Call your shot: Which 5 players from the 2022 draft will have the best careers?

[Ericc5Bears]

Now that we've seen a full year from most of the 2022 rookies we can start to rank them with what we can hope is some reasonable level of accuracy. Here would be my personal top 5 rankings:

1. Paolo Banchero
(Probably the safest bet we've seen in the last few years to be the best player of their draft class. 20 PPG as a 19 year old rookie is really rare and unlike most #1 picks he's on a team that actually has a solid amount of talent with 2 more lottery picks incoming this year)

2. Shaedon Sharpe
(There are at least 5 guys from this draft that had better numbers than Sharpe but in a 2022 re-draft I would take him #2 overall. Might already be the single most athletic player in the nba, can already shoot the 3 at a respectable level, and averaged 24-6-4 the last 10 games of the season. Not even 20 years old yet.)

3. Jaden Ivey
(By many advanced metrics was one of the worst rookies in the league last year but really started to come on strong towards the end of the season. Needs to cut down on the turnovers but his 3 ball not being a major weakness was a pleasant surprise. Averaged 22-7 the last 10 games of the season)

4. Jalen Williams
(Definitely had the 2nd best rookie season behind Paolo. If he were 19 or 20 he would be #2 on this list but I'm always skeptical about guys who enter the league after playing 3 or 4 years in college. Also don't buy the 3 point shot, didn't really shoot it much in college, only at 3 attempts/36 as a rookie.)

5. Chet Holmgren
(A lot of people will be out on him after the injury but I'm still a believer. Was really good in summer league and should essentially be a middle-class version of Wemby if he can stay healthy. Obviously a pretty big if, his ceiling is sky high so I'm still taking him over Mathurin, Keegan, Sochan or anybody else from the class. I honestly wanted to put him at #3 but that may be a bit ambitious.)

[Archangel1775]

I'm just going with your Top 2

[BlueXtreme]

Will Sharpe really get the chance when Dame and Simons are in the lineup? Especially Dame. He’s not exactly a pass first point guard

[rifleman69]

Will Sharpe really get the chance when Dame and Simons are in the lineup? Especially Dame. He’s not exactly a pass first point guard

Yes, Simons will be moved within a year.

[brothertona]

1. Jalen Williams - already a star on a rapidly developing team
2. Chet - NBA Defensive player of the year potential - and has real floor stretching abilities.
3. Paolo - expect a ton of empty stats, didn't rebound well for a 6'10 guy, 29.8 3PT percentage for someone that supposed to be the offensive engine of the Magic. His top floor ceiling is probably KAT - when has KAT contributed to winning.
4. Jaden Ivey - really showed out the last half of the season.
5. Shaedon Sharpe - likely to get traded because Dame will want a sidekick.

[jazz1232dc]

Ranking Chet, who hasn't played a minute in the NBA, over someone like Walker Kessler just seems foolish to me

[jcardstore]

Ranking Chet, who hasn't played a minute in the NBA, over someone like Walker Kessler just seems foolish to me

Walker Kessler is a very limited player. He’s a rim protecting drop big who has no offense game outside of 10ft. Unless he becomes Gobert level DPOY he’s a mid-high 20 minute guy on a good team.

He’s a fine player but has a low ceiling.

Chet (if he can stay healthy) is a universe away from Kessler in terms of talent. He’s every bit as good defensively with way more versatility. His offense game blows Kessler out of the water.

There’s no comparison between the 2 players because Chet is just so much more talented.

[jcardstore]

My official ranking would be:

Chet
Paolo
JDub
Dyson Daniels
Tari Eason

Obviously I am assuming full health. You could argue that history says Chet will be injury prone and I’d agree with you but he also might not be so I am ranking on talent and NBA skill alone.

Chet is the full package on offense and defense. Especially elite defensively as a rim protector and I see some switchability upside as well. He has some decent enough ball handling skills but let’s see it in the league and he’s a good shooter and has really good footwork in the paint. He’s got the foundation of an elite player.

