Ratio of #1 Pick Bust vs. Success

[NonFlammable]

Had an interesting conversation w/ a friend who suggested just stocking up on the #1 pick every year. I had to google the list since I couldn't remember past about '05...

So here's the #1 picks starting in '87 w/ Jr (I guess that's as good a benchmark as any). What would you say, about 50/50 success vs bust?




2012 Carlos Correa
2011 Gerrit Cole
2010 Bryce Harper
2009 Stephen Strasburg
2008 Tim Beckham
2007 David Price
2006 Luke Hochevar
2005 Justin Upton
2004 Matt Bush
2003 Delmon Young
2002 Bryan Bullington
2001 Joe Mauer
2000 Adrian Gonzalez
1999 Josh Hamilton
1998 Pat Burrell
1997 Matt Anderson
1996 Kris Benson
1995 Darin Erstad
1994 Paul Wilson
1993 Alex Rodriguez
1992 Phil Nevin
1991 Brien Taylor
1990 Chipper Jones
1989 Ben McDonald
1988 Andy Benes
1987 Ken Griffey, Jr.

[fert360]

Im thinking 60/40

[ninjacookies]

Ben Mcdonald and Nevin...good times.

[dthimesch]

I count more busts about 11 good 15 busts. But the thing is some of the ones I counted as goods have never really been "good" in the hobby so you may have to take them and put them in the bust category base solely on "hobby bust"

[Homerun]

Had an interesting conversation w/ a friend who suggested just stocking up on the #1 pick every year. I had to google the list since I couldn't remember past about '05...

So here's the #1 picks starting in '87 w/ Jr (I guess that's as good a benchmark as any). What would you say, about 50/50 success vs bust?




2012 Carlos Correa - Not Sure
2011 Gerrit Cole - Not Sure
2010 Bryce Harper - Success
2009 Stephen Strasburg - Success
2008 Tim Beckham - Bust
2007 David Price - Success
2006 Luke Hochevar - Success
2005 Justin Upton - Success
2004 Matt Bush - Bust
2003 Delmon Young - Not Sure
2002 Bryan Bullington - Bust
2001 Joe Mauer - Success
2000 Adrian Gonzalez - Success
1999 Josh Hamilton - Success
1998 Pat Burrell - Success
1997 Matt Anderson - Not Sure
1996 Kris Benson - Success
1995 Darin Erstad - Success
1994 Paul Wilson - Not Sure
1993 Alex Rodriguez - Success
1992 Phil Nevin - Success
1991 Brien Taylor - Bust
1990 Chipper Jones - Success
1989 Ben McDonald - Success
1988 Andy Benes - Bust
1987 Ken Griffey, Jr. - Success

Those are my opinions.

[pkscards]

Obvious Successes: Harper, Strasburg, Price, J. Upton, Mauer, Griffey, A-Rod, Chipper, Hamilton, A-Gon, (10)

Other Successful Careers: Nevin, Erstad, Burrell, Benes (4)

Ehhh: Benson, Hochevar, Delmon, P. Wilson, B. McDonald (5)

Busts: M. Anderson, Beckham, Bush, Bullington, Taylor (5)

Too Early: Cole, Correa (2)

--------------------------------------
So in terms of REALLY being successful with high card sales levels (superstar) 10/24

In terms of having a solid career 14/24

[bogeyfreeround]

For being the number 1 pick, you gotta be a star, mediocre careers are not acceptable...Griffey,mauer,arod,chipper,adrian gonazales, took hamilton a bit, upton still young but good so far, down year, price is on his way, but not at the others tier yet. Starsburg and harper are scorching, but it has only been 2-2 1/2 years combined in the majors. but hobby wise of course harper and stras are a success.

[dlab85]

I think stocking up on #1 is a bad idea, seeing as they have nowhere to go but down. Their autos almost always start very high. Now if you had stocked up on Matt Barnes or Jose Fernandez back in December and January, you would have made a MINT by now

[ufcwecfan]

10 maybe 11 good/great players. The rest.........

[thenwhatjk]

why did tim beckham never have chrome cards?

[ScooterD]

#1 draft picks have the highest percentage of HOFer's compared to being drafted in any other spot. It's a relatively low percentage, but still higher than any other draft slot. The only higher option (for HOF %) is a free agent signing

[IamRalpho]

How is Luke Hochevar a success but Delmon Young is a not sure?

There needs to be 3 categories:

Busts: Matt Bush, Brien Taylor etc
Major Leaguers: Paul Wilson, Hochever
Stars: Upton, Strasburg, Harper.

[dawger13]

i guess it would depend on what you call a bust. Some of these guys were good players who had nice careers they just weren't HOF careers. If you look purely from the hobby perspective it would seem not to make much sense to concentrate on only the #1's.