MLB Network reporting an offseason trade of Justin Upton for Elvis Andrus;Profar time

[jasonadkins]

Phil Rogers of MLB Network just reported that it is looking like a strong possibility in the offseason and makes sense for both teams. He said Profar will get a September Call Up and the Rangers are grooming him to take over Shortstop in 2013.

Also, Rogers spoke about the Under Armour All American game and he said that scouts are saying that Trey Ball from Indiana is head and shoulders above anyone else from the 2013 Draft Class in High School, apparently including Austin Meadows. Ball is a 6'6" two way player who he said can be a first rounder as a LHP or Outfielder, but he said that he can be a game-Changer as a Corner Outfielder with his overall skills. I had to check out his capsule on Baseball America, you can scroll down to the middle of the page to see Ball's: BaseballAmerica.com: High School: Events: Cape Code Classic: 2012 Under Armour All-American Game Player Capsules (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/high-school/events/under-armour-all-america-game/2012/2613895.html)

[Turd Ferguson]

I think that will play out a lot more after the September call-up to see how Profar does in the show.

Personally, I'm not so sure I like it. Andrus is only 24 (in a few days, 25) and has pretty good command of the shortstop position. Upton is good and would solidify the outfield so they wouldn't have to platoon Gentry and Murphy, but his numbers are way down and he still strikes out too much. They'd be bringing up a dude who strikes out a lot more than Andrus, and make more errors in the field. He has more power, but getting more hits and stopping more balls will eventually equate to more runs - Elvis' WAR is significantly higher than Upton's.

There is some sense to the trade, but not if you're giving up good for okay. Make Profar learn the outfield. Keep them both.

[GoA's]

Send Andrus to the A's..We could use a SS

[Srt42004n]

Send Andrus to the A's..We could use a SS

Could also use Barry Bonds, Melky Cabrera, Ryan Braun.... just to name a few

[Andrew Jones]

From what I've seen and heard, Ball is going to be a pitcher. Yes he's a good athlete and yes he can hit but his future is on the mound.

[obenheimer]

Well I don't want to see Andrus leave Texas, but as long as he doesn't get traded to the Yankees, I'll be happy. I just feel Texas will be losing out if they get rid of Andrus and Profar doesn't equal up to the same caliber of fielder. He has more power than Andrus and will hit more homers, but will he get on base as much as Andrus. Profar is still young and will surely mature, but I feel Texas might be jumping the gun.

[jasonadkins]

Well I don't want to see Andrus leave Texas, but as long as he doesn't get traded to the Yankees, I'll be happy. I just feel Texas will be losing out if they get rid of Andrus and Profar doesn't equal up to the same caliber of fielder. He has more power than Andrus and will hit more homers, but will he get on base as much as Andrus. Profar is still young and will surely mature, but I feel Texas might be jumping the gun.

I'm kind of with you on this one, Andrus looks like he can one day end with a career of 2500 Hits and 400+ Stolen Bases while playing great defense at Shortstop, yet the Rangers are so eager to replace him with a 19 Year Old. Profar has definitely played above his age at every level, but he hasn't put up earth-shattering numbers to make a young All Star just go away. Granted, even on a down year, Justin Upton is still young and will be one of the better players in baseball for a long time, so they aren't just letting Andrus go for peanuts. If the Rangers reach three consecutive World Series this year with Andrus still a young player who probably hasn't even had his "Career Year" yet, it is hard to imagine them rocking the boat this much.

It should be fun to see, and I've been a little bit of a Profar-doubter so far, but I was also a Longoria-doubter in 2006-2008, so I have been known to be wrong (I'm also not a sheep that thinks that every top prospect will automatically become a future Hall of Famer, so I've been right about others who have come up short also).

[BOOMER7]

Send Andrus to the A's..We could use a SS

..... in 2-3 years you'll see ADDISON RUSSELL in that A's spot or 3b.

[Win4Vin]

anyone else think the DBacks would be selling low on Upton? i realize SS is a premium position but i feel like the Rangers would be winning that trade. either way, as a Dodgers fan i would be happy to see Upton out of the division. ;)

[IamRalpho]

It would need to be more than Andrus for Upton, but that trade makes a lot of sense. Way too much sense actually.

[TXGunslinger]

It would need to be more than Andrus for Upton, but that trade makes a lot of sense. Way too much sense actually.

