Prospecting

[Blake050]

I'm a little new to soccer, so trying to learn as much as I can from a hobby perspective. I have been strictly baseball and basketball in the past.

I usually like to pick up some of the second-tier rookies for cheap. If anyone else does this, I'm interested in what some of your evaluation criteria are, and any other young players you like.

I'm currently buying cards of these guys:

Iling Junior
Ekitike
Emery
Brennan Johnson

[YayNJ]

Save your money on all of those.

[mfw13]

Realistically, it's very difficult to successfully prospect in soccer due to the fact that it is a team game with few meaningful individual statistics.

You've essentially had four guys make it to the top tier in 20+ years (Messi, CR7, Mbappe, and Haaland). And if you aren't in the top tier, you just blend into the woodwork, no matter how good you actually are on the pitch.

Add in the fact that players are constantly switching clubs, and it becomes very difficult for any player to build a market for his cards.

Even players like Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, who have starred for both big clubs (Real Madrid), and done well at the World Cup, are largely afterthoughts in the collecting world, in that only die-hard soccer fans know who they are.

[rentz]

its not like the other sports because you have guys who are basically kids who might get some hype then go out on indefinite loans and never pan out.

And now they're getting so many rookie cards the value will go down even if they hit because so many options.

[Blake050]

Thanks for the info everyone. It does seems like there is an extremely small top tier in soccer, unlike other sports.

[kingb22]

I think the other complication in soccer is you only have 8-10 teams that would matter in terms of card value - so the prospect has to eventually reach one of those teams to have relevance. Coming into the summer Victor Osimhen was one of the hotter names out there - I sold a fairly rare PSA 10 (Mosaic Serie A, Red Mosaic) for ~ $350. Since he didn't move from Napoli to one of those big clubs that card is down to maybe $200 (and not much interest). If he'd moved to Man U, it would be $500+. So embedded into those prospect prices, you have an assumption they'll make it to a big club - but that funnel is pretty narrow. Arguably the biggest young prospect outside of top club today is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (of Napoli). He has very few cards, so his prices are very high. But if he stays at Napoli those prices will drop. If he moves to a big club and is just .. good .. those prices will drop. He has to thread the needle (superstar at a big club) to have a strong upside.

While in most sports you have teams that drive a premium (Yankees being the biggest example), the variance of price among teams is no where near it is in soccer.

Don't get me wrong - I love prospecting and it's how I collect in Soccer - but it's a lot harder than most other sports. The upside is you can hit bigger home runs because you have some crazy low print runs (like Bukayo Saka) - but you'll also whiff a lot.

[Blake050]

I think the other complication in soccer is you only have 8-10 teams that would matter in terms of card value - so the prospect has to eventually reach one of those teams to have relevance. Coming into the summer Victor Osimhen was one of the hotter names out there - I sold a fairly rare PSA 10 (Mosaic Serie A, Red Mosaic) for ~ $350. Since he didn't move from Napoli to one of those big clubs that card is down to maybe $200 (and not much interest). If he'd moved to Man U, it would be $500+. So embedded into those prospect prices, you have an assumption they'll make it to a big club - but that funnel is pretty narrow. Arguably the biggest young prospect outside of top club today is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (of Napoli). He has very few cards, so his prices are very high. But if he stays at Napoli those prices will drop. If he moves to a big club and is just .. good .. those prices will drop. He has to thread the needle (superstar at a big club) to have a strong upside.

While in most sports you have teams that drive a premium (Yankees being the biggest example), the variance of price among teams is no where near it is in soccer.

Don't get me wrong - I love prospecting and it's how I collect in Soccer - but it's a lot harder than most other sports. The upside is you can hit bigger home runs because you have some crazy low print runs (like Bukayo Saka) - but you'll also whiff a lot.

That's a good point about the popularity of the team. Newb question, but what are the teams that command the big premiums? It seems like these are?

Man U
Man City (maybe just because of Haaland?)
PSG
Barcelona
Madrid

[YayNJ]

Thanks for the info everyone. It does seems like there is an extremely small top tier in soccer, unlike other sports.

There's hundreds of teams meaning thousands of players, compared to just the one league in the NBA, NFL and to a lesser extent Baseball with Minor League. Soccer is domestic leagues, continental competition and international competition.

The bar has to be higher.

