Why 2014 Football Is Brutally Bad This Year

[HadWayTooMuch]

A customer of mine bought a box of Valor today.

Both autos were Taj Boyd.

Seriously, is it possible to get worse than that?

This is why football is so bad. It's nearly impossible to pull a decent card. I can't remember a time where it was this bad. I wonder if the cost of the good player autos has increased to such a degree that they are overstuffing the Taj Boyds of this world into the boxes at a greater pace than usual.

[Ajax1723]

A customer of mine bought a box of Valor today.

Both autos were Taj Boyd.

Seriously, is it possible to get worse than that?

This is why football is so bad. It's nearly impossible to pull a decent card. I can't remember a time where it was this bad. I wonder if the cost of the good player autos has increased to such a degree that they are overstuffing the Taj Boyds of this world into the boxes at a greater pace than usual.

Football is bad this year. I understand the class is underperforming a tad from the skill position players, but there are still a bunch of strong players this year, like Evans, Benjamin, Beckham, etc. But even prices are down across the board. Manziel is going for a less than Tebow autos were going for in 2010, and they are pretty much the same deal, lots of hype, lots of publicity, but the sales just aren't there. Not to mention you can get autos /50 from some licensed products of Bortles, etc. for 40 or less.

Not to mention it is near impossible this year, as you were saying. I'm fulling expecting there to be next to no base autos of Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater, Watkins, etc, and maybe no refractor autos of any of them. It's just bad all around.....

[HadWayTooMuch]

Football is bad this year. I understand the class is underperforming a tad from the skill position players, but there are still a bunch of strong players this year, like Evans, Benjamin, Beckham, etc. But even prices are down across the board. Manziel is going for a less than Tebow autos were going for in 2010, and they are pretty much the same deal, lots of hype, lots of publicity, but the sales just aren't there. Not to mention you can get autos /50 from some licensed products of Bortles, etc. for 40 or less.

Not to mention it is near impossible this year, as you were saying. I'm fulling expecting there to be next to no base autos of Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater, Watkins, etc, and maybe no refractor autos of any of them. It's just bad all around.....

You are 100% right about underperforming, but I believe the problem is how hard it is to pull anything.

Nobody would complain pulling a Benjamin, Beckham, Manziel, etc even if the values were lower than expected. But the ridiculous amounts of Taj Boyd (I've pulled a few myself) are what is killing it.

[panther252]

You KNOW it's a bad hobby year when you're praying to god you hit a WR instead of one the QB or RB.

[theblemishedone]

Next year will be a very strong year for ALL sports and all LICENSED brands. I am holding out until Chicago for most of my stuff. And I mean the National.

And 2014 isn't as brutal as you might think. It might take a year or two for some of these cards to start moving.

[BirdLaw]

Football is bad this year. I understand the class is underperforming a tad from the skill position players, but there are still a bunch of strong players this year, like Evans, Benjamin, Beckham, etc. But even prices are down across the board. Manziel is going for a less than Tebow autos were going for in 2010, and they are pretty much the same deal, lots of hype, lots of publicity, but the sales just aren't there. Not to mention you can get autos /50 from some licensed products of Bortles, etc. for 40 or less.

Tebow got a chance to play in 2010. Manziel's autographs have fallen so much because there's not much hope of him cracking the starting lineup barring injury. Let's see what happens to those sales when he sees the field.

Blake Bortles went to a mid-major school, was considered overhyped and not worthy of the top QB pick by most people I knew, went to the single worst team possible both on the field and in the hobby, and is playing poorly. It's hard to find more of a perfect storm than that.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Next year will be a very strong year for ALL sports and all LICENSED brands. I am holding out until Chicago for most of my stuff. And I mean the National.

And 2014 isn't as brutal as you might think. It might take a year or two for some of these cards to start moving.

You're missing my point. Obviously rookies can develop and become more valuable over time, but the odds are, Taj Boyd and similar players are going nowhere. And too many of them are coming out of the expensive packs.

