A quick prospect rant about me the board should know

[ctbinvestments]

OK, everyone knows I love prospects and I think I'm pretty unbiased when it comes to my opinions on them. Yes I still think Oscar Taveras is the #1 hitting prospect even though I do not own a single card of him. Anyway....I pretty much have received a few messages that pretty much say I'm crazy and don't know anything about baseball so I want to clarify a few things.

#1- I'm not a scout nor have the ability to be anymore than anyone else on this site. Yes I go to countless minor league games but that doesn't make me a talent evaluator by any means. I do study the boxscores and stats like others and look at historical trends as my metrics.

#2- My opinions are mostly based on my perceived investment potential of that player. Despite popular belief, I do not dislike Javier Baez...I dislike his investment potential when he was $60-65 per base auto in April. I would buy a few at $30. :)!

#3- I love all sports and baseball prospects in particular but I do not have any favorite team or MLB players. I am simply looking for the best ROI so please do not frown (or PM me telling me I'm crazy) when I think player x is a good buy even though he's not putting up eye popping numbers. I simply think there is room to make money on him...not that he's going to be the next Trout.

#4- If this is not acceptable to you please just skip over my posts. I try to be as informative and "unsecretive" as possible when people ask who I like or dislike. Again I'll give my point of view on why i dislike or like a player but it's all in the view of making money or not.

[MarshallCutler6]

Don't let anyone get to you. I get where you are coming from. Just keep stating your opinions, and if someone doesn't like it, too bad!

[dlab85]

I don't see what is wrong with any of your points. I agree with literally everything you have just stated.

Why people invest in a guy like Carlos Correa is beyond me. The kid can't hit for power, doesn't steal bases and sells for ~60-80 for a base chrome auto. I understand it is SP'd, but where is the ROI going to be on that. He could end up being a great ballplayer, he's doing well at an advanced level for an 18 year old, but it is high risk/low reward IMO. What if the kid ends up like Elvis Andrus? Does anybody care about his stuff then?

The reason why Trout had such a great ROI is that he was selling for pennies on the dollar. I usually wait to sell autos until they hit the show, or get really hot in the minors, but the one base auto I have of Correa was literally on eBay as soon as I could possibly list it.

I'd much rather put my money into 5-20 dollar autos and let it ride than pick up a Buxton, Correa, Tavares, Bogaerts (Sadly... I was buying up Refractor autos when I saw them at 50 after release... I bit the bullet because he was a Sox prospect... I no longer see that much room unless he has a Puig-esque debut) or any other minor leaguer who has such insane prices.

[metsplaya123]

I don't see what is wrong with any of your points. I agree with literally everything you have just stated.

Why people invest in a guy like Carlos Correa is beyond me. The kid can't hit for power, doesn't steal bases and sells for ~60-80 for a base chrome auto. I understand it is SP'd, but where is the ROI going to be on that. He could end up being a great ballplayer, he's doing well at an advanced level for an 18 year old, but it is high risk/low reward IMO. What if the kid ends up like Elvis Andrus? Does anybody care about his stuff then?

The reason why Trout had such a great ROI is that he was selling for pennies on the dollar. I usually wait to sell autos until they hit the show, or get really hot in the minors, but the one base auto I have of Correa was literally on eBay as soon as I could possibly list it.

I'd much rather put my money into 5-20 dollar autos and let it ride than pick up a Buxton, Correa, Tavares, Bogaerts (Sadly... I was buying up Refractor autos when I saw them at 50 after release... I bit the bullet because he was a Sox prospect... I no longer see that much room unless he has a Puig-esque debut) or any other minor leaguer who has such insane prices.
correa will develop power

[dlab85]

correa will develop power

That he may, but to sink that much money into his autos hoping for a large return is asinine. Lest we not forget that he doesn't exactly play in the collecting Mecca.

The point is there is a much better chance of Gavin Cecchini's chrome auto going from $5 to $10 than there is of Correa's going from $80 to $160. You also need to look at the possibility of regression. If Correa all of a sudden turns into Tim Beckham, you've lost your entire investment. If Cecchini never works out, at least you can send his autos to BO for $1.75 and get back nearly 40% of your original investment.

That says nothing about the two other than it is going to be very hard for Correa to maintain such pricing. Hell, you could look to his fellow Astros farmhands Singleton and Springer as living proof. All Singleton has done is manage a career .864 OPS while his autos hover around $15. Springer has only recently bumped, but the guy was around $15-20 per base chrome auto for the longest time, all the while having a minor league OPS around .900

Who really made money buying Bryce Harper chrome autos pre-call up and then selling them? They were going for $300 before he even hit the bigs.

