Card Market-current economy

[ArmyDC]

Wonder what peoples thoughts on if you feel market will go down when/if recession hits or do you think inflation creates an opportunity to invest? I tend to think Inflation could create a opportunity to buy some stable investment cards

[49erRCCollector]

Wonder what peoples thoughts on if you feel market will go down when/if recession hits or do you think inflation creates an opportunity to invest? I tend to think Inflation could create a opportunity to buy some stable investment cards

Full disclosure, I totally thought the card market would collapse during the pandemic. Instead, it went nuclear. My point - I have no idea. Take my post with a grain of salt.

I do have to wonder how the card market will fare because some of these "blue chip" "next Brady" "next Mahomes" guys are going to underwhelm. Historically we can see that. some will come out ahead but some, more... won't.

Given inflation and everything else happening - if you match it up with historical cycles, there's reason to be concerned. Cards are a luxury item.

How long until Drake isn't busting cases with Ken Goldin?

There are some cards I want in the 10K range that I'm just not sure will maintain their value. If they end up as 100K cards? I'll know I blew it. Don't think so right now, though. My 2 cents.

[blackbears86]

I can't speak for the market, but I've seen way more "sales" from the big three over the last two weeks than the last two years.


Of course the "sale" prices are still ridiculously high, but at least there seems to be some movement in box prices lately.

[Siberian13]

I can't speak for the market, but I've seen way more "sales" from the big three over the last two weeks than the last two years.


Of course the "sale" prices are still ridiculously high, but at least there seems to be some movement in box prices lately.

Raise price, then put a slash through it and lower price and say on sale. :)!

[jgb1219]

Wonder what peoples thoughts on if you feel market will go down when/if recession hits or do you think inflation creates an opportunity to invest? I tend to think Inflation could create a opportunity to buy some stable investment cards

Probably a bit of both. In other words, a recession would cause many cards to drop in value, which would then create a buying opportunity for longer-term investors. Of course, the impact would likely be different across low / medium / high end cards.

[ArmyDC]

Full disclosure, I totally thought the card market would collapse during the pandemic. Instead, it went nuclear. My point - I have no idea. Take my post with a grain of salt.

I do have to wonder how the card market will fare because some of these "blue chip" "next Brady" "next Mahomes" guys are going to underwhelm. Historically we can see that. some will come out ahead but some, more... won't.

Given inflation and everything else happening - if you match it up with historical cycles, there's reason to be concerned. Cards are a luxury item.

How long until Drake isn't busting cases with Ken Goldin?

There are some cards I want in the 10K range that I'm just not sure will maintain their value. If they end up as 100K cards? I'll know I blew it. Don't think so right now, though. My 2 cents.


Definitely thought it peaked after the last stimulus checks went out, from numbers on the grading forum I think Football may have stayed steady and not went crazy like Pokémon, Basketball and baseball. Anyways, when looking at inflation numbers I don’t think we are at the end, could see some massive rise so holding some key cards for a couple years could payoff. I’m think about holding a some of my cards I have for sale.

[Zauron]

Basketball got hit HARD IMO and I keep wondering if that will trickle down to other sports, or if basketball was just that far ahead in prices than the rest.

During the peak, Luka Prizm PSA 10's were selling for about $2k and I considered getting a silver because I liked his future. silver's, correct me if I am wrong, were about $5k or more.

Now the PSA 10's are $480, silver PSA 10's about $3k

I will say what got hit hard was base rookies, and overpriced on those. Prizm base rookies fell like a rock.

[KhalDrogo]

There are no accessible stable investment cards right now.

[49erRCCollector]

There are no accessible stable investment cards right now.

Key words. Agree.

[Siberian13]

There are no accessible stable investment cards right now.

Tom Brady?

[nabzy28]

Tom Brady?

I'm still buying. There are plenty of opportunities in all value ranges for Brady. Most seem to already be coming up off the lows of March/April, already.

[KhalDrogo]

Tom Brady?
Tom Brady what? PSA 9/10 Contenders, PSA 10 BC Refractors, ultra rare RC parallels, very low pop PSA 10 RCs, shields, high-end 1/1s are probably safe. But they don’t come up for sale often. The rest will come down further.

[Siberian13]

Tom Brady what? PSA 9/10 Contenders, PSA 10 BC Refractors, ultra rare RC parallels, very low pop PSA 10 RCs, shields, high-end 1/1s are probably safe. But they don’t come up for sale often. The rest will come down further.

Base cards of course

[tjforce]

Key words. Agree.

Tom Brady what? PSA 9/10 Contenders, PSA 10 BC Refractors, ultra rare RC parallels, very low pop PSA 10 RCs, shields, high-end 1/1s are probably safe. But they don’t come up for sale often. The rest will come down further.

One of my quotes from about a year ago that has held strong is that this is now a procurement game.

You need to know:
-How to find rare cards
-How to buy them without a 20% auction house mark up

If you are good at that there is still opportunity to make profit. If you are just buying what everyone else is buying from whoever is selling, you will probably get left behind, unless you just time it right for someone who pops like a Morant, Poole, etc.

[packman80]

I think majority of people buying were people who had extra money during covid seeing cards as an investment. Now most of those people are back working and spending money on vacations and other things so there are less people to spend on cards. So will have more cards out there then buyers and prices come down. Of course the top tier cards will always have value but the vast majoirty of prices we have seen I think are in the rearview mirror.

[49erRCCollector]

One of my quotes from about a year ago that has held strong is that this is now a procurement game.

You need to know:
-How to find rare cards
-How to buy them without a 20% auction house mark up

If you are good at that there is still opportunity to make profit. If you are just buying what everyone else is buying from whoever is selling, you will probably get left behind, unless you just time it right for someone who pops like a Morant, Poole, etc.

I won't lie. I'm terrible at this.

[tjforce]

I won't lie. I'm terrible at this.

Ehhh... are you in it for profit or to have fun collecting?