[Qwasian]

I haven't pulled any of the top rookies stuff out of any of my several cases, valor, prime, topps, etc etc....... and I bought multiple cases........ not a single big named qb or receiver.

hopefully that changes with topps chrome............ I pulled a sammy watkins out of prizm but the topps stuff has been really tough this year on auto's and nice patch cards,atleast for me, it's been alot tougher than previous years, I had really good luck pulling top guys for the last several years in almost all the products from topps when I bought several cases like this.

I think I made more money off team sets and single cards than any auto/patch/jersey I pulled in valor, nothing big named or very decent at all in there.

c'mon chrome!!! lol

[theblemishedone]

Unfortunately, that's the gamble we take when we break packs as opposed to buying singles. I'd love to hit a 1 of 1, but so would everyone else.

I have yet to buy a box of any 2014 football product. I am buying a ton of singles and will continue to do so until next year's draft.

No one is putting a proverbial gun to our heads.

You're missing my point. Obviously rookies can develop and become more valuable over time, but the odds are, Taj Boyd and similar players are going nowhere. And too many of them are coming out of the expensive packs.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Unfortunately, that's the gamble we take when we break packs as opposed to buying singles. I'd love to hit a 1 of 1, but so would everyone else.

I have yet to buy a box of any 2014 football product. I am buying a ton of singles and will continue to do so until next year's draft.

No one is putting a proverbial gun to our heads.

If Person X buys say 3 cases of Product Y that features a total of say 72 autos, should Person X not get a few decent autos just by accident?

That is all I'm saying. I realize you don't get a superfractor out of every box. But to see the quantity opened that I have and to read the posts and such and realize how little good stuff is being pulled, it explains to me why people are souring on football this year. Last year was hotter with a terrible rookie class. But even I pulled a Geno Smith and an EJ Manuel without breaking the bank in cases.

[Frankp2311]

If Person X buys say 3 cases of Product Y that features a total of say 72 autos, should Person X not get a few decent autos just by accident?

That is all I'm saying. I realize you don't get a superfractor out of every box. But to see the quantity opened that I have and to read the posts and such and realize how little good stuff is being pulled, it explains to me why people are souring on football this year. Last year was hotter with a terrible rookie class. But even I pulled a Geno Smith and an EJ Manuel without breaking the bank in cases.

I agree. Even in 2012 I was pulling Luck and RG3 left and right with the quantity I broke. I stared 2014 off the same way with large quantities and did not see one top RC auto. Out of 25 boxes of Bowman my best auto was of Carlos Hyde. So I get what you are saying.

[preakness]

I so wanted Boyd autos in the razor U.S. army all
American stuff

[arkeeper]

I agree. Topps seems worse than Panini. It was insanely depressing watching online case breaks of Finest and seeing none of the top rookies pulled.

I bought into 3 or 4 planning to get at least one nice Teddy Bridgewater. Hopefully more, but at least one! I got a die cut. That was it. Not even a numbered parallel. Seems like they put in only numbered, and the top rookies are numbered lower. So not only are there no base autos to pull, but the numbered ones are even harder to pull.

[DalliLlama11]

I agree. Even in 2012 I was pulling Luck and RG3 left and right with the quantity I broke. I stared 2014 off the same way with large quantities and did not see one top RC auto. Out of 25 boxes of Bowman my best auto was of Carlos Hyde. So I get what you are saying.

didnt a lot of 2012 products have a guaranteed luck/rg3 per case tho? i know 212 strata had a guaranteed clear cut auto of 1 of them.

[Ajax1723]

didnt a lot of 2012 products have a guaranteed luck/rg3 per case tho? i know 212 strata had a guaranteed clear cut auto of 1 of them.

That is not true, they were not guaranteed in Strata.

[davidsemo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, they started SP-ing the base autos on the big name guys in 2012 with Luck and rg3, no? My guess is that the guys at the top are demanding more money for the same amount of work, and as the companies belch out more and more #@#@#@#@ product, they have to conserve in the #@#@#@#@ so they have the sigs on the higher end stuff.

[hairysasquatch]

Stick a fork in Football - it's over for good once Panini gets the exclusive.

