2020-21 Donruss Optic FOTL - $$??

[mads11]

What do yall think the price will be for the dutch auction before OOS?

[PSA2Pac]

Prob $800-$900

[zsouth]

Anyone jumping on this? What are your thoughts on this product? I haven’t opened previous releases before.

[BirdsFan55]

Anyone jumping on this? What are your thoughts on this product? I haven’t opened previous releases before.

Last year the FOTL was the premium format with like 8 cards total but it did guarantee a numbered rated rookie auto. This year, I'm not sure the lone purple stars parallel /13 as the FOTL exclusive moves the needle all that much. The purple stars parallels don't really sell well compared to their numbering. I would assume it sells out close to the current price on BO, would be shocked if it sells out way higher.

[sethc1020]

Trash, it should hit the floor and not sell out but people will still buy it at ridiculous prices and loose their butts off if they open. You're not even guaranteed a purple stars rc (which dont sell well anyway) your FOTL exclusive could be a purple stars vet of Austin Rivers.

"Look for 1 Base Purple Stars Parallel or Rated Rookie Purple Stars Parallel (#'d /13) in every FOTL box!"

[phil]

Last year the FOTL was the premium format with like 8 cards total but it did guarantee a numbered rated rookie auto. This year, I'm not sure the lone purple stars parallel /13 as the FOTL exclusive moves the needle all that much. The purple stars parallels don't really sell well compared to their numbering. I would assume it sells out close to the current price on BO, would be shocked if it sells out way higher.



Content is irrelevant if only 10% of the print run is auctioned.

[kensanity]

I’m gonna go for it, but every ounce of common sense tells me I shouldn’t.

1) the fotl exclusive sucks. 75% of the time it will be a veteran, and even if it was a rated rookie it’s only out of /13. You are paying the premium for 1 card. At least select had /1, /5, /15 AND you got two cards. Spectra had at least a guaranteed rpa. A /13 base parallel for optic? Garbage for the additional premium

2) the new season starts in a month. How much hype does optic really have behind it now? Quite frankly, the fact that it is preselling for nearly the same price it was at back in April is ridiculous. Nothing in the market suggests that should remain true. And yet, here we are. This means that even if the auction goes down to $750, we should expect it to probably sell out at that price since that is currently what hobby sells for.

3) if you believe the conspiracy about panini reserving most of the stock, this situation is even worse and fotl won’t even get close to the hobby price. There’s only 2,600 boxes. If we are looking at 10% or so of it, then good luck.

No reason to buy and yet I’ll still probably aim for 2-3 at some ridiculously high number and be disappointed when I don’t buy regardless.

[JAMSC]

Will sell out at $800 or higher. Should be under $400 if anything made sense.

[wxguy44]

Not even gonna look until an hour into it. If it's gone by that point, so be it. Bring on the '21-'22 cards already!

[JAMSC]

Not even gonna look until an hour into it. If it's gone by that point, so be it. Bring on the '21-'22 cards already!


Chronicles could have been a fun rip if it was out around now, but since it’s not I’m with you. Let’s get to 21-22 Hoops!

[bigjbasketball]

Maybe I’d consider this at sub-$500 but it won’t get close to that low. This has probably the worst FOTL bonus of any product released so far this year. Panini also just sent out the reminder email for this and they included a photo of Donruss football in the email. Nice work!

[mc1]

Maybe I’d consider this at sub-$500 but it won’t get close to that low. This has probably the worst FOTL bonus of any product released so far this year. Panini also just sent out the reminder email for this and they included a photo of Donruss football in the email. Nice work!

BO and their competitors would buy boxes before they got below $600. Maybe even at some slightly higher levels.

[Bob Ross]

Floor at the highest, as always.

[Allamericancard]

BO and their competitors would buy boxes before they got below $600. Maybe even at some slightly higher levels.

The big 3 will buy out everything at prices HIGHER than their preorders

[bigjbasketball]

BO and their competitors would buy boxes before they got below $600. Maybe even at some slightly higher levels.

Absolutely. I don’t see this getting below $700

[rifleman69]

Basura.

Bring on Chronicles and 2021-2022 Hoops!

[Allamericancard]

shoot if we follow last year's trend, we still have mosaic, Chronicles, Illusions and hoops premium for retail releases lol here's to 2020 basketball products in 2022!!!

[PSA2Pac]

Maybe I’d consider this at sub-$500 but it won’t get close to that low. This has probably the worst FOTL bonus of any product released so far this year. Panini also just sent out the reminder email for this and they included a photo of Donruss football in the email. Nice work!

Absolutely. I don’t see this getting below $700

Agreed. I’d degenerately scoop some at $500 but, like you said, this won’t get close. Yeah, this FOTL offering is the worst I’ve ever seen.

Panini is a damn clown show at this point. No direction whatsoever. I’ve not been a big Fanatics fan previously but I’m still optimistic that they will be able to hone in and show they have a finger on the pulse of the hobby. Panini obviously doesn’t have a clue.

shoot if we follow last year's trend, we still have mosaic, Chronicles, Illusions and hoops premium for retail releases lol here's to 2020 basketball products in 2022!!!

