First Buzz: 2022-23 Donruss Optic basketball cards

[BlowoutBuzz]

First Buzz: 2022-23 Donruss Optic basketball cards >> BlowoutBuzz.com (https://www.blowoutcards.com/blog/first-buzz-2022-23-donruss-optic-basketball-cards/)

https://www.blowoutcards.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2022-23-donruss-optic-NBA-58-AM.png

[Bob Ross]

https://media3.giphy.com/media/3ov9jLsBqPh6rjuHuM/giphy.gif

[cardsin47]

I kinda’ like it, but am also kinda’ confused at those different length blue bars coming out from the edges :confused:

[90skid]

https://media3.giphy.com/media/3ov9jLsBqPh6rjuHuM/giphy.gif

love it, and it's true.

[anusinha]

I kinda’ like it, but am also kinda’ confused at those different length blue bars coming out from the edges :confused:

The non symmetric borders is triggering to me

[ninjacookies]

> when you try and impress your parents with your new career shift after completing a graphic design intro course on Skillshare®.

[luke1014]

Looks like they discontinued Splash! at least they give us Steph and Klay last year.

[ricebellypanda]

Looks like these are going to be a 250 card checklist? Not sure why Panini thought this set needed 50 more vets

[ballhawkdawk]

Right up there with 17-18 as the worst Optic design. Oh well. Can't nail it every year.

[mossoholic]

I'm sure the price manipulators will find a way to make sure FOTL somehow sells out above the $300 floor tomorrow. Will be just like Prizm basketball FOTL was. Maybe if you buy at the sellout price you can make 1-5% at best. Anything else is a loss. There is no reason whatsoever that Optic hobby preorder price is above $250. $375 is absolutely insane. Anyone opening gets killed or has to wait to buy until wax prices come down and singles are worthless. Anyone that wants to hold isn't buying until the prices tanks. The way Basketball FOTL has been you're better off just waiting for secondary prices to tank. If you buy during the auction 2-3+ drops above the sellout price you can buy on the secondary market at the same or a lower price at a later date.

Every released 2022-23 pro uniform basketball hobby product is selling way below its 21-22 version. 22-23 Prizm is selling around $540 a box. 21-22 Prizm is around $870 a box. You can buy 21-22 Optic hobby with a shorter checklist for $335-$350 a box. 22-23 will be selling for $235-$250 by the end of the month. But the price manipulators can do whatever they want because they have no incentive to sell at prices the market decides. So of course preorder for every 22-23 product is above what 21-22 is selling at. That's what happens when you let a very small percentage of bums control all the product, give it to them on average at such low prices below market it's only a question of how much they will make, and give them no incentive to actually distribute/sell product at real market prices.

[era41]

I’m good with my 18-19 singles


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[bustsomewax]

I remember barely justifying paying $120 a box for 17-18. We didn't know how good we had it.

[mbrahv1984]

I kinda’ like it, but am also kinda’ confused at those different length blue bars coming out from the edges :confused:

It's an optical illusion to throw us off the fact that every card is centered poorly 😂

[phil]

I'm sure the price manipulators will find a way to make sure FOTL somehow sells out above the $300 floor tomorrow. Will be just like Prizm basketball FOTL was. Maybe if you buy at the sellout price you can make 1-5% at best. Anything else is a loss. There is no reason whatsoever that Optic hobby preorder price is above $250. $375 is absolutely insane. Anyone opening gets killed or has to wait to buy until wax prices come down and singles are worthless. Anyone that wants to hold isn't buying until the prices tanks. The way Basketball FOTL has been you're better off just waiting for secondary prices to tank. If you buy during the auction 2-3+ drops above the sellout price you can buy on the secondary market at the same or a lower price at a later date.

Every released 2022-23 pro uniform basketball hobby product is selling way below its 21-22 version. 22-23 Prizm is selling around $540 a box. 21-22 Prizm is around $870 a box. You can buy 21-22 Optic hobby with a shorter checklist for $335-$350 a box. 22-23 will be selling for $235-$250 by the end of the month. But the price manipulators can do whatever they want because they have no incentive to sell at prices the market decides. So of course preorder for every 22-23 product is above what 21-22 is selling at. That's what happens when you let a very small percentage of bums control all the product, give it to them on average at such low prices below market it's only a question of how much they will make, and give them no incentive to actually distribute/sell product at real market prices.



Noticed DA has had almost 10 cases worth of 2022 Elite NBA FOTL sitting on ebay for weeks with none sold. So maybe the bums do have at least a few consequences coming, not that they aren't still way ahead for manipulation.

[yiguiri2002]

In for 1 at the floor. Thinks it sells just above 350.

[phil]

In for 1 at the floor. Thinks it sells just above 350.


