What goes up, must come down..

[Rooftop]

Can you feel it?

[rms13]

Definitely feeling it in my stock holdings.

[PumpnDumpling]

Might as well Jump

Go ahead and Jump

[Big35Hurt]

Sell everything!!!!

[ThoseBackPages]

stuff i want is not even available to buy, nevermind dropping

[towerymt]

I only buy gravity packs.

[boxbuster7]

thank god my life savings is in trading cards and not stocks

#blezzed

[KhalDrogo]

Like I said yesterday, cards will only really feel it if unemployment rises significantly.

[Rage]

Is this about pokemon?

[kingofsnake]

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMGNvMmlnZzNjOTAwZWszbmltMTZvYWkzemU2MXRhbXk1OXYwcXJ2YSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/sNq15dkfMa903fzSTW/giphy.gif

[hermanotarjeta]

Like I said yesterday, cards will only really feel it if unemployment rises significantly.

Yes, flipper boi self-employment will increase, so cards are safe.

[boxbuster7]

if people have to choose between eggs or cards they'll probably chose cards

wagmi

[Poorboy]

if people have to choose between eggs or cards they'll probably chose cards

wagmi

Eggciting !!!!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

According to these boards, the end has been nigh since late 2021.

Please let me know when it’s actually here.

[Cracktoast]

The smart people are buying buying buying right now and I don't mean cardboard with peoples faces on them. There may never be another opportunity like this ever.

[Big35Hurt]

The smart people are buying buying buying right now and I don't mean cardboard with peoples faces on them. There may never be another opportunity like this ever.

What are the poors doing? Can't leave them out of any conversation like this.

[Poorboy]

What are the poors doing? Can't leave them out of any conversation like this.

We buying pro debut autos…

[tjforce]

How many "The Sky is Falling" threads have we had over the past 6 years?


If you've held onto the right stuff you're doing great.

[boxbuster7]

The smart people are buying buying buying right now and I don't mean cardboard with peoples faces on them. There may never be another opportunity like this ever.

do you realize the stock markets only 5% off from it's all time high?

Theres way more room to fall

[acunamatata1]

The smart people are buying buying buying right now and I don't mean cardboard with peoples faces on them. There may never be another opportunity like this ever.

Bruh, the S&P is just 7% off its peak. That ain't why Buffett was selling.

[esoxwaters]

do you realize the stock markets only 5% off from it's all time high?

Theres way more room to fall

Bruh, the S&P is just 7% off its peak. That ain't why Buffett was selling.

This is why I'm hedging investments with Action Packed 24K.

[rms13]

For the last couple of weeks I've been able to regularly find cards at Target and Walmart for the first time in 5 years. Either everything is being printed to the moon or the market is really cooling down. Probably a combination of both.

[boxbuster7]

ya I mean 99.5% of cards are worthless long term

especially with current print runs. The only way to make money is to have the bankroll to buy that .05% or to just keep flipping the hot product over and over again

#thehobby

[NYBBFAN]

ohhhh my god some equities are at levels not seen in 5 months whatever will we do

I just emptied my baseball card account for a Pujols RC. I think we're gonna be fine.

[eastbayak]

Like I said yesterday, cards will only really feel it if unemployment rises significantly.

Unemployment will rise significantly (statistically). How long it takes to get there? Unsure but it'll indubitably happen.

[f2tornado]

I wouldn't mind card show crowds getting back down to 2022 or earlier levels. No sign of that happening yet.

[mfw13]

do you realize the stock markets only 5% off from it's all time high?

Theres way more room to fall

This....

But as I mentioned yesterday, you have a huge number of people out there who have never experienced a real stock market crash.

Let's not forget that in 2000-02 and 2007-09, the S&P dropped by over 50% before it hit bottom.

The smart people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to bottom....not trying to catch a falling knife....

[KhalDrogo]

The smart people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to bottom....not trying to catch a falling knife....
No. The smart people continue to buy at regular intervals and don’t time the market. It’s not catching a falling knife. It’s dollar cost averaging.

[DioBrando]

Mods delete.

[Tonic3]

For the last couple of weeks I've been able to regularly find cards at Target and Walmart for the first time in 5 years. Either everything is being printed to the moon or the market is really cooling down. Probably a combination of both.

It's a little bit of both but the biggest difference is all the people at shows with a table full of blaster/mega boxes priced well above retail aren't able to flip them anymore.....which makes me oh so happy.
The easy flip of over produced retail is done. I can find retail at almost every Target, Walmart, Meijer (midwest store), etc....

