LoL @ anyone seriously even trying to forecast anything half a year away, even more LoL @ anyone thinking player prices - especially Wander - will be rocketing anywhere remotely close to the moon.

The only way to buy into a $250 summer rip now is to be ripped now.

Yeah, and don't forget about your lost opportunity costs - who would be crazy enough to give someone $3000 for a case of topps chrome 6 months before it is released?

You are probably better off putting that money in crypto and paying for a case with your profitz.

[QUOTE=brios8;17868059]

oh well, I absolutely see Wander Franco rookies for sure being $25 grading them at $35-50 and being able to sell for $150, and possibly the same for Witt/Jrod

Thats if they get to the Vladdy-Tatis-Acuna-Soto level.. Wander has already been labelled as in that level

Robert-Bichette were never placed at that level, and they did collapse in part because of bad timing-- Robert being injured/Bichette with Vladdy stealing all the attention. these two players could be good buys[/QUOTE]

There are 12,500 PSA 10 base Roberts and 8800 Acuna’s. It wouldn’t surprise me if there were still a number of Roberts in the queue to be graded.

I agree that Wander is a better prospect than Robert or Bichette but he wasn’t close to Acuna/Soto/Tatis/Vladdy with the bat last year. If he matches their output and hobby demand then he should still have lower card prices due to pop report. Acuna base PSA 10s are going for $140 to $150. With 50% more base cards it seems $100 would be a reasonable amount for a Wander base PSA 10 if he hits Acuna’s demand.

Of course Mac Jones has Donruss base going for thousands so there may be an opportunity to offload Wander base at inflated prices. But that seems dangerous given the seemingly limited demand for base cards.

I do think Bichette and Robert are buys btw. Just bought Robert refractor but it looks like prices for refractors are on the rise again.

Yeah, Topps Chrome is always a loser checklist. Bloated auto checklist makes rips a no go. Singles for a decade for sure.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;17868231]Don't forget that you are only going to pull a Wander every 3-4 boxes - so it'll cost you $750-1000 (at your $250/box rate) to pull a base wander if you are going to rip at that price.

You are also gambling on topps checklist shenanigans. What happens if they dilute the auto checklist with 75 relief pitchers and Wander is a redemption? Case production is double or triple last year?

You are taking a huge risk buying this far out.

Ask the 2021 topps chrome pre-order moon boyz - hobby boxes started at $300 and now you can find them for $125.

And no, it's not because of the weak rookie checklist - people knew exactly what you were getting when they came out at $300/box.[/QUOTE]

Sure I know, im just saying that getting Base cards of Wander Franco-Witt-Jrod would make it worth it.

2019 Topps Chrome Baseball Box is $800 with Tatis-Vladdy

so why cant 2022 be worth $750 if Franco-Witt-Jrod can be pulled

Of course 2020-2021 was not a good buy with no real good rookies... and then of course without being able to grade.. 2022 has a Generational talent Rookie type with 2 other potential ones and grading will be back :)

I wonder what the 2021 print run increased to. Granted Wander/Witt/Julio could be an incredible class but with base cards so devalued I wonder if hobby prices don’t start to fall to reasonable levels.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17868244]LoL @ anyone seriously even trying to forecast anything half a year away, even more LoL @ anyone thinking player prices - especially Wander - will be rocketing anywhere remotely close to the moon.

The only way to buy into a $250 summer rip now is to be ripped now.[/QUOTE]

:eek:those who can make good predictions can make good $$$
might not be for you

But being able to analyze and predict has always been smart:)

Witt and J-rod will not make topps chrome.

Topps is going to save them to sell 2023 products.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;17868257]Yeah, and don't forget about your lost opportunity costs - who would be crazy enough to give someone $3000 for a case of topps chrome 6 months before it is released?

You are probably better off putting that money in crypto and paying for a case with your profitz.[/QUOTE]

I also have money in Crypto :)
all about diversifying, and I see 2022 Topps chrome like a very VERY good potential ROI with not much risk.

Those called crazy many times are the ones that make good $$$
if 2022 is similar to 2019 which sells at $825/box why cant 2019 sell for $750.. I mean I dont need it to get to $750, that would be a SUPER BONUS, however at $250 I dont see much risk and the reward could be great

[QUOTE=IlliniBear;17868264]There are 12,500 PSA 10 base Roberts and 8800 Acuna’s. It wouldn’t surprise me if there were still a number of Roberts in the queue to be graded.

