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-   -   The “maybe” official Houston Rockets 2024-2025 Thread (https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1598023)

mrmojorisin71 10-24-2024 05:05 PM

[QUOTE=sportzluvr1;19675366]Run through Sengun, surround him with slashers and shooters and watch the Rockets start rolling. Sengun only had 5 assists but provided his teammates with an additional 4-5 wide open shots that were clanked off the rim.[/QUOTE]

That’s this teams true issue. No real shooters, I’m assuming it’s why they drafted Reed. I was telling my buddy, they need like 2 Kyle korvers.

mrmojorisin71 10-27-2024 08:35 AM

This team does not look good. Still early, but hard to watch.

kipgen 10-27-2024 12:40 PM

[QUOTE=mrmojorisin71;19679314]This team does not look good. Still early, but hard to watch.[/QUOTE]

Jalen Green looks like he's taken a big step this year, that's good

The rest of the equation will be figuring out how we can get both Jalen and Sengun clicking on offense, once we do that we'll be cruising

My idea is to run Jabari as more of a rim defender and let Sengun play more on the other end, stop giving Jabari so many looks if he's clearly struggling to shoot well (and also can't drive to the rim)

We should try this lineup and see how it goes:

Jalen
FVV
Brooks
Sengun
Jabari

Swap out Brooks and Sengun with Cam and Amen as needed

mrmojorisin71 10-27-2024 12:52 PM

Man, I think the answer is simple, Green/Sengun high pick and roll, Sengun inside out.

mrmojorisin71 11-02-2024 04:29 PM

No Steph tonight, hopefully another dub. Jalen green is answering the bell early, sengun with a dud but the rest have been solid. Tari Eason proving to be a force off the bench. Things are looking up. Excited to see them play higher level teams like the Wolves, Nugs and Celtics.

jcardstore 11-05-2024 08:25 AM

Jalen Green right back to what he was. Sub 40% shooter from the field, absolutely no playmaking ability, and negative defense.

Despite that, still a nice win against the Knicks and Sengun looked good as usual

kipgen 11-05-2024 10:25 AM

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19691259]Jalen Green right back to what he was. Sub 40% shooter from the field, absolutely no playmaking ability, and [B]negative defense.[/B]

Despite that, still a nice win against the Knicks and Sengun looked good as usual[/QUOTE]

I don't think so. He was bad during the first three quarters offensively yes but he was still playing good D and also he made two clutch threes to ice the game.

Also in the end he was tied with Sengun for highest +/- at 14.

rhigh2390 11-05-2024 12:41 PM

[QUOTE=kipgen;19691423]I don't think so. He was bad during the first three quarters offensively yes but he was still playing good D and also he made two clutch threes to ice the game.

Also in the end he was tied with Sengun for highest +/- at 14.[/QUOTE]

:cry: at +/-

I'm rooting for the Rockets though. I had them as one of my surprise teams this year. I don't think they'll be consistent enough to get a good seed, but I think they'll have some games where they look really good and pull off some upsets on random nights.

jcardstore 11-05-2024 01:01 PM

[QUOTE=kipgen;19691423]I don't think so. He was bad during the first three quarters offensively yes but he was still playing good D and also he made two clutch threes to ice the game.

Also in the end he was tied with Sengun for highest +/- at 14.[/QUOTE]

I completely disagree. He's a lazy defender, loses focus, consistently loses his man. Not in good spots....

He's an elite athlete which gives him some above above average possessions as a point of attack defender, but as a team defender he is awful.

Here's a great play from yesterday. 2 minutes into the game we have a fast break. Jalen's defensive assignment is Mikal Bridges. So first, he misses a corner 3, is flat footed on the wing as Towns grabs the ball and then doesn't hustle back.

That leaves Mikal WIDE open on the break. Mikal bobbles the pass, OG recovers the ball. Jalen decides to just stand there at the ball and completely loses Mikal who slips into the corner for a wide open 3.

Seriously what the hell is he doing here?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cGPj1Rf.png[/img]

[url]https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/11/04/0022400161/35/3f2d1b52-39cc-b625-5481-6685d8f86471_1280x720.mp4[/url]

This is stuff that you see time and time again and it only took me 2 minutes into the first game for me to have a clip

here's another one, same game, 1st quarter.