Mosaic is definitely coming (although it got pushed back too...) but I heard HP might have been scrapped and knowing Panini, they might just decide to dump everything left in Chronicles to close out the year.

[epatmythes]

Over-priced at the $300 floor... so I'll guess "sold out", hmmmm, around $870

[PSA2Pac]

Over-priced at the $300 floor... so I'll guess "sold out", hmmmm, around $870

Most likely. Select b ball was a much better FOTL offering but every drop since then has seemed like Panini has cut the auction short and/or only released a tiny percentage of the overall inventory available.

No way Optic FOTL should go for more/as much as Select, but it will

[phil]

No way Optic FOTL should go for more/as much as Select, but it will


Not that Optic isn't monumentally overpriced but Select FOTL is currently $1500 ebay with Blowout paying $1350 which at this point is probably more of a factor here than what it sold out for. Plus Select probably would have sold out $800+ if that auction wasn't glitching.

[Sticks33]

Everyone is assuming that online stores are actually SELLING boxes/cases at their presale prices. I think that's a bad assumption.

All other FOTL releases have dropped below what presale prices have been. This should do the same.

[phil]

Gone $850

[mossoholic]

Absolutely hilarious. Could add in 1 click minutes before sell out.

[Chris P]

It sell out at $850?

[mikee1186]

Insanity at that price!

[mossoholic]

It sell out at $850?

Yeah probably the 300 boxes they made available to the public did.

[JeremyNick]

It sell out at $850?

Yes and no.

It’s not for sale anymore. The last price was $850. I doubt it all sold via Dutch auction at the price and I’m sure that price was predetermined.

[Chris P]

Yeah probably the 300 boxes they made available to the public did.

lol..yup..FOTL is just a joke now.

[Allamericancard]

Everyone is assuming that online stores are actually SELLING boxes/cases at their presale prices. I think that's a bad assumption.

All other FOTL releases have dropped below what presale prices have been. This should do the same.

incorrect. last fotl to drop below presell prices were select and nt. since then they have all "sold out" above the big 3s presell prices

[Sticks33]

incorrect. last fotl to drop below presell prices were select and nt. since then they have all "sold out" above the big 3s presell prices

But have they? That's the real question. Everyone is speculating on manipulation. I think they're right.

[Supercomputers]

Wow they are really manipulating these now. Pretty unfortunate. Not sure i see the value on this one but maybe.

[mossoholic]

incorrect. last fotl to drop below presell prices were select and nt. since then they have all "sold out" above the big 3s presell prices

Which until recently I think virtually every single dutch auction from 2019-20 Prizm basketball FOTL on sold out at or below big 3 presale prices. Optic was sold out about a minute into $850. So probably 90% of the people that got it with tax paid close to $1,000 or more. You can buy a hobby box buy it now for $700 on ebay right now. Is there anyone on earth that thinks this bonus card adds $300 value to a $700 box?

[PSA2Pac]

But have they? That's the real question. Everyone is speculating on manipulation. I think they're right.

That’s why he put ‘sold out’ in quotations

Of course there’s manipulation. 100%

Sold out at exactly the price I predicted, all 300 boxes or so

[KOs Cardroom]

rip to the $ that was just incinerated today

[TheTruth17]

I am buying if it gets to $600

Comparing to 19/20 hobby boxes, prizm is trading around 2400 and optic 1200. 20/21 prizm is trading around 1100, so I would say the optic hobby should be around 500 to 550 a box if we are comparing apples to apples on these two products. But this is using basic numbers and logic, the Dutch auction and fomo will probably have people paying 700 to 800 to buy it all out.

[PSA2Pac]

I am buying if it gets to $600

Comparing to 19/20 hobby boxes, prizm is trading around 2400 and optic 1200. 20/21 prizm is trading around 1100, so I would say the optic hobby should be around 500 to 550 a box if we are comparing apples to apples on these two products. But this is using basic numbers and logic, the Dutch auction and fomo will probably have people paying 700 to 800 to buy it all out.

Already sold out lol

[BackToWax]

No way that "sold out" at $850

[TheTruth17]

Well, sold out at $850 while I was typing previous post. Way too high for my liking.

[Bob Ross]

I'm ready for Fanatics to take over.

[boxbuster7]

Panini is so damn greedy. They actually had the cuts to start a product that comes with 1 autographed card at $1,500

[kensanity]

Disgusting practice. FOTL Dutch Auctions were always one of the most fun things and it at least had a semblance of feeling "fair" even if Panini could artificially control the floor and ceiling.

I'm pretty green to the experience overall and not one for conspiracies but as others have alluded, the past few FOTL releases have all "sold" way above the hobby presale prices.

This is not a big deal, if it weren't for the fact that anyone who has done a Panini dutch auction knows how hard it is to cart a product once it reaches a heavy traffic sales point (because everyone is trying to buy it)

I and I'm sure others can attest that at least at $900, that was a one-click cart. Select on the other hand, was impossible to cart for 20 minutes (the last 4 price drops).

