How I identify and invest in prospects -- how do you do it?

[calmar]

As someone who is trying to identify and invest in prospects, which I know is a tricky endeavor full of pitfalls, I'm curious about what kinds of approaches other people use.

I have focused on players who tend to be described as exciting and dynamic, with multiple tools but especially with power hitting potential. I use Baseball America, Fangraphs, and MLB Pipeline for research, I follow Minor League box scores, and I regularly google prospect names to see what local media are writing about them. I don't invest in pitchers, I'm reluctant to invest in catchers, and I'm somewhat reluctant to invest in players on struggling/problematic franchises like Colorado (I might otherwise have spent more on Zac Veen). I tend to focus on 1st Bowmans. The players I've put the most money into since last December are these:

Marco Luciano
Wander Franco
Julio Rodriguez
Triston Casas
Brennen Davis
Ronny Mauricio
Kristian Robinson
Jarren Duran
Bobby Witt Jr.
Riley Greene
Heliot Ramos
Robert Puason

Puason and Robinson seem like misses at this point, and obviously a lot of these players have been touted by virtually everyone, but Rodriguez, Casas, Davis, Mauricio, Duran, and Greene seemed undervalued to me earlier this year, so I bought some of their stuff. I also think 2019 and 2020 Bowman Mega Boxes are undervalued given how many prospects, prospect variations, and prospect autos are in there, so I've bought some of those as sealed wax.

I probably got lucky with some of my picks, and would like to get better in the future. I also don't know what kinds of calculations are best when it comes to deciding on when to sell.

Any advice or tips others have would be much appreciated.

[cardsin47]

Uhhhhh……… free lessons on wealth building aren’t growing on trees around here :coffee:

[Cards and 401K]

Read sports magazines that highlight top prospects, listen to to fans who have seen them actually play in person in the minors, I collect 3 names on your list too, #2,3,9.

[Banks8181]

Fantasy Baseball articles and podcasts

[griffan15]

Follow the minor league daily thread by Jaypers.

[Bambino22]

I pulled a low number Marco on an expensive box. And then decided because of that skill to spend 10k on Marco Raw Bowman Sterling cards.

He may be struggling of late but I have selected him in my club and what happens happens. Very advanced analytics I strictly follow.

[LCM1223]

Buy Bird

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

watch youtube videos man. i'm big on watching these kids take their cuts.

[VinnyH]

I liked your list mostly because it lacks pitchers. They were a tough lot when I started prospecting and now are way tougher due to analytics.
Good luck,
Vinny :)!

[BaseballKing]

Uhhhhh……… free lessons on wealth building aren’t growing on trees around here :coffee:

Indeed. Learn from your own mistakes.

I could tell OP how I found Dylan Carlson in early 2019 when I first started prospecting. In the 16 months before that I was only busting wax and didn't buy my first single( non-Australian sports cards) until October 2018.

I'm tempted to tell OP exactly what I looked for but that would make it too easy for him. I think most prospectors know exactly what to look for now, give or take one or two different approaches, and that's why there are not as many opportunities as there were back then. We are all looking at the same guys - mostly.

Budget plays a big part. Marco Luciano's 1stBCA could be had for under $100 and JRod for about $150 when 2019 Bowman baseball released. I wanted to buy both at the time but it was a bit out of my range then. Wander was the obvious one but he was $500 out the gate. The other two represented great value but you had to act quickly. There prices shot up in no time.

Do the research OP. It's not rocket science.

P.S. my prospecting 'indicators' threw up two guys in 2021 Bowman Baseball. I missed one, but got the other.

[BaseballKing]

As someone who is trying to identify and invest in prospects, which I know is a tricky endeavor full of pitfalls, I'm curious about what kinds of approaches other people use.

I have focused on players who tend to be described as exciting and dynamic, with multiple tools but especially with power hitting potential. I use Baseball America, Fangraphs, and MLB Pipeline for research, I follow Minor League box scores, and I regularly google prospect names to see what local media are writing about them. I don't invest in pitchers, I'm reluctant to invest in catchers, and I'm somewhat reluctant to invest in players on struggling/problematic franchises like Colorado (I might otherwise have spent more on Zac Veen). I tend to focus on 1st Bowmans. The players I've put the most money into since last December are these:

Marco Luciano
Wander Franco
Julio Rodriguez
Triston Casas
Brennen Davis
Ronny Mauricio
Kristian Robinson
Jarren Duran
Bobby Witt Jr.
Riley Greene
Heliot Ramos
Robert Puason

Puason and Robinson seem like misses at this point, and obviously a lot of these players have been touted by virtually everyone, but Rodriguez, Casas, Davis, Mauricio, Duran, and Greene seemed undervalued to me earlier this year, so I bought some of their stuff. I also think 2019 and 2020 Bowman Mega Boxes are undervalued given how many prospects, prospect variations, and prospect autos are in there, so I've bought some of those as sealed wax.

