Mookie Betts - Undervalued or Overvalued ?

[jg8422]

How does everyone feel about him as a player and his card values in relation to other players and the current card market?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Mostly appropriately valued, maybe slightly under valued.

[SupermanBrandon]

In today's "market" almost every "star" is overvalued!

[blackbears86]

slightly undervalued. Former MVP, on a great team in a high value market, excellent defender and in his peak years. Projected for 40 HR's this year which would be a high for him.


My only knock on him is the injury history.



edit: Also has a limited supply of auto's out there which is rare in today's market.

[atk825]

I just got his Stadium Club rookie auto for around $300, which is a fraction of what Juan Soto or Mike Trout's autos, even far from their rookie years, go for and he hasn't signed any cards since 2016. Also, his chrome rookie is really low pop compared to what is produced today. Hard to see how he's not undervalued given that he's as likely of a Hall of Famer that there is under the age of 30.

[BBases31]

Undervalued. He's probably the only other HOF lock for a position player right now aside from Trout. He's got an MVP, WS MVP, 2 rings, and could easily wind up with 4 or 5 rings by the time it's all done.

On top of that, he doesn't have many rookies. His main rookies were in 2014 Update so the print run is relatively low. Besides those is just Stadium Club(print run under 10,000) and Sterling(print run around 3000). He also doesn't have any autos at all after 2015.

[Cardsandcoffee]

IMO undervalued. What a great player

[blackbears86]

Undervalued. He's probably the only other HOF lock for a position player right now aside from Trout. He's got an MVP, WS MVP, 2 rings, and could easily wind up with 4 or 5 rings by the time it's all done.

On top of that, he doesn't have many rookies. His main rookies were in 2014 Update so the print run is relatively low. Besides those is just Stadium Club(print run under 10,000) and Sterling(print run around 3000). He also doesn't have any autos at all after 2015.




All great points. The auto thing is a biggie for me.


Dude hasn't signed in...........forever.

[ThoseBackPages]

priced accordingly

[BBases31]

All great points. The auto thing is a biggie for me.

I've always wondered when this would start to kick in on his BC and rookie autos and I think is the first year that it's actually starting to have an affect. All of his 2014 Autos are up significantly from a year ago while all the other 2014 stuff is still down

[tyrith]

I feel like he's probably one of the safer investments around; pretty much a HOF lock, doesn't have a lot of autos. Has a chance of being a real inner circle, 90+ WAR kind of guy. Barring a PED suspension or a criminal charge, I don't really see what would downshift his values, even if he's not the most pizzazzy top 3 kind of player there's been.

[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

Undervalued. He's probably the only other HOF lock for a position player right now aside from Trout. He's got an MVP, WS MVP, 2 rings, and could easily wind up with 4 or 5 rings by the time it's all done.

On top of that, he doesn't have many rookies. His main rookies were in 2014 Update so the print run is relatively low. Besides those is just Stadium Club(print run under 10,000) and Sterling(print run around 3000). He also doesn't have any autos at all after 2015.

He has autos in Supreme, Platinum, and Heritage...

[Adubbs111]

Barring a PED suspension or a criminal charge, I don't really see what would downshift his values, even if he's not the most pizzazzy top 3 kind of player there's been.

The biggest fear for me (as a huge fan) would be injuries. He’s had quite a few already, and he’s a pretty small guy. I really hope he stays healthy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to have health issues.

Unfortunately, I can’t put PEDs as a non-issue for anyone, but I don’t see how Mookie would get into any legal trouble. He seems like a very good guy.

[tyrith]

[QUOTE=Adubbs111;18400134]The biggest fear for me (as a huge fan) would be injuries. He’s had quite a few already, and he’s a pretty small guy. I really hope he stays healthy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to have health issues.

/QUOTE]

Fair enough. He has played msot of a season every year of his career. As long as he's getting 130 games a year he's gonna keep accumulating.

[atk825]

The biggest fear for me (as a huge fan) would be injuries. He’s had quite a few already, and he’s a pretty small guy. I really hope he stays healthy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to have health issues.

Unfortunately, I can’t put PEDs as a non-issue for anyone, but I don’t see how Mookie would get into any legal trouble. He seems like a very good guy.


Since his first full season in 2015, he's played in 87% of the total games. He had the hip injury last year and the ribs injury this year, but I wouldn't say he's been exactly injury prone. Will be interesting too as he starts losing a step or two into his 30s how much there's the possibility he moves to second.

[atk825]

I've always wondered when this would start to kick in on his BC and rookie autos and I think is the first year that it's actually starting to have an affect. All of his 2014 Autos are up significantly from a year ago while all the other 2014 stuff is still down


He really has a very limited run on his autos. I probably missed the bus on his BCA but his base stadium club auto calculates out to a PR of around 750, and it's a super condition sensitive card to begin with. There's no way it should be under $500, given that he doesn't sign and this is one of the few on card autos there are of him.

[atk825]

I feel like he's probably one of the safer investments around; pretty much a HOF lock, doesn't have a lot of autos. Has a chance of being a real inner circle, 90+ WAR kind of guy. Barring a PED suspension or a criminal charge, I don't really see what would downshift his values, even if he's not the most pizzazzy top 3 kind of player there's been.

He doesn't do a ton of endorsements or anything but he seems to be really popular. He's been the #1 jersey a number of years and just from asking my nephews here in the Bay Area, he's both of their favorite player.

[blackbears86]

He doesn't do a ton of endorsements or anything but he seems to be really popular. He's been the #1 jersey a number of years and just from asking my nephews here in the Bay Area, he's both of their favorite player.




Character wise, I think he's about as good as it gets.


