HOF players rip into Manfred re: state of game

[pewe]

https://mailchi.mp/rodcarew/2022-weeklysend-29?e=e68036346f

https://theathletic.com/3539812/2022/08/26/mlb-carew-manfred-rules-analytics/

Key discussion points: 1) over use of analytics and it’s application in over focus on swing for the fences, use of shift, players not making game time decisions for themselves; 2) making the game silly and “like a company softball team” like extra runner in extra innings, three batter minimum, and use of a 4th outfielder

Some “get off my lawn” stuff and some cultural reflection of the current angst.


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[rngrdanny22]

For #1, I don't know how you'd get away from it now that it's knowledge. Pretend it doesn't exist?

For #2, completely agree. The extra runner thing is completely stupid and one step away from a mercy rule.

[BigSlim16]

For #1, I don't know how you'd get away from it now that it's knowledge. Pretend it doesn't exist?

Aren’t analytics and defensive positioning basically just fancy terms for scouting reports too, which have been used in baseball for decades?

[oldgoldy97]

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BMTc4NzY5NTMwNF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwNDA3NzM3._V1_.jpg

[theshowandme]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/4a96b61b7214a34e7e3a522abfc0d5fc.jpg

[rats60]

Just state the obvious. The emperor has no clothes. Today's players are far less skilled than previous generations. There is an overemphasis on what is generally best to do and no overall development of skills. Baseball is a situational game. It isn't always best for a batter to either walk or hit a home run. Players are no longer trying to win games, they are trying to maximize their "analytics" to secure maximum pay.

[pewe]

For #1, I don't know how you'd get away from it now that it's knowledge. Pretend it doesn't exist?


Ya - that is kind of the point. And also silly, because analytics have been part of the game for 100+ years. It’s not like AVG, SLG, and OBP were just a fun fan stat.


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[coachnip13]

I think their point has more to do with the overreliance on analytics, not just the use of information. It’s one thing to have a scouting report on a guy. It’s another to let a computer dictate every decision made in a game.

[base set]

For #1, I don't know how you'd get away from it now that it's knowledge. Pretend it doesn't exist?

For #2, completely agree. The extra runner thing is completely stupid and one step away from a mercy rule.

There are grumblings now about trying to find a way out of using position players to pitch in a lopsided game, which seems to be increasing.

[coachnip13]

“They're learning all about exit velocity and launch angle, but they don't understand the nuances of the game, the things that make a difference between winning and losing.“

This times 10,000. Go watch a perfect game event. No one is trying to win a game and no one is teaching kids how to play the game. Everyone is out there trying to impress scouts with their individual skills.

[soicanbefree]

There are grumblings now about trying to find a way out of using position players to pitch in a lopsided game, which seems to be increasing.

Why? Saves resources for games that matter and is entertaining for fans.

Seems silly.

[k13]

The players suck and are lazy and get paid too much.

[Lonewolf]

I think their point has more to do with the overreliance on analytics, not just the use of information. It’s one thing to have a scouting report on a guy. It’s another to let a computer dictate every decision made in a game.

Bingo

[rngrdanny22]

I think their point has more to do with the overreliance on analytics, not just the use of information. It’s one thing to have a scouting report on a guy. It’s another to let a computer dictate every decision made in a game.

An example of this would be pinch-hitting for someone late that's already gotten 3 hits in a game for someone to try and get a righty/lefty matchup (I'm thinking Pujols here from last week).

I get that analytics may say that the righty/lefty matchup is preferred, but how do analytics account for non-quantitative factors like, well, the guy you're pinch hitting for is on FIRE and has THREE HITS already. Also, the guy coming off the bench is cold.

[coachnip13]

An example of this would be pinch-hitting for someone late that's already gotten 3 hits in a game for someone to try and get a righty/lefty matchup (I'm thinking Pujols here from last week).

I get that analytics may say that the righty/lefty matchup is preferred, but how do analytics account for non-quantitative factors like, well, the guy you're pinch hitting for is on FIRE and has THREE HITS already. Also, the guy coming off the bench is cold.

Blake Snell agrees.

[mfw13]

Bingo

Or pulling starting pitchers too soon when they've been pitching well just because your computer says that they've reached their pitch limit and/or because you can't let them go though the batting order a third/fourth time.

[wood minis]

I've been having fun watching baseball this year.

The Yankees trading Montgomery to St. Louis where he wins a 1-0 one hit complete game shutout with the lone run coming from a Pujols home run.

or how about last night? The Orioles are up 2-0 in the ninth with two outs and Trey Mancini up to bat as the potential winning run.

Say what you will, baseball has its moments.

[Stifle]

Just state the obvious. The emperor has no clothes. Today's players are far less skilled than previous generations. There is an overemphasis on what is generally best to do and no overall development of skills. Baseball is a situational game. It isn't always best for a batter to either walk or hit a home run. Players are no longer trying to win games, they are trying to maximize their "analytics" to secure maximum pay.

All situations are equal in WAR and baseball is played analytically. Kind of self defeating when those who realize that the situation of a game is constantly changing but the play of the game is now controlled by a constant.

[badkarma318]

I think their point has more to do with the overreliance on analytics, not just the use of information. It’s one thing to have a scouting report on a guy. It’s another to let a computer dictate every decision made in a game.

Kapler has entered the chat . . .

[johnlocke36]

Just state the obvious. The emperor has no clothes. Today's players are far less skilled than previous generations. There is an overemphasis on what is generally best to do and no overall development of skills. Baseball is a situational game. It isn't always best for a batter to either walk or hit a home run. Players are no longer trying to win games, they are trying to maximize their "analytics" to secure maximum pay.

Its the exact opposite. Today's players are far more skilled than previous generations. Today's players are still trying to win games, they just have a better idea of what the optimal approach to trying to win that game is.

