2024 NBA Playoffs and Finals thread

[GOATcards]

so we've learned that DEN would need to win all of 53 games to get the home court advantage and any other comforts of #1 seeding, and then simply be healthy and well-repped come postseason, and they roll.

anyway, one of these other threads was talking about Ja Morant in the context of championship contention, and he doesn't strike me as even potentially at that level? Is he more of Dom Wilkins level impact on the game (potentially)? As amazing as Wilkins looked in his own right, he just wasn't in championship contention.

So I'm thinking of the MVP-ballot-discussion players who are in contention for rings right now and it looks like these in order:
Jokic
Giannis
Tatum (do we treat 23ECF game 7 injury as an aberration...)
then:
Booker I guess?
Luka
Joel

here's the betting lines on '24 championship contenders, roughly averaged across books:

MIL +375
BOS +400
DEN +475
PHO +575
LAL +1350
GSW +1375
LAC +2200
CLE +2300

but does anyone realistically see the bottom 2-4 teams actually pulling out another ring this season? i guess these odds must be based on something. when's the last time a team with +2300 odds going into that year's regular season won the chip? or +1350 odds for that matter?

so this gets us to: the select few superstars pulling down ring/chips/what-have-yous high in the running year after year (more or less) in that dept., it seems that nowadays it's going to be the top two guys mentioned with solid supporting casts and health history, with some chance of it being Tatum/Boston but that would mean their having to go through both MIL and DEN with their lineups. damian lillard gets a chip at last? not sure how you overcome the Nugs esp. after their 16-4 record in Playoffs '23. Presuming health, you basically have (the highest chance of either) Giannis or Tatum trying to figure out the Joker and all their supporting casts thrown in but more or less canceling each other out?

my subjective percentage odds for '24 champs:
DEN - 45%
MIL - 25%
BOS - 20%

this leaves PHO at most with 10% which seems about right (DevKev really gonna stay healthy and supported enough through 20+ postseason games to emerge chip-havers? seems more like 5% tops to me). pecking order in each conference goes something like:
DEN-PHO-LAL-SAC-GSW-MIN-LAC-MEM-DAL-NOP-OKC- (POR/HOU/SAS/UTA)
MIL-BOS-MIA-PHI-CLE-NYK-BKN-TOR- (ORL/IND/CHI/WAS/CHH/ATL/DET)

how would any of these teams other than DEN, PHO, MIL, or BOS end up with a chip this season?

[JustinVerlander07]

It's week 1 dude....

[Nomad]

Indiana not on this. That is disrespect for one of three teams in the east that could still go 82-0.

[jcmel323]

Probably luka for mvp. NBA has been trying to push him.

It's going to be difficult to beat Pelicans (with zion) in the regular season but that doesn't translate to playoffs.

Agree on DEN and PHX on the west
Miami is going to be there with BOS and MIL.

[Nomad]

wait so Zion is on or just no one wants to be left holding the mcdonalds bag....

[GOATcards]

Indiana not on this. That is disrespect for one of three teams in the east that could still go 82-0.

it's funny to raise regular season record as evidence of anything

not even being a 70-win team guarantees being a finals champion

[Nomad]

I rest my case.

[rifleman69]

The WCF is going to be so lit next week.

Oh wait, it's not next week?

[ninjacookies]

Fakers in 1.5.


Change my mind.

[GOATcards]

I assume that a realistic finals matchup that we'd also all like to see, is the one where Joker's team goes up against Freak's team. Isn't it about time?

Nugs have to put Air Gordon on Giannis on the defense, and Jokic has a somewhat more challenging time going up against a combo of Giannis and BrooLo when on offense, so they gonna have to exploit that Dame weakness there. Who guards Dame though? KCP gonna be good enough for that task?

assumes good team health lol

[GOATcards]

odds from March 15

Team DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
Celtics +220 +220 +230 🔥 +220 +225
Nuggets +340 +330 +350 +290 ❄️ +350
Clippers +550 +550 +550 +550 +450 ❄️
Bucks +700 +700 +700 +750 🔥 +700
Suns +2000 +2400 +2500 🔥 +1800 +1600 ❄️
Thunder +2200 🔥 +1900 ❄️ +2000 +2000 +2000
76ers +2200 ❄️ +3900 +4000 🔥 +3500 +3000
Mavericks +3000 +3600 🔥 +3500 +3500 +2800 ❄️
Lakers +3500 +3700 🔥 +3500 +2500 ❄️ +2800
Knicks +3500 +3200 +3500 +2800 +2500 ❄️


I don't envision any team besides those top 4 winning the title. It's going to be one of those four. My subjective odds/percentages are something like this:

Celts ~43%
Nuggets ~42%
Clippers ~10%
Bucks ~5%

The Clippers chances depend mainly on health and even then I'm not clear on how they overcome the Nuggets or Celtics. I think of the '20 Playoffs where a less-developed Nuggets beat the Clips in 7. The Clips have since added the Beard and I doubt this would give them enough of an edge.