Of course you never really know, but I would be absolutely shocked if he did PEDS's.

[jg8422]

Undervalued. He's probably the only other HOF lock for a position player right now aside from Trout. He's got an MVP, WS MVP, 2 rings, and could easily wind up with 4 or 5 rings by the time it's all done.

On top of that, he doesn't have many rookies. His main rookies were in 2014 Update so the print run is relatively low. Besides those is just Stadium Club(print run under 10,000) and Sterling(print run around 3000). He also doesn't have any autos at all after 2015.

Love the analysis. I didn't know his auto was that scarce.

[SaveMeTheGum]

The next few years will tell. He could still become Willie Mays or Andrew McCutchen.

[awz50]

The next few years will tell. He could still become Willie Mays or Andrew McCutchen.

Imagine your downside is Cutch

[SupermanBrandon]

If Im Mookie Betts today and I end my career as Cutch...Im pissed and highly disappointed in my career!

[atk825]

If Im Mookie Betts today and I end my career as Cutch...Im pissed and highly disappointed in my career!


Betts already has a higher career WAR than Cutch.

[BBases31]

The next few years will tell. He could still become Willie Mays or Andrew McCutchen.

Lol just picked the first black outfielder you could think of to compare him to? Mooke is only 1 WAR behind McCutchen for his career(50.8 to 49.8). Also, McCutchen in his age 29 season: 1.1 WAR. Mookie in his current age 29 season: 6.3 WAR. In no way are they ever in the same conversation for a downside comp, even if Mookie declines very hard. Mookie's extreme downside case is more like Jim Edmonds with a bunch of rings

[cardsin47]

I’m sure I’m in the minority- but I find Mookie one of the very rare instances where his hobby popularity exceeds his justifiability for having it :coffee:

I view him as a “B+” talent, getting solid “A” Hobby love
( for most Stars, it’s the other way around )

[atk825]

I’m sure I’m in the minority- but I find Mookie one of the very rare instances where his hobby popularity exceeds his justifiable for being one :coffee:


He has the highest WAR since 2016 by almost two wins. He has the best single season not from Barry Bonds this century, has an MVP and two WS rings. Not sure how it's not justified.

[Stifle]

Regular season Hero, Post Season Zero.

[LVDan]

I’m sure I’m in the minority- but I find Mookie one of the very rare instances where his hobby popularity status exceeds his justifiability for having one :coffee:

Meaning you think he's more popular than he should be based on production?

I'd argue he's one of stars in the game who has absolutely proven his worth both in numbers and titles.
With so many of the hobby's stars built on projection and "what they could become" he stands out as a guy who is just plain doing it.

[SaveMeTheGum]

He has the highest WAR since 2016 by almost two wins. He has the best single season not from Barry Bonds this century, has an MVP and two WS rings. Not sure how it's not justified.

The problem is, there was definitely some funny business going on that year with the Red Sox. They weren't banging trashcans, but the offense that year was pretty insane and took a steep drop off in 2019. I am both a Sox and a Mookie fan, but I also have eyes. He hasn't come within 50 points of that batting average or 150 points of that OPS since.

[BBases31]

I’m sure I’m in the minority- but I find Mookie one of the very rare instances where his hobby popularity status exceeds his justifiability for having one :coffee:

I view him as a “B+” talent, getting solid “A” Hobby love
( for most Stars, it’s the other way around )

The guy who has the 2nd most WAR over the last 8 seasons(3rd place isn't close) is a B+ talent? So only 1 player can be an A? Or is Trout also B+ only 3 WAR ahead of him over the timeframe?

[cardsin47]

Meaning you think he's more popular than he should be based on production?



That’s correct

[atk825]

Regular season Hero, Post Season Zero.

He had a .900 OPS in the most reason WS he played in.

[BBases31]

The problem is, there was definitely some funny business going on that year with the Red Sox. They weren't banging trashcans, but the offense that year was pretty insane and took a steep drop off in 2019. I am both a Sox and a Mookie fan, but I also have eyes. He hasn't come within 50 points of that batting average or 150 points of that OPS since.

He had a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate in 2019 than 2018. Tell me how you increase your walk rate and decrease strikeout rate when you are no longer cheating as you imply. He also only hit 3 less HRs in 2019. His xWOBA was only 20 pts lower .431 to .411

[cardsin47]

I am definitely in the minority - I collect expensive RC/Prospect wax from 5 sports, and my last name is not Bezos or Musk ( I must be picky ) I focus on rookie/prospect Wax with inner circle GOAT potential. I do not view Mookie as on that path, but It sounds like many of you do

With baseball wax, I go from 2011 ( Trout ) to 2018 ( Soto ), and have intentionally skipped all rookies in between ( 2012 - 2017 )… a normal 5 year period in any sport where there are no long term, exceptional Superstars

[SaveMeTheGum]

Lol just picked the first black outfielder you could think of to compare him to? Mooke is only 1 WAR behind McCutchen for his career(50.8 to 49.8). Also, McCutchen in his age 29 season: 1.1 WAR. Mookie in his current age 29 season: 6.3 WAR. In no way are they ever in the same conversation for a downside comp, even if Mookie declines very hard. Mookie's extreme downside case is more like Jim Edmonds with a bunch of rings

I appreciate you point of view. But though their 29 year old season, Mookie and McCuthen were both MVP winners with WAR's in the 40's and 30/30 type skills with similar builds. And at that point, McCutchen fell off his prior pace. Hence my comparison.

[SaveMeTheGum]

He had a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate in 2019 than 2018. Tell me how you increase your walk rate and decrease strikeout rate when you are no longer cheating as you imply. He also only hit 3 less HRs in 2019. His xWOBA was only 20 pts lower .431 to .411

Curious though, his barrel% dropped 29%. I mean, we could play this game all day...