I probably got lucky with some of my picks, and would like to get better in the future. I also don't know what kinds of calculations are best when it comes to deciding on when to sell.

Any advice or tips others have would be much appreciated.

It looks like budget is not much of an issue for you as some of those players' 1stBowman autos have been expensive for some time. All in all you've done very well with the names on those list.

Robinson - bust
Puasson - too early but not looking awesome, especially given his prices out the gate
Duran - way too old
Ramos - Bust
Davis - looks good but does not have the 1stBowman insignia on his first Bowman auto. It's not a disaster( see Devers/Jimenez, etc) but it would probably put a newby off. My guess is that it chips 10-20% off what it would've gone for. Not young anymore and was especially hurt by the 2020 shutdown.
Mauricio - still has a shot

All the others should work out very well. Those all look like top shelf picks. BWJ might be the best of the lot and if it wasn't for service time manipulation and the fact KC are not contending he would've been up on opening day.

If I had oodles of dough he's the one I'd be tageting the most from that list.

[Akphillips86]

Personally, I would stay away from true prospecting (guys that haven’t cracked the bigs yet) unless your buy in is minimal. It’s wayyyyy too easy to get burned. Especially when the hype out of the gate is wild.

I like to see what guys can do in the show for a bit, and even then I tread lightly with young players. Sure, your payday will be the biggest if you get in on a 1st BCA before a guy blows up in the bigs, but you have to get it right. No amount of reading scouting reports or statistical analysis will determine with any degree of certainty who is going to be the real deal.

I don’t mean to come across as overly cynical, but baseball can be a cruel game and there are no guarantees.


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[TKChicago]

Rip a ton of bowman

Look at all the 1st Bowmans /99 and less that you pull

Buy $5k of that guy.

Cross fingers

Lets go D'Shawn Knowles!

[BaseballKing]

Personally, I would stay away from true prospecting (guys that haven’t cracked the bigs yet) unless your buy in is minimal. It’s wayyyyy too easy to get burned. Especially when the hype out of the gate is wild.

I like to see what guys can do in the show for a bit, and even then I tread lightly with young players. Sure, your payday will be the biggest if you get in on a 1st BCA before a guy blows up in the bigs, but you have to get it right. No amount of reading scouting reports or statistical analysis will determine with any degree of certainty who is going to be the real deal.

I don’t mean to come across as overly cynical, but baseball can be a cruel game and there are no guarantees.


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True. But it sure is fun. Like everything, though, don't spend what you can't afford to lose. I'm building up a rather large tub of 1stBowman chrome autos that are steadily working their way to a few dollars. Not even worth selling at the moment. Most of those cards have taught me something

[VandyCards]

Pick a guy that signed for a lot of money and cross your fingers.

Outside of the proverbial penny stocks, there’s not a lot of creativity/low buy-in anymore. Not so many years ago, you could get top 10 international signees for under $20. I think there’s also fun to be had buying guys on post-pro debut dips (Pereira came out expensive, tanked because he had a crap 2019, and now I think has exceeded initial prices). But that’s a guessing game, and by and large we are all playing with the same info.


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[LVDan]

I think the best advice anyone can give is make sure you’re cashing in your singles and doubles while searching for a home run. Having your stuff scanned and ready to move a portion or all during spikes is key.
Just about everyone has access to all the same scouting info. Being aggressive with buying in lulls and selling during hot streaks is just as if not more important than the players themselves over time.


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[KhalDrogo]

Find a prospect 18 or younger that is an international signing, who will debut in rookie ball, and can hit for at least average power. Buy as much 1st Bowman as you can. Then create a BO hype thread. Make sure to bump it whenever they hit a HR or have a multi-hit game. Also make sure you have an IG with plenty of followers so you can get added visibility whenever they have these performances.

This is guaranteed to make you money.