Of all the poor practices and decision making that panini has shown over the pandemic -- whether it be moving select to retail, all the parallels, the national treasures quality control, or whatever, this takes the cake in my book.

[ryanmn16]

At a $850 sellout price + $70ish tax, that's $920 per box, meaning you would be paying $170 for one non-auto numbered card (vs. just buying pre-order)...madness

[mossoholic]

Panini is so damn greedy. They actually had the cuts to start a product that comes with 1 autographed card at $1,500

It doesn't matter now because going forward on basketball and football releases you will probably never see true market value on FOTL dutch auctions ever again. Before this crap started the price that mattered was the floor. When you think about it, the higher they start it the better. The floor price is what matters.

[boxbuster7]

It doesn't matter now because going forward on basketball and football releases you will probably never see true market value on FOTL dutch auctions ever again. Before this crap started the price that mattered was the floor. When you think about it, the higher they start it the better. The floor price is what matters.

True, I mean anybody would get slaughtered on this stuff at $850 a box. Probbably even $500.

The direct to consumer model is such an interesting concept, but panini manipulating the supply and demand with fake sellouts defeats the entire purpose of that "true market value"

[Bob Ross]

Disgusting practice. FOTL Dutch Auctions were always one of the most fun things and it at least had a semblance of feeling "fair" even if Panini could artificially control the floor and ceiling.

I'm pretty green to the experience overall and not one for conspiracies but as others have alluded, the past few FOTL releases have all "sold" way above the hobby presale prices.

This is not a big deal, if it weren't for the fact that anyone who has done a Panini dutch auction knows how hard it is to cart a product once it reaches a heavy traffic sales point (because everyone is trying to buy it)

I and I'm sure others can attest that at least at $900, that was a one-click cart. Select on the other hand, was impossible to cart for 20 minutes (the last 4 price drops).

Of all the poor practices and decision making that panini has shown over the pandemic -- whether it be moving select to retail, all the parallels, the national treasures quality control, or whatever, this takes the cake in my book.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/fvT2tuQGmYxsQbSrQH/200.gif
https://y.yarn.co/9b164ebb-1f12-475b-aead-5d3adc68bcdf_text.gif

[phil]

Disgusting practice. FOTL Dutch Auctions were always one of the most fun things and it at least had a semblance of feeling "fair" even if Panini could artificially control the floor and ceiling.

I'm pretty green to the experience overall and not one for conspiracies but as others have alluded, the past few FOTL releases have all "sold" way above the hobby presale prices.

This is not a big deal, if it weren't for the fact that anyone who has done a Panini dutch auction knows how hard it is to cart a product once it reaches a heavy traffic sales point (because everyone is trying to buy it)

I and I'm sure others can attest that at least at $900, that was a one-click cart. Select on the other hand, was impossible to cart for 20 minutes (the last 4 price drops).

Of all the poor practices and decision making that panini has shown over the pandemic -- whether it be moving select to retail, all the parallels, the national treasures quality control, or whatever, this takes the cake in my book.


Best evidence for backdooring most of the FOTL print runs is the dearth of new ebay listings after sellout. So far on this 3 new listings grand totaling 4 boxes.

[yiguiri2002]

I don't get why people are so mad. The exclusive sucks and I have no desire to pay even 100 more compared to regular Optic. And the way things are going, just wait a month or so and prices will fall.

I would rather pay 600 for a box of regular Optic in a month than 900 of a FOTL box right now.

[anusinha]

I'm ready for Fanatics to take over.

Fanatics will charge even more, they will use the stockx model

[Lone Wulf]

At a $850 sellout price + $70ish tax, that's $920 per box, meaning you would be paying $170 for one non-auto numbered card (vs. just buying pre-order)...madness

Yeah this is the crazy part to me. People can be mad about Panini's prices, but they are just going off the market for how they price their direct to consumer stuff. Buying FOTL for that $920 price (and you have to assume some people paid even more before the price drop) ... I just can't comprehend why people would do it. Wish I had that kind of money to burn :3

[ohio_mba]

Yeah this is the crazy part to me. People can be mad about Panini's prices, but they are just going off the market for how they price their direct to consumer stuff. Buying FOTL for that $920 price (and you have to assume some people paid even more before the price drop) ... I just can't comprehend why people would do it. Wish I had that kind of money to burn :3

Some people buy way too high just to say they got them. Same mentality as Apple fans. They know the product isn't worth what they're paying but it sure feels cool being among the first to get it.

[anusinha]

Yeah this is the crazy part to me. People can be mad about Panini's prices, but they are just going off the market for how they price their direct to consumer stuff. Buying FOTL for that $920 price (and you have to assume some people paid even more before the price drop) ... I just can't comprehend why people would do it. Wish I had that kind of money to burn :3

people arent buying it to rip themselves, they are buying it so that idiots can all pay $50 them a pop for a random team in a group break.

[ryanmn16]

people arent buying it to rip themselves, they are buying it so that idiots can all pay $50 them a pop for a random team in a group break.