If you are in it to profit then I think it's vital.

If you are in it to have fun collecting then it's not.

I spend hours upon hours researching some of my investment buys. But if I find something shiny that I want to show off in my man cave I'll just impulse buy every once in a while (albeit at lower prices than I'm willing to pay for some of the investment stuff).

[49erRCCollector]

Ehhh... are you in it for profit or to have fun collecting?

If you are in it to profit then I think it's vital.

If you are in it to have fun collecting then it's not.

I spend hours upon hours researching some of my investment buys. But if I find something shiny that I want to show off in my man cave I'll just impulse buy every once in a while (albeit at lower prices than I'm willing to pay for some of the investment stuff).

For fun. That’s my priority. I do wish I had the skill set. I like paying for my fun out of sales, though.

But I just enjoy it.

[ArmyDC]

I think Brady’s inserts, refractors, SSP etc are a solid investment now, I’m looking more at what cards to hold. I think there will be a time that there is a buying opportunity for others if recession hits and the breakers/flippers are desperate. Also, I don’t think we are at the end of the inflation peak as investment pundits keep saying, we have not had wages increase due to inflation, the recent spikes were from Covid/Job market. I could see it go much much higher if we get into wage inflation spiral.

[Zauron]

Ehhh... are you in it for profit or to have fun collecting?

If you are in it to profit then I think it's vital.

If you are in it to have fun collecting then it's not.

I spend hours upon hours researching some of my investment buys. But if I find something shiny that I want to show off in my man cave I'll just impulse buy every once in a while (albeit at lower prices than I'm willing to pay for some of the investment stuff).

I would say, for me, about 70% collecting and 30% profit.

I basically would like to invest to fund my true PC. The price increases these past few years has made that difficult though because the entry price has increased, and I'm not looking to devote my free time to churning away a profit business.

[2010GBPackers]

Step 1: Find a cheap player you love and collect all of their best cards.

Step 2: Don't chase the "next" guy. For every Mahomes there are 20 other guys you'll take a bath on. Don't try to outsmart the market.

Step 3: Similar to step 2. If you're spending big money on a guy ($5k and up), they better have an accomplishment under their belt. I don't care how good Herbert or J. Allen is, if they have a devastating injury tomorrow, their cards are in the dollar box.

Step 4: Once a guy has solidified himself but people have moved on to the "next" guy, buy all of their best cards but keep it in the reasonable range when possible.

Step 5: If you see an inner-circle HoFer who sells cheaper than younger guys at the same position - buy.

Step 6: Super Bowls don't matter as much as people think. I know this may be controversial but I can offer up a multitude of players who have won SB's and still have no hobby love. Style of play mixed with accomplishments matter.

Step 7: Always buy the more aesthetically pleasing card. You need a good eye to do this, but it should come as no shocker that Brady's BC refractor sells for more than his SP Authentic now, or that Flawless RPA's are closing the gap on NT's.

Step 8: Just because a player is great - that's not always enough. Charisma, personality (good or bad), and the franchise they play for go a long way.

[Divino]

I switched to vintage and HOF Game Used/Autos, because I just can't deal with the craziness of the modern market.

I tried getting in on some modern, buying Juan Soto PSA 10s @275-300, just to watch them drop to $140 rapidly. Modern just doesn't do it for me anymore, and so much of it feels like a flash in the pan.

[Grid]

There are no accessible stable investment cards right now.

Yup. Certain investments are recession proof. Like Blue Chip stocks, some cards keep, or even increase, in value during a recession.

Brady, Jordan, Mantle ETC. The higher valued, and by extension rarer offerings, are typically a safe haven to park money into.

Those that can afford to play that game, don't care if gas is $5.00 a gallon or that McDonald's raised prices on their value meals. They will always have money to burn.

What gets hit, are the cards people went to when they couldn't afford to buy into the best. On a sliding scale, 2nd and 3rd tier cards of bigger players. Those were bumped up, when people were shut out during the frenzy on the better cards.

Then the latest "it" players. Hype dies down, and money goes elsewhere to the new cant miss prospect.

All the way down, to the piles of graded cards that never should have been graded. Those were propped up, when everyone and their uncle was chasing slabs just to stockpile.

[Grid]

I think majority of people buying were people who had extra money during covid seeing cards as an investment. Now most of those people are back working and spending money on vacations and other things so there are less people to spend on cards. So will have more cards out there then buyers and prices come down. Of course the top tier cards will always have value but the vast majoirty of prices we have seen I think are in the rearview mirror.

Cosigned. Americans are consumers by nature. When the casinos were closed, you still had breaks online. When you were being handed money from the Fed, and had no where else to spend it outside of blasters and ebay, it was a perfect storm.

My life played out, just as you mentioned. I worked from home, so my weekly spend was next to nothing (no lunches out at work, or gas to get there). No vacations, as the places we would go to were closed.

I paid off all my debts, and stockpiled money I would have typically spent just living life. What I could buy, was stuff I'd find online or through other collectors. My PC grew pretty fast.

Now? We went to Disney World for one of my kids birthdays a few months back. That was $5K gone in a blink. Groceries cost a lot more than they used to. We have places to go on weekends once more, which is more money spent. The disposable income is not nearly as rich for me as it was the past 2 years. And i think its safe to say that applies to much of America as well.

[clocsta2323]

Another one of these threads? What is wrong with you people? Just read one of the other 2 dozen covering the same topic, with the same posters, with the same replies, with the same thoughts, the same observations, the same predictions, the same everything.

[RedMike]

What i love about the pandemic Boom is not only the great returns I got from my earlier cards, but I love the fact we have a ton of new collectors now! Yes, a lot of people also left (because they were probably here for the wrong reasons) , but who cares. I like to focus on the new guys that came in during the boom and is here to stay. Before 2016, this hobby was pretty embarrassing and shows weren't fun at all (IMO).

Shows now have a way different vibe and I think this vibe is here to stay with the new collectors we picked up over the past 2 years (at least for a while).