[PGS]

Never invest in pitching prospects.

[Mister2Bits]

Never invest in pitching prospects.

Never is a strong word. Pitching prospects are harder and have less payoff than bats but there is definitely a market if you know how to play.

[hermanotarjeta]

At today’s prices, it’s a lose lose situation. So I don’t do it.

[eye4talent]

At today’s prices, it’s a lose lose situation. So I don’t do it.


I second this.


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[eye4talent]

Frankly, the best advice is to watch baseball, become obsessed with baseball, and consume it to the point that you’re combing through all levels of the game, searching for the next big things—not because it’s what you need to do to be successful at this, but because it’s a compulsion more entrenched than your wife’s scrolling through Instagram or Pinterest.

And if your instincts are strong, then, after taking a few lumps, you’ll find your players to invest in and make some fruitful investments.

But as Tarjeta said, it’s pretty much a losing proposition these days. Or, at least, it’s not nearly as easy to find hidden gems, and the entry points are much higher. Prospecting has just become so saturated with card scouts turning over every rock and trying to be right more so than making sound investments.

So, I don’t know, maybe consider the alternative: Invest in rookie cards of young players who’ve lost a little of their prospect shine, and who are on the verge of a major breakout.


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[LVDan]

So, I don’t know, maybe consider the alternative: Invest in rookie cards of young players who’ve lost a little of their prospect shine, and who are on the verge of a major breakout.


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Unexciting but this method can regularly yield a tank of gasoline or a big box of huggies. If you’re into that sort of thing.


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[eye4talent]

Unexciting but this method can regularly yield a tank of gasoline or a big box of huggies. If you’re into that sort of thing.


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I find it more exciting, actually, because you have a lot more choices. That makes the chase a much more diverse, hobby-esque endeavor. It’s not just loading up on the 1st Bowman Chrome auto, and maybe non-auto refractors.


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[hermanotarjeta]

I find it more exciting, actually, because you have a lot more choices. That makes the chase a much more diverse, hobby-esque endeavor. It’s not just loading up on the 1st Bowman Chrome auto, and maybe non-auto refractors.


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We've referred to this concept as "post-hype prospecting" in the past.

It's challenging because you are buying cards as they are going down in price, but the rewards can be just as fruitful or more so than just paying $1000 for the number one pick's first chrome auto and hoping to make a 50% profit.

[LVDan]

I find it more exciting, actually, because you have a lot more choices. That makes the chase a much more diverse, hobby-esque endeavor. It’s not just loading up on the 1st Bowman Chrome auto, and maybe non-auto refractors.


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Very true. I guess a better term would be far less volatility overall. It lacks the stratospheric highs(Soto) and subterranean lows(Maitan?) of pure prospecting. As mentioned by my hermano above, the ROIs can be staggering when it happens and far less painful when it doesn’t.

[Boredlawyer]

Go to fangraphs Board.

Sort by batters with FV greater than 45, age less than 20.
Get a Baseball America subscription, cross-check rankings and see if anyone is underrated or overrated on each end.

Remove any guys that have less than average raw power.

That's going to give you all the young, high ceiling hitters that will be popular. Honestly, pretty much everyone has access to the same information. There's enough people in the game thst prices fall in line with expectations.

Your best competitive advantage is going to involve developing an eye for scouting videos and picking up on things not published in BA or Fangraphs. There's no gems in the rough with the amount of eyes in the prospecting game.

[LVDan]

If I were still prospecting I’d probably be zagging to cheap projectable pitchers and mostly college bats. The exact opposite of most folks approach.
The immediate success of Ron/Juan and Fernando have juiced the prospecting game into pretty risky levels of buy in vs expectations.
The guy who cleans the dog poop in our neighborhood drives a sixty thousand dollar pickup and is done by 2pm every day.

[biggieruth]

Its far from over for Kristian Robinson and few other prospects.

[Bambino22]

Rip a ton of bowman

Look at all the 1st Bowmans /99 and less that you pull

Buy $5k of that guy.

Cross fingers

Lets go D'Shawn Knowles!

Me and you would get along great!

[Badgers0821]

Its far from over for Kristian Robinson and few other prospects.

Robinson is someone I would probably buy now. His cards are way down and it has nothing to do with his ability/play...if he is able to get out of this legal trouble you should be able to flip those pretty quickly because he is a good player. Low risk, high reward.

