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View Full Version : Number of Boxes/Cases of NT Made - Odds Calculation

esaslo
08-13-2010, 02:04 PM
Hi Guys,

Since we've all be discussing value on unopened NT boxes/cases, I thought it would be interesting to attempt to calculate the number of boxes produced.

With most products it's easy, as the odds calculations for each insert type are on the box; hence, you multiply through and you have an approximate run.

With NT, the only constant is four (4) base cards in each 12 card box.

These base cards come in /99, /25, /10 and /1 varieties. The only difference in these parallels, as most people know, is the color of the foil -- the patch and auto varieties aren't considered 'base'. We hence have a total issuance of /135 for each base card in the set; there are 238 base cards.

(All calculations are approximate)

238 x 140 = 33,320 Total Base Cards + Parallels
33,320 / 4 = 8,330 Total Number of Boxes Produced
8,330 / 4 = 2,083 Cases Produced

Someone could check this against the RAP production run, as they're 1 per box.

By comparison 2009-2010 UD Exquisite Basketball has 42 Base, /200 each total; 1 per box = 8400 Boxes. So, the SAME production run.

By this comparison, I put the better value on NT. Any thoughts?
bballcardheaven
08-13-2010, 02:09 PM
Eh, I'd say it would be tough to calculate this as like UD did I am sure Panini holds back a lot of base and other cards to use as replacements.
UltimateDeron
08-13-2010, 02:10 PM
I was wondering that as well. I was actually wondering the probability of pulling what crazymj pulled in back to back cases. He pulled both National Treasure Logoman auto 1/1s of my two PC guys (Deron Williams and Eric Gordon) in two different cases in back to back group break (group break 5 and 6). With all the cases that are being broken the odds of pulling those two cards must be like 1 in X,000,000 (doesn't make sense, I know...lol). Anyways, I thought there were more like 4,000 cases.
esaslo
08-13-2010, 02:24 PM
Eh, I'd say it would be tough to calculate this as like UD did I am sure Panini holds back a lot of base and other cards to use as replacements.

I don't disagree at all. When I did the calculation I did it as 140 instead of 135, accounting for an additional 5 base per card and the associated boxes. In reality, what we do know is that that number is the apparently maximum. More likely, it's closer to 2000 cases. (due to the /5 above drawn across the boxes; i.e., 5 x 238 /4 / 4).

The main point here was even at the maximum it's still comparable with Exquisite in run as per cases.
oshmeehan
08-13-2010, 03:50 PM
What about the All-NBA and NBA Greatest inserts that are #'d out of 25?? Not sure how many are in each set, but those take place of one of the 4 base cards per box.

Also some boxes don't have the Rookie Auto Patch while I've seen others that have 2 in them.
patchgenie
08-13-2010, 04:35 PM
i've noticed some breaks without a RAP in one of the boxes and others with 2 in the box
boombaby_rm31
08-13-2010, 06:05 PM
the silver base cards /10 are 1 per case
crazymj
08-13-2010, 06:14 PM
I was wondering that as well. I was actually wondering the probability of pulling what crazymj pulled in back to back cases. He pulled both National Treasure Logoman auto 1/1s of my two PC guys (Deron Williams and Eric Gordon) in two different cases in back to back group break (group break 5 and 6). With all the cases that are being broken the odds of pulling those two cards must be like 1 in X,000,000 (doesn't make sense, I know...lol). Anyways, I thought there were more like 4,000 cases.

Hehe lucky u that i pulled them and not some guys in phillipines. Speaking of phillipines, are the famous exquisite case breakers not breaking any cases of national treasures? I know they bought some of the junker panini products, can't see them skipping on this product.
crazymj
08-13-2010, 06:15 PM
the silver base cards /10 are 1 per case

I'm pretty sure i have found 2 per box before. Maybe #/5 base are 1 per case.
patchgenie
08-13-2010, 06:41 PM
Hehe lucky u that i pulled them and not some guys in phillipines. Speaking of phillipines, are the famous exquisite case breakers not breaking any cases of national treasures? I know they bought some of the junker panini products, can't see them skipping on this product.

what do those guys do for a living?