[Cubs_rock21]

I don't see what is wrong with any of your points. I agree with literally everything you have just stated.

Why people invest in a guy like Carlos Correa is beyond me. The kid can't hit for power, doesn't steal bases and sells for ~60-80 for a base chrome auto. I understand it is SP'd, but where is the ROI going to be on that. He could end up being a great ballplayer, he's doing well at an advanced level for an 18 year old, but it is high risk/low reward IMO. What if the kid ends up like Elvis Andrus? Does anybody care about his stuff then?

The reason why Trout had such a great ROI is that he was selling for pennies on the dollar. I usually wait to sell autos until they hit the show, or get really hot in the minors, but the one base auto I have of Correa was literally on eBay as soon as I could possibly list it.

I'd much rather put my money into 5-20 dollar autos and let it ride than pick up a Buxton, Correa, Tavares, Bogaerts (Sadly... I was buying up Refractor autos when I saw them at 50 after release... I bit the bullet because he was a Sox prospect... I no longer see that much room unless he has a Puig-esque debut) or any other minor leaguer who has such insane prices.

$50 for a refractor auto of a player on one of the biggest markets in all of baseball has a ton of Flip potential. Those are the types of guys you want to stock up on. Bogaerts is a great buy. You can turn 50 into 75-80 a pop in spring training 2014. If he makes a splash that you're looking at 120-150 a piece. Remember Jackie Bradley?

[dlab85]

$50 for a refractor auto of a player on one of the biggest markets in all of baseball has a ton of Flip potential. Those are the types of guys you want to stock up on. Bogaerts is a great buy. You can turn 50 into 75-80 a pop in spring training 2014. If he makes a splash that you're looking at 120-150 a piece. Remember Jackie Bradley?

Ya I do... And that's why I was buying them at 50... They are currently selling for 150

[Junior Griffey]

I'm curious to get some opinions from others on Gioskar Amaya. I have a ton of his autos, and have bought a lot on this board, so no sense in trying to hide him.

[tazzy13]

OP, I've always enjoyed a little friendly banter with you regarding prospecting. Your insights on this subject have been admired by me as well... Being a fan of sport and an investor in the same arena don't always jive. Sorry something someone said didn't bode well with you; but you're good people in my book sir.

[JohnnysBench]

correa will develop power

Couldn't disagree more. Correa's ceiling is very low for a overall first pick. The Astros wanted to save money, they picked Correa. Invest in him and have another Hosmer on your hands...

[dawger13]

I certainly hope that nobody stops giving their opinion on this board, this information is valuable for everyone, especially people like me who dabble but don't have the time to devote to doing this on a regular basis.

[danny_666]

I think Correa will be fine, He's just 18, has a lot of room to grow into his body, and has a good feel for the game. The kid is hitting like .330 down in A ball, with a couple home runs and knows when to take a walk. People down on him mostly because they compare him with Buxton who is a bigger guy, and also older. Buxton I believe will be the number 1 coming into 2014 the way he is hitting, Correa will be a top 20, with room to grow as long as he does into his body and tap into his power.

[metsplaya123]

Couldn't disagree more. Correa's ceiling is very low for a overall first pick. The Astros wanted to save money, they picked Correa. Invest in him and have another Hosmer on your hands...
well that's what I have heard from many scouting reports. He is doing very well right now and is driving in runs which is very good for a ss. I think he is a pretty good buy in my book

[Dbott1234]

That he may, but to sink that much money into his autos hoping for a large return is asinine. Lest we not forget that he doesn't exactly play in the collecting Mecca.

The point is there is a much better chance of Gavin Cecchini's chrome auto going from $5 to $10 than there is of Correa's going from $80 to $160. You also need to look at the possibility of regression. If Correa all of a sudden turns into Tim Beckham, you've lost your entire investment. If Cecchini never works out, at least you can send his autos to BO for $1.75 and get back nearly 40% of your original investment.

That says nothing about the two other than it is going to be very hard for Correa to maintain such pricing. Hell, you could look to his fellow Astros farmhands Singleton and Springer as living proof. All Singleton has done is manage a career .864 OPS while his autos hover around $15. Springer has only recently bumped, but the guy was around $15-20 per base chrome auto for the longest time, all the while having a minor league OPS around .900

Who really made money buying Bryce Harper chrome autos pre-call up and then selling them? They were going for $300 before he even hit the bigs.


I bought about 15 of them for $200 in the off season. Graded some and sold others raw for $400. Have a nice stash of 9.5/10's and a few that I've let go for $600-650. I know I wasn't that only one that did that.