The reason batters are taking the walk or homer approach isn't because they want to get paid (sure they do) but because that's what will win the more games (teams pay the most for homers and walk because homers and walks win games)

Pitcher are to good, as a result stringing togther hits to score a run is to hard. Giving up an out to advance a runner is often stupid because again, pitcher ar to good and runner will get stranded to often. Better use that out as an attempt at a home run. Whether or not this is fun, or ruining the game is debatable, but its the truth of whats happening

[babybull]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/4a96b61b7214a34e7e3a522abfc0d5fc.jpg

"They shifted against Ted Williams and he hit .406"

--Ryne Sandberg

[pewe]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/4a96b61b7214a34e7e3a522abfc0d5fc.jpg


Looks like the alignment Toronto used against Devers on Thursday… with the exception of 3B that they left to the left of 2B… what did Devers do? At the first pitch: made an easy non-power swing, angling his bat through the zone placing the ball to the right of 2B for an easy hit.


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[Myerburg311]

“They're learning all about exit velocity and launch angle, but they don't understand the nuances of the game, the things that make a difference between winning and losing.“

This times 10,000. Go watch a perfect game event. No one is trying to win a game and no one is teaching kids how to play the game. Everyone is out there trying to impress scouts with their individual skills.

at an event for kids to impress scouts with their individual skills?! Oh my heavens, whatever will we do?

[oplum29]

today's players aren't your dad's players, it's sad sometimes.

i still remember when Jose Reyes got a hit on the final game, then sat out after, ensuring he won the batting title.

then i read about Ted Williams going into the final game, hitting .39989 or something like that, and he was adamant that he wanted .400, not .399989 which rounded up to .400

Teddy Ballgame went out and went i believe 4 for 6 and finished the 1941 season with a .406 BA

that's a ballplayer right there.

when you see what Hank Aaron went through in breaking the Babe's HR record, the death threats that he got, and knowing that Barry Bonds cheated to break his record, i don't get how that doesn't bother people.

it's just a different game, time, and generation now. the Yankees should have never left Yankee Stadium for their new garbage stadium. players nowadays will never know what it was like to have played in the same stadium that Mantle, DiMaggio, Gehrig, or the Babe played.

The Cubs adding that horrible scoreboard in the outfield, killing the view of the houses and the gated chain-link fence...

i'm just ranting now

[bblair_2002]

I can't stand sabermetrics,the shift and placing a runner on 2nd in extra innings. Mr. Carew is right.

[ucLAkers]

He’s just a pawn…..owners move the strings.

[oplum29]

I can't stand sabermetrics,the shift and placing a runner on 2nd in extra innings. Mr. Carew is right.

i don't like the runner on 2nd in extras, i like sabermeterics, but not so much as a tool to measure all baseball players, like WAR. i miss the good ol' fashion stats. i also miss the DH

[pete2345]

The players now really are not very good. Not one true superstar in the entire sport.

[oplum29]

The players now really are not very good. Not one true superstar in the entire sport.

there's plenty of superstars in the league, but baseball just doesn't have the luster that it used to have back in the day.

even as a kid, i remember how big of a deal Jose Canseco was in pop culture. we don't have anybody like that anymore. i really think ARod and Jeter might have been the last two players to cross over like that.

[bblair_2002]

i don't like the runner on 2nd in extras, i like sabermeterics, but not so much as a tool to measure all baseball players, like WAR. i miss the good ol' fashion stats. i also miss the DH

There are many intangibles that can't be measured by sabermetrics like hustle and attitude. I kinda miss the Game Winning RBI stat,but now that walk-offs are a thing these days,they may bring that stat back.

[pewe]

There are many intangibles that can't be measured by sabermetrics like hustle and attitude.

Are you saying that their benefit doesn’t show up in the players results as measured by inputs to Sabermetric counting stats like WAR or clutch or wRC+?

Were they measured before, and sabermetrics somehow now ignores them?


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[pewe]

there's plenty of superstars in the league, but baseball just doesn't have the luster that it used to have back in the day.

even as a kid, i remember how big of a deal Jose Canseco was in pop culture. we don't have anybody like that anymore. i really think ARod and Jeter might have been the last two players to cross over like that.


If endorsements are a good measure of pop culture penetration: Ohtani in 2022 is getting more than 2x the endorsement income vs. what the likes of Jeter got at his peak… https://www.mlb.com/news/ohtani-endorsement-deals-increase-in-2022


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[jplarson]

This times 10,000. Go watch a perfect game event. No one is trying to win a game and no one is teaching kids how to play the game. Everyone is out there trying to impress scouts with their individual skills.

Sounds like bad coaching and bad scouting are contributing to the problem.

[TrickyNick]

Its the exact opposite. Today's players are far more skilled than previous generations. Today's players are still trying to win games, they just have a better idea of what the optimal approach to trying to win that game is.

The reason batters are taking the walk or homer approach isn't because they want to get paid (sure they do) but because that's what will win the more games (teams pay the most for homers and walk because homers and walks win games)

Pitcher are to good, as a result stringing togther hits to score a run is to hard. Giving up an out to advance a runner is often stupid because again, pitcher ar to good and runner will get stranded to often. Better use that out as an attempt at a home run. Whether or not this is fun, or ruining the game is debatable, but its the truth of whats happening

THIS.

[TrickyNick]

Looks like the alignment Toronto used against Devers on Thursday… with the exception of 3B that they left to the left of 2B… what did Devers do? At the first pitch: made an easy non-power swing, angling his bat through the zone placing the ball to the right of 2B for an easy hit.


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Was at this game. Beautiful, easy play by a great player.

Was basically a Blue Jays home game

[Skipscards]

This Commissioner and the Interim-Commissioner-For-Life-Emeritus have both spent way too much time homogenizing the game and trying to make it as much like Basketball and Football as possible. The game has been evolving for decades, so change is fine. But the problem is, the changes these two morons have spurred have made the game almost meaningless.

[oplum29]

If endorsements are a good measure of pop culture penetration: Ohtani in 2022 is getting more than 2x the endorsement income vs. what the likes of Jeter got at his peak… https://www.mlb.com/news/ohtani-endorsement-deals-increase-in-2022


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Jeter was doing commericals and tv cameos though...that's what i meant. everybody knew who Jeter was. everybody knew who ARod was. Canseco.

if you mention Ohtani to a casual fan or a person who doesn't really follow the game, you might not get a reaction at all.

[bblair_2002]

Are you saying that their benefit doesn’t show up in the players results as measured by inputs to Sabermetric counting stats like WAR or clutch or wRC+?

