Hobby Bubble Peak Post-Mortem: Prospecting

[tjforce]

I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into.

The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market.

So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few:

Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here.

Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe.

Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well.

I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play?

[oldgoldy97]

Didn’t that Netflix show save the hobby?

[TheGZA]

"Money sucked out of the market" is a good way to frame what I think you're looking to discuss here. As far as specific players, I still see a clear path to Luka maintaining value primarily bc international exposure and also eventually HAVING to play for a competitive team (right....?) Zion is a maybe, Ja is a no.

Argument can be made for virtually every rookie from the past three years (there's a good thread on it somewhere already). Lesson learned is perhaps don't prospect, IDK

[jcardstore]

literally every player had an insane peak during the covid bubble.

Bol Bol was one of the most lmao players who got hyped, right behind THT.

Trae Young was pretty hyped and never lived up to it.

Anfernee Simons got really hyped for seemingly no reason.

Lamelo hasn't lived up to the hype but he's been injured so hard to evaluate.

Honestly, not a single player besides Luka has lived up to the hype and prices.

[SupermanBrandon]

Hype rarely if ever matches reality. /thread

[brothertona]

How has Trae Young not lived up to his draft position?

[JustinVerlander07]

literally every player had an insane peak during the covid bubble.

Bol Bol was one of the most lmao players who got hyped, right behind THT.

Trae Young was pretty hyped and never lived up to it.

Anfernee Simons got really hyped for seemingly no reason.

Lamelo hasn't lived up to the hype but he's been injured so hard to evaluate.

Honestly, not a single player besides Luka has lived up to the hype and prices.

Tyler Herro was a $40 prizm base rookie at one point.

[jcardstore]

How has Trae Young not lived up to his draft position?

That's not the question. Also, Trae just isn't that guy despite being billed as "that guy". He's not good enough to lead a title contending team which is abundantly clear

[brothertona]

That's not the question. Also, Trae just isn't that guy despite being billed as "that guy". He's not good enough to lead a title contending team which is abundantly clear


He was never billed as that guy, he’s been trashed on here and by the media his entire career and has done nothing but average 26 and 10 and gone to the playoffs 3 times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NSGJT]

I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into.

The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market.

So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few:

Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here.

Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe.

Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well.

I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play?

This is an interesting thread but I totally disagree with the premise. Individual outcomes for speculated prospects has little to do with why the card market has crashed, it simply tanked due to external factors and it inherently being a bubble. This was always a speculative bubble. What happened? Rather obvious:

A bunch of bored people with stimmy checks in an era of decadence/luxury in the US economy, during covid, started "investing" into random markets because they were bored. Couple this with youtubers/"influencers" hyping up products and creating entertainment-content out of breaking boxes i.e. Logan Paul w/ Pokemon. This transferred to other products/areas such as sports cards, Yugioh, random anime spinoff cards, and was already happening with cryptocurrencies, coins, funko pop, later graded comic books, video games, submarkets of vintage lagged behind in sportscards specifically I'd say, etc.

It's that simple. This was a speculative bubble and it popped, the question is how much further will it fall. I don't think Ja "CRIP WALK" Morant waving a gun and ultimately missing like 4 games and doing it again now with effectively zero repercussions to date, is the reason the entire card market tanked. Just because some bozos lost money on Zion, Ja, and Doncic/Tatum (latter might get a ring now) haven't done s---, isn't the reason why ALL CARDS have tanked mightily across all mediums (media?).

Why have pokemon cards tanked? Why did Brady/Jordan prices tank? etc. People are just stupid. If you're paying thousands or possibly 5-6 figures for a card of a player who's done diddly jack s--- in their sport you're a moron, sorry. Buy High, Sell Low. You're facing two guns to the face if you bought a speculative prospect during a giant speculative bubble in the card market, you're doubly losing. It's not the prospect failing's fault the market has tanked, prospects fail all the time.

You're going to go through 1000 Shaun King, Akili Smith, Christian Ponder, Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield's before you get to one Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes even Brees/Warner/Wilson who's cards aren't worth anything really. And you'll go through 500-1000 NBA bums before you get to a Bron/Jordan, or maybe it will take another 30 years before we see someone close. Not trying to be all doom and gloom here, but a lot of people on this site think the overall market is just going to maintain or even go up in the future, and more people will be in cards. Will they? I'd say all the people, i.e. anyone who bought into cards in 2020-2022 basically - are going to leave and never look back because they took massive Ls, and if they bought Ja/Zion for sure they took their Ls.

With all that said Wemby soon tho.

[KhalDrogo]

Lesson learned is perhaps don't prospect, IDK
Don’t prospect when the performance needed to sustain the prices isn’t achievable. Which is basically every prospect today.

But in 2019 you could buy unpicked Trae and Luka Optic base for $3-10. That was a worthy roll of the dice.

[jcardstore]

He was never billed as that guy, he’s been trashed on here and by the media his entire career and has done nothing but average 26 and 10 and gone to the playoffs 3 times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Now share the splits....

In 27 playoffs games he's shooting 40/30/85 on 21 shots a game and 4.4 TOs.

That's laughably bad for your so called "best player". It would be pretty hard to find someone who's supposedly the face of a franchise who has been worse in the playoffs.

[JeremyNick]

Don’t prospect when the performance needed to sustain the prices isn’t achievable. Which is basically every prospect today.

But in 2019 you could buy unpicked Trae and Luka Optic base for $3-10. That was a worthy roll of the dice.

With a hobby built and dying on $$$ prospecting since 2020, I’m comfortable saying rock bottom is when it becomes generally feasible to prospect again.

We aren’t close to that yet.

[eastbayak]

literally every player had an insane peak during the covid bubble.

Bol Bol was one of the most lmao players who got hyped, right behind THT.

Trae Young was pretty hyped and never lived up to it.

Anfernee Simons got really hyped for seemingly no reason.

Lamelo hasn't lived up to the hype but he's been injured so hard to evaluate.

Honestly, not a single player besides Luka has lived up to the hype and prices.

Bol Bol was pumped 2-3 separate times.

Such fun times lol.

[NSGJT]

Don’t prospect when the performance needed to sustain the prices isn’t achievable. Which is basically every prospect today.

But in 2019 you could buy unpicked Trae and Luka Optic base for $3-10. That was a worthy roll of the dice.

Two great posts. Yes, I totally agree. It's all about price. Which is why it's absolutely insane that anyone has paid a premium or really ultra-mega premiums for prospects even during covid.

A lot of dumb people accidentally made money by just having cards and a lot of dumb people bought in thinking the rocket just keeps going to the moon. Not much different from a GME meme stock or bitcoin really.

With a hobby built and dying on $$$ prospecting since 2020, I’m comfortable saying rock bottom is when it becomes generally feasible to prospect again.

We aren’t close to that yet.

And yep, I've been trying to say this but I think there are a lot of people still invested into cards and who rationalize on this site. There's an alarming amount of people who think the market right now in mid-2023 being 2x, 3x, 5x in places is "normal" and there is just way more interest in the card market, collecting, etc.

I'm not sure why people think that (well I do, they're coping) because most of the people who got in did so to make money and "invest" not necessarily caring about cards that much.

[jcardstore]

Two great posts. Yes, I totally agree. It's all about price. Which is why it's absolutely insane that anyone has paid a premium or really ultra-mega premiums for prospects even during covid.

A lot of dumb people accidentally made money by just having cards and a lot of dumb people bought in thinking the rocket just keeps going to the moon. Not much different from a GME meme stock or bitcoin really.



And yep, I've been trying to say this but I think there are a lot of people still invested into cards and who rationalize on this site. There's an alarming amount of people who think the market right now in mid-2023 being 2x, 3x, 5x in places is "normal" and there is just way more interest in the card market, collecting, etc.

I'm not sure why people think that (well I do, they're coping) because most of the people who got in did so to make money and "invest" not necessarily caring about cards that much.

The main problem with "prospecting" in basketball over the last few years on here, IG, youtube, etc... is that the people supposedly prospecting know little to nothing about actual basketball.

They opened up some box scores or just randomly threw money at bums because some other dude told them they could run fast and jump high.

Everyone made money during covid no matter what so they all thought they were geniuses despite being generally clueless about the sport.

Terrance Ferguson was hyped here on BO because he had like 2 20 point games in a week or something despite being a bad NBA player. I could list 100 different guys who were like this

[GOATcards]

Why have pokemon cards tanked? Why did Brady/Jordan prices tank? etc.


it's relative to a baseline. Compared to pre-pandemic prices, MJ cards (well, the key one for the hobby) is up like 2.5x. But down like 75% from a very brief peak. (It's basically at a price where I was told, on the way up, "time to sell," but holding it for about 2 months from there brought about 3x that amount. :eek: Dumb luck I guess, probably the case for a lot of peak-covid sellers.)


People are just stupid. If you're paying thousands or possibly 5-6 figures for a card of a player who's done diddly jack s--- in their sport you're a moron, sorry.


It's a gambler's rush thing. It's a market a stay well away from, focusing on the boring ol' established names. :D

Not trying to be all doom and gloom here, but a lot of people on this site think the overall market is just going to maintain or even go up in the future, and more people will be in cards. Will they?


I think it depends on whether more people will be into sports (although you mentioned many other classes of collectibles), and that's probably mostly a constant. Is it whether people who are already into sports, but not into cards, going to get into or stay with cards? That would depend on something else more intrinsic to cards/collecting itself. Many sports fans are really into the MJ legacy, but how many of them are into it enough to have cardboard pics of him?

As for the overall long-term trajectory of a market like this, like in terms of fundamentals - and main fundamentals here would be players' cultural appeal and the aesthetics of the collectible - I'm thinking a lot of it is tied to financial wealth which has its own long-term fundamentals (namely the productivity of the economy). I thought by now there would be models developed that show how much correlation there is between financial wealth and the hobby. (You'd probably have to separate "the hobby" into vintage vs. modern, and other ways. Those Wagners and Ruth rookies continue steadily toward the moon.)

[NSGJT]

As for the overall long-term trajectory of a market like this, like in terms of fundamentals - and main fundamentals here would be players' cultural appeal and the aesthetics of the collectible - I'm thinking a lot of it is tied to financial wealth which has its own long-term fundamentals (namely the productivity of the economy). I thought by now there would be models developed that show how much correlation there is between financial wealth and the hobby. (You'd probably have to separate "the hobby" into vintage vs. modern, and other ways. Those Wagners and Ruth rookies continue steadily toward the moon.)

Those Wagners/Ruths and all of vintage is pumped right now. It was the last thing to be pumped because the hype beast Supremes who were into basketball or football or pokemon didn't care about 1890-1940s baseball cards. And those cards, yes, were a more legit investment.

I don't think they are going to the moon, I think they are being pumped and are the last submarket to be speculated on as it's advertised by influencer losers, youtubers, etc, as "a real investment". They're inflated. I'm not saying vintage hasn't gone up, but a lot of the mega sales are private aka fake on top of that. And it goes up modestly, maybe tracking inflation, maybe doing a bit worse or better. But we never saw vintage "go to the moon" before across 50+ years prior to a covid bubble, it's just doing so now following suit in the speculative process.

I'm not sure about the numbers for Jordan either, I think his stuff absolutely sky rocketed during covid. I'm sure it might have went up a bit prior but, nothing comparable. Same with vintage. There might have been some pre-covid pump, I did hear of with Mantle/vintage, but nothing compared to covid. There is no logical reason why cards will ever boom like they did during the bubble, there would have to be another speculative bubble for some reason, and likely never as big as that one.

[GOATcards]

Those Wagners/Ruths and all of vintage is pumped right now. It was the last thing to be pumped because the hype beast Supremes who were into basketball or football or pokemon didn't care about 1890-1940s baseball cards. And those cards, yes, were a more legit investment.

I don't think they are going to the moon, I think they are being pumped and are the last submarket to be speculated on as it's advertised by influencer losers, youtubers, etc, as "a real investment". They're inflated. I'm not saying vintage hasn't gone up, but a lot of the mega sales are private aka fake on top of that. And it goes up modestly, maybe tracking inflation, maybe doing a bit worse or better. But we never saw vintage "go to the moon" before across 50+ years prior to a covid bubble, it's just doing so now following suit in the speculative process.

I'm not sure about the numbers for Jordan either, I think his stuff absolutely sky rocketed during covid. I'm sure it might have went up a bit prior but, nothing comparable. Same with vintage. There might have been some pre-covid pump, I did hear of with Mantle/vintage, but nothing compared to covid. There is no logical reason why cards will ever boom like they did during the bubble, there would have to be another speculative bubble for some reason, and likely never as big as that one.

the Wagner and Ruth RCs might be placed into a special class of their own, "vintage" doesn't even do justice to them. They're iconic and quite scarce even by vintage standards. Their long-term trajectory has pretty consistently been upward only.

52T Mantles apparently fluctuate a bit more. As iconic and scarce as that card is, it isn't a moon card. (I say its main appeal is to boomers who saw him play, Ruth's appeal is beyond that. I'd say in between the Ruth RC and the Mantle would be the Goudey Ruths, quite a few more of those in circulation.)

Ultimate moon card is the Baltimore News Ruth, yes?

[yiguiri2002]

You are giving ninja a pass by not bringing Sekou up

[yiguiri2002]

I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into.

The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market.

So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few:

Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here.

Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe.

Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well.

I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play?

Crazy to think that despite the pandemic bubble, there are probably some guys who were worthy to pick up at some point and you can make a profit on (SGA, Garland).

Melo and Antman should be the next ones after those 3. Although they came up at the end of the pandemic boom.

Btw did you ever mention the secret projects you were working on? I might have missed them so not sure

[tjforce]

How has Trae Young not lived up to his draft position?

He's very much lived up to his draft position.

He has not lived up to the $400k or so his Prizm 1/1 sold for a couple of years ago.

It would have been hard to live up to that.

[brothertona]

He's very much lived up to his draft position.

He has not lived up to the $400k or so his Prizm 1/1 sold for a couple of years ago.

It would have been hard to live up to that.


That’s my view as well, he’s very much been everything you hope for at that draft slot. Card valuations of course not but neither has Luka. Luka has been a terrible investment since 2019.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

This is an interesting thread but I totally disagree with the premise. Individual outcomes for speculated prospects has little to do with why the card market has crashed, it simply tanked due to external factors and it inherently being a bubble. This was always a speculative bubble. What happened? Rather obvious:

A bunch of bored people with stimmy checks in an era of decadence/luxury in the US economy, during covid, started "investing" into random markets because they were bored. Couple this with youtubers/"influencers" hyping up products and creating entertainment-content out of breaking boxes i.e. Logan Paul w/ Pokemon. This transferred to other products/areas such as sports cards, Yugioh, random anime spinoff cards, and was already happening with cryptocurrencies, coins, funko pop, later graded comic books, video games, submarkets of vintage lagged behind in sportscards specifically I'd say, etc.

It's that simple. This was a speculative bubble and it popped, the question is how much further will it fall. I don't think Ja "CRIP WALK" Morant waving a gun and ultimately missing like 4 games and doing it again now with effectively zero repercussions to date, is the reason the entire card market tanked. Just because some bozos lost money on Zion, Ja, and Doncic/Tatum (latter might get a ring now) haven't done s---, isn't the reason why ALL CARDS have tanked mightily across all mediums (media?).

Why have pokemon cards tanked? Why did Brady/Jordan prices tank? etc. People are just stupid. If you're paying thousands or possibly 5-6 figures for a card of a player who's done diddly jack s--- in their sport you're a moron, sorry. Buy High, Sell Low. You're facing two guns to the face if you bought a speculative prospect during a giant speculative bubble in the card market, you're doubly losing. It's not the prospect failing's fault the market has tanked, prospects fail all the time.

You're going to go through 1000 Shaun King, Akili Smith, Christian Ponder, Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield's before you get to one Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes even Brees/Warner/Wilson who's cards aren't worth anything really. And you'll go through 500-1000 NBA bums before you get to a Bron/Jordan, or maybe it will take another 30 years before we see someone close. Not trying to be all doom and gloom here, but a lot of people on this site think the overall market is just going to maintain or even go up in the future, and more people will be in cards. Will they? I'd say all the people, i.e. anyone who bought into cards in 2020-2022 basically - are going to leave and never look back because they took massive Ls, and if they bought Ja/Zion for sure they took their Ls.

With all that said Wemby soon tho.

It's all these things... But it's also because there are players who went from big money worthless, and the best example is in football just over the last year.

Mahomes happened. His stuff started selling in the 6 and 7 figures. A few people made a whole lot of money on him, and a whole lot of people wanted to do the same by buying the 'next Mahomes'.

