Second half hobby love

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Which player do you think is going to see the biggest boost in hobby love for where they are now at this moment?

I’m eyeing Matt Olson and Kyle Tucker if either of them plays a big part in their team’s playoff run.

[LCM1223]

Adley

[ThoseBackPages]

Ohtani, Ronny and Juan

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Ohtani, Ronny and Juan

An increase from where they are already?

Hmm… a lot of investors are hoping you’re right! Haha

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Adley

Don’t say that! I’m still waiting for his prices to come down a bit so I can get in.

[SupermanBrandon]

Now thru the end of the season is when you need to walk with your eyes wide open (if investing). Influencers will promise playoff bumps, awards, etc. People will be looking to capitalize on selling you the cards, they already own. Ohtani and Acuna have the awards already baked into todays prices. In reality its usually not the obvious choices or predictions that actually play well in the postseason and then have prices bump. Now's the time to watch and participate less. Get ready for the early offseason dips.

[zakcollects]

Colton Cowser and more Gunnar Henderson for the Orioles second half run.

And my wildcard is Oswald Peraza breaking through when he is called up next to form the tandem with Volpe. Get that Yankees bump.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Now thru the end of the season is when you need to walk with your eyes wide open (if investing). Influencers will promise playoff bumps, awards, etc. People will be looking to capitalize on selling you the cards, they already own. Ohtani and Acuna have the awards already baked into todays prices. In reality its usually not the obvious choices or predictions that actually play well in the postseason and then have prices bump. Now's the time to watch and participate less. Get ready for the early offseason dips.

Yeah, my buying usually declines around this time, and kicks into high-gear in November.

[Jolten Joe]

Olson already pretty up there. i think Michael Harris has good upside to take off as well as Julio if last year is any indication. There is also talk about the Yankees calling up Austin Wells and if he can do half of what he's doing in the minors and lead them to a 2nd Wildcard Spot could be a nice return as well.

[ThoseBackPages]

Yeah, my buying usually declines around this time, and kicks into high-gear in November.

i like to buy when the cards i want become available

#HuntYearRound

[Biohazarddfl]

Which player do you think is going to see the biggest boost in hobby love for where they are now at this moment?



I’m eyeing Matt Olson and Kyle Tucker if either of them plays a big part in their team’s playoff run.I like your list. I might add Corey Seager, Betts/Freeman, and Jose Ramirez.

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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

i like to buy when the cards i want become available

#HuntYearRound

Same, but force my to hold off a bit right around now. I’ll still add when it’s the right card at the right price. I just know whatever card I’m jonesing for now, will most likely be cheaper in Nov-Dec.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I like your list. I might add Corey Seager, Betts/Freeman, and Jose Ramirez.

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Part of just can’t help but feel like the hobby is never going to fully jump in on Freeman and Ramirez. We’ll see.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Olson already pretty up there. i think Michael Harris has good upside to take off as well as Julio if last year is any indication. There is also talk about the Yankees calling up Austin Wells and if he can do half of what he's doing in the minors and lead them to a 2nd Wildcard Spot could be a nice return as well.

Julio prices have really cratered recently. To the point that I’m finally able to buy some!

[ThoseBackPages]

Same, but force my to hold off a bit right around now. I’ll still add when it’s the right card at the right price. I just know whatever card I’m jonesing for now, will most likely be cheaper in Nov-Dec.

man, i hope youre right! im chasing gold refractors

[roro17]

Arenado

[finfangfan]

An increase from where they are already?

Hmm… a lot of investors are hoping you’re right! Haha

If Ohtani gets traded to the Dodgers, Yankees, or whoever then there will be a new fan base looking to pick up his cards. Seems like players being traded to new teams are safe bets for an uptick.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

If Ohtani gets traded to the Dodgers, Yankees, or whoever then there will be a new fan base looking to pick up his cards. Seems like players being traded to new teams are safe bets for an uptick.

True.

[netmasters]

I like your list. I might add Corey Seager, Betts/Freeman, and Jose Ramirez.

