Why are prices so low this year?

[jubei777]

With the recent release of National Treasures, it got me thinking in retrospect about this past season of Panini basketball cards. The products themselves had their ups and downs but just looking at the average value of the rookie autos, they're at least 25% lower than what in my opinion should be. Is this indicative of a poor rookie class, lack of respect for Panini products, a byproduct of the economy, etc? Anyway, just wanted to throw this out there since it's been bugging me for a bit. thx

[coltsfan23]

Though I think that Panini has done a remarkable job in the past year, especially considering they have just entered the hobby, I think it might take a few years for the prices to adjust accordingly. However, I think the price decreases are mainly happening because of the continuation of overproduction. The focus should be towards creating unique products and unique opportunities the hobby has yet to see or has seen little of. Time and time again, we're seeing all companies, not just Panini, use lots of regular game used cards, the serial number usage is to the point that it really doesn't affect prices as much it as used to, and even the nicer patches & logomans are getting used more and more often. The novelty has started to wear off, thus reflecting that in the prices.

[jubei777]

If that's true, then it's going to stop a lot of collectors from cracking wax and just wait for singles to pop up. I know a lit of people already do this but when the only hit that will cover the cost of your box is a Kobe auto, you're going to be in trouble. I stopped cracking wax big time this year when a Tyreke, Curry, or Jennings auto rc wouldn't cover the cost of the wax. I just know that my LCS for the upcoming year will be scaling back on buying cases due to the lack of demand.

[bjtheman1]

I too have almost came to a stop busting boxes. Although I do like Panini something about their products just don't interest me much.

[alexlazarevich]

I like Panini's product. Elite: colored die-cut cards with auto's and low S/N's are way cool. Panini high-end stuff is killer too, NT is just amazing looking, especially the base RC Patch Autos. (#201-238) Even their low end "Panini" release was cool with me. Big checklist that goes deep into each teams roster. I also like UD, Black is so bada**, those cards are just off the top cool looking, probably some of my favorite designs with the silver autographs. I like Topps too, their bowman (in all sports) releases are just so freaking cool, I mean who doesn't want a colored Chrome Auto with a low S/N of some prospect.

My point is, lots of cards today are totally bad a** compared to cards just 10 years ago, much less the cards I first saw when I was a kid in the 80's. These companies are innovating. We are spoiled with good product. It's not all good, sure, but to say it's bad product, I don't believe that's true. Just pull out a box of 1986 Topps baseball...

Cost of new unopened product is high. That would be my only complaint about these cards today. If all the card companies marked down the price of their new product by half, that would make the "market value" (ebay-COMC-etc.) be more inline with cost of unopened product.

But why should these companies lower prices? A lot of us are buying unopened product anyway. We bust open product simply to sell (flip) them as fast as we can, and rarely do we make back cost. And then we complain about cost being too high. I do the same thing.

I think, what the market needs, is more true collectors, people who just buy cards because they want them in their closet so they can look at them every weekend and brag to their neighbors how they have more Shaq cards then their neighbors do. The more people there are like that the better off we will all be, I think.

I'm pretty sure there are industry leaders who are trying to do just that, get more kids into it in the hope that brings back the LCS and gets more true collectors into the hobby. I don't know any details about it, would like to hear from someone who does...

[kajshack]

When you release a new product every other week with virtually the same auto checklist, it's going to be tough to sustain value.

[wcbraun]

When you release a new product every other week with virtually the same auto checklist, it's going to be tough to sustain value.


I absolutely agree with this statement. It seems like they are releasing new products just because they can. They released Prestige first and then about a month later, they released 5 products in a 6 week span. You can't sustain a market without some time to build it up.

Also, just like their football products, almost everything seems to look the same. That's why I stopped buying their stuff for now. I was pulling some awesome looking stuff and when I looked at what it was selling for, it seemed like everything was between 5 and 30 dollars. So I just started saving all my hits and stopped buying the product.

Several of their products I love. I thought Certified was great. I like how you got at least one patch in every box because I love patches. I was shocked at how low stuff from Contenders sold for but I liked the look. Absolute was OK even though several of the subsets were retreads. I liked Crown Royale simply because several of the subsets were new fresh designs. NT looks great but it is high-end so it should look great.

Timeless Treasures and especially Court Kings was garbage. Alot of the other stuff like Studio was just low-end fill ins that seemed to me were released just so they could get a new product out there.

Other reasons for the problems are obviously the economy but also there are just so many people trying to rip and flip immediately as soon as a product is released, that the market just can't sustain high prices.

[tikitomoka]

Oodles of rookie autos = driving those prices into the ground... Terrible designs early on, similar box values and hit ratios, and the exact same player selection = driving wax busting into the ground. No other year have you been consistently able to pick up autos of ROY for 30 bucks a pop until this year because he has what seems like 500 autos per product (that might actually be an accurate number). And also, no other year have you been able to pick up new Kobe autos for $80-$100 a pop... Simply put, panini has driven the values of just about everything into the ground with overproduction (watch out Pippen autos and logomen, they're coming for you next ;))

[jubei777]

After reading everyones feedback, I agree that Panini threw out a ton of product this past year. Panini should take a page from Topps in the sense that one product per month (max) would be the way to go while limiting the "case hits" which have flooded the market. I think they should go with a new design fir each one of their sports brands (football, basketball, and now hockey) with more on card autos even if that means more redemptions. Anyway, despite what eBay prices dictate, I'm more apt to hold onto my "hits" than just give them away.

[bjtheman1]

Simply put, panini has driven the values of just about everything into the ground with overproduction (watch out Pippen autos and logomen, they're coming for you next ;))


Very true, include Dirk Auto's as well. I've been watching past sales and even Pippen autos now can be had for around $110-125 some even cheaper! :(

[coltsfan23]

Add Chris Mullin to that list, his nice Autographs used to go pretty high.

[tikitomoka]

Alright since we're building a list, thank god Barkley hasn't been actually put in a product yet haha

[jubei777]

Alright since we're building a list, thank god Barkley hasn't been actually put in a product yet haha

he'll be in the next Panini HOF set. I think his autos are /49.

[bjtheman1]

he'll be in the next Panini HOF set. I think his autos are /49.

No, I spoke with Panini and they stated he wasn't signing.

[jbstrojan]

I think a big part of it has to do with the fact that Panini doesn't have the rights to all, or even most of the athletes in the NBA. No autos of Lebron, Wade, Durant, Shaq, etc... hurt a lot.