[knownas2letters]

I was thinking for a bit it might have been me and the way I've been buying ( a lot of retail and a tiny LCS who doesn't focus on sports). If I have ever predicted something accurately I predicted that in 2013 it would be easier to attain an auto or nice card of a player who was perceived to be top tier, but not actually performance/value wise (Geno Smith, Montee Ball, E.J. Manuel, Eddie Lacy).... You know the people on the cover of the products. In 2013 it was easier to hit those guys than Luck, RG3, Wilson,, and even Trent Richardson in 2012. In 2014 it just seems like if I pulled a numbered auto it's of someone I've literally never heard of and if I pull a stud its an insert at best. It's getting to the point of the year where the good products are coming out and the entry level sets have run their course... I hope they surprise us with some solid value in the next run.. I won't hold my breath.

[Qwasian]

Unfortunately, that's the gamble we take when we break packs as opposed to buying singles. I'd love to hit a 1 of 1, but so would everyone else.

I have yet to buy a box of any 2014 football product. I am buying a ton of singles and will continue to do so until next year's draft.

No one is putting a proverbial gun to our heads.



yeah but the typical value content hasn't been there this year........ I don't expect to hit a 1/1 with every case, but when you get full cases with just NOTHING in them, it's a little different, they used to atleast give you nice cards even if it was a nobody player or something to that effect and you'd hit a top name every now and then, this year has been just tons of scrubs, and then more scrubs, and when you don't get a scrub they give you 3 or 4 of the same "OTHER" scrub..........hopefully that means the later products will have higher value content....... hopefully starting with chrome, the 50 case break will be very interesting to watch and hear feedback from.

[k13]

Correct me if I'm wrong, they started SP-ing the base autos on the big name guys in 2012 with Luck and rg3, no? My guess is that the guys at the top are demanding more money for the same amount of work, and as the companies belch out more and more #@#@#@#@ product, they have to conserve in the #@#@#@#@ so they have the sigs on the higher end stuff.

Doubt they cost that much more just topps being a bitch.

There's no sp's like that in basketball or hockey just baseball and football.....Topps. ...yet people love them...

[usafshelland]

I think this is the same story we hear every year. Rookies underperforming, I pulled crap, and am complaining about it.

Case in point, 2011, how many Kaepernicks were pulled and people up in arms saying "wow, I got a #@#@#@#@ing Kaepernick" only for a mere season later that his Contenders is over $200 in BV (I believe at one time it was over $600).

Its too early to judge how "crappy" a rookie class is at least well into their playing careers (3-4 years).

[trixstar]

Next year will be a very strong year for ALL sports and all LICENSED brands. I am holding out until Chicago for most of my stuff. And I mean the National.

And 2014 isn't as brutal as you might think. It might take a year or two for some of these cards to start moving.

why is next year going to be so special?

[trixstar]

I think this is the same story we hear every year. Rookies underperforming, I pulled crap, and am complaining about it.

Case in point, 2011, how many Kaepernicks were pulled and people up in arms saying "wow, I got a #@#@#@#@ing Kaepernick" only for a mere season later that his Contenders is over $200 in BV (I believe at one time it was over $600).

Its too early to judge how "crappy" a rookie class is at least well into their playing careers (3-4 years).

This is true, part of the problem with this hobby now is that if someone can't turn around and sell their cards for what they paid for the box they think it sucks.

[CLE12342]

Unfortunately, that's the gamble we take when we break packs as opposed to buying singles. I'd love to hit a 1 of 1, but so would everyone else.

I have yet to buy a box of any 2014 football product. I am buying a ton of singles and will continue to do so until next year's draft.

No one is putting a proverbial gun to our heads.

Next year, you only have Mariota and Cooper. Winston is a maybe, just depends on how his hearing goes. But tell me again, how bad this rookie class is :coffee:

[bakedogg83]

I haven't bought a single box from 2013 or 2014. Maybe a blaster or 2 of chrome from target and that it. Just enough to feed the itch. I have been buying singles and let everyone else take the hit from buying the boxes.

[Qwasian]

I think this is the same story we hear every year. Rookies underperforming, I pulled crap, and am complaining about it.

Case in point, 2011, how many Kaepernicks were pulled and people up in arms saying "wow, I got a #@#@#@#@ing Kaepernick" only for a mere season later that his Contenders is over $200 in BV (I believe at one time it was over $600).