People buying retail now are opening it but with diluted content a lot of the releases just sit. The good old days of discounted blasters will show itself again more and more as we go forward :)!

[ThoseBackPages]

Retail on the shelves also depends on where you live

[Triple B]

If you rode that painted pony and let the spinning wheel turn, you'd be just fine.

[f2tornado]

Retail on the shelves also depends on where you live

This, plus there's a difference between retail on the shelf and stuff that's actually half decent on the shelf.

[boxbuster7]

theres retail on the shelf that is decent?

[wilsonsingles]

theres retail on the shelf that is decent?

my target had 15 blasters of 2024 prizm football. I passed even though i could buy and resell for a profit of $45 without any problem

[Big35Hurt]

I wouldn't mind card show crowds getting back down to 2022 or earlier levels. No sign of that happening yet.

I wouldn't either. Shows are insanely packed to the point where one can barely move from table to table. Not looking forward to the body odor issues once summer arrives if shows continue to be packed like they are now.

[boxbuster7]

my target had 15 blasters of 2024 prizm football. I passed even though i could buy and resell for a profit of $45 without any problem

seems like a waste of time after shipping, fees, dealing with buyers, etc.

[mfw13]

It's a little bit of both but the biggest difference is all the people at shows with a table full of blaster/mega boxes priced well above retail aren't able to flip them anymore.....which makes me oh so happy.
The easy flip of over produced retail is done. I can find retail at almost every Target, Walmart, Meijer (midwest store), etc....

People buying retail now are opening it but with diluted content a lot of the releases just sit. The good old days of discounted blasters will show itself again more and more as we go forward :)!

And now you're seeing card vending machines pop up all over the place....there's one outside our local Asian supermarket....about half Pokemon packs and half sports.....

[rms13]

Retail on the shelves also depends on where you live

Yes. I'm in the LA area and shelves have been bare pretty much since covid. Now all of the sudden I am finding stuff every time I go to the store. Went to Walmart over the weekend and there were probably 50 blasters of Series 1 on the shelf along with a Prizm Football and Basketball and other stuff like GPK, Marvel, UFC, F1, Soccer etc.

[ThoseBackPages]

Yes. I'm in the LA area and shelves have been bare pretty much since covid. Now all of the sudden I am finding stuff every time I go to the store. Went to Walmart over the weekend and there were probably 50 blasters of Series 1 on the shelf along with a Prizm Football and Basketball and other stuff like GPK, Marvel, UFC, F1, Soccer etc.

Thats awesome!

the local Target here will get a restocking every week or so. The MLB and Pokemon wax does not last until the next day.

[hermanotarjeta]

Still waiting for hobby wax to come down……

[theshowandme]

Someone call me when Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Mantle, and Jackie cards start crashing.

[coltsnsox07]

'What is- something Issac Newton once said, Alex.'

[rms13]

Thats awesome!

the local Target here will get a restocking every week or so. The MLB and Pokemon wax does not last until the next day.

The Pokemon stuff doesn't last here. That's the only thing that's always empty in the card section and there are always people walking up looking for Pokemon when I'm there. I don't know anything about Pokemon or that side of the hobby but I hear it's hot right now.

[boxbuster7]

everybody moved out of sports cards and into pokemon

[Big35Hurt]

everybody moved out of sports cards and into pokemon

Definitely seems to be a lot of that going on. I just can't get into it. There are what, 151 sets since the late 1990s? Even with glasses, it's hard for me to see the year printed on the card and the symbol that identifies the set. There are a few I can recognize easily like Rocket or Jungle and a couple of others, but the rest not so much.

[hermanotarjeta]

Definitely seems to be a lot of that going on. I just can't get into it. There are what, 151 sets since the late 1990s? Even with glasses, it's hard for me to see the year printed on the card and the symbol that identifies the set. There are a few I can recognize easily like Rocket or Jungle and a couple of others, but the rest not so much.

Not only that, how do folks participate in Pokémon breaks?

[DynaEtch]

On the pokemon note…it’a a genre I pretty much totally stay away from, but no numbered cards…..really? That’s a big hit to the collectibility aspect. Unless that’s changed, but pretty sure at least as of a couple years ago, you couldn’t find numbered cards in pokemon.

[hermanotarjeta]

On the pokemon note…it’a a genre I pretty much totally stay away from, but no numbered cards…..really? That’s a big hit to the collectibility aspect. Unless that’s changed, but pretty sure at least as of a couple years ago, you couldn’t find numbered cards in pokemon.

