rwperu34
12-15-2021, 04:56 AM
Headline number is....incomplete. There were zero Mike Trout sales in the time frame. I've always been on the fence on having Trout in there because of the threat of being Pujols'd. What I mean by that is Albert Pujols is obviously one of the top Bowman Chrome Autos of all time, but I've never had him in the index. When it sells it sells for a pantload of cash, but they hardly ever sell. Makes it tough to gauge the market because you're always relying on the whim of one sale.
Headline Number
The headline number for the non Trout portion of the market is +25%. Quite a bit disappointing, especially given the start we had. To put it in index form;
Nov 2017: 100
Nov 2018: 130
Nov 2019: 155
Nov 2020: 235
Nov 2021: 295
In Season Breakdown
Here's the index at a few checkpoints during the season.
Nov 2020: 235
Jan 2021: 345
Apr 2021: 390
Jun 2021: 305
Sep 2021: 315
Nov 2021: 295
"Class" Breakdown
This is their classification at the start of the year (eg Wander is with the prospects)
Graduates (26 or older in 2021), +1%
Young MLB (25 and under), +26%
Prospects, +39%
Average Player
This will be my new go to metric for evaluating my performance. Instead of weighting by dollars I'll just take the straight average of all players. It gets kind of funky at the bottom of the list (ie guys who shouldn't be in the index....like Gallo!), but overall I think this is a better measure for self evaluation. The reason for that is just because a player is cheap doesn't mean you can't spend as much or more on any given player. For example I'm about even on Adell and Paredes despite Adell being 20x more expensive. I just have better and more cards of Paredes.
Overall, +15%
Graduate, Even
Young, +1%
Prospects, +32%
The median player was down 1.5 % (not bad, actually). Only 23 of 66 were up enough to cover fees.
Gainers and Losers
I count anything +/- 10% as a wash.
Overall, 29 up, 28 down, 9 tie.
Graduate, 5-6-1
Young, 9-12-4
Prospect, 15-10-4
As you can see, every metric points to prospects as the best investment this year. That is not always the case.
Biggest % gainers: Vlad, Witt, Jesus Sanchez, J-Rod, Alek Thomas. All five up over 2x.
Biggest $ gainers: Vlad, Tatis, Wander. Big gap between all three, then another big gap to a group of 5 players.
Biggest % losers: Keston Hiura, Andres Gimenez, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell
Biggest $ losers: Bellinger, Lindor, Adell, Gleyber.
The Martian is down 13% (not bad) and in the next group for biggest dollar losers. I have a feeling 2022 is going to be a very volatile year for him.
Headline Number
The headline number for the non Trout portion of the market is +25%. Quite a bit disappointing, especially given the start we had. To put it in index form;
Nov 2017: 100
Nov 2018: 130
Nov 2019: 155
Nov 2020: 235
Nov 2021: 295
In Season Breakdown
Here's the index at a few checkpoints during the season.
Nov 2020: 235
Jan 2021: 345
Apr 2021: 390
Jun 2021: 305
Sep 2021: 315
Nov 2021: 295
"Class" Breakdown
This is their classification at the start of the year (eg Wander is with the prospects)
Graduates (26 or older in 2021), +1%
Young MLB (25 and under), +26%
Prospects, +39%
Average Player
This will be my new go to metric for evaluating my performance. Instead of weighting by dollars I'll just take the straight average of all players. It gets kind of funky at the bottom of the list (ie guys who shouldn't be in the index....like Gallo!), but overall I think this is a better measure for self evaluation. The reason for that is just because a player is cheap doesn't mean you can't spend as much or more on any given player. For example I'm about even on Adell and Paredes despite Adell being 20x more expensive. I just have better and more cards of Paredes.
Overall, +15%
Graduate, Even
Young, +1%
Prospects, +32%
The median player was down 1.5 % (not bad, actually). Only 23 of 66 were up enough to cover fees.
Gainers and Losers
I count anything +/- 10% as a wash.
Overall, 29 up, 28 down, 9 tie.
Graduate, 5-6-1
Young, 9-12-4
Prospect, 15-10-4
As you can see, every metric points to prospects as the best investment this year. That is not always the case.
Biggest % gainers: Vlad, Witt, Jesus Sanchez, J-Rod, Alek Thomas. All five up over 2x.
Biggest $ gainers: Vlad, Tatis, Wander. Big gap between all three, then another big gap to a group of 5 players.
Biggest % losers: Keston Hiura, Andres Gimenez, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell
Biggest $ losers: Bellinger, Lindor, Adell, Gleyber.
The Martian is down 13% (not bad) and in the next group for biggest dollar losers. I have a feeling 2022 is going to be a very volatile year for him.