that there's a massive popular difference between 2010s cards and, well, everything else. I think the questions are) how that will change as these players age out and b) whether the prices from this era can be sustained when these players are no longer playing.

I don't know the answer to this question, in part because I don't know how players who were rookies in the 2010s will see their careers play out and how successfully they become historically iconic. Things like whether Giannis breaks through may end up mattering to more than just Giannis cards. ('80s Fleer wouldn't be such a big deal if Jordan can't ever get over the hump I think.)

But, yeah, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that this is a market asymmetry that will level itself with price fall off.

[Totalpackage]

The information you provided is really helpful. Most of them are really affordable.

[sebreg]

It's great perspective, gives context. If you are spending something like 8k on a guy who hasn't really accomplished anything yet, you have to wonder what are the chances he has both a legendary career AND also receives hobby love in the future to justify such prices. At some of the prices we have for these early-career guys, the gamble is that they become GOAT-tier and nothing less. Quite the gamble imo. I mean, if collecting, it's all good, but if you are looking for money return, just don't get stuck holding the unpinned grenade.

Tallboy also makes a great point. The success or failure of a big hype player could end up having pretty big downwind effect on the prices for sets from their rookie years. I do think it's important that some of these "prospects" end up having massive success to keep momentum and interest in the hobby going at the bigger levels, but ultimately some of the pricing is not sustainable I would imagine. And there are going to be a lot of people left holding unpinned grenades, especially these done nothing yet early-career player cards going for massive $$$.

[k13]

Do one for baseball and basically every year is a bust but those idiots come back for more every year to pay thousands for bums that don't even make the majors

[MavsRChamps]

Excellent analysis Champ!

There's no doubt that there's a massive popular difference between 2010s cards and, well, everything else. I think the questions are) how that will change as these players age out and b) whether the prices from this era can be sustained when these players are no longer playing.

I don't know the answer to this question, in part because I don't know how players who were rookies in the 2010s will see their careers play out and how successfully they become historically iconic. Things like whether Giannis breaks through may end up mattering to more than just Giannis cards. ('80s Fleer wouldn't be such a big deal if Jordan can't ever get over the hump I think.)

But, yeah, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that this is a market asymmetry that will level itself with price fall off.

Thanks! And yeah I'm very curious how things play out down the road. Personally, it's confusing how much basic rookie autos of recent guys go far when compared to equivalent autos of even the top guys besides Lebron - Curry, Durant, Wade, etc.

And I'm still amazed Tony Parker's only Auto RC sells for $30. I know the market isn't supposed to make sense, but I figure at least half of these rising star PG's won't have as good of a career as Parker.

And I agree people can collect what they want. But the confusing thing is that so many people buying up recent rookies are proclaiming the purchases as "investments" which is incredibly silly in my mind.

[MavsRChamps]

It's great perspective, gives context. If you are spending something like 8k on a guy who hasn't really accomplished anything yet, you have to wonder what are the chances he has both a legendary career AND also receives hobby love in the future to justify such prices. At some of the prices we have for these early-career guys, the gamble is that they become GOAT-tier and nothing less. Quite the gamble imo. I mean, if collecting, it's all good, but if you are looking for money return, just don't get stuck holding the unpinned grenade.

Tallboy also makes a great point. The success or failure of a big hype player could end up having pretty big downwind effect on the prices for sets from their rookie years. I do think it's important that some of these "prospects" end up having massive success to keep momentum and interest in the hobby going at the bigger levels, but ultimately some of the pricing is not sustainable I would imagine. And there are going to be a lot of people left holding unpinned grenades, especially these done nothing yet early-career player cards going for massive $$$.

It really is amazing. I also wonder "Where are all the fans, early collectors of guys like Amare Stoudamire, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge?" I mean did they really have such few fans that their prices plummet a dozen years later despite having potential hall of fame careers?

I ask this because obviously guys like Morant, Young, Shai, and every other young player has so many people buying up their cards now, so that's the "reason" their prices are higher. Based off the fact that past stars plummet toward the end of their careers, the logical explanation is that the people buying up the player's cards early in their career are "mostly" not fans at all but looking to invest. If they were fans, the prices should be sustainable throughout a player's career - which it's not as evidenct from the guys from 2000's. Therefore, I don't see how recent young stars players won't plummet like past players in time - unless they are Top 20 all-time level. Anyway, yes I'm probably thinking too deep about this - considering I haven't bought a card in a few years outside of a select few Muhammad Ali cards (so looking at this analysis from the outside looking in basically) - but I hope it strays people away from buying up young stars cards purely as investment pieces though. Buy up the cards if you genuinely want the cards & you're a collector to avoid distress down the road.