Were they measured before, and sabermetrics somehow now ignores them?


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Don't know and don't care as I don't pay attention to sabermetrics.

[coachnip13]

Sounds like bad coaching and bad scouting are contributing to the problem.

Follow the money. PG is making a fortune. Coaches get paid. Kids are chasing scholarships. No one cares about the actual game anymore. It’s all about getting paid.

[SupermanBrandon]

Follow the money. PG is making a fortune. Coaches get paid. Kids are chasing scholarships. No one cares about the actual game anymore. It’s all about getting paid.

So kind of like cards? Topps & Influencers are getting paid. Kids care about money and fame. No one cares about collecting anymore.

[spuds1961]

Don't know and don't care as I don't pay attention to sabermetrics.

Me neither, the sabermetrics people were the kids I wouldn’t hang out with in high school. It is not that I don’t understand sabermetrics or couldn’t figure it out. Nothing those type of kids ever did in high school was ever live by the seat of your pants spontaneous. Baseball was never meant to be this analytical I think of all the great moments of the game we would have been robbed of if analytics had been a thing a long time ago. Face it when I watch a game I view it as entertainment when I have to treat every situation like a high school exam well that just like those kids in high school that never did understand spontaneity it takes away most of the fun.

[pewe]

Jeter was doing commericals and tv cameos though...that's what i meant. everybody knew who Jeter was. everybody knew who ARod was. Canseco.

if you mention Ohtani to a casual fan or a person who doesn't really follow the game, you might not get a reaction at all.


I feel like I’ve seen Lindor in a few things on national TV. Maybe Bryce Harper, too?


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[pewe]

Don't know and don't care as I don't pay attention to sabermetrics.


No worries - utilizing sabermetrics isn’t required to enjoy the game.

It sounded like you like to follow players’ hustle and attitude. What traditional / non-sabermetrics stats do you like for those? That help you stay on top / track performance on them across the league?


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[oplum29]

I feel like I’ve seen Lindor in a few things on national TV. Maybe Bryce Harper, too?


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Taco Bell commercials i think

[coachnip13]

No worries - utilizing sabermetrics isn’t required to enjoy the game.

It sounded like you like to follow players’ hustle and attitude. What traditional / non-sabermetrics stats do you like for those? That help you stay on top / track performance on them across the league?


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Why does there have to be a stat tied to everything? Why can’t he appreciate the way some players play the game without having to measure it?

[coachnip13]

No worries - utilizing sabermetrics isn’t required to enjoy the game.

It sounded like you like to follow players’ hustle and attitude. What traditional / non-sabermetrics stats do you like for those? That help you stay on top / track performance on them across the league?


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This mindset is why the analytics guys tend to dismiss things like leadership and culture. They don’t know how to measure it, so it must not exist.

[pewe]

Why does there have to be a stat tied to everything? Why can’t he appreciate the way some players play the game without having to measure it?


He’s the one who implied that he’s tracking those things, and that Sabermetrics do a worse job vs. what he uses. I’m just always interested in learning new approaches that people have.


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[88horsepower]

He’s just a pawn…..owners move the strings.

Just like the NFL.

[pewe]

This mindset is why the analytics guys tend to dismiss things like leadership and culture. They don’t know how to measure it, so it must not exist.


What makes you think Bill James would dismiss the value / benefit of leadership and culture?

I’d hypothesize he thinks they are critical, given how much he’s discussed and focused on the importance of having the right cultural mindset and of driving a leadership transformation in baseball


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[johnlocke36]

This mindset is why the analytics guys tend to dismiss things like leadership and culture. They don’t know how to measure it, so it must not exist.

its by far and away the least important in baseball out of all the major sports. There are just so many (almost all) individualized components compared to all the other sports that allow for pure individual talent to dominate. It's also probably why you don't recognize the importance/place of things like perfect game.

[johnlocke36]

At least for me, I enjoy all the sabermetric stuff in all sport, things like teams that punt to much and lack of 2 point conversions are interesting.

I frequently see the take its ruining the game etc. The take I don't see is that this is just the correct way to play the game and players/teams/coaches/front office of the past were just to dumb to realize it.

Whether or not that game is fun, entertaining, sure that s a debate, but if your goal is to win (it is a game after all) then surely this is the correct approach. You can't fault people for doing their jobs, fault the people that didn't do their jobs for 70 years that normalized bad decisions

[bblair_2002]

No worries - utilizing sabermetrics isn’t required to enjoy the game.

It sounded like you like to follow players’ hustle and attitude. What traditional / non-sabermetrics stats do you like for those? That help you stay on top / track performance on them across the league?


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There are no stats for those. My generation calls them intangibles. You figure such players out simply by watching them play and how they interact with their teammates.

[coachnip13]

its by far and away the least important in baseball out of all the major sports. There are just so many (almost all) individualized components compared to all the other sports that allow for pure individual talent to dominate.

This is the standard take when someone hasn't been part of a championship team. If anything, baseball is the LEAST likely to have an individual player lead a team to a championship. As usual, you are 180 degrees opposite of the truth.


It's also probably why you don't recognize the importance/place of things like perfect game.

Perfect Game is great for its shareholders and for the .005% of players who get drafted or get a Power 5 scholarship. For everyone else, they would be better off going to camps to be seen.

[coachnip13]

Whether or not that game is fun, entertaining, sure that s a debate, but if your goal is to win (it is a game after all) then surely this is the correct approach. You can't fault people for doing their jobs, fault the people that didn't do their jobs for 70 years that normalized bad decisions

Right, the best way to win a game is to have three guys strike out or pop up with the winning run on second. Because we needed a two run homer in a tie game.

[spuds1961]

Right, the best way to win a game is to have three guys strike out or pop up with the winning run on second. Because we needed a two run homer in a tie game.

Get him coach, this is why I can’t take analytics serious because they all seem to have this all knowing aura about them, the game was fine for 70 years in fact I would venture to say more exciting.

[rman112]

Right, the best way to win a game is to have three guys strike out or pop up with the winning run on second. Because we needed a two run homer in a tie game.

The amount of times a runner gets stranded in extras is incredible.

[coachnip13]

Get him coach, this is why I can’t take analytics serious because they all seem to have this all knowing aura about them, the game was fine for 70 years in fact I would venture to say more exciting.

