Michael Jordan - 1990's Inserts Price Differences

[BryceSnape]

Hi All -

I wanted to get everyone's opinion about the various price differences I am seeing on some Michael Jordan cards.

It appears to me that rarity of certain inserts is not being properly valued in the marketplace. It feels like people are putting more weight on population reports or maybe some are just seen as "cooler looking".

Example 1:
1997 SPx ProMotion #PM1 - ProMotion cards were 1:430 packs. I just got a PSA 9 (pop 38; 9 higher - overall pop 86) for $1,000.

vs.

1997 SPx Holoview Hereos #H1 - Holoview Heroes were 1:75 packs. PSA overall pop of 84 with 51 PSA 9 and 11 graded higher. A PSA 9 just sold for $700-740.

Given that ProMotion Jordans are almost 6X as rare, this makes me think that they should be valued significantly higher than the current 40% price difference. They are from the same product. It makes me think that people are going off pop reports when I would argue you need to give a lot of weight to the rarity of the cards (i.e. I would expect the pop report of Holoview heroes to go up significantly more than the pop report of ProMotion in years to come).

Example 2:

1995 Flair Anticipation - Odds were 1:36 packs. PSA 9 sells for $450. PSA overall population is 252 with 110 PSA 9 and 72 graded higher.

vs.

1995 Flair Hot Numbers - Odds were 1:36 packs. PSA 9 sells for $1,300. PSA overall population is 456 with 207 PSA 9 and 207 graded higher.

Both cards have same odds. From same product except Series 1 vs. Series 2. Hot Numbers has nearly twice as many graded and a lot more graded higher than a PSA 9 yet the price is 2.5X the Flair Anticipation! I would have expected them to be closer in value.

I am sure there are many more examples, but those are two cards I am actively looking for and I thought it was strange. It makes it hard for me to justify buying the Hot Numbers PSA 9 given the price I paid for Anticipation.

Thoughts / Corrections / Comments all welcomed.

Thanks!

[soey10]

Good write up on the odds and pop reports.

Unfortunately cards are not that black and white.

With the specific examples you gave people place weight on visual appeal and also brand recognition. Flair Hot Numbers is an insert that had multiple sets throughout the years. Flair Anticipation is a one and done set. As far as the holoview heroes vs Promotion I think they generally look very similar the major difference would be the odds of pulling one, which speaks to why the promotion is sold at a higher price.

But then again the Promotion set for 1997 is only a 5 card set and the Holoview Heroes set is a 15 card set so even if the odds are not as high of getting one it is harder to get the specific Jordan, which makes the cards a little closer in odds of pulling one.

Also the Flair Anticipation set is a 10 card set and the Hot Numbers set is a 15 card set so the same type of formula can be applied here, the odds are very surface level in these cases.

[mc1]

20 cards in Holoview Heroes and odds of 1:75 means a Jordan is found every 1500 packs.

5 PROMotion cards and odds of 1:430 means a Jordan is found every 2150 packs.

The PROMOtion is a bit more rare, but not by 5-6x youre claiming.

Anticipation is 10 cards so 1:360 packs for a Jordan.
Flair Hot Numbers is 15 cards so 1:540 for a Jordan.

If print runs were similar for each series then theres 1.5x as many Jordan Anticipation as Hot numbers. The other factor is demand, which is clearly higher for Hot Numbers.

[GOATMJ]

Rarity does not always mean more value and desirability. While I agree the ProMotion should be valued more (and they are in high grades), the Hot Numbers was always a very popular card. Not many cards that have that 3D look other than the first year Thrill Seekers.

Many factors contribute to demand and value. The look of the card, the set, the year, etc. Hot Numbers will always be one of the most iconic 90's Jordan inserts of all time.

[thenwhatjk]

Speaking only to hot numbers vs anticipation, from release hot numbers were just massively popular, way more so than anticipation, and that was just how it is

[SoccerRCs]

This is an interesting thread! I agree with what most commentators have said here. It's not just rarity and cards are not black and white. Also, with cards that are 25 years old or more, arguing with the market about cards that are overvalued probably isn't the best bet. Once the market has moved and price trends have set in, especially for the more valuable ones, I wouldn't expect the card market to suddenly, say "Just kidding, I like this other one better." That being said, I think we see a big move in some second tier rarer Jordan inserts in the next couple years. I expect as more participants show up in the coming years, especially if Fanatics is successful in expanding the collector base like they want, that many "second tier" Jordans inserts will vault themselves into tier 1. Tier 1 will expand. My forecast for the coming years would be tier 1's continue to grow but on a percentage basis, get outpaced by tier 2 inserts. In sum: Tier 1 inserts aren't going to go in reverse but some tier 2 cards can make that jump to tier 1 over the next few years.