[Dbott1234]

Couldn't disagree more. Correa's ceiling is very low for a overall first pick. The Astros wanted to save money, they picked Correa. Invest in him and have another Hosmer on your hands...

I personally think that Correa will be a stud. He's still very young and can easily put on 20-25 lbs of muscle over the next few years. I see him as an 18-24 hr guy which is great production out of SS.

EDIT: I wish we had another Hosmer on our hand. His cards went absolutely through the roof. $600 chrome auto's... I'll take that.

[fungi2510]

Grow a pair and stop crying like a little girl. If you do it your way, then be a man and just do it. No one really needs to hear this stupid stuff.

[sportzking]

Lol, this thread reminds me of the people that say they study the lotto numbers. And that they will eventually hit the mega millions.

[statman32]

Lol, this thread reminds me of the people that say they study the lotto numbers. And that they will eventually hit the mega millions.

Yes very similar.

[dlab85]

I bought about 15 of them for $200 in the off season. Graded some and sold others raw for $400. Have a nice stash of 9.5/10's and a few that I've let go for $600-650. I know I wasn't that only one that did that.

Still, it takes a large jump in prices for you to double your money. A lesser prospect who has autos that sell for $20 at release (Trout) is going to be much easier to be profitable.

I personally think that Correa will be a stud. He's still very young and can easily put on 20-25 lbs of muscle over the next few years. I see him as an 18-24 hr guy which is great production out of SS.

EDIT: I wish we had another Hosmer on our hand. His cards went absolutely through the roof. $600 chrome auto's... I'll take that.

Hosmer chrome autos were severely SP'd. I opened 10 cases and hit 1 Hosmer, 0 Lawries, 0 Turners and 0 Ackleys from the run of Super SP autos in 2011 Chrome. There are going to be far too many Correa chrome autos to command that type of pricing barring him coming up and turning into Puig/Trout 2.0. Hosmer's print run was rumored to be in the 200-250 range and also had no refractor autos or blue autos. Only around 350 Eric Hosmer chrome autos are even in existence.

[Dbott1234]

While I agree Trouts were the better buys, not everyone looks at it from a % point of view. It is definitely easier to double your money with a $5 card, but I'd rather make $200 on a card.

Point being I prefer the higher risk/higher reward flipping.

I know Hosmer's were SSP, my point was that all Hosmer stuff exploded at one point. Averything that had his name on it was gold for a while. Buxton auto's are still selling for well over $100 and there are just as many of his as Correa's.

Everyone has a different view on prospecting, which is what makes it great. To the OP, do your thing and stick with it if it works. We all have our own style.

[JoshHamilton]

I think the word "investments" in your username adds a bit of false legitimacy to your opinions.

Don't take that as an insult - it's not intended to be.

The same way I'd listen to (and believe is more knowledgable) an investment firm called PrimeInvestments over one called WallStreetRules

[StraWMyerS]

I think you have the right idea when it comes to prospecting. Buying anything at the right price is how you turn a profit in this market. I can't remember how many times I've passed on something that could make me some $$ because I was too concerned with spending my whole budget on players I liked to collect for PC only to regret it later.

[dasiegel]

I don't really know how or why this thread got so off topic so back to the OP's OP. CTB is simply the man. I don't know him personally but he has given me a totally different way of looking at this stuff. I used to be the guy when i start prospecting last year to buy the top AAA guys waiting for callups. Now I look at it completely the opposite... not that i don't ever buy AAA players but where are their prices, what teams are they on, what price is their approx ceiling, should I skip this player based on low ROI potential, etc. I also do not owner a single Taveras. Part of this comes from advice by CTB, Chapmans and some of the other big boys on this site who share their information freely and without fear it might cost them in some way or give another person a tip that could potentially make it more difficult for them to buy a player on ebay.

2 main points everyone on this forum should know:

1) The reason this forum exists is because of information exchange. Whether it is about cards, a sport or something else, it's all about telling each other things you like, don't like, want , don't want etc. I am now good enough at prospecting that I get emails myself about advice and who to collect. And while it's ok to have a secret player or two, it's even better to tell people about them! Word of mouth, making threads, responding to other's threads etc. is a great way to hype up your own prospects and word of mouth is real, things spread fast. So, I advise everyone to share this information. It's fun to argue who will be good, who will suck and who will and won't sell, but without us talking, this forum would have a whole lot less value. and furthermore, don't get on a guy like CTB for sharing his opinion... in particular him bc he's pretty good at what he does.