I agree that Wander is a better prospect than Robert or Bichette but he wasn’t close to Acuna/Soto/Tatis/Vladdy with the bat last year. If he matches their output and hobby demand then he should still have lower card prices due to pop report. Acuna base PSA 10s are going for $140 to $150. With 50% more base cards it seems $100 would be a reasonable amount for a Wander base PSA 10 if he hits Acuna’s demand.

Of course Mac Jones has Donruss base going for thousands so there may be an opportunity to offload Wander base at inflated prices. But that seems dangerous given the seemingly limited demand for base cards.

I do think Bichette and Robert are buys btw. Just bought Robert refractor but it looks like prices for refractors are on the rise again.[/QUOTE]

Wander did very well last season, if he had played longer he would have been the ROY.. He is the player everyone will be chasing this year, 5x more than chasing a Luis Robert-Bichette.. Read the forums, everyeone is VERY excited about Franco.. by doing that research it gives me confidence people will go big chasing Franco and hey im not even counting Witt-Jrod

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;17868280]Yeah, Topps Chrome is always a loser checklist. Bloated auto checklist makes rips a no go. Singles for a decade for sure.[/QUOTE]

My plan is to buy and sell sealed, maybe rip a few if I see good value.. the Checklist might be big, but collectors dont mind.. see 2018 Acuna-Ohtani
2019 Vladdy-Tatis.... now 2022 could be at that level Wander-Witt-Jrod

[QUOTE=IlliniBear;17868288]I wonder what the 2021 print run increased to. Granted Wander/Witt/Julio could be an incredible class but with base cards so devalued I wonder if hobby prices don’t start to fall to reasonable levels.[/QUOTE]

with Lower PSA grading levels, base intersted (could) go back up a bit.
but yeah lets see how much they print that could impact a bit of the Potential Sale value of the boxes, but still I do see almost any risk at $250/box

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;17868299]Witt and J-rod will not make topps chrome.

Topps is going to save them to sell 2023 products.[/QUOTE]

we will se :)

that would just be a BONUS if they do.. dont need them to make boxes go over $250

if they do or even one of them does then $$$$

and dont froget ADLEY RUTSCHMAN-RILEY GREENE... these could be Eloy Jimenez-Pete Alonso like extras

[QUOTE=brios8;17868290]:eek:those who can make good predictions can make good $$$
might not be for you

But being able to analyze and predict has always been smart:)[/QUOTE]

I don’t think it’s for you either, seems that you’re trying to have a go here in this thread

BUY SINGLES!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17868312]I don’t think it’s for you either, seems that you’re trying to have a go here in this thread[/QUOTE]

Oh its 100% for me.. been doing these for years :)

But its always good to see what other people think.. kind of like Surveys which help people understand all types of markets and see what people want, gives you a good feel to make better predictions

if I plan on buying 20 cases and see lots of people are hyped for the product I might bump it to 30.. or if someone makes some good points then I could also lower it to 15

But for now I love the potential of 2022 Topps Chrome.
everything has risk

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;17868314]BUY SINGLES!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

100% I will be doing that :)

Cases would be just to resell.. and maybe open a few..

Pre ordered one jumbo for $500 CAD ($389~ USD). I plan on buying a lot of this stuff to hold for a long time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I could already envision this product being infused with like 25+ different colored parallels of each player from the set. And on top of that, an additional 8-10 different colored auto parallels for certain other players. 😅

Buy singles!

Buy to collect!

Forget about "grading"!

[QUOTE=brios8;17868059]I think they have collapsed because it was based a lot on being able to grade them.. But popular Star players should be gradeable at a $35-50 level..
many people will want a Wander Franco Rookie and not everyone will be able to pay $2,000 for a Purple /299 PSA 10

oh well, I absolutely see Wander Franco rookies for sure being $25 grading them at $35-50 and being able to sell for $150, and possibly the same for Witt/Jrod

Thats if they get to the Vladdy-Tatis-Acuna-Soto level.. Wander has already been labelled as in that level

Robert-Bichette were never placed at that level, and they did collapse in part because of bad timing-- Robert being injured/Bichette with Vladdy stealing all the attention. these two players could be good buys[/QUOTE]

I saw a noticeable drop in raw prices when PSA shut down. The price bump to $25 for the lowest tier had no impact.