Graded pop report numbers?

[MoreToppsPlease]

So Panini beat Fanatics?

[boxbuster7]

I totally ignore pokemon

I don't understand it. respect it's cultural relevance but not for me.

[Big35Hurt]

Not only that, how do folks participate in Pokémon breaks?

Is that even a thing? If it is, I have no idea unless they go by the characters or go by characters that start A-D, E-H, etc.

[bub838]

Not only that, how do folks participate in Pokémon breaks?

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1601082

[DynaEtch]

Graded pop report numbers?

Something that goes up over time. Basically the opposite of the limited aspect of a numbered card.

[rwperu34]

This is hilarious. The baseball market is the hottest it has been since I started selling full time in Q4:2021.

[boxbuster7]

This is hilarious. The baseball market is the hottest it has been since I started selling full time in Q4:2021.

is that actually true?

Your index post from last year kinda says otherwise

[rms13]

is that actually true?

Your index post from last year kinda says otherwise

Maybe on the high end. My experience trying to sell lower end numbered cards of stars, HOF, future HOF guys is quite the opposite. Stuff still sells but I'm getting a lot less then I was over the past few years for comparable cards.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Maybe on the high end. My experience trying to sell lower end numbered cards of stars, HOF, future HOF guys is quite the opposite. Stuff still sells but I'm getting a lot less then I was over the past few years for comparable cards.

If you are trying to make money, I have a feeling lower end numbered veteran cards is not the stuff to sell in this junk parallel era. It's certainly not a good way to guage the market.

[mfw13]

I always find it interesting when people talk about the "market" as if it was a monolithic whole, when in fact it is actually composed of many different smaller markets, which sometimes act in concert and sometimes don't.

It's pretty common and normal for some segments of the hobby/market to be doing well while others struggle.

[rms13]

If you are trying to make money, I have a feeling lower end numbered veteran cards is not the stuff to sell in this junk parallel era. It's certainly not a good way to guage the market.

I'm not trying to make money. I'm just trying to sell PC stuff to make room for better PC stuff and selling stuff from packs I occasionally open. But what you are saying is the "market" is only for high end stuff which is also what I'm saying. Not everyone is selling high end stuff. People used to be able to open packs/boxes and sell stuff to make a profit or at least offset the cost of purchases but I think those days are over.

[ThoseBackPages]

i think the lower end stuff you mention would probably do well at shows (not on the internet where fees and shipping are deterrents)

[rms13]

i think the lower end stuff you mention would probably do well at shows (not on the internet where fees and shipping are deterrents)

It would definitely do better at shows for me because I have been netting about .30 per card after ebay fees. I sell everything with $1.25 shipping. Selling at a show wouldn't work for me either because I probably have about 100 cards that I would like to move and the money I'd make selling them for $1-5 wouldn't cover the fees to set up at a show and that's assuming I could sell everything in one day. But that's all right, I'll just stick things in a box for now. Slowing making $100 over a few months on ebay isn't worth my time. I mostly sell because I think there are people that would want these cards but if I'm getting .30 per card at the end of the day it's not worth it. I'll probably put everything together in a lot eventually and hopefully get $20

[eastbayak]

Ever since I started listing sub-$20 cards on eBay (around 1-2 years ago), my sales have exploded.

I'm constantly selling (including now) such cards daily and I love it because most of it would've sat in random boxes or been given away otherwise otherwise.

[acunamatata1]

Ever since I started listing sub-$20 cards on eBay (around 1-2 years ago), my sales have exploded.

I'm constantly selling (including now) such cards daily and I love it because most of it would've sat in random boxes or been given away otherwise otherwise.

BIN? What do you do for shipping?

[eastbayak]

BIN? What do you do for shipping?

BINs +/- OBO. Free shipping.

For standard card sizes, I usually do something like this:
- $6.99 and under => 1 oz ($0.69).
- $7-$12.99 => 2 oz ($0.97)
- $13-$20 => 3 oz ($1.25)

Card sold is typically shipped out via PWE with a toploader (penny sleeved).
- 1 oz => tape 1 card to 1 side of the toploader
- 2 oz => tape 2 cards to each side
- 3 oz => tape 3 cards to each side

For thicker cards, I modify as-needed (less cards used for padding and occasionally ship out via card savers if I don't have a large enough toploader).