Its too early to judge how "crappy" a rookie class is at least well into their playing careers (3-4 years).


people weren't down on kaepernick in 2011...... that was a decent pull.... all the QB's were..... it's a totally different scenario because you have rookies performing very well and still not selling, that's not the same thing. if this draft class performed with the sales of the 2011 football card market everybody would be making a ton of money, alot of rookies are doing great this year they aren't underperforming at all.....

[Qwasian]

This is true, part of the problem with this hobby now is that if someone can't turn around and sell their cards for what they paid for the box they think it sucks.

this is not at all what people are talking about, there is a legitimate decrease in value cards being put into the cases so far, it's not about the rookies performing etc, the cards just aren't in there at the same type of ratios, not even close. I would have been more than happy to just pull top players reguardless of the value........it's not that the cards aren't selling that's the issue, it's the fact that the cards aren't even in the cases to sell.

[ManInTheMirror]

I don't think it's actually as brutally bad as some make it seem to be.

[Qwasian]

I don't think it's actually as brutally bad as some make it seem to be.

i'ono man, its been pretty rough, if chrome is made up anything like valor, and the rest of previous products we will definately know because that 50 case break will have a large amount of backlash complaining. the good side of things is the singles have done pretty decent this year, you can make more off singles than patches & auto's from cases

[BOOMER7]

How far below direct cost will TC drop:coffee:

[chondaville]

How far below direct cost will TC drop:coffee:

Far I'd say. Going to be selling them under cost by Wednesday. Good deals to be had!

[HadWayTooMuch]

I think this is the same story we hear every year. Rookies underperforming, I pulled crap, and am complaining about it.

Case in point, 2011, how many Kaepernicks were pulled and people up in arms saying "wow, I got a #@#@#@#@ing Kaepernick" only for a mere season later that his Contenders is over $200 in BV (I believe at one time it was over $600).

Its too early to judge how "crappy" a rookie class is at least well into their playing careers (3-4 years).

There have been a lot of replies to this thread, but I certainly hope this is not geared towards me.

My point had nothing to do with 1 person opening a box or a case. It has to do with what seems like EVERYONE opening boxes and cases and finding NONE of the key rookies.

[theRLO]

I think this is the same story we hear every year. Rookies underperforming, I pulled crap, and am complaining about it.

Case in point, 2011, how many Kaepernicks were pulled and people up in arms saying "wow, I got a #@#@#@#@ing Kaepernick" only for a mere season later that his Contenders is over $200 in BV (I believe at one time it was over $600).

Its too early to judge how "crappy" a rookie class is at least well into their playing careers (3-4 years).

I agree that it usually takes 3-4 years into a career before you can assess if they are a star or someone worth collecting. Of course there are those rookies that make a splash right away like Andrew Luck....

[Qwasian]

I agree that it usually takes 3-4 years into a career before you can assess if they are a star or someone worth collecting. Of course there are those rookies that make a splash right away like Andrew Luck....

completely missing the point, the rookie class has been great......... :cool: they have performed, that's not the problem.

[Clarka3]

Stick a fork in Football - it's over for good once Panini gets the exclusive.

correct me if I'm wrong, but Topps has been the ones with the unofficial SP list in their products since 2012 Finest...

[NobodysXHero]

You are 100% right about underperforming, but I believe the problem is how hard it is to pull anything.

Nobody would complain pulling a Benjamin, Beckham, Manziel, etc even if the values were lower than expected. But the ridiculous amounts of Taj Boyd (I've pulled a few myself) are what is killing it.

Tyler Wilson says "hello." Dude was in every 2013 product it seemed.

[Braswell10]

Not buying any 2014 Football product this year. Truthfully, I enjoyed 2013's products a lot more than this years.

[Qwasian]

correct me if I'm wrong, but Topps has been the ones with the unofficial SP list in their products since 2012 Finest...

used to not be as big of a deal, I did pretty good with panini prizm this year though so I'm not really complaining about the pulls from that, pulled some nice ones.

[usafshelland]

There have been a lot of replies to this thread, but I certainly hope this is not geared towards me.