I think everything is great and the correction was expected but we are going to be fine.

[TheFrenzy]

What i love about the pandemic Boom is not only the great returns I got from my earlier cards, but I love the fact we have a ton of new collectors now! Yes, a lot of people also left (because they were probably here for the wrong reasons) , but who cares. I like to focus on the new guys that came in during the boom and is here to stay. Before 2016, this hobby was pretty embarrassing and shows weren't fun at all (IMO).

Shows now have a way different vibe and I think this vibe is here to stay with the new collectors we picked up over the past 2 years (at least for a while).

I think everything is great and the correction was expected but we are going to be fine.

President Business says “Everything is Awesome.”

[packman80]

What i love about the pandemic Boom is not only the great returns I got from my earlier cards, but I love the fact we have a ton of new collectors now! Yes, a lot of people also left (because they were probably here for the wrong reasons) , but who cares. I like to focus on the new guys that came in during the boom and is here to stay. Before 2016, this hobby was pretty embarrassing and shows weren't fun at all (IMO).

Shows now have a way different vibe and I think this vibe is here to stay with the new collectors we picked up over the past 2 years (at least for a while).

I think everything is great and the correction was expected but we are going to be fine.

I disagree I think there not new collectors it's the scumbag investors who are in it not to collect but just to make a quick buck and that's the worse thing to have in the hobby. Better to have the old collectors in who were in it to collect not just see how much money you can make. If that's the only reason you buy cards you don't belong in the hobby IMO.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Wonder what peoples thoughts on if you feel market will go down when/if recession hits or do you think inflation creates an opportunity to invest? I tend to think Inflation could create a opportunity to buy some stable investment cards

I think at some point inflation has to tighten up the belt on what many are spending on cards. But with that said, the vast majority of people *think* they are going to make money from whatever they are buying. It will be interesting to see what the market does over the next 2 years.

There will definitely be opportunities that present themselves during that time - there always are.

[Hail2TheVictors]

I disagree I think there not new collectors it's the scumbag investors who are in it not to collect but just to make a quick buck and that's the worse thing to have in the hobby. Better to have the old collectors in who were in it to collect not just see how much money you can make. If that's the only reason you buy cards you don't belong in the hobby IMO.

I can understand your sentiment here, but any strong hobby will always have people who are only in it for the money.

You're right, these new additions to the hobby aren't usually "collectors" - but, hey, it's a net positive to have the younger generation (and even middle aged folks) more heavily involved. At least in my opinion.

[discodanman45]

I find it very interesting that the so called "investors" from the last few years on YouTube are turning into collectors all of the sudden. When the market is going up, I guess you are an investor making wise financial decisions. When the market is going down, you are a collector that enjoys the hobby and finances be damned. :doh:

[bamafan3559]

Step 4: Once a guy has solidified himself but people have moved on to the "next" guy, buy all of their best cards but keep it in the reasonable range when possible.


I really wish I had done this with Brees and Rodgers. Compared to where their prices were to now, easy buys.

[Cardboard Dawg]

Something something, cards should never be an investment, something something…

[2010GBPackers]

I really wish I had done this with Brees and Rodgers. Compared to where their prices were to now, easy buys.

You can add P. Manning to that list as well. And to a lesser extent, even players like Megaton, Fitzgerald, AP, Gronk, etc.

A Prizm gold base /10 for Brees, Rodgers, and Manning were going for $50. Those other guys? $20-25. If you bought any great players' best cards, you've killed it.

[nabzy28]

You can add P. Manning to that list as well. And to a lesser extent, even players like Megaton, Fitzgerald, AP, Gronk, etc.

A Prizm gold base /10 for Brees, Rodgers, and Manning were going for $50. Those other guys? $20-25. If you bought any great players' best cards, you've killed it.

I bought almost every Fitz auto I owned for less than $20-$25 a long time ago. Most were SPA and Exquisite. I noticed he wasn't signing much and had no on-card autos for a couple years. It worked out quite well. It would have worked out even better if I'd still had many of them these last 2 years, lol!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Step 1: Find a cheap player you love and collect all of their best cards.

Step 2: Don't chase the "next" guy. For every Mahomes there are 20 other guys you'll take a bath on. Don't try to outsmart the market.

Step 3: Similar to step 2. If you're spending big money on a guy ($5k and up), they better have an accomplishment under their belt. I don't care how good Herbert or J. Allen is, if they have a devastating injury tomorrow, their cards are in the dollar box.

Step 4: Once a guy has solidified himself but people have moved on to the "next" guy, buy all of their best cards but keep it in the reasonable range when possible.

Step 5: If you see an inner-circle HoFer who sells cheaper than younger guys at the same position - buy.

Step 6: Super Bowls don't matter as much as people think. I know this may be controversial but I can offer up a multitude of players who have won SB's and still have no hobby love. Style of play mixed with accomplishments matter.

Step 7: Always buy the more aesthetically pleasing card. You need a good eye to do this, but it should come as no shocker that Brady's BC refractor sells for more than his SP Authentic now, or that Flawless RPA's are closing the gap on NT's.

Step 8: Just because a player is great - that's not always enough. Charisma, personality (good or bad), and the franchise they play for go a long way.

What are you trying to say about my Brad Johnson collection?

[jdub1617]

Rule of thumb for any modern products, if it aint numbered dont buy it. Because in these modern sets if its not numbered then it's been mass mass mass produced. And it doesnt matter if it's graded, PSA 9 base RC's will be the modern era junk cards and will be the face of our 2020's bubble.

[exospheer]

High end will still have a market. Low to mid will collapse.

[nabzy28]

These guys are, basically, saying the same things. Big name GOATs, low pop, rare will hold up. Everything else, tread carefully.

I have no affiliation with any of these guys. Just happened to hit my recommended this afternoon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l05ifQ3a-tY

[exospheer]

I will be looking to pick up some high end pieces for a modern player I am collecting. Hoping the market does drop and I can get some more pieces. Super rare or extremely desirable pieces only.