Very valid point. And they'll have no problem filling it, sadly.

[mc1]

Disgusting practice. FOTL Dutch Auctions were always one of the most fun things and it at least had a semblance of feeling "fair" even if Panini could artificially control the floor and ceiling.

I'm pretty green to the experience overall and not one for conspiracies but as others have alluded, the past few FOTL releases have all "sold" way above the hobby presale prices.

This is not a big deal, if it weren't for the fact that anyone who has done a Panini dutch auction knows how hard it is to cart a product once it reaches a heavy traffic sales point (because everyone is trying to buy it)

I and I'm sure others can attest that at least at $900, that was a one-click cart. Select on the other hand, was impossible to cart for 20 minutes (the last 4 price drops).

Of all the poor practices and decision making that panini has shown over the pandemic -- whether it be moving select to retail, all the parallels, the national treasures quality control, or whatever, this takes the cake in my book.

You can cart right away. You dont have to wait until the last few price drops.

[Boo]

I'm ready for Fanatics to take over.

You won't be saying that when it happens, Fanatics even jacks up retail prices.

[RogerGodahell]

Fanatics prices will be just as bad maybe even higher. All those licenses they agreed to pay 10x more for than Panini and Topps they'll have to make up for.

[PSA2Pac]

I’m not even a fan of Fanatics but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, until they prove otherwise. Everybody thinks they know exactly how they’re gonna do things but nobody knows.

Panini is a pretty trash company so I’m optimistic to change. Sometimes you just gotta fire Lloyd Pierce and bring in a Nate McMillan. If it doesn’t pan out, so be it.

[rifleman69]

Fanatics will just print until the cows come home of Hoops and Donruss. Let the kids have their cards!

[PSA2Pac]

Fanatics will just print until the cows come home of Hoops and Donruss. Let the kids have their cards!

Definitely possible, if they don’t have a longterm vision.

It will either be the final nail in the coffin for modern cards or it will transform things for the better. Or anywhere in between.

All they need to be is better than Panini, which won’t take much.

[gomiamigo]

Fanatics will just print until the cows come home of Hoops and Donruss. Let the kids have their cards!

Cosign this for sure.

[sportsfanatic]

True, I mean anybody would get slaughtered on this stuff at $850 a box. Probbably even $500.

The direct to consumer model is such an interesting concept, but panini manipulating the supply and demand with fake sellouts defeats the entire purpose of that "true market value"

You will still get smoked at $500/box. Even at SRP, its more than likely to be a loss. Singles of this year's rookie class have dropped substantially across the board, including Lamelo. Its comical how Panini, their distributors and breakers are all colluding to keep wax prices high despite the value of singles not being there. They're all trying to milk this cash cow for as long as possible.

The manipulation of wax prices would stop if people just stopped buying into breaks at these rip-off prices. Unfortunately, many of them don't realize that they're getting ripped-off and losing money incrementally. They're not on these forums and they're just clueless smh

[kensanity]

You can cart right away. You dont have to wait until the last few price drops.

I'm aware of that. Typically my strategy is I'll buy really safe (really high price) and then cart again immediately and keep refreshing to get at a price that is attractive to me.

However, another thing I'd do, is use a secondary account that only carts. Traditionally, when a product reaches a point where people are trying to buy it, there will be traffic errors if you try to cart it. I use that time to proceed with checkout on my main account (where the item is already carted).

Post select release, these high traffic errors have no longer been seen. Maybe Panini fixed their traffic issues? doubt it.

[jbettis32]

Fanatics prices will be just as bad maybe even higher. All those licenses they agreed to pay 10x more for than Panini and Topps they'll have to make up for.

Totally agreed. There is no free lunch, and how much they pay for the licenses, they will try to milk 10x for return. You will start to cherish the Panini days once Fanatics takes it over.

[mossoholic]

I'm aware of that. Typically my strategy is I'll buy really safe (really high price) and then cart again immediately and keep refreshing to get at a price that is attractive to me.

However, another thing I'd do, is use a secondary account that only carts. Traditionally, when a product reaches a point where people are trying to buy it, there will be traffic errors if you try to cart it. I use that time to proceed with checkout on my main account (where the item is already carted).

Post select release, these high traffic errors have no longer been seen. Maybe Panini fixed their traffic issues? doubt it.

I can 100% guarantee you that they have not fixed it. I buy other Panini items on the site. While this FOTL stuff has been going on they had Color Blast Basketball NFT packs. Clicking add to cart give or take 1000 times in 5 minutes I was able to add to cart 1 time and get 1 single order in.

[mossoholic]

Totally agreed. There is no free lunch, and how much they pay for the licenses, they will try to milk 10x for return. You will start to cherish the Panini days once Fanatics takes it over.

Until a month or so ago I would have agreed with you. But now with this FOTL crap and target.com retail it can't get worse. How could Fanatics be worse?