404.17
383.33
362.50
341.67

Hobby "presell" $375 (available significantly cheaper elsewhere)

[ninjabum87]

Poopie

[mossoholic]

Noticed DA has had almost 10 cases worth of 2022 Elite NBA FOTL sitting on ebay for weeks with none sold. So maybe the bums do have at least a few consequences coming, not that they aren't still way ahead for manipulation.

Not necessary. Common sense would tell you that Panini would backdoor at a high price. But we all know common sense doesn't exist with how Panini sells hobby and FOTL now. There is a very good chance DA's price on those and everything else FOTL is so low that they still can't lose.

The big red flag to me was Blez with Prizm Basketball FOTL. He had a minimum 48 cases. You think he paid $812 and above for all those? How many realistically could he have bought per drop if he was buying those all during the auction? Even if you think he somehow got 16 cases per last 3 levels he was listing and may have sold some of 10 cases on dealernet at a loss. On dealernet he was as low as $11,500 a case before shipping and fees. Nevada sales tax is higher than my state and my cost at the floor was a little over $11,000 a case. He was breaking dozens of cases at significantly higher prices. Why would he be willing to sell over $100k worth of new FOTL product at a loss literally the day he received them in the mail? Did the market change that much on those from buying them a week earlier? It's because he isn't selling them at a loss. He is buying at lower prices than someone during the auction can.

[Tonic3]

Sold out $341.67

[yiguiri2002]

Sold out $341.67

Was 1 level off. Again.

[Tonic3]

Was 1 level off. Again.

Don't feel bad. I look at it this way....if you're looking to buy these to flip for profit then good luck because it's nearly impossible since everything took a 180 and has settled back down close-ish to reality. If you were looking to actually open a box.... well then you saved yourself a bunch of money. Likely these FOTL boxes will eventually be sold at close to the sell-out price (or below) if you wait long enough.

I have no FOMO for FOTL (seems like a good t-shirt idea or catch phrase). Things being priced like they are drained me of any motivation to open wax. Things are trending down but they've got a ways to go before I dive back in......and even then I'm sure I'll inevitably still lose money opening :rolleyes:

[phil]

Not necessary. Common sense would tell you that Panini would backdoor at a high price. But we all know common sense doesn't exist with how Panini sells hobby and FOTL now. There is a very good chance DA's price on those and everything else FOTL is so low that they still can't lose.

The big red flag to me was Blez with Prizm Basketball FOTL. He had a minimum 48 cases. You think he paid $812 and above for all those? How many realistically could he have bought per drop if he was buying those all during the auction? Even if you think he somehow got 16 cases per last 3 levels he was listing and may have sold some of 10 cases on dealernet at a loss. On dealernet he was as low as $11,500 a case before shipping and fees. Nevada sales tax is higher than my state and my cost at the floor was a little over $11,000 a case. He was breaking dozens of cases at significantly higher prices. Why would he be willing to sell over $100k worth of new FOTL product at a loss literally the day he received them in the mail? Did the market change that much on those from buying them a week earlier? It's because he isn't selling them at a loss. He is buying at lower prices than someone during the auction can.


Yeah, the working assumption has always been backdoor sales are typically way lower (actual floor or less) than what the sellout price ends up being. Even so DA may still end up taking a small loss on elite just because it's down so much.

[mossoholic]

Yeah, the working assumption has always been backdoor sales are typically way lower (actual floor or less) than what the sellout price ends up being. Even so DA may still end up taking a small loss on elite just because it's down so much.

Wasn't the floor $225 a box for $2700 per case on Elite FOTL? They have them listed for $440 a box $5245 per case If worst comes to worst and they have to break them for peanuts would probably still be able to break at $3750 per case. The 2 biggest reasons prices for new wax for normal buyers aren't coming down like everything else is the direct buyers money tree cheap price and that they can still break it at higher costs than selling the boxes. Even if here or there they have to take a loss on a product the profit overall is sky high.

When 2023 football and 23-24 basketball pro uniform products start these guys will probably be able to break or sell 20% of their allocation to break even. The rest is all profit. No incentive to try to distribute/sell product. There is no reason for them to exist if they aren't going to do sell/distribute new product.

Im sure you are seeing where these FOTL are selling out at and the secondary prices. Right now there is just no reason for a normal buyer to buy during the auction. If you want to buy something to rip and know with certainty you are buying at the sellout price would be the only reason to buy most of these right now. Close to everything at release is significantly overpriced. Bums are presale pricing all 22-23 hobby above what 21-22 is selling at. All released 22-23 hobby products are selling way below 21-22. Some way lower. Can't imagine any of these bums are selling a single box of any new 22-23 basketball at their presale prices now.

[ATLOTP]

21-22 donruss optic bkb is comping on ebay sub $300 consistently now. i think people may have figured out that it is a bad product. i love donruss & optic but if you open this you are lighting your money on fire, you usually open like 2 #d parallels that sell for less than $10 each and an auto of Jack Sikma or whatever.