My point had nothing to do with 1 person opening a box or a case. It has to do with what seems like EVERYONE opening boxes and cases and finding NONE of the key rookies.

This was in no way a direct attack at you as a person, just your concept (isn't that what we all do anyways). I would ask you to define whom is a "key rookie"? Using my example, there is no way that Kaepernick was a "key rookie" back in '11. SF went on a playoff run to the NFC title game under Alex Smith. In '12 is when Alex Smith gets hurt, Kaep goes crazy winning game after game and eventually landing in the SB. There was no rhyme or reason to can Alex Smith outside that Kaep was leading the Niners to a SB on a rookie contract. The rookie contract alone is what makes me believe that SF canned Alex and run with Kaep. I can hardly remember who the lead guy was for the '11 draft (sCam Newton).

I agree that it usually takes 3-4 years into a career before you can assess if they are a star or someone worth collecting. Of course there are those rookies that make a splash right away like Andrew Luck....

Yea, but those rookies are usually quite rare. I believe Andrew Luck is the only one in recent memory that appeared to be ready to play in the NFL immediately (looking at how dominant a player was in college before the NFL). Even JJ Watt was a "whose that" kind of guy when he was drafted... the only other guys I can recently recall that had that kind of label on them was Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. (Both whom have had exceptional careers to date). Everyone else has kind of been a toss up.

That is why I say it's too early to judge whom the "key" rookies are in this class. Another example I can throw out there is the Broncos' Brock Osweiler. No one knows what he's really going to do for the Broncos once Peyton departs. Unfortunately, I don't even know that Osweiler is the guaranteed incumbent to the position. No one has really seen him play, and the Broncos are going to have to make a keep or release decision here in the near future as his rookie contract expires. Granted, maybe that's a good thing for the Broncos so they can resign him cheap. Potentially, he could be a really great sleeper if ends up performing well, but I wouldn't ID him as a key rookie either.

[Qwasian]

This was in no way a direct attack at you as a person, just your concept (isn't that what we all do anyways). I would ask you to define whom is a "key rookie"? Using my example, there is no way that Kaepernick was a "key rookie" back in '11.


he wasn't a top tier rookie, but he was good, it wasn't a scrub pull like tajh boyd or somebody is now........ all the QB's sold decent in 2011.... yes cam newton was one of the best pulls, alot of other people performed well in the market is the point, dalton, cobb, all the QB's and when people had good games they had price spikes, this year players have done well and didn't even spike, terrance west ran for over 100 yards had a good game and his auto could be purchased for under $10....... has never been like that before.


it's not too early to judge who key rookies are from the class at all, tons have already played and done well, they would have already been key rookies in previous years.

[usafshelland]

he wasn't a top tier rookie, but he was good, it wasn't a scrub pull like tajh boyd or somebody is now........ all the QB's sold decent in 2011.... yes cam newton was one of the best pulls, alot of other people performed well in the market is the point, dalton, cobb, all the QB's and when people had good games they had price spikes, this year players have done well and didn't even spike, terrance west ran for over 100 yards had a good game and his auto could be purchased for under $10....... has never been like that before.

As bad as the NYJ are, why not give Tajh Boyd a shot? They can't get any worse, can they?

[usafshelland]

he wasn't a top tier rookie, but he was good, it wasn't a scrub pull like tajh boyd or somebody is now........ all the QB's sold decent in 2011.... yes cam newton was one of the best pulls, alot of other people performed well in the market is the point, dalton, cobb, all the QB's and when people had good games they had price spikes, this year players have done well and didn't even spike, terrance west ran for over 100 yards had a good game and his auto could be purchased for under $10....... has never been like that before.


it's not too early to judge who key rookies are from the class at all, tons have already played and done well, they would have already been key rookies in previous years.

I could only give you 3 top rookies for 2014 so far... Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans. Outside that... I have no clue.

[Morgoth]

I could only give you 3 top rookies for 2014 so far... Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans. Outside that... I have no clue.

Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Bishop Sankey have all had moments and are good pulls

[MeetJSquared]

I could only give you 3 top rookies for 2014 so far... Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans. Outside that... I have no clue.

Sammy Watkins and Anthony Barr.