First it trickled down to Burrow and Herbert becoming 6 and 7 figure card guys. They both followed that by playing well, but not well enough to maintain those prices.

Then it trickled down to guys like Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, and Justin Fields. They became 5 and 6 figure guys, despite accomplishing nothing. Those guys (3 of the 4 of them) absolutely crashed and burned, and their high end cards very very quickly became unsellable.

Like I said before, nobody was on the other side shorting those cards. The value disappeared, and now there was less money to put into Mahomes, Brady, etc.

Combine that with the big funds, Alt, etc, pulling money out, the overall pie just got smaller.

[tjforce]

Bol Bol was pumped 2-3 separate times.

Such fun times lol.

So gross.

[rasclat]

I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into.

The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market.

So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few:

Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here.

Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe.

Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well.

I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play?

I wouldnt put luka in your group, nobody was expecting him to have a ring by now,mvp maybe but still not realistic. His prices were more from fomo of new people entering the hobby but missing the timing to get his stuff cheap. His career so far is better than what most have anticipated.

Lamelo fits your criteria better overhyped since he was 15 his rookie cards released at the same time all these investorboiz and youtube gurus came in to the hobby.

[jmmintz]

This transferred to other products/areas such as sports cards, Yugioh, random anime spinoff cards, and was already happening with cryptocurrencies, coins, funko pop, later graded comic books, video games, submarkets of vintage lagged behind in sportscards specifically I'd say, etc.

What happened with Top Shot? Do people still pay for those? I never bought one (I think the premise is stupid), so I have no clue.

[tjforce]

Crazy to think that despite the pandemic bubble, there are probably some guys who were worthy to pick up at some point and you can make a profit on (SGA, Garland).

Melo and Antman should be the next ones after those 3. Although they came up at the end of the pandemic boom.

Btw did you ever mention the secret projects you were working on? I might have missed them so not sure

There are always opportunities to profit in this hobby. It's just that there are a lot less these days than a few years ago. Usually, the key is finding stuff and buying stuff that is different than what everyone else is doing. SGA and Garland are two examples of guys who if you bought the right cards low when everyone else was all over Luka, Zion, and Ja... you've done well.

As for projects I'm working on, I'm a believer that long term, Brand/Insert is as important or more important than player. I've been loading up on 3 Panini inserts that I think will be sought after long term (relative to where they are at now). One was football.. Panini Gold Standard Double Eagle and Liquidity. I have my Tom Brady's and Patrick Mahomes' in my collection now. They seem to be doing well. The other two, I'm still chasing. If I'm right, that's wonderful, if not, then I still have some cards I really enjoy.

[msink28]

It's difficult for me to think of any player that's been more gasoline-to-bust than James Wiseman. People are still spending four figures on his cards. How do you help these people who can't help themselves?

Lonzo Ball also comes to mind. Some other guys that I have there are Collin Sexton, Darius Bazley, Marvin Bagley, Jr., Rui Hachimura, Lonnie Walker IV, and Cole Anthony.

Although they've done well on the court, I would put Michael Porter, Jr., Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Anfernee Simons also front and center on this list.

As others have mentioned most of the boom/bust is related to external factors but many new collectors were way too exposed to guys like these.

[Makakilo Cards]

Really like this thread. Of all the bubble-specific things that affected card prices, this one is more cyclical and I'm sure it'll keep happening. I remember Vince Carter and Steve Francis cards going for what was top dollar at the time. My LCS guy was "schooling" me a little while ago about how buying rookies was a better long term play than retired HOFers. Don't get me wrong, do it for the fun, but how many times does history need to repeat itself?

[jcardstore]

What happened with Top Shot? Do people still pay for those? I never bought one (I think the premise is stupid), so I have no clue.

The most perfect intersection of disaster waiting to happen. NFTs and cards together the collapse was epic.

Half the people knew it was doomed to fail but the biggest hype men went down with the ship

[tjforce]

I wouldnt put luka in your group, nobody was expecting him to have a ring by now,mvp maybe but still not realistic. His prices were more from fomo of new people entering the hobby but missing the timing to get his stuff cheap. His career so far is better than what most have anticipated.

Lamelo fits your criteria better overhyped since he was 15 his rookie cards released at the same time all these investorboiz and youtube gurus came in to the hobby.

Good call on Lamelo.

Luka is more of a short term issue, which is the reason I listed him. Him missing the playoffs is no the boost the market needed.

But overall, if you got in early on him, you are still doing well. The folks that paid $2k for his base Prizm? not so much.

[hermanotarjeta]

Coby White?

RJ Barrett?

Rui Hachimura?

Lebron Laker rookies?

[jcardstore]

Coby White?

RJ Barrett?

Rui Hachimura?

Lebron Laker rookies?

LeBron Laker RC was among the dumbest things in all of the covid bubble

[Makakilo Cards]

Coby White?

RJ Barrett?

Rui Hachimura?

Lebron Laker rookies?

Maybe I'm out of touch but were Lebron Laker rookies really a big thing? How big were people getting in on it?

[hermanotarjeta]

Maybe I'm out of touch but were Lebron Laker rookies really a big thing? How big were people getting in on it?

Second year optic holo Lebron laker rookies in psa 10 were selling for $800, $250 raw.

The last psa 10 sold for $66.

[Makakilo Cards]

Second year optic holo Lebron laker rookies in psa 10 were selling for $800, $250 raw.

The last psa 10 sold for $66.

Wow, prisoners of the moment indeed.

[oplum29]

I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into.

The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market.

So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few:

Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here.

Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe.

Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well.

I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play?

new money i think really hurt/helped the hobby out.

those that made their $, good for you. those that dropped thousands on Zion for example, were wearing rose colored glasses that thought their cards would never decrease in value. true suckers. useful idiots in a lot of ways.

if Zion is the poster boy for this stuff in the NBA, then a guy like Jasson Dominguez might be it for baseball.

[tjforce]

Coby White?

RJ Barrett?

Rui Hachimura?

Lebron Laker rookies?

LeBron Laker RC was among the dumbest things in all of the covid bubble

There was precedence for this:
https://img.comc.com/i/Baseball/2000/Upper-Deck-Ovation---Base/43/Ken-Griffey-Jr.jpg?id=98ea89ff-67bb-400f-9e78-28e3d6448403&size=zoom
https://img.comc.com/i/Basketball/1994-95/Topps-Finest---Base/331/Michael-Jordan.jpg?id=24a8499a-e393-4520-a5a1-745e5a9168b4&size=zoom

I'm sure there was a Jordan Wizards card that was hot at one time as well.

[hermanotarjeta]

There was precedence for this:
https://img.comc.com/i/Baseball/2000/Upper-Deck-Ovation---Base/43/Ken-Griffey-Jr.jpg?id=98ea89ff-67bb-400f-9e78-28e3d6448403&size=zoom
https://img.comc.com/i/Basketball/1994-95/Topps-Finest---Base/331/Michael-Jordan.jpg?id=24a8499a-e393-4520-a5a1-745e5a9168b4&size=zoom

I'm sure there was a Jordan Wizards card that was hot at one time as well.

True, but was the third year Griffey reds rookie ever as hot as the third year prizm silver Lebron laker rookie?

I don’t think so.

[tjforce]

new money i think really hurt/helped the hobby out.

those that made their $, good for you. those that dropped thousands on Zion for example, were wearing rose colored glasses that thought their cards would never decrease in value. true suckers. useful idiots in a lot of ways.

if Zion is the poster boy for this stuff in the NBA, then a guy like Jasson Dominguez might be it for baseball.

And I think that's the ultimate problem that's going to hurt the hobby.

Folks that have been around for a long time that were in early and knew what they were doing are still ahead (especially if they took some profits when things really got out of hand). Does it bother me that a LeBron I paid $400 for years ago is only doing $2,000 now, when it was doing probably $8,000 at it's peak? No, not really.

But the person who paid $11K for the PSA 10 Durant Rookie BASE, and has watched it lose 90%+ of it's value... that person is burnt and they'll never get that money back. Now expand that to Zion, Ja, Trae, Simmons, Lance, Mac Jones, etc.

[tjforce]

True, but was the third year Griffey reds rookie ever as hot as the third year prizm silver Lebron laker rookie?

I don’t think so.

Not sure if you remember, it kind of was. Not total dollars wise, but the market was much smaller back then.

As a % loss it's done just as bad, maybe worse. I want to say that it was selling for $20-$40 back in 2000. You can buy it right now for $0.45 on COMC.

Regardless, you see the point.

[hermanotarjeta]

And I think that's the ultimate problem that's going to hurt the hobby.

Folks that have been around for a long time that were in early and knew what they were doing are still ahead (especially if they took some profits when things really got out of hand). Does it bother me that a LeBron I paid $400 for years ago is only doing $2,000 now, when it was doing probably $8,000 at it's peak? No, not really.

But the person who paid $11K for the PSA 10 Durant Rookie BASE, and has watched it lose 90%+ of it's value... that person is burnt and they'll never get that money back. Now expand that to Zion, Ja, Trae, Simmons, Lance, Mac Jones, etc.

Why are you so negative, bro? If there’s another pandemic and KD wins three more rings, then it’ll be lambos for all the Durant bois.

[oplum29]

Austin Reeves is another dude that is being overhyped right now, and people are dropping globs of money on him.

the moment Lebron quits to join another superteam, Reeves' prices are going to drop like crazy, and you are going to have a lot of people holding his cards with no takers.

[hermanotarjeta]

Not sure if you remember, it kind of was. Not total dollars wise, but the market was much smaller back then.

As a % loss it's done just as bad, maybe worse. I want to say that it was selling for $20-$40 back in 2000. You can buy it right now for $0.45 on COMC.

Regardless, you see the point.

I meant for the 2002 third year issue reds Griffey versus the 2021-22 prizm silver third year laker Bron.

[brothertona]

I think Luka is very much a long-term issue - is he actually a championship caliber player? Everyone got in thinking he was the next Lebron and what do you know - there isn't one - there is Lebron/Steph and move down 3 or 4 rungs and then you get to Giannis/Jokic stage.

Good call on Lamelo.

Luka is more of a short term issue, which is the reason I listed him. Him missing the playoffs is no the boost the market needed.

But overall, if you got in early on him, you are still doing well. The folks that paid $2k for his base Prizm? not so much.

[oplum29]

And I think that's the ultimate problem that's going to hurt the hobby.

Folks that have been around for a long time that were in early and knew what they were doing are still ahead (especially if they took some profits when things really got out of hand). Does it bother me that a LeBron I paid $400 for years ago is only doing $2,000 now, when it was doing probably $8,000 at it's peak? No, not really.

But the person who paid $11K for the PSA 10 Durant Rookie BASE, and has watched it lose 90%+ of it's value... that person is burnt and they'll never get that money back. Now expand that to Zion, Ja, Trae, Simmons, Lance, Mac Jones, etc.

the market is in a crazy spot right, i think it's almost at war with itself.

influencers and new money vs. hobbyist and old school

old school always knew there was a bubble. they invested and bought wisely. they knew the bubble would pop.

new money had no idea what a bubble was and never thought prices would drop, until they did.

also, a lot of pumpers and influencers who are more interested in the now, in the cool, in the trends, didn't help in the long run, but got their kicks in the short run.

i've never been much into "prospecting", but i get the buzz over it. i never thought twice about Zion, that was stupid. if i was throwing money around in NBA stuff, i would spend it on a stable player who is a playoff or MVP run away from cashing in. Luka isn't a bad investment at all. neither is Tatum, Trae Young, Booker, and Giannis.

Lamelo is good, but not at those crazy prices. Austin Reeves? lol

me personally, i'm a Spurs fan, so i'm good with my little Keldon Johnson collection. i think he's a Wemba, Scoot Henderson, or Miller away from becoming a name in the league.

but that's just me.

[SupermanBrandon]

In todays hobby market, it's the 2nd buyer in the flip that really dumbfounds me.

Original seller: Good for him for selling a Reaves that he probably ripped. Free money.

1st Buyer: KNOWS he can sell to an unsuspecting pawn that just buying the rumor. Get yours.

2nd Buyer / the Mark / the Pawn: You're an idiot!

[NSGJT]

And I think that's the ultimate problem that's going to hurt the hobby.

Folks that have been around for a long time that were in early and knew what they were doing are still ahead (especially if they took some profits when things really got out of hand). Does it bother me that a LeBron I paid $400 for years ago is only doing $2,000 now, when it was doing probably $8,000 at it's peak? No, not really.

But the person who paid $11K for the PSA 10 Durant Rookie BASE, and has watched it lose 90%+ of it's value... that person is burnt and they'll never get that money back. Now expand that to Zion, Ja, Trae, Simmons, Lance, Mac Jones, etc.

What's your rationale for not selling that LeBron right now? Even at 1.8k if you could move it for that, even at 1.5k if you had to discount it?

That's what I don't understand. Do you think the market right now is sustainable? No one knows "for sure" but I think it's pretty safe to say we're still in a period here where you could sell that card for profit and buy it back in 1-2 years time or so at maybe 50% of the cost of that 2k figure. Maybe less. Even if LeBron won a ring this year that still might be true.

[NSGJT]

Why are you so negative, bro? If there’s another pandemic and KD wins three more rings, then it’ll be lambos for all the Durant bois.

And at the risk of getting into political b.s., and I know you're trolling clearly, the last pandemic was a joke in relative terms.

What if the next pandemic which is comically the bar set here or black swan event is actually dire and the magnitude is higher? I don''t think people will give a flying F- about cards in that scenario.

[KhalDrogo]

Everyone got in thinking he was the next Lebron
:cry:

No we didn’t. He was fun to watch. A different kind of player. And he was affordable to collect at the time. One decent playoff run in five years is disappointing. But four 1st team all-NBA is so far beyond what anybody was projecting. As we’ve seen this year, MVP is a garbage narrative award. Luka will win it when the media wants him to.

[hermanotarjeta]

And at the risk of getting into political b.s., and I know you're trolling clearly, the last pandemic was a joke in relative terms.

What if the next pandemic which is comically the bar set here or black swan event is actually dire and the magnitude is higher? I don''t think people will give a flying F- about cards in that scenario.

It actually wasn’t the pandemic in itself, but the stimmy checks that came along with it.

If another pandemic came along with no stimmys, the market would predictably tank.

[tjforce]

Why are you so negative, bro? If there’s another pandemic and KD wins three more rings, then it’ll be lambos for all the Durant bois.

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

[tjforce]

Austin Reeves is another dude that is being overhyped right now, and people are dropping globs of money on him.

the moment Lebron quits to join another superteam, Reeves' prices are going to drop like crazy, and you are going to have a lot of people holding his cards with no takers.

Movgoz. Delladoeva... a few other names come to mind.

[boxbuster7]

I think people are getting smarter. The cards that should be valuable are becoming the ones that are actually valuable. It has been a long time coming.

But with that said the damage has been done. Cards are not an investment vehicle. There is just too much fraud for them to be taken seriously. If graded cards have discrepancy in terms of their authenticity, it is never going to happen. Maybe AI will save us.

[tjforce]

I think Luka is very much a long-term issue - is he actually a championship caliber player? Everyone got in thinking he was the next Lebron and what do you know - there isn't one - there is Lebron/Steph and move down 3 or 4 rungs and then you get to Giannis/Jokic stage.

Yeah, but that's still up for debate and it's not really going to be that heavily influenced by what happened this year.

If in the next 2 years he wins a title and and MVP, nobody is going to care about.

IMO, this year he lost time. It's maybe 2-3 more years without MVPs and titles that the hobby really starts to move on. Right now Luka is 24 with 4 NBA 1st team awards. If he's 27 and hasn't proven he can be MVP or win a title, then you really start to worry.

[eastbayak]

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

It'd be interesting to know how many dollars lost were attributed to each influencer.

I can only imagine how many people (and how much money) were burnt from Hannah C's advice alone.

[boxbuster7]

It'd be interesting to know how many dollars lost were attributed to each influencer.

I can only imagine how many people (and how much money) were burnt from Hannah C's advice alone.

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

[tjforce]

the market is in a crazy spot right, i think it's almost at war with itself.

influencers and new money vs. hobbyist and old school

old school always knew there was a bubble. they invested and bought wisely. they knew the bubble would pop.

new money had no idea what a bubble was and never thought prices would drop, until they did.

also, a lot of pumpers and influencers who are more interested in the now, in the cool, in the trends, didn't help in the long run, but got their kicks in the short run.

i've never been much into "prospecting", but i get the buzz over it. i never thought twice about Zion, that was stupid. if i was throwing money around in NBA stuff, i would spend it on a stable player who is a playoff or MVP run away from cashing in. Luka isn't a bad investment at all. neither is Tatum, Trae Young, Booker, and Giannis.