Exactly. The new generation knows soooo much more about the game. That's why Kevin Cash pulled Blake Snell while throwing a 2-hit shutout in a must win World Series game. The analytics said it was the right move.

Watch, though. It's cyclical like in every other sport. While they claim that the "home run or nothing" approach is the "right" way to play, teams are going to go away from it.

[coachnip13]

The amount of times a runner gets stranded in extras is incredible.

I love it when the leadoff hitter in extra innings is a lefty and he pops up to left field. Thanks. For. Nothing.

[johnlocke36]

This is the standard take when someone hasn't been part of a championship team. If anything, baseball is the LEAST likely to have an individual player lead a team to a championship. As usual, you are 180 degrees opposite of the truth.

.

you are misrepresenting what I said. I didn't say 1 individual will lead a team to a championship, I said you can have an entire team of players with a me first attitude and they will have by far and away the most success in baseball.

For example, if you have a rotation full of Jacob Degrom clones but everyone in the clubhouse hates them etc. It doesn't matter, you are just going to win a ton of games. Likewise if you had a team full of Barry Bonds clones you would win a ton of games.

[rman112]

I love it when the leadoff hitter in extra innings is a lefty and he pops up to left field. Thanks. For. Nothing.

The bunting paradox always gets me.

"He doesn't know how to bunt"

"Why not?"

"Because he doesn't practice it"

"Why doesn't he practice?"

"Because we don't ask him to bunt"

[johnlocke36]

The amount of times a runner gets stranded in extras is incredible.

this is a product of relief pitcher being better then ever

[rman112]

this is a product of relief pitcher being better then ever

Relief pitching is absolutely better. And the lack of a hitting approach also shines through.

[johnlocke36]

The bunting paradox always gets me.

"He doesn't know how to bunt"

"Why not?"

"Because he doesn't practice it"

"Why doesn't he practice?"

"Because we don't ask him to bunt"

Firstly, bunting if you are the away team is obviously always gonna be wrong.
Away teams that hold the team scoreless bunt often.

Secondly bunting is harder then ever vs 97 mph sinkers, 100 mph 2 seamers etc.

Thirdly, you can run simulations to see what's gonna happen, say you are facing Diaz who K's like 18 guys per 9 and gives up 1 hit every 2 games. I'd venture to bet that giving up a free out to move that guy to third would be way incorrect.

[johnlocke36]

Relief pitching is absolutely better. And the lack of a hitting approach also shines through.

Perhaps, perhaps the lack of hitting approach is actually just a correct hitting approach to the better then ever pitchers.

[rman112]

Firstly, bunting if you are the away team is obviously always gonna be wrong.
Away teams that hold the team scoreless bunt often.

Secondly bunting is harder then ever vs 97 mph sinkers, 100 mph 2 seamers etc.

Thirdly, you can run simulations to see what's gonna happen, say you are facing Diaz who K's like 18 guys per 9 and gives up 1 hit every 2 games. I'd venture to bet that giving up a free out to move that guy to third would be way incorrect.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen teams score no runs because they're trying to score 2 runs.

And as improved as bullpens are, not everyone is Edwin Diaz.

[johnlocke36]

I love it when the leadoff hitter in extra innings is a lefty and he pops up to left field. Thanks. For. Nothing.

I know, you should just tell the guy, hey you were facing a 98 mph 2 seamer that moved 15 inches. I told you to single to right field and you flew out to left. your cut

[rman112]

Perhaps, perhaps the lack of hitting approach is actually just a correct hitting approach to the better then ever pitchers.

Yes, trying to hit a 450 homer when you need 1 run to win is what you need. Don't ever choke up with 2 strikes, try to shoot the ball the other way, make sure you put the ball in play, etc.

Because you might, just might, hit that 450 foot homer.

[coachnip13]

you are misrepresenting what I said. I didn't say 1 individual will lead a team to a championship, I said you can have an entire team of players with a me first attitude and they will have by far and away the most success in baseball.

For example, if you have a rotation full of Jacob Degrom clones but everyone in the clubhouse hates them etc. It doesn't matter, you are just going to win a ton of games. Likewise if you had a team full of Barry Bonds clones you would win a ton of games.

Except that it doesn't happen that way. Teams that hate each other don't win titles.

[spuds1961]

Exactly. The new generation knows soooo much more about the game. That's why Kevin Cash pulled Blake Snell while throwing a 2-hit shutout in a must win World Series game. The analytics said it was the right move.

Watch, though. It's cyclical like in every other sport. While they claim that the "home run or nothing" approach is the "right" way to play, teams are going to go away from it.

You are already starting to see teams run more instead of hoping for that one home run swing. Analytics can’t have it both ways they can’t say it’s because the players are better if everything was truly a result of analytics wouldn’t it be a 50 50 proposition for pitching vs.hitting. In the playoffs I truly don’t think analytics plays as big a part intangibles and spontaneity are more than likely being used. The computer popped out these numbers so they must be right. Yea okay.

[coachnip13]

Firstly, bunting if you are the away team is obviously always gonna be wrong.
Away teams that hold the team scoreless bunt often.

Secondly bunting is harder then ever vs 97 mph sinkers, 100 mph 2 seamers etc.

Thirdly, you can run simulations to see what's gonna happen, say you are facing Diaz who K's like 18 guys per 9 and gives up 1 hit every 2 games. I'd venture to bet that giving up a free out to move that guy to third would be way incorrect.

Except that you don't need a hit against Diaz. Move the guy to third and then fly out to center. For crying out loud, make contact.

[coachnip13]

I know, you should just tell the guy, hey you were facing a 98 mph 2 seamer that moved 15 inches. I told you to single to right field and you flew out to left. your cut

It has to do with taking a max effort swing on every pitch. You don't have to hit a single. Ground out to second.

[johnlocke36]

Except that you don't need a hit against Diaz. Move the guy to third and then fly out to center. For crying out loud, make contact.

he K's 18 guys per 9. you realize its hard to do that right

[coachnip13]

I know, you should just tell the guy, hey you were facing a 98 mph 2 seamer that moved 15 inches. I told you to single to right field and you flew out to left. your cut

What about against a guy who isn't throwing 98?