[Qwasian]

I could only give you 3 top rookies for 2014 so far... Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans. Outside that... I have no clue.

other guys who would have performed from previous years are:

clowney, bortles, watkins, manziel, bridgewater, carr, sankey, hill, hyde, garappolo, landry, mason, bryant, west, bryant........... among others......

these guys all had hype or good games, in previous years that would have translated to much better sales.........

[usafshelland]

Let me just lead off that this is a debate...no one is right or wrong...

Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Bishop Sankey have all had moments and are good pulls

But they are all good pulls based upon speculation... I really haven't seen any of them being too consistent.

Sammy Watkins and Anthony Barr.

Totally forgot about Sammy Watkins... No idea about Barr.

other guys who would have performed from previous years are:

clowney, bortles, watkins, manziel, bridgewater, carr, sankey, hill, hyde, garappolo, landry, mason, bryant, west, bryant........... among others......

these guys all had hype or good games, in previous years that would have translated to much better sales.........

I'm assuming you are referring to college performance or sales performance? We haven't seen much from Clowney yet. Bortles, ehhh. Watkins, I'll give you that one. Manziel, too much hype. Bridgewater, I didn't even think he was a good QB coming out of Louisville, regardless of the analysis on him. He's still not the answer in Minnesota. Everyone else on that list is all speculation, nothing consistent yet.

I think Manziel and Clowney sold well in preseason because there was so much hype/speculation, but now that the season has unfolded they are no where to be found. OBJ is hot cakes right now because he's had a pretty consistent 3 (?) weeks now?

[BOOMER7]

Far I'd say. Going to be selling them under cost by Wednesday. Good deals to be had!

Could be sub $500 on the WHOLESALE level before end of the year:eek:

[oldgoldy97]

I said football was sucking about a month ago. Nothing has changed since then. Rookie WRs don't carry the load with collectors (unless they are Randy Moss) and the QBs have been inconsistent at best. The better rookie RBs weren't hot coming in and haven't picked up much steam despite some good games (Hill). From a pure football sense this class has been good. From a collecting sense, this class is ho-hum. I've actually had decent luck pulling some of the better players this year but it's not all that exciting. Maybe a hot product will pop up out of the blue and get us excited.

[Qwasian]

Let me just lead off that this is a debate...no one is right or wrong...



But they are all good pulls based upon speculation... I really haven't seen any of them being too consistent.



Totally forgot about Sammy Watkins... No idea about Barr.



I'm assuming you are referring to college performance or sales performance? We haven't seen much from Clowney yet. Bortles, ehhh. Watkins, I'll give you that one. Manziel, too much hype. Bridgewater, I didn't even think he was a good QB coming out of Louisville, regardless of the analysis on him. He's still not the answer in Minnesota. Everyone else on that list is all speculation, nothing consistent yet.

I think Manziel and Clowney sold well in preseason because there was so much hype/speculation, but now that the season has unfolded they are no where to be found. OBJ is hot cakes right now because he's had a pretty consistent 3 (?) weeks now?



in 2011 you could get 40-50+ for a cam newton colored refractor card first week of sales. andy dalton was up there too along with many other rc's, now you can't even crack $10 for the same refractors, it's still a market, it's just alot less than what it used to be. you can still sell cards, just nowhere near the profit.

[Coventry6546]

As bad as the NYJ are, why not give Tajh Boyd a shot? They can't get any worse, can they?

He is not on the Jets anymore...he plays on the Boston Brawlers now...seriously!

[Morgoth]

in 2011 you could get 40-50+ for a cam newton colored refractor card first week of sales. andy dalton was up there too along with many other rc's, now you can't even crack $10 for the same refractors, it's still a market, it's just alot less than what it used to be. you can still sell cards, just nowhere near the profit.

Personally I think it's due in part to two things. Injuries and the changing style of play.

Injuries have scared off many from investing big bucks in a guy who could be gone like that. Other sports do not have such a short shelf life. It has completely devalued the RB position to the point that many teams have gone to committees. Run and gun QB's have all gotten hurt recently or haven't been as effective. Cam Newton looks like an old man already.