[SaveMeTheGum]

The team matters too. Similar to young QB's, there are just teams that don't make prospects, and some that do. Seattle for example always has top prospect type guys (Ackley, Zunino, Kelenic, Hultzen come to mind) but when was the last guy they've had worth the hype? Ichiro?

[MoreToppsPlease]

The only “skill” required is to act (buy/sell) upon market fluctuations to the extent that takes your risk profile into account.

The more market volatility that exists the more opportunities to act will exist.

Anything else anybody says here really doesn’t matter… except for blind luck…and for dumb, newbie buyers that all flippers pray for.

No different than flipping anything else, really.

[jcfill]

Davis - looks good but does not have the 1stBowman insignia on his first Bowman auto. It's not a disaster( see Devers/Jimenez, etc) but it would probably put a newby off. My guess is that it chips 10-20% off what it would've gone for. Not young anymore and was especially hurt by the 2020 shutdown.

Brennen Davis is only 21, if he’s old so is Bobby Witt haha

[BigSeph]

If I were still prospecting I’d probably be zagging to cheap projectable pitchers and mostly college bats. The exact opposite of most folks approach.
The immediate success of Ron/Juan and Fernando have juiced the prospecting game into pretty risky levels of buy in vs expectations.
The guy who cleans the dog poop in our neighborhood drives a sixty thousand dollar pickup and is done by 2pm every day.

This is where I'm at.

I'm not afraid of HS guys getting TJ surgery either.

When 2017 Bowman Draft came out, I loaded up on Nate Pearson.

Sold out of everything except 1 gold auto 9.5 before the callup. Didn't time it right, missed out on some of the runup, but was still thrilled to see those $6 autos selling for $25.

2018 Draft I loaded up on Grayson Rodriguez.

See how many Bowman autos you can find on ebay compared to other prospects, there's a guy hoarding them and I actually sold out to him for almost 3x what I was in for. He will probably make a killing since Grayson is a consensus top-3 pitching prospect and #1 on a lot of lists. But I cashed out.

2019 I skipped, would have been George Kirby or Seth Johnson but I couldn't get them at the prices I wanted early on and saw way too many gold and orange autos go by.

2020 I loaded up (and I'm still loading up) on Carter Baumler, I literally own zero baseball cards except for an 86 Bonds Tiffany 9.5 and a massive stack of Baumler autos.

So I am not afraid of pitchers and I feel like they are easier to spot and identify than batters. Really just need to find guys with an outstanding fastball + control, or so much control and swing and miss (like Kirby) that it's a no-brainer they will make it to MLB. Their ceiling (and the profit on them) is always lower than the big fastball guys, but there's profit to be made there.

I will always sell out just before they get called up, and hold back a gold BC auto 9.5 for myself in case they turn into Max Scherzer one day.

But pitchers are never a long play for me, and I'd imagine college hitters are very similar because you aren't expecting them to be HOFer-types in the long run, you just want them to make it to the majors so you can sell off.

I'm happy to hold $6-10 pitcher autos and sell a little early and get out.

A guy like Nick Loftin who was a garbage $3 auto in 2020 Bowman Draft when it came out, will probably bring in a nice return for anyone who stacked him up. Solid college hitter, nothing spectacular, just enjoy the steady buildup in the minors until he's about to make his MLB debut and sell off.

[NewLondonWhaler]

Robinson is someone I would probably buy now. His cards are way down and it has nothing to do with his ability/play...if he is able to get out of this legal trouble you should be able to flip those pretty quickly because he is a good player. Low risk, high reward.

Thing about Robinson right now is the experience. He's 20, going on 21, he hasn't played since 2019.. He never has gone above A+. He could miss next season which will be crucial for his development.. It's hard to recover from all of that missed time. It will take some time to adjust if he comes back at all.

Sure you can roll the dice on him, He develop as a 24/25 year in the upper minors into something if he gets come playing time in his 22/23 season. But I'm skeptical.

[Badgers0821]

Thing about Robinson right now is the experience. He's 20, going on 21, he hasn't played since 2019.. He never has gone above A+. He could miss next season which will be crucial for his development.. It's hard to recover from all of that missed time. It will take some time to adjust if he comes back at all.

Sure you can roll the dice on him, He develop as a 24/25 year in the upper minors into something if he gets come playing time in his 22/23 season. But I'm skeptical.

Hence the low risk/high reward...