[Svabinsky78]

I am definitely in the minority - I collect expensive RC/Prospect wax from 5 sports, and my last name is not Bezos or Musk ( I must be picky ) I focus on rookie/prospect Wax with inner circle GOAT potential. I do not view Mookie as on that path, but I know many of you do

Curious, who to you has g o a t potential currently playing, not including guys like Albert Pujols, Verlander, Kershaw, and company.

I am still not sold on Soto or any of the other younger players getting hyped by the hobby community like Guerrero, Franco, Acuna, Bichette, Witt, etc

Mookie may not become an inner circle guy but I think he is well on his way in making a case for induction...... certainly a much stronger case than any of the aforementioned younger guys

[cardsin47]

Curious, who to you has g o a t potential currently playing, not including Albert Pujols and Verlander, Kershaw, and company

At this time, even though I have several ( like JROD ) on my radar:

Trout
Soto


















.

[Svabinsky78]

At this time, even though I have several ( like JROD ) on my radar:

Trout
Soto


















.

Mike for sure is HOF bound although the jury is still out on whether he'll be an inner circle guy because the injuries keep him from achieving his full potential. If injuries don't get in the way during the second half of his career, he definitely has the potential to have stats like Cabrera and Pujols who, in my opinion, are inner circle.

I am still skeptical about Soto....and this year's underwhelming performance is not alleviating my concerns. I do have a few of his cards but am not picking up any more for now. Hopefully, this is just an anomaly of a year for him. Even the truly greats have had off years.

I do have a nice Trout collection because at this point he is a lock so, at the worst, his cards will keep steady but with his inevitable HOF induction will appreciate. Soto's cards on the other hand are still a gamble because he has so much of his career left and if this year is not an anomaly, prices will drop. He seems like a nice guy.....I wish him the best.

[BBases31]

Curious though, his barrel% dropped 29%. I mean, we could play this game all day...

Exactly. You can cherry pick any season and find a few things go up and a few things go down. If he was cheating everything should be up in the cheating season. It shouldn't be some things are up and some things are down. That doesn't help your pie in the sky hypothesis with no evidence that the Red Sox were cheating. It's irrefutable that's extraordinarily unlikely for a player that is cheating to *increase* their walk rate and *decrease* their strikeout rate the season when they stop cheating lol. Same happened to JD from 2018 to 2019. I guess Devers was left out of the cheating? He was much better in 2019.

[cardsin47]

Mike for sure is HOF bound although the jury is still out on whether he'll be an inner circle guy because the injuries keep him from achieving his full potential. If injuries don't get in the way during the second half of his career, he definitely has the potential to have stats like Cabrera and Pujols who, in my opinion, are inner circle.

I am still skeptical about Soto....and this year's underwhelming performance is not alleviating my concerns. I do have a few of his cards but am not picking up any more for now. Hopefully, this is just an anomaly of a year for him. Even the truly greats have had off years.

I do have a nice Trout collection because at this point he is a lock so, at the worst, his cards will keep steady but with his inevitable HOF induction will appreciate. Soto's cards on the other hand are still a gamble because he has so much of his career left and if this year is not an anomaly, prices will drop.

A refreshingly respectful and intelligent response - thank you :)!

[SupermanBrandon]

Mike for sure is HOF bound although the jury is still out on whether he'll be an inner circle guy because the injuries keep him from achieving his full potential. If injuries don't get in the way during the second half of his career, he definitely has the potential to have stats like Cabrera and Pujols who, in my opinion, are inner circle.

I am still skeptical about Soto....and this year's underwhelming performance is not alleviating my concerns. I do have a few of his cards but am not picking up any more for now. Hopefully, this is just an anomaly of a year for him. Even the truly greats have had off years.

I do have a nice Trout collection because at this point he is a lock so, at the worst, his cards will keep steady but with his inevitable HOF induction will appreciate. Soto's cards on the other hand are still a gamble because he has so much of his career left and if this year is not an anomaly, prices will drop. He seems like a nice guy.....I wish him the best.

I give Trout having Pujols stats at the end of his career...ZERO % chance. He wont even get close.

[Stifle]

I’m sure I’m in the minority- but I find Mookie one of the very rare instances where his hobby popularity exceeds his justifiability for having it :coffee:

I view him as a “B+” talent, getting solid “A” Hobby love
( for most Stars, it’s the other way around )

He had a .900 OPS in the most reason WS he played in.

1 good series ? Therefore he was carried throughout how many previous series? I don’t expect greatness in every series but Betts with Boston was invisible in high leverage situations. What is his WPA in the Post Season ? I’ll help, thank goodness he picked it up with the Dodgers because he is setting at -.10 not quite the stuff of legends.

Now regular season, one of the elite players who will help a club reach the playoffs, but then don’t expect much.

[atk825]

1 good series ? Therefore he was carried throughout how many previous series? I don’t expect greatness in every series but Betts with Boston was invisible in high leverage situations. What is his WPA in the Post Season ?

Now regular season, one of the elite players who will help a club reach the playoffs, but then don’t expect much.

He has a triple slash as a Dodger in the playoffs of .305/.378/.458. You’re really grasping at straws here. And he now has nearly 40% more PAs in the playoffs as a Dodger than he did in Boston.

[Stifle]

He has a triple slash as a Dodger in the playoffs of .305/.378/.458. You’re really grasping at straws here. And he now has nearly 40% more PAs in the playoffs as a Dodger than he did in Boston.