LouBob and Bo Bichette are seeing their prices tumble because all these cards that were supposed to be back at the all star break are flooding the market in the deepest part of the offseason slump. In six months when they are through the backlog prices will start to rise as you won't have 25 of each at 99¢ auction every day.

[QUOTE=brios8;17868000]Maybe.. but since I believe PSA will have a $35-$50 service I can see base cards getting close to the levels they were getting before the lockdown.. for example Acuna Topps chrome Base Rookie was selling for $100 and a PSA $250
now its maybe half of that, in part because those base cards cant be graded. but once they can be graded then Potential Superstar rookies like these 3 players could sell very well...

lets say they dont get to 2020 levels, but these prices seem very realistic


$35-$50 wander PSA 10s $175
$15-$25 Julio-Witt PSA 10s $115

Im counting on PSA having a $35-$50 level by JULY 2022[/QUOTE]

Your first price projections I thought were too high, but these are almost smack dab what I would project...for a settled price. They will be higher at release. I do think the one thing you're not accounting for is the diminished upside 2022 will have relative to 2018/19. The print run is much, much higher and that will keep prices down. At the recent rate of production increase I wouldn't be surprised if 2022 has twice as many cards compared to 2019. That not even counting any going away craziness from Topps.

For Wander, I would expect him to be maybe 65%-75% of whatever Acuna sells for. Maybe 100% to 150% for raw the first two weeks after release.

I've got an Acuna PSA 10 that I've been holding on to that I think was $100-$125 the last time I checked and I want it to be more like $200. That's the one where he's holding his helmet in his hand though. The other one looks to be more valuable at $200 for a PSA 10. That's in the middle of the offseason too. It will be $250 by opening day. That would make my Wander projection maybe $150 to $175 for a PSA 10, plus or minus his on field production, the market...etc.

[QUOTE=rwperu34;17868404]I saw a noticeable drop in raw prices when PSA shut down. The price bump to $25 for the lowest tier had no impact.

LouBob and Bo Bichette are seeing their prices tumble because all these cards that were supposed to be back at the all star break are flooding the market in the deepest part of the offseason slump. In six months when they are through the backlog prices will start to rise as you won't have 25 of each at 99¢ auction every day.



Your first price projections I thought were too high, but these are almost smack dab what I would project...for a settled price. They will be higher at release. I do think the one thing you're not accounting for is the diminished upside 2022 will have relative to 2018/19. The print run is much, much higher and that will keep prices down. At the recent rate of production increase I wouldn't be surprised if 2022 has twice as many cards compared to 2019. That not even counting any going away craziness from Topps.

For Wander, I would expect him to be maybe 65%-75% of whatever Acuna sells for. Maybe 100% to 150% for raw the first two weeks after release.

I've got an Acuna PSA 10 that I've been holding on to that I think was $100-$125 the last time I checked and I want it to be more like $200. That's the one where he's holding his helmet in his hand though. The other one looks to be more valuable at $200 for a PSA 10. That's in the middle of the offseason too. It will be $250 by opening day. That would make my Wander projection maybe $150 to $175 for a PSA 10, plus or minus his on field production, the market...etc.[/QUOTE]

I agree 100%

and check out how much a 2018 Topps Chrome Box sells for with Ohtani-Acuna and 2019 with Tatis-Vlad around $800

Thats why I dont understand why people say 2022 with Wander-Witt-Jrod cant be around that.. even with just Wander $250 is low in my opinion.. I believe in these 3 guys, and it seems like so do collectors in general.. 2021 Topps Chrome prices arent comparable at all lol, there wasnt a rookie to go for there :doh:

Sure production might be up.. but there will still only be 25 orange 50 gold 99 green 150 blue 299 purple and a few others. thats what one aims for while ripping.. the base dont matter much yet they can drastically reduce the cost of ripping if grading. if from 100,000 base they now made 125,000 it shouldnt matter much, since grading wont be $10, less people will take the risk to grade and therefore POP could very well be around the Acuna or Tatis amount

we will see in JULY.. buying this product is as lock as wax will get..
BEST BUY out there

your thread has brought out a lot of BOs doomsday posters

stop feeding them! :)

Here's how I'd rate the likelyhood of top prospects making their debut in time for Topps Chrome;

1) Torkelson-I think Detroit is the least likely to fart around with service clock given that they just ponied up 9 figures for Javy Baez.