Lamelo is good, but not at those crazy prices. Austin Reeves? lol

me personally, i'm a Spurs fan, so i'm good with my little Keldon Johnson collection. i think he's a Wemba, Scoot Henderson, or Miller away from becoming a name in the league.

but that's just me.

It is in a crazy time. Things are starting to shake loose that I thought would be in PCs forever.

I bought what to me is an absolutely grail PC item this past weekend and am moving some other items to refill my coffers. I've been pleased with the prices I've been getting for some of my items, but others seem to be way to low, to the point where I'd much rather have them in my PC then to move them for the prices I am seeing now.

The crazy part about guys like Lamelo is that they were sky high from the beginning. Luka, Trae, Tatum, etc, you could have gotten in early on and made a boatload. Even some Zion and Ja you could have done well with. But the later guys have nothing but bag holders with where they debuted at.

[tjforce]

In todays hobby market, it's the 2nd buyer in the flip that really dumbfounds me.

Original seller: Good for him for selling a Reaves that he probably ripped. Free money.

1st Buyer: KNOWS he can sell to an unsuspecting pawn that just buying the rumor. Get yours.

2nd Buyer / the Mark / the Pawn: You're an idiot!

And this is where the nuance is, because in the past this has been where the people who do their research could make it. Examples of guys who would have gotten ripped as rookies and sold, bought by the first flipper for a profit, then sat under the radar for a while the second (or third) flipper didn't have the patience to wait a few years:
-Giannis
-Jokic
-Embiid
-SGA
-Garland

It's a much shorter list than the one of players that started out high and were busts, but it's there.

Now there's a different question with the guys from the past few years and if there prices are still too high that even if they do pan out it might be a bad buy:
-Cade Cunningham
-Jalen Green
-Evan Mobley

All 3 of them are down big from release. People ripped, people bought to flip, now that 3rd buyer could be panicking if they are in too deep. And yet, there's a good chance that at least 1 of these 3 becomes an all nba guy at some point 4-5 years down the line, based on recent history. But is it enough to overcome the current price point?

[eastbayak]

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

One thing that people need to remember is that, no matter how much research you do on your own, you can never eliminate risk. It'll always remain. And the market of today can easily be completely different from the market of yesterday or tomorrow.

And never put your complete trust into someone else....especially someone who joined the hobby during the pandemic.

[tjforce]

What's your rationale for not selling that LeBron right now? Even at 1.8k if you could move it for that, even at 1.5k if you had to discount it?

That's what I don't understand. Do you think the market right now is sustainable? No one knows "for sure" but I think it's pretty safe to say we're still in a period here where you could sell that card for profit and buy it back in 1-2 years time or so at maybe 50% of the cost of that 2k figure. Maybe less. Even if LeBron won a ring this year that still might be true.

My rationale is different than some folks.

I'm a collector, first and foremost. And I am so far ahead of the game from what's happened the last few years, that it's all house money and I collect for enjoyment. I only buy cards and memorabilia that get me more enjoyment than the ones I already have.

Also, everyone in my collection, LeBron, Brady, Mahomes, Garland, Ben Simmons for criss-sake, I've taken profits on with the stuff I don't cherish as much and am more than free-rolling at this point.

[boxbuster7]

One thing that people need to remember is that, no matter how much research you do on your own, you can never eliminate risk. It'll always remain. And the market of today can easily be completely different from the market of yesterday or tomorrow.

And never put your complete trust into someone else....especially someone who joined the hobby during the pandemic.

I tell people that I am in the business of calculated risk. There is no such thing as a "sure thing." But when you do your own research, you are making educated guesses that tip the odds in your favor.

As you said Injuries are unpredictable a lot of the time. Or even steroids or other things...I took a huge hit on a few players in the last year.

But I was smart and diversified and am willing to sell for a loss instead of "holding the bag"

I find most people are too lazy to put in the amount of work that I put into cards. I pride myself on the amount of research I do. I also love the whole game of "prospecting." And if it isn't something you love, then you won't be good at it.

[BlockShotStop]

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

[hermanotarjeta]

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

I prefer the bois who invested because of that, stay out of the hobby.

[tjforce]

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

I've said it before, for every purchase I make, I turn down about 20 other things I consider.

The whole thing was just the perfect storm for "knowing just enough to be dangerous"

It's easy to think you know a lot about sports. A lot people collected car ds at some point in their lives. It's easy to understand grading and Pop reports at a high level. But it's tough to live through the cyclical nature of this hobby, especially if you haven't experienced it before.

[hermanotarjeta]

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

Are you kidding?

There are some small business owners who actually bought lambos, real lambos, with their relief fund money that was supposed to go to their employees.

It was probabaly one of the most corrupt “free money” grabs in the history of America, and many people got away with it.

[tjforce]

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

'Stimulus' by itself is an incomplete answer.

Things started heading up well before the pandemic. I remember when the pandemic hit and people were panic selling because they thought it would be the crash.

But if the stimulus money did have a big impact, it wasn't necessarily because everyone who got a check spent it directly on cards, it was because it was all getting pumped back into the system, and EVERYTHING, went up. So if you had stocks, crypto, NFTs, cards, rolexs... whatever, you were blowing up. There was so much liquidity compared to where the market used to be.

[eastbayak]

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

People still are!

[tjforce]

People still are!

I've paid more in commission fees this week!

[eastbayak]

I've paid more in commission fees this week!

Killing it!!

[Ericc5Bears]

literally every player had an insane peak during the covid bubble.

Bol Bol was one of the most lmao players who got hyped, right behind THT.

Trae Young was pretty hyped and never lived up to it.

Anfernee Simons got really hyped for seemingly no reason.

Lamelo hasn't lived up to the hype but he's been injured so hard to evaluate.

Honestly, not a single player besides Luka has lived up to the hype and prices.

I'd say shai and tatum also lived up to the hype. Tatum is a bit more debatable since he was already really good, but at the peak he was still just a solid all-star level player. I think him making the jump to a superstar on a team that will likely go to the finals 2 straight years counts as living up to the hype.

[tjforce]

I'd say shai and tatum also lived up to the hype. Tatum is a bit more debatable since he was already really good, but at the peak he was still just a solid all-star level player. I think him making the jump to a superstar on a team that will likely go to the finals 2 straight years counts as living up to the hype.

It's interesting to see all the Tatum-Luka comparisons right now.

One has better numbers, one has more success. They both have 1st team All NBA nods. Neither has an MVP or a championship.

Could possibly be the debate going forward.

[duron]

Really like this thread. Of all the bubble-specific things that affected card prices, this one is more cyclical and I'm sure it'll keep happening. I remember Vince Carter and Steve Francis cards going for what was top dollar at the time. My LCS guy was "schooling" me a little while ago about how buying rookies was a better long term play than retired HOFers. Don't get me wrong, do it for the fun, but how many times does history need to repeat itself?

LCS guy was probably well aware, not that he needed a history lesson.

Or maybe I’m just as stupid as he is.

[Ericc5Bears]

It's interesting to see all the Tatum-Luka comparisons right now.

One has better numbers, one has more success. They both have 1st team All NBA nods. Neither has an MVP or a championship.

Could possibly be the debate going forward.

Love Tatum but I think Luka is a step above him as a player. You swap Tatum for Luka on the Celtics and they're almost certainly on their way to back to back titles.

[NSGJT]

I'd say shai and tatum also lived up to the hype. Tatum is a bit more debatable since he was already really good, but at the peak he was still just a solid all-star level player. I think him making the jump to a superstar on a team that will likely go to the finals 2 straight years counts as living up to the hype.

How is Tatum more debatable than Shai lol? SGA has had one good random year, this year. Tatum who I think is overrated and possibly a fraud STILL after that 50 point game 7, as a Celtics fan...

He still has been good for multiple years, been to the finals, now is going to the finals again probably (fav), and was top 4-5 in MVP voting. Beyond this all anyway, I don't think Doncic/Tatum/SGA, Trae/Zion/Ball/Morant would have ever and can never live up to the hype. It was never a possibility beyond astronomical odds. The market was pumped and the bar is set at literally Bron/Jordan talent and fame.

[NSGJT]

Love Tatum but I think Luka is a step above him as a player. You swap Tatum for Luka on the Celtics and they're almost certainly on their way to back to back titles.

Yeah again, this is so easy to say. And I'm not biased towards Tatum at all, I think he's a (semi) fraud. I think he's walmart Kobe with a bit of difference in his game. But Doncic has...done what exactly?

He's so f'ing good but he's not even making the damn playoffs? I like Luka too, don't hate him. But I think people are still in HYPE mode, overrating the balls off these prospects ironically within this thread too. These dudes have proven nothing. People just assume there's going to be a next LeBron, KD, Curry. Well there might not be. There might just be a period of lower top end talent in the league for 10-15 years.

I think Giannis, Doncic, Booker, Tatum, Ball, Zion obviously/injury, Trae, Poole, Edwards, etc. Are ALL overrated. And these are the guys that didn't flat out bust like a Fultz/other Ball, Dennis Smith, etc.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Love Tatum but I think Luka is a step above him as a player. You swap Tatum for Luka on the Celtics and they're almost certainly on their way to back to back titles.

This is just flat out wrong.

[miscus555]

I guess people get bored collecting legitimate goats and their favorite teams/players. And if you happen to come across so things to spec on in your travels, great. That’s what I used to do and continue to do. I could never find myself hunting down unproven players unless they hit me in the face first.
I don’t really have any sympathy for people who are currently swimming in ultra modern they bought at the height. That flooded grading companies to the point of having them shut down. If you are always impulsive you are eventually going to fail because you will make a couple bad decisions along the way.
If I had 2k to spend on cards, I’m not spending it to rip tons of modern packs, I’m spending it on a player(s) whose name will be known for ages through multiple generations. Or I’m spending it on unopened product that has said player(s) in it.

[tjforce]

I guess people get bored collecting legitimate goats and their favorite teams/players. And if you happen to come across so things to spec on in your travels, great. That’s what I used to do and continue to do. I could never find myself hunting down unproven players unless they hit me in the face first.
I don’t really have any sympathy for people who are currently swimming in ultra modern they bought at the height. That flooded grading companies to the point of having them shut down. If you are always impulsive you are eventually going to fail because you will make a couple bad decisions along the way.
If I had 2k to spend on cards, I’m not spending it to rip tons of modern packs, I’m spending it on a player(s) whose name will be known for ages through multiple generations. Or I’m spending it on unopened product that has said player(s) in it.

A couple things...

-People like to gamble. And it's fun as hell to be in on the ground floor for a guy. The issue is if the ground floor is already sky high, you may be in trouble.

-People for for hype. If Mahomes can come out of nowhere and throw 50 touchdowns after playing just 1 game the prior year, then why can't Zach Wilson do the game after a year where the MILF rumors broke?

[miscus555]

And I think that's the ultimate problem that's going to hurt the hobby.

Folks that have been around for a long time that were in early and knew what they were doing are still ahead (especially if they took some profits when things really got out of hand). Does it bother me that a LeBron I paid $400 for years ago is only doing $2,000 now, when it was doing probably $8,000 at it's peak? No, not really.

But the person who paid $11K for the PSA 10 Durant Rookie BASE, and has watched it lose 90%+ of it's value... that person is burnt and they'll never get that money back. Now expand that to Zion, Ja, Trae, Simmons, Lance, Mac Jones, etc.


Once I saw prices go crazy in 2020-2021 and you couldn’t get a card graded without waiting a year, I literally bought cards 2 times….2 topps chrome Jimmy G rookies for $10 per, and I found a couple topps heritage baseball blasters in target that I bought.

I sold some Jordan and kobe stuff when last dance came out and pretty much sold basketball 90’s 2nd-3rd tier lots I had hanging around like chrome and ex2000. I didn’t have time to sell more so basically no time to be a flipper but I seriously just held during that time. May have missed out on $$$$ from selling more but definitely didn’t lose from buying

[razorsharp]

I think Anthony Edwards is ahead schedule in his development but even his prices have tanked. Performance doesn't even matter (to a certain extent) right now.

[Ericc5Bears]

This is just flat out wrong.

I'm sure based on your username that is a totally unbiased take

[Ericc5Bears]

How is Tatum more debatable than Shai lol? SGA has had one good random year, this year. Tatum who I think is overrated and possibly a fraud STILL after that 50 point game 7, as a Celtics fan...

He still has been good for multiple years, been to the finals, now is going to the finals again probably (fav), and was top 4-5 in MVP voting. Beyond this all anyway, I don't think Doncic/Tatum/SGA, Trae/Zion/Ball/Morant would have ever and can never live up to the hype. It was never a possibility beyond astronomical odds. The market was pumped and the bar is set at literally Bron/Jordan talent and fame.

You missed the point. At the peak of the "hype" in the card market (late 2020), tatum was a 21 year all star averaging 23-7 on a good team and had already been the leading scorer on an ECF team at 19 years old. That meant his hype level was incredibly high and for him to "live up to" the hype, he would need to be a top 5ish player in the league and probably win a ring. Shai on the other hand was a late lottery pick who looked really good his first 2 years in the league but his hype level was more of "this guy can maybe be a solid all-star level player some day". I don't think even his biggest believers could've imagined within a few years he would average 31-6-5. So yes tatum is definitely better than Shai, but shai lived up to his hype more.

[Ericc5Bears]

Yeah again, this is so easy to say. And I'm not biased towards Tatum at all, I think he's a (semi) fraud. I think he's walmart Kobe with a bit of difference in his game. But Doncic has...done what exactly?

He's so f'ing good but he's not even making the damn playoffs? I like Luka too, don't hate him. But I think people are still in HYPE mode, overrating the balls off these prospects ironically within this thread too. These dudes have proven nothing. People just assume there's going to be a next LeBron, KD, Curry. Well there might not be. There might just be a period of lower top end talent in the league for 10-15 years.

I think Giannis, Doncic, Booker, Tatum, Ball, Zion obviously/injury, Trae, Poole, Edwards, etc. Are ALL overrated. And these are the guys that didn't flat out bust like a Fultz/other Ball, Dennis Smith, etc.

Literally less than a year ago averaged 32-10-6 in the playoffs and eliminated the 64 win Suns on the way to the WCF lmao

[tjforce]

Literally less than a year ago averaged 32-10-6 in the playoffs and eliminated the 64 win Suns on the way to the WCF lmao

Add to that 4 1st team all NBAs.

I keep saying it, if he's 27-28 and doesnt have an MVP or Championship, then it's really time to start asking if he's the generational talent we thought, or if he's just another stat guy.

But he's 24 and has built quite the resume, even if it's not quite what some thought it'd be.

[jcardstore]

Add to that 4 1st team all NBAs.

I keep saying it, if he's 27-28 and doesnt have an MVP or Championship, then it's really time to start asking if he's the generational talent we thought, or if he's just another stat guy.

But he's 24 and has built quite the resume, even if it's not quite what some thought it'd be.

This is especially hilarious considering everyone thought he was too fat and slow to be an NBA star pre draft

[Spacemanspif]

Yeah again, this is so easy to say. And I'm not biased towards Tatum at all, I think he's a (semi) fraud. I think he's walmart Kobe with a bit of difference in his game. But Doncic has...done what exactly?

He's so f'ing good but he's not even making the damn playoffs? I like Luka too, don't hate him. But I think people are still in HYPE mode, overrating the balls off these prospects ironically within this thread too. These dudes have proven nothing. People just assume there's going to be a next LeBron, KD, Curry. Well there might not be. There might just be a period of lower top end talent in the league for 10-15 years.

I think Giannis, Doncic, Booker, Tatum, Ball, Zion obviously/injury, Trae, Poole, Edwards, etc. Are ALL overrated. And these are the guys that didn't flat out bust like a Fultz/other Ball, Dennis Smith, etc.

Not to pile on, but you're arguing against how prospecting works. Which is fine if you would rather "invest" in established stars with near-complete resumes, but the assumption in those cases is that it's all already built in to the price. The whole idea of prospecting is that you're getting in early when the guy is cheap, and reaping the benefits when he pans out. But as you've mentioned in other posts, the whole industry got ahead of itself and so people were paying ridiculous premiums for guys that had zero chance of actually becoming a superstar. It also daisy-chained into pumps of 90s junk slabs, NFTs, non-sport, and now vintage. Which again, you are well aware of. Prospecting can still be profitable, it's just a lot harder these days because of the buy-in price.