For me, rookie prospecting in soccer is a thankless task - 99% of the 'rookies' will end up being next to 'worthless' a couple of years down the line. The delusional hype in the hobby around completely average talents (like in baseball) is also absurd. Hype that bears no comparison to real life. You will see rookies most collectors have never heard of going for decent numbers just because they play for a decent side - see Elanga, Kubo, Maddison etc etc in recent years. The hobby fapping over Jadon Sancho was ludicrous. Cho, Julian Alvarez, Garnacho, Mudryk & Gnonto are five good examples from this years 'class' that have got people taking out credit cards and loans that will go on to have nice careers I'm sure, but nothing special.

It's fun, but thankless.

I've given up on it. I'm 80% invested now in buying vintage, modern cards of 'vets' and world class players like Modric, Iniesta, Xavi etc.

At the moment the hobby hope is Erling Haaland and in my humble opinion, Jude Bellingham... but he's not a striker, so a lot of people don't really care.

There's others such as Vinicius Jr and Pedri, but they are always going to be the bracket (or two) below, again, in my opinion only.

[rentz]

I think the other complication in soccer is you only have 8-10 teams that would matter in terms of card value - so the prospect has to eventually reach one of those teams to have relevance. Coming into the summer Victor Osimhen was one of the hotter names out there - I sold a fairly rare PSA 10 (Mosaic Serie A, Red Mosaic) for ~ $350. Since he didn't move from Napoli to one of those big clubs that card is down to maybe $200 (and not much interest). If he'd moved to Man U, it would be $500+. So embedded into those prospect prices, you have an assumption they'll make it to a big club - but that funnel is pretty narrow. Arguably the biggest young prospect outside of top club today is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (of Napoli). He has very few cards, so his prices are very high. But if he stays at Napoli those prices will drop. If he moves to a big club and is just .. good .. those prices will drop. He has to thread the needle (superstar at a big club) to have a strong upside.

While in most sports you have teams that drive a premium (Yankees being the biggest example), the variance of price among teams is no where near it is in soccer.

Don't get me wrong - I love prospecting and it's how I collect in Soccer - but it's a lot harder than most other sports. The upside is you can hit bigger home runs because you have some crazy low print runs (like Bukayo Saka) - but you'll also whiff a lot.


I'm still kicking myself for not collecting soccer in 2019-20 season and missing the boat on the saka rookie.

right now these guys all just have too many rookie cards that its not worth chasing.

[YayNJ]

Don't forget Saka has the 2019 tabloid that came out a year before the Chronicles and Impeccable Metal. Sure it's a sticker, but nice to have. It's cheap too, thanks to American collectors aversion to stickers :D

https://www.picclickimg.com/XukAAOSwoLBjwAc~/Panini-Tabloid-2019-Bukayo-Saka-Rookie-Sticker.webp

[rentz]

Don't forget Saka has the 2019 tabloid that came out a year before the Chronicles and Impeccable Metal. Sure it's a sticker, but nice to have. It's cheap too, thanks to American collectors aversion to stickers :D

https://www.picclickimg.com/XukAAOSwoLBjwAc~/Panini-Tabloid-2019-Bukayo-Saka-Rookie-Sticker.webp

yeah ive had a watch list for one biding my time for a good one to show up at a price i like. but way cheaper than chronicles

[wubh]

I'll add to the 'soccer prospecting is hard' crew.

In baseball, you have some very defined prospecting benchmarks to buy/hold/sell (top prospects lists released, players getting promoted in the minors, getting called up, doing well in the majors) which you lack in soccer given how many leagues and competitions are happening around the year.

I think there are more similarities with soccer and basketball. Most players have a very small window where they can get hot (if ever) but the shine wears off quickly since there's only a handful of 'star' narratives that the media and Twitter can push.

And for many, their window will end not long after their rookie year (or even during their rookie year). Just look at rookie prices for most guys in their second and third years, even when they develop modestly, especially with current print runs.

Or when a guy like Mikal Bridges breaks out in year 5 to become a very, very good player, will the hobby still care when there is also a new group of rookies who don't have any cards and theoretical potential? What would a guy like Brennan Johnson need to do to sustain hobby interest?

[kingb22]

That's a good point about the popularity of the team. Newb question, but what are the teams that command the big premiums? It seems like these are?