[coachnip13]

he K's 18 guys per 9. you realize its hard to do that right

And he's one pitcher. There are 400 pitchers in the league.

[coachnip13]

So every team that didn't score in the bottom of the 10th was facing Edwin Diaz.

[johnlocke36]

Except that it doesn't happen that way. Teams that hate each other don't win titles.

of course they can/do if they are sufficiently talented. the truth is we have no idea what the actual culture of a clubhouse is, whose like etc. But team spirit will only take you so far and at some point talent takes over

[coachnip13]

I love this logic: it's really hard to put the ball in play against today's relievers, so let's swing as hard as we can and try to square it up perfectly. That should work.

[coachnip13]

of course they can/do if they are sufficiently talented. the truth is we have no idea what the actual culture of a clubhouse is, whose like etc. But team spirit will only take you so far and at some point talent takes over

You don't think people in MLB know what their clubhouses are like??????

[johnlocke36]

I love this logic: it's really hard to put the ball in play against today's relievers, so let's swing as hard as we can and try to square it up perfectly. That should work.

you are very close to accidently understanding what's correct, even though you are trying to be sarcastic.

its pretty easy, you can run simulations for various approaches and see what yields the most runs. The teams will then use that approach.

[oldgoldy97]

Grammar is dead.

[johnlocke36]

take any of the top 10-20 relievers and lets say you are down a run in the 9th. run the math on getting lucky and hitting a homer (while also accounting for other non homer positive results) or striking out and run the math of successfully scoring a run on station to station baseball that requires 2+ hits vs guys that give up like .5 hits a inning

[rman112]

you are very close to accidently understanding what's correct, even though you are trying to be sarcastic.

its pretty easy, you can run simulations for various approaches and see what yields the most runs. The teams will then use that approach.

And then when that situation starts to play out and the Manager's intuition says that they probably shouldn't do that, they're helpless. Because the decision was made and anything that's happening in real time is unusable.

[coachnip13]

take any of the top 10-20 relievers and lets say you are down a run in the 9th. run the math on getting lucky and hitting a homer (while also accounting for other non homer positive results) or striking out and run the math of successfully scoring a run on station to station baseball that requires 2+ hits vs guys that give up like .5 hits a inning

Why is it always such a small sample size? Hitters are doing this against EVERYONE.

[rman112]

take any of the top 10-20 relievers and lets say you are down a run in the 9th. run the math on getting lucky and hitting a homer (while also accounting for other non homer positive results) or striking out and run the math of successfully scoring a run on station to station baseball that requires 2+ hits vs guys that give up like .5 hits a inning

How many times have there been scoreless innings with a runner on 2nd? We're talking games with several relievers on each team. They're obviously not all the best relievers in baseball.

[rman112]

Why is it always such a small sample size? Hitters are doing this against EVERYONE.

Seriously.

Bullpens are good =/= every reliever is one of the best in baseball

[rman112]

This reminds me of that Braves/Brewers playoff series. I think it was A-Rod complaining that no one was even trying to bunt despite failing over and over.

[johnlocke36]

because it still holds true for non diaz bullpens and the teams are still going to be taking the opimtal approach.

Its basically just game theory at this point and I think its safe to assume that if it was correct to be playing Coach nip baseball teams would be doing it, the fact they dont is proof alone that its wrong.

Its not because hitter from 1980 were better and these guys don't know how, its because thats just no longer the optimal approach to scoring runs.


same argument for the NBA, why do teams shoot 40 3s a game, because they dont know how to play in the paint? or because its just correct

[rman112]

because it still holds true for non diaz bullpens and the teams are still going to be taking the opimtal approach.

Its basically just game theory at this point and I think its safe to assume that if it was correct to be playing Coach nip baseball teams would be doing it, the fact they dont is proof alone that its wrong.

Its not because hitter from 1980 were better and these guys don't know how, its because thats just no longer the optimal approach to scoring runs.


same argument for the NBA, why do teams shoot 40 3s a game, because they dont know how to play in the paint? or because its just correct

2 things:

1. Just because they do it, doesn't mean that it's right. I'm a Yankee fan. They love their analytics. Yet they keep trying to steal 3rd base - one of the stupidest plays in baseball.

And maybe most importantly:

2. It's a copycat league, just like all major sports leagues.

[coachnip13]

because it still holds true for non diaz bullpens and the teams are still going to be taking the opimtal approach.

Its basically just game theory at this point and I think its safe to assume that if it was correct to be playing Coach nip baseball teams would be doing it, the fact they dont is proof alone that its wrong.

Its not because hitter from 1980 were better and these guys don't know how, its because thats just no longer the optimal approach to scoring runs.


same argument for the NBA, why do teams shoot 40 3s a game, because they dont know how to play in the paint? or because its just correct

Right, because the CURRENT philosophy is always right, even though leagues change philosophies every decade. The NFL is a running league then a defense league then a passing league. When the current trend gets shut down, teams change. That will happen with baseball, too.

You know that you can have multiple philosophies in a game, right? Just because you were trying to hit the ball 600 feet in the 8th doesn't mean it's the ideal plan in the 10th. Good lord, let people think.

[coachnip13]

Its basically just game theory at this point and I think its safe to assume that if it was correct to be playing Coach nip baseball teams would be doing it, the fact they dont is proof alone that its wrong.


So when a power hitter bunts against the shift, does he get fined?

[johnlocke36]

2 things:

1. Just because they do it, doesn't mean that it's right. I'm a Yankee fan. They love their analytics. Yet they keep trying to steal 3rd base - one of the stupidest plays in baseball.

And maybe most importantly:

2. It's a copycat league, just like all major sports leagues.

this is a good example. I assume yankees are easily able to ascertain their rate of success and easily able to calculate how many runs they gain by attempting to steal. My guess is that what they are doing is clearly correct and just appears terrible from a relatively minor sample size and running bad (in expectation not literally).

This is the same issue with lots of NFL coaches and punting. Its pretty easy provable that lots of teams are wrong when they punt, but they keep doing it and the only reason is lots of times when they are wrong it looks really bad and they get fired.

that being said, as a Yankees fan I've had my share of wtf is Boone doing moments as well so who knows.

