Hot Rookies case run estimation... feel free to correct me

[Joe]

While a lot of people are turned off by Hot Rookies product being released by Panini in a week or so, I was wondering how many cases everyone thought there would be. I did some quick math (while trying to stop a puppy from destroying my house) and thought I'd post it.

What's everyone's thoughts on the number of cases? Below are the numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them were off, busy morning.

My guess would be somewhere around 1350-1400 cases? Here are the numbers, feel free to make any corrections if you see an error.

Pack #2 numbers

Rookies (110 subjects) - randomly inserted
- Scorecard numbered to 99 (10,890 total)
- Showcase numbered to 79 (8690 total)
- Gold Zone numbered to 50 (5,500 total)
- Artist's Proof numbered to 35 (3850 total)
- Red Zone numbered to 20 (2,200 total)
- End Zone numbered to 6 (660 total)
- Gem Masters numbered 1 of 1 (110 total)
- Printing Plates (Black, Cyan, Magenta, Yellow) numbered 1 of 1 (440 total)

Hot Rookies (50 subjects) - randomly inserted
- Showcase numbered to 99 (4,950 total)
- Artist's Proof numbered to 35 (1,750 total)
- Gem Masters numbered 1 of 1 (50 total)
- Printing Plates (Black, Cyan, Magenta, Yellow) numbered 1 of 1 (200 total)

(39,290 total)


You get 21 guaranteed rookies /99 or less per case (at least one /99 rookie per pack and 1 pack with ten /99 rookies..
so 11 in first 11 packs and then 10 in one pack) Lets say you average 1.5 per pack instead of 1 , so 16.5 plus the 10
from the one pack is 26.5. So 39,290 total rookie cards numbered to 99 or less if they fell at 26.5 per case would equal
1,482 cases. If the /99 cards fell at the stated 1 per pack plus the hot pack of 10 that would mean 21 which would mean
1,870 cases.

Thoughts? And yes... I'm aware of it looking cheap and it appears they just slapped Hot Rookies over the Score logo.

[Frankp2311]

There is really no way to figure this out yet until we see the final odds. I assume you are going off the sell sheet here and that can all change. I think a lot of stores passed on this product because of the box configuration. I know a few shops I go to are not getting it because they don't want to have to try and sell a box of score for $100+. This is perfect for group breakers and I think those that rip and flip will do well with it too. The only downside will be competing with Bowman football because I think most buyers will those that over Score.

[Joe]

There is really no way to figure this out yet until we see the final odds. I assume you are going off the sell sheet here and that can all change. I think a lot of stores passed on this product because of the box configuration. I know a few shops I go to are not getting it because they don't want to have to try and sell a box of score for $100+. This is perfect for group breakers and I think those that rip and flip will do well with it too. The only downside will be competing with Bowman football because I think most buyers will those that over Score.

Agreed. If it was originally going to come out the same day as Bowman I probably would have passed... but I thought I had a week to try and sell what I wanted before Bowman hit. True about the box configuration... should be interesting though.

[oldgoldy97]

I have heard that Panini prints a set amount no matter if the stuff is ordered or not and that Topps bases production on how much is ordered.

That may or may not be true.