Man U
Man City (maybe just because of Haaland?)
PSG
Barcelona
Madrid

Arsenal
Liverpool

PSG longer term is still TBD - they bought players who had a strong market but historically they aren't a big name club

Teams like Juve, AC Milan and Bayern have big global fans bases but don't necessarily move the needle in a big way on prices

I'm sure I'm overlooking some too so apologies in advance

[rentz]

Arsenal
Liverpool

PSG longer term is still TBD - they bought players who had a strong market but historically they aren't a big name club

Teams like Juve, AC Milan and Bayern have big global fans bases but don't necessarily move the needle in a big way on prices

I'm sure I'm overlooking some too so apologies in advance

I'm hoping with serie a and bundesliga having US tv / streaming now that those leagues will get more attention.

[taylorjt2118]

I've a just started prospecting in Soccer cards as well. I'm sticking with players within the US Men's Program for now as it's just easier for me to keep track of, and it's relatively cheaper (lower floor and lower ceiling since so many start in the MLS). Started investing heavily in players like Gaga Slonina, Caden Clark, and Jack McGlynn in hopes that they have an impact in 2026 and 2030.

[mfw13]

I'm hoping with serie a and bundesliga having US tv / streaming now that those leagues will get more attention.

The problem for both of those leagues is that they keep on losing talent due to the fact that they can't compete financially with the EPL. At no point in the past could you have imagined a homegrown AC Milan star like Sandro Tonali moving to a club like Newcastle.

Serie A is a lot of fun because it's the one big league in Europe that is truly competitive (5-6 different clubs will have a decent shot at the Scudetto this year). But it's stuck with CBS, who shunts most matches to streaming on Paramount+ instead of showing them on live TV.

The Bundesliga is less interesting because of Bayern Munich's dominance.

[rentz]

The problem for both of those leagues is that they keep on losing talent due to the fact that they can't compete financially with the EPL. At no point in the past could you have imagined a homegrown AC Milan star like Sandro Tonali moving to a club like Newcastle.

Serie A is a lot of fun because it's the one big league in Europe that is truly competitive (5-6 different clubs will have a decent shot at the Scudetto this year). But it's stuck with CBS, who shunts most matches to streaming on Paramount+ instead of showing them on live TV.

The Bundesliga is less interesting because of Bayern Munich's dominance.

yeah i got paramount plus and plan to follow serie a more closely this season.
i dont remember them having it last year, if they did i never noticed as i only used it for CL and Europa

[kingb22]

yeah i got paramount plus and plan to follow serie a more closely this season.
i dont remember them having it last year, if they did i never noticed as i only used it for CL and Europa

Paramount had Serie A last year also, which highlights part of their problem. (Scottish Prem too I think)

[YayNJ]

Serie A is a lot of fun because it's the one big league in Europe that is truly competitive (5-6 different clubs will have a decent shot at the Scudetto this year).

It's also the only league with rampant corruption and match fixing.

and of the last 18 seasons, 15 have been won by Juventus or Inter... The EPL has had three regular champions in the same period, Chelsea, Man Utd and Manchester City winning 16 of the 18 between them. Ligue 1 over the same period, PSG and Lyon have won 13 times. So believe it or not, Italy over the medium term is actually only just above Germany in competitiveness, and behind France and England.

None of it is great for the game, but a few odd seasons, with a lot to do with corruption don't make Serie A a competitive league :D

[rentz]

It's also the only league with rampant corruption and match fixing.

*cough*Juventus*cough*

[kingb22]

Paramount had Serie A last year also, which highlights part of their problem. (Scottish Prem too I think)

One other quick thing on this - if you are used to the high-energy two+ commentator booths of the EPL, the Serie A coverage can be a bit blah. The Bundesliga on ESPN can feel that way, but if you are watching a Dortmund game for example the energy of the crowd can compensate.

[Vinny1984]

It seems like many here are viewing prospecting as an all or nothing. If you’re looking for the next GOAT, you’re flat out just doing it wrong. If you bought Haaland at the cheapest entry point and are still holding, you got EXTREMELY lucky.

Point being is it’s all about entry/exit points. There are countless examples of turning a $5 rookie into $10 in the matter of a week/month/year. That’s a 2x and pretty damn good in any market.

I also don’t understand the notion of only Ronaldo/Messi/Mbappe/Haaland sell. Literally every young player I’ve been targeting has 10+ eBay sales per day. Even the aging stars (De Bruyne/Salah/Kane/etc sell well. It’s not new car money like the goats but it’s still very liquid.