[cboog3105]

And I'm still amazed Tony Parker's only Auto RC sells for $30. I know the market isn't supposed to make sense, but I figure at least half of these rising star PG's won't have as good of a career as Parker.


theyll rise when hes announced for HOF which is when every investiboi when jump in

they lack foresight and only think about whats put in their face every 5 minutes

[MavsRChamps]

theyll rise when hes announced for HOF which is when every investiboi when jump in

they lack foresight and only think about whats put in their face every 5 minutes

Lol true. They also don't come up for sale often. I see one is on Ebay now for $80 or so. I think it shows that few people are searching for these cards, so when it comes up for auction not many people see it. There doesn't seem to be 2, 3 or several Parker or Spurs collector bidding the card up. If someone wants the card right now this second, they'd have no choice but to click the high buy it now, which would actually inflate the card's value somewhat - If the definition of a card's "value" is what the 2nd highest bidder would pay.

[GoNYGoNYGo]

I think its a combination of both some of these cards being undervalued and also a cautionary tale for current players.

I think part of the price in the current players is driven by the cost of hobby packs/boxes and also they still have the unknown priced into them. I think what people new to the hobby need to realize is that maybe 5% of the current cards will maintain their value 20 years from now - they will have higher peaks and lower valleys before then but 95% will settle in at less than what they are selling for now.

For myself there are very few players I will be holding long term, Mookie Update RC PSA 10 - a few Trouts - one Tatum RC - Mahomes RC - and Luka RC's everyone else is either a PC player that I just like - Knicks/Yankees/Rangers or something I will likely sell soon.

[codered]

For the record Parker also has a true rookie auto in sp authentic as well but I hope the point is taken by others. What kind of blows my mind even more is high grade chrome base rookies and rookie refractors are now outselling true rookie autographs like SPx, SP authentic and ultimate by a pretty large percentage. Those use to be way more sought after rookies. If you would have said that 10-15 years ago that this would be the case you most likely would have been laughed at. Just shows how the collecting landscape can change

[orion9578]

Good write up and I agree with you and have been saying it for a LONG time that people need to look back at the past 10-20 years at each draft class before they go spending several thousands dollars on a random guy to hold forever. It's likely that 5-10 guys will hold much value at from say the 2015-2025 drafts, when looked at 10-20 years after said draft happens. Hopefully most people are MOVING most, like 95% of the cards, they are getting. They won't be worth much one day beyond being in a PC.

[MavsRChamps]

For the record Parker also has a true rookie auto in sp authentic as well but I hope the point is taken by others. What kind of blows my mind even more is high grade chrome base rookies and rookie refractors are now outselling true rookie autographs like SPx, SP authentic and ultimate by a pretty large percentage. Those use to be way more sought after rookies. If you would have said that 10-15 years ago that this would be the case you most likely would have been laughed at. Just shows how the collecting landscape can change

Yeah I remember that. I'm 27 now but really got into collecting around Lebron's rookie year when I was 10. I remember my Dad buying me a 03-04 Topps Matrix Box for Christmas and remember boxes of cards throughout the 2000's years on special occasions. Bought lots of cards on Ebay using my Dad's account throughout high school. I sold maybe half of my collection a few years ago from my childhood. Currently detached from buying cards due to life changes being a father and all - But still immensely curious in the current collecting landscape and where it will go.

[MavsRChamps]

Good write up and I agree with you and have been saying it for a LONG time that people need to look back at the past 10-20 years at each draft class before they go spending several thousands dollars on a random guy to hold forever. It's likely that 5-10 guys will hold much value at from say the 2015-2025 drafts, when looked at 10-20 years after said draft happens. Hopefully most people are MOVING most, like 95% of the cards, they are getting. They won't be worth much one day beyond being in a PC.