[f2tornado]

Maybe on the high end. My experience trying to sell lower end numbered cards of stars, HOF, future HOF guys is quite the opposite. Stuff still sells but I'm getting a lot less then I was over the past few years for comparable cards.

Volume is high, perhaps record high, for me on lower priced stuff while slab prices are coming in lower, at least for the non-Judge, Ohtani, Betts, Harper type stuff.

Heck, someone got my PSA 10 Lindor 2021 Chrome Update Refractor /250 for $14 the other day. Auction fail. Figured a lower numbered first Mets card would fetch above grading cost. Not exactly a flaming slab market.

[mfw13]

Not exactly a flaming slab market.

We're in a junk slab era....way too many cards being slabbed where the slab either does not add value, or actually decreases the cards value.

[rms13]

Ever since I started listing sub-$20 cards on eBay (around 1-2 years ago), my sales have exploded.

I'm constantly selling (including now) such cards daily and I love it because most of it would've sat in random boxes or been given away otherwise otherwise.

Everything I list sells. But I list most things at 0.99 auction and most sell with one bid. Then I see the same cards I sold selling for $5 with $5 shipping from bigger sellers. I don't pay for promotion and I know ebay buries my listings because of it so that's part of the problem. But I don't think paying for promotion is worth it for me

[boxbuster7]

I've always found low end to be way more liquid than high end

[MoreToppsPlease]

I always find it interesting when people talk about the "market" as if it was a monolithic whole, when in fact it is actually composed of many different smaller markets, which sometimes act in concert and sometimes don't.

It's pretty common and normal for some segments of the hobby/market to be doing well while others struggle.

Absolutely. The same people purposefully call everybody who sells cards for monetary gain as being part of “the hobby” even when it’s perfectly obvious that hobbies are literally defined as not trying to financially gain.

This type of corruption is not a good look and just leads to bigger corruption.

[Gidtheson]

Ever since I started listing sub-$20 cards on eBay (around 1-2 years ago), my sales have exploded.

I'm constantly selling (including now) such cards daily and I love it because most of it would've sat in random boxes or been given away otherwise otherwise.

This is my experience as well

[OhioLawyerF5]

Absolutely. The same people purposefully call everybody who sells cards for monetary gain as being part of “the hobby” even when it’s perfectly obvious that hobbies are literally defined as not trying to financially gain.

This type of corruption is not a good look and just leads to bigger corruption.Sort of like someone who would be ignorant enough to call everybody who sells cards a non-collector. :coffee:

[bub838]

Absolutely. The same people purposefully call everybody who sells cards for monetary gain as being part of “the hobby” even when it’s perfectly obvious that hobbies are literally defined as not trying to financially gain.

This type of corruption is not a good look and just leads to bigger corruption.

Where have you been? I keep expecting to see your canned replies in response to people but they aren't there. Were you on vacation?

[f2tornado]

This is my experience as well

Likewise. Once I started using ESE... Boom. I also tend to price on the lower end of comps. Move it quick so I have the money for better things.

[imbluestreak23]

Did the crybabies buy the dip?

Or are we still mad at orange man

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Vintage is doing fine!

[JoshMN]

I gotta keep checking the dates on this thread. It's like deja vu all over again. I almost forgot about the "vintage is fine" stage of the thread, but there it is.

Next will come the people who want to argue that 1) vintage is not fine or 2) even if vintage is fine, it doesn't matter because nobody collects vintage anymore because it is too expensive and the players are no longer playing.

Then the arguments go back to modern and we all learn that the people having a tough time are probably just making really crappy decisions.

The other line of argument is that the only thing preventing prices from actually dropping is "can't take a loss bro" and/or shill bidding.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I gotta keep checking the dates on this thread. It's like deja vu all over again. I almost forgot about the "vintage is fine" stage of the thread, but there it is.

Next will come the people who want to argue that 1) vintage is not fine or 2) even if vintage is fine, it doesn't matter because nobody collects vintage anymore because it is too expensive and the players are no longer playing.

Then the arguments go back to modern and we all learn that the people having a tough time are probably just making really crappy decisions.

The other line of argument is that the only thing preventing prices from actually dropping is "can't take a loss bro" and/or shill bidding.

We haven’t even had the full “breakers are ruining everything” ten page discussion yet!

[Poorboy]

breakers ruining everything lol

[Twalk1975]

We haven’t even had the full “breakers are ruining everything” ten page discussion yet!