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As someone with Betts/Freeman, and Jose Ramirez I can tell you they never get hobby love no matter how great they are year in and year out. I am kinda joking but not really :confused:

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

As someone with Betts/Freeman, and Jose Ramirez I can tell you they never get hobby love no matter how great they are year in and year out. I am kinda joking but not really :confused:

Freeman has already led his team to a WS win, and it didn’t have a major boost to his hobby love. They don’t give his cards away for free, but you rarely see people on here excited to show off their new Freddie pickup.

[dream34]

Gallen & Bichette

Wild Card: Leody

[eye4talent]

It’s time for a Corey Seager run.


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[ObanMontecristo]

In terms of “hobby love,” I think you’re looking at 3 potential reasons why card values/demand could jump up significantly in the second half:

-Potential record breakers or milestones- Ohtani and Arraez? I don’t expect either of them to get there, but I guess it’s possible

-MVP campaigns- Ohtani, Acuna are probably the favorites at this point and would get the most hobby love. Maybe Betts or Freeman, if Acuna slows down.

-Rookie of the Year or big call-ups- not sure we’ll see any other huge call ups at this point. I expect Carroll vs. Elly will be the big (and most likely) story line, if they keep up their current pace. Could see Francisco Alvarez as a dark-horse (maybe not ROY, but if he keeps hitting homers at such a big rate as a rookie catcher). I could also see interest rising for Jung, Yoshida or Gunnar if one of them starts making a convincing case for AL ROY…

[DeegsHobby]

Josh Jung easy. Great chance at ROY and a big part of the Rangers getting back to the playoffs?

Otherwise I can't see too many other names popping off. Acuña Jr and Ohtani etc. are already near locks for MVPs, maybe Acuña Jr if he gets to 40/40.

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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

In terms of “hobby love,” I think you’re looking at 3 potential reasons why card values/demand could jump up significantly in the second half:

-Potential record breakers or milestones- Ohtani and Arraez? I don’t expect either of them to get there, but I guess it’s possible

-MVP campaigns- Ohtani, Acuna are probably the favorites at this point and would get the most hobby love. Maybe Betts or Freeman, if Acuna slows down.

-Rookie of the Year or big call-ups- not sure we’ll see any other huge call ups at this point. I expect Carroll vs. Elly will be the big (and most likely) story line, if they keep up their current pace. Could see Francisco Alvarez as a dark-horse (maybe not ROY, but if he keeps hitting homers at such a big rate as a rookie catcher). I could also see interest rising for Jung, Yoshida or Gunnar if one of them starts making a convincing case for AL ROY…

All good points, but I feel like Ohtani and Acuna already have this year’s MVP Awards baked into their prices. Along with Carroll for NL ROY. Whereas someone like Bichette is fully capable of having a monster second half and really seeing a big jump for where he is now.

[oddstuff]

Usually takes some sort of major 2nd half event (such as chase for 40/40, 63 hrs, .400 batting avg, big name trade to a big market with a lot of investors dollars) to move the needle A LOT. Most likely will only see small percentage upward movements in terms of hobby value for the players already mentioned...but there are also some who are betting on a major event happening and investing now in those players/pushing prices upwards (there's been a lot of buying activity on Ohtani/2018 unopened material in these past few weeks...people stocking up for an even bigger price hike the rest of the season). Another player could go on a 8 hr/10 game streak or throw a couple of shut outs with double digit Ks. A lot of WAR talk on the forum here...but for the average fan, the long ball and shut down wins/Ks still captures the imagination which leads to FOMO.

[johnlocke36]

Corey Seagar. Just posted a 4 war first half in 60 games, for comps or oak ohtani around 6.5 for 90 gsmes

[GoodMorning]

Jesus Luzardo

[IronCladLou]

Wander.

[eye4talent]

Jesus Luzardo


Considering that I think he’ll prove to be the second coming of Johan Santana over the next few months, I agree with this.


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Jesus Luzardo

Amen.

He’s a definite dark horse NL Cy Young candidate (I don’t think he’ll win though).

