[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;18234404]never pre-order wax.

especially from The New Era[/QUOTE]

Potentially bad advice.

It’s all about product and price-point.

Not all preorders will be winners but some absolutely will.

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18234436]Potentially bad advice.

It’s all about product and price-point.

Not all preorders will be winners but some absolutely will.[/QUOTE]

its possible, but unlikely, especially if one opens it

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18234436]Potentially bad advice.

It’s all about product and price-point.

Not all preorders will be winners but some absolutely will.[/QUOTE]

Correct.
This is the first time I convince myself to pre-order :)

I’m guessing they will be holding back for a Topps Update release for some of these players. Is there a Ben Baller chrome checklist?

[QUOTE=cj828282;18221626]Baller confirmed that Witt and JRod are SP or SSP in his Baller Chrome product. Usually mirrors TC proper. Take that for what it is worth.

[url]https://twitter.com/BENBALLER/status/1530000155100950529[/url][/QUOTE]
Found the. Twitter post, I wonder if he’s talking base set or autographs. As someone mentioned, it’s much easier to insert an SP Auto than having them part of the base set due to deadlines. The autos only have to be there by packaging time

No pump will save this steaming pile of crap. And to be clear, it’s only crap because the markup right now is 3x what it should be.

Consumer spending has another 2-3 months of leash. Good luck finding buyers for $400 boxes of Topps Chrome after this summer.

Heritage High Number 12 box cases are 1k

Obviously, no checklist but man that could be a fantastic deal if a few of the big boys find their way into the product?

I will absolutely never pre-order baseball cards for any reason.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18234672]No pump will save this steaming pile of crap. And to be clear, it’s only crap because the markup right now is 3x what it should be.

Consumer spending has another 2-3 months of leash. Good luck finding buyers for $400 boxes of Topps Chrome after this summer.[/QUOTE]




agree. I really think this is going to be just a terrible over printed mess.


For those who got in early at a good price point: Good job.

For anyone who recently bought hobby/Jumbo: Good luck.



Can't wait to see case breaks on this train wreck in the making.

[QUOTE=NCWolf;18234690]Heritage High Number 12 box cases are 1k

Obviously, no checklist but man that could be a fantastic deal if a few of the big boys find their way into the product?[/QUOTE]

$90 a box and the sell sheet says includes all in-season rookie call-ups so seems like a no-brainer to me. It obviously won't have any guys that are being held for 2023, but anyone with a RC logo on their Topps Now cards should be in this.

[QUOTE=blackbears86;18234756]agree. I really think this is going to be just a terrible over printed mess.


For those who got in early at a good price point: Good job.

For anyone who recently bought hobby/Jumbo: Good luck.



Can't wait to see case breaks on this train wreck in the making.[/QUOTE]

Would not be surprised to see this plunge to levels far below initial pre-sale price by the time of release or shortly after

Once people see many boxes will have less than $40 in cards ie two damaged scrub reliever Autos, some basic refs and 1 aqua teal #'d /399 and some scratched up base cards with terrible collation

Topps QC has been terrible on chrome cards the last couple of years, makes paying insane pre-sale prices even more of a joke than the pump attempt

[QUOTE=PumpnDumpling;18234788][B]Would not be surprised to see this plunge to levels far below initial pre-sale price by the time of release or shortly after[/B]

Once people see many boxes will have less than $40 in cards ie two damaged scrub reliever Autos, some basic refs and 1 aqua teal #'d /399 and some scratched up base cards with terrible collation

Topps QC has been terrible on chrome cards the last couple of years, makes paying insane pre-sale prices even more of a joke than the pump attempt[/QUOTE]




I don't know if I'd go that far, (Topps could surprise us with the checklist, but who knows) but you could be right.



I'll be really curious to see wrapper odds when it pops.