2) Adley-I'm about 50/50 on this one. The Orioles are turrible. I could see them holding him back until June.

3) Witt-I'd say 75% chance or more he's in the minors long enough to headline Update. Then again I was surprised they started him at AA this year and it is quite obvious to anyone with at least one working eyeball that he's ready.

4) J-Rod-His highest level is AA. That tells me the Mariners are holding him back until June, 2022.

5) Nolan Gorman-He had 328 PA at AAA last year, but where would he play? Arenado and Goldy have the corners locked down. They're trying him at 2b, but it's not like Edman is some slouch at the keystone. The OF is solid with Carlson, Bader, and O'Neill. He probably needs an injury. Maybe the universal DH frees up some at bats for him?

Long Shots-Royce Lewis, Hunter Greene, Nick Pratto, Heliot Ramos, and Drew Waters have all been added to their team's 40 man roster. These guys not only need to get called up, they need to get a lot better to have an impact.

[QUOTE=rwperu34;17868421]Here's how I'd rate the likelyhood of top prospects making their debut in time for Topps Chrome;

1) Torkelson-I think Detroit is the least likely to fart around with service clock given that they just ponied up 9 figures for Javy Baez.

2) Adley-I'm about 50/50 on this one. The Orioles are turrible. I could see them holding him back until June.

3) Witt-I'd say 75% chance or more he's in the minors long enough to headline Update. Then again I was surprised they started him at AA this year and it is quite obvious to anyone with at least one working eyeball that he's ready.

4) J-Rod-His highest level is AA. That tells me the Mariners are holding him back until June, 2022.

5) Nolan Gorman-He had 328 PA at AAA last year, but where would he play? Arenado and Goldy have the corners locked down. They're trying him at 2b, but it's not like Edman is some slouch at the keystone. The OF is solid with Carlson, Bader, and O'Neill. He probably needs an injury. Maybe the universal DH frees up some at bats for him?

Long Shots-Royce Lewis, Hunter Greene, Nick Pratto, Heliot Ramos, and Drew Waters have all been added to their team's 40 man roster. These guys not only need to get called up, they need to get a lot better to have an impact.[/QUOTE]

Makes sense..
yet all these guys would be Bonus.. Wander Alone could sustain a $250 box price

ohh and you forgot Riley Greene :)

What is the reason to go for Chrome instead of Flagship at half the cost? I guess you for sure aren't getting any of those other guys in Flagship. It's twice as much for half the cards so if you've got more money than space that could be a benefit (I have neither, FWIW).

The next question is how much EV do you expect from Wander per case of Chrome? The reason I ask is it looks like 2021 Chrome is down to about $125 per box. I know there is no carrying RC, but there is a lot of young talent that could break out down the road. I would imagine that it's a lot tougher to go from $250-$500 than it is $125-$250. IMO you'd be trading the risk of a Wander flop vs the upside of any one of about 8 guys becoming all star caliber. If you're get four base and half a refractor per case the auto/paralell equity from Wander needs to add up to $1200 per case. I would think that's a tall ask. After that I'd definitely prefer the 2021 depth even if a Torkelson or Witt gets in.

Lastly, the best value from the 2022 products based on the prices I just checked....Heritage at under $100 per. Not quite the upside, but such a high floor. If I were going to crack anything (I'm not), that would be it. I can't imagine a world where sealed Chrome is exploding that Heritage isn't also doing well, but I can imagine a world where Wander flops but you still do ok with Heritage. [I]ETA: Of course if you're ripping Heritage is all sold before Wander even has a chance to flop! [/I]

[QUOTE=rwperu34;17868439]What is the reason to go for Chrome instead of Flagship at half the cost? I guess you for sure aren't getting any of those other guys in Flagship. It's twice as much for half the cards so if you've got more money than space that could be a benefit (I have neither, FWIW).