Play style has changed to the point that if you are a QB and are not throwing for 3500 yards and 20+ td's a season you are looking for a new job. WR's with 1200 plus yards are easy to find. QB's are given no time to come to speed so it's either sink or swim because it's all on you buddy. Teams used to protect QB's by their run game (Roethlisberger, Flacco etc.), now look at Carr or Mettenberger having to throw 30+ times a game.

Collectors have just started to figure out that if they wait it will all come back down in price. Very few players from the past 5 years have really maintained value.

[jbrandonw]

Yeah I think part of it is there's not near as Manu people wanting to pay the high prices after a release unless its pc anyways. Like the guy above me said, everyone knows the cards will come down. Even when a guy blows up, it seems like his cards don't stay high for long.

[MeetJSquared]

Very few players from the past 5 years have really maintained value.

Luck seems to be the only 'hold' right now, which is why his stuff (esp. Contenders) just aren't taking a dip at all. I can't think of anyone else.

Aside from collecting your team or favorite players, it seems that very few are holding for a value increase.

As has been stated everywhere, QBs are what push the value of any given year and WRs just don't have the value, regardless of how great this WR class is looking.

[BOOMER7]

FB market is just soft in general:
Look at a product like 2011 CONTENDERS: you get
5-6 AUTOS per box for one of the deepest OVERALL rookie classes in the last 20 years. The case sells for below direct cost:eek:
Boxes can be had for $100 or less.
Production was up for contenders in 2011 but still about half of what the 2014 TC production looks to be.

[MeetJSquared]

FB market is just soft in general:
Look at a product like 2011 CONTENDERS: you get
5-6 AUTOS per box for one of the deepest OVERALL rookie classes in the last 20 years. The case sells for below direct cost:eek:
Boxes can be had for $100 or less.
Production was up for contenders in 2011 but still about half of what the 2014 TC production looks to be.

The only thing that is saving Chrome, is the amount of set-builders. There will still be people putting together the various refractor/color sets as well as the rainbows.

Contenders is strictly auto hits, while Chrome still has value all around; people will still want Chrome RCs and refractors. I understand though, that the higher-end of the spectrum might drop in value as a result.

[Qwasian]

The only thing that is saving Chrome, is the amount of set-builders. There will still be people putting together the various refractor/color sets as well as the rainbows.

Contenders is strictly auto hits, while Chrome still has value all around; people will still want Chrome RCs and refractors. I understand though, that the higher-end of the spectrum might drop in value as a result.

chrome rc's and lower end refractors will be at an all time low this year, you won't be able to hardly give-away chrome rc's after a few weeks.

[HBMC]

correct me if I'm wrong, but Topps has been the ones with the unofficial SP list in their products since 2012 Finest...

It's not just SP'd, it's a severe SP. They've always had their "Group" system where Group A autos are really tough, but it's been really bad since 2012 (even 2011 to a degree). I pulled more Eddie Lacy's from Topps because I bet he was a Group B, I didn't pull anyone big out of Topps stuff last year. I didn't open much Panini, but I did Pull two Geno Smith (who would definitely be a Group A auto, regardless of his ability) autos from Panini in 1 box on contenders and a few packs of Prizm.

Sammy Watkins and Anthony Barr.

Zack Martin, Isaiah Crowell, Brandin Cooks (flashed some of his ability), Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, etc etc etc.

[HadWayTooMuch]

What is being missed is, nobody is pulling ANY of those names from Watkins to Bortles to Benjamin to Carr to Manziel to Clowney.

We all keep getting Taj Boyd after Taj Boyd after Taj Boyd. Then a bunch of other undrafted guys.

If you buy a case that delivers say 12 autos, shouldn't 1 of the 12 be a 1st round offensive player? Not saying Manziel or Watkins, but somebody? Or maybe a 2nd round skill player?

That's my point. People keep pulling undrafted and cut players one after another. The one guy pulled 2 Taj Boyd autos for his 2 autos in a $90 box. Really, 2 Taj Boyds? I haven't broken much this year due to the store, but I have pulled multiple Taj Boyds.

[Qwasian]

What is being missed is, nobody is pulling ANY of those names from Watkins to Bortles to Benjamin to Carr to Manziel to Clowney.