I see it the other way where would need to be more than Upton for Elvis. Elvis is younger and plays a more premium position. I still think Upton will have a great career but he hasn't lived up to potential yet and neither has his brother. I personally would take Elvis heads up as Elvis is also an asset in clubhouse.

[Codyfinesse]

Upton is the same age not older

[TXGunslinger]

Upton is the same age not older

Might want to recheck your dates as I believe Upton is 1 year older.

[jasonadkins]

Upton is 24 years old and is signed through 2015 (three more full seasons after this season) at just under $10 Million per season.

Andrus is signed through 2014 (two full seasons after this season ends) at just uner $5 Million per season.

Not sure, but my guess is that Upton is an Unrestricted Free Agent when his contract i sup, my guess is that Andrus is probably under team control via arbitration eligibility for another two years after his contract ends (not positive on that one, just my guess since he signed a shorter contract that early in his career).

Andrus's Range factor is better than the MLB average for Shortstops over his four seasons, and he averages about 20 Errors per season. Not Gold Glove numbers, but all in all, any MLB team can live with those numbers since he is a solid hitter with good speed on the basepaths.

As for Upton, which Justin Upton do you expect? He posted an OPS of .899 in 2009 as a 21 year old, and .898 as a 23 year old. The two years aside from those, he posted a .799 OPS in 2010 and a .753 OPS this season. His range factor is just below the MLB average since his career began, but slightly above average the last fours seasons. Granted, Upton does not play a premium position, which Andrus does.

It sill be interesting to see how this shakes out, you can make a case for either one straight up in my opnion when position and salary are factored in. If the Rangers really feel like they have a future Jeter-type or better in Profar, and at least the quality of an Elvis Andrus, then why not add in a 25 year old Justin Upton for three seasons at $10 Million per?

[jasonadkins]

And in other news, Jurickson Profar went 5 for 6 in a AA game at San Antonio tonight.

[TXGunslinger]

Upton is 24 years old and is signed through 2015 (three more full seasons after this season) at just under $10 Million per season.

Andrus is signed through 2014 (two full seasons after this season ends) at just uner $5 Million per season.

Not sure, but my guess is that Upton is an Unrestricted Free Agent when his contract i sup, my guess is that Andrus is probably under team control via arbitration eligibility for another two years after his contract ends (not positive on that one, just my guess since he signed a shorter contract that early in his career).

Andrus's Range factor is better than the MLB average for Shortstops over his four seasons, and he averages about 20 Errors per season. Not Gold Glove numbers, but all in all, any MLB team can live with those numbers since he is a solid hitter with good speed on the basepaths.

As for Upton, which Justin Upton do you expect? He posted an OPS of .899 in 2009 as a 21 year old, and .898 as a 23 year old. The two years aside from those, he posted a .799 OPS in 2010 and a .753 OPS this season. His range factor is just below the MLB average since his career began, but slightly above average the last fours seasons. Granted, Upton does not play a premium position, which Andrus does.

It sill be interesting to see how this shakes out, you can make a case for either one straight up in my opnion when position and salary are factored in. If the Rangers really feel like they have a future Jeter-type or better in Profar, and at least the quality of an Elvis Andrus, then why not add in a 25 year old Justin Upton for three seasons at $10 Million per?

Very good analysis:)!

I do know that Andus is unrestricted FA when this contract is up as current deal just covered all arbitration years. Boras didn't let the Rangers get any FA years on the deal and I believe Boras is the only reason that Rangers will consider moving him.

[IamRalpho]

I think Upton has more value due to to the fact he has more potential, that he hasnt even tapped yet. Both players are under contract for at least 2 years so the contracts cancel each other out (Yes Upton has another year, but still).

This is very close, contracts, age, and even production. I am not sure how you can quote range factor for Andrus, then OPS for Upton. Wouldnt you want to compare them using the same stats?

Upton is having a hugely disappointing year, but his career OPS is .830, where as Andrus is .699. Average is the same, but the OPS is a HUGE difference.

Upton is the better player, better contract, more potential. Only thing Andrus has over Upton is the position, not saying Andrus isnt a stud but when it comes to a deal the Rangers would need to add more to get someone with a career .830 OPS and signed for 3 more years.

[TXGunslinger]

I think Upton has more value due to to the fact he has more potential, that he hasnt even tapped yet. Both players are under contract for at least 2 years so the contracts cancel each other out (Yes Upton has another year, but still).