This one just bypassed that stage and went straight into financial advice.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Sort of like someone who would be ignorant enough to call everybody who sells cards a non-collector. :coffee:

“Collectors” are simply people that amass something; “hobbyists” can also amass something, but the difference by definition is that they don’t try to profit from it if they do.

Can you elaborate upon your statement with this definition in mind?

[rwperu34]

is that actually true?

Your index post from last year kinda says otherwise

It depends on time frame. The bulk of the drop started in April 2021 and lasted until about May of 2024. Comparing now to say Novemeber it is much higher (probably on the order of 30%). Comparing year over year I'm sure it is up. Updating the Index is on my to do list for this little break so I'll know for sure and the magnitude in a few days.

I can say with absolute certainty that my sales are much stronger than a year ago. Even controlling for the time of year (this should be right about peak) my sales are stronger than 2024 (by double!), 2023, and 2022. Stuff is flying off the shelves like crazy.

It was to the point that I was having a hard time keeping my inventory up even before Spring Training started. At that time the big reason was because I selling more big cards than I was winning. Since ST started the business has been somewhat neglected (as usual)....yet my sales are even stronger than a month ago!

I'm seeing it on both sides. My win% on snipes is way down, my scroll right over % is way up (not something I actually track, just feel), and the cards I do win are much closer to my max bid (again, just feel here).


Maybe on the high end. My experience trying to sell lower end numbered cards of stars, HOF, future HOF guys is quite the opposite. Stuff still sells but I'm getting a lot less then I was over the past few years for comparable cards.

I don't have any problem selling lower end #'d cards of stars and HOF. If it gets too low (say $2 + shipping) the problem is the expenses, but those $5-$20 cards are moving quickly for me, and very profitable.

I've always found low end to be way more liquid than high end

Absolutely^^^ That said, I am still selling the lower $ stuff much faster this year than I did last year.

[OhioLawyerF5]

“Collectors” are simply people that amass something; “hobbyists” can also amass something, but the difference by definition is that they don’t try to profit from it if they do.



Can you elaborate upon your statement with this definition in mind?I don't elaborate on made-up definitions by someone with an agenda. Just replace "non-collectors" with "non-hobbyists" in my original statement. They are the same, whether the MTP homemade dictionary agrees or not.

If anything, a collector is less likely to sell something than a hobbyist, because one can participate in a hobby by buying and selling, but collecting, by definition, is acquiring. Like I said, ignorance.

[Rooftop]

Would not want to be in the breaking business in the near future

[ThoseBackPages]

Would not want to be in the breaking business in the near future

depends if youve already bent the knee or not

[SaveMeTheGum]

Keep dropping!!! My PC needs are getting filled!

[queonda]

Box prices are higher now than a couple months ago. For example, $500 for 2024 finest!!

[hermanotarjeta]

Box prices are higher now than a couple months ago. For example, $500 for 2024 finest!!

That’s insane.

It’s the start of the baseball season and Johns are getting hot flashes.

[solt0131]

Anyone interested in selling out, please send me a message. I'm buying.

[tjforce]

Some sky high prices in last night's Fanatics Premier.

Skenes for $1.1MM
Jeter SP for $320k

Basketball and Football did well also.

For this thread, I hand out the Chicken Little Award:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/media/the-sky-is-falling-chicken-little-gif.154471/full

[Triple B]

I don't elaborate on made-up definitions by someone with an agenda. Just replace "non-collectors" with "non-hobbyists" in my original statement. They are the same, whether the MTP homemade dictionary agrees or not.

If anything, a collector is less likely to sell something than a hobbyist, because one can participate in a hobby by buying and selling, but collecting, by definition, is acquiring. Like I said, ignorance.

Why do you even bother? Dude's in an echo chamber.

[PuddleMonkey]

Anyone interested in selling out, please send me a message. I'm buying.

I've made multiple trips to my local consignor recently. Even broke a set up to sell an Ohtani rookie auto.

[PapaStu]

I've made multiple trips to my local consignor recently. Even broke a set up to sell an Ohtani rookie auto.

PuddleMonkey sells harder that we do now too? Sonofa

[solt0131]

PuddleMonkey sells harder that we do now too? Sonofa

Because according to him, his cards are going to be worthless here soon.

[PuddleMonkey]

PuddleMonkey sells harder that we do now too? Sonofa

I'm better at everything, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone anymore.

[PuddleMonkey]

Because according to him, his cards are going to be worthless here soon.

You're twisting the plot again.