[corockies]

Keep an eye on Ezequiel Tovar. Since the Rockies are horrible he has nothing to play for but stats. I could see his season finishing up as one of the strongest for a 21 year old.

[SupermanBrandon]

Which player do you think is going to see the biggest boost in hobby love for where they are now at this moment?

I’m eyeing Matt Olson and Kyle Tucker if either of them plays a big part in their team’s playoff run.

Olson just hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 1st inning

[Qubits]

Vladdy could have a nice 2nd half.

First AB after the derby? Home run.

[eye4talent]

Keep an eye on Ezequiel Tovar. Since the Rockies are horrible he has nothing to play for but stats. I could see his season finishing up as one of the strongest for a 21 year old.


I really like the progress he’s been making. I’d be surprised if the hobby gives him much love this year, but he could be a great offseason buy. He’s still just 21 and looking like a future all-star.


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Olson just hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 1st inning

Buy…?

What will be interesting to see, a sign of actual hobby love, is if people start posting their nice Matt Olson cards (especially ones they aren’t looking to sell).

[Biohazarddfl]

Buy…?



What will be interesting to see, a sign of actual hobby love, is if people start posting their nice Matt Olson cards (especially ones they aren’t looking to sell).If Freddie Freeman doesn't get hobby love, how will Olson? I think the playoff run will help, don't get me wrong, but isn't he a 29 year old with a 20war?

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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

If Freddie Freeman doesn't get hobby love, how will Olson? I think the playoff run will help, don't get me wrong, but isn't he a 29 year old with a 20war?

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Yeah, you’re right. The odds are against him, for sure. Just trying to think of some under the radar guys who could become hobby darlings. Bichette, even with all the love he gets here, is still in a position to see a real boost.

[Biohazarddfl]

Yeah, you’re right. The odds are against him, for sure. Just trying to think of some under the radar guys who could become hobby darlings. Bichette, even with all the love he gets here, is still in a position to see a real boost.I was thinking along the lines of, by the end of the season, who might see the highest return or growth from now til then. Under that test, Olson, Tucker, Seager, Ramirez, and a handful of others meet the test because they have a path to the playoffs and can make noise. If the test is, "who becomes a hobby darling", that is a really tough call.

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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I was thinking along the lines of, by the end of the season, who might see the highest return or growth from now til then. Under that test, Olson, Tucker, Seager, Ramirez, and a handful of others meet the test because they have a path to the playoffs and can make noise. If the test is, "who becomes a hobby darling", that is a really tough call.

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I think a key element of that is collectors (actual collectors) waiting for it and wanting it to happen. I think Seager and Tucker have that.

[StateEx]

Yeah, you’re right. The odds are against him, for sure. Just trying to think of some under the radar guys who could become hobby darlings. Bichette, even with all the love he gets here, is still in a position to see a real boost.

Agree re Bichette. I wonder if there will be a burst of love for Miggy as he approaches the end of his career. Especially if he can get his average up another 10 points or so.

[eye4talent]

If Freddie Freeman doesn't get hobby love, how will Olson? I think the playoff run will help, don't get me wrong, but isn't he a 29 year old with a 20war?

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Freeman gets some hobby love. He’s not Mike Trout, but his cards fetch strong prices. For instance, a raw 2011 Finest green refractor just went for $200.

But Olson, being a career .250 hitter, would have to hit 50 HR and be a World Series hero to overcome the stigma of being a one-trick pony.


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[FlyingDutchman]

I’ll toss out a name that hasn’t been mentioned yet…Riley Greene. I’m not sure if Detroit players get much hobby love, but I think with Greene missing all of June and probably being overshadowed in the past by Torkelson hype he could be good candidate to see a jump.

Or maybe I’m just being optimistic he’ll make a compelling case for the hobby to show him some love since he’s on my fantasy team!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I’ll toss out a name that hasn’t been mentioned yet…Riley Greene. I’m not sure if Detroit players get much hobby love, but I think with Greene missing all of June and probably being overshadowed in the past by Torkelson hype he could be good candidate to see a jump.

