Strasburg...

[T_Hamilton]

Anyone know if RAZOR is gonna snag this guy to some exclusive deal once he signs??? Or can I hope to start saving my coin now to get his auto in Bowman Draft this year

[guru]

Anyone know if RAZOR is gonna snag this guy to some exclusive deal once he signs??? Or can I hope to start saving my coin now to get his auto in Bowman Draft this year

I doubt Razor can aford it at this point.

[petyparamoreAHS]

Anyone know if RAZOR is gonna snag this guy to some exclusive deal once he signs??? Or can I hope to start saving my coin now to get his auto in Bowman Draft this year

If you want to pay 200 for a base chrome go ahead, to me he's not even worth investing because of the injury factor and overall ceiling.

[solt0131]

If Razor signs him to an exclusive deal, this will ensure their demise.

[Zacky1053]

If you want to pay 200 for a base chrome go ahead, to me he's not even worth investing because of the injury factor and overall ceiling.

I agree. Prices for him will be as if he's already an MLB superstar even just after the draft. IMO things can only go downhill from there. Just my opinion. Then again I thought the same thing about LeBron James his rookie year and stuff has gone up. Who knows?

[Casebreaker]

I agree. Prices for him will be as if he's already an MLB superstar even just after the draft. IMO things can only go downhill from there. Just my opinion. Then again I thought the same thing about LeBron James his rookie year and stuff has gone up. Who knows?

Agreed, Pitchers always go down, especially since he already has all they hype right now.

[Jaypers]

Topps will get him on a BCDP auto. Believe it.

[Zacky1053]

Agreed, Pitchers always go down, especially since he already has all they hype right now.

Right. It's not gonna be like some "decent" prospects whose Bowman Chrome autographs sell for $30-$50 out of the gate, and then skyrocket when the player becomes successful. 99% of collectors will buy the hype surrounding Strasburg, therefore setting initial prices very high. If you thought David Price was highly touted last year, I cannot imagine what difference there will be with Strasburg this year.

[Zacky1053]

Plus now that I think of it I can imagine any Strasburg autos in Bowman will be extremely difficult to find, only helping prices skyrocket.

[ohiomike]

Other "can't miss" pitchers taken #1 overall in the MLB draft in the last 30 years:

Mike Moore (1981) 161 Wins, 4.39 ERA
Tim Belcher (1983) 146 Wins, 4.16 ERA
Andy Benes (1988) 155 Wins, 3.97 ERA
Ben McDonald (1989) 78 Wins, 3.91 ERA
Brien Taylor (1991) NO MLB EXPERIENCE
Paul Wilson (1994) 40 Wins, 4.86 ERA
Kris Benson (1996) 69 Wins, 4.40 ERA
Matt Anderson (1997) 15 Wins, 5.19 ERA
Bryan Bullington (2002) 0 Wins, 5.08 ERA
Luke Hochevar (2006) 6 Wins, 5.63 ERA
David Price (2007) 1 Win, 2.35 ERA

10 Players, 2 career All-Star appearances combined.

Hopefully Price and Strasburg can be the exceptions to the rule, but I would not be dropping $150-$200 (probably what a BCDP Auto would go for) on any Strasburg card just just yet...

[Zacky1053]

I agree. IMO, the only way to get Bowman Chrome "1st Year Autos" is when they're about $30-$50 (or even really cheap ones) and hope for the best. But shelling out that much money for an autograph before he even sees the field, REGARDLESS, is crazy if you ask me.

[T_Hamilton]

Thanks guys... definately helped out... and think there were some great points brought up...plus he is gonna get picked by the Nationals so he really doesnt even have a fighting chance

[Zacky1053]

Thanks guys... definately helped out... and think there were some great points brought up...plus he is gonna get picked by the Nationals so he really doesnt even have a fighting chance

I wanted to point that out but then again all #1 Draft Picks go to a horrible team so to me I didn't feel it was necessary.

[bmc398]

Does anybody remember a guy named Albert Pujols??? How much were his chrome cards then? How much are they now??? If a guy hits it big and sustains dominance for 5 years its a $500+ card. One in which you paid $150-$250 for at release. Its a big gamble...and more times than not doesn't work out, but the kid throws 100+, has been more than dominant at the college level and would probably go straight to the bigs (especially with the Nationals). Its a bet i'd take at least once and buy one base...odds are you won't lose your shirt on it.