The Rockets are clearly doing a handoff here since Mikal is just ghost screening. Tari knows exactly what to do and here is Jalen who forgets the handoff, gets out of position, and gives up another wide open 3

[url]https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/11/04/0022400161/125/3b4ee329-efc5-8368-2c03-687a8bacac5b_1280x720.mp4[/url]

kipgen 11-05-2024 01:15 PM

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19691609]I completely disagree. He's a lazy defender, loses focus, consistently loses his man. Not in good spots....

He's an elite athlete which gives him some above above average possessions as a point of attack defender, but as a team defender he is awful.

Here's a great play from yesterday. 2 minutes into the game we have a fast break. Jalen's defensive assignment is Mikal Bridges. So first, he misses a corner 3, is flat footed on the wing as Towns grabs the ball and then doesn't hustle back.

That leaves Mikal WIDE open on the break. Mikal bobbles the pass, OG recovers the ball. Jalen decides to just stand there at the ball and completely loses Mikal who slips into the corner for a wide open 3.

Seriously what the hell is he doing here?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cGPj1Rf.png[/img]

[url]https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/11/04/0022400161/35/3f2d1b52-39cc-b625-5481-6685d8f86471_1280x720.mp4[/url]

This is stuff that you see time and time again and it only took me 2 minutes into the first game for me to have a clip[/QUOTE]

Film is film, but the stats show that he was middle of the team for defense last game. Also his defensive rating this season is 112.1 and league average for shooting guards is 116.7, so objectively he is an above average defender on the season.

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/nRjUpWV.png[/IMG]

jcardstore 11-05-2024 01:28 PM

[QUOTE=kipgen;19691621]Film is film, but the stats show that he was middle of the team for defense last game. Also his defensive rating this season is 112.1 and league average for shooting guards is 116.7, so objectively he is an above average defender on the season.

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/nRjUpWV.png[/IMG][/QUOTE]

The film doesn't lie. 7 game sample of defensive rating (not even a good stat) is completely unreliable. Not to mention defensive rating was developed before play by play data existed so it's completely worthless even in large sample.

If you did want some small sample advanced stats here are some. The Rockets defense is 4.1pts worse per 100 when he is on the floor. That's 34th percentile. I feel so gross saying this but his DBPM and DEPM are both negative as well. DBPM is a trash stat and DEPM is pretty solid but small sample.

So no he is not objectively an above average defender because everything besides 7 games of DRtg is saying he's a below average defender and you could just watch the film.

kipgen 11-05-2024 02:16 PM

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19691633]The film doesn't lie. 7 game sample of defensive rating (not even a good stat) is completely unreliable. Not to mention defensive rating was developed before play by play data existed so it's completely worthless even in large sample.

If you did want some small sample advanced stats here are some. The Rockets defense is 4.1pts worse per 100 when he is on the floor. That's 34th percentile. I feel so gross saying this but his DBPM and DEPM are both negative as well. DBPM is a trash stat and DEPM is pretty solid but small sample.

So no he is not objectively an above average defender because everything besides 7 games of DRtg is saying he's a below average defender and you could just watch the film.[/QUOTE]

The +/- would imply that the rockets are simply better when he's on the floor. Also the claim that "film doesn't lie" doesn't work when you could also easily cherry pick plays that he doesn't make defensive errors on. Stats at least take the whole game into account rather than picking out individual moments at which he's not playing well.

jcardstore 11-05-2024 02:26 PM

[QUOTE=kipgen;19691698][B]The +/- would imply that the rockets are simply better when he's on the floor.[/B] Also the claim that "film doesn't lie" doesn't work when you could also easily cherry pick plays that he doesn't make defensive errors on. Stats at least take the whole game into account rather than picking out individual moments at which he's not playing well.[/QUOTE]

I don't think you understand what I was saying.

fungi2510 11-06-2024 08:29 AM

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19691708]I don't think you understand what I was saying.[/QUOTE]

That may be true, but I am guessing since there are quite a few different stats putting him in the low average range, he is just that. If he brings above average offense then he is going to make the team better. As long as he is not in the low 20s or whatever, his offense will wash it out. It seems like he might be picking it up as he is getting older, so there is something to be said for player growth. Especially with guys in their early 20s.