I love buying the exact singles that I want (inside my budget) vs overpaying & hoping to not get butt rammed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=PumpnDumpling;18234788]Would not be surprised to see this plunge to levels far below initial pre-sale price by the time of release or shortly after

Once people see many boxes will have less than $40 in cards ie two damaged scrub reliever Autos, some basic refs and 1 aqua teal #'d /399 and some scratched up base cards with terrible collation

Topps QC has been terrible on chrome cards the last couple of years, makes paying insane pre-sale prices even more of a joke than the pump attempt[/QUOTE]

I agree that these could dip below the initial pre-sale price. People thought I was crazy for suggesting that you could get Bowman cheaper if you waited a month or two. "Bowman never goes down," they say. Well, when it's extraordinarily over-priced it does.

OP seems to get real quiet when the board's more respected posters chime in

(but congrats if you do wind up making a killing on this, and good luck if you're ripping this and didn't learn your lesson from last year's TC)

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;18234441]its possible, but unlikely, especially if one opens it[/QUOTE]

It’s very much possible.

Like I said before, it’s all about the product and price-point.

You’re right though, it’s less likely to do so when ripping than when holding/flipping sealed.

But you can still preorder and rip, and make out good. 2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 is a great example of that. People who preordered got into the product in the low $1000s. I’m sure many made out good from ripping their cases. And those who held sealed => A hobby box of it currently sells in the high $2000s to low $3000s range.

Obviously not equating 2022 TC Baseball to 2020 TC F1, only trying to show that it’s still possible to make out good by preordering modern wax. And despite not seeing 2020 TC F1 like returns, those who got in early on 2022 TC BB will do fine from a sealed standpoint. I don’t rip at current price points and never would encourage others to do so, unless they cover the initial cost by trimming down their position, etc. Even then, I’d recommend to just pick up singles.

And pre-pandemic wax prices won’t come back anytime soon (if ever). Baseball wax prices lagged behind basketball and football for too long, and finally started to the path of the former, pricing out many baseball collectors and/or infuriating them with significantly higher price-points. It sucks but the hobby of today is not like the past.

[QUOTE=jduds;18234768]$90 a box and the sell sheet says includes all in-season rookie call-ups so seems like a no-brainer to me. It obviously won't have any guys that are being held for 2023, but anyone with a RC logo on their Topps Now cards should be in this.[/QUOTE]

If the backs of the cards are like they were in regular Heritage its unbreakable/unsellable even for half of $90.

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18234957]It’s very much possible.

Like I said before, it’s all about the product and price-point.

You’re right though, it’s less likely to do so when ripping than when holding/flipping sealed.

But you can still preorder and rip, and make out good. 2020 Topps Chrome [B]Formula 1 is a great example of that. People who preordered got into the product in the low $1000s. I’m sure many made out good from ripping their cases. And those who held sealed => A hobby box of it currently sells in the high $2000s to low $3000s range.
[/B]
Obviously not equating 2022 TC Baseball to 2020 TC F1, only trying to show that it’s still possible to make out good by preordering modern wax. And despite not seeing 2020 TC F1 like returns, those who got in early on 2022 TC BB will do fine from a sealed standpoint. I don’t rip at current price points and never would encourage others to do so, unless they cover the initial cost by trimming down their position, etc. Even then, I’d recommend to just pick up singles.

And pre-pandemic wax prices won’t come back anytime soon (if ever). Baseball wax prices lagged behind basketball and football for too long, and finally started to the path of the former, pricing out many baseball collectors and/or infuriating them with significantly higher price-points. It sucks but the hobby of today is not like the past.[/QUOTE]





You make a good point here, but let's be honest: Topps chrome racing was a major unicorn: relatively unknown, new and shiny to racing, all the sudden the "hot" thing to chase.

It's hard to equate that to established topps brands in baseball that have been out for years. The closest I could equate it to would be maybe Ben Baller chrome when that dropped.

I also agree, it's all about price point and where you get in.

The original post from December says $250 hobby. Hobby is currently $400 at Blowout. Which means market price if you were to sell yours is probably under $300. So what kind of margin are we really talking about for those who preordered?