[Donkaylove]

This is an interesting thread. I agree with what most commentators have said here. It's not just rarity and cards are not black and white. Also, with cards that are 25 years old or more, arguing with the market about cards that are overvalued probably isn't the best bet. Once the market has moved and price trends have set in, especially for the more valuable ones, I wouldn't expect the card market to suddenly, say "Just kidding, I like this other one better." That being said, I think we see a big move in some second tier rarer Jordan inserts in the next couple years. I expect as more participants show up in the coming years, especially if Fanatics is successful in expanding the collector base like they want, that many "second tier" Jordans inserts will vault themselves into tier 1. Tier 1 will expand. My forecast for the coming years would be tier 1's continue to grow but on a percentage basis, get outpaced by tier 2 inserts. In sum: Tier 1 inserts aren't going to go in reverse but some tier 2 cards can make that jump to tier 1 over the next few years.



i have seen this many times. I am over half way through selling my jordan collection. The unknowledgable are buying up jordans in their price range. They are overpaying for some and clueless on others. I have no doubt I will sell them all, as i am just starting to sell "tier 2 stuff". I have sold a stack of finest jordans, surprisingly, more so than other cards---shiny, is my guess.

[BryceSnape]

Thanks for the responses. A couple comments:

1) Completely agree with everyone who mentioned the number of cards in a set needs to be incorporated. You are 100% right and it does help explain some of the variation.

2) I also agree that some cards are "cooler", and I think you all brought up some good points about how long a given insert set existed, visual effects, popularity at release as possible price justifications.

I still think I see value in doing this exercise on a broader set of Jordan inserts and allowing it to provide ballpark over/under valued metrics.

I also think odds are really helpful in predicting future population report metrics. For example, I love Tim Anderson. His Topps Flagship rookie card was super low pop a couple years ago and it cost >$200 for a PSA 10. It wasn't $200 because the rookie card was rare. It was $200 because so few people took the time to grade a Tim Anderson base rookie card. Over time, people saw the high prices, got the base card graded and now you can get it for $80.

I would expect a similar thing to happen on some of inserts. I know it is tough comparing across products because they do not disclose print runs, but we can likely make some logical, directional assumptions. Also, as people who grew up watching Jordan get older, I expect the top tier cards to continue to go up and maybe some premium stay premium because "that's always how it has been" but I see an opportunity looking at those cards that are more rare yet undervalued relative to other cards of similar rarity. This aligns to SoccerRCs tiering comment. IF (a big IF) Jordan cards become more of an investment class then quantifiable metrics like pack odds will be a key component of the pricing mechanism.

Any one else want to point out some cards that may be over/under valued? I'll try to add some to the thread. I think I've decided my ProMotion purchase was a good value relative to Holoview Heroes and I think I am coming around on justifying the higher price for the Hot Numbers.

Thanks All!

[BryceSnape]

I agree that price range is a pivotal factor. I find it insane that I got a Jordan PSA 7 for $5,500 when a PSA "Authentic" was going for close to $3,000. On a relative basis, I see a lot of value in the PSA 6-8 Jordan rookies. People just want to have one and they want it at the lowest cost possible which is driving up the lower grades.

Shoot me a DM or hit me up on Twitter or Instagram (@BryceSnape) on both - if you are trying to sell any PSA slabbed Jordan's. Glad to be buying even if this is the top!

[SoccerRCs]

i have seen this many times. I am over half way through selling my jordan collection. The unknowledgable are buying up jordans in their price range. They are overpaying for some and clueless on others. I have no doubt I will sell them all, as i am just starting to sell "tier 2 stuff". I have sold a stack of finest jordans, surprisingly, more so than other cards---shiny, is my guess.

Curious what you put in tier 2? Not sure we have the same ideas there. Tier 2 stuff I'm thinking like Rock Stars Refractor, Skybox Premium 3D, Triumvirate Illuminator. Good cards but have always been below the top tier of Jordan inserts. Those along with some others, I could see making a decent move as the collector base broadens. People buying basic Finest are just people desperate to get into the market and wasting their time IMO.