[CanadianKid]

I just buy every name mentioned in the daily minor league update thread.

[MasonAsher]

It's weird - the best money I've made has been in pitchers.

[Gthompson1978]

I buy 2nd and 3rd rounders, they’re affordable and it’s not a huge gamble…….also I use the daily thread as well as the Canadian Kid

[BaseballKing]

Brennen Davis is only 21, if he’s old so is Bobby Witt haha

My bad. I thought he was 22.

He turns 22 early this November. The comparison with BWJ wasn't the best. Not all 21 year olds are equal.

BWJ is likely to get called up next year as a 21 year old. The age gap may only be 7 months but it's there.

[BaseballKing]

Find a prospect 18 or younger that is an international signing, who will debut in rookie ball, and can hit for at least average power. Buy as much 1st Bowman as you can. Then create a BO hype thread. Make sure to bump it whenever they hit a HR or have a multi-hit game. Also make sure you have an IG with plenty of followers so you can get added visibility whenever they have these performances.

This is guaranteed to make you money.

Sad but almost certainly true.

[hermanotarjeta]

Sad but almost certainly true.

Isn't that the role of every single player thread on the entire forum?

[BaseballKing]

Here's some of my golden rules which seemed apparent early on.

1. No pitchers
2. No catchers
3. No college bats

Those are the basics.

4. If going local then look for 18 year olds in the late first round, early second round of the draft. The early high school picks are too expensive from the start.

5. Stay away from a kid who turns 19 in the year he is drafted( Dylan Carlson only turned 18 in October of the year he was drafted).

6.International is by far the best way to go if you want the high risk high reward. Again, no pitchers, no catchers( Diego Cartaya might be the exeption). Must be 17 or young 18 year old and playing. Height and body type are very important imo.

For the shortened version see Khal Drogo's take.

[BaseballKing]

Isn't that the role of every single player thread on the entire forum?

Call me naive but I didn't think so. It seems obvious to me now. Slow learner.

[Pacmeyer]

You could follow the rump school of choosing prospects. Basically, flat behinds don't succeed. Not exactly scientific but here it is...

https://slate.com/culture/2010/04/what-can-you-learn-from-staring-at-a-baseball-player-s-butt.html

[Archangel1775]

I pick flamethrowers that either dont make the big leagues or if they do, they throw their arm out and need Tommy John surgery.

[tonedef2oo8]

I do my own research.

[CanadianKid]

Here's some of my golden rules which seemed apparent early on.

1. No pitchers
2. No catchers
3. No college bats

Those are the basics.

4. If going local then look for 18 year olds in the late first round, early second round of the draft. The early high school picks are too expensive from the start.

5. Stay away from a kid who turns 19 in the year he is drafted( Dylan Carlson only turned 18 in October of the year he was drafted).

6.International is by far the best way to go if you want the high risk high reward. Again, no pitchers, no catchers( Diego Cartaya might be the exeption). Must be 17 or young 18 year old and playing. Height and body type are very important imo.

For the shortened version see Khal Drogo's take.


Curious, are you using these metrics to gauge investments op. or in other words ROI only where you buy/sell within years or are you actually using them to predict future success in MLB?

[jayjones82]

If I were still prospecting I’d probably be zagging to cheap projectable pitchers and mostly college bats. The exact opposite of most folks approach.
The immediate success of Ron/Juan and Fernando have juiced the prospecting game into pretty risky levels of buy in vs expectations.
The guy who cleans the dog poop in our neighborhood drives a sixty thousand dollar pickup and is done by 2pm every day.

Is your dog poop guy hiring?

[cardsin47]

Is your dog poop guy hiring?


https://media3.giphy.com/media/de9SDw6PGRsubN1o3X/giphy.gif


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[abcd1234]

The reality is, there is not a clear way to identify what you will get in a pack because they not only make it random, but scarce to find the hyped cards.

I just dont go overboard and spend all my money on cards...they want you to do that but you dont always get the best return.

Remember Mike Trout, he was kinda unknown as a prospect and his cards are now highly sought after. So just collect what you can and enjoy knowing that a list of top prospects does not always mean you have who will be a superstar in the majors.

[abcd1234]

Never is a strong word. Pitching prospects are harder and have less payoff than bats but there is definitely a market if you know how to play.

I think of the huge hype around Stephen Strasburg. Everybody was chasing his cards at the time.

[SleepyWill]

Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, and Red Sox prospects . . .