[ScooterD]

Genuine questions for PuddleMonkey:

What’s your goal with these ongoing posts to spread your opinion that the hobby/business is dying?

Are you trying to warn people about the crashing market? Do you want to just be known as the person who called it early and is smart? Both?

[PuddleMonkey]

Genuine questions for PuddleMonkey:

Everyone should know by now I don't do genuine questions. With that being said I'm feeling generous today.



What’s your goal with these ongoing posts to spread your opinion that the hobby/business is dying?

The hobby isn't going to die, there's going to be people in the hobby no matter what happens just like there has been the last 100 plus years. It is going to take an considerable hit though. Prices, actual prices not shilled or imaginary, on key cards will be scaled back. Flagship wax will look to be holding its value from the outside but you'll start to see much more of it left on shelves and bigger sales during holidays like Black Friday. The print runs will decrease.



Are you trying to warn people about the crashing market? Do you want to just be known as the person who called it early and is smart? Both?

I don't really care what people do with their time or money. We have a lot of collectors that feel like they've been priced out of the market and some have been vocal about it. If they just bide their time they'll be able to re-enter if they choose to. If they're degens they may have to wait for a little regulation on breaking or repacks to happen. Either way, there are no rocket emojis attached to the card market right now, more like parachutes.




Prediction Time - I've got this card shop on my side of town that's been there to my knowledge at least 3 years. It might be much longer but I don't travel that road much. Anyway, I predict he's no longer there in 2-3 years from now. I've never been in the shop, too many Pokemon decals on the window for me. I've only played this game once before with a local shop, about 10-15 years ago, I'm one for one. It was a firearms shop that had been in business 20+ years. I knew much more about his business than I do any card shop around here so it was an easy call for me. Business owner was on the forum and basically chimed in to call me an idiot. I won't go into more detail unless you guys want me to.


https://i.imgur.com/dccpcgg.jpg

[fabiani12333]

https://i.imgur.com/dccpcgg.jpg

I see Panini, Upper Deck, Magic, and Pokemon logos, but no Topps.

[PuddleMonkey]

Google photo of the inside:

https://i.imgur.com/QzdbvFY.jpg

[solt0131]

I think puddle Monkey is really Bernie Sanders.

[Triple B]

Everyone should know by now I don't do genuine questions. With that being said I'm feeling generous today.





The hobby isn't going to die, there's going to be people in the hobby no matter what happens just like there has been the last 100 plus years. It is going to take an considerable hit though. Prices, actual prices not shilled or imaginary, on key cards will be scaled back. Flagship wax will look to be holding its value from the outside but you'll start to see much more of it left on shelves and bigger sales during holidays like Black Friday. The print runs will decrease.





I don't really care what people do with their time or money. We have a lot of collectors that feel like they've been priced out of the market and some have been vocal about it. If they just bide their time they'll be able to re-enter if they choose to. If they're degens they may have to wait for a little regulation on breaking or repacks to happen. Either way, there are no rocket emojis attached to the card market right now, more like parachutes.




Prediction Time - I've got this card shop on my side of town that's been there to my knowledge at least 3 years. It might be much longer but I don't travel that road much. Anyway, I predict he's no longer there in 2-3 years from now. I've never been in the shop, too many Pokemon decals on the window for me. I've only played this game once before with a local shop, about 10-15 years ago, I'm one for one. It was a firearms shop that had been in business 20+ years. I knew much more about his business than I do any card shop around here so it was an easy call for me. Business owner was on the forum and basically chimed in to call me an idiot. I won't go into more detail unless you guys want me to.


Last year I said that the hobby AS IT STANDS has a 5 year window before it starts its skid. By 2030, enough losses will have piled up to drive away a good chunk of participants. I do think that the next 2-3 will be very good which falls into your window for the life span of this shop and like you, I am getting prepped for an exit and I don't think we're alone.

I'd like to hear the rest of this story...

[PuddleMonkey]

I'd like to hear the rest of this story...

Sure, back in the 90's when I moved here we had a few firearms shops in town (not chain stores). One of the guys, Mike, owned one called Brightwater. Anyone who was into firearms knew where the few shops around were located. I got to know Mike pretty well, even to the point he's shown me his costs on purchases. For those that don't know the markup on firearms is pretty abysmal, for example, if Mike sold a new Glock (eww gross) for $500 he'd make about $50 in profit. That's on the high side (10%) when business is good.