[smalltown]

Live all over the place now. Now that i've seen them live I'm not sure i've got much interest. The boarders are huge. It's almost distracting. You can see on this Paolo Silver (https://ebay.us/6yvUcM) that there's gonna be a ton of surface scratches too.

[yiguiri2002]

Live all over the place now. Now that i've seen them live I'm not sure i've got much interest. The boarders are huge. It's almost distracting. You can see on this Paolo Silver (https://ebay.us/6yvUcM) that there's gonna be a ton of surface scratches too.

- Weak design
- Huge borders
- Surface issues
- Weak rookie class

This might be the year I'll be able to afford Optic Hobby again.

[smalltown]

- Weak design
- Huge borders
- Surface issues
- Weak rookie class

This might be the year I'll be able to afford Optic Hobby again.

I just can't see it selling well outside low numbered rookies.

[yiguiri2002]

I just can't see it selling well outside low numbered rookies.

Awesome! Outside of Williams, I'm not high on anyone on this class.

I just wonder how low it could get. 250? 200? I can't see it holding above 300 in the short term but I don't know after that.

[smalltown]

Awesome! Outside of Williams, I'm not high on anyone on this class.

I just wonder how low it could get. 250? 200? I can't see it holding above 300 in the short term but I don't know after that.

I gotta think it goes under 250. But what do i know. I'm looking at just skipping Hobby altogether since retail boxes should be dirt cheap and still have Black 1/1s to chase. 21-22 can be had all day everyday for under $80 now.

[TSonn]

Live all over the place now. Now that i've seen them live I'm not sure i've got much interest. The boarders are huge. It's almost distracting. You can see on this Paolo Silver (https://ebay.us/6yvUcM) that there's gonna be a ton of surface scratches too.

Funny, I actually liked it more after seeing it live. I tend to like cards with a lot of silver/refractor surface area. Gonna be tough to gem but that's not a bad thing. The black velocity Paolo looks awesome.

Still one of the worst Optic designs though. Maybe a hair above 2017-18 for me for 2nd to last place.

[sportzluvr1]

17/18 looks so bad. I agree this is slightly better.

Just a mock.

[imbluestreak23]

I enjoyed 2017/18, probably my favorite release aside from 18/19 :(

Especially the vets

[smalltown]

I don’t hate 2017-18. I think it’s truer to the “throwback” feel Donruss and optic used to have.

[mbrahv1984]

I gotta think it goes under 250. But what do i know. I'm looking at just skipping Hobby altogether since retail boxes should be dirt cheap and still have Black 1/1s to chase. 21-22 can be had all day everyday for under $80 now.

You're finding optic hobby boxes for under $80?

[Chris P]

You're finding optic hobby boxes for under $80?

He's talking about retail boxes for 80

[smalltown]

He's talking about retail boxes for 80

Ya i was talking about retail.

[IronCladLou]

I gotta think it goes under 250. But what do i know. I'm looking at just skipping Hobby altogether since retail boxes should be dirt cheap and still have Black 1/1s to chase. 21-22 can be had all day everyday for under $80 now.

I might have a bite under $250. Still overpriced.

[mossoholic]

Hobby already down to $264 a box for a 12 box sealed case at $3175 on dealernet. Will be under MSRP very soon. Clearly BO was moving hobby like hot cakes at $375 a box presale. Over or under they presold 1 box at those prices? Gotta make sure they presale price every basketball hobby product to where there is a 0.1% chance it increases by even 1 cent over the next year or two.

[yiguiri2002]

Great, it's even better than I expected.

Gotta admit it's crazy that the adjustment has come before release. Can't remember the time a product went down 30% before it was even released. This normally happens a few months after release.

[mossoholic]

Great, it's even better than I expected.

Gotta admit it's crazy that the adjustment has come before release. Can't remember the time a product went down 30% before it was even released. This normally happens a few months after release.

Unfortunately, the average person does not see dealernet. They will just buy into inflated breaks at prices based on big 3 artificially manipulated prices. The only reason BO even puts a presale price on hobby is to artificially manipulate the market for FOTL and for breaks. They are selling no boxes at the presale prices they put up for basketball and football hobby right now. Unless you think there are people dumb enough to pay more for 22-23 basketball then 21-22. When anyone can see weeks after release 22-23 hobby products are selling for 65-70% of 21-22. If BO actually had to do what every other business on earth does with new product, sell it, prices would be severely reduced weeks before release versus the prices we see from them now.

[IronCladLou]

Hobby already down to $264 a box for a 12 box sealed case at $3175 on dealernet. Will be under MSRP very soon.

Excellent. Although I don't know what dealernet is, it will put pressure on the other places eventually.

Just need people to stop overpaying.