[pskell02]

That and I wouldn't be that down on the Nationals. That is going to be a good team if they can find some starting pitching. Strasburg will help them immensely. They can hit the cover off the ball, its just tough to outscore the other team every night with little to no help from the pitching staff.

So as long as the kid doesn't blow up his arm, I think his Chrome cards are going to be a good investment.

[ohiomike]

Does anybody remember a guy named Albert Pujols??? How much were his chrome cards then? How much are they now??? If a guy hits it big and sustains dominance for 5 years its a $500+ card. One in which you paid $150-$250 for at release. Its a big gamble...and more times than not doesn't work out, but the kid throws 100+, has been more than dominant at the college level and would probably go straight to the bigs (especially with the Nationals). Its a bet i'd take at least once and buy one base...odds are you won't lose your shirt on it.

So did Paul Wilson. Strasburg could be a great pitcher in the majors, but history shows that big time college pitchers, even the ones that are "can't miss" or "best college pitcher ever", can easily fail from poor to mediocre performance (Ben McDonald / Paul Wilson) or injury (Mark Prior).

And I'm tired of hearing the speed that Strasburg CAN throw the ball at. He has almost ZERO control over his pitches if he's throwing 100+. If you watch any games he's pitched or follow any reports of scouts from game situations, he consistently peppers the mid to high 90's, but almost NEVER touches 100 mph much less 104 mph. There are and have been many major league pitchers that have similar skill sets to Strasburg. He's not a once in a lifetime prospect. He may very well end up being an Ace in the majors for his career, but he could just as easily end up on the scrap heap of either failed or injured pitching prospects that never lived up to the hype.

[petyparamoreAHS]

Does anybody remember a guy named Albert Pujols??? How much were his chrome cards then? How much are they now??? If a guy hits it big and sustains dominance for 5 years its a $500+ card. One in which you paid $150-$250 for at release. Its a big gamble...and more times than not doesn't work out, but the kid throws 100+, has been more than dominant at the college level and would probably go straight to the bigs (especially with the Nationals). Its a bet i'd take at least once and buy one base...odds are you won't lose your shirt on it.

I'd rather spend my money on Mike Leake (2nd best college pitcher and would be much more known if not for Stras) who will be 1/10 of the price and buy 10base chrome autos (if he even has) of him than one of Stras.

Leake: 1.23ERA, 15-1, 124.2IP, 20BB, 143K, 18EBH, .169OBA, 7CG
Stras: 1.32ERA, 13-1, 109.1IP, 19BB, 195K, 14EBH, .172OBA, 2CG

Leake has a better ERA in a big time hitters park in Packard, more IP, lower OBA, more CG and is less likely to get injured.

[bmc398]

I don't think you can say for sure Leake is less likely to be injured...you're not a doctor and haven't seen inside of his arm. His arm motion and velocity leave him suscepitble but that doen't mean hes gunna get hurt...

From an investment standpoint you're right on a guy who has good upside and can get their cards for $20 instead of $200. Especially with chrome...its a lot easier for a base auto to appreciate form $20 and be more acessible to more buyers even at the $100 level than it is for you to have a $200 card shoot up to $1000 and have to find and secure a buyer. I love pulling high end cards but I hate selling them!!!

My point isn't that this kid is can't miss...its that he's been dominant at the college level and will get a shot early and quickly in the majors. While a base chrome auto at $200 would be a steep price to pay, people probably felt that way about Pujols, but look where his stuff is at now. David Wright...Ryan Howard...all had times to sell when their stuff was throught the roof. I feel this kid will have his time as well, no matter how his career turns out (but he has to make SOME kind of impact)

[petyparamoreAHS]

I don't think you can say for sure Leake is less likely to be injured...you're not a doctor and haven't seen inside of his arm. His arm motion and velocity leave him suscepitble but that doen't mean hes gunna get hurt...