Panini you now can't get any product anyone wants new hobby, FOTL, or online exclusive at true market price let alone anywhere near MSRP. Retail anything worth getting from target.com is now close to impossible. Walmart.com is impossible. In store at Walmart for 99% of people it is impossible or if they can get it you're wasting a ton of time and effort to get in most cases 1 per sku. The only way it could get worse I would view as actually being better. If you had 0% chance to get anything Panini from anywhere you could at least save the time and misery.

Before this Panini was already taking way more from FOTL as they would never screw over their distributors. Making mostly every basketball and football floor price 2-10 times MSRP. I can't believe in most cases getting several times MSRP on FOTL they now won't even let us buy it at true market value. They now have to screw all average buyers. All the while still selling virtually every box of hobby to their good buddies for around 80% of MSRP.

[casebreaksllc]

had to be more than 300 boxes, I alone got 4 cases at 850 and 900. i think everyone underestimates how many breakers are buying cases vs. pulling the product early. If i got 4, imagine how many places like Layton and Platinum got. Then throw in DA, Blowout, SCC etc

[casebreaksllc]

also 330 orders between my last 2 which were 5 min apart, if you base it off order ID

https://i.gyazo.com/be0953ff2a5e8e5a1bafe4ac02740dda.png

[Grizzkid12]

also 330 orders between my last 2 which were 5 min apart, if you base it off order ID

https://i.gyazo.com/be0953ff2a5e8e5a1bafe4ac02740dda.png

You seem to post valuable content here, but not sure why someone who seems to have a good grip on the hobby would drop $850-$900 plus tax (assuming you're in a state with sales tax) on these when hobby can be found everywhere at $750 out the door (and as "low" as $675 from reputable sources if you put in the work).

This FOTL exclusive is not good. No way it's worth a $150 or so premium on the low end to $300ish per box vs regular hobby.

Also have to you factor in that Panini CLEARLY knows not to put product hits in FOTL. The 18/19 Optic 1/1 Luka was pulled in an FOTL box then and they got a bunch of negative publicity on that when people were saying the product was "dead" before release. So even though a complete lottery ticket, you can bet product hits will always be in Hobby boxes and I have yet to see an FOTL box since 18/19 yield any type of lottery ticket card like that.

if this was a real sellout lots of real people whether breakers or not overspent today.

[mossoholic]

also 330 orders between my last 2 which were 5 min apart, if you base it off order ID

https://i.gyazo.com/be0953ff2a5e8e5a1bafe4ac02740dda.png

In those 330 some orders how many were for more than 1 or 2 boxes? Less than 5%? There are 2600 boxes. Was a single box bought over $1,000 before tax? Look at the way these groups are breaking FOTL. It's 1-3 boxes. They aren't buying these high price FOTL by the case. They are buying them on the dutch auction by the box. The whole point of breaking is people paying small amounts. You think a place like Blowout is going to take a chance they way overpay by buying these boxes on the dutch auction well above their bs preorder price? Lol for Optic they are paying around $200 a box for hobby. Sorry but I don't think they are gonna spend after tax close to $1,000 per FOTL box and buy it by the case without first for sure knowing the value.

All that being said I'd love to hear how much NT FOTL, Select Basketball FOTL, and Elite basketball hobby you bought over the last several weeks. Because if you bought cases of Optic at $900 a box I'm assuming if you have half a brain you were buying cases of NT FOTL at $5,000, Select FOTL at $1,100, and Elite at $350. Then buying more cases all the way down. So did you spend $50,000-$100,000 on each of those products?

Let's assume you are correct and all these boxes are being dutch auctioned and bought by breakers at these high prices. It's going to become just like hobby has been then. A fake manipulated price that isn't the true market value. If for every FOTL product 50-100 people that are all breakers buy 98% of it how does the sellout price equal true market value? It doesn't. It's a fake manipulated price.

I guess it doesn't matter if you can get idiots to still buy into it. Can't wait to see 2021 NT Collegiate Football FOTL sell out at $2,000. The preorder for hobby is $1,500. That and Flawless Collegiate at $5,000 a box are deals right now. It's too bad they don't have a FOTL for Flawless Collegiate so it could sell out at $6,500+. What do you got a 2% chance of breaking even on those boxes? What great buys. Or better yet spend $1,400 a box on Spectra baseball FOTL. That $1,124 preorder price blowout has is way underpriced. Same goes for the $600 on Chronicles Draft Picks basketball hobby. Incoming $750+ plus sellout on FOTL. Why aren't you breakers buying all the 2021 Chronicles Draft Picks football FOTL you can right now? It's selling under $350 a box. But maybe you guys are laying off that one product because you think the 21-22 basketball class will outsell the 2021 football class by more than double!

We are going to get to a point where if you buy into a box break on most products the average return is going to be under 5%. Almost all breaks every single spot will lose. Looking at some singles prices now we are already there.

[casebreaksllc]

You seem to post valuable content here, but not sure why someone who seems to have a good grip on the hobby would drop $850-$900 plus tax (assuming you're in a state with sales tax) on these when hobby can be found everywhere at $750 out the door (and as "low" as $675 from reputable sources if you put in the work).