2) A lot of people on this forum have forumitis... which technically means inflammation of the forum:/ There are so many cool people on here. Check my itrader, some of these guys are just good dudes/chicks. But as with everything their are plenty of dicks... don't be one of those dicks... I actually kinda helped changed someone's mindset who was being really negative in the basketball section and they eventually acknowledged they were being that way and I think after that really started enjoying the forum more and I think soonafter got some big pulls too. Generally being positive on here brings a lot more good info and a lot more fun.

Finally, CTB, don't take this too seriously. I have got sucked into forum wars before and it's seriously draining and annoying... and you won't win! Mostly bc people who would send you a pm like that would be the type of person who would just love getting under your skin bc they have no lives. So take a look in the mirror and say, "I'm F'n CTB #@#@#@#@#@#@es! I can't be getting pissed over some forum goons!"

This life and forum lesson has been provided by dasiegel... go Plawecki;)

[sportzking]

I'm sorry if I offend anyone by saying this. But I just don't agree with prospecting. Sure sometimes you make money but a lot of times you also lose money. There are no guarantees in making money in this hobby. It doesn't matter if said player is doing great that doesn't mean a thing. He could have a season ending injury the next day. And just because a card is expensive already it doesn't mean it won't go higher. A lot of times what you need is luck. There are tons of previous prospects that were great but never made it to the MLB level. Unless you're a dealer you just have to take this hobby as a hobby and not an investment.

[dasiegel]

I'm sorry if I offend anyone by saying this. But I just don't agree with prospecting. Sure sometimes you make money but a lot of times you also lose money. There are no guarantees in making money in this hobby. It doesn't matter if said player is doing great that doesn't mean a thing. He could have a season ending injury the next day. And just because a card is expensive already it doesn't mean it won't go higher. A lot of times what you need is luck. There are tons of previous prospects that were great but never made it to the MLB level. Unless you're a dealer you just have to take this hobby as a hobby and not an investment.

Nobody should be offended but you sound like the same people who say you can't make money in certain stocks or other investments or gambling etc. There are people who just figure it out, to say some people can't figure it out is simply not accurrate. If you buy smart for the right prices even if your wrong a decent percentage of the time you should still do ok. It takes time like learning anything else tho.

[metsplaya123]

I'm sorry if I offend anyone by saying this. But I just don't agree with prospecting. Sure sometimes you make money but a lot of times you also lose money. There are no guarantees in making money in this hobby. It doesn't matter if said player is doing great that doesn't mean a thing. He could have a season ending injury the next day. And just because a card is expensive already it doesn't mean it won't go higher. A lot of times what you need is luck. There are tons of previous prospects that were great but never made it to the MLB level. Unless you're a dealer you just have to take this hobby as a hobby and not an investment.
Whether I make money or not, I have a blast doing it.

I love looking at the stats of the prospects I'm holding and seeing if they had a good game or not.

I also love seeing one of my prospects make the hot list it makes me feel like I'm doing this right.

[dasiegel]

Whether I make money or not, I have a blast doing it.

I love looking at the stats of the prospects I'm holding and seeing if they had a good game or not.

I also love seeing one of my prospects make the hot list it makes me feel like I'm doing this right.

Also a great point, its a lot of fun to see the next big name guys and know about them before the main guy do. It's fun niche collecting area.

[sportzking]

Nobody should be offended but you sound like the same people who say you can't make money in certain stocks or other investments or gambling etc. There are people who just figure it out, to say some people can't figure it out is simply not accurrate. If you buy smart for the right prices even if your wrong a decent percentage of the time you should still do ok. It takes time like learning anything else tho.

Oh, thats not what I'm trying to say. All I'm saying is you should look at cards as a hobby first. Of course people can make money, I sure have and I'm not trying to stop anyone. But a lot of the times luck determines if you make money too.

[dasiegel]

Oh, thats not what I'm trying to say. All I'm saying is you should look at cards as a hobby first. Of course people can make money, I sure have and I'm not trying to stop anyone. But a lot of the times luck determines if you make money too.

Well I think that is my other point some people have developed systems over a lot of time, research and stats and luck plays a very small role for them. Another thing is that this hobby can be whatever people want it to be. For some the chance of making money is the same joy as the collector who PCs a common player.

[Tugarpj]

Oh, thats not what I'm trying to say. All I'm saying is you should look at cards as a hobby first. Of course people can make money, I sure have and I'm not trying to stop anyone. But a lot of the times luck determines if you make money too.

You should look at it the way you want to look at it. For some it is a hobby, for some it is a business. For many it is a some of each. To each his own. There is no right or wrong way to look at it.

[dasiegel]

You should look at it the way you want to look at it. For some it is a hobby, for some it is a business. For many it is a some of each. To each his own. There is no right or wrong way to look at it.

Totally agree.