[SupermanBrandon]

Rule of thumb for any modern products, if it aint numbered dont buy it. Because in these modern sets if its not numbered then it's been mass mass mass produced. And it doesnt matter if it's graded, PSA 9 base RC's will be the modern era junk cards and will be the face of our 2020's bubble.

I would add...#'d parallels that people care about. "Green Sparkle Elephant" will take a hit too! Doesnt matter that its /299 or /99. People want the traditional colors. Red, Gold, Black, Blue, etc.

[bamafan3559]

Rule of thumb for any modern products, if it aint numbered dont buy it. Because in these modern sets if its not numbered then it's been mass mass mass produced. And it doesnt matter if it's graded, PSA 9 base RC's will be the modern era junk cards and will be the face of our 2020's bubble.

I searched for a honeycomb parallel for a player I collect last night on a popular team and there was at least 20 results. For something that is a case hit, that's a lot of listings IMO since there are probably at least 75-100 or so more that are likely stashed in collections. I know the Genesis, Kaboom!, and Downtowns have been cranked up too.

[k13]

Yup. Certain investments are recession proof. Like Blue Chip stocks, some cards keep, or even increase, in value during a recession.



What blue chip stocks are recession proof?
No such thing.

[2010GBPackers]

What blue chip stocks are recession proof?
No such thing.

If everyone's losing money, but you lose it at a lesser percentage, you're actually winning. That's the comfort Blue Chip stocks offer. That's my interpretation of his post.

[EBCollectibles]

Cards are down a good bit but our country is gone.

[k13]

The reason why most cards have to be rare/low numbered to be worth anything is because that's how small this hobby is to keep a price stable.

52 Mantle is not rare at all and just junk base but price is ok right?

Young Guns are overproduced toilet paper but sell well because there's a big collector base.

No one collects prizm base sets because there's no collectors in basketball/football.

A gold prizm sells blah blah yeah shows you how small the hobby still is.

Luka prizm expansion and contraction is everyone coming and then leaving.

[Grid]

The reason why most cards have to be rare/low numbered to be worth anything is because that's how small this hobby is to keep a price stable.

52 Mantle is not rare at all and just junk base but price is ok right?

Young Guns are overproduced toilet paper but sell well because there's a big collector base.

No one collects prizm base sets because there's no collectors in basketball/football.

A gold prizm sells blah blah yeah shows you how small the hobby still is.

Luka prizm expansion and contraction is everyone coming and then leaving.

1952 Mantle, as an example, is rare. 70 years ago, no one was doing what we do now with cards. Base card, sure, but so was every card made back then.

Enter grading, and a card goes from somewhat common, to incredibly rare.

Take your Mantle as an example. So many were pasted into scrap books, used in the spokes on kids bikes or tossed away by their Moms when they left home.

PSA has graded about 1800 total copies since they started offering slabs. If you wanted one, only 3 dozen people per state in the US could own one. Thats rare. And not all of them are willing to offer theirs up for sale.

Say you wanted a "good" one. Only 35 are slabbed as 8. Only 6 as 9 and just 3 as a 10. Making an already rare card, even rarer.

Take the same example, and apply to modern cards. And grading can make a common card, suddenly rare to find in the best examples.

[JanuaryRains]

Re: OP, sold or am selling anything I don't want to own forever. Buy within your means, don't overextend or buy on leverage. It's the people who are doing that that'll get slammed if/when the market takes a steeper dive this year. Think that's true of any market though, not just cards.

I'm happy if prices go down because my cash goes further and I'm happy if prices stay steady or grow because my collection is worth more.

[Grid]

Re: OP, sold or am selling anything I don't want to own forever. Buy within your means, don't overextend or buy on leverage. It's the people who are doing that that'll get slammed if/when the market takes a steeper dive this year. Think that's true of any market though, not just cards.

I'm happy if prices go down because my cash goes further and I'm happy if prices stay steady or grow because my collection is worth more.

Yup, just like with everything else.

Right now, there are not enough new homes being built to supply the market. Blame COVID, the shut downs and the ensuing supply chain issues. It was the perfect storm.

If you want to buy a house, you have to pay more than its worth. Its a sellers market.

Flash forward a few years from now, and everyone that overpaid to buy a house, is suddenly stuck with a house that isnt worth what they owe.

Just like in 2008, people start walking away, and the house of cards falls. When it comes to sports cards, people will start to dump assets sooner or later. Once the market saturates, and all these new buyers leave. It will be the same thing, and it will bring down values on all of us.

Neither example is growth. Its a bubble.

[k13]

1952 Mantle, as an example, is rare. 70 years ago, no one was doing what we do now with cards. Base card, sure, but so was every card made back then.

Enter grading, and a card goes from somewhat common, to incredibly rare.

Take your Mantle as an example. So many were pasted into scrap books, used in the spokes on kids bikes or tossed away by their Moms when they left home.

PSA has graded about 1800 total copies since they started offering slabs. If you wanted one, only 3 dozen people per state in the US could own one. Thats rare. And not all of them are willing to offer theirs up for sale.

Say you wanted a "good" one. Only 35 are slabbed as 8. Only 6 as 9 and just 3 as a 10. Making an already rare card, even rarer.

Take the same example, and apply to modern cards. And grading can make a common card, suddenly rare to find in the best examples.

No one would say 1800 is rare would they?
Only rare if there's demand that exceeds supply...

[rocnydeals]

Sales of the Michael Jordan PSA 10 Fleer rookie are remaining stable: https://www.instagram.com/p/CdxzxC7JFvp/

GOATs are going to be fine.

[discodanman45]

No one would say 1800 is rare would they?
Only rare if there's demand that exceeds supply...

I don't think people realize how small this hobby is. Most people probably think there are millions of collectors and that is not true. 1800 would be extremely rare if 1 million people per state were cardboard collectors.