[oldgoldy97]

Excellent. Although I don't know what dealernet is, it will put pressure on the other places eventually.

Just need people to stop overpaying.

Not really on your first part.

Absolutely on the second.

[BayAreaChris]

Fanatics has exclusive mega their sales people are pushing. $60 per. Higher than their Prizm exclusives.

[BayAreaChris]

Were there even normal megas last year or this year?

[DiamondDonovan]

Were there even normal megas last year or this year?

Nope...I think last time Panini released megabox for Optic was 20-21.

Fanatics only did the exclusive blaster with the green flash parallel last year.

Also curious if they will be releasing cellos for Optic? Blue velocitys have always been a favorite for me.

[Spacemanspif]

crazy how little discussion there is about actual card releases these days. Premium Box sets were released today, sold out right above floor @$562.50. I picked up 3, figured at $2.50 per card I could easily recoup most cost with rookies and team sets, and get to freeroll the autos

[Lame0626]

crazy how little discussion there is about actual card releases these days. Premium Box sets were released today, sold out right above floor @$562.50. I picked up 3, figured at $2.50 per card I could easily recoup most cost with rookies and team sets, and get to freeroll the autos

Damn I bought a set way above that. Lol :doh:

[BayAreaChris]

Who are the autos?

[Spacemanspif]

Base Rated Rookie Signatures Premium Box Set Checklist
25 cards. Serial numbered #/10. Premium Box Set only. View full set details.
203 Tari Eason - Houston Rockets
204 AJ Griffin - Atlanta Hawks
205 Ochai Agbaji - Utah Jazz
206 Johnny Davis - Washington Wizards
208 Chet Holmgren - Oklahoma City Thunder
209 Bennedict Mathurin - Indiana Pacers
210 MarJon Beauchamp - Milwaukee Bucks
214 Keegan Murray - Sacramento Kings
216 Jake LaRavia - Memphis Grizzlies
220 Ousmane Dieng - Oklahoma City Thunder
221 Paolo Banchero - Orlando Magic
222 Malaki Branham - San Antonio Spurs
224 Nikola Jovic - Miami Heat
225 David Roddy - Memphis Grizzlies
227 Jalen Duren - Detroit Pistons
232 Dalen Terry - Chicago Bulls
235 Jalen Williams - Oklahoma City Thunder
236 Jeremy Sochan - San Antonio Spurs
238 Christian Braun - Denver Nuggets
240 Jabari Smith Jr. - Houston Rockets
241 Jaden Ivey - Detroit Pistons
245 Mark Williams - Charlotte Hornets
248 Jaden Hardy - Dallas Mavericks
249 Shaedon Sharpe - Portland Trail Blazers
250 Dyson Daniels - New Orleans Pelicans

would love to hit Paolo / Chet / Jalen, but there are a handful of others that would probably draw a couple hundred bucks

[threepointplay]

crazy how little discussion there is about actual card releases these days. Premium Box sets were released today, sold out right above floor @$562.50. I picked up 3, figured at $2.50 per card I could easily recoup most cost with rookies and team sets, and get to freeroll the autos

Yup. Compare the basketball section to baseball and it is completely dead here when it comes to actually talking about new releases.

Pretty much everyone has moved on.

[mossoholic]

crazy how little discussion there is about actual card releases these days. Premium Box sets were released today, sold out right above floor @$562.50. I picked up 3, figured at $2.50 per card I could easily recoup most cost with rookies and team sets, and get to freeroll the autos

The sell out was very fishy. If it did sell out it was literally 1-4 seconds before hitting the floor. Who would wait nearly the full 5 minutes to buy the last 1 and pay an extra $62.50 plus tax? Either some people have access to a stock counter and knew only a couple were left or it was pulled to not hit the floor. It was any easy add to cart at every point.

Pretty much can't lose at a little under $600 with tax if you're opening them. But if your auto sucks it's going to be a major grind. If you look at the Optic /199 card sales of the rookies and vets you'll be shocked how low they are. The only non autographs from the premium set that will sell over $50, and probably barely over $50 ungraded, are Chet and Banchero. There are probably only another 5 other cards that will be $25-$45. By comparison the UFC Prizm sets sold out at virtually the same price with only 99 sets and 2 cards that were each $150+. 2022 Optic football sets sold out at $750 with 2 cards selling for around $150 each and a black 1/1 in every box.

[rifleman69]

Yup. Compare the basketball section to baseball and it is completely dead here when it comes to actually talking about new releases.

Pretty much everyone has moved on.

off-season releases = zzzzzzzz, we want Wemby, Miller, and Scoot!

[Spacemanspif]

My 3 autos: one good, one decent(?), one bad. I feel like between these and the top 10 rookies I should be able to cover cost, the rest I’m either going to sell team sets or just send to COMC for a steady flow of income

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