Also as BO's resident "lol look at that idiot collecting Shai cards" guy, I think he's surpassed whatever "hype" there was for him, because there really wasn't any. For the longest time, I was grabbing cards for 1/5th to 1/10th the price of guys like Trae or Morant. Now I think his cards are generally worth as much or more than those guys. Mostly because they've come crashing down, but also because I feel like his growth has been quite a bit more organic due to the lack of influencers / hype.

[tjforce]

This is especially hilarious considering everyone thought he was too fat and slow to be an NBA star pre draft

There's 2 vantage points though with you can look at Luka:

1. His 2018 draft 3rd overall spot, where he was picked behind Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley. He's definitely achieved from this starting point, or

2. The view after his 2nd season, when some of his fans/collectors/investors (not all, just some) started comparing him to LeBron. He's fallen short of that nearly impossible feat thus far, but not even as far as some would like you to believe.

[ninjacookies]

https://static.casino.guru/pict/154302/Big-Bass-Bonanza.png?timestamp=1653449467000&imageDataId=219226&width=320&height=247


$7 TJ Warren flu game 6th year 'Pacers rc' pink ice BINs.


Take me back.


https://media.tenor.com/ZgbrKb4gPE0AAAAM/thinking-remind.gif

[1980bust]

Before bubble: Ignore the noise, buy what you like.

During bubble: Ignore the noise, buy what you like.

Post-bubble: Ignore the noise, buy what you like.

Still here, still enjoying the hobby :)

That said, I've always made it a rule to avoid bass because, well, they're bass. That served me pretty well.

[CitizunKane]

TJ Warren . . . oh my. I recall after a few big games in the bubble I looked in my commons pile and found three of his base Prizm rookies (2014-15, I think?). Listed them for $99 OBO. Sold instantly.

I raise a glass to you, my TJ Warren buyer, wherever you may be tonight. I hope the past three years have brought you good health and happiness. I took that money, along with thousands more, and bought Topps Project 2020 cards (which I recently sold for around 7 cents on the dollar). Circle of life. Nature heals itself.

[ninjacookies]

Slangin $15 2nd year Good Hair bass to thirsty Balenciaga opportunists made me feel like Lloyd Christmas for a good stretch.

https://y.yarn.co/14b340eb-1442-4146-b6a3-37ae5640d3a5_text.gif




https://media.tenor.com/DtEHJJ45tNMAAAAM/blind-kid.gif

[NSGJT]

Literally less than a year ago averaged 32-10-6 in the playoffs and eliminated the 64 win Suns on the way to the WCF lmao

So he's made the WCF and lost it once in 5 years, has zero MVPs, and just finished a season where he wasn't remotely considered for the award and his team didn't even make the playoffs in a league where it's make-a-wish and almost everyone makes it. Got it. That's lmao territory indeed.

And I'm not a Doncic hater, I like the player. More so I'm talking about delusional morons who bought into his cards and already are taking fat Ls who are probably coping and smoking hopium for the unrealistic, astronomical bar he has to cross.

[tjforce]

TJ Warren . . . oh my. I recall after a few big games in the bubble I looked in my commons pile and found three of his base Prizm rookies (2014-15, I think?). Listed them for $99 OBO. Sold instantly.

I raise a glass to you, my TJ Warren buyer, wherever you may be tonight. I hope the past three years have brought you good health and happiness. I took that money, along with thousands more, and bought Topps Project 2020 cards (which I recently sold for around 7 cents on the dollar). Circle of life. Nature heals itself.


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230516/371928c67ff11f2dd850b24414a736fb.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Slangin $15 2nd year Good Hair bass to thirsty Balenciaga opportunists made me feel like Lloyd Christmas for a good stretch.

https://y.yarn.co/14b340eb-1442-4146-b6a3-37ae5640d3a5_text.gif




https://media.tenor.com/DtEHJJ45tNMAAAAM/blind-kid.gif


Ahh. Those were the days.

I’ll tell the local children, who are too young to remember, all about it. And about how a new era shall rise again, once the hype beasts grow up to have well paying careers….. at the fast food joints they once abandoned.

Til then…. Hoard all the Melendez Brothers bass you can!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ericc5Bears]

So he's made the WCF and lost it once in 5 years, has zero MVPs, and just finished a season where he wasn't remotely considered for the award and his team didn't even make the playoffs in a league where it's make-a-wish and almost everyone makes it. Got it. That's lmao territory indeed.

And I'm not a Doncic hater, I like the player. More so I'm talking about delusional morons who bought into his cards and already are taking fat Ls who are probably coping and smoking hopium for the unrealistic, astronomical bar he has to cross.

If you bought his cards anytime before mid-late 2020 you're still up, probably big. If you bought any time after that you're down. The second statement also applies to literally every single player in the NBA outside of maybe like 3-5 guys.

[ninjacookies]

Til then…. Hoard all the Melendez Brothers bass you can!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A Sam Vincent feat. Ahegao MJ heirloom for every generation.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/385602870230?hash=item59c7b8dbd6:g:G4wAAOSwnChkP90E&amdata=enc%3AAQAIAAAAwBFFEQCULsdrACygrI2BsRzY5LfhecAmrpvOh7mMFoQoU6X%2FPeGacYqsjIi%2FKJRCXccAIuncpjKYhTfG8xn9gYgZ%2F1XTDOdnC2h%2BOwmJT8tbTJmS%2F6W1OKrJ5DZFHwlFFl%2Fc4NietiPN1zd%2FwQKTwkBhOXegHMpPg14xe9%2BcDnUzdbqg59BfM4i5YCX9BfFwj2Ix1Wbg86ZJeltSIX0EKtM%2FBRX9qH6BeFNSOsdfqL0%2BQw7dPsDBWsR85EdEwqmzlw%3D%3D%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR_yAu66EYg

It's only right.

[NSGJT]

Not to pile on, but you're arguing against how prospecting works. Which is fine if you would rather "invest" in established stars with near-complete resumes, but the assumption in those cases is that it's all already built in to the price. The whole idea of prospecting is that you're getting in early when the guy is cheap, and reaping the benefits when he pans out. But as you've mentioned in other posts, the whole industry got ahead of itself and so people were paying ridiculous premiums for guys that had zero chance of actually becoming a superstar. It also daisy-chained into pumps of 90s junk slabs, NFTs, non-sport, and now vintage. Which again, you are well aware of. Prospecting can still be profitable, it's just a lot harder these days because of the buy-in price.

Also as BO's resident "lol look at that idiot collecting Shai cards" guy, I think he's surpassed whatever "hype" there was for him, because there really wasn't any. For the longest time, I was grabbing cards for 1/5th to 1/10th the price of guys like Trae or Morant. Now I think his cards are generally worth as much or more than those guys. Mostly because they've come crashing down, but also because I feel like his growth has been quite a bit more organic due to the lack of influencers / hype.

That's fine I don't consider your post piling on at all. I stand by what I said. I think Luka is a good player, top 10 in the league at this point sure thing, scores, making all-star games, all-nba teams. Cool.

But the buy-in price was never cheap for him. And then the bubble immediately happened. So it's not all about Luka Doncic the prospect, his prices should probably be cheaper right now than they were when he was a rookie honestly. Because let's be realistic (anyone who isn't invested can) he hasn't won an MVP or came close to a title in 5 years now.

Are we projecting the Mavs to be good in 2023? No. He's very likely not winning the MVP and/or title next year. He's under contract until 2026. So yeah, I think we can both agree the bar set is completely unrealistic and unreasonable, but it is what it is. That's the bar. The way his hype and prices are set, Doncic has to be the next Jordan/Bron level GOAT level player. It's akin to buying MSFT at 600 dollars a share right now.

It's not mutually exclusive that Luka Doncic is a really good player AND is still not living up to his hype and never will (97-99.9% odds)

[drobfan8]

These guys are not the first and won't be the last young guns who will have their prices blasted once supply and demand sorts itself out.

Didn't people pay $2k for Ben Gordon and Darius Miles Rookies?

Yikes.

The Hobby will keep kicking on. Because there are still so many that love it.

Zion still has a ton of potential.
Luka, well, he is still God and gonna take over the league.

Ja is too thug for my liking.

Even if Tatum wins a title, he's up against the likes of Kobe as far as Hobby pricing goes. D. Wade anyone?

There has been way too many dollarydoos spent. And even when we talk about tanking prices, there is still absurd amounts of money being spent or "spent" every day on ebay, goldin, PWCC.

[NSGJT]

If you bought his cards anytime before mid-late 2020 you're still up, probably big. If you bought any time after that you're down. The second statement also applies to literally every single player in the NBA outside of maybe like 3-5 guys.

https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/basketball-cards/2018-panini-prizm/luka-doncic/values/2673471#g=10

Yeah if you bought 1st quarter 2020 you'd be roughly even. If you bought sooner you'd still be up right. If you bought later than this point you'd be down or down tremendous.

My point is that I can say Luka will never live up to the hype and I'll very, very, very likely be right even by saying this absolute statement about something that hasn't played out. Because the expectations and bar set are ridiculously high. People are mentioning Shai or Garland, which is totally different. You can buy in super low there even during the market boom. With Doncic, yeah if you bought pre-boom like literally anything, you could have sold for a nice to great profit during the peak or on the way down, or even right now.

But miss me with pretending like he's on track to live up to hype remotely. He just hasn't busted out completely or been a disappointment. He's still MILES away from coming close to what's needed for his cards to sustain value, and that's on top of assuming the market is even close to what it is now in 5-10 years for cards.

[fabiani12333]

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

Most of those people saw an opportunity to make easy money investing in trading cards. They didn't know the history of the hobby and how unprecedented the market was during the pandemic. They got tricked out of their money by other opportunists. They don't deserve to have extra money if they don't do their due diligence when investing. Taking investing advice from influencers has got to be one of the dumbest things in the history of this hobby.

[fabiani12333]

FOMO and a predisposition to risk taking and gambling have got to be the biggest elements to why individuals spend a lot of money on prospects and unproven young players.

The whole point of prospecting is to buy at a relatively low price with the chance of making a profit from a player becoming a star. If the prospect is immediately priced at GOAT levels, there is no upside -- you are guaranteed to lose.

I think the only athlete who has actually lived up to the prospect hype in recent years has been Shohei Ohtani. And it took him a few years and Tommy John surgery to finally break out.

[fabiani12333]

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

Don't feel sorry for them. They wanted to make easy money and got burned. It was probably a lot of young males who are clueless about how the world works. Maybe they learned a valuable lesson. Maybe they'll dedicate themselves to learning how to invest wisely. No more get rich quick schemes.

[tjforce]

A Sam Vincent feat. Ahegao MJ heirloom for every generation.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/385602870230?hash=item59c7b8dbd6:g:G4wAAOSwnChkP90E&amdata=enc%3AAQAIAAAAwBFFEQCULsdrACygrI2BsRzY5LfhecAmrpvOh7mMFoQoU6X%2FPeGacYqsjIi%2FKJRCXccAIuncpjKYhTfG8xn9gYgZ%2F1XTDOdnC2h%2BOwmJT8tbTJmS%2F6W1OKrJ5DZFHwlFFl%2Fc4NietiPN1zd%2FwQKTwkBhOXegHMpPg14xe9%2BcDnUzdbqg59BfM4i5YCX9BfFwj2Ix1Wbg86ZJeltSIX0EKtM%2FBRX9qH6BeFNSOsdfqL0%2BQw7dPsDBWsR85EdEwqmzlw%3D%3D%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR_yAu66EYg

It's only right.

Who the hell is still paying $30 for that?

[tjforce]

Don't feel sorry for them. They wanted to make easy money and got burned. It was probably a lot of young males who are clueless about how the world works. Maybe they learned a valuable lesson. Maybe they'll dedicate themselves to learning how to invest wisely. No more get rich quick schemes.

Unfortunately, that's probably what a lot of them thought they were doing.

They spent the time listening (and paying for) SCI, or whatever other influencer they followed. They bought into box breaks they thought had a good ROI. They traveled to shows.

Some of them were complete fools who just wanted to get one over on everyone else, but some were also normal folks who thought they were getting in the right place at the right time, but it turns out they were getting in the right place at the wrong time.

[fabiani12333]

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

A lot of liquidity was injected into the financial markets during 2020 and 2021. The money supply dramatically increased during that time -- roughly 25% in 2020 and 12% in 2021. The hobby was a benefactor of that. People also had more disposable cash to play with due to the shutdowns and stimulus.

[ninjacookies]

Who the hell is still paying $30 for that?


https://y.yarn.co/b176f735-65ae-4201-83de-54067789c23c_text.gif

https://worldstar.boards.net/

[Nomad]

Who the hell is still paying $30 for that?

yung dolph still got some fans, right.

[jcardstore]

There's 2 vantage points though with you can look at Luka:

1. His 2018 draft 3rd overall spot, where he was picked behind Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley. He's definitely achieved from this starting point, or

2. The view after his 2nd season, when some of his fans/collectors/investors (not all, just some) started comparing him to LeBron. He's fallen short of that nearly impossible feat thus far, but not even as far as some would like you to believe.

If you look at his body of NBA work he’s not far off. LeBron didn’t get 1st team until his 3rd season. This also doesn’t include Lukas ACB titles, MVP, and 1st team

Through 5 years:
LeBron - 2x 1st team, 2x 2nd team - Luka 4x 1st team
LeBron obviously crushes him in playoff record and appearances and gets major credit for dragging the sorriest finals team of all time to get clubbed by the Spurs… but Luka has dragged his team to a WCF and has some big playoff moments also.

Luka through 28 playoff games - 32/9/8 on 47/37/69
Bron through 60 playoff games (wow) - don’t feel like calculating the exact numbers but they’re worse across the board.

Yea obviously LeBron is LeBron but if you were to take their names away their 1st 5 years of resume are pretty damn close.

It’s insane to me people think he hasn’t or won’t live up to the hype when he has so far passed it already.

Covid price bubble didn’t change his hype as a basketball player at all just rising tide lifts all boats type thing for his prices.

I feel like most people don’t actually remember the Luka discussion pre draft and year 1 and his year 2+ hype he’s absolutely lived up to. Obviously this year was super disappointing but let’s not be prisoners on the moment

[Mikeh6480]

Ben Simmons cards probably went down during Covid!

[Chris P]

So he's made the WCF and lost it once in 5 years, has zero MVPs, and just finished a season where he wasn't remotely considered for the award and his team didn't even make the playoffs in a league where it's make-a-wish and almost everyone makes it. Got it. That's lmao territory indeed.

And I'm not a Doncic hater, I like the player. More so I'm talking about delusional morons who bought into his cards and already are taking fat Ls who are probably coping and smoking hopium for the unrealistic, astronomical bar he has to cross.

So 4 1st team all nba is nothing? I'm not disagreeing with you that his cards are priced like he's a multi time champion/mvp..but 4 1st team all nba in your 1st 5 seasons isnt nothing in my opinion

[Bosoxfan5990]

I'm sure based on your username that is a totally unbiased take

PGs are overrated in today's NBA unless you shoot like Steph Curry. I would take an elite Forward over an elite Guard on my team any day and twice on Sunday.

[hauntedcomputer]

This is such a strange hobby.

I don't know any bass fishermen who talk about how much the value of their boat has changed or whether the fish they caught have added up to the value of the boat.

I stand by my belief the hobby is largely just the refuge of degenerate gamblers hoping to strike it rich, interspersed with occasional fetishists who have a certain type of OCD.

Just because you win the lottery doesn't mean you weren't an idiot for having played.

[YayNJ]

The main problem with "prospecting" in basketball over the last few years on here, IG, youtube, etc... is that the people supposedly prospecting know little to nothing about actual basketball.

It's the same with soccer. Some of the takes I read online by people that have clearly never even been to a soccer match before are incredible, and these are supposed 'influencers' on the hobby.

[pmatic]

But miss me with pretending like he's on track to live up to hype remotely. He just hasn't busted out completely or been a disappointment. He's still MILES away from coming close to what's needed for his cards to sustain value, and that's on top of assuming the market is even close to what it is now in 5-10 years for cards.

I agree with this. I think there were people projecting him as the next Michael Jordan which was absurd then and even look more ridiculous now.


Luka would have to not only continue his All NBA journey but also win championships and league MVP's and most importantly have a significant role in boosting NBA television ratings a feat only a very few of players have successfully managed in league history (MJ, Kobe, Lebron, Curry).