Just like the collapse of sports cards NFT's, people only got involved to make money. Once you can't make money, they leave for another opportunity to rip off people.

[hxcmilkshake]

Just put every penny into Platinum Card breakels, you'll be fine

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

[discodanman45]

Sales of the Michael Jordan PSA 10 Fleer rookie are remaining stable: https://www.instagram.com/p/CdxzxC7JFvp/

GOATs are going to be fine.

People are trying to keep the PSA 10 Jordan's afloat to protect their investments. If you think GOAT's are fine, you have been listening to too much Sports Card Investor. If you watch some people that put big money into the game, you can see from their interviews that they are scared as hell. We still have a lot of market correction left.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52087044024_7c1f1c3d85.jpg

[SupermanBrandon]

PWCC premiere was destroyed last night. Goldin will be massacred this weekend. Kenny will be performing some extra tricks over the next few days to pump his auctions.

[Grid]

No one would say 1800 is rare would they?
Only rare if there's demand that exceeds supply...

Look at my example you quoted. "If you wanted one, only 3 dozen people per state in the US could own one"

There are 330MIL people in the US. Obviously not all of them care about a 1952 Mantle. But 1800 still breaks down to 3 dozen copies in a PSA slab, per state.

That's rare. And surely more than 1800 people in the hobby would want one. I don't collect baseball cards, but I'd want one. But you don't need demand for something to be rare. But you do need demand for something to be valuable.

[Grid]

I don't think people realize how small this hobby is. Most people probably think there are millions of collectors and that is not true. 1800 would be extremely rare if 1 million people per state were cardboard collectors.

Just like the collapse of sports cards NFT's, people only got involved to make money. Once you can't make money, they leave for another opportunity to rip off people.

Yup. And that is why everyone is freaking out about what will happen when all these new "collectors" leave. And leave they will. Nothing stays the "it" thing for very long these days.

The 2019 National card show had 50,000 people attend. That is a lot of folks from the hobby. And everyone would agree, just a small portion of the hobby actually will travel to the big show.

The 2021 show had 100,000 people. Twice as many.

But look at the last big hobby pump in the late 80s. IE, the Junk Wax era where every company that could make cards, did make cards. And those presses ran nonstop.

In 1991, you had almost 100,000 people attend that National. And it didn't take long for the hobby to deflate, once CNN wasn't running segments on baseball cards as an investment, or when people realized just how much product was out there.

By the end of the decade, the 1999 National drew fewer than 25,000.

[49erRCCollector]

Look at my example you quoted. "If you wanted one, only 3 dozen people per state in the US could own one"

There are 330MIL people in the US. Obviously not all of them care about a 1952 Mantle. But 1800 still breaks down to 3 dozen copies in a PSA slab, per state.

That's rare. And surely more than 1800 people in the hobby would want one. I don't collect baseball cards, but I'd want one. But you don't need demand for something to be rare. But you do need demand for something to be valuable.

Beat me to it.

[boxbuster7]

Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful

[k13]

I don't think people realize how small this hobby is. Most people probably think there are millions of collectors and that is not true. 1800 would be extremely rare if 1 million people per state were cardboard collectors.

Just like the collapse of sports cards NFT's, people only got involved to make money. Once you can't make money, they leave for another opportunity to rip off people.

Exactly.

30k pop is huge but that's only 0.0001% of the population in US let alone the world.

[k13]

If everyone's losing money, but you lose it at a lesser percentage, you're actually winning. That's the comfort Blue Chip stocks offer. That's my interpretation of his post.

Rather have cash than stocks that lose less than others.
But that's just me.

Cash will soon be valuable again.

[discodanman45]

Yup. And that is why everyone is freaking out about what will happen when all these new "collectors" leave. And leave they will. Nothing stays the "it" thing for very long these days.

My prediction is things won't ever get back to 2019 levels, but I think we will eventually get back to 2020 levels. A PSA 9 Jordan rookie probably won't go back to $4000, but it wouldn't surprise me if it fell to $10,000 to $15,000 and then stabilized. The YouTube money is a big deal and won't allow cards to go back to pre-COVID levels. Content creators need content and this will help the market.

One thing I absolutely hate is breakers. Get the money out of these scumbag's hands. I know I am generalizing here and there are many reputable breakers, but the nonsense is bad for the hobby. Get the product into the hands of kids and you will see more collectors. When I was a kid, you were a dork if you collected cards. That same stigma is not there. I must be in bizarro land, because I see Logan Paul hanging out and texting with overweight Pokemon collectors. Those same Pokemon collectors when I was young would have been beaten up by the same jocks.

I think some things like vintage will continue to stay about the same, but that is it. I am not talking about 1970's stuff. I am talking from 50's and below. It doesn't take much to keep that product the same price with the low supply. Can't wait until I can get a Nolan Ryan rookie at a good price. Supply on that is much higher than people realize.

[imbluestreak23]

My prediction is things won't ever get back to 2019 levels, but I think we will eventually get back to 2020 levels. A PSA 9 Jordan rookie probably won't go back to $4000, but it wouldn't surprise me if it fell to $10,000 to $15,000 and then stabilized. The YouTube money is a big deal and won't allow cards to go back to pre-COVID levels. Content creators need content and this will help the market.

One thing I absolutely hate is breakers. Get the money out of these scumbag's hands. I know I am generalizing here and there are many reputable breakers, but the nonsense is bad for the hobby. Get the product into the hands of kids and you will see more collectors. When I was a kid, you were a dork if you collected cards. That same stigma is not there. I must be in bizarro land, because I see Logan Paul hanging out and texting with overweight Pokemon collectors. Those same Pokemon collectors when I was young would have been beaten up by the same jocks.

I think some things like vintage will continue to stay about the same, but that is it. I am not talking about 1970's stuff. I am talking from 50's and below. It doesn't take much to keep that product the same price with the low supply. Can't wait until I can get a Nolan Ryan rookie at a good price. Supply on that is much higher than people realize.