This FOTL exclusive is not good. No way it's worth a $150 or so premium on the low end to $300ish per box vs regular hobby.

Also have to you factor in that Panini CLEARLY knows not to put product hits in FOTL. The 18/19 Optic 1/1 Luka was pulled in an FOTL box then and they got a bunch of negative publicity on that when people were saying the product was "dead" before release. So even though a complete lottery ticket, you can bet product hits will always be in Hobby boxes and I have yet to see an FOTL box since 18/19 yield any type of lottery ticket card like that.

if this was a real sellout lots of real people whether breakers or not overspent today.

I am a breaker, that's why I buy it.

As for big hits, I pulled a Lamelo Ball True RPA /3 from NT FOTL, so there are definitely product hits in it that are worth it.

[casebreaksllc]

In those 330 some orders how many were for more than 1 or 2 boxes? Less than 5%? There are 2600 boxes. Was a single box bought over $1,000 before tax? Look at the way these groups are breaking FOTL. It's 1-3 boxes. They aren't buying these high price FOTL by the case. They are buying them on the dutch auction by the box. The whole point of breaking is people paying small amounts. You think a place like Blowout is going to take a chance they way overpay by buying these boxes on the dutch auction well above their bs preorder price? Lol for Optic they are paying around $200 a box for hobby. Sorry but I don't think they are gonna spend after tax close to $1,000 per FOTL box and buy it by the case without first for sure knowing the value.

All that being said I'd love to hear how much NT FOTL, Select Basketball FOTL, and Elite basketball hobby you bought over the last several weeks. Because if you bought cases of Optic at $900 a box I'm assuming if you have half a brain you were buying cases of NT FOTL at $5,000, Select FOTL at $1,100, and Elite at $350. Then buying more cases all the way down. So did you spend $50,000-$100,000 on each of those products?

Let's assume you are correct and all these boxes are being dutch auctioned and bought by breakers at these high prices. It's going to become just like hobby has been then. A fake manipulated price that isn't the true market value. If for every FOTL product 50-100 people that are all breakers buy 98% of it how does the sellout price equal true market value? It doesn't. It's a fake manipulated price.

I guess it doesn't matter if you can get idiots to still buy into it. Can't wait to see 2021 NT Collegiate Football FOTL sell out at $2,000. The preorder for hobby is $1,500. That and Flawless Collegiate at $5,000 a box are deals right now. It's too bad they don't have a FOTL for Flawless Collegiate so it could sell out at $6,500+. What do you got a 2% chance of breaking even on those boxes? What great buys. Or better yet spend $1,400 a box on Spectra baseball FOTL. That $1,124 preorder price blowout has is way underpriced. Same goes for the $600 on Chronicles Draft Picks basketball hobby. Incoming $750+ plus sellout on FOTL. Why aren't you breakers buying all the 2021 Chronicles Draft Picks football FOTL you can right now? It's selling under $350 a box. But maybe you guys are laying off that one product because you think the 21-22 basketball class will outsell the 2021 football class by more than double!

We are going to get to a point where if you buy into a box break on most products the average return is going to be under 5%. Almost all breaks every single spot will lose. Looking at some singles prices now we are already there.

you are going off assumption, again, and on a very small sample size. that was only a 5 minute gap I provided, hardly enough to base anything from. this product was up for over an hour, im sure there was more than 300 orders before and after me. I got 4 cases and there are 1000 orders between my first and last order, even if 1 box each (which lets face it the big dogs like Blowout, DA, SCC, Platinum, Layton aren't buying single boxes) the math adds up.

[casebreaksllc]

All that being said I'd love to hear how much NT FOTL, Select Basketball FOTL, and Elite basketball hobby you bought over the last several weeks. Because if you bought cases of Optic at $900 a box I'm assuming if you have half a brain you were buying cases of NT FOTL at $5,000, Select FOTL at $1,100, and Elite at $350. Then buying more cases all the way down. So did you spend $50,000-$100,000 on each of those products?

you should go look at the price of NT FOTL, Select FOTL, etc right now and then call me half brained again for buying... you sound like a clown in literally every post you make, get a life and stop posting this same panini hate in literally every thread. You can whine all you want, it's not going to change anything. You are the one who constantly sounds like the person you describe. Just because you don't agree with it, doesn't make you always right.

[Grizzkid12]

I am a breaker, that's why I buy it.

As for big hits, I pulled a Lamelo Ball True RPA /3 from NT FOTL, so there are definitely product hits in it that are worth it.

Makes sense. I guess if you guys have a cust base that buys in I get it, but I do stand by my opinion that hobby is the much better buy at their respective prices for everyone (not that I'm saying hobby is a good buy either lol)

And yea, the FOTL exclusives guaranteed are in the product so if the best FOTL exclusive is an RPA/3 the Lamelo is going to be in there. I'm just saying there's no chance they put something like the Lamelo logman in an NT, spectra or flawless FOTL box or his Gold vinyl in Optic, etc. Cards like that which aren't FOTL exclusive will never be hit in an FOTL box.