Follow them, collect them early, and profit.

[ottobord]

Go the games if you can. Box scores tell half of the story. If you watched alot of baseball live you can get a pretty good feeling who's the blooming stars by the play on the field. Easier to judge arm strength, speed, fielding skills etc. Especially for catchers and infielders.

[NewLondonWhaler]

Hence the low risk/high reward...

His 18' Bowman is going for about $30 now. Maybe could be a good winter buy if he dips to $15-25

[cardsin47]

You’ve been reported churcael - bye bye

[Banks8181]

95% of Bowman Chrome 1sts and autos are going to be a tough loss for people. I remember a few years back you could get decent autos at release for like 80-100 bucks. I love Bowman but it’s a poor investment at this point imo

[ScooterD]

Was that a work email?

[Nung2019]

Chicks dig the longball…. So do collectors

[oraclesports]

I have a few strategies and things to look for:

First, I am looking at the prospects' age. Anything 18-22 is fine. Once we get to 23 years old, the skillset has to be great for me to even consider.

I am looking for prospects with raw power, power, or power potential. I am not going to buy Xavier Edwards for example.

Next, if the power checks out, I am looking at position. Third baseman, shortstop, second base, outfield positions are all fine. I can deal with catcher if he has tools I like.

Now onto the hit tool. Are they a big swing and miss hitter like Ryan Holgate? If so, I might grab one or two but nothing more. Strikeout rate is important for me.

The system the prospect plays in is important for me.

For example:

-The mets are good at drafting players with impact during their minor league experience, but they always flame out after reaching the big leagues. I am not holding that long anyways.

-The Marlins have had incredible troubles developing position player prospects. That is why I did not touch Bleday with a 10 foot pole.

Now, prices. I am not going to buy Jasson Dominguez. Can I make money on him? Maybe. Can I make more money at less risk on Jeferson Quero? You bet.

I buy sleepers, and non sleepers.

There are a few more factors, but this is the majority of what I look for.

[Nung2019]

Power,power, power…play in good markets and any position but 2b and catcher

[unclemonkey]

I think the best advice anyone can give is make sure you’re cashing in your singles and doubles while searching for a home run. Having your stuff scanned and ready to move a portion or all during spikes is key.
Just about everyone has access to all the same scouting info. Being aggressive with buying in lulls and selling during hot streaks is just as if not more important than the players themselves over time.


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Grading companies have grinded some things to a halt.

But the above is great advice.^^^^^^

Have the images ready and possibly the listing ready to go on eBay.

Go back and look at prices paid during the big case breaks for each year.

Compare the scouting grades.

Would you believe Robles graded 65 and Soto 55?

Buy last years model.

Easier said than done.

Let the hobby $$$ guide you ( Soto, Acuna, Tatis)

I doubt you will uncover a gem.

... but you can buy the hobby dead (Bellinger 2nd year)

Diversify into RC's

I could have bought 100 non auto PSA 10 Eloy RC's for what I got into Wes Kath auto spots.

... and I knew better. (See Bellinger 3rd year)

Expect to make mistakes.

[beavers]

I look for guys who are going to climb prospect rankings. Young position guys who are going to look like everyday players eventually. I don't worry about star power all that much as I am typically going to move on prior to that. For example, the guy I was diving into last year was Luis Matos. Midway through last year i started buying Brayan Rocchio.

[ottobord]

Go to the games. Not easy I know. But if you have an eye for talent you can see things the boxscores can't say. For example just one visit to Hudson Valley I walked away with some interesting impressions about Volpe, Wells etc

[bigdog2003]

Go to the games. Not easy I know. But if you have an eye for talent you can see things the boxscores can't say. For example just one visit to Hudson Valley I walked away with some interesting impressions about Volpe, Wells etc

I tried this once, I've been around baseball my entire life as a player and coach and I missed big. Went to a Greenville Drive game, saw a 2nd baseman that was hitting about 200 and looked lost on the field. I told my friends that he wouldn't make it in baseball. But, they did have a first baseman from Australia that was driving the ball all over the field, played solid defense and had a good eye, so I went with him.

The first guy was Mookie Betts, I picked Boss Moanaroa. I'm an idiot and no longer try prospecting.

[JRX]

Buy high sell low

[holygrail22]

Here's a tangentially related question:

When investing, how many ungraded cards are equal in price to a single card graded a PSA 9? PSA 10? Is it better to invest in ungraded or graded?