Unfortunately Josh wants more breakers.

1) Advertising
2) Guarantees high price/demand for wax as the lottery style system attracts gamblers.

Point #2 is the most critical. Wax is literally expensive because gambling has driven the EV of wax down exponentially. Getting rid of breakers is not in the best interest of Fanatics as that all but guarantees a slashing of wax prices. Breakers are the biggest driving force for keeping wax high. And it sucks.

[imbluestreak23]

PWCC premiere was destroyed last night. Goldin will be massacred this weekend. Kenny will be performing some extra tricks over the next few days to pump his auctions.

Yup, the things I was watching, it wasn't pretty.

[discodanman45]

Unfortunately Josh wants more breakers.

1) Advertising
2) Guarantees high price/demand for wax as the lottery style system attracts gamblers.

Point #2 is the most critical. Wax is literally expensive because gambling has driven the EV of wax down exponentially. Getting rid of breakers is not in the best interest of Fanatics as that all but guarantees a slashing of wax prices. Breakers are the biggest driving force for keeping wax high. And it sucks.

Yup, that is why they hobby will die. Fanatics will go down swinging though. To try to keep their investment alive, they will start throwing other things into packs of cards. Fanatics merch, tickets to games, etc... I have a feeling that they will even make cards pulled have value like NFT's. Grade your cards with CSG and have the best registry of Luka and win a Luka autograph. The hobby will get very, very strange the next few years.

[k13]

Yup, the things I was watching, it wasn't pretty.

Examples?

[ArmyDC]

Rather have cash than stocks that lose less than others.
But that's just me.

Cash will soon be valuable again.

If inflation keeps up at this pace then cash is probably the last place you want to invest. If you time it right there will be some legitimate investment opportunities this time next year when people are desperate

[ArmyDC]

My prediction is things won't ever get back to 2019 levels, but I think we will eventually get back to 2020 levels. A PSA 9 Jordan rookie probably won't go back to $4000, but it wouldn't surprise me if it fell to $10,000 to $15,000 and then stabilized. The YouTube money is a big deal and won't allow cards to go back to pre-COVID levels. Content creators need content and this will help the market.

One thing I absolutely hate is breakers. Get the money out of these scumbag's hands. I know I am generalizing here and there are many reputable breakers, but the nonsense is bad for the hobby. Get the product into the hands of kids and you will see more collectors. When I was a kid, you were a dork if you collected cards. That same stigma is not there. I must be in bizarro land, because I see Logan Paul hanging out and texting with overweight Pokemon collectors. Those same Pokemon collectors when I was young would have been beaten up by the same jocks.

I think some things like vintage will continue to stay about the same, but that is it. I am not talking about 1970's stuff. I am talking from 50's and below. It doesn't take much to keep that product the same price with the low supply. Can't wait until I can get a Nolan Ryan rookie at a good price. Supply on that is much higher than people realize.



The good thing with breakers is you usually can pick up some decent singles right after a product comes out. I have been snatching up Brady serial number hobby only parallels

[k13]

If inflation keeps up at this pace then cash is probably the last place you want to invest. If you time it right there will be some legitimate investment opportunities this time next year when people are desperate

You need cash to buy those opportunities.

100k will buy you a lot more investments in the future if you believe there's a crash regardless of inflation because inflation is not raising cards/stocks right now is it?

[jjcan]

If inflation keeps up at this pace then cash is probably the last place you want to invest. If you time it right there will be some legitimate investment opportunities this time next year when people are desperate

Cash??? Blah, I went to Costco and hoarded!!

I bought toilet paper and Bottled water....I am making a killing...See how high this stuff is going up!!!

No how do I get these gains realized??

[imbluestreak23]

Examples?

Patty Cakes were all down sadly

[Grid]

I'm just saying, so much in this hobby is a hot potato right now.

So many cards went up in value, beyond expected levels, due to FOMO. So many people bought in to flip, and so many others had the same idea. That is what pushed prices up on everything.

It wasn't simple supply and demand driving prices, it was an artificial market lead by pump and dump pimps.

Not saying cards will be worth nothing, this isn't like junk bonds or Dot Com start up companies. But when those doing the pumping move on, the true values will once more be realized by those who still (mostly) treat this as a hobby.

IE, that mojo disco refractor SSP parallel Mahomes that was once $250 3 years ago, but was pumped to $1K last year, will just return to the expected $250 (barring performance) as those looking to buy, hold and collect his stuff will once more be the driving force behind his values. And not just a series of flips forcing the values beyond that.

We are already seeing some correcting. And no reason to think you wont see more of that.

[rocnydeals]

If inflation keeps up at this pace then cash is probably the last place you want to invest. If you time it right there will be some legitimate investment opportunities this time next year when people are desperate

This. Trading cards and other non-traditional assets (like art) could potentially be a hedge against inflation.

[k13]

Sp authentic auto rookies in hockey have not come down at all besides performance reasons.

Even ok players are 10x 2019 prices.

[imbluestreak23]

Sp authentic auto rookies in hockey have not come down at all besides performance reasons.

Even ok players are 10x 2019 prices.

Bowman Chrome baseball is thriving

[exospheer]

I understand its the market and everything, but how in the world does Burrow outsell Josh Allen by 2x? NT RPA on pwcc premier yesterday for both and burrow outsells Allen

[blackbears86]

Yup, the things I was watching, it wasn't pretty.



Can you be specific blue? I totally missed the auction.



Was everything down across the board? How did Patty and Luka do?



edit: saw your comment on Patty.

[exospheer]

I'm just saying, so much in this hobby is a hot potato right now.

So many cards went up in value, beyond expected levels, due to FOMO. So many people bought in to flip, and so many others had the same idea. That is what pushed prices up on everything.

It wasn't simple supply and demand driving prices, it was an artificial market lead by pump and dump pimps.