He has a -.10 WPA and thank goodness he didn’t totally disappear in the Post Season with the Dodgers. Let’s call it the way it is, he had some big hits in low leverage moments while scratching just a couple big hits for LA, when it mattered. A Negative is where he is at and the discussion has been career based, correct ?o

[blackbears86]

These post season arguments crack me up, when some of the best players throughout MLB history have never sniffed the post season----did that diminish their HOF chances?


If you have to pick on Mookie's post season stats, you have a weak argument.



I'll stick with the MVP, all star, gold glove, high WAR argument.

[atk825]

He has a -.10 WPA and thank goodness he didn’t totally disappear in the Post Season with the Dodgers. Let’s call it the way it is, he had some big hits in low leverage moments while scratching just a couple big hits for LA, when it mattered. A Negative is where he is at and the discussion has been career based, correct ?o

WPA is a dumb stat. Notably doesn’t count any of his incredible defensive plays in the 2020 playoffs that repeatedly swung games in the Dodgers favor. But you have your narrative built, so I doubt any of that will sway you from cherry picking whatever stat you want to pick to show he isn’t an elite talent.

[Svabinsky78]

I give Trout having Pujols stats at the end of his career...ZERO % chance. He wont even get close.

I'd agree with that.....but he could crack 500 HRs.....get to 3000 hits....in the Cabrera vicinity.....just can't get derailed by injuries.

I mean, Pujols is a legend. He truly is an inner circle guy. I still can't get over how inexpensive, relatively speaking, a lot of his rookies are.

He has two really coolpre rookie minor league cards when he was with Peoria Chiefs that you can pick up for like $50.

[SupermanBrandon]

I'd agree with that.....but he could crack 500 HRs.....get to 3000 hits....in the Cabrera vicinity.....just can't get derailed by injuries.

I mean, Pujols is a legend. He truly is an inner circle guy. I still can't get over how inexpensive, relatively speaking, a lot of his rookies are.

Agree. I own ZERO Pujols. But his cards are MASSIVELY undervalued in comparison to Trout and other "today" players. MASSIVELY!!!!!!!!!

[LVDan]

I am definitely in the minority - I collect expensive RC/Prospect wax from 5 sports, and my last name is not Bezos or Musk ( I must be picky ) I focus on rookie/prospect Wax with inner circle GOAT potential. I do not view Mookie as on that path, but It sounds like many of you do

With baseball wax, I go from 2011 ( Trout ) to 2018 ( Soto ), and have intentionally skipped all rookies in between ( 2012 - 2017 )… a normal 5 year period in any sport where there are no long term, exceptional Superstars


Imagine an update set that has both Mookie and DeGrom’s best base RC and parallel chase. Made in respectably low quantities too. Or the Chrome Update stuff which is truly limited, especially compared with today’s ultra modern print runs. Only 55 cards in that set I believe? So juicy shots at base and color.
You may end up regretting not having these in your baseball portfolio considering your long term view


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BBases31]

Imagine an update set that has both Mookie and DeGrom’s best base RC and parallel chase. Made in respectably low quantities too. Or the Chrome Update stuff which is truly limited, especially compared with today’s ultra modern print runs. Only 55 cards in that set I believe? So juicy shots at base and color.
You may end up regretting not having these in your baseball portfolio considering your long term view

Print run on the Chrome Update is only about 10,000. I've got 0.1% of the Mookies that exist :cry:. And the pop report is only around 600 10s

[blackbears86]

[QUOTE=LVDan;18401102]Imagine an update set that has both Mookie and DeGrom’s best base RC and parallel chase. Made in respectably low quantities too. Or the Chrome Update stuff which is truly limited, especially compared with today’s ultra modern print runs. Only 55 cards in that set I believe? So juicy shots at base and color.
You may end up regretting not having these in your baseball portfolio considering your long term view



Love your posts LVDan.



like Mookie, the 2014 update set both in chrome and regular is undervalued.

[cardsin47]

Imagine an update set that has both Mookie and DeGrom’s best base RC and parallel chase. Made in respectably low quantities too. Or the Chrome Update stuff which is truly limited, especially compared with today’s ultra modern print runs. Only 55 cards in that set I believe? So juicy shots at base and color.
You may end up regretting not having these in your baseball portfolio considering your long term view


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hear ‘ya brother! As a Wax and Rarity guy, I REALLY love the update sets. In my relatively unique position here on BO ( active player RC/ Prospect Wax of FHOF’ers in 5 different Sports on a non-millionaire budget, looking thru a 30 year lens ) — this would be just a hair under what I’m looking for ( Mookie and Degrom carrying the sets )

[BBases31]

I hear ‘ya brother! As a Wax and Rarity guy, I REALLY love the update sets. In my relatively unique position here on BO ( active player RC/ Prospect Wax of FHOF’ers in 5 different Sports on a non-millionaire budget, looking thru a 30 year lens )

100% into 2018 Update it is then :D

[Svabinsky78]

Agree. I own ZERO Pujols. But his cards are MASSIVELY undervalued in comparison to Trout and other "today" players. MASSIVELY!!!!!!!!!

Cabrera as well. He has one really pricey card, and 2-3 pricier cards, but you can get many of his rookies, pre-rookie/minor league cards for 🥜.

[BBases31]

Agree. I own ZERO Pujols. But his cards are MASSIVELY undervalued in comparison to Trout and other "today" players. MASSIVELY!!!!!!!!!