[rentz]

It seems like many here are viewing prospecting as an all or nothing. If you’re looking for the next GOAT, you’re flat out just doing it wrong. If you bought Haaland at the cheapest entry point and are still holding, you got EXTREMELY lucky.

Point being is it’s all about entry/exit points. There are countless examples of turning a $5 rookie into $10 in the matter of a week/month/year. That’s a 2x and pretty damn good in any market.

I also don’t understand the notion of only Ronaldo/Messi/Mbappe/Haaland sell. Literally every young player I’ve been targeting has 10+ eBay sales per day. Even the aging stars (De Bruyne/Salah/Kane/etc sell well. It’s not new car money like the goats but it’s still very liquid.


some good examples right now are these serie A guys, their select and chronicles are going for good money right now easy flips.
long term i dont see it staying as more and more "rc" get printed.

i'm going to sell some garnacho's soon and take that money to buy pc

[mfw13]

It seems like many here are viewing prospecting as an all or nothing. If you’re looking for the next GOAT, you’re flat out just doing it wrong. If you bought Haaland at the cheapest entry point and are still holding, you got EXTREMELY lucky.

Point being is it’s all about entry/exit points. There are countless examples of turning a $5 rookie into $10 in the matter of a week/month/year. That’s a 2x and pretty damn good in any market.

I also don’t understand the notion of only Ronaldo/Messi/Mbappe/Haaland sell. Literally every young player I’ve been targeting has 10+ eBay sales per day. Even the aging stars (De Bruyne/Salah/Kane/etc sell well. It’s not new car money like the goats but it’s still very liquid.

Nobody ever said that Ronaldo/Messi/Mbappe/Haaland are the only players that sell. They're just the only players to have become hobby GOATs over the past 20 years.

[Blake050]

So it's basically unanimous that Ronaldo, Messi, Haaland, and Mbappe comprise the top tier. Ronaldo is 38 and Messi is 36, and likely won't be playing for much longer at a high level. Haaland and Mbappe are 23 and 24, respectively, and will hopefully have long careers. But with just those two in the top tier, there would be a vacuum. Who are the young players with the best chance to move into the top tier, as far as hobby collectibility?

Vini, Jude, Gavi, Garnacho, Alvarez, Kvaratskhelia, etc?

[mfw13]

So it's basically unanimous that Ronaldo, Messi, Haaland, and Mbappe comprise the top tier. Ronaldo is 38 and Messi is 36, and likely won't be playing for much longer at a high level. Haaland and Mbappe are 23 and 24, respectively, and will hopefully have long careers. But with just those two in the top tier, there would be a vacuum. Who are the young players with the best chance to move into the top tier, as far as hobby collectibility?

Vini, Jude, Gavi, Garnacho, Alvarez, Kvaratskhelia, etc?

The problem is that the super-clubs have so much talent that it's hard for any individual player to really have a huge impact at the club level.

Example of this are players like Luka Modric and Kevin DeBruyne....both have had a tremendous amount of success at the club level and led their national teams to their best results in a generation. Yet while their cards sell for solid prices, those prices are a fraction of what the "Big Four" sell for.

So I would say that the best bets are Vini Jr. (if he can lead Brazil to their first World Cup title in 24 years) or Kvara (if he can lead Napoli to a UCL title and get Georgia to the Euros/WC).

But Kvara is more likely to get sold by Napoli to a bigger club where he will lose playing time and get lost in the shuffle.

[YayNJ]

Who are the young players with the best chance to move into the top tier, as far as hobby collectibility?

Vini, Jude, Gavi, Garnacho, Alvarez, Kvaratskhelia, etc?

None of the above. What are you basing Garnacho on exactly? You've missed off Saka, who is considerably younger than Vini and Alvarez and arguably better than both, and Pedri who is 20, and a much better player than Gavi.
The only two players anywhere near 'top tier' are Haaland and Mbappe, and Mbappe has damaged his reputation considerably.

It's really easy to get carried away with hobby hype, but 99% of these players aren't worth anything near the prices they are going for.

[wubh]

Started investing heavily in players like Gaga Slonina, Caden Clark, and Jack McGlynn in hopes that they have an impact in 2026 and 2030.