[rman112]

this is a good example. I assume yankees are easily able to ascertain their rate of success and easily able to calculate how much run's they gain by attempting to steal. My guess is that what they are doing is clearly correct and just appears terrible from a relatively minor sample size and running bad.

This is the same issue with lots of NFL coaches and punting. Its pretty easy provable that lots of teams are wrong when they punt, but they keep doing it and the only reason is lots of times when they are wrong it looks really bad and they get fired.

that being said, as a Yankees fan I've had my share of wtf is Boone doing moments as well so who knows.

So they keep running into outs in terrible situations, but it's right because they're doing it. Lol. Right.

[johnlocke36]

Right, because the CURRENT philosophy is always right, even though leagues change philosophies every decade. The NFL is a running league then a defense league then a passing league. When the current trend gets shut down, teams change. That will happen with baseball, too.

You know that you can have multiple philosophies in a game, right? Just because you were trying to hit the ball 600 feet in the 8th doesn't mean it's the ideal plan in the 10th. Good lord, let people think.

I agree with you on the last part and I assume that hitters are already currently doing that, I just think the lack of results when trying is a product of amazing pitchers less so then being unable to deliver the desired result. in short, its really hard to just hit sac fly even if thats the desired outcome

[coachnip13]

This is the same issue with lots of NFL coaches and punting. Its pretty easy provable that lots of teams are wrong when they punt, but they keep doing it and the only reason is lots of times when they are wrong it looks really bad and they get fired.



This is where the analytics guys get it wrong. It's not Blackjack odds. Sports are played with human beings, and no two situations are the same. There is no proof that punting was "wrong" in any situation.

[coachnip13]

I agree with you on the last part and I assume that hitters are already currently doing that, I just think the lack of results when trying is a product of amazing pitchers less so then being unable to deliver the desired result. in short, its really hard to just hit sac fly even if thats the desired outcome

It's really hard to hit a sac fly when you're swinging as hard as you can. Teams have made it difficult for their own hitters by the way they are being developed. Shortening up and making contact seems hard because no one is asked to do it.

[johnlocke36]

This is where the analytics guys get it wrong. It's not Blackjack odds. Sports are played with human beings, and no two situations are the same. There is no proof that punting was "wrong".

of course there is, you are just to results oriented, see last post. If we were playing BJ together and I hit 16 vs 7 and busted you would say I was wrong because I busted.

[coachnip13]

of course there is, you are just to results oriented, see last post. If we were playing BJ together and I hit 16 vs 7 and busted you would say I was wrong because I busted.

No, there isn't.

If a team punts, what is the proof that it was the wrong decision?

[johnlocke36]

So they keep running into outs in terrible situations, but it's right because they're doing it. Lol. Right.

How are you determining they are terrible situation? By ignoring what the math says and going with what your guy says instead? Just because they are failing doing it doesn't mean its wrong (it could be but very well could be correct)

[coachnip13]

If we were playing BJ together and I hit 16 vs 7 and busted you would say I was wrong because I busted.

Blackjack odds don't change. A punt in a Chiefs-Dolphins game doesn't have anything to do with a decision in a Rams-Eagles game.

[spuds1961]

because it still holds true for non diaz bullpens and the teams are still going to be taking the opimtal approach.

Its basically just game theory at this point and I think its safe to assume that if it was correct to be playing Coach nip baseball teams would be doing it, the fact they dont is proof alone that its wrong.

Its not because hitter from 1980 were better and these guys don't know how, its because thats just no longer the optimal approach to scoring runs.


same argument for the NBA, why do teams shoot 40 3s a game, because they dont know how to play in the paint? or because its just correct

The 3 point shot was a novelty put in place by the old ABA to gives teams getting blown out a better chance at a comeback, sure teams hoist up 40 3 pointers nowadays it makes for a very boring game. Same with starting a man on second another novelty to ensure that games don’t go on forever but a true fan doesn’t care if the game lasts forever. In trying to cater to todays analytical crowd they are losing fans of the old game which I guess is okay because everyone has the attitude we will all be dead soon.

[coachnip13]

How are you determining they are terrible situation? By ignoring what the math says and going with what your guy says instead? Just because they are failing doing it doesn't mean its wrong (it could be but very well could be correct)

Oh my. The math? You are accidentally proving what the rest of us are saying. People in baseball aren't thinking.

[coachnip13]

"The math" says don't let starters face a lineup for a third time. So managers ignore when a guy is shoving, and pull him because math.

[rman112]

How are you determining they are terrible situation? By ignoring what the math says and going with what your guy says instead? Just because they are failing doing it doesn't mean its wrong (it could be but very well could be correct)

There are very, very few situations where the risk/reward of trying to steal 3rd is worth it.

Whenever someone says guys don't steal enough, someone who's analytics-forward always says that it's not worth it. 3rd base is that times like 10.

[johnlocke36]

No, there isn't.

If a team punts, what is the proof that it was the wrong decision?

When you punt you calculate avg expected field position then you calc avg amount of points team score from that position. When you go for it and fail you calc avg amount of points team scores from that field position. Then you calc avg amount of points you gain when you go for it on 4th and make it and throw in a few other factors.

Its not hard and its obviously the correct approach to deciding whether to punt. If you disagree then I don't know what to say

[coachnip13]

When you punt you calculated avg expected field position then you calc avg amount of points team score from that position. When you go for it and fail you calc avg amount of points team scores from that field position. Then you calc avg amount of points you gain when you go for it on 4th and make it and throw in a few other factors.

Its not hard and its obviously the correct approach to deciding whether to punt. If you disagree then I don't know what to say

You're falling right into it, again.

A thousand previous games have nothing to do with the guys that are on the field tonight. My goodness. THINK FOR YOURSELF!!!

[rman112]

When you punt you calculate avg expected field position then you calc avg amount of points team score from that position. When you go for it and fail you calc avg amount of points team scores from that field position. Then you calc avg amount of points you gain when you go for it on 4th and make it and throw in a few other factors.

Its not hard and its obviously the correct approach to deciding whether to punt. If you disagree then I don't know what to say

How do you calculate for what's going on the field at that exact moment in time?