Keep in mind as stated back in January that PSA would have a grading level lower than $150 by the release date. This has also beckne true and they currently have a $30 level and might have one at $15-25 by August.
This as stated before could make a few more people want to rip and grade top rookies.

But yes, lets first wait and see if the top rookies will be included.

Everyone welcomed to keep hating/spreading fear and making stuff up :)

[QUOTE=blackbears86;18234997]You make a good point here, but let's be honest: Topps chrome racing was a major unicorn: relatively unknown, new and shiny to racing, all the sudden the "hot" thing to chase.

It's hard to equate that to established topps brands in baseball that have been out for years. The closest I could equate it to would be maybe Ben Baller chrome when that dropped.

I also agree, it's all about price point and where you get in.[/QUOTE]

F1 is definitely an outlier but illustrates the kind of potential that a modern product can still have.

Obviously, we won't see that happen with 2022 TC (although the gap could certainly close if a 2022 rookie becomes one of the greatest players in MLB history).

I have personally made good gains on a number of products that I have preordered across various sports and non-sports (sealed plays though, not ripping and selling individually, the latter is a straight gamble with low likelihood of success).

TBP said to never pre-order wax, especially from the New Era, and I'm sharing that there's a lot of great opportunities out there. You just have to pick and choose the product, product year (because rookies are the drivers of products) and price-point.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18235059]The original post from December says $250 hobby. Hobby is currently $400 at Blowout. Which means market price if you were to sell yours is probably under $300. So what kind of margin are we really talking about for those who preordered?[/QUOTE]

If, upon receipt, someone moved boxes at $325 per locally (or net) that they're into for $250 per, that's a 30% gain.

That's a fantastic return for such little work. Not to mention, many assets have declined since December 2021. You can take that money (initial cost + 30% gain minus capital gain taxes) and reinvest into other plays. For instance, if someone threw that into the stock market, they'd have an extra 30% (minus capital gains) to play with and the DJIA has dropped 10-15% since Dec 2021 (so they can pick up discounted shares too).

Although some will unload upon release, I'm sure many others will hold for a couple years. You don't want to sell a potential goldmine too early. Even with increased production, if a superstar were to emerge from the 2022 rookie class (and their RCs are in 2022 TC), then the product will be highly demanded and sealed wax prices will uptrend.

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18235276]If, upon receipt, someone moved boxes at $325 per locally (or net) that they're into for $250 per, that's a 30% gain.

That's a fantastic return for such little work. Not to mention, many assets have declined since December 2021. You can take that money (initial cost + 30% gain minus capital gain taxes) and reinvest into other plays. For instance, if someone threw that into the stock market, they'd have an extra 30% (minus capital gains) to play with and the DJIA has dropped 10-15% since Dec 2021 (so they can pick up discounted shares too).

Although some will unload upon release, I'm sure many others will hold for a couple years. You don't want to sell a potential goldmine too early. Even with increased production, if a superstar were to emerge from the 2022 rookie class (and their RCs are in 2022 TC), then the product will be highly demanded and sealed wax prices will uptrend.[/QUOTE]
The mistake you make is that thinking all that is necessary for product to go up is a superstar to emerge.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18235312]The mistake you make is that thinking all that is necessary for product to go up is a superstar to emerge.[/QUOTE]

If a product is already priced for the emergence of a superstar, then the emergence of a superstar isn't going to lift prices. All you have is downside, barring the unexpected emergence of a different superstar.

F1 prices was 95% because people (innumerable non-fans previously) realized how amazing Drive to Survive on Netflix was. Without this show F1 would be on clearance.

[QUOTE=Archimedes;18235551]If a product is already priced for the emergence of a superstar, then the emergence of a superstar isn't going to lift prices. All you have is downside, barring the unexpected emergence of a different superstar.[/QUOTE]

What if there are 3 superstars or possibly more?

Franco/Witt/Jrod