[jcardstore]

I agree with this. I think there were people projecting him as the next Michael Jordan which was absurd then and even look more ridiculous now.


Luka would have to not only continue his All NBA journey but also win championships and league MVP's and most importantly have a significant role in boosting NBA television ratings a feat only a very few of players have successfully managed in league history (MJ, Kobe, Lebron, Curry).

What makes you think he couldn’t continue?

Players with at least 4x 1st team all NBA in their first 5 seasons. (Post merger)

Duncan
Luka
Bird

That’s it. MJ had 3 and an MVP. Bron had 2. Hakeem and Durant both had 3.

He’s arguably had one of the best 1st 5 year stretches of any player in NBA history.

Add in that none of those players besides LeBron had terrible teams like Luka has.

Bird wins 2 titles in his 1st 5 seasons and the Celtics are stacked. Duncan wins a title in his 1st 5 on a stacked Spurs team.

[jcardstore]

Luka and MJ are the only players to average at least 30ppg in the playoffs more than 2x in their 1st 5 seasons.

Jordan did it 4x, Luka 3x. TMac and Mitchell did it twice and then everyone else only did it once.

What more do y’all expect him to do? Sounds like you’re the ones with the unrealistic expectations

[KhalDrogo]

Luka and MJ are the only players to average at least 30ppg in the playoffs more than 2x in their 1st 5 seasons.

Jordan did it 4x, Luka 3x. TMac and Mitchell did it twice and then everyone else only did it once.

What more do y’all expect him to do? Sounds like you’re the ones with the unrealistic expectations
But he couldn’t make the playoffs with the great Dorian Finney-Smith as his #2 for most of the season!

[jcardstore]

But he couldn’t make the playoffs with the great Dorian Finney-Smith as his #2 for most of the season!

Very few teams in NBA history have done a worse job of surrounding their star player with talent than the Mavs with Luka

[pmatic]

What makes you think he couldn’t continue?

Players with at least 4x 1st team all NBA in their first 5 seasons. (Post merger)

Duncan
Luka
Bird

That’s it. MJ had 3 and an MVP. Bron had 2. Hakeem and Durant both had 3.

He’s arguably had one of the best 1st 5 year stretches of any player in NBA history.

Add in that none of those players besides LeBron had terrible teams like Luka has.

Bird wins 2 titles in his 1st 5 seasons and the Celtics are stacked. Duncan wins a title in his 1st 5 on a stacked Spurs team.


That's an extremely low bar if all Luka has are 1st All NBA selections especially when you're putting him right next to THE Michael Jordan. I feel like the second paragraph of my post was not acknowledged which is where I'm coming from. The MJ-Luka takes has always been preposterous in my humble opinion. There are plenty of great players who were regular 1st team All NBA invites but that doesn't mean they are or should be in the MJ trajectory.



In MJ's 3rd season (not counting his sophomore since he was injured) He was clearly the best player in the league.


In the same season he won:

All Star MVP and Dunk Contest
Defensive player of the year
Regular Season MVP
Scoring Season leader
All NBA 1st team
All NBA Defensive 1st team- Still the only player to win a scoring title and DPOY


I could go on here but if All-NBA trajectory for Luka is all we have, then he's trailing by a country mile.

[pmatic]

Luka and MJ are the only players to average at least 30ppg in the playoffs more than 2x in their 1st 5 seasons.



Nothing against Luka but the scoring boost in the Silver era puts a taint in some of these scoring records.


I used to lose my mind when somebody scored 50 now I don’t even bat an eye.

[jcardstore]

That's an extremely low bar if all Luka has are 1st All NBA selections especially when you're putting him right next to THE Michael Jordan. I feel like the second paragraph of my post was not acknowledged which is where I'm coming from. The MJ-Luka takes has always been preposterous in my humble opinion. There are plenty of great players who were regular 1st team All NBA invites but that doesn't mean they are or should be in the MJ trajectory.



In MJ's 3rd season (not counting his sophomore since he was injured) He was clearly the best player in the league.


In the same season he won:

All Star MVP and Dunk Contest
Defensive player of the year
Regular Season MVP
Scoring Season leader
All NBA 1st team
All NBA Defensive 1st team- Still the only player to win a scoring title and DPOY


I could go on here but if All-NBA trajectory for Luka is all we have, then he's trailing by a country mile.

So terrible that he doesn’t have as many accolades as the greatest player in NBA history yet :cry:

It’s actually comical to read posts like this.

Basically nobody was saying he was MJ, and the very very small minority that were, were clueless anyways. I challenge you to go find the posts here where people said Luka was going to be as good or better than MJ. Quote them all here.

But let’s just pretend MJ doesn’t exist what other players have a resume that stacks up with Luka? They’re all, all time greats.

[pmatic]

So terrible that he doesn’t have as many accolades as the greatest player in NBA history yet :cry:

I don't think I went that far. Just putting it all in the right perspective.



Basically nobody was saying he was MJ, and the very very small minority that were, were clueless anyways. I challenge you to go find the posts here where people said Luka was going to be as good or better than MJ. Quote them all here.

But let’s just pretend MJ doesn’t exist what other players have a resume that stacks up with Luka? They’re all, all time greats

I could but I'd rather not since it's a slippery slope.


Luka's still on the right track to become an All Time Great IMO but it would take a huge shift in his career if he wants to be in the same breathe as the Curry, Bird, Duncan etc.


Right now, it seems more likely he'll be in the same path as Dirk Nowitzki, Charles Barkley and Karl Malone types. A trade to another team could change his fortune though.

[jcardstore]

I don't think I went that far. Just putting it all in the right perspective.



I could but I'd rather not since it's a slippery slope.


Luka's still on the right track to become an All Time Great IMO but it would take a huge shift in his career if he wants to be in the same breathe as the Curry, Bird, Duncan etc.


Right now, it seems more likely he'll be in the same path as Dirk Nowitzki, Charles Barkley and Karl Malone types. A trade to another team could change his fortune though.

Based on what, though? He’s a heliocentric primary ball handler, offensive engine… whatever you want to call it. Non of the guys you listed were that.

What’s the slippery slope?

[pmatic]

Based on what, though? He’s a heliocentric primary ball handler, offensive engine… whatever you want to call it. Non of the guys you listed were that.

What’s the slippery slope?

Heliocentric primary ball handler, offensive engine means what in the grand scheme of things? A James Harden type?


It absolutely means nothing if you're not winning titles in this league.

[Scottish Punk]

Luka is still only 24. Most of the all time greats won their first championships at age 26-27. Luka still has time on his side. If we are looking back 4 years from now and he is still just accumulating stats, but no post season success, than his legacy will be very different.

[KhalDrogo]

The MJ-Luka takes has always been preposterous in my humble opinion.
Nobody here has been calling Luka the next MJ. Nobody is the next MJ. Kobe has been the only player in the same mold, and that’s almost 40 years later.

You’ve only been here two months, so I wouldn’t expect you to have a good grasp of the board’s feelings on Luka.

[jcardstore]

Heliocentric primary ball handler, offensive engine means what in the grand scheme of things? A James Harden type?


It absolutely means nothing if you're not winning titles in this league.

You’re moving the goal posts.

How many players have won a title as the teams best player in the first 5 seasons? I already shared the list BTW and neither MJ nor LeBron did it. The guys who did were all on stacked teams

[NSGJT]

Very few teams in NBA history have done a worse job of surrounding their star player with talent than the Mavs with Luka

I'm going to respond to basically everything above as succinctly as I can:

1. Comparing Luka to LeBron and claiming, factually, that Luka has more All-NBAs than LeBron did at this point therefore xyz Luka is good! Proves my point for me. F--- All-NBAs awards then. Large part popularity contest on top of being talented. LeBron James took a bum a- roster to the finals within a few years, as a young player. It's LeBron, yes, but this is the unrealistic bar that Luka needs to achieve. HOW GOOD are you? How do you IMPACT WINNING? That matters far more. Luka has zero rings and I think you can argue he has never once actually been a top 5 player in the league yet through 5 years in terms of that. Again I do not hate Luka at all, I like him actually. But he's more hype than substance at this point, let's all point to scoring cool then call him Kyrie/Westbrook so far and he's not coming close to "Card market" hype and yes it's not fair but ti's true.

2. Luka is under contract until 2027. He will be 29 years old if he plays out his contract in DAL and then becomes a free agent that next season during the season. So either the Mavs are constructing a championship roster or he's demanding a trade. Otherwise he will have 0 rings by his age 29 season. Once again, this is a huge problem because the hype was unsustainable to begin with at ~1000 dollars for a PSA 10 Silver Prizm rookie card PRE-covid boom right after he was drafted. Prices settled down to ~300-500 a card prior to the bubble market, but we're also still very likely inflated (significantly) at ~1200 per for the same card today. If the market never boomed most people would have lost money at this point "prospecting" the card. Broken even at best. For most of his cards probably.

3. Bird was drafted on a terrible team initially and turned them into a winner. The Celtics were 29-53 the year prior to drafting Bird. Then they were 61 wins and in the ECF in his rookie year, and won the finals in his 2nd year. Of course the team was better than the Mavs, but still, this is the problem. We're comparing Luka to LeBron, Bird, and Jordan.

Bro I don't care if he dropped 35 ppg in a season he's done NOTHING so far in terms of real legacy building. And this isn't an exercise in crapping on Luka I keep prefacing or explaining that I like him. The point is that the price to buy in was so stupidly high and it was even pre-covid, that he would never live up to it. He was a non-zero chance, and there's also a non-zero chance the Monstars will land on earth next season and play in the league.

Luka hasn't busted and he is good. So is Tatum. Neither have done anything yet. If Tatum wins a ring this season and carries the Celtics in specific games like he did game 7 last series, AND maybe wins another ring or two in the next 3-5 years then we're talking legacy. Doncic needs to get there. Unfortunately yes RINGS are a requirement here. Once again can anyone name a SINGLE player in the top 10 all-time who doesn't have a ring on his hand? Multiple rings probably? Can't think of a single guy anyone would realistically name. And that's the issue with Luka, situation and hasn't even come close, projections thus far aren't looking good outside of him demanding a trade.

[tjforce]

If you look at his body of NBA work he’s not far off. LeBron didn’t get 1st team until his 3rd season. This also doesn’t include Lukas ACB titles, MVP, and 1st team

Through 5 years:
LeBron - 2x 1st team, 2x 2nd team - Luka 4x 1st team
LeBron obviously crushes him in playoff record and appearances and gets major credit for dragging the sorriest finals team of all time to get clubbed by the Spurs… but Luka has dragged his team to a WCF and has some big playoff moments also.

Luka through 28 playoff games - 32/9/8 on 47/37/69
Bron through 60 playoff games (wow) - don’t feel like calculating the exact numbers but they’re worse across the board.

Yea obviously LeBron is LeBron but if you were to take their names away their 1st 5 years of resume are pretty damn close.

It’s insane to me people think he hasn’t or won’t live up to the hype when he has so far passed it already.

Covid price bubble didn’t change his hype as a basketball player at all just rising tide lifts all boats type thing for his prices.

I feel like most people don’t actually remember the Luka discussion pre draft and year 1 and his year 2+ hype he’s absolutely lived up to. Obviously this year was super disappointing but let’s not be prisoners on the moment

I agree with most all of this, but after what Brunson has done in New York this postseason, I don't think you can say Luka 'dragged' his team to the WCF. Lead....Took.... sure. But drag seems to imply he took a bunch of sorry bums with him. He might have been the leader, but they won 2 games without him in Rd 1, with Brunson scoring 31 and 41.

[NSGJT]

You’re moving the goal posts.

How many players have won a title as the teams best player in the first 5 seasons? I already shared the list BTW and neither MJ nor LeBron did it. The guys who did were all on stacked teams

LeBron James carried a roster that was worse than multiple of the Mavs rosters that Luka has been on to the NBA finals. He was in his 4th year, age 22 year. His second best player was Zyldrunas Illguskas. His 3rd best was your choice of a bench player on most teams.

Are you a Mavs fan? Have you bought Luka cards? Honest question, you sound very biased at this point. You're comparing f'ing Bron to Luka, Bird-Jordan-Bron to Luka. Dude Luka has done NOTHING. He hasn't even been a top 5 player in the league once in 5 years imo, debatable but probably not. Are we serious here? Bron CARRIED a trash team to the finals. Luka's rosters have been better than that 06 Cavs team. He's not LeBron and that's fine, there's literally been TWO PLAYERS EVER of that caliber.

[pmatic]

You’re moving the goal posts.

How many players have won a title as the teams best player in the first 5 seasons? I already shared the list BTW and neither MJ nor LeBron did it. The guys who did were all on stacked teams

I'm not moving goal posts. I'm just following your trail of thoughts for the most part but just respond with facts.


I don't think winning titles should be linear, people have been using those takes on Chris Paul, Iverson, Nash. Each player has a different situation.


What I can tell you though is that Luka seems to be a very loyal player and the Mavs are also not in a position to A. Attract marquee types in Free Agency B. Have no leverage in trade discussions to turn that thing around.



He'll be 28 once he enters another free agency.

[pmatic]

LeBron James carried a roster that was worse than multiple of the Mavs rosters that Luka has been on to the NBA finals. He was in his 4th year, age 22 year. His second best player was Zyldrunas Illguskas. His 3rd best was your choice of a bench player on most teams.

Are you a Mavs fan? Have you bought Luka cards? Honest question, you sound very biased at this point. You're comparing f'ing Bron to Luka, Bird-Jordan-Bron to Luka. Dude Luka has done NOTHING. He hasn't even been a top 5 player in the league once in 5 years imo, debatable but probably not. Are we serious here? Bron CARRIED a trash team to the finals. Luka's rosters have been better than that 06 Cavs team. He's not LeBron and that's fine, there's literally been TWO PLAYERS EVER of that caliber.

Well said. Thank you.

[tjforce]

Luka is still only 24. Most of the all time greats won their first championships at age 26-27. Luka still has time on his side. If we are looking back 4 years from now and he is still just accumulating stats, but no post season success, than his legacy will be very different.

Bingo.

And his contemporaries Giannis and Jokic won their MVPs ages 25-27.

So the next 3 years will be the sweet spot to tell if he's still the most advanced player post-LeBron/Curry/Durant, or if he falls behind.

[pmatic]

I'm going to respond to basically everything above as succinctly as I can:

1. Comparing Luka to LeBron and claiming, factually, that Luka has more All-NBAs than LeBron did at this point therefore xyz Luka is good! Proves my point for me. F--- All-NBAs awards then. Large part popularity contest on top of being talented. LeBron James took a bum a- roster to the finals within a few years, as a young player. It's LeBron, yes, but this is the unrealistic bar that Luka needs to achieve. HOW GOOD are you? How do you IMPACT WINNING? That matters far more. Luka has zero rings and I think you can argue he has never once actually been a top 5 player in the league yet through 5 years in terms of that. Again I do not hate Luka at all, I like him actually. But he's more hype than substance at this point, let's all point to scoring cool then call him Kyrie/Westbrook so far and he's not coming close to "Card market" hype and yes it's not fair but ti's true.

2. Luka is under contract until 2027. He will be 29 years old if he plays out his contract in DAL and then becomes a free agent that next season during the season. So either the Mavs are constructing a championship roster or he's demanding a trade. Otherwise he will have 0 rings by his age 29 season. Once again, this is a huge problem because the hype was unsustainable to begin with at ~1000 dollars for a PSA 10 Silver Prizm rookie card PRE-covid boom right after he was drafted. Prices settled down to ~300-500 a card prior to the bubble market, but we're also still very likely inflated (significantly) at ~1200 per for the same card today. If the market never boomed most people would have lost money at this point "prospecting" the card. Broken even at best. For most of his cards probably.

3. Bird was drafted on a terrible team initially and turned them into a winner. The Celtics were 29-53 the year prior to drafting Bird. Then they were 61 wins and in the ECF in his rookie year, and won the finals in his 2nd year. Of course the team was better than the Mavs, but still, this is the problem. We're comparing Luka to LeBron, Bird, and Jordan.

Bro I don't care if he dropped 35 ppg in a season he's done NOTHING so far in terms of real legacy building. And this isn't an exercise in crapping on Luka I keep prefacing or explaining that I like him. The point is that the price to buy in was so stupidly high and it was even pre-covid, that he would never live up to it. He was a non-zero chance, and there's also a non-zero chance the Monstars will land on earth next season and play in the league.