Are they really? When you spend the last 6 years of your career as the literal 2nd worst player only to Chris Davis, it takes a little of the shine off the rest of the career. Not to mention the 4 seasons prior to that where he was kind of a bum as well. In the last 10 seasons of his career he had a total of 4.5 WAR. It's one of the most useless stretches of a player in baseball history. Was there ever a worse player hitting 3rd or 4th for most of a decade? It's quite a title to hold. One of the best players of all time during his peak? No doubt. Also probably the worst player of all time that held onto a prime lineup spot for a decade.

Trout also has 80 WAR through his age 30 season. Pujols had 88 for his career. They're really not in the same category for career trajectory unless Trout falls off a cliff

[Svabinsky78]

I picked up the 2013 Brandt Greenville Drive team set with Mookie for $50 on eBay. It is a very scarce set....a la DeGrom's Binghamton set, Goldschmidt's Wilder Anchorage set....I can't believe no one else bid on it.

[Svabinsky78]

Are they really? When you spend the last 6 years of your career as the literal 2nd worst player only to Chris Davis, it takes a little of the shine off the rest of the career. Not to mention the 4 seasons prior to that where he was kind of a bum as well. In the last 10 seasons of his career he had a total of 4.5 WAR. It's one of the most useless stretches of a player in baseball history. Was there ever a worse player hitting 3rd or 4th for most of a decade? It's quite a title to hold.

Yes the end of his career.... Cabrera's as well.....have been the opposite of good.....but you're talking about two of the greatest sluggers of the past couple of decades. You know what, they've playing like crappola...so what, that does not take away from their achievements.....

[BBases31]

Yes the end of his career.... Cabrera's as well.....have been the opposite of good.....but you're talking about two of the greatest sluggers of the past couple of decades. You know what, they've playing like crappola...so what, that does not take away from their achievements.....

Does it take away from what they accomplished in the first half of their career? Nope. Does it take away from their career as a whole? Of course. Pujols spent the first half of his career as the best player in baseball and the last 10 years as one of the worst.

But the stretch Pujols is having this year at 44 is nothing short of miraculous

[atk825]

Are they really? When you spend the last 6 years of your career as the literal 2nd worst player only to Chris Davis, it takes a little of the shine off the rest of the career. Not to mention the 4 seasons prior to that where he was kind of a bum as well. In the last 10 seasons of his career he had a total of 4.5 WAR. It's one of the most useless stretches of a player in baseball history. Was there ever a worse player hitting 3rd or 4th for most of a decade? It's quite a title to hold. One of the best players of all time during his peak? No doubt. Also probably the worst player of all time that held onto a prime lineup spot for a decade.

Trout also has 80 WAR through his age 30 season. Pujols had 88 for his career. They're really not in the same category for career trajectory unless Trout falls off a cliff

Let me tell you about degenerative back issues and guaranteed contracts…

[Stifle]

These post season arguments crack me up, when some of the best players throughout MLB history have never sniffed the post season----did that diminish their HOF chances?


If you have to pick on Mookie's post season stats, you have a weak argument.



I'll stick with the MVP, all star, gold glove, high WAR argument.

David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera are not great defenders, have about close to worthless speed but I want them up when the game is at its highest leverage in both Regular season games and Post Season. I don’t want Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Todd Helton, Prince Fielder and many more coming to bat in Post Season in high leverage opportunities because they didn’t get it done. There is a separation in value of being clutch.

The great ones can do it in the regular season but those numbers are whittled when the stakes are raised during the Post Season. Some members want to downplay playoff performances because their player didn’t Capatalize, while others value players who rise to the ocassion.

[base set]

Let me tell you about degenerative back issues and guaranteed contracts…

I think it’s contagious. Probably spreads at the All-Star Game.

The Mariners Pitcher was repeatedly throwing over to First Base after Miggy hit another single the other day. Respect. Also, it’s fun to watch a young, routinely winning baseball team.

[Svabinsky78]

Are they really? When you spend the last 6 years of your career as the literal 2nd worst player only to Chris Davis, it takes a little of the shine off the rest of the career. Not to mention the 4 seasons prior to that where he was kind of a bum as well. In the last 10 seasons of his career he had a total of 4.5 WAR. It's one of the most useless stretches of a player in baseball history. Was there ever a worse player hitting 3rd or 4th for most of a decade? It's quite a title to hold. One of the best players of all time during his peak? No doubt. Also probably the worst player of all time that held onto a prime lineup spot for a decade.

Trout also has 80 WAR through his age 30 season. Pujols had 88 for his career. They're really not in the same category for career trajectory unless Trout falls off a cliff

Actually, Pujols has 100+ WAR for his career. Listen, I really like Mike Trout but I do have we to agree with the other poster, I don't think Trout will get near Pujols.....almost 700 HRs....close to 3400 hits....I think getting to Cabrera's stats is more realistic ....500 HRs and 3000 hits. This is Trout's 12th season (which is done for him) and he is at 338 HRs and 1500 hits.lets say he plays another 8-9 full seasons, to reach Pujols, he would have average over 30 HRs a season and about 160-170 hits. I just don't see that happening. Like Pujols and Cabrera and others, his numbers will naturally decline with age.

[dantheman514]

I hear ‘ya brother! As a Wax and Rarity guy, I REALLY love the update sets. In my relatively unique position here on BO ( active player RC/ Prospect Wax of FHOF’ers in 5 different Sports on a non-millionaire budget, looking thru a 30 year lens ) — this would be just a hair under whet mat I’m looking for ( Mookie and Degrom carrying the sets )

I really respect your sealed collection and your knowledge on the subject, and my sealed collection is inspired by the thread you started on the subject. With that being said, I am surprised you do not have any 2014 update products. When building my PC, which began in 2017-2018, I was sure to add 2014 Update Chrome Mega boxes and 2018 Update Chrome Mega boxes for the pure potential of both classes. I understand your collecting goals, but it seems like 2014 Update products would be a low cost investment into something that could possibly have the rookie cards of two hall-of-famers and a possible inner circle guy. Do you not take low cost fliers on the possibility of a player or players evolving to a higher level?