The next question is how much EV do you expect from Wander per case of Chrome? The reason I ask is it looks like 2021 Chrome is down to about $125 per box. I know there is no carrying RC, but there is a lot of young talent that could break out down the road. I would imagine that it's a lot tougher to go from $250-$500 than it is $125-$250. IMO you'd be trading the risk of a Wander flop vs the upside of any one of about 8 guys becoming all star caliber. If you're get four base and half a refractor per case the auto/paralell equity from Wander needs to add up to $1200 per case. I would think that's a tall ask. After that I'd definitely prefer the 2021 depth even if a Torkelson or Witt gets in.

Lastly, the best value from the 2022 products based on the prices I just checked....Heritage at under $100 per. Not quite the upside, but such a high floor. If I were going to crack anything (I'm not), that would be it. I can't imagine a world where sealed Chrome is exploding that Heritage isn't also doing well, but I can imagine a world where Wander flops but you still do ok with Heritage. [I]ETA: Of course if you're ripping Heritage is all sold before Wander even has a chance to flop! [/I][/QUOTE]

Chrome is currently more popular than flagship and currently there are no PSA $50 grading levels that essentially limit wax from going even higher in price. While in July there prob will which should get more interest in buying wax.
I also really like the chances for Witt to make it. And personally at $250 I think its as safe as it gets.
Those things + looking at 2018 and 2019 Topps chrome box prices I think$250
Is low..

Sure 2021 might be very low and a possible good buy, but I have no interest in those rookies that I would rather buy other stuff.

Anyways we will see what happens. Currently a Box is $250
I suspect by FEB prices will be closer to $300.. once his Flagship
Comes outandpeople still want more Wander cards this will
Be the product in everyones mind and get to $325-350..then we have the season start and Wander doing good/great $375-400. If there is potential for Witt to
Be in it its $500-600... wander being an a star level/potential Mvp $650-700
Julio Rodriguez happens to be in then $900

The negative...
A)Worst outcome no season stays at $225-250
B) Wander does horrible no witt/Julio on site $200

For me its JULY 2022
Lowest: $200
Highest: $900

Ill take those chances anyday at $250

Personally believe there is a 75% it gets released around $400/box

I like your thought process, but am personally unsure on how this will work out for you as $250 "feels" a little high for TC in a currently down market (yes, I know it's up overall from pre-pandemic pricing). All the while the company producing product has already increasing print run before a new potential golden boy debuted, and it was announced they're losing their license.

I do see what you are saying though and like the logic behind Wander being in this and the other guys being a potential bonus with high possible upside.

I remember having a similar conversation with a friend (not in the industry) this time of year in 2019 talking about the upcoming 2020 Bowman release. It was pre selling at $1900 for a hobby case in Dec 2019 and I was telling him if we pre ordered 10 cases for 19k that there was an uber hyped prospect named Jasson Dominguez and I felt it was at worst 50/50 he'd be in the product.

I said verbatim that if Jasson was in I wouldn't be surprised if prices doubled. If he was held out worst case scenario maybe prices would drop about 10% or so before release based on previous years boxes, trends, etc. Best case scenario if he was held out it still could trend up, maybe up to 20% or so. All of the numbers in btwn -10%-+20% were in play as well.

So by my spin zone math about 60ish% of the time the product releases at 1.5x-2x presale and 40ish% of the time worst case it drops about 10%. The EV in that situation was very high and needless to say the product released at right around 4k if I'm not mistaken per hobby case, so it did indeed 2x.

In this case you're coming off an unprecedented year where this exact same release dipped to 33% of presale price and all of the other factors listed above occurred as well (down market, overprinting, license loss, grading service level shutdowns etc. that weren't in play in Dec 2019). It definitely feels more risky in this climate than my 2020 Bowman synopsis at the time.

I'd personally suggest holding out at least a few more months and seeing market trends in the interim seeing as we have a bit til Spring training (if that does happen) and that would be the only thing imo to start swaying prices upward, if talk starts getting out one of the other prospects you mentioned may get an early call up.

I do hope you do well though whenever it is that you do decide to pull the trigger. That would mean 2022 would likely be good to most of us here