Luka hasn't busted and he is good. So is Tatum. Neither have done anything yet. If Tatum wins a ring this season and carries the Celtics in specific games like he did game 7 last series, AND maybe wins another ring or two in the next 3-5 years then we're talking legacy. Doncic needs to get there. Unfortunately yes RINGS are a requirement here. Once again can anyone name a SINGLE player in the top 10 all-time who doesn't have a ring on his hand? Multiple rings probably? Can't think of a single guy anyone would realistically name. And that's the issue with Luka, situation and hasn't even come close, projections thus far aren't looking good outside of him demanding a trade.


All facts here too. I don't know why jcardstore loves using the All-NBA 1st team analogy team as his coup de grace on this discussion.

It's a great accomplishment but it absolutely means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Karl Malone had 11 of those too.

[jcardstore]

I'm going to respond to basically everything above as succinctly as I can:

1. Comparing Luka to LeBron and claiming, factually, that Luka has more All-NBAs than LeBron did at this point therefore xyz Luka is good! Proves my point for me. F--- All-NBAs awards then. Large part popularity contest on top of being talented. LeBron James took a bum a- roster to the finals within a few years, as a young player. It's LeBron, yes, but this is the unrealistic bar that Luka needs to achieve. HOW GOOD are you? How do you IMPACT WINNING? That matters far more. Luka has zero rings and I think you can argue he has never once actually been a top 5 player in the league yet through 5 years in terms of that. Again I do not hate Luka at all, I like him actually. But he's more hype than substance at this point, let's all point to scoring cool then call him Kyrie/Westbrook so far and he's not coming close to "Card market" hype and yes it's not fair but ti's true.

2. Luka is under contract until 2027. He will be 29 years old if he plays out his contract in DAL and then becomes a free agent that next season during the season. So either the Mavs are constructing a championship roster or he's demanding a trade. Otherwise he will have 0 rings by his age 29 season. Once again, this is a huge problem because the hype was unsustainable to begin with at ~1000 dollars for a PSA 10 Silver Prizm rookie card PRE-covid boom right after he was drafted. Prices settled down to ~300-500 a card prior to the bubble market, but we're also still very likely inflated (significantly) at ~1200 per for the same card today. If the market never boomed most people would have lost money at this point "prospecting" the card. Broken even at best. For most of his cards probably.

3. Bird was drafted on a terrible team initially and turned them into a winner. The Celtics were 29-53 the year prior to drafting Bird. Then they were 61 wins and in the ECF in his rookie year, and won the finals in his 2nd year. Of course the team was better than the Mavs, but still, this is the problem. We're comparing Luka to LeBron, Bird, and Jordan.

Bro I don't care if he dropped 35 ppg in a season he's done NOTHING so far in terms of real legacy building. And this isn't an exercise in crapping on Luka I keep prefacing or explaining that I like him. The point is that the price to buy in was so stupidly high and it was even pre-covid, that he would never live up to it. He was a non-zero chance, and there's also a non-zero chance the Monstars will land on earth next season and play in the league.

Luka hasn't busted and he is good. So is Tatum. Neither have done anything yet. If Tatum wins a ring this season and carries the Celtics in specific games like he did game 7 last series, AND maybe wins another ring or two in the next 3-5 years then we're talking legacy. Doncic needs to get there. Unfortunately yes RINGS are a requirement here. Once again can anyone name a SINGLE player in the top 10 all-time who doesn't have a ring on his hand? Multiple rings probably? Can't think of a single guy anyone would realistically name. And that's the issue with Luka, situation and hasn't even come close, projections thus far aren't looking good outside of him demanding a trade.

1. I never claimed that, you’re warping my argument to fit yours. Luka has been one of the leagues best players and has one of the greatest 1st 5 year resumes of any player. He stacks up with all of the all time greats. Those are facts.

Are you arguing that he should have done more to this point to justify hype that never existed? What more should he have done? We can go series by series if you’d like.

You’re too fixated on card prices while not understanding how prospecting works and why prices are/were so high. They’re the highest they ever will be during a players rookie year for most players. You’re trying to assign a basketball “ranking” based on card prices which makes no sense. Bol Bol was selling for more than most HOFers, does that mean people thought he would be a HOF player and win a bunch of titles and whatever? Of course not.

You can’t compare card prices of players across eras anyways because each card/set has a different dynamic and collector base. You’re trying to simplify an incredibly complex and nuanced discussion in a way that makes no sense

[NSGJT]

Bingo.

And his contemporaries Giannis and Jokic won their MVPs ages 25-27.

So the next 3 years will be the sweet spot to tell if he's still the most advanced player post-LeBron/Curry/Durant, or if he falls behind.

What does being the most advanced player post-Bron era mean though?

This is another topic that ties in. Let's say the NBA is 2 years consists of a top 5 -7 best players of say: Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Tatum, Embiid, Mitchell/Booker

Bron, KD, Curry age out, and others like Klay/Draymond, AD, Zion, etc. All age out or injury out. Then what though? There can simply be a period in the NBA where the talent level is much lower and there isn't a mega-star or stars. That's what this would be. Just like how the NFL has already lost and can continue to lose QB talent where Brady, Brees, Manning, soon to be Rodgers/Stafford, perhaps Wilson all age out or wash out via injuries. Mahomes has replaced an elite spot, but outside of maybe Burrow no one else really has. If Young/Stroud/Richardson/anyone don't pan out to be top 5-8 then the QB talent is going to be pathetic for some years overall.

I see the same here. Giannis in 5 years is 33. Embiid probably sees injury tolls, also is 34. So naturally Tatum/Doncic/Booker, Mitchell, Brunson, Brown are moving up by default up the list. Does it mean they're more talented though? No. We'll see about incoming drafts but the last few years of drafting in the NBA didn't bring in much high end talent, I guess Edwards might be a top 10 guy or so but can't think of much else.

There simply can be a down turn of talent overall in the league. I don't know if that makes these guys' legacy better. Easier to reach a finals? I guess. But there's also no excuse to not carry a team to a play-in 9th-10th seed at least at this point. DAL might need to pray for lottery balls tonight and Wemby.

[jcardstore]

I’ve learned today that all nba is a meaningless award :cry: the lengths people on here will go to discredit Luka still are incredible. I think it’s about time to bump my Luka pre draft thread again to see all the hilariously bad takes in there.

Idk what it is with Luka but man people have some terrible takes on the guy. Can’t do anything right. I guess it comes with the territory of being one of the leagues best players

[pmatic]

1. I never claimed that, you’re warping my argument to fit yours. Luka has been one of the leagues best players and has one of the greatest 1st 5 year resumes of any player. He stacks up with all of the all time greats. Those are facts.

Are you arguing that he should have done more to this point to justify hype that never existed? What more should he have done? We can go series by series if you’d like.


Again, greatest 1st 5 years argument. Great start sure, but there are levels to this.

It seems like your only ammo to this fight are his All NBA 1st team selections. It's not guaranteed he'll make the next 5 either.


At this point, you need something else. A Finals appearance? an All NBA defense selection to show he's not a one way player? A season where he led the league in scoring or assist perhaps?






This is what I said.

"I think there were people projecting him as the next Michael Jordan which was absurd then and even look more ridiculous now"



And this is how you responded.



What makes you think he couldn’t continue?

Players with at least 4x 1st team all NBA in their first 5 seasons. (Post merger)





There has to be something more concrete that people can't refute other than "feel for the game" or All NBA selections.

[NSGJT]

1. I never claimed that, you’re warping my argument to fit yours. Luka has been one of the leagues best players and has one of the greatest 1st 5 year resumes of any player. He stacks up with all of the all time greats. Those are facts.

Are you arguing that he should have done more to this point to justify hype that never existed? What more should he have done? We can go series by series if you’d like.

You’re too fixated on card prices while not understanding how prospecting works and why prices are/were so high. They’re the highest they ever will be during a players rookie year for most players. You’re trying to assign a basketball “ranking” based on card prices which makes no sense. Bol Bol was selling for more than most HOFers, does that mean people thought he would be a HOF player and win a bunch of titles and whatever? Of course not.

You can’t compare card prices of players across eras anyways because each card/set has a different dynamic and collector base. You’re trying to simplify an incredibly complex and nuanced discussion in a way that makes no sense

You directly compared him to LeBron, Bird, and Jordan. That wasn't me. You essentially cherry picked All-NBAs and compared it to Brons and said Luka has more after 5 years. Which is true I guess, so what's your point and why did you make that comparison?

How am I too fixated on price? That is the ENTIRE point. That is my premise here is that Luka's price was too high to even "prospect" or speculate. The starting price was 1000 dollars out of the gate for a silver prizm 10, and the low point was ~300-500 dollars. You guys are being very biased here, and that's okay maybe you bought up his cards. But you cannot just focus on the fact that Jordan/Bron didn't have a ring in the first 5 seasons as copium, you need to realize that bar is set at 4 rings minimum for him to achieve the built in price, hype, that he had.

Bol-Bol is a strawman fallacious argument. His card only spiked because of a bubble. If he was drafted in 2016 his card would have went for dirt. It did go for dirt initially, 30-40 bucks for a 10, and then skyrocketed because of the covid bubble. Completely irrelevant point. I'm not comparing peak covid prices of luka here, the only thing I'm pointing to is the fact that his current ~1200 dollar silver prizm price at a 10 is INFLATED clearly. In 5 years Luka's cards will be worth less than they initially sold for, and very likely less than their lowest points in ~2018-2019. It's an easy bet to make. We'll see in a few years, 5 years from now. Market likely tanks further, and Luka likely has zero rings still and hype cools tremendously. But we'll see.

[pmatic]

For what it's worth, I don't hate Luka. I have 3 cards. 2 Lamelo's and 1 Luka Doncic (Optic Holo PSA 9)



But as a basketball fan first, I love discussions about the game so much I sometimes even expose players I root for as if the arguments against them are factual.

[jcardstore]

Again, greatest 1st 5 years argument. Great start sure, but there are levels to this.

It seems like your only ammo to this fight are his All NBA 1st team selections. It's not guaranteed he'll make the next 5 either.


At this point, you need something else. A Finals appearance? an All NBA defense selection to show he's not a one way player? A season where he led the league in scoring or assist perhaps?




This is what I said.

"I think there were people projecting him as the next Michael Jordan which was absurd then and even look more ridiculous now"



And this is how you responded.






There has to be something more concrete that people can't refute other than "feel for the game" or All NBA selections.

If you want to evaluate players individually, then knocking guys for no finals appearances or rings makes no sense since basketball is a team game.

Nobody has refuted my point about the Mavs doing next to nothing to surround Luka with talent. Name me a single player who won a title by himself or anybody other than LeBron dragging a sorry team to the finals. And no Larry Birds early Celtics titles don’t count because the team was loaded with HOFers and incredible role players not to mention a league best organization so miss me with that nonsense.

Poor argument to bring up Bird also because the Celtics didn’t outperform expectations. If you look back at Vegas odds and win totals everyone expected the Celtics to be great and they were.

[NSGJT]

I’ve learned today that all nba is a meaningless award :cry: the lengths people on here will go to discredit Luka still are incredible. I think it’s about time to bump my Luka pre draft thread again to see all the hilariously bad takes in there.

Idk what it is with Luka but man people have some terrible takes on the guy. Can’t do anything right. I guess it comes with the territory of being one of the leagues best players

Let's not devolve into the lowest IQ discussion blaming "haters" because people don't agree with your takes. Must be those "Luka haters!!!!" bro!!!!

No one hates Luka. He's legitimately one of the most likeable players in the league and is exciting, and is good. But you are the one here comparing him to f--ing LeBron bro. Are you for real? You literally are saying Luka has more All-NBAs than LeBron, so what's your point, what's the implication here?

Bron was one of the best players in the league if not the best within a few years of playing and dominated. He is a transcendent talent. He is the 2nd best all-time minimum and there's a reason many argue he is the most talented basketball player of all-time despite not having the 6 rings and legacy of Jordan.

Luka has never shown anything remotely close to this. Luka is closer to Jayson Tatum, I don't think they are that far off. I'm a Celtics fan and I would NEVER been comparing Tatum to Bron/Bird/Jordan, wtf are we doing here?

[jcardstore]

You directly compared him to LeBron, Bird, and Jordan. That wasn't me. You essentially cherry picked All-NBAs and compared it to Brons and said Luka has more after 5 years. Which is true I guess, so what's your point and why did you make that comparison?

How am I too fixated on price? That is the ENTIRE point. That is my premise here is that Luka's price was too high to even "prospect" or speculate. The starting price was 1000 dollars out of the gate for a silver prizm 10, and the low point was ~300-500 dollars. You guys are being very biased here, and that's okay maybe you bought up his cards. But you cannot just focus on the fact that Jordan/Bron didn't have a ring in the first 5 seasons as copium, you need to realize that bar is set at 4 rings minimum for him to achieve the built in price, hype, that he had.

Bol-Bol is a strawman fallacious argument. His card only spiked because of a bubble. If he was drafted in 2016 his card would have went for dirt. It did go for dirt initially, 30-40 bucks for a 10, and then skyrocketed because of the covid bubble. Completely irrelevant point. I'm not comparing peak covid prices of luka here, the only thing I'm pointing to is the fact that his current ~1200 dollar silver prizm price at a 10 is INFLATED clearly. In 5 years Luka's cards will be worth less than they initially sold for, and very likely less than their lowest points in ~2018-2019. It's an easy bet to make. We'll see in a few years, 5 years from now. Market likely tanks further, and Luka likely has zero rings still and hype cools tremendously. But we'll see.

I said his resume measures up with those guys. Which, it does. So to have him in the conversation with them in terms of career trajectory makes sense.

Again, the card prices thing. Comparing Lukas card prices with (insert all time great here) make literally no sense. There are no similarities between 2019 Prizm and 86 fleer or 03 Topps or whatever other set you want to compare.

His prices were too high based on what? You’re only saying that with the benefit of hindsight and the fact that we had a once in a lifetime market that we’ll never see again. What’s the baseline? Are you comparing Luka Prizm PSA 10s against Jordan PSA 10? Bron PSA 10? Doesn’t matter cause those guys blew Luka prices out of the water.

You’re trying to speculate on something you weren’t even here for. Unless you were lurking in 2018+ how do you know what the discourse around Luka was?

Maybe Luka card prices will be lower than they were at release, although I seriously doubt it, but you could say that about nearly every card in existence.

You’re all over the place

[KhalDrogo]

Does


Anyone




Know why this guy

Uses so


Many


Spaces?

[jcardstore]

Let's not devolve into the lowest IQ discussion blaming "haters" because people don't agree with your takes. Must be those "Luka haters!!!!" bro!!!!

No one hates Luka. He's legitimately one of the most likeable players in the league and is exciting, and is good. But you are the one here comparing him to f--ing LeBron bro. Are you for real? You literally are saying Luka has more All-NBAs than LeBron, so what's your point, what's the implication here?

Bron was one of the best players in the league if not the best within a few years of playing and dominated. He is a transcendent talent. He is the 2nd best all-time minimum and there's a reason many argue he is the most talented basketball player of all-time despite not having the 6 rings and legacy of Jordan.

Luka has never shown anything remotely close to this. Luka is closer to Jayson Tatum, I don't think they are that far off. I'm a Celtics fan and I would NEVER been comparing Tatum to Bron/Bird/Jordan, wtf are we doing here?

If you don’t think Luka is a top 5 NBA player and a transcendent talent we have nothing to discuss. I had this exact same discussion in 2018 on here and everyone told me how clueless I was, called me names, whatever… 4 years later and turns out I was right. We’re just spinning the wheel again and in 4 more years I’ll be able to look back on this and laugh.

[pmatic]

If you want to evaluate players individually, then knocking guys for no finals appearances or rings makes no sense since basketball is a team game.

Nobody has refuted my point about the Mavs doing next to nothing to surround Luka with talent. Name me a single player who won a title by himself or anybody other than LeBron dragging a sorry team to the finals. And no Larry Birds early Celtics titles don’t count because the team was loaded with HOFers and incredible role players not to mention a league best organization so miss me with that nonsense.

Poor argument to bring up Bird also because the Celtics didn’t outperform expectations. If you look back at Vegas odds and win totals everyone expected the Celtics to be great and they were.

So, notice how I did not stop at an NBA Finals appearance because I'm well aware this is a team accomplishment.


I mentioned All NBA Defense selections, Scoring or Assist leaders in the same post. I know triple doubles have not been valued as much since Westbrook broke the record but I'll even take a triple double season from Luka. Anything tangible to suggest he's actually on the right track to become as the leagues "IT" player.