[k13]

I’m not even a fan of Fanatics but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, until they prove otherwise. Everybody thinks they know exactly how they’re gonna do things but nobody knows.

Panini is a pretty trash company so I’m optimistic to change. Sometimes you just gotta fire Lloyd Pierce and bring in a Nate McMillan. If it doesn’t pan out, so be it.

So they'll pay 10x more then sell products for 50% cheaper.

:)!

[mossoholic]

you should go look at the price of NT FOTL, Select FOTL, etc right now and then call me half brained again for buying... you sound like a clown in literally every post you make, get a life and stop posting this same panini hate in literally every thread. You can whine all you want, it's not going to change anything. You are the one who constantly sounds like the person you describe. Just because you don't agree with it, doesn't make you always right.

Yes I do see the prices they are selling for. Which by your logic of buying Optic you should have been buying 10+ cases of those products, correct? So did you spend $50,000-$100,000 on each of those products? Select basketball FOTL, NT basketball FOTL, and Elite basketball.

[mossoholic]

you are going off assumption, again, and on a very small sample size. that was only a 5 minute gap I provided, hardly enough to base anything from. this product was up for over an hour, im sure there was more than 300 orders before and after me. I got 4 cases and there are 1000 orders between my first and last order, even if 1 box each (which lets face it the big dogs like Blowout, DA, SCC, Platinum, Layton aren't buying single boxes) the math adds up.

The product sold out give or take 25 seconds after your last order. There is virtually 0% chance of 300 orders after your last one. I believe the same on 300 orders before you. I can't see breakers paying over $1,000 when they can buy hobby for $700 or less. In most cases they probably get a decent amount of allocation way below that. Again why would the big dogs take a risk? When they for sure see the market they are pretty much taking no risk. They were hardly buying any FOTL for awhile, outside of a few times DAC did it like on 2020 Elite Football FOTL, so now all of a sudden they start to do it when sellout prices have skyrocketed? For 18+ months they could have been buying every FOTL product around or below their presale prices. Most times they barely bought any. Now they are deciding to buy cases at a price well over that number? Please

[kensanity]

had to be more than 300 boxes, I alone got 4 cases at 850 and 900. i think everyone underestimates how many breakers are buying cases vs. pulling the product early. If i got 4, imagine how many places like Layton and Platinum got. Then throw in DA, Blowout, SCC etc

Sent you a DM about something related in case you maybe overlooked.

[PSA2Pac]

So they'll pay 10x more then sell products for 50% cheaper.

:)!

I didn’t say anything about being ‘cheaper’. Nothing.

Sorry, I don’t share your eternal pessimism about everything under the sun. If Fanatics doesn’t work out, so be it. I’ll be the first to accept it.

[casebreaksllc]

Makes sense. I guess if you guys have a cust base that buys in I get it, but I do stand by my opinion that hobby is the much better buy at their respective prices for everyone (not that I'm saying hobby is a good buy either lol)

And yea, the FOTL exclusives guaranteed are in the product so if the best FOTL exclusive is an RPA/3 the Lamelo is going to be in there. I'm just saying there's no chance they put something like the Lamelo logman in an NT, spectra or flawless FOTL box or his Gold vinyl in Optic, etc. Cards like that which aren't FOTL exclusive will never be hit in an FOTL box.

You never know, I don't really think panini cares/pays attention, they send it to the printers and cash the checks.

I feel you though, I do agree prices are insane right now, but I am not going to give up something I was doing before the boom just because prices have gone up. as with any business you just have to adjust.

[casebreaksllc]

The product sold out give or take 25 seconds after your last order. There is virtually 0% chance of 300 orders after your last one. I believe the same on 300 orders before you. I can't see breakers paying over $1,000 when they can buy hobby for $700 or less. In most cases they probably get a decent amount of allocation way below that. Again why would the big dogs take a risk? When they for sure see the market they are pretty much taking no risk. They were hardly buying any FOTL for awhile, outside of a few times DAC did it like on 2020 Elite Football FOTL, so now all of a sudden they start to do it when sellout prices have skyrocketed? For 18+ months they could have been buying every FOTL product around or below their presale prices. Most times they barely bought any. Now they are deciding to buy cases at a price well over that number? Please

again, assumptions. literally every post you make is based on assumptions. you don't know whos getting what for allocation, and if an average breaker like me is buying and filling 4 cases, you can surely bet there are dozens and dozens more just like me or bigger buying...

I can buy hobby for $700, and I will. I get allocation as well, and I still buy FOTL. you need to stop with the assumptions because they are easily proved wrong. I am doing exactly what you are "assuming" nobody does, and it's not hard to see im not alone...

[casebreaksllc]

Yes I do see the prices they are selling for. Which by your logic of buying Optic you should have been buying 10+ cases of those products, correct? So did you spend $50,000-$100,000 on each of those products? Select basketball FOTL, NT basketball FOTL, and Elite basketball.

yes, I did. don't see how that's relevant, but there are definitely people out there buying regardless of what you think. I would have kept buying optic if it didn't sell out. same with NT, Select, Certified, Black, the list goes on.