[rwperu34]

I have two lists. One is prospect rank/grade, the other is price (adjusted for team and age). Then I put them side by side and voila!

[doowopbruce]

Hitters only. Players I enjoy following for one reason or another.

[theshowandme]

I watch for NyPost articles saying a Yankees prospect is the next Mantle/Trout/Mays/Griffey hybrid.

Then I watch everyone else buy his cards up.

And I buy the shortstop in the same release because he’s 90% cheaper

:)!

[YayNJ]

What's everyone's opinion on JEREMY DE LA ROSA?

[Boredlawyer]

What's everyone's opinion on JEREMY DE LA ROSA?

Calling him "Baby Soto" was capitalizing on peak prospect overreaction. Clearly the Nats thought he had potential because they promoted him aggressively, but good prospects generally don't look completely lost at the plate, even if they are young for the level. There's a faint chance that the prospect of above-average tools across the boards transpires in a drastic turnaround, but the Bowman graveyard is filled with Yasel Antunas and Antoni Floreses.

[imbluestreak23]

I buy everyone, so I can't lose

https://c.tenor.com/GPY_xF7gVOoAAAAC/gotta-catch-em-all.gif

[unclemonkey]

Here's a tangentially related question:

When investing, how many ungraded cards are equal in price to a single card graded a PSA 9? PSA 10? Is it better to invest in ungraded or graded?


If I believe in a guy, certainly will focus some funds into graded PSA 9 non auto refractors and PSA 10 chrome.

Be patient and you can pick off low hanging fruit near grading cost.

Especially if hampered by performance or injury.

Easy profit with little risk and makes for an easy flip.

Example, you could have bought Bellinger all day in the post 2018 playoffs for a fraction of value.

Had never seen such hobby hate.

In 2019, he explodes and every card/grade increase substantially in value.

[YayNJ]

Calling him "Baby Soto" was capitalizing on peak prospect overreaction. Clearly the Nats thought he had potential because they promoted him aggressively, but good prospects generally don't look completely lost at the plate, even if they are young for the level. There's a faint chance that the prospect of above-average tools across the boards transpires in a drastic turnaround, but the Bowman graveyard is filled with Yasel Antunas and Antoni Floreses.

He seems to be progressing well... and a respected scout recently mentioned he could have 5 tools..

(De La Rosa, for anyone wondering who we're talking about)

[Mooch1]

As mentioned folks love the big power bats
Personally I compare the power ratings in scout reports
55 I like 60 is darn nice and 70 is ohh yeahhhh
I’m new at this so I have o track record LOL
I have my guys that I think are the bomb like Nolan gorman
And my missed out may get there guys
Or they too old at24-26 years old guys
Wallner,burdick,misner,toglia and some others LOL
While I ain’t buying many of there bowman first autos?
I feel like there’s potential with some of there other auto cards
If I’m wrong which is quite likely?
I’m out 5-10 dollars on some of the cards
15-20 on others
Buttttttt if I’m right ?
Smiles oh happy day

[Triple B]

Count how many times people have said "cross your fingers" and you'll realize that's the most truthful answer you'll get.

Vlad was one of the last big prospects one could affordably hoard. I was buying his base 1st Autos for $75 and there was a little hype behind him at release. Now? Forget it. The slightest hype behind a prospect shoots card prices into the stratosphere. Too much to lose buying in so high.

I just stick to my team's prospects (the Jays) and trust that whatever Mark Shapiro sees in these kids pans out for me. I wouldn't put that same trust in most other evaluators considering how well the Jays have done in churning out talent the last few years.

[espnfanco]

95% of Bowman Chrome 1sts and autos are going to be a tough loss for people. I remember a few years back you could get decent autos at release for like 80-100 bucks. I love Bowman but it’s a poor investment at this point imo

More like 30-50 dollars (Mookie)

[espnfanco]

I buy everyone, so I can't lose

https://c.tenor.com/GPY_xF7gVOoAAAAC/gotta-catch-em-all.gif

That’s what I did and still lost

[ObanMontecristo]

I’m not giving away my secret strategy, and will let my Scott Kingery, Domonic Brown and Maikel Franco collections speak for themselves.

[Mooch1]

That’s what I did and still lost

LOL cousin!!!!!!!

[rwperu34]

One thing to remember when talking about the higher buy in....the payoff is also much higher.