Antman5 11-06-2024 11:31 AM

Jcardstore supposedly is an advocate of statistics, now that you present one, he’ll flip the script and say trust the film. Lol.

Which one is it?

jcardstore 11-06-2024 12:08 PM

[QUOTE=Antman5;19692480]Jcardstore supposedly is an advocate of statistics, now that you present one, he’ll flip the script and say trust the film. Lol.

Which one is it?[/QUOTE]

Some stats are good. Some are bad.

Using a small sample of defensive rating (a terrible stat that doesn’t measure anything useful) is worthless

99% of people on blowout don’t know what they’re watching anyways and believe things that aren’t true so you need to supplement film with (good) stats.

I did use multiple stats to show Jalen is a below average defender AND I brought the film. Not only did I provide the film, I broke it down for everyone to see.

There’s no other way to interpret those 2 plays. Absolute terrible defensive play from Green. It took me less than 5 minutes to find 2 awful defensive possessions in the 1st quarter of the 1st game I pulled.

brothertona 11-06-2024 12:17 PM

Shocked at how few minutes Shepherd is getting early on

Antman5 11-06-2024 02:08 PM

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19692524]Some stats are good. Some are bad.

Using a small sample of defensive rating (a terrible stat that doesn’t measure anything useful) is worthless

99% of people on blowout don’t know what they’re watching anyways and believe things that aren’t true so you need to supplement film with (good) stats.

I did use multiple stats to show Jalen is a below average defender AND I brought the film. Not only did I provide the film, I broke it down for everyone to see.

There’s no other way to interpret those 2 plays. Absolute terrible defensive play from Green. It took me less than 5 minutes to find 2 awful defensive possessions in the 1st quarter of the 1st game I pulled.[/QUOTE]

Anyway, if you look at Greens numbers, he’s just a high volume, low efficient guy but food for thought, I was surprised to find this out there.


[url]https://x.com/don_dougan/status/1853664836044886258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853664836044886258%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=[/url]


He’s behind Jokic in most clutch points with a very respectable numbers of:

FG 50% overall, 37.5% on 3s and 85.7% from the FT line in those minutes.

a TS% of 64.0

mrmojorisin71 11-06-2024 05:32 PM

[QUOTE=rhigh2390;19691590]:cry: at +/-

I'm rooting for the Rockets though. I had them as one of my surprise teams this year. I don't think they'll be consistent enough to get a good seed, but I think they'll have some games where they look really good and pull off some upsets on random nights.[/QUOTE]

I think the progression here is an expectation of making the play in. I don’t have huge hopes for a top five seed, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they were assuming that Sengun and the supporting cast up to the level I think they can play..

mrmojorisin71 11-06-2024 05:34 PM

[QUOTE=brothertona;19692544]Shocked at how few minutes Shepherd is getting early on[/QUOTE]

He’s still trying to figure out when to shoot and win to pass and how to run the offense. I think he needs to be a catch and shoot guy with Sengun on the floor. He’s the only true deep threat.

mrmojorisin71 11-06-2024 05:40 PM

I also have some nice pickups I need to post. Color math Alpy Prizm red /299 and Pandora /150 amongst others.

mrmojorisin71 11-06-2024 06:12 PM

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sotexcollector 11-06-2024 07:01 PM

^ Nice Cam Whitmore cards....

2024 Obsidian Contra #/3 picked up for the collection. This card is very nice on hand.

[img]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54122221364_71352311dc_c.jpg[/img]

mrmojorisin71 11-06-2024 07:32 PM

[QUOTE=sotexcollector;19693005]^ Nice Cam Whitmore cards....

2024 Obsidian Contra #/3 picked up for the collection. This card is very nice on hand.

[img]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54122221364_71352311dc_c.jpg[/img][/QUOTE]

Obsidian has become my favorite product. The base cards alone are beautiful.


Nice JG! Hopefully he balls tonight.

kipgen 11-06-2024 10:28 PM

Nice game by Jalen tonight, here's some stuff of his I picked up recently

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/MCjnoMC.png[/IMG]

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/poGxfmK.png[/IMG]


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