Paolo I feel the same but more slanted towards offense and not so much defense. Honestly I see him as a more well rounded offensive, less athletic version of Blake Griffin.

JDub I identified pre draft as a guy who was going to be way better in the league than he was in college just because of his skill set. He’s got everything to be a top tier NBAer. Can score insanely efficiently, can shoot, good ball handler, elite finisher, good decision maker as a secondary ball handler, amazing measurements, not a super great on ball defender yet but I could see it develop with his physicals. He’s the whole package and we got to see it this year

Tari Eason and Dyson Daniels are 2 guys I’m sure nobody on here cares about cause they don’t score 20 points a game but both are super smart, great defenders, do the little things… etc.

Tari reminds me of a Draymond lite and Dyson a Ben Simmons lite who isn’t afraid to shoot the ball. Both really valuable to NBA teams because they have actual skills instead of just shooting the ball 100x a game.

I’ve said it a billion times on here and get called all kinds of names each time I say it but scoring, especially volume scoring is that absolute least value able skill in the league. 80% of the league could score 20 points if you gave them 20 shots a game. Mathurin, Ivey, Sharpe, etc… these guys can’t really do anything else but score and aren’t doing it efficiently. I understand that scoring drives the hobby but it sure doesn’t drive NBA success at the highest level

[BlueXtreme]

Yes, Simons will be moved within a year.

If you’re a Sharpe fan, prefer they move Dame (they won’t). Simons has a higher propensity to pass than Dame does.

I’d love to see Dame for a guy like KAT. Or Turner +

[BlueXtreme]

I’ve said it a billion times on here and get called all kinds of names each time I say it but scoring, especially volume scoring is that absolute least value able skill in the league. 80% of the league could score 20 points if you gave them 20 shots a game. Mathurin, Ivey, Sharpe, etc… these guys can’t really do anything else but score and aren’t doing it efficiently. I understand that scoring drives the hobby but it sure doesn’t drive NBA success at the highest level


Is there any reason a guy as athletic as Sharpe couldn’t become a good defender?

[jcardstore]

Is there any reason a guy as athletic as Sharpe couldn’t become a good defender?

I'm not saying it's impossible but he was so bad it seems really unlikely. It would take so much at this point for him to be average that even if he did get better it's not really gonna matter.

Being athletic has very little impact on your defensive ability

[BRob1]

If you’re a Sharpe fan, prefer they move Dame (they won’t). Simons has a higher propensity to pass than Dame does.

I’d love to see Dame for a guy like KAT. Or Turner +


Dame for KAT makes zero sense for Portland. They are only trading him for a boatload of picks if they move him.


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[BlueXtreme]

Dame for KAT makes zero sense for Portland. They are only trading him for a boatload of picks if they move him.


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How does that make zero sense? They got as far as they can with Dame imo. They have young guys who can grow but not with Dame. He’s not a pass first player.

[BRob1]

How does that make zero sense? They got as far as they can with Dame imo. They have young guys who can grow but not with Dame. He’s not a pass first player.


You are severely overvaluing KAT. As I said zero chance Portland would do that. Any trade will be for 4-5 first round picks.


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[BlueXtreme]

You are severely overvaluing KAT. As I said zero chance Portland would do that. Any trade will be for 4-5 first round picks.


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Didn’t say just KAT. But any big in there would be nice. Turner + or KAT +
I think you’re severely undervaluing the stifling to the growth of the younger guys with Dame there.

[msink28]

Keegan Murray
Chet Holmgren
Banchero
Mathurin
Jalen Williams

Kings had Murray start almost every game this year and didn't bury him in the playoffs. Typically rookies that get big minutes in the playoffs do pretty well.

[BRob1]

Didn’t say just KAT. But any big in there would be nice. Turner + or KAT +
I think you’re severely undervaluing the stifling to the growth of the younger guys with Dame there.