Not saying cards will be worth nothing, this isn't like junk bonds or Dot Com start up companies. But when those doing the pumping move on, the true values will once more be realized by those who still (mostly) treat this as a hobby.

IE, that mojo disco refractor SSP parallel Mahomes that was once $250 3 years ago, but was pumped to $1K last year, will just return to the expected $250 (barring performance) as those looking to buy, hold and collect his stuff will once more be the driving force behind his values. And not just a series of flips forcing the values beyond that.

We are already seeing some correcting. And no reason to think you wont see more of that.

Think anything that isn't /10 or better, cracked ice, or NT RPAs will be having issues. Its the low to mid end collectors that are not buying anymore

[imbluestreak23]

Can you be specific blue? I totally missed the auction.



Was everything down across the board? How did Patty and Luka do?



edit: saw your comment on Patty.

So I wasn’t following a ton of stuff, but Mahomes Prizm autos all were way way down. I don’t track the NT/Flawless prices, those may have been stronger despite the patches on the 9 and 9.5 being weak.

On the flip side, BC high end color did well. They maintained if not increase over previous sales. Most I would say maintained. So my previous comment wasn’t 100% accurate as things did perform better.

Juan Soto orange and gold BGS 9.5s did great for example.

The Ohtani BGS 9.5 did ~okay. The value certainly didn’t crash but it’s not performing at the PSA 10/10 levels we’ve seen (which is impossible to compare).

Steph Curry NT RPA was way down from previous valuations (someone correct me if I’m wrong) and he’s on the cusp of literally getting his 4th ring with one team and threatening Lebrons hobby thrown. That was supposed to be one of the safest cards in modern basketball

Curry TC refractor BGS 9.5 down nearly 50% from January

Luka Prizm Orange 10 down 50% from Jan

Brad BC Ref BGS 9 down 30% in 6 months.

Some cards seem to be performing well but there is no rhyme or reason to it. Just depends on if a whale is looking for it

[k13]

Think anything that isn't /10 or better, cracked ice, or NT RPAs will be having issues. Its the low to mid end collectors that are not buying anymore

Collectors are still buying.
Investors/flippers are not.

[Grid]

I understand its the market and everything, but how in the world does Burrow outsell Josh Allen by 2x? NT RPA on pwcc premier yesterday for both and burrow outsells Allen

How many AFC Championship games has Allen won? How many Super Bowls has he appeared in?

It is always the hot hand for QBs each season. Right now, Burrow has the hot hand.

I like Allen, don't get me wrong. But Burrow is living up to the hype. He broke all kinds of rookie records before his knee got tore up.

Came back the next season, won Come Back Player of the year, lead the league in completion percentage and went on a tear in the post season. He literally took the worse team in the league and lead them to the Super Bowl.

Allen came in as the 3rd QB taken. And while his collegiate career was good, he was never labeled the next big thing.

Burrow came in with a pedigree second to none. And actually lived up to the hype.

CFP National Champion (2019)
CFP National Championship Offensive MVP (2019)
Heisman Trophy (2019)
Maxwell Award (2019)
Walter Camp Award (2019)
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (2019)
Davey O'Brien Award (2019)
Manning Award (2019)
Lombardi Award (2019)
AP College Football Player of the Year (2019)
Sporting News College Football Player of the Year (2019)
2019 Peach Bowl Offensive MVP
2019 Fiesta Bowl Offensive MVP
Unanimous All-American (2019)
SEC Offensive Player of the Year (2019)
First-team All-SEC (2019)

Plus...

https://footwearnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-burrow-outfit-feature.jpg?w=400

[Zauron]

Honestly, I'm curious how 2021 Prizm sells for basketball and football in today's economy.

I have a hard time believing this should be reselling at a high premium on the secondary market, but we shall see.

[imbluestreak23]

The worst thing that could happen for new wax is for it to hit the market with horrible QC.

Grading, which is becoming increasingly more speculative, does prop up raw card values. But if a product comes out with poor QC, buyers like me just tune it out and look towards the next one. Huge blow to the raw card market.

Problem is Poopini is a lame duck and quality cardboard, especially the shiny type seems to be scarce

[blackbears86]

So I wasn’t following a ton of stuff, but Mahomes Prizm autos all were way way down. I don’t track the NT/Flawless prices, those may have been stronger despite the patches on the 9 and 9.5 being weak.

On the flip side, BC high end color did well. They maintained if not increase over previous sales. Most I would say maintained. So my previous comment wasn’t 100% accurate as things did perform better.

Juan Soto orange and gold BGS 9.5s did great for example.

The Ohtani BGS 9.5 did ~okay. The value certainly didn’t crash but it’s not performing at the PSA 10/10 levels we’ve seen (which is impossible to compare).

Steph Curry NT RPA was way down from previous valuations (someone correct me if I’m wrong) and he’s on the cusp of literally getting his 4th ring with one team and threatening Lebrons hobby thrown. That was supposed to be one of the safest cards in modern basketball

Curry TC refractor BGS 9.5 down nearly 50% from January

Luka Prizm Orange 10 down 50% from Jan

Brad BC Ref BGS 9 down 30% in 6 months.

Some cards seem to be performing well but there is no rhyme or reason to it. Just depends on if a whale is looking for it







Thanks for the update.



I'm really curious to see what prices are going to be like at the National.

[SupermanBrandon]

Thanks for the update.

I'm really curious to see what prices are going to be like at the National.

Lower than today's numbers! Cards could be a complete disaster at this rate by the time the National comes around. Super High End Football & Baseball should be doing well at that time. Anything else, will probably be down from today's prices, imo.

[BeastMode27]

So I wasn’t following a ton of stuff, but

Steph Curry NT RPA was way down from previous valuations (someone correct me if I’m wrong) and he’s on the cusp of literally getting his 4th ring with one team and threatening Lebrons hobby thrown. That was supposed to be one of the safest cards in modern basketball

Some cards seem to be performing well but there is no rhyme or reason to it. Just depends on if a whale is looking for it

Curry had a 9 auto and didn’t look great going into the patch. I don’t know how many people are paying huge money for that. I sure wouldn’t

[imbluestreak23]

Curry had a 9 auto and didn’t look great going into the patch. I don’t know how many people are paying huge money for that. I sure wouldn’t

Yup that's a good call out. I noticed that after the fact. Probably valued appropriately.