[Mooch1]

One thing to remember when talking about the higher buy in....the payoff is also much higher.

Yeah but the ones I want you want LOL
It amazes me the prices on some of the cards these days
And I mean 15-20000 and up for a three four year old card?
Who has pockets thatttttttttt deep?
Sorry sour grapes on my part lol

[tonedef2oo8]

Do your own research and invest in who you like.

And that don’t mean make a topic asking who to invest in.

[Slvnumber2]

Go with hitters over pitchers all day. Unless it is Ryan, Seaver, Koufax or a few others pitchers don’t make a lot of $$ in cards. The way I do it is as follows:

*young power bats who are under 20/21 with lean frame and good exit velo - 105+. Big guys who are 6’1 and 220+ are already maxed out and don’t have as much upside. JRod, BWJ, Davis, Mayer, House, Lawlar…

* go with Athletic guys who play OF, SS, 3B.

* keep up with the minor league thread on this board

* watch the transition from A ball to AA and see how they respond and improve. This is the biggest jump talent wise, and most top prospects usually go from AA the bigs if they perform well or have a brief stint in AAA unless they are blocked at the big league level.

* see how hitters hit for power in A ball in the Florida State league versus New York Penn league or Atlantic league. Have hit in both and ball does not travel well in Florida and parks are much bigger where parks in places like Savannah and Lexington are smaller. Florida State league you can tag it and it goes nowhere plus parks are used for MLB spring training and have legit dimensions. 330-375-400 while smaller leagues you will see some 310 down the lines with strange angles and dimensions.

* with higher prospects check how they do at big league spring training. Witt Jr hit a 484 foot bomb last year after having a year where he hit 1 Hr in the minors. It takes a year or two to get adjusted to wood bats versus aluminum bats - extra weight, smaller sweet spot, and there certain pitches you see with wood you thst you know you can’t swing at because it will turn your bat into firewood.

* last thing is what organization are they in. Certain ones develop players better and will be on TV more - Red Sox, Yankees, Braves… versus Brewers, Rockies, A’s, Mariners…

[OlDirtyBaztid]

If I believe in a guy, certainly will focus some funds into graded PSA 9 non auto refractors and PSA 10 chrome.

Be patient and you can pick off low hanging fruit near grading cost.

Especially if hampered by performance or injury.

Easy profit with little risk and makes for an easy flip.

Example, you could have bought Bellinger all day in the post 2018 playoffs for a fraction of value.

Had never seen such hobby hate.

In 2019, he explodes and every card/grade increase substantially in value.
ohtani was huge for me. i bought an ohtani gold for $5 from a guy in canada two summers ago. every base rookie was never more than a few bucks. also was hated by the hobby

[Boredlawyer]

He seems to be progressing well... and a respected scout recently mentioned he could have 5 tools..

(De La Rosa, for anyone wondering who we're talking about)

Here's my thought on De La Rosa:

He's twenty now, and has been overmatched at every point in his career. At some point, athletic ability (there's a LOT of guys that have five tool potential) has to transpire into usable on-field ability. He struck out at a 34% rate in Low A. Was he 19 the entire year? Yes. Has he been totally dominated at both levels dating back to his 2019 debut? Yes.

Most importantly, there's not a particularly long runway for five tool potential to develop into on-field statistics before a guy's star power fades. The future stars generally don't look totally overmatched for multiple seasons, before suddenly learning how to hit. Guys DO develop power as their body hits maturity, but approach generally won't totally change.

A De La Rosa chrome is down from something like $75 last summer during the "Baby Soto" boom to $20-25. I figure there's a 1-5% chance he rakes this year as he repeats Low A, and sees a 5x return on his cards. If he rakes Low A at age 20, he'd established himself as a backend Top 100 prospect with big question marks on potentially jumping from A+ to AA in 2023/24. I think that's about a $100 chrome auto. If he continues his current pace.. Which I give about a 90% shot to, he's Luis Almanzar/Antoni Flores-lots of potential, none materialized. The payoff isn't there for me. Occasionally a guy like de la Rosa WILL hit, but the math says it's a losing game on the buy side.

[BigL7370]

Power guys who project no athleticism whatsoever are usually hit and miss - guys who do have pop [who may post big HR numbers at a various stop] but may have no position, can't run and/or projected as DHs [even if that is going to be an entire MLB position] are red flags.