Hope you have fun building your collection. But be careful with these guys. Gaga and Caden had their spike already and most players, unless they become true stars, won't have a second peak. Especially goalies.

I also think Caden is in a really bad spot developmentally. He's hardly played any meaningful minutes these past 2 years, a rumored loan to FC Twente fizzled out, he was beaten out by other youth players in the US pool for the U20 WC, and Leipzig has tons of better options than him.

I love McGylnn and have a handful of his cards and think he might have the best left foot in the USMNT pool. But I'm a bit concerned about him making the leap due to average athleticism, which I think contributes to difficulty commanding more of the game from a central mid position. There's nothing wrong with peaking as a high level MLS player/non-EUFA competitions Euro squad player but that won't be good for his hobby value.

[Gin&Juice]

If you haven’t seen it, make sure to check out the ball McGlynn played to Uhre for the Union’s second goal last night. Class.

[YayNJ]

People who are chasing them - what is it you see exactly in Garnacho and Arda Guler that justifies the hobby hype.

[tupacgr13]

Garnacho's first two games were absolutely abysmal. I dont get the hype for this player. Not judging how good he can become but why overpay that much for him.

[YayNJ]

I don't understand it either, and I'm not sure I will get it. I keep asking what it is he excels at and nobody can seem to give me a proper answer on hobby groups, other than 'Man Utd'. He also seems to have a bit of a 'made it already' attitude.

So why is everyone throwing money at him?

When you look at his age group, it becomes apparent just how far off he is of his peers. Saka, Bellingham, Wirtz, Musiala, Camavinga, Pedri, Gvardiol etc etc etc.. He's no Sidney Raebiger, but there's some serious levels between him and the likes of Bellingham. I'll make a prediction - kid is at a mid-table Spanish club within 2 years.

[kingb22]

Garnacho's first two games were absolutely abysmal. I dont get the hype for this player. Not judging how good he can become but why overpay that much for him.

Or even why he's different than Elanga, who you can find for basically nothing today. It was exciting when he scored some impactful goals early on last year but there's really not been much since. I see Mason Greenwood is finally leaving Man U but since his issues they've tried to put similar young guys in his role and they were average players at best.

[rentz]

I don't understand it either, and I'm not sure I will get it. I keep asking what it is he excels at and nobody can seem to give me a proper answer on hobby groups, other than 'Man Utd'. He also seems to have a bit of a 'made it already' attitude.

So why is everyone throwing money at him?

When you look at his age group, it becomes apparent just how far off he is of his peers. Saka, Bellingham, Wirtz, Musiala, Camavinga, Pedri, Gvardiol etc etc etc.. He's no Sidney Raebiger, but there's some serious levels between him and the likes of Bellingham. I'll make a prediction - kid is at a mid-table Spanish club within 2 years.

I think its a combination of Argentina + Man United

I'll gladly continue to sell my Garnacho pulls though so i'm not complaining

[YayNJ]

Indeed, get that cash while you can :D

[tupacgr13]

These days I am trying to collect as many World cup numbered prizms I can. You can find them in the market for 1$-2$ each for players like Gravenberch or De Ligt or Noa Lang even Doku(of course before the Man. City move). I just don't see how these cards are going to lose totally their value. I get it that they are overprinted but a lot of collectors would want their national team in the future even if the player on the card is kinda crap(how crap can a player be to make it to the nt). Personally I have overpaid some greek national team cards which probably mean nothing to most of the people in the hobby but I like them and we have been to the world cup only three times in our history. I consider them as a good opportunity for someone to prospect.

[cardbuster]

Some points of view, from someone working in football, who's been collecting the sport for almost 30 years now:

*prospecting is a bit like poker. Yeah, you can calculate the risks and the ROI, but end of the day, it's a gamble. Especially in such a volatile sport such as this one.

**media can make or break a player. Take any hard-working class act from the Premier League, who doesn't get the spotlight on social media or the papers, his cards will be worth close to nothing at any given point of his career.

***big teams act like advertising agencies. The more notorious you are, the more you can get away with. Let's take Chelsea and United for that matter. Some of their players get through the market without any real achievements, but only because of the hype. Not a sustainable way to do it, on the long run, but time will tell. Until then, getting your name tied to one these behemots has got you covered in the short term, even as an under-par player.