If we're going to put him this high and compare his career to the creme of the crop, I don't think an All NBA selection is enough.

[pmatic]

If you don’t think Luka is a top 5 NBA player and a transcendent talent we have nothing to discuss. I had this exact same discussion in 2018 on here and everyone told me how clueless I was, called me names, whatever… 4 years later and turns out I was right. We’re just spinning the wheel again and in 4 more years I’ll be able to look back on this and laugh.

I mean, Ryan Hollins got it right too predraft and said Luka will be the best player of his draft.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jtCMhCehYI


This is just how it works, people hit or miss. It's called the NBA Lottery for a multiple reasons.

[NSGJT]

If you don’t think Luka is a top 5 NBA player and a transcendent talent we have nothing to discuss. I had this exact same discussion in 2018 on here and everyone told me how clueless I was, called me names, whatever… 4 years later and turns out I was right. We’re just spinning the wheel again and in 4 more years I’ll be able to look back on this and laugh.

Yeah well a top 5 NBA player probably doesn't miss the playoffs with virtually any roster when there's 10 seeds per conference that make it now.

In terms of pure talent, yeah this season which is the furthest aged out for the old guard and what should be Luka's best year thus far as he's younger - I'd absolutely take: Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Curry over him so that's 6. I'd take a healthy Kawhi Leonard still, I believe he impacts winning more and is the better player on the court for now, so that's 7.

Then yeah I'd have to say Doncic is 8th. That's a slight edge over Tatum, and you can probably toss in Butler, Mitchell, Booker as being right in that group. Dame isn't far off or is in that cluster. So he's top 10 for me, you'd really have to argue he's top 5 in talent/impact, I just don't see that. But either way, agree to disagree and we'll see in 5 years if Doncic carves out some all-time great legacy. Tatum might get a ring soon, might be talking about him over Doncic too.

[jcardstore]

So, notice how I did not stop at an NBA Finals appearance because I'm well aware this is a team accomplishment.


I mentioned All NBA Defense selections, Scoring or Assist leaders in the same post. I know triple doubles have not been valued as much since Westbrook broke the record but I'll even take a triple double season from Luka. Anything tangible to suggest he's actually on the right track to become as the leagues "IT" player.



If we're going to put him this high and compare his career to the creme of the crop, I don't think an All NBA selection is enough.

LeBron never had any of those accolades to this point, though. Bird was never first team all defense, never led the league in scoring or assists, so I guess they didn’t stack up either

[pmatic]

LeBron never had any of those accolades to this point, though. Bird was never first team all defense, never led the league in scoring or assists, so I guess they didn’t stack up either

But Lebron led the Cavs in the Finals in his 4th season. Bird was champion in year 5 and won FMVP.

Like I said, there has to be something there to keep this trajectory going. He's simply lagging if we're talking about Top 10 All Time Great trajectories.

[pmatic]

Yeah well a top 5 NBA player probably doesn't miss the playoffs with virtually any roster when there's 10 seeds per conference that make it now.

In terms of pure talent, yeah this season which is the furthest aged out for the old guard and what should be Luka's best year thus far as he's younger - I'd absolutely take: Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Curry over him so that's 6. I'd take a healthy Kawhi Leonard still, I believe he impacts winning more and is the better player on the court for now, so that's 7.

Then yeah I'd have to say Doncic is 8th. That's a slight edge over Tatum, and you can probably toss in Butler, Mitchell, Booker as being right in that group. Dame isn't far off or is in that cluster. So he's top 10 for me, you'd really have to argue he's top 5 in talent/impact, I just don't see that. But either way, agree to disagree and we'll see in 5 years if Doncic carves out some all-time great legacy. Tatum might get a ring soon, might be talking about him over Doncic too.

I would take Tatum over Luka right now. JT plays on both ends of the floor and you can see how he impacts the game when he's off. Luka simply relies on his ability to dish and score.

[tjforce]

What does being the most advanced player post-Bron era mean though?

This is another topic that ties in. Let's say the NBA is 2 years consists of a top 5 -7 best players of say: Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Tatum, Embiid, Mitchell/Booker

Bron, KD, Curry age out, and others like Klay/Draymond, AD, Zion, etc. All age out or injury out. Then what though? There can simply be a period in the NBA where the talent level is much lower and there isn't a mega-star or stars. That's what this would be. Just like how the NFL has already lost and can continue to lose QB talent where Brady, Brees, Manning, soon to be Rodgers/Stafford, perhaps Wilson all age out or wash out via injuries. Mahomes has replaced an elite spot, but outside of maybe Burrow no one else really has. If Young/Stroud/Richardson/anyone don't pan out to be top 5-8 then the QB talent is going to be pathetic for some years overall.

I see the same here. Giannis in 5 years is 33. Embiid probably sees injury tolls, also is 34. So naturally Tatum/Doncic/Booker, Mitchell, Brunson, Brown are moving up by default up the list. Does it mean they're more talented though? No. We'll see about incoming drafts but the last few years of drafting in the NBA didn't bring in much high end talent, I guess Edwards might be a top 10 guy or so but can't think of much else.

There simply can be a down turn of talent overall in the league. I don't know if that makes these guys' legacy better. Easier to reach a finals? I guess. But there's also no excuse to not carry a team to a play-in 9th-10th seed at least at this point. DAL might need to pray for lottery balls tonight and Wemby.

I can't tell if you lost me at Donovan Mitchell as a top player or no elite QB talent besides Mahomes and Burrow (while considering Matt Stafford, who has 1 career PRO BOWL, an elite QB). It's like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts are ALL going to fall off the face of the earth and non improve or have the season where it all goes right.

[jcardstore]

But Lebron led the Cavs in the Finals in his 4th season. Bird was champion in year 5 and won FMVP.

Like I said, there has to be something there to keep this trajectory going. He's simply lagging if we're talking about Top 10 All Time Great trajectories.

LeBron leading the Cavs to the finals in 07 was one of the greatest finals runs in history. He did everything by himself it might never be topped. The only thing close would be AIs run to the finals.

[NSGJT]

I can't tell if you lost me at Donovan Mitchell as a top player or no elite QB talent besides Mahomes and Burrow (while considering Matt Stafford, who has 1 career PRO BOWL, an elite QB). It's like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts are ALL going to fall off the face of the earth and non improve or have the season where it all goes right.

Well obviously Mitchell and Stafford are further down the list respectively, the point on the latter was that Stafford (we've disagreed on this before) has been a top 10 QB for over a decade. Who's replacing that volume of talent? He was a volume piece not an elite QB.

Naming Tua, Lamar, Jalen Hurts is comical to me and I'll leave it at that. Once one of those guys can string together two clear top 10 QB in the league seasons in a row we can start to even name them, none of them have. And yes Lamar hasn't. One clear boosted MVP year is the only clear-cut season he was for sure top 10, but at least he's the least egregious name there.

I think you're overrating those QBs to put it lightly. We'll see how things play out but Brady-Manning-Rodgers-Brees of the last generation essentially were elite studs. All absolutely locks for the HoF, and I'd argue all 4 are top 10 QBs ever, yes I'd include Brees at the back-end of that list.

Allen, Herbert, Lawrence have done nothing by comparison. They're good, and it's not fair to say this fully because they have only played maybe 5, 3, 2 seasons respectively right? But it's a fact. Nothing. Burrow has reached 1 SB and lost and like I said I differentiate him because I see something in him, clutch factor, I hate to say "eye test" but he's over them and clearly below Mahomes.

Anyway back to the topic, my point here is that we can see a period of time without any true elite players in a league. Certainly without upper tier all-timers. We're lucky that Mahomes exists. There is not necessarily a Mahomes in the NBA once Curry/Bron/KD (Kawhi) retire and wash out. I suppose people will be overrated though as there has to be someone to win rings and be top 3-5, or the best player, by default. We'll see.

Also: Please can we stop using PRO BOWLS and similar accolades to determine greatness? They matter sure, but they are also popularity contest awards voted on by delusional old writers most of the time. Stafford made 1 pro bowl? Oh cool, Mac Jones made a pro bowl, Trubisky made a pro bowl, and the Ravens backup I can't even think of the name Huntley??? made a pro bowl this year. I guess they're just as good. Derek Carr probably made 5, he must be really good. Yes all-time greats and elites are going to make tons of all-star games/pro bowls because they cannot be denied, but I never said Stafford was either. I'm claiming he was a top 10 QB and he will be gone soon. And yes Stafford was WAY better than Lamar/Tua/Hurts.

[NSGJT]

I can't tell if you lost me at Donovan Mitchell as a top player or no elite QB talent besides Mahomes and Burrow (while considering Matt Stafford, who has 1 career PRO BOWL, an elite QB). It's like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts are ALL going to fall off the face of the earth and non improve or have the season where it all goes right.

I'm getting a bit too passionate in this pointless debate, but you're also sleeping on Mitchell. I named Brunson and Brown too, they're somehow better? Way better? Idk about that. I think all three can be fringe top 10 players of the future, top 15 maybe. That was my point. Where as Doncic/Tatum will be top 5 for sure in the next 3-5 years barring injury or multiple random exceptional studs coming into the league.

[tjforce]

Well obviously Mitchell and Stafford are further down the list respectively, the point on the latter was that Stafford (we've disagreed on this before) has been a top 10 QB for over a decade. Who's replacing that volume of talent? He was a volume piece not an elite QB.

Naming Tua, Lamar, Jalen Hurts is comical to me and I'll leave it at that. Once one of those guys can string together two clear top 10 QB in the league seasons in a row we can start to even name them, none of them have. And yes Lamar hasn't. One clear boosted MVP year is the only clear-cut season he was for sure top 10, but at least he's the least egregious name there.

I think you're overrating those QBs to put it lightly. We'll see how things play out but Brady-Manning-Rodgers-Brees of the last generation essentially were elite studs. All absolutely locks for the HoF, and I'd argue all 4 are top 10 QBs ever, yes I'd include Brees at the back-end of that list.

Allen, Herbert, Lawrence have done nothing by comparison. They're good, and it's not fair to say this fully because they have only played maybe 5, 3, 2 seasons respectively right? But it's a fact. Nothing. Burrow has reached 1 SB and lost and like I said I differentiate him because I see something in him, clutch factor, I hate to say "eye test" but he's over them and clearly below Mahomes.

Anyway back to the topic, my point here is that we can see a period of time without any true elite players in a league. Certainly without upper tier all-timers. We're lucky that Mahomes exists. There is not necessarily a Mahomes in the NBA once Curry/Bron/KD (Kawhi) retire and wash out. I suppose people will be overrated though as there has to be someone to win rings and be top 3-5, or the best player, by default. We'll see.

Also: Please can we stop using PRO BOWLS and similar accolades to determine greatness? They matter sure, but they are also popularity contest awards voted on by delusional old writers most of the time. Stafford made 1 pro bowl? Oh cool, Mac Jones made a pro bowl, Trubisky made a pro bowl, and the Ravens backup I can't even think of the name Huntley??? made a pro bowl this year. I guess they're just as good. Derek Carr probably made 5, he must be really good. Yes all-time greats and elites are going to make tons of all-star games/pro bowls because they cannot be denied, but I never said Stafford was either. I'm claiming he was a top 10 QB and he will be gone soon. And yes Stafford was WAY better than Lamar/Tua/Hurts.

This is specifically why I used Pro Bowls for Stafford.

There are 10 Pro Bowl QBs a year, and he's made it once

[jcardstore]

Anyway back to the topic, my point here is that we can see a period of time without any true elite players in a league. Certainly without upper tier all-timers. We're lucky that Mahomes exists. There is not necessarily a Mahomes in the NBA once Curry/Bron/KD (Kawhi) retire and wash out. I suppose people will be overrated though as there has to be someone to win rings and be top 3-5, or the best player, by default. We'll see

This is a bold statement considering there’s been a top 10 all time player in every single decade/era of the leagues history and the league is currently considered the most talent dense of all time

[NSGJT]

This is specifically why I used Pro Bowls for Stafford.

There are 10 Pro Bowl QBs a year, and he's made it once

And Mac Jones, Mitchell Trubisky, and Tyler Huntley have made a pro bowl. So is this a legitimate, accurate barometer of talent? Derek Carr has 4x pro bowls. It's a joke of an award/accolade. Stafford was clearly top 10 or fringe top 10 in the league for over a decade. He just won a SB and was clearly top 5-10 in the league in that season.

Recently Manning, Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees retired. Brady just retired. Stafford is not on the same level as most of those guys, maybe close to Rivers, but he will also retire and was top 10 for awhile. Wilson was near-elite and top 10 for awhile until two recent seasons. Let's not be victims of recency bias here and name drop f'ing Tua and Hurts into that pool of names, even for Stafford/Rivers.

It's fun to speculate. Herbert/Lawrence/Allen, they are good QBs, there's talent there. But the odds of them being Rivers or Stafford level or worse is probably just as high or higher than them being true elites. But again I think if we're being intelligent we have to consider that team/situation factors in, and well Stafford was on the Lions forever so it's probably more unfair to him than Herbert or Lawrence's situation thus far but we can acknowledge context.

[NSGJT]

This is a bold statement considering there’s been a top 10 all time player in every single decade/era of the leagues history and the league is currently considered the most talent dense of all time

The recent drafts have been very underwhelming and lack top end talent. And if anyone is going to be consider all-time level, talking top 15-20 ever at least, it's Giannis at this point. Yeah obviously we need to see it all play out and by default someone has to be #1 or top 5 in the league at a given time, and every year someone is winning a ring.

Personally I don't think anyone from the 50s or 60s should be on the top 10 list all-time, if they are they should be towards the end of that list. By I understand not everyone agrees with that. Kareem is really the only player who's prime was in the 70s who's considered top 5, top 10 ever. Russell and Wilt are the only two considered in that range who are from the 50s-60s.

You're probably right. But not necessarily. We could see a decade here in the 20s where no one star builds a legacy with more than 1 ring, or 2 rings max. It honestly all depends on if there's a super team formed mostly. Looking across the NBA landscape right now, what team is so stacked that you think they will compete for the title for multiple years? Celtics, Nuggets maybe? That's about it. Maybe if the Mavs get super lucky in the lotto tonight and get a top 3 pick and that pans out, they're there in a few years.

This is an entirely different conversation at this point but I don't see it being Doncic and the Mavs unless the lotto balls bounce their way (and they could rig it lmao, they should). We'd have to look at the barrier for entry into the top 10 as well, like I said I would separate older gen players from the 50s-60s honestly, just an entirely different league but then again so is anything pre 2010s. But with conventional, consensus lists: Jordan, LeBron, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Wilt, Russell, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, Hakeem, Curry - is more or less your top 10-12. Only one guy is in the top 10 definitively who was drafted later than 1998 - LeBron. Only three guys other than LeBron are there in the top 10 and multiple are debatable in Shaq/Duncan/Kobe. Curry is the most arguably top 10 guy who is drafted from 2000 onward, KD isn't going to make it now clearly but is very talented and has 2 rings but * rings.

A lot of this is a function of playing out careers clearly, but we can/should all agree that no one currently playing, well into their career is making the top 10 besides Bron and maybe Curry who was drafted post 1999. Not like we have to wait 10 years to figure that one out. Kawhi ain't, KD ain't, etc. Maybe Giannis has a hope and a prayer here if the Bucks get a bit better, Middleton comes back, and he wins at least another 1-2 rings. But as of now, there's no one currently that has carved out any sort of legacy whatsoever. And I understand Luka is "only" 5 years in, and Tatum is in his 6th year and in the ECF, and Jokic is in the WCF. But we'll see. Lakers-Heat is possible and just nukes another year of anyone new building a legacy and getting a ring. Lakers winning just adds to Bron's legacy, AD's, not anyone new.

[jcardstore]

I’m not going to quote the whole thing but you said you didn’t think anyone from the 50s/60s should be top 10 and I’m the same breath said Wilt and Russell are top 10. So which is it?

Outside of those 2 nobody else is considered top10 or even close.

We have Giannis who has the trajectory to be top10, if Jokic wins a couple rings he’s in the conversation. You obviously aren’t a Luka believer but he’s been a basketball prodigy since a child, imagine if he had 10% of the athletic build of LeBron.

[yiguiri2002]

I'm already used to the Kobe fandom but the Curry one is still strange. He's Top 10 when it comes to his influence in the game but not close to any Top 10 all time list. Probably a Top 20, borderline Top 15 guy though.

[jcardstore]

I'm already used to the Kobe fandom but the Curry one is still strange. He's Top 10 when it comes to his influence in the game but not close to any Top 10 all time list. Probably a Top 20, borderline Top 15 guy though.