From an investment standpoint you're right on a guy who has good upside and can get their cards for $20 instead of $200. Especially with chrome...its a lot easier for a base auto to appreciate form $20 and be more acessible to more buyers even at the $100 level than it is for you to have a $200 card shoot up to $1000 and have to find and secure a buyer. I love pulling high end cards but I hate selling them!!!

My point isn't that this kid is can't miss...its that he's been dominant at the college level and will get a shot early and quickly in the majors. While a base chrome auto at $200 would be a steep price to pay, people probably felt that way about Pujols, but look where his stuff is at now. David Wright...Ryan Howard...all had times to sell when their stuff was throught the roof. I feel this kid will have his time as well, no matter how his career turns out (but he has to make SOME kind of impact)

I agree with everything you just said, Strasburg will definately have times when you can make profits, but if he either sucks or blows out his arm you're screwed. But if he starts the 2010 season with the Nats and starts opening day (which I think he will) and goes like 7 Innings and strikeouts out like 15 then his prices will jump quite a bit, but that's a big if.

[Zacky1053]

Yeah. I was probably wrong when I said things could only go downhill. But as others have mentioned, they will be high-priced right out of the gate, leaving little room for error. If you're willing to invest in him, good luck to you. I think pitchers are the perfect example of someone who can go from a stud to a dud coming to the Majors. Not saying Strasburg will, but ANYTHING can happen.

[T_Hamilton]

SO with all this Strasburg talk who do you like out of Bumgarner, Price, Hansen and Porcello???? Bumgarner's stats are unreal at Single A and Double A... is that gonna transalte into the bigs... heck you can pick up a bumgarner, price and porcell auto rc for the price of a strasburg...

[Zacky1053]

Not sure. Porcello's looked pretty good at the Major League level so far...

[bmc398]

as just pitchers or prospects??? I'm a huge fan of Porcello but im afraid that if it isn't a high end bowman parallel its not going to continue to grow in value. His Donruss cards really aren't doing that well for a kid who is 20 and already has won 6 MLB games...on top of that the Diamond kings and Playoff Contenders designs aren't really that appealing visually anyway...at least not anything close to the way his chrome and sterling cards look.

Price's time to sell was the playoffs last year...with the Rays not really tearing up the standings currently I don't see his cards doing any better this year then last. You can pick up his Chrome autos for $45 now tho so if you wanna possibly catch a little upside and maybe make a little profit...or just like the guy its a decent pick up right now.

Hanson's parallels already sell well...and he has an auto coming out in 09 Bowman Chrome...I don't see his base autos taking off too much tho. The Braves have made it pretty clear by bringin up Medlen before him they are going to wait until he's all the way ready AND avoid arbitration. Colors will sell well, but probably about the same as his 07 BC stuff.

I personally saw him pitch in spring training against my Tigers. Got hit a lot. people love his slider and its a good pitch but he throws a HARD fastball and is so tall he literally releases it on top of you. he'll be dominant if he could ever locate it.

Bumgardner is a real spot to profit. You could snap up his 07 Sterling autos for $6-$10this time last year and now sells for $35. If he keeps tearing it up expect there to still be some room for growth there.

[T_Hamilton]

great advice... I have a Bumgarner Bowman Chrome XFractor auto and the Donruss EEE Rick Porcello... I think Price is a little over... well PRICED... dont know too much about Hanson outside of him not really having any autos on the market... I was gonna try and wait for the 09 chromes to come out and get a refractor or Xfractor of his... Any thoughts about Jordan Zimmermann so far??? I am have his Bowman chrome but am thinking about selling...

What do you guys think of selling the following
1) Bowman Chrome Austin Jackson Ref Auto
2) Jordan Zimmermann Bowman Chrome Auto
3) Derek Holland Bowman Chrome Auto
4) Daniel Bard Bowman Chrome Auto

and using the proceeds to pick up
1) Jason Heyward Bowman Chrome Ref Auto and
2) Mike Moustakas Bowman Chrome Ref Auto

Think it would be a good swap? and realistic price wise???

thanks guys...

[petyparamoreAHS]

great advice... I have a Bumgarner Bowman Chrome XFractor auto and the Donruss EEE Rick Porcello... I think Price is a little over... well PRICED... dont know too much about Hanson outside of him not really having any autos on the market... I was gonna try and wait for the 09 chromes to come out and get a refractor or Xfractor of his... Any thoughts about Jordan Zimmermann so far??? I am have his Bowman chrome but am thinking about selling...

