Stat Goons: Interesting article on pitching prospects

[dasiegel]

Gives a different take on who might succeed this spring looking at FIP aka the pitching stats that pitchers have 100% control over.

Top 100 Prospect FIPs in 2013 | MiLB.com News | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball (http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140213&content_id=67477142&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb)

[Thommy]

You can tell it's BS because there are 2 giants in the top 3

[jumbogorilla]

You can tell it's BS because there are 2 giants in the top 3

I like the way you think. :)!

[hoopster3977]

And CJ at the top of the list.

[lazygambler]

And CJ at the top of the list.

Metsplaya at the very least is going to pop a semi reading this article, and think it is the most reliable source yet.

[matvoo]

Ventura that low and zimmer wow they sure hate kc

[preakness]

Nice to see Heaney Meyer folty odorizzi biddle make any list

[texgator]

Metsplaya at the very least is going to pop a semi reading this article, and think it is the most reliable source yet.
CJ has always been high on stat-heavy lists....the problem is most baseball people don't scout by stats (particularly with pitchers). Even those that do utilize stats as a portion of the overall scouting process will discount stats accomplished by someone playing against younger competition...as CJ has been. I'm not sure anyone considers MiLB to be a "reliable" source when it comes to prospect valuations.

[dasiegel]

Nice to see Heaney Meyer folty odorizzi biddle make any list

With all that talent in Houston, nobody talks about Folty, I only have 3 Folty cards and 2 worth anything but man, I think this guy is a beast and his stock is gonna go up, wish i bought more how cheap they were.

CJ has always been high on stat-heavy lists....the problem is most baseball people don't scout by stats (particularly with pitchers). Even those that do utilize stats as a portion of the overall scouting process will discount stats accomplished by someone playing against younger competition...as CJ has been. I'm not sure anyone considers MiLB to be a "reliable" source when it comes to prospect valuations.

Yea but stats are stats, if BA posted the stats would you value it more. There is no doubt his first true test will come this year at AA but he dominated both levels he played at last year so hopefully stats don't lie. I always thought age was an overrated factor. Guys get penalized for playing in college, remember #21 Springer the almost 40/40 guy everyone loves is 25.

[texgator]

Yea but stats are stats, if BA posted the stats would you value it more.
What? No. I don't even know why you would suggest that. Stats are only part of the story, no matter who "posts" them. More so with pitchers... more so with pitchers at the low levels of the minors....and even more so with pitchers at the lower minors who are older than most of their competition. As a former Rangers prospect, I was accutely aware of CJ's stats before this article.

[dasiegel]

What? No. I don't even know why you would suggest that. Stats are only part of the story, no matter who "posts" them. More so with pitchers... more so with pitchers at the low levels of the minors....and even more so with pitchers at the lower minors who are older than most of their competition. As a former Rangers prospect, I was accutely aware of CJ's stats before this article.

I'm just responding to milb.com not being a great scouting source. I think there is a lot of information to use from there. I agree stats are only part of the story, similar to someone who only used sabermetrics or something, it doesn't tell the whole tale. I also think to only listen to subjective scouting reports from BA or similar sources can be a mistake.

But I'm also adding that I don't think age is as big of a factor in my prospecting experience. It isn't dispositive that someone won't be good just because they are a bit older than the competition. we are probably more on the same page than this back and forth shows.

[texgator]

I'm just responding to milb.com not being a great scouting source.
Well, it isn't. This article was nothing but a collection of pitching stats that anyone could have put together. There was nothing of substance. The only thing of value from a scouting perspective on MiLB is the weekly top hitters/pitchers articles during the season...and even those are heavily stat driven.

But I'm also adding that I don't think age is as big of a factor in my prospecting experience. It isn't dispositive that someone won't be good just because they are a bit older than the competition. we are probably more on the same page than this back and forth shows.

That's true....it doesn't "prove" anything....but it is also a good reason to at least look at the stats with some level of skepticism. CJ is an interesting case and it will be fun to see what he does this coming season at AA. I'm rooting for him...but I think he ultimately ends up as an impact bullpen piece in the majors, not as a starter.

[jewcer2k5]

What does FIP mean?

[centereacan06]

What does FIP mean?

Fielding Independent Pitching. Pretty much a stat that shows a pitcher's ability based solely on outcomes that only he can control (Strikeouts, Homeruns, Walks/HBP, and Innings Pitched).

The formula is (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average (---> Baseball Prospectus | Glossary (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP)).

[jewcer2k5]

Fielding Independent Pitching. Pretty much a stat that shows a pitcher's ability based solely on outcomes that only he can control (Strikeouts, Homeruns, Walks/HBP, and Innings Pitched).

The formula is (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average (---> Baseball Prospectus | Glossary (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP)).

Thanks...If Montero lives up to that ranking I will be happy :)

[WalrusCircus]

I like that list! 2 Giants in the top three!

[centereacan06]

Thanks...If Montero lives up to that ranking I will be happy :)

You and me both :)!

[dasiegel]

Well, it isn't. This article was nothing but a collection of pitching stats that anyone could have put together. There was nothing of substance. The only thing of value from a scouting perspective on MiLB is the weekly top hitters/pitchers articles during the season...and even those are heavily stat driven.

Well we just see this differently. If you value stats and milb was the one that put this together then it can be useful. As we both said, it's far from the whole picture but it has some value. Milb also just has general news about players, teams, injuries, ballparks, etc. If you add that to the whole picture I think it can help a lot in the card world, just my humble opinion.

That's true....it doesn't "prove" anything....but it is also a good reason to at least look at the stats with some level of skepticism. CJ is an interesting case and it will be fun to see what he does this coming season at AA. I'm rooting for him...but I think he ultimately ends up as an impact bullpen piece in the majors, not as a starter.

It def will be interesting. I am one of those people who doesn't see him moving to the bullpen. If he gets rocked at AA I guess it's a possibility but he's the Cubs top prospect starter right now on many lists and there is definitely room on that staff for a good starter. This year is the big test for him. If he can not even dominate but have a solid mid 3s ERA and show he can be durable (he pitched 4-6 innings a lot) I think he stays a starter.

[metsplaya123]

It def will be interesting. I am one of those people who doesn't see him moving to the bullpen. If he gets rocked at AA I guess it's a possibility but he's the Cubs top prospect starter right now on many lists and there is definitely room on that staff for a good starter. This year is the big test for him. If he can not even dominate but have a solid mid 3s ERA and show he can be durable (he pitched 4-6 innings a lot) I think he stays a starter.
cj Edwards was placed on a 5 innings limit, it wasn't his durability. He flat out dominated from start to finish, and he could have gone more plenty of times.