Mike, who passed away in 2022, was getting up there in age and wanted to retire and tinker on cars which was his hobby. He only had a couple employees as it wasn't a very large shop. One of his employees named Nick who had worked for him for a few years wanted to purchase the business. A deal was made and Mike entered retirement.

Nick, who was fairly young, had big plans for his newly acquired business. His first order of business was to grow. To do this he decided to move two blocks away so he would be on the main road. Second order of business was to hire all his friends to work at the shop. Where Mike got by with two employees Nick decided he needed 2x-3x that amount. Hard to remember but all of this was taking place around late 2012.

I happen to know who owned the complex he moved into, as well as some of the terms in the contract tenants sign. One of the terms of the contract is tenants must put up backlit signs above their suite. Apparently Nick signed this contract without reading it over and it took him by surprise, I was in the shop when he was ranting about it one day. I'll let you do the math on how many Glocks he needed to sell just to pay for his new $5,000+/- sign. Don't forget to factor in paying all those employees to sell those Glocks. Brightwater was never known as a place for accessories, which have better margins than guns, they were only stocking the basics. Ammunition as well, carried little as big box stores had better pricing.

Brightwater started taking consignment pieces as they could make more per gun this way. Nick, who had only been at this for a short time, had never seen what happens when the political climate changes. Gun sales are really good when there's fear, not so much when there isn't. By 2014 word was spreading that people who had consignments with him were struggling to get paid. Nick was robbing Peter to pay Paul.

To shorten this up a bit here's the obvious mistakes he made:

- Moving the business to a new location where operating costs were much higher.
- Not understanding that those who were into firearms already knew about Brightwater and their old location as they've been around for years.
- Wanted all of his buddies working with him and had way too many employees.
- When the narrative is no longer, "they're coming for our guns!" this industry gets real tough to make it in.



To someone who runs a business it wasn't hard to see how this didn't pencil out. Nick had only seen the good times in the industry, he'd never seen a downturn. Increasing your operating costs to that extent had disaster written all over it. The reason Mike stayed in business for so long is he understood all these things.



https://i.imgur.com/3AVBR3V.jpg



Moved from the blue circle to the red circle
https://i.imgur.com/CyAICh7.jpg

[OhioLawyerF5]

So someone who is bad at business in one industry is evidence of the downfall of an entire other industry?

That said, I'm not sure whether to like you, or hate you. On one hand, I feel like our interests are very closely aligned. But as a collector of antique Colt revolvers, I live by the mantra, "Show your friends your Colt, and show your enemies your Glock." So I'm conflicted. :)!

[dunquixote1]

Ironically, many of my friends are arming up right now…and let’s just say that they aren’t your stereotypical demographic that packs heat. Two of my buddies who were very anti-gun a couple years ago now have guns. Including one that told me ‘he’s bought more guns than cards recently’ just a couple days ago when we were joking around about having barely bought any cards recently. �� At any rate, if the economy tanks - cards are going to get crushed across the board. Anyone who thinks they’re not tied into the larger consumer good economy needs to get their heads checked. There’s always anecdotes and exceptions…but those are just that; anecdotes and exceptions.

[PuddleMonkey]

So someone who is bad at business in one industry is evidence of the downfall of an entire other industry?

Said nobody. Like nobody.


That said, I'm not sure whether to like you, or hate you. On one hand, I feel like our interests are very closely aligned. But as a collector of antique Colt revolvers, I live by the mantra, "Show your friends your Colt, and show your enemies your Glock." So I'm conflicted. :)!

I've owned over a dozen Glocks. When I carry it's a Glock. I hate Glocks. Revolvers and 1911's are what I enjoy, I don't carry them for the obvious reasons.

[PuddleMonkey]

Ironically, many of my friends are arming up right now…and let’s just say that they aren’t your stereotypical demographic that packs heat. Two of my buddies who were very anti-gun a couple years ago now have guns. Including one that told me ‘he’s bought more guns than cards recently’ just a couple days ago when we were joking around about having barely bought any cards recently. �� At any rate, if the economy tanks - cards are going to get crushed across the board. Anyone who thinks they’re not tied into the larger consumer good economy needs to get their heads checked. There’s always anecdotes and exceptions…but those are just that; anecdotes and exceptions.

The further one goes on the leftist side the more pro-gun they get.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Said nobody. Like nobody.