Yes, and something also to think about - In this analysis, I used the "best 3 players" from each class after the fact so it's already biased, meaning someone picking the "best 3 players" now from recent classes won't be right 15 years from now. To "hit" on some players, you have to spread out even more, which increases the likelihood of busts. For example, I remember the Top 3 Rookies being Griffin, Jennings, & Tyreke Evans in 2009 - If someone invested hundreds of dollars in each of those guys thinking "Well 1 of them will become huge" - they'd be wrong, as Curry/Harden are actually the top guys.

This analysis could also be done already for 2010, as guys like Paul George, John Wall, and Cousins are already diving down in prices. Seems like it happens around the 10th year mark for borderline all-stars or better players and even before then for just regular starters where prices plummet.

I hope I am wrong and buying up recent guys pays off for people. But we'll see.

[bjho852]

"2003: Lebron - To The Moon … Wade - $350 Rookie Exclusives Auto RC , Melo - $166 Finest Auto RC"

Isn't SP Authentic supposedly the best rookie autograph card as well for both Wade and Melo?

[MavsRChamps]

"2003: Lebron - To The Moon … Wade - $350 Rookie Exclusives Auto RC , Melo - $166 Finest Auto RC"

Isn't SP Authentic supposedly the best rookie autograph card as well for both Wade and Melo?

Perhaps, I wasn't using the best one though. Just the average one, as in average low-end. I basically just looked at completed listings and randomly picked one honestly. Picking exact cards wouldn't really be relevant to the analysis anyways, since I was choosing cards across years and across players so the variables inherently aren't the same for each player/card.

[BBallCT]

All of the top guys drafted high lottery (top 10 from quick look)

Four #1 picks

Might be other elements raising likelyhood of hitting long term value

Nice work btw

[MavsRChamps]

All of the top guys drafted high lottery (top 10 from quick look)

Four #1 picks

Might be other elements raising likelyhood of hitting long term value

Nice work btw

Thanks!

And I’m just pondering how this analysis would look like in 10 years for the 2010’s group of rookies ... I know, I know, hard to predict but it’s interesting to think about. Let’s account for inflation and just time all the #’s by 1.4 (roughly 3 percent inflation per year) & for simplistic purposes let’s just say the same ratio applies of:

(3) Players w/ $1400+ “low end” Auto Rookie Cards
(7) Players w/ $140 - $700 *’low end” Auto RC’s
1 Player w/ $70 - $130 low end RC

My prediction & WOW, was this tough!
(3) Top guys - Giannis, Doncic, Kawhi Leonard
(7) - Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Karl Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Trae Young, Morant, Jayson Tatum
(1) - Zion

Hard excluding several guys like Paul George, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Joel Embid, John Collins, Everyone in the 2018 draft class besides Doncic/Young - But unless you think the 2010's rookies are that much better than the previous decade, the ratio of values should be around the same really. Even if it seems improbable.

For anyone willing to continue this thread, share your guesses!

[phdbeckett]

I will chime in and state that the 2000s were plagued by "Exclusives" and brand licensing that put top rookies on either Team A, or Team B. Many signed for all 3 companies, but I digress.

The takeaway is that there is an overall greater supply of certain players, and a market limited supply of others. Ignoring the "high end" or parallel argument, there definitely are supply and demand situations for a lot of these players.

[DajuanWagner]

I will chime in and state that the 2000s were plagued by "Exclusives" and brand licensing that put top rookies on either Team A, or Team B. Many signed for all 3 companies, but I digress.

The takeaway is that there is an overall greater supply of certain players, and a market limited supply of others. Ignoring the "high end" or parallel argument, there definitely are supply and demand situations for a lot of these players.



Whatjutalkingabout, Doc????

[Filthy]

This is exactly why I think its CRAZY to see people paying $100s and even $1,000s on new RC cards, of guys that probably wont even be playing in the league in 3-5 years. Yet, you can purchase super nice, high end RC cards of sure fire HOF guys, for cheaper.

[MavsRChamps]

I will chime in and state that the 2000s were plagued by "Exclusives" and brand licensing that put top rookies on either Team A, or Team B. Many signed for all 3 companies, but I digress.

The takeaway is that there is an overall greater supply of certain players, and a market limited supply of others. Ignoring the "high end" or parallel argument, there definitely are supply and demand situations for a lot of these players.

Yes for sure - and that actually supports the main point even more that recent players are most likely "overpriced" and it's somewhat of a bubble (in my opinion). I mentioned the supply point in the 1st post too.