You seem to be confusing trading dame and trading dame for an acceptable package. I would assume Minnesota has no picks left after giving them all for Gobert, and Turner as the centerpiece of a trade is laughable. Not to mention next year is the last on KAT’s contract. No way the centerpiece of the deal is someone who can walk after one year.

If he’s traded it will be for a package based on multiple picks and swaps, not a veteran player.


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[BlueXtreme]

You seem to be confusing trading dame and trading dame for an acceptable package. I would assume Minnesota has no picks left after giving them all for Gobert, and Turner as the centerpiece of a trade is laughable. Not to mention next year is the last on KAT’s contract. No way the centerpiece of the deal is someone who can walk after one year.

If he’s traded it will be for a package based on multiple picks and swaps, not a veteran player.


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I just think they need a serviceable big. Could be Turner. But they’re maxed with Dame and I think he stifles the youth’s growth

[BRob1]

I just think they need a serviceable big. Could be Turner. But they’re maxed with Dame and I think he stifles the youth’s growth


Here’s what is going to happen. It starts with tomorrow and the lottery. They have a 10% chance at Wemby. They get the #1 pick they draft him and pair him with Dame.

More likely is that they don’t get the #1. They then go into trade mode where they look to move some combination of their lottery pick, Simons, sharpe, Nurk to put a more competitive team around Dame. Those moves likely won’t be completed in totality until the next trade deadline. That will be the point where they decide whether the moves are there to go all in or if they tear it down.

Strictly from an analytic perspective trading dame for a haul of picks is the move. Portland as a market can’t sign free agents and wouldn’t likely be able to resign a vet they traded for. Portland has to build through the draft based on the market they are in.

That said most fans would rather go all in for a 2-3 year run with Dame then start over. Dame will likely have to ask out for them to trade him within the next year. Which he may do if by the deadline they are still no closer to putting the pieces around him he’s looking for.


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[maj78]

1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jaden Hardy
4. Keegan Murray
5. Tari Eason

[gomiamigo]

Nerlens Noel
Jahlil Okafor
Ben Simmons
Markele Fultz
Zhaire Smith

[threepointplay]

I think Jeremy Sochan is a dark horse to slip into the top five.

I will admit to a local bias (he was brought up less than 20 miles away from where I live); so I have watched him quite a bit both on & off the court. 6’ 9”, 230 lbs and comes with a 7’ 0” wingspan. He is confident (yet grounded) with an excellent work ethic and a great determination to improve (witness his willingness to try out a one handed free throw shot to improve things at the line). He is also still four days away from his 20th birthday.

In his rookie season, he averaged 11 points, five rebounds & two assists while shooting 45 percent and he really can defend. His shot clearly still needs work, but the fundamentals are there and he is at an organisation that have a pretty good track record with young talent.

[jcardstore]

I like Jeremy Sochan a lot. I think he’s going to be a really valuable role player. The kind of guys who teams love but probably not gonna get a lot of hobby hype

[rifleman69]

How does that make zero sense? They got as far as they can with Dame imo. They have young guys who can grow but not with Dame. He’s not a pass first player.

you've still made no case for KAT...he's not needed in Portland.

[wubh]

Most guys in the league can put up stats if they get enough volume so my rankings are based on their potential ability to contribute to contending teams.

1. Chet: I think his defensive presence translates, his health holds, and he can grow to be a high level secondary creator and scorer.. Plus, the guy genuinely loves basketball, is competitive as hell, and people who have scouted him since early high school believe in his work ethic.

2. Jalen Williams: a super solid pro already and while his upside might be somewhat limited, the more he played and became a focal part of the Thunder, the better the team did. You can’t say that for most rookies.

3. Banchero: he will put up his numbers but I didn’t view him as a franchise guy going into the draft and continue to hold that belief following his rookie year. He did show off more creation ability for others than what I thought he would do as a rookie so I hope he makes this list look silly in the future.

4. Keegan: I think he will have a Danny Granger like career and development on defense will dictate his true NBA value.

5. Sochan: I’m buying his defensive value and upside to improve his offensive game. Him and Wemby together could be an awesome pairing.