[casebreaksllc]

The product sold out give or take 25 seconds after your last order. There is virtually 0% chance of 300 orders after your last one. I believe the same on 300 orders before you. I can't see breakers paying over $1,000 when they can buy hobby for $700 or less. In most cases they probably get a decent amount of allocation way below that. Again why would the big dogs take a risk? When they for sure see the market they are pretty much taking no risk. They were hardly buying any FOTL for awhile, outside of a few times DAC did it like on 2020 Elite Football FOTL, so now all of a sudden they start to do it when sellout prices have skyrocketed? For 18+ months they could have been buying every FOTL product around or below their presale prices. Most times they barely bought any. Now they are deciding to buy cases at a price well over that number? Please

I only screen shot my last 2 orders, of the 4, it was a 12 box maximum so I had to put 4 orders in. There is well over 1000 orders between my first and last, and I definitely wasn't the first to pull the trigger. The math adds up you just don't want to see it in fear of being wrong.

[mossoholic]

again, assumptions. literally every post you make is based on assumptions. you don't know whos getting what for allocation, and if an average breaker like me is buying and filling 4 cases, you can surely bet there are dozens and dozens more just like me or bigger buying...

I can buy hobby for $700, and I will. I get allocation as well, and I still buy FOTL. you need to stop with the assumptions because they are easily proved wrong. I am doing exactly what you are "assuming" nobody does, and it's not hard to see im not alone...

So you were buying Optic FOTL at $1,000 a box plus tax then? What would happen if one of these times the dutch auction goes like it used to? With a floor of $300, if Optic was dutch auctioned 3 months ago it would have sold out under $600. Would you have just ended up buying 20% of the print run or quit buying? Why take the risk if buying hobby for you is no risk? Did you get killed a ton earlier in the year from basketball FOTL and hobby prices tanking?

From the sounds of it you do more business breaking than any of the big 3 do. At least for FOTL. I can't find your breaks though when searching. I don't check breaks every day but I don't know a single FOTL product released in the last 3 months that any of the big 3 have broke 4 or more cases of besides maybe NT FOTL. For awhile I would check DAC because I had some gift codes to use. Seemed like they very rarely had FOTL. That is in terms of breaking. It was mostly all hobby. But I guess they could be selling it instead of breaking it. Although I don't know why anyone would pay 15-35% more per box than ebay or fb. I know there were a few FOTL products in the past they bought a ton of and each time it seemed like they barely made anything. I remember when they had 2020 Elite Football FOTL on ebay and had over 100 boxes. Who knows how much their cost average was but they couldn't have been making very much per box. They were stuck with them for awhile.

The one thing we can probably agree on is that FOTL is almost all being bought by breakers now. Almost no average buyer is buying it now or at these prices will be buying it in the future.

[mossoholic]

I only screen shot my last 2 orders, of the 4, it was a 12 box maximum so I had to put 4 orders in. There is well over 1000 orders between my first and last, and I definitely wasn't the first to pull the trigger. The math adds up you just don't want to see it in fear of being wrong.

Lol fear of being wrong? What does it matter if I'm right or wrong? I'm gonna end up with the exact same amount of product.

Ok so if you're now spending all this money can you explain to me what has changed from now compared to 6 months ago? Compared to 1 year ago? The hobby right now is ice cold compared to 6 months or a year ago. Why a month or so ago did all these guys seem to come together to start spending so much more for all these products than ever before? What changed in basically 1 week to go from Select basketball FOTL selling out at $750 to Spectra FOTL selling out at what was it around $1300?

I guess banking on people being stupid is smart. If they were legit sales the day of the Optic FOTL someone paid $1500 multiple boxes on ebay. The dutch auction started at $1500 and ended at $850. Within hours multiple buyers paid around $1450-$1500 for a box. That isn't FOMO. That is someone having as low of a functioning iq as is possible. If you were willing to buy at the starting price of $1500 who wouldn't be buying at $500 a box cheaper?

Either way sounds like everything is working out for you. Congrats on being part of the super rich.

[JAMSC]

So basically all the breakers are paying absurd prices for boxes keeping them wildly overpriced. It’s ok though because they know they can all still make money by ripping off the degenerate gambling suckers that make up their customer base by charging them an even higher price to the point that the EV of a break is worse than the EV of buying scratch off tickets.

[JAMSC]

Ok so if you're now spending all this money can you explain to me what has changed from now compared to 6 months ago? Compared to 1 year ago? The hobby right now is ice cold compared to 6 months or a year ago. Why a month or so ago did all these guys seem to come together to start spending so much more for all these products than ever before? What changed in basically 1 week to go from Select basketball FOTL selling out at $750 to Spectra FOTL selling out at what was it around $1300?

This is pure speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that Panini made some sort of back door deal with some of their favored customers to be able to “buy” in dutch auctions but only pay a fraction of the sale price compared to the general public. There has to be some way that they have incentivized this sudden change in behavior after a few bad sales in a row.