[base set]

My memory is that a case of 2014 HHN sat on the shelves of an LCS I visit for many years while being “priced to move”

[cardsin47]

I really respect your sealed collection and your knowledge on the subject, and my sealed collection is inspired by the thread you started on the subject. With that being said, I am surprised you do not have any 2014 update products. When building my PC, which began in 2017-2018, I was sure to add 2014 Update Chrome Mega boxes and 2018 Update Chrome Mega boxes for the pure potential of both classes. I understand your collecting goals, but it seems like 2014 Update products would be a low cost investment into something that could possibly have the rookie cards of two hall-of-famers and a possible inner circle guy. Do you not take low cost fliers on the possibility of a player or players evolving to a higher level?

I appreciate the respect!
If I collected Baseball Wax only, 2014 update would be a desirable addition to my PC. When I add in needing to fund Wax for BK, Hockey, FB and Soccer - it lifts the bar VERY high for what and who gets bought. It’s nothing against Mookie — but when I add in those other 4 Sports, and their top tier talent, there’s just nothing left for what I consider to be “A-“ ‘talent / I need to stick with “A+” only :)!

[BBases31]

Actually, Pujols has 100+ WAR for his career.

88.1 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/albert-pujols/1177/stats?position=1B

[Svabinsky78]

88.1 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/albert-pujols/1177/stats?position=1B


100.7


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

[jg8422]

Interestingly enough, a Mookie BCA Refractor RC PSA 10 just hit ebay auction last night. It's a low pop of only 10. I am guessing ends at 5-6K.

If anyone cares.......
https://www.ebay.com/itm/275443258797

[golakers32]

^^^

That's a pretty, pretty card.

[jg8422]

^^^

That's a pretty, pretty card.

I was surprised it is a pop 10 when it is /500.

[BBases31]

100.7


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

There's a reason most everyone has moved on from bWAR and just uses fWAR :)

[atk825]

Interestingly enough, a Mookie BCA Refractor RC PSA 10 just hit ebay auction last night. It's a low pop of only 10. I am guessing ends at 5-6K.

If anyone cares.......
https://www.ebay.com/itm/275443258797

Well it'll be below $12k since there's one of the other 10 at BIN for that much. Really awesome card.

[SupermanBrandon]

There's a reason most everyone has moved on from bWAR and just uses fWAR :)


I use my eyes, knowledge of the game and the ability to see talent. I don’t rely on made up numbers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TheGZA]

I have no important cards of his so I'd like to think I'm impartial in saying he's undervalued.

I think the injuries ding his appeal a bit but he's played for two of the most iconic teams in league history and is an all-around great baseball player on a HOF trajectory, so I see little risk in buying if you agree on the underpriced assessment.

[blackbears86]

I appreciate the respect!
If I collected Baseball Wax only, 2014 update would be a desirable addition to my PC. When I add in needing to fund Wax for BK, Hockey, FB and Soccer - it lifts the bar VERY high for what and who gets bought. It’s nothing against Mookie — but when I add in those other 4 Sports, and their top tier talent, there’s just nothing left for what I consider to be “A-“ ‘talent / I need to stick with “A+” only :)!



But I've seen you post 2021 football in the unopened thread:D:D:D



Just busting your chops 47"----good luck with the collecting my friend.:)!

[LVDan]

[/B]


But I've seen you post 2021 football in the unopened thread:D:D:D



Just busting your chops 47"----good luck with the collecting my friend.:)!


I avoided mentioning the Wander products from the other thread as well cause I just dig the posts overall.
I’m never in the position to tell others how to collect or invest as I’m a broke mofo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cardsin47]

[/B]


But I've seen you post 2021 football in the unopened thread:D:D:D



Just busting your chops 47"----good luck with the collecting my friend.:)!

‘21 football has “A+ Prospects “ - Mookie is an “A-“ Player
So :p

[blackbears86]

‘21 football has “A+ Prospects “ - Mookie is an “A-“ Player
So :p



HA HA!!!!!

Much luck to you in your acquisitions sir!!!!!!:p

[ThoseBackPages]

2021 NFL is still be printed for sure

[blackbears86]

[QUOTE=LVDan;18401995]I avoided mentioning the Wander products from the other thread as well cause I just dig the posts overall.
I’m never in the position to tell others how to collect or invest as I’m a broke mofo.



Agree. If everyone collected the same player/product, life would get boring very fast.


I'm a fan of 47' and the unopened thread is my favorite on here.


shoot. LVDan, I always screw up the quote button with you.

[blackbears86]

2021 NFL is still be printed for sure



I'm a BIG fan of 2020 NFL products, still picking up unopened from that year. Not sold on 2021 yet, but my mind can be changed with some solid performances this fall.

[ThoseBackPages]

I'm a BIG fan of 2020 NFL products, still picking up unopened from that year. Not sold on 2021 yet, but my mind can be changed with some solid performances this fall.

i think 2020 is also still being printed :)

only half kidding lol

[blackbears86]

i think 2020 is also still being printed :)

only half kidding lol


it did seem like 2018 update was printed well into 2019:coffee:

[cardsin47]

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;18402070

[atk825]

it did seem like 2018 update was printed well into 2019:coffee:

Morale will not improve until the Soto base crosses pop 50k

[Stifle]

Mike for sure is HOF bound although the jury is still out on whether he'll be an inner circle guy because the injuries keep him from achieving his full potential. If injuries don't get in the way during the second half of his career, he definitely has the potential to have stats like Cabrera and Pujols who, in my opinion, are inner circle.