Or maybe I’m just being optimistic he’ll make a compelling case for the hobby to show him some love since he’s on my fantasy team!

Don’t get me started on Riley Greene! I’m a big fan of his, but he gets shockingly little love here.

[peterose4hof]

Hitters: Bryan de la Cruz & Vladdy Jr.

Pitchers: Hunter Greene & Kenley Jansen

[base set]

Castellanos has better numbers than Harper right now.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Castellanos has better numbers than Harper right now.

Which shows just how odd “hobby love” can be. It goes beyond stats.

[base set]

Which shows just how odd “hobby love” can be. It goes beyond stats.

There is only one key Hobby Love stat, and it is on the back of almost every baseball card: Age.

re: Freeman - in any given checklist holding one of his cards, that will be one of the stronger cards value wise, even mid-career with those non-RC cards no one cares about. He has collectors.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

There is only one key Hobby Love stat, and it is on the back of almost every baseball card: Age.

re: Freeman - in any given checklist holding one of his cards, that will be one of the stronger cards value wise, even mid-career with those non-RC cards no one cares about. He has collectors.

Age is a big factor in the beginning of hobby love, that’s for sure. After that though, actual performance, and a lot intangibles come into play.

[ObanMontecristo]

There’s also guys who had RCs in recent years, who are still young-ish and may have had some hobby hype in the past, but now they are putting together pretty good full seasons where they might end up with really strong stat lines. I’m thinking about guys like Luis Robert, Wander Franco, Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan. If those guys end up with really strong finishes, I could see them getting a little more hobby love.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

There’s also guys who had RCs in recent years, who are still young-ish and may have had some hobby hype in the past, but now they are putting together pretty good full seasons where they might end up with really strong stat lines. I’m thinking about guys like Luis Robert, Wander Franco, Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan. If those guys end up with really strong finishes, I could see them getting a little more hobby love.

Yeah, I could definitely see LouBob taking off in the 2nd half. People are still tepid from being burned in the past (I’m talking about me here).

[BigSlim16]

A little surprised Devers hasn’t been mentioned


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[DonnieBaseball2]

Cody Bellinger IF he gets traded to the Yanks. That porch was made for that swing

[KhalDrogo]

Consider that the only notable players who have seen a rise in pricing the last three months are Acuna (flat to slightly up), Bichette (flat to slightly up), Carroll (up big), Elly (up big), and Ohtani (up big). So it's very likely that nobody has a hobby second half that's worth writing home about.

[seanbros55]

Raffy. Devers.

I'm predicting a big 2nd half for him.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Which player do you think is going to see the biggest boost in hobby love for where they are now at this moment?

I’m eyeing Matt Olson and Kyle Tucker if either of them plays a big part in their team’s playoff run.

I mean, Olson is trying…

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Looks like the correct answer was Bobby Witt Jr.

With an Honorable Mention to Matt Olsen.

[Biohazarddfl]

Looks like the correct answer was Bobby Witt Jr.

With an Honorable Mention to Matt Olsen.Olson?

Top 10 in WAR since the OP (some cool surprises here)

Betts
Julio
Freeman
Witt
Acuna
Bregman
Bellinger
Ohtani
Kim
Seager with 50 less plate appearances
Tied for 10th, only pitcher on the list... Freddy Peralta




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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Olson?

Top 10 in WAR since the OP (some cool surprises here)

Betts
Julio
Freeman
Witt
Acuna
Bregman
Bellinger
Ohtani
Kim
Seager with 50 less plate appearances
Tied for 10th, only pitcher on the list... Freddy Peralta




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Just looking at “hobby love increase from the second half” specifically. Olsen saw a slight bump (from my anecdotal observations). A lot of the names you listed have actually seen a slight decline, were stagnant, or already had a lot of love from the 1st half.

[Biohazarddfl]

Uh huh.

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[rwperu34]

My last Price Index Update was August 22. The one before that was July 20, just a few days after this thread was created. During that time, of the guys in my Index there were only two that were up over 20%: J-Rod (42%) and Witt (33%), with Acuna right at 20%.