[coachnip13]

So, our defense has been lights out tonight, but let's go for it and risk flipping field position because math.

[johnlocke36]

So, our defense has been lights out tonight, but let's go for it and risk flipping field position because math.

this sums up what someone that can't do math would say. you can factor your lights out defense to the calculations fwiw.

[rman112]

this sums up what someone that can't do math would say. you can factor your lights out defense to the calculations fwiw.

So a decision that you thought was the best yesterday could change based on what's going on in real time.

[coachnip13]

this sums up what someone that can't do math would say. you can factor your lights out defense to the calculations fwiw.

Right, because head coaches are waiting for the "calculation" to come down.

What numbers are you plugging in, considering that the current situation is unique?

[johnlocke36]

How do you calculate for what's going on the field at that exact moment in time?

Certain situations are going to be pretty constant. For example all of football isn't going to convert 4th and 2 and a 50% clib (random) and you are going to do it at at 25% or less or 75% or greater clip. If you feel you are more likely to convert (based on players matchup etc) then you just factor that it for your frequencies.

[coachnip13]

3rd and 7, incomplete pass, midfield. 40 second play clock. Dudes upstairs plug in a bunch of numbers and call down to the head coach. "Go for it".

Or, in reality, the head coach knows it's better to pin the other team inside the 20 since they're not moving the ball. Easy call.

[johnlocke36]

Right, because head coaches are waiting for the "calculation" to come down.

What numbers are you plugging in, considering that the current situation is unique?

yes, they do actually. you can paly around with the surrender index for starters.

[johnlocke36]

3rd and 7, incomplete pass, midfield. 40 second play clock. Dudes upstairs plug in a bunch of numbers and call down to the head coach. "Go for it".

Or, in reality, the head coach knows it's better to pin the other team inside the 20 since they're not moving the ball. Easy call.

its actually the top one. it happens. same way they consult the 2 point conversion chart based 100% on math

[rman112]

yes, they do actually. you can paly around with the surrender index for starters.

Brandon Staley agrees.

[coachnip13]

its actually the top one. it happens. same way they consult the 2 point conversion chart based 100% on math

Come on, man. No one is running numbers in real time and telling the head coach what to do. Sell crazy someplace else.

The 2-point conversion chart is common sense.

[coachnip13]

same way they consult the 2 point conversion chart based 100% on math

The conversion chart doesn't change. You always go for two when you go up by 5. Bad example.

[spuds1961]

When you punt you calculate avg expected field position then you calc avg amount of points team score from that position. When you go for it and fail you calc avg amount of points team scores from that field position. Then you calc avg amount of points you gain when you go for it on 4th and make it and throw in a few other factors.

Its not hard and its obviously the correct approach to deciding whether to punt. If you disagree then I don't know what to say

I am surprised you look at it this way especially in football. How many games has momentum swung because instead of punting the offense went and got stopped and a team otherwise dead in the water is given new life.

[coachnip13]

I am surprised you look at it this way especially in football. How many games has momentum swung because instead of punting the offense went and got stopped and a team otherwise dead in the water is given new life.

Having a feel for the game isn't measurable, so these guys don't think it exists.

[spuds1961]

Having a feel for the game isn't measurable, so these guys don't think it exists.

Might as well just play the games with robots and eliminate the injury factor also.

[Stifle]

"They shifted against Ted Williams and he hit .406"

--Ryne Sandberg


Actually, they didn’t shift on Ted in 1941 when he batted .406. The Shift was in the 1946 World Series. Seemed like a nice statement but not true.

I understand that todays players are instructed to take more walks because placing the ball into fair territory and reaching base has become extremely difficult. I’m still in the mindset that as tough as reaching base safely by creating contact, it’s better than striking out by utilizing launch angle.

[pewe]

The amount of times a runner gets stranded in extras is incredible.


A few days ago the Red Sox managed to get 1st and 3rd nobody out in the 8th, and bases loaded nobody out in the 9th and put up a goose egg. Then lost in extra as they also couldn’t push the player in from 2B. It was maddening.


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[rman112]

A few days ago the Red Sox managed to get 1st and 3rd nobody out in the 8th, and bases loaded nobody out in the 9th and put up a goose egg. Then lost in extra as they also couldn’t push the player in from 2B. It was maddening.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I actually watched this whole game. It was... not fun!

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401355866

[hammertime]

A few days ago the Red Sox managed to get 1st and 3rd nobody out in the 8th, and bases loaded nobody out in the 9th and put up a goose egg. Then lost in extra as they also couldn’t push the player in from 2B. It was maddening.


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The Angels get nothing out of bases loaded with no outs ALL THE TIME. It's insane. No one can hit a sac fly anymore?

[pewe]

The Angels get nothing out of bases loaded with no outs ALL THE TIME. It's insane. No one can hit a sac fly anymore?


The worst is when two batters in a row K. They aren’t even getting a ground ball chance. It’s just pathetic.


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[Raleigh504]

Just state the obvious. The emperor has no clothes. Today's players are far less skilled than previous generations. There is an overemphasis on what is generally best to do and no overall development of skills. Baseball is a situational game. It isn't always best for a batter to either walk or hit a home run. Players are no longer trying to win games, they are trying to maximize their "analytics" to secure maximum pay.

Which is truly on the GMs/owners. You can't have 9 power hitters that either strike out or hit HRs in the lineup and expect to win. Like you said, players are doing this to get paid and stay up in the MLB.

[Raleigh504]

Its the exact opposite. Today's players are far more skilled than previous generations. Today's players are still trying to win games, they just have a better idea of what the optimal approach to trying to win that game is.

The reason batters are taking the walk or homer approach isn't because they want to get paid (sure they do) but because that's what will win the more games (teams pay the most for homers and walk because homers and walks win games)

Pitcher are to good, as a result stringing togther hits to score a run is to hard. Giving up an out to advance a runner is often stupid because again, pitcher ar to good and runner will get stranded to often. Better use that out as an attempt at a home run. Whether or not this is fun, or ruining the game is debatable, but its the truth of whats happening

I see what you are saying, but also, there are a lot of starting pitchers who are horrible out of the stretch and don't feel as comfortable. Also a ton have horrible pick off moves. Now say if your leadoff hitter is a player like Rickey Henderson or Ichiro. Gets a single, then steals second. Once that power lefty comes up, they can't shift like they would want because either the runner at second will have a huge lead or be able to just walk to 3rd base giving that hitter a few more holes to hit to.