I don't see how the Bucks pull it off unless the Celts and Nugs have injury issues and being full-strength themselves

[bkcardcollector]

Fakers in 1.5.


Change my mind.

ninja - we doing the avatar wager this year for my Warriors your fakers?

[GOATcards]

Fakers in 1.5.


Change my mind.

ninja - we doing the avatar wager this year for my Warriors your fakers?

fakers nuggs, so it's fakers (gone) in 5, 5.5?

let's none of us be under- or over-thinking this :cool:

added:

'24 championship odds as of today

Boston Celtics
+150

Denver Nuggets
+300

Oklahoma City Thunder
14-1

LA Clippers
14-1

Milwaukee Bucks
15-1

Dallas Mavericks
16-1

Philadelphia 76ers
18-1

Minnesota Timberwolves
18-1

Phoenix Suns
20-1

Los Angeles Lakers
20-1

New York Knicks
40-1

Miami Heat
40-1

Cleveland Cavaliers
50-1

Indiana Pacers
100-1

New Orleans Pelicans
100-1

Sacramento Kings
100-1

Orlando Magic
150-1

Chicago Bulls
1000-1

Atlanta Hawks
1000-1

I guess this means that unless voters do a Jerry West '69 FMVP for Jokic in the event of a DEN loss (heaven forbid), the front-runner for FMVP would be Jayson Tatum?

Seriously, MIL was the front-runner in Oct.?:

[OP]
here's the betting lines on '24 championship contenders, roughly averaged across books:

MIL +375
BOS +400
DEN +475
PHO +575
LAL +1350
GSW +1375
LAC +2200
CLE +2300

[daeve]

I think Clips/Mavs is going to be the best 1st round series. I have the Mavs winning because they're clicking at the right time while LAC is sputtering, but I think Clips have enough firepower to make it a great series.

[daeve]

I think Klay knows that was it

Klay Thompson stopped right before leaving in the floor in perhaps his last time in a Warriors uniform and did a slow 360 spin while appearing to take in the entire crowd that still had a few Golden State fans left.

https://twitter.com/MarcJSpears/status/1780456312653910277

[GOATcards]

I think Clips/Mavs is going to be the best 1st round series. I have the Mavs winning because they're clicking at the right time while LAC is sputtering, but I think Clips have enough firepower to make it a great series.

we got 2 50-win teams going at it in the 1st round, by contrast the 4-5 1st round series in the EC is between 47-48 win teams

[blackbears86]

Philly looking pathetic and Miami doing Miami playoffs things so far.

[The Accountant]

Might be the worst execution by the sixers all year. Wtf.

I thought nurse would figure out the zone

[blackbears86]

Might be the worst execution by the sixers all year. Wtf.

I thought nurse would figure out the zone



They look lifeless.

Missing layups, leaving Heat players wide open, just terrible basketball.

[The Accountant]

They look lifeless.

Missing layups, leaving Heat players wide open, just terrible basketball.


It’s so frustrating. They played 8 games consecutive of good hard fought basketball, including a heat win. They are lost


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Accountant]

Embiid more hurt than I expected


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcardstore]

Yea I don’t think Embiid was ready to come back

[blackbears86]

Yea I don’t think Embiid was ready to come back



But hasn't he been back and playing pretty well in this eight game win streak?


Not sure why Philly is playing him on the perimeter so much, but I don't watch this team.

[The Accountant]

But hasn't he been back and playing pretty well in this eight game win streak?


Not sure why Philly is playing him on the perimeter so much, but I don't watch this team.


He re-aggravated it on the second to last game and sat the finale. Really needed that 6 seed more than we realized.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcardstore]

But hasn't he been back and playing pretty well in this eight game win streak?


Not sure why Philly is playing him on the perimeter so much, but I don't watch this team.

He’s gassed. Playoff intensity is a different animal.

He played 5 low intensity end of season games.

[The Accountant]

Chick-fil-A coming in clutch lmao


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[blackbears86]

He re-aggravated it on the second to last game and sat the finale. Really needed that 6 seed more than we realized.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk




Aaaaaaah, I see.


Does he always bring the ball up the court so much? You would think they would want to help him out with the bum knee.


For a big man he is actually a pretty good ball handler.

[SandStoneSports]

Lakers/Pelicans and Philly/Heat have both been really great games so far. Playoff basketball is only rivaled by playoff football. No better sports in the world.

[rifleman69]

Bulls trying to run away from the Hawks. Caruso looks to be a little injured though.

[escapegoat]

im enjoying this game so far

[escapegoat]

i read the sad thread about the white sox and am happy seeing bulls fans having something to rally behind

[Siberian13]

Whichever team decides to play defense wins?

[daeve]

[Charania] Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler is feared to have an MCL injury in his knee, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. The injury could sideline Butler for an indefinite period. MRI to come.

Bulls may just squeak in as the 8th

[drobfan8]

Miami weren't beating Boston this season anyway.