I am still skeptical about Soto....and this year's underwhelming performance is not alleviating my concerns. I do have a few of his cards but am not picking up any more for now. Hopefully, this is just an anomaly of a year for him. Even the truly greats have had off years.

I do have a nice Trout collection because at this point he is a lock so, at the worst, his cards will keep steady but with his inevitable HOF induction will appreciate. Soto's cards on the other hand are still a gamble because he has so much of his career left and if this year is not an anomaly, prices will drop. He seems like a nice guy.....I wish him the best.

I’m pretty much on board. In the Y2K era it’s Pujols, Cabrera and Miggy. I look at getting it done in both seasons like having a fresh lieutenant coming to take charge over a platoon Sargent with years of experience. To be honest, if Betts can win another MVP and win a NLCS & WS MVP, while vastly improving his playoff WPA then that #3 spot becomes in question. If Betts goes on to 2 more MVP’s he just might be #2?

[dfenno]

There's a reason most everyone has moved on from bWAR and just uses fWAR :)

For offensive players, this has merit (but definitely not for some of the writers who hold the votes).

For pitchers, I think bWAR is still better. See Gausman / Alcantara this year, for example.

[Robles Fan]

Is Mookie Betts undervalued or overvalued? Well, that all depends on who you’re comparing him to. In my eyes he’s pretty much been the second best overall position player for like the past 7-8 years right after Trout and has played on winning teams (unlike Trout). And yet Trout’s Bowman First auto is worth like 10x more than Betts’s. In this regard, you can argue that Betts is pretty undervalued. But then if you think Betts is undervalued, what about Justin Verlander who’s arguably the second best pitcher in the game (after Kershaw) and is already a slam dunk for the HOF but who’s key cards still go for considerably less than Betts? I can’t recall seeing any recent Mookie Betts Bowman First autos selling for as low as 400 raw. But I have seen plenty of Verlanders going for just below that. :coffee:

[SupermanBrandon]

Is Mookie Betts undervalued or overvalued? Well, that all depends on who you’re comparing him to. In my eyes he’s pretty much been the second best overall position player for like the past 7-8 years right after Trout and has played on winning teams (unlike Trout). And yet Trout’s Bowman First auto is worth like 10x more than Betts’s. In this regard, you can argue that Betts is pretty undervalued. But then if you think Betts is undervalued, what about Justin Verlander who’s arguably the second best pitcher in the game (after Kershaw) and is already a slam dunk for the HOF but who’s key cards still go for considerably less than Betts? I can’t recall seeing any recent Mookie Betts Bowman First autos selling for as low as 400 raw. But I have seen plenty of Verlanders going for just below that. :coffee:

You can't compare anyone to a pitcher. Pitchers dont have nearly the same hobby love as hitters. Its been like that for decades.

[tyrith]

Something we all need to start accounting for is that these players lost 2/3 of a season in the middle of their prime. Like for Betts vs McCutchen - McCutchen was already into his 2 WAR phase by the COVID year. Betts had a 3 WAR season in 55 games. I don't think it's unfair to think that he would have finished the year with at least a 6-7 WAR year - mirroring either 2019 or 2022. So he lost 4 career WAR and probably 100 hits and 20 HRs to the COVID year. That has to go into the HOF calculus for this entire generation of players.

[SupermanBrandon]

I know Betts is the 2nd best player of his generation. I didn't need WAR to tell me that. All this McCutch comparison is truly laughable to me.

[Jed Clampett]

Definitely undervalued

[Stifle]

Definitely undervalued

Once again the debate may not be so much the player but how a member defines the word “Value”.

Old School - Values capitalizing in situations when the opportunities are present.
New School- Values compiling opportunities that are equated to winning games. All situations are equal.

I look at Betts - 30 years old in a month, roughly : 1100 games, 1300 Hits, 300 Doubles, 215 HR’s, .295/370/.523//.893

Mike Trout 31 years old : 1400 Games, 1,500 Hits, 300 Doubles, 350 HR’s, .302/.415/.583/.998

Miguel Cabrera age 31 : 1800 games, 2,200 hits, 450 Doubles, 350 HR’s, .320/.400/.560/.960

Albert Pujols age 31 : 1700 games, 2070 Hits, 450 Doubles, 450 HR’s, .328/.420/.620/1,040.

I like to look at situational hitting and Post Season. Pujols and Cabrera had amazing situational / Clutch hitting slash lines as well as capitalizing in the Post Season.

[Zauron]

Once again the debate may not be so much the player but how a member defines the word “Value”.

Old School - Values capitalizing in situations when the opportunities are present.
New School- Values compiling opportunities that are equated to winning games. All situations are equal.

I look at Betts - 30 years old in a month, roughly : 1100 games, 1300 Hits, 300 Doubles, 215 HR’s, .295/370/.523//.893

Mike Trout 31 years old : 1400 Games, 1,500 Hits, 300 Doubles, 350 HR’s, .302/.415/.583/.998

Miguel Cabrera age 31 : 1800 games, 2,200 hits, 450 Doubles, 350 HR’s, .320/.400/.560/.960

Albert Pujols age 31 : 1700 games, 2070 Hits, 450 Doubles, 450 HR’s, .328/.420/.620/1,040.

I like to look at situational hitting and Post Season. Pujols and Cabrera had amazing situational / Clutch hitting slash lines as well as capitalizing in the Post Season.