The market itself was flat during that time. The only big plop went to Wander, who lost over half of his value on the scandal.

I wont be updating again until mid September, at the earliest. I expect most MLB players to drop in value. Prospects could be a mixed bag as lists get updates and AFL rosters get announced.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

My last Price Index Update was August 22. The one before that was July 20, just a few days after this thread was created. During that time, of the guys in my Index there were only two that were up over 20%: J-Rod (42%) and Witt (33%), with Acuna right at 20%.

The market itself was flat during that time. The only big plop went to Wander, who lost over half of his value on the scandal.

I wont be updating again until mid September, at the earliest. I expect most MLB players to drop in value. Prospects could be a mixed bag as lists get updates and AFL rosters get announced.

Interesting to see J-Rod up so much, only because he was so high already.

[Twalk1975]

I wasn't really following him too closely in the first half, but I felt like Gunnar Henderson got off to a slow start, although maybe the hobby love was already there. I went to watch the D'backs play the O's over the weekend, and that dude is impressive. I may be looking into picking up some of his stuff over the next few months.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I wasn't really following him too closely in the first half, but I felt like Gunnar Henderson got off to a slow start, although maybe the hobby love was already there. I went to watch the D'backs play the O's over the weekend, and that dude is impressive. I may be looking into picking up some of his stuff over the next few months.

Gunnar started off super super way high.

[drumrun]

Shouldnt Gleyber be in this talk. 800 OPS, 24 hrs, 272 av. Seems to be a corner stone of the Yanks moving forward.

[pewe]

Interesting to see J-Rod up so much, only because he was so high already.


Prices are back to off-season… his prices had dipped in the 1st half of the season, but regained their prior levels recently


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Prices are back to off-season… his prices had dipped in the 1st half of the season, but regained their prior levels recently


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They dipped so low that even I bought a J-Rod card! He’s been kind of a stay-away for me since I consider him overpriced. He’s pretty much back to being overpriced for me.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Shouldnt Gleyber be in this talk. 800 OPS, 24 hrs, 272 av. Seems to be a corner stone of the Yanks moving forward.

Where was his hobby love at the All Star Break and where is it now?

[pewe]

They dipped so low that even I bought a J-Rod card! He’s been kind of a stay-away for me since I consider him overpriced. He’s pretty much back to being overpriced for me.


Best way to figure out if something is over priced??? Ask: is pewe buying it? If “yes”. Clearly over priced ;)


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Best way to figure out if something is over priced??? Ask: is pewe buying it? If “yes”. Clearly over priced ;)


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:cry:

[atk825]

Just from my normal watching, I'd guess Mookie key cards like his flagship RC have ticked up maybe 10-20%.

[rwperu34]

Interesting to see J-Rod up so much, only because he was so high already.

Keep in mind I think my update was directly after that 17 hits in four game performance where he was in the news every single minute. As of then, he was still down 25% vs last offseason and OD. His offseason runup was wiped out by the start of the season.

Prior to that hot streak he had lost about 45% of his value from the offseason and over half of his value from early Feb. peak.

[eye4talent]

Prices are back to off-season… his prices had dipped in the 1st half of the season, but regained their prior levels recently


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Wait, when did the PEWE return?? We thought maybe you had gotten in a fatal car accident or gone to prison for embezzlement.


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[rwperu34]

I wasn't really following him too closely in the first half, but I felt like Gunnar Henderson got off to a slow start, although maybe the hobby love was already there. I went to watch the D'backs play the O's over the weekend, and that dude is impressive. I may be looking into picking up some of his stuff over the next few months.

Gunnar has been a wild ride this year. He was super hot in the offseason, chalking a 75% gain going into the season. Then he got off to a slow start and lost all of that and then some. Then his little hot streak put him in position to show a gain for the year.

I went to a D'backs vs O's game over the weekend! The one where the Orioles had 7 straight hits, none of them less than 100 MPH off the bat, and won 7-3.