What do you guys think of selling the following
1) Bowman Chrome Austin Jackson Ref Auto HOLD
2) Jordan Zimmermann Bowman Chrome Auto HOLD
3) Derek Holland Bowman Chrome Auto HOLD
4) Daniel Bard Bowman Chrome Auto SELL

and using the proceeds to pick up
1) Jason Heyward Bowman Chrome Ref Auto and
2) Mike Moustakas Bowman Chrome Ref Auto

Think it would be a good swap? and realistic price wise???

thanks guys...

I'd hold the Jackson until he gets called up and the Yankee fans go nuts over it and it could be a $100 card. Zimmermann's price are too low to sell right now. Holland is the same way as Zimmermann, except it's 1 of 2 of his autos, and Zimmermann's best auto/rc is 07 Elite and Holland's is 08 Chrome. Bard just got called up a few weeks ago and is just a reliever. And even if you were going to get the Heyward and Mous, I'd get an 07 Sterling of Heyward and a 07 Elite of Mous, those will sell for more than a base chrome will in the long run.

[T_Hamilton]

thanks for the advice... 1) any thoughts on when AJ will get called up... it seems like he has done all he can at SWB... also 2) just curious of your rationale behind the 07 EEE Moustakas and 07 Sterling Heyward... is it because they are a year earlier? thanks again for your advice... as you can tell i am a yound collector working a limited budget so I have to pick and choose my cards

[petyparamoreAHS]

thanks for the advice... 1) any thoughts on when AJ will get called up... it seems like he has done all he can at SWB... also 2) just curious of your rationale behind the 07 EEE Moustakas and 07 Sterling Heyward... is it because they are a year earlier? thanks again for your advice... as you can tell i am a yound collector working a limited budget so I have to pick and choose my cards

1. Possibly at the end of the year, but more than likely the start of the 2010 season.
2. Yes generally the earlier auto's will get more than a later chrome one would if the brand is Elite or Sterling.

[bmc398]

I still think the Chrome Heyward and Moustakas base chrome cards will always sell the same as the sterling or EEE. Being on chrome makes it valuable even though its not their first year. The Heyward Chrome looks better than the Heyward sterling. The Moustakas chrome to me is more desirable too because of the card design. 07 Donruss EEE is always a great buy but the card design doesn't reach out and grab me and in my opinon 2008 Bowman Chrome was the best looking base design out of all of the chromes.

[jbellis74]

Boras is looking for a 50 million signing bonus for Strasburg :eek:

I dont know if Washington has 50 million to throw at him. If they dont they better find it.

Jayson Stark: Time to fix the Major League Baseball draft - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=4227655)

Looks like the largest signing bonus went to Buster Posey last year at 6.20 million

[ohiomike]

Boras is looking for a 50 million signing bonus for Strasburg :eek:

I dont know if Washington has 50 million to throw at him. If they dont they better find it.

Jayson Stark: Time to fix the Major League Baseball draft - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=4227655)

Looks like the largest signing bonus went to Buster Posey last year at 6.20 million

Scott Boras is certifiably insane if he thinks he's going to get anywhere close to a $50 million signing bonus for Strasburg. EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE WOULD BALK AT THAT!!! It would essentially tear down the entire infrastructure of baseball contracts giving Draft Picks almost Free Agency salaries before ever playing a single game.

Tim Beckham
Buster Posey
Pedro Alvarez
David Price
Matt Wieters

What was the SUM TOTAL of those 5 top picks combined? $30 Million. TOTAL! Where does Boras get off thinking he can for the signing bonus of pretty much the top 5 draft picks of the last 2 years combined, PLUS $20 Million more?!?!

Strasburg is going to get a record bonus by a LARGE margin, but I'd be willing to bet its no more than $15 million, if that.

[Jaypers]

Stark (and many other pundits like him) are panicking over nothing.

Boras never tips his hand early. This supposed $50M is just a fantasy, dreamed up by someone far more deranged than I am.

Strasburg doesn't have near that amount of leverage, and both he and Boras know it.

$15M, tops. That's my guess.