I've owned over a dozen Glocks. When I carry it's a Glock. I hate Glocks. Revolvers and 1911's are what I enjoy, I don't carry them for the obvious reasons.Ok, we are certainly kindred spirits. That sounds almost identical to my situation. Although I don't "hate Glocks." I trust my life with them. And I wouldn't hate something I trust my life with. But I get what you are saying. It's a work truck versus a Ferrari.

What kinds of revolvers do you collect?

[PuddleMonkey]

Ok, we are certainly kindred spirits. That sounds almost identical to my situation. Although I don't "hate Glocks." I trust my life with them. And I wouldn't hate something I trust my life with. But I get what you are saying. It's a work truck versus a Ferrari.

What kinds of revolvers do you collect?

My beef with Glock is really more their fanboys. They work, I never worry about them not working. Their fanboys are unbearable.

I like the old S&W pre-locks. 5" or 6" barrel, I don't care for snub nose but I have them. My favorite revolver to shoot is the Ruger GP-100 6", old school 80's grips. If I really want to dial in my bullseyes I'll go single action, 6" or 8" barrel. Sold my Python and Anaconda when that dumb tv show made them popular. I'd have to look but I don't think I have any Colt revolvers left. I don't know if any of my top 5 guns would be revolvers though. You?

[OhioLawyerF5]

My beef with Glock is really more their fanboys. They work, I never worry about them not working. Their fanboys are unbearable.

I like the old S&W pre-locks. 5" or 6" barrel, I don't care for snub nose but I have them. My favorite revolver to shoot is the Ruger GP-100 6", old school 80's grips. If I really want to dial in my bullseyes I'll go single action, 6" or 8" barrel. Sold my Python and Anaconda when that dumb tv show made them popular. I'd have to look but I don't think I have any Colt revolvers left. I don't know if any of my top 5 guns would be revolvers though. You?Like cards, I don't tend to sell guns either. It's a disease. So I still have my 1974 Python. Kept it through those crazy times. I have a 1969 Cobra, and several first gen Single Action Armies. My favorite to shoot is my 1903 Bisley in .38-40. But ammo that obscure can get pricey. I have a Colt letter for that one. I had the legend, Jim Martin completely redo the action on it. His work is top notch, and true restoration to the original action. It's like butter.

I never got into Smiths, but my wife carries a Model 60 LadySmith with a 2.75" barrel.

[PuddleMonkey]

Like cards, I don't tend to sell guns either. It's a disease.

I was quickly approaching triple digits and something had to be done. I don't have room for more safes.



My favorite to shoot is my 1903 Bisley in .38-40.

https://i.imgur.com/YhQylto.gif


Colts will always have a strong following.

[rwperu34]

I finally got the Price Index updated on March 20th. That was the first update since Feb. 17. It was flat over that month, so my guess is the peak hit somewhere between those two dates. The median player is down 5% during that timeframe.

Now the big question is what happens over the 4-6 weeks? Or as I like to call it, 2nd tax season. The last few years this stretch has been brutal. My guess is people paying their taxes is the biggest driver the seasonal pullback, so this year won't be any different. It's only a question of magnitude.

[PuddleMonkey]

I think puddle Monkey is really Bernie Sanders.

You millionaire card shop owners need to pay your fair share!

[solt0131]

I finally got the Price Index updated on March 20th. That was the first update since Feb. 17. It was flat over that month, so my guess is the peak hit somewhere between those two dates. The median player is down 5% during that timeframe.

Now the big question is what happens over the 4-6 weeks? Or as I like to call it, 2nd tax season. The last few years this stretch has been brutal. My guess is people paying their taxes is the biggest driver the seasonal pullback, so this year won't be any different. It's only a question of magnitude.

Just ask puddle, the market will be crashing and crashing hard.

[f2tornado]

Last year I said that the hobby AS IT STANDS has a 5 year window before it starts its skid. By 2030, enough losses will have piled up to drive away a good chunk of participants. I do think that the next 2-3 will be very good which falls into your window for the life span of this shop and like you, I am getting prepped for an exit and I don't think we're alone.

I'd like to hear the rest of this story...

Every time it skids, there's still plenty of collectors. Overproduction killed the speculators in the early 90s, the insert craze collapsed in the late 90s, then it was a couple decades of ho-hum aside from the usual vintage gains, then it started heating up in 2018 followed by the corona craze. Then prices collapsed on some modern rookies and slabbed base Topps. And here we are, still with piles of money moving around. Perhaps the next collapse will be the parallel side. Already seeing signs up it with Finest and Bowman's Best colors. Card show dollar boxes are filled with that stuff.