I feel old school valued counting stats, new school values WAR

New school doesn't care about getting 100 RBI's or 40 homeruns, or hits, etc. Do you provide exceptional overall value to the team? Mookie is a great hitter and good defensively, equally a stud of a player. Yet, he will never hit 40 homeruns, nor will he probably end his career with high counting stats that will push him to top of the echelon of players.

However, he will have tremendous war and solid stats

[atk825]

Once again the debate may not be so much the player but how a member defines the word “Value”.

Old School - Values capitalizing in situations when the opportunities are present.
New School- Values compiling opportunities that are equated to winning games. All situations are equal.

I look at Betts - 30 years old in a month, roughly : 1100 games, 1300 Hits, 300 Doubles, 215 HR’s, .295/370/.523//.893

Mike Trout 31 years old : 1400 Games, 1,500 Hits, 300 Doubles, 350 HR’s, .302/.415/.583/.998

Miguel Cabrera age 31 : 1800 games, 2,200 hits, 450 Doubles, 350 HR’s, .320/.400/.560/.960

Albert Pujols age 31 : 1700 games, 2070 Hits, 450 Doubles, 450 HR’s, .328/.420/.620/1,040.

I like to look at situational hitting and Post Season. Pujols and Cabrera had amazing situational / Clutch hitting slash lines as well as capitalizing in the Post Season.


I know it means nothing for collecting but Mookie is far and away the best defender of that group.

[atk825]

I feel old school valued counting stats, new school values WAR

New school doesn't care about getting 100 RBI's or 40 homeruns, or hits, etc. Do you provide exceptional overall value to the team? Mookie is a great hitter and good defensively, equally a stud of a player. Yet, he will never hit 40 homeruns, nor will he probably end his career with high counting stats that will push him to top of the echelon of players.

However, he will have tremendous war and solid stats

He will never hit 40 homers? He’s literally on pace to do that this year even with cracking a rib. He’s basically turned himself into one of the best power hitters in the league.

[Stifle]

I know it means nothing for collecting but Mookie is far and away the best defender of that group.

Betts is by far the Best of the 4 as a fielder / defender. Not even a debate.

[Stifle]

I feel old school valued counting stats, new school values WAR

New school doesn't care about getting 100 RBI's or 40 homeruns, or hits, etc. Do you provide exceptional overall value to the team? Mookie is a great hitter and good defensively, equally a stud of a player. Yet, he will never hit 40 homeruns, nor will he probably end his career with high counting stats that will push him to top of the echelon of players.
I’m
However, he will have tremendous war and solid stats

Old School - looks at RBI’s as a way of capitalizing when opportunities are created. New School - WAR counts the number of created opportunities and then
equates all situations as equal, therefore all batters hit equally. All situations are equal across the board in capitalizing. WAR takes the accumulated stats and creates a equal success rate in determining the value the player is worth over a “replacement”.

For most players, the situation and performance is pretty close to even. For players like Pujols and Cabrera, they are better with Men on Base, RISP, RISP W/2 out, High Leverage , Post Season. They were able to capitalize better when these opportunities were created.

The one situation that has been true for nearly 80 years is that in 2 out W/RISP, Slash Lines are consistently lower than any other. In WAR, that should never occur but it’s a constant. It’s tougher to be successful in some situations than others.

[Stifle]

He will never hit 40 homers? He’s literally on pace to do that this year even with cracking a rib. He’s basically turned himself into one of the best power hitters in the league.

The question for both Trout and Betts vs Pujols and Cabrera is that do Mookie and Mike have to sacrifice their Batting averages in order to hit for power, 40 plus home runs ? Pujols and Cabrera were hitting roughly .330 + while winning a batting title or two.

We have seen sluggers batting .270 with 40 home runs and it’s nothing new. It’s much different when a player can do both multiple times.

[atk825]

The question for both Trout and Betts vs Pujols and Cabrera is that do Mookie and Mike have to sacrifice their Batting averages in order to hit for power, 40 plus home runs ? Pujols and Cabrera were hitting roughly .330 + while winning a batting title or two.

We have seen sluggers batting .270 with 40 home runs and it’s nothing new. It’s much different when a player can do both multiple times.

Cabrera and Pujols also never won titles with their defensive ability. Nobody is claiming Betts is as prolific a power hitter that
Cabrera or Pujols. Betts has had like 1/3 of his total
value come from his defensive ability.

[Stifle]

Cabrera and Pujols also never won titles with their defensive ability. Nobody is claiming Betts is as prolific a power hitter that
Cabrera or Pujols. Betts has had like 1/3 of his total
value come from his defensive ability.

Betts is a heck of a player and is trending towards a HOF resume. The question I’m asking is are we talking the Value of his card or the value of his performance which does affect the card value?

I have 2 non pitchers in the Y2K era who are “inner circle” as far as performance. Trout has more to accomplish and is 3rd, having Betts be roughly that next player is not what I would consider undervalued. As far as card prices, they can peak and dive in todays card market.

[Noles939913]

Something we all need to start accounting for is that these players lost 2/3 of a season in the middle of their prime. Like for Betts vs McCutchen - McCutchen was already into his 2 WAR phase by the COVID year. Betts had a 3 WAR season in 55 games. I don't think it's unfair to think that he would have finished the year with at least a 6-7 WAR year - mirroring either 2019 or 2022. So he lost 4 career WAR and probably 100 hits and 20 HRs to the COVID year. That has to go into the HOF calculus for this entire generation of players.

Tell that to Fred McGriff who finished with 493 HRs. You don’t think he could’ve hit 7 HRs in the two strike shortened years?

[Chrominator]

How does everyone feel about him as a player and his card values in relation to other players and the current card market?

Even-valued

[goldenthumb51]

The guy is a winner