This is very close, contracts, age, and even production. I am not sure how you can quote range factor for Andrus, then OPS for Upton. Wouldnt you want to compare them using the same stats?

Upton is having a hugely disappointing year, but his career OPS is .830, where as Andrus is .699. Average is the same, but the OPS is a HUGE difference.

Upton is the better player, better contract, more potential. Only thing Andrus has over Upton is the position, not saying Andrus isnt a stud but when it comes to a deal the Rangers would need to add more to get someone with a career .830 OPS and signed for 3 more years.

I would agree with you that you should compare the same stats if the players played the same positions or even remotely close positions. OPS is of far more importance for a RF than a defensive SS.

[IamRalpho]

I would agree with you that you should compare the same stats if the players played the same positions or even remotely close positions. OPS is of far more importance for a RF than a defensive SS.

But if you are trading a former #1 pick with TONS of potential for a defensive SS, then you have a problem. You can get good defensive shortstops cheap, you dont trade a potential superstar if your sole focus on the other player is defense.

Doesnt work that way. Would be a terrible idea for the Dbacks to ignore Andrus OPS and the HUGE difference in stats and say "Well hes a great SS, lets trade this locked up superstar for him"

[TXGunslinger]

Never said all Andrus does is play defense. If you don't understand that there are different metrics for SS and RF I can't help you. Andrus is also younger, cheaper, and is also a superstar with TONS of potential but is actually doing more with it right now.

[IamRalpho]

Never said all Andrus does is play defense. If you don't understand that there are different metrics for SS and RF I can't help you. Andrus is also younger, cheaper, and is also a superstar with TONS of potential but is actually doing more with it right now.

I also understand you live in Texas and are a Rangers fan and extremely bias, if you cant see past that then I cant help you.

You are quoting range factor (Silly for a RF) and errors (Silly in general) when comparing TWO different positions.

Andrus is younger, and thats it. He isnt a superstar (Sorry, hes not). Upton is signed longer and has more potential, and has BETTER NUMBERS!

Its pointless because you're a Rangers fan but 130+ difference in OPS is a BIG DEAL and another year at 10$ million when Andrus will be more expensive when he becomes a FA is a BIG DEAL.

Quote range factors and errors all you want but the stats and potential, do....not.....lie.

My point is that the Rangers would need to add to get Andrus, no way its the other way around. Paying a former #1 pick, signed for 3 years, with better numbers and more potential for a "Great" defensive SS with a .699 career OPS?

LOL

[dbackschamp2001]

Honestly I think I would cry if the Dbacks traded Upton for anyone.

[TXGunslinger]

I also understand you live in Texas and are a Rangers fan and extremely bias, if you cant see past that then I cant help you.

You are quoting range factor (Silly for a RF) and errors (Silly in general) when comparing TWO different positions.

Andrus is younger, and thats it. He isnt a superstar (Sorry, hes not). Upton is signed longer and has more potential, and has BETTER NUMBERS!

Its pointless because you're a Rangers fan but 130+ difference in OPS is a BIG DEAL and another year at 10$ million when Andrus will be more expensive when he becomes a FA is a BIG DEAL.

Quote range factors and errors all you want but the stats and potential, do....not.....lie.

My point is that the Rangers would need to add to get Andrus, no way its the other way around. Paying a former #1 pick, signed for 3 years, with better numbers and more potential for a "Great" defensive SS with a .699 career OPS?

LOL

Can you please show where I quoted range factors and errors? Because if not I can start making up stuff you said also.

Oh and by the way potential means far less when you are no longer a prospect and have been in the league several years. All #1 picks have great potential but several are busts or disappointments. Being drafted #1 is no longer relevant.

You said above it makes no sense to compare defensive stats for a RF and a SS yet you try to do it with OPS. Guess what, all MLB teams expect better OPS from corner outfields than they do SS.

[Codyfinesse]

I think it's a dumb trade. Off year or not Upton is a huge talent with mvp numbers last year. He's only 25 and entering his prime. John McDonald is an amazing defensive ss and I don't see needing another one unless he comes with great offensive numbers

[TXGunslinger]

I think it's a dumb trade. Off year or not Upton is a huge talent with mvp numbers last year. He's only 25 and entering his prime. John McDonald is an amazing defensive ss and I don't see needing another one unless he comes with great offensive numbers

Are we talking the same John McDonald that turns 38 next month? I haven't watched him play much so I will take your word on how good he is. I think we both agree that we would rather keep our young superstar!