[Raleigh504]

Right, the best way to win a game is to have three guys strike out or pop up with the winning run on second. Because we needed a two run homer in a tie game.

Yes, and then trying to reprogram their approach for 1 at bat isn't easy when you have been trying to hit a HR for 600+ pitches. Yes they are professionals, but muscle memory and the mindset of need to swing for the fences vs. put it in play (hopefully in the OF) to get that runner home will be difficult.

[Centauri3]

For regular season, the automatic runner in extras is a great innovation. Immediately puts pressure on both teams, creates drama and interest, and ends the games a little quicker. All fan friendly.

[pewe]

There are no stats for those. My generation calls them intangibles. You figure such players out simply by watching them play and how they interact with their teammates.

You think it is a generational topic? It is a fascinating question: how to follow intangibles...

...Particularly when someone has the common personal constraint that means they get to listen to some games, watch a few more, for their home team. And otherwise follows all other players through the box score.

I did a little research at an extended family dinner last night, with generations of baseball fans stretching to the 1940s in attendance. :)

My father-in-law cut his teeth on MLB sneaking into Yankees games in the 1940s, and has been a passionate fan ever since. My brother-in-laws picked their passion for baseball up in the 1960s, watching the Red Sox. I'm a M's fan from growing up that added the Red Sox (my wife would allow nothing less).

Across all generations their experience was the same as mine. A lot of passion of listen/watching when they could, reading game recaps and local sports writers, but even more-so, following the stats and box scores across the league.

My sense: the energy to follow MLB's measured stats has been its long term strength. And forms the multi-generational bond of many baseball fans.

But no great solutions to intangibles. And a more limited emphasis for following them.

[spuds1961]

You think it is a generational topic? It is a fascinating question: how to follow intangibles...

...Particularly when someone has the common personal constraint that means they get to listen to some games, watch a few more, for their home team. And otherwise follows all other players through the box score.

I did a little research at an extended family dinner last night, with generations of baseball fans stretching to the 1940s in attendance. :)

My father-in-law cut his teeth on MLB sneaking into Yankees games in the 1940s, and has been a passionate fan ever since. My brother-in-laws picked their passion for baseball up in the 1960s, watching the Red Sox. I'm a M's fan from growing up that added the Red Sox (my wife would allow nothing less).

Across all generations their experience was the same as mine. A lot of passion of listen/watching when they could, reading game recaps and local sports writers, but even more-so, following the stats and box scores across the league.

My sense: the energy to follow MLB's measured stats has been its long term strength. And forms the multi-generational bond of many baseball fans.

But no great solutions to intangibles. And a more limited emphasis for following them.

I hear you about intangibles going unnoticed while stats are there in black and white. But the old timer fan such as myself only really had batting average runs batted in home runs and if they were a switch hitter which was their stronger side same with pitching. Sometimes having stats for everything is overkill and a big turnoff. I can understand wanting to be informed but how many of these so called analytics are useful or actually accurate.

[cardinalsooner]

The game today is basically guys trying to hit homeruns off of guys that can't throw strikes.

[smapdi]

Using analytics is not a new thing. You use past performance to gauge the future, and new tools always produce unexpected, possibly controversial results. Those results might dictate doing things in ways that, charitably, look odd. They irritate and frustrate people at first, until they also produce measurable results. Used to be that starters were somewhere between depressed and embarrassed by getting taken out of a game, then specialized roles and stats came along to support them. Mariano Rivera became the first and only player elected to the Hall with 100% of the vote. This is pretty amazing considering his primary role, the 1-inning, only-in-a-save-situation pitcher, basically did not exist 40 years ago.

I don't know what the fallout of constant shifting will be. Could be that rules will change so that no more than 2 infielders can be on either side of second base. Or they could embrace it and start tracking "out of position balls fielded" or something like that, if they aren't already. You know that agents representing 2Bs and SSs would salivate over such a negotiating point to demonstrate the value of their clients in the new iteration of the game. That would inevitably lead to tracking "against the shift hits" or something on the offensive side. And so on...

But to me the most surprising thing is how long the shift took to catch on. Obviously it was done in the 40s against Williams, and sporadically since then. It just shows how far ahead of his time Buttermaker was as a manager.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrjJFNDQJbM&ab_channel=AsturiasFamilyVideos
Cool Carl was such a jobber.

Changing the rules of the game in extra innings is another thing, though. People doubt that Abner Doubleday invented baseball even though that is the official dogma. But even he would be spinning in his grave if he saw this new devilry.

[duwal]

The game today is basically guys trying to hit homeruns off of guys that can't throw strikes.


but to be fair they only can't throw strikes because Angel Hernandez is officiating the game...

[fabiani12333]

So, our defense has been lights out tonight, but let's go for it and risk flipping field position because math.

I don't think analytics can be anywhere near effectively utilized in football as it is in baseball. There are too many variables in football and too much variance play-to-play and game-to-game. The sample of plays and games is too small to consistently realize the benefits of strategies and approaches born from analytics. Football also relies heavily on physical violence, which is naturally chaotic and unpredictable.

But in MLB, you have a relatively large number of games and most of the action is based around the pitcher-hitter matchup. Defenders and base runners are mostly standing around waiting for a ball to be put in play. As a result of this relative simplicity, it's much easier to account for the different variables, and implement strategies and approaches and realize their benefits.

[fabiani12333]

My biggest problem with analytics is how it reduces diversity of play and creates uniformity in the sport. It tells players the right way to play the game, as opposed to players evolving and maturing more naturally and discovering their own unique style of play.

For example, would Ohtani be the two-way star he is now if he had grown up in the US? I think analytics would have told him to focus on and maximize only one side of his game. I think analytics would still tell him to do this. But the beauty of Ohtani is he is a unique athlete. He hasn't been pigeonholed.

The positive side of analytics is it helps players unlock their potential. It helps players discover and maximize their best attributes. But this also causes specialization and detracts from the complete game of a player.