Cannon fodder.

I would have loved to have seen Philly have to face Boston though. Oh man.

Instead Philly should squeak by NY. I think NY might be the worst 2nd seed we've seen since the really bad East teams from the early 00s.

[rifleman69]

Luka vs Paul George...

[rifleman69]

Let's see if the Bucks can maintain this scoring vs Haliburton and the annointed one Neismith.

[Nomad]

As I feared. Tyrese being exposed for defensive deficiencies and missing a beat. Say what you want, he is not the same as before the injury.

No offense to Nembhard, but Nesmith should have been on Dame from the start. Start McConnell and we might have a chance.

[rifleman69]

Great game last night between Peli's and Thunder. Want more of that.

[mfw13]

When was the last time the home team won all eight Game 1's ???

[The Accountant]

When was the last time the home team won all eight Game 1's ???

I believe they said 2013

[rifleman69]

Who's the first "home" team to lose? Place your bets!

[The Accountant]

Who's the first "home" team to lose? Place your bets!


Knicks!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ksemmel]

Embiid with yet another flop gift of a call. This dude is worse than a fish out of water

[Nomad]

Maxey legit.

[The Accountant]

Embiid with yet another flop gift of a call. This dude is worse than a fish out of water

Have you seen Brunson? Twice as bad

[The Accountant]

Maxey legit.

Breakout playoffs for him. We def missing harden in a lot of ways so we’ll take it. Embiid is hobbled so he’s going to have to carry us this year

[The Accountant]

Nurse is the ultimate “eliminate #1” cheat code

[Nomad]

And legit hacked. Whole Kicks team slicing and dicing Maxey there.

[Scottish Punk]

Knicks stole one. Maxey and Embiid both have 30 point games and Brunson laying enough bricks for an entire apartment complex. Give up two three when you could have closed the game out.

[Onepocketj]

Refs definitely letting them play in the last minute. Wow

[daeve]

that was a great game - several insane sequences

[NYBBFAN]

LeBlock!

[hxcmilkshake]

Pure theft.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[pete2345]

Looking forward to watching that coward Lecry get swept.

[Giroux]

When the 3rd option on your team is Nic Batum, you're gonna have a bad time. Harris is pathetic. Hield too.

[kobebeast2020]

Finally felt good to be on the other side after the Reggie Miller experience.

[rifleman69]

How not to close a game on the road out, by the Philadelphia 76ers.

[pete2345]

Phantom calls for Lecry what a scrub

[hxcmilkshake]

Wait guys, Phillys got a grievance....lol

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[rifleman69]

Oh Lebron, you just couldn't close out the game!

[packman80]

Oh Lebron, you just couldn't close out the game!

He can whine after the game how the refs screwed him and the Lakers.

[GOATcards]

He can whine after the game how the refs screwed him and the Lakers.

what, was the free-throw differential between the teams about even this time?

[TheFrenzy]

I love Luka.

[rifleman69]

Big win by the Heat, dominated the Celts minus the second quarter.

[bmf]

Can LeBron and the Lakers become the first team ever to come back from 0-3 deficit? Asking for a friend.

[Nomad]

Andre Jackson has kind of a Lonzo Ball vibe. Wonder if he gets significant play for Bucks in G4.

[GOATcards]

these expected WCSF are gonna be �� (fire emoji?) with healthy squads

1-4 matchup is OKC vs. DAL/LAC
2-3 matchup is DEN vs. MIN

ECSF . . .
BOS vs CLE/ORL yawn
NYK vs IND yawn?

doesn't seem like BOS is going to get much of a workout before the Finals, meanwhile in the West I get the vibes of how the WC was during the Duncan-Kobe-KG-Dirk-Gnash period

[Nomad]

NYK without Randle. I would not bet on them, as Siakam represents.

[rms13]

Sounds like Porzingis is going to be done for the year with an Achilles. MRI tomorrow. That was my initial feeling seeing the way he was moving. I definitely wasn't expecting him to make it through the entire post season healthy but this sucks. He was a huge part of the team this year. And now we'll see if Horford can still play 35 minutes per game.

[Chris P]

Sounds like Porzingis is going to be done for the year with an Achilles. MRI tomorrow. That was my initial feeling seeing the way he was moving. I definitely wasn't expecting him to make it through the entire post season healthy but this sucks. He was a huge part of the team this year. And now we'll see if Horford can still play 35 minutes per game.

Woj says doesnt look like an achilles

[rms13]

Woj says doesnt look like an achilles

Weird because this what NBC sports has:

"Kristaps Porzingis will undergo imaging on Tuesday, though early indications are that he has sustained a right Achilles injury, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski
They initially listed his injury as a calf strain, but it appears that it may be far more severe than that."


I hope it's not the Achilles and he can cole back at some point but it didn't look good on the court. Non contact injury and he could barely walk and looked like he couldn't put weight on it.

This is exactly what happened to Durant. He tried to play through a calf strain and then blew out his Achilles