****find value where value is due. There are a couple of exceptions, one or two every year, but in terms of stardom, you'll have to take the risk which I mentioned in point one. Currently, my money is on Jude at Real. He's off to a great start, has a good speech, a good relationship with the media and he's backed-up by the biggest club of them all. Not a sure bet, but I'm buying every graded / raw stuff with him, even from the Birmingham and Dortmund periods.

*****try and understand the mechanics. Much like it's hard for us here in Europe to grasp the definition of the NBA/NFL/MLB/NHL phenomenon, it works both ways. However, football (soccer) has a huge advantage over any other sport. It's global, and that's a fact. And it's one thing if you prospect a kid from college who may or may not land a spot in a pro team, and it's another to target a young player who's already playing for a team that could win it all (a good example would be the kids who keep emerging from La Masia, Barcelona's own school).

End of the day, it's all about calculated rushs and eventually having fun. If you truly enjoy a sport, collecting or investing become less stressful.

I will follow up on this matter, and if anyone has a question in regards to anything football-related (especially European football), I'll be more than glad to respond.

Cheers!

[Ianhatcher]

If you are looking for best in the world type players just watch the video on Youtube "Mbappé is Good but... Messi & Ronaldo were Monsters at 19!" That's the level of talent you want to see in a young player.

Players need to do those type of things AND they need to be be playing for a team that has International Potential.

Anything else is pretty much what young player is getting scouted by Real Madrid, Barcelona and the EPL's top 6 teams or so and getting small bumps in prices when they transfer. I stopped playing that game a while ago because wax is too expensive these days to take chances on guys like Garnacho and Mudryk and honestly they aren't doing the things that impress me anyway.

These days I buy Real Madrid and focus on CR7, Messi, Haaland and Mbappe and the later pretty much in case they do play at Real Madrid.

Any player worth their salt these days the buy in risk just seems way too high from the go if opening wax or joining breaks. Wait a few months and just buy singles if you like a player.

[Meets1]

If you are looking for best in the world type players just watch the video on Youtube "Mbappé is Good but... Messi & Ronaldo were Monsters at 19!" That's the level of talent you want to see in a young player.

Players need to do those type of things AND they need to be be playing for a team that has International Potential.

Anything else is pretty much what young player is getting scouted by Real Madrid, Barcelona and the EPL's top 6 teams or so and getting small bumps in prices when they transfer. I stopped playing that game a while ago because wax is too expensive these days to take chances on guys like Garnacho and Mudryk and honestly they aren't doing the things that impress me anyway.

These days I buy Real Madrid and focus on CR7, Messi, Haaland and Mbappe and the later pretty much in case they do play at Real Madrid.

Any player worth their salt these days the buy in risk just seems way too high from the go if opening wax or joining breaks. Wait a few months and just buy singles if you like a player.


Do you think with soccer moreso than other sports that a supreme talent 'reveals itself' earlier than other sports? Eg if the kid doesn't look like a supreme talent by 16 and is world class by 19 or so he isn't going to magically 'level up' after that? Whereas other sports a Jordan or a Brady or a Mahomes or a Trout can truly level up into GOAT tier into their early-mid 20's or at least an 'MVP-level' tier?

[wubh]

Do you think with soccer moreso than other sports that a supreme talent 'reveals itself' earlier than other sports? Eg if the kid doesn't look like a supreme talent by 16 and is world class by 19 or so he isn't going to magically 'level up' after that? Whereas other sports a Jordan or a Brady or a Mahomes or a Trout can truly level up into GOAT tier into their early-mid 20's or at least an 'MVP-level' tier?

The initial things I thought about was the level of physicality/physical maturity needed to play at the highest levels in other sports compared to soccer and the amount of technique that needs to develop at the youth levels.

Cooper Flagg might be the best 16 year old basketball player in the world and already stands 6'8 and maybe 200 lbs but would be nowhere ready to excel at the NBA level. And that curve is longer with baseball and football given how much the competition changes as you level up.

But some similar aged teenagers with enough physical development can contribute or even excel as a professional soccer player in the right situation, like Jude. So this developmental track would be most like hockey, where true world class players are often ready to step in and play a starring role almost immediately after being drafted as an 18/19 year old.

A soccer player with a technique deficit or poor IQ but debuts at age 18 has almost certainly missed their chance to become world class even if they have other good attributes and go on to have a long career as a pro. And that developmental cutoff is much earlier when it comes to true world class potential.