We all keep getting Taj Boyd after Taj Boyd after Taj Boyd. Then a bunch of other undrafted guys.

If you buy a case that delivers say 12 autos, shouldn't 1 of the 12 be a 1st round offensive player? Not saying Manziel or Watkins, but somebody? Or maybe a 2nd round skill player?

That's my point. People keep pulling undrafted and cut players one after another. The one guy pulled 2 Taj Boyd autos for his 2 autos in a $90 box. Really, 2 Taj Boyds? I haven't broken much this year due to the store, but I have pulled multiple Taj Boyds.


and don't forget michael sam....... it has been multiple boyd's and sam's to go around for almost every case.

in the other thread a guy broke 15 cases of chrome and no top tier players/big cards.

[blevins26]

It seems like 2011 was the year Topps started to SP the top guys & up the runs of the scrubs. However, Chrome that year was pretty under-produced so it covered up the fact that other sets like Inception were watery.

With Luck & RGIII in 2012, they took the supreme liberty to run the presses full steam ahead. Even with a weak 2013 class, there was no looking back. 2014 is more of the same.

With so many Panini haters out there, one thing I will say is they seem to have sets with more balance between individual player print runs.

As I understand it, the NFLPA makes the card companies produce all these rookie-loaded products? If that's true, it sure would be nice if they made them produce the same amount of each guy. If the idea is that pushing the rookies increases fan involvement/dollars spent then it seems like the NFLPA would realize that 1000s of Taj Boyd autos aren't impacting ticket sales, jersey sales, etc.

[k13]

I was thinking about buying a box or two of this but man that tough to hit anything good??

So used to having rookies having equal production not this sp stuff..oh well I guess the boxes are cheap...

Unreal how cheap non auto base is...cheaper than toilet paper.

[blevins26]

I was thinking about buying a box or two of this but man that tough to hit anything good??

So used to having rookies having equal production not this sp stuff..oh well I guess the boxes are cheap...

Unreal how cheap non auto base is...cheaper than toilet paper.

Makes sense, toilet paper can be used for something. Every try wiping with 2011 Rookies & Stars?

[purejd86p]

I think this is the same story we hear every year. Rookies underperforming, I pulled crap, and am complaining about it.

Case in point, 2011, how many Kaepernicks were pulled and people up in arms saying "wow, I got a #@#@#@#@ing Kaepernick" only for a mere season later that his Contenders is over $200 in BV (I believe at one time it was over $600).

Its too early to judge how "crappy" a rookie class is at least well into their playing careers (3-4 years).

BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HBMC]

BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

While I agree with the sentiment given in is post, it's worse than usual this year, there's a lot of guys that are no-hopers as the main hit in a box, the prices aren't really coming down and the cards aren't selling for much. Topps is digging their own grave with their substandard products and terrible overproduction. Finest is gross and Chrome looks like it will be too. I'm sure Platinum and the rest won't be any different.

[NorwayAllDay]

It is harder to pull bigger named Autos because 40 players now attend the rookie premier instead of 35. Its hard to pick 40 good players who will have value in the hobby before their rookie season starts, so guys like taj boyd end up being the box hit at times. The way to fix this would be to lower the number of invites to the rookie premier and keep out guys that are not a sure thing to make a team.

[MeetJSquared]

It is harder to pull bigger named Autos because 40 players now attend the rookie premier instead of 35. Its hard to pick 40 good players who will have value in the hobby before their rookie season starts, so guys like taj boyd end up being the box hit at times. The way to fix this would be to lower the number of invites to the rookie premier and keep out guys that are not a sure thing to make a team.

Even then, the problem with the huge Chrome checklist is there's even more guys that have no business being in the set (UDFA), while some bigger names (I think Khalil Mack was mentioned) aren't in it.

[storm]

Doubt they cost that much more just topps being a bitch.

There's no sp's like that in basketball or hockey just baseball and football.....Topps. ...yet people love them...

The top guys do get more to sign. Back in 2011 I had to have something replaced from leaf and talked with Brian on the phone. At the time the metal stuff went out for signing, Gabbert was the rumored top pick. He was getting 40 per card while the next level guys were 20 and below. Its as much about greedy agents as it is greedy card companies.