What 5+ players do you have over him

[NSGJT]

I’m not going to quote the whole thing but you said you didn’t think anyone from the 50s/60s should be top 10 and I’m the same breath said Wilt and Russell are top 10. So which is it?

Outside of those 2 nobody else is considered top10 or even close.

We have Giannis who has the trajectory to be top10, if Jokic wins a couple rings he’s in the conversation. You obviously aren’t a Luka believer but he’s been a basketball prodigy since a child, imagine if he had 10% of the athletic build of LeBron.

I guess you didn't read what I said correctly or closely. I said personally I would not include any players from the 60s or earlier, or if I did include Wilt/Russell (who'd make it generally) I'd put them towards the back end of the top 10 all-time. That's my opinion.

What I bolded is also a point I made. Just like no one outside of Kareem who peaked during the 70s is top 10. So there are a total of 3 players who are consensus top 5 or top 10 guys all-time who played in the 60s and 70s. And while we have time to go, we already know that only one player who's prime was ~2005-2019, or the 2010s really (LeBron) is definitively top 10. Curry was drafted 2009 as well, and prime was in the 2010s/early 20s obviously, but he's not necessarily top 10 but can be argued.

I said you were right, there has been a player from each generation who is considered top 10 all-time. But the barrier to entry has only increased on that list. So if we are going by consensus lists, which include Wilt/Russell, then anyone existing now carving out a legacy now has to go to tremendous lengths to crack the top 10. I.e. Curry might not even be top 10, Kobe might not be top 10. You have to be better than those guys overall and win 4+ rings, that's the bar here.

As for the second part, this is where we are going to disagree. We'll just agree to disagree, because you and others keep projecting this imaginary trajectory for Luka Doncic and now Giannis. Luka has been to some all-NBAs, he has zero rings, zero MVPs, arguably hasn't been a top 5 player in the league among peers once yet. Giannis has been a top 3-5 player for multiple years and has won 1 single ring. He's 28 now, he turns 29 during the season next year. He's not that young. So how many more rings or how many more ECFs or finals is he even getting to? He lost this year and didn't even get far. As I said many words ago, players teaming up for super teams is going to write the history here legacy wise. That's essentially how Jordan became GOAT, and Bron become 2nd GOAT, and how most all-timers make the list, they all had stacked teams at one point. Not a single one didn't. Luka and Giannis do not project to have a high chance of winning rings in years to time, Giannis is higher but he also turns 30+ within 2 years. Luka is stuck in Dallas on paper, on contract, until he turns 29 in the middle of the F/A season. So to repeat another thing, let's see the lottery tonight. DAL should be praying.

[fabiani12333]

If you look at his body of NBA work he’s not far off. LeBron didn’t get 1st team until his 3rd season. This also doesn’t include Lukas ACB titles, MVP, and 1st team

Through 5 years:
LeBron - 2x 1st team, 2x 2nd team - Luka 4x 1st team
LeBron obviously crushes him in playoff record and appearances and gets major credit for dragging the sorriest finals team of all time to get clubbed by the Spurs… but Luka has dragged his team to a WCF and has some big playoff moments also.

Luka through 28 playoff games - 32/9/8 on 47/37/69
Bron through 60 playoff games (wow) - don’t feel like calculating the exact numbers but they’re worse across the board.

Yea obviously LeBron is LeBron but if you were to take their names away their 1st 5 years of resume are pretty damn close.

It’s insane to me people think he hasn’t or won’t live up to the hype when he has so far passed it already.

Covid price bubble didn’t change his hype as a basketball player at all just rising tide lifts all boats type thing for his prices.

I feel like most people don’t actually remember the Luka discussion pre draft and year 1 and his year 2+ hype he’s absolutely lived up to. Obviously this year was super disappointing but let’s not be prisoners on the moment

Lebron is an athletic freak -- Doncic is not.

I think the best comp for Doncic is James Harden. Both have similar playing styles -- ball dominant, pick and roll dominant, slow and methodical pace, step back 3 pointers etc. Although Harden was very durable during his prime -- played 81 games three years in a row.

[tjforce]

So who... after reading this thread....

Is planning on going in on Wemby at release prices?

[ninjacookies]

So who... after reading this thread....

Is planning on going in on Wemby at release prices?

https://media.tenor.com/sEzoFXgzhPwAAAAd/glee-kitty-wilde.gif


Every BO'er buys at bottom and sells at absolute market peak.

Clecter thuganomics.

[jcardstore]

I guess you didn't read what I said correctly or closely. I said personally I would not include any players from the 60s or earlier, or if I did include Wilt/Russell (who'd make it generally) I'd put them towards the back end of the top 10 all-time. That's my opinion.

What I bolded is also a point I made. Just like no one outside of Kareem who peaked during the 70s is top 10. So there are a total of 3 players who are consensus top 5 or top 10 guys all-time who played in the 60s and 70s. And while we have time to go, we already know that only one player who's prime was ~2005-2019, or the 2010s really (LeBron) is definitively top 10. Curry was drafted 2009 as well, and prime was in the 2010s/early 20s obviously, but he's not necessarily top 10 but can be argued.

I said you were right, there has been a player from each generation who is considered top 10 all-time. But the barrier to entry has only increased on that list. So if we are going by consensus lists, which include Wilt/Russell, then anyone existing now carving out a legacy now has to go to tremendous lengths to crack the top 10. I.e. Curry might not even be top 10, Kobe might not be top 10. You have to be better than those guys overall and win 4+ rings, that's the bar here.

As for the second part, this is where we are going to disagree. We'll just agree to disagree, because you and others keep projecting this imaginary trajectory for Luka Doncic and now Giannis. Luka has been to some all-NBAs, he has zero rings, zero MVPs, arguably hasn't been a top 5 player in the league among peers once yet. Giannis has been a top 3-5 player for multiple years and has won 1 single ring. He's 28 now, he turns 29 during the season next year. He's not that young. So how many more rings or how many more ECFs or finals is he even getting to? He lost this year and didn't even get far. As I said many words ago, players teaming up for super teams is going to write the history here legacy wise. That's essentially how Jordan became GOAT, and Bron become 2nd GOAT, and how most all-timers make the list, they all had stacked teams at one point. Not a single one didn't. Luka and Giannis do not project to have a high chance of winning rings in years to time, Giannis is higher but he also turns 30+ within 2 years. Luka is stuck in Dallas on paper, on contract, until he turns 29 in the middle of the F/A season. So to repeat another thing, let's see the lottery tonight. DAL should be praying.

If the barrier to the top 10 is 4+ rings (which I generally agree with) then the list really has a lot less to do with individual greatness than organizational greatness.

It’s basically saying: you have to be great but also play for the Lakers, Celtics or another big market franchise that can attract secondary and tertiary stars.

[Josie27]

$1200 government checks were not funding $80,000 card purchases. Maybe the embezzling of PPP loans was a culprit at times. But to think a couple thousand provided by the government made any sort of impact is nonsense.

[jcardstore]

$1200 government checks were not funding $80,000 card purchases. Maybe the embezzling of PPP loans was a culprit at times. But to think a couple thousand provided by the government made any sort of impact is nonsense.

Why do people keep saying this? Nobody is saying $1200 checks were funding 5 figure purchases.

The environment of 0% rates and years of free money + trillions in stimulus pumped the whole market

[GeechQuest]

Slangin $15 2nd year Good Hair bass to thirsty Balenciaga opportunists made me feel like Lloyd Christmas for a good stretch.

https://y.yarn.co/14b340eb-1442-4146-b6a3-37ae5640d3a5_text.gif




https://media.tenor.com/DtEHJJ45tNMAAAAM/blind-kid.gif

Legitimately one of the funniest things I’ve read on here.

How many paper millionaires did the hobby destroy? Quite a few.

[ninjacookies]

How many paper millionaires did the hobby destroy? Quite a few.

_Qi2ZT8ckVE

50 shades of #5kfanny.

Never forget.

[GeechQuest]

_Qi2ZT8ckVE

50 shades of #5kfanny.

Never forget.

Hahahahaha that damn $5KFanny. I think I still have the sideways PMs from Houdini (who, of course, bought the top of P2020) threatening me for trying to warn those clectors.

What a time to be alive.

I think my favorite was the TopShot savant who Diamond Handed his $21M liquid port. Absolutely amazing! Possibly could have been outdone by Wheeler who was looking to do a massive P2020 repack product. Sad we never saw that to fruition as Q is still drawing sketches for the next bird set.

Ken Goldin, Collectable Dudes, Overleveraged Brent, Rick Probstein interviewing Mastro, Fish, Top Shot creator, GaryV, and the rest of the dudes who robbed hobbyists blind sitting back like Soulja when he blanked Supa Hot Fire, counting their riches.

9L0qRO_cU3Q

[ninjacookies]

Sad we never saw that to fruition as Q is still drawing sketches for the next bird set.


It's only right Van Dough scores all the chickenheads.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/pcKnpFrumIM7TtzayE/giphy.gif

[fabiani12333]

$1200 government checks were not funding $80,000 card purchases. Maybe the embezzling of PPP loans was a culprit at times. But to think a couple thousand provided by the government made any sort of impact is nonsense.

People were taking their disposable income and buying and flipping cards and re-investing their earnings into higher valued cards, driving prices higher.

Because of the large injection of liquidity into the hobby, an asset price bubble was formed. Phonies were coming on BO saying it was the new norm and prices will continue to rise in perpetuity, so buy in while prices are still low, bro. Influencers promoted trading cards as a get-rich-quick scheme for the clueless.

Fractional companies and new financing options for card purchases drove prices to new heights. The market winners pumped and dumped and got out of the hobby before prices dropped. The bag holders were the market losers. The bag holders have unrealized loses that will be realized somewhere down the line.

This is the new norm, bro.

[1980bust]

JFC "this is the new normal" was THE WORST

[Starman101]

Pump and dump manipulation

I'm glad it's ok to say it now because when bubble was at its peak these "hobby ambassadors" were in denial

Mostly because they were profiting off of it

These auction houses were all in on it too

And these consolidation self proclaimed collectors continue to game people

They pump to consolidate because "they only PC rare cards...lolol"

Then dump the pumps before it drops. Then boast about themselves on social media while blatantly ripping off people.

Rinse and repeat.

They actually don't spend money on cards. They do dirty to others to build their "PC" with others blood like a parasite

It's pretty sad the endless cycle of greed of these losers

[ninjacookies]

Hahahahaha that damn $5KFanny. I think I still have the sideways PMs from Houdini (who, of course, bought the top of P2020) threatening me for trying to warn those clectors.


To put a stamp on things, I'll echo Geech's soliloquy in saying that newcomers and vet clecters alike need to at least field an open ear to counter opinions even when the grass looks exceptionally green. Your wallets may one day thank you.

The prognosticators we need, but don't necessarily deserve.






As always - YMMV.






Stay safe out there, boyos.

[fabiani12333]

If the barrier to the top 10 is 4+ rings (which I generally agree with) then the list really has a lot less to do with individual greatness than organizational greatness.

It’s basically saying: you have to be great but also play for the Lakers, Celtics or another big market franchise that can attract secondary and tertiary stars.

Generational players make teams title contenders. Plenty of teams can win a few rounds in the playoffs. The teams with all-time greats are the ones who are legit title contenders.

Lebron has made the finals 10 times with 3 different organizations. Shaq made the finals with the Magic before winning three championships with the Lakers and Kobe. Then he went to Miami and won a title with Dwayne Wade.

Tim Duncan's emergence with the Spurs made them and David Robinson title contenders. Curry's emergence as an MVP with the Warriors made them title contenders.

Kareem won a championship with the Bucks and then went to the Lakers and helped make a dynasty.

[jcardstore]

Generational players make teams title contenders. Plenty of teams can win a few rounds in the playoffs. The teams with all-time greats are the ones who are legit title contenders.

Lebron has made the finals 10 times with 3 different organizations. Shaq made the finals with the Magic before winning three championships with the Lakers and Kobe. Then he went to Miami and won a title with Dwayne Wade.

Tim Duncan's emergence with the Spurs made them and David Robinson title contenders. Curry's emergence as an MVP with the Warriors made them title contenders.

Kareem won a championship with the Bucks and then went to the Lakers and helped make a dynasty.

LeBron was never a contender until teaming up with wade and bosh in Miami, then comes back to Cleveland with Kyrie and Love so he didn’t make either of those teams contenders on his own.

The Spurs are one of the very few “home grown” teams that were able to draft and develop players

And the bucks w Kareem were stacked too

[cardsin47]

Lesson learned is perhaps don't prospect, IDK

Without Prospecting, we can all find other things to do with our time, because this Site and all others would be gone - this Hobby turns into a dusty old memory of “what was” , if you eliminate all the speculation and Speculators.

It is the fuel the feeds the engine

[fabiani12333]

LeBron was never a contender until teaming up with wade and bosh in Miami, then comes back to Cleveland with Kyrie and Love so he didn’t make either of those teams contenders on his own.

The Spurs are one of the very few “home grown” teams that were able to draft and develop players

And the bucks w Kareem were stacked too

Yes, MJ needed Pipen, LeBron needed Wade, Kyrie and Davis, Curry needed Klay and Draymond, Duncan needed Robinson and Parker, Shaq needed Kobe and Wade etc. The point is, without the generational player, those teams wouldn't have been title contenders. The generational player was irreplaceable, even though the championships were won by a full complement of players.

[cardsin47]

Yes, MJ needed Pipen, LeBron needed Wade, Kyrie and Davis, Curry needed Klay and Draymond, Duncan needed Robinson and Parker, Shaq needed Kobe and Wade etc. The point is, without the generational player, those teams wouldn't have been title contenders. The generational player was irreplaceable, even though the championships were won by a full complement of players.

Yup …. Spot on :)!

[FT35]

The pandemic “pumpers” are not gone—they’re still around, just changing. They deceived people to buy at grossly inflated prices and are the same people now (likely under different names) trying to get you to DUMP your collection so they can re-obtain what they sold high on and/or restock for the next pump cycle. I call them “dump pumpers.”

Evidence: 1. How many times did we hear “I’m selling now then will just buy it back for pennies on the dollar when this bubble pops.” 2. My favorite, these people will trash your cards, tell you how they are all worthless and explain how you were an idiot for buying into the pump—followed by an inevitable offer to BUY YOUR “WORTHLESS” CARDS! Amazing how that works!

Deceivers will deceive. Try not to get fooled on the way back down too.

[fabiani12333]

The pandemic “pumpers” are not gone—they’re still around, just changing. They deceived people to buy at grossly inflated prices and are the same people now (likely under different names) trying to get you to DUMP your collection so they can re-obtain what they sold high on and/or restock for the next pump cycle. I call them “dump pumpers.”

Evidence: 1. How many times did we hear “I’m selling now then will just buy it back for pennies on the dollar when this bubble pops.” 2. My favorite, these people will trash your cards, tell you how they are all worthless and explain how you were an idiot for buying into the pump—followed by an inevitable offer to BUY YOUR “WORTHLESS” CARDS! Amazing how that works!

Deceivers will deceive. Try not to get fooled on the way back down too.

What type of cards are you referring to? When do you anticipate the next "pump cycle"?

[TheFrenzy]

LeBron James carried a roster that was worse than multiple of the Mavs rosters that Luka has been on to the NBA finals. He was in his 4th year, age 22 year. His second best player was Zyldrunas Illguskas. His 3rd best was your choice of a bench player on most teams.

Are you a Mavs fan? Have you bought Luka cards? Honest question, you sound very biased at this point. You're comparing f'ing Bron to Luka, Bird-Jordan-Bron to Luka. Dude Luka has done NOTHING. He hasn't even been a top 5 player in the league once in 5 years imo, debatable but probably not. Are we serious here? Bron CARRIED a trash team to the finals. Luka's rosters have been better than that 06 Cavs team. He's not LeBron and that's fine, there's literally been TWO PLAYERS EVER of that caliber.

Well said. Thank you.

This guy talking to himself is only funnier in hindsight. :rolleyes:

:cry:

[TheFrenzy]

Good synergy between this thread and Football's version. (https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1455512)

[Stackfan]

Even people that weren't prospecting and going for "GOATS" like Lebron and Kobe were burned. Their prices dropped 50-75%; .... Sure they aren't going down to zero; but significant loses if bought at the peak.

Box prices are starting to come down; but i feel like there's alot of apprehension now. Concern over production, concern over quality, concern over price. Not to mention, concern that the loaded boxes are going to major breakers.