[tjforce]

Curry had a 9 auto and didn’t look great going into the patch. I don’t know how many people are paying huge money for that. I sure wouldn’t

This needs to be repeated...

I've seen multiple reports of this card as a terrible drop off, but the auto was a bad 9. That's a big deal on a card this expensive.

[starfox]

The worst thing that could happen for new wax is for it to hit the market with horrible QC.

Grading, which is becoming increasingly more speculative, does prop up raw card values. But if a product comes out with poor QC, buyers like me just tune it out and look towards the next one. Huge blow to the raw card market.

Problem is Poopini is a lame duck and quality cardboard, especially the shiny type seems to be scarceYes. Finally getting down to the heart of the matter.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[k13]

The worst thing that could happen for new wax is for it to hit the market with horrible QC.

Grading, which is becoming increasingly more speculative, does prop up raw card values. But if a product comes out with poor QC, buyers like me just tune it out and look towards the next one. Huge blow to the raw card market.

Problem is Poopini is a lame duck and quality cardboard, especially the shiny type seems to be scarce

Makes no difference and you make no difference.
Only hype matters.
Market is dead and base is dead so it makes no difference if every card is a psa 10 out of the box.
That actually makes it worse.

Part of 19-20 prizm hype train was that it was "tough" to grade and people started paying premiums for 10s.

Prizm is all junk now with a million in one chance at a /25

You graders haven't figured out there's better products for rip and flip where wax sells cheap but base sells high.

[rogueriver]

I know the market on a ton of stuff is crashing, but my 2 main PC guys rare cards have not. MJ rare cards are doing good and Griffey cards are still on fire. Not so rare cards have come down, but they are still WAY WAY higher than in 2019....

[matt roberson]

Patty Cakes were all down sadly

Is there any other way they could have gone? He didn't win the last two superbowls, which seemed baked into his prices already... So he's "under performing" and just lot one of his best targets so I feel like the market expects continued regression.

I understand its the market and everything, but how in the world does Burrow outsell Josh Allen by 2x? NT RPA on pwcc premier yesterday for both and burrow outsells Allen

Well Burrow just went to the SB and has played great since coming into the league with a good amount of hype. Allen never had that much hype and failed to make it to the SB yet again (not his fault, he played amazing during his elimination game, one of the best games I've ever watched!)

[imbluestreak23]

Makes no difference and you make no difference.
Only hype matters.
Market is dead and base is dead so it makes no difference if every card is a psa 10 out of the box.
That actually makes it worse.

Part of 19-20 prizm hype train was that it was "tough" to grade and people started paying premiums for 10s.

Prizm is all junk now with a million in one chance at a /25

You graders haven't figured out there's better products for rip and flip where wax sells cheap but base sells high.

You don't know how things work

[hermanotarjeta]

Are group breaks still hard to get into at current prices? Or do you see less and less interest?

[SevenRings]

Are group breaks still hard to get into at current prices? Or do you see less and less interest?

8 months later, but could anyone offer any updated insight to the original question? Back in the card game, but I've been out since way before covid. I've been doing a lot of pre/post covid research and usually can make deliberations for myself, but covid is throwing me for a loop. Do you see a further decline happening? Football/basketball specifically...It seems to me like prices are pretty balanced from what they were a year or two before covid outside of rookies (I only buy singles, I know $3-$5 packs are a thing of the past,) but there are anomalies, as is the case for anything, but those have me a little worried to start collecting right now.

[mfw13]

Well....box prices are passing through ridiculous on the way to absurd.

Spectra is releasing at $800+ a box.....for 16 cards.....i.e. $50 per card.

Even with four of those cards being autos, that's still crazy....only people buying wax right now are breakers/gamblers.

[Grid]

8 months later, but could anyone offer any updated insight to the original question? Back in the card game, but I've been out since way before covid. I've been doing a lot of pre/post covid research and usually can make deliberations for myself, but covid is throwing me for a loop. Do you see a further decline happening? Football/basketball specifically...It seems to me like prices are pretty balanced from what they were a year or two before covid outside of rookies (I only buy singles, I know $3-$5 packs are a thing of the past,) but there are anomalies, as is the case for anything, but those have me a little worried to start collecting right now.

My post above yours, from May of last year, still holds true.

Originally Posted by Grid View Post
I'm just saying, so much in this hobby is a hot potato right now.

So many cards went up in value, beyond expected levels, due to FOMO. So many people bought in to flip, and so many others had the same idea. That is what pushed prices up on everything.

It wasn't simple supply and demand driving prices, it was an artificial market lead by pump and dump pimps.

Not saying cards will be worth nothing, this isn't like junk bonds or Dot Com start up companies. But when those doing the pumping move on, the true values will once more be realized by those who still (mostly) treat this as a hobby.

IE, that mojo disco refractor SSP parallel Mahomes that was once $250 3 years ago, but was pumped to $1K last year, will just return to the expected $250 (barring performance) as those looking to buy, hold and collect his stuff will once more be the driving force behind his values. And not just a series of flips forcing the values beyond that.

We are already seeing some correcting. And no reason to think you wont see more of that.

Wax is still overpriced, as so much is bought by group breakers. That spreads the hit out to everyone that joins. But even that has some issues now, as so many of those buying into breakers, are just bleeding money when they go to sell what they hit. But people like to gamble, so we arent out of the woods yet.

But personal breaks have come way, way down. No one is raiding Target/Walmart for retail to flip on the open market any more. Blasters are easy to find, and you dont have to pay scalpers prices on them.

The more hobby influencers move on to the next shiny thing, the more things will get back to "normal".