Are we in the early 90s again!
 

Tell me if I'm wrong, but it feels like card companies are pumping out as many cards as they can and as fast as they can. 10 years from now are all these rookies going for big bucks going to be worthless like cards from the early 90s?

I assume the rare variations will hold value, but base cards will lose most of their value?

man, i hope so!

I think there's a market for it right now but yea I think it will bubble and go down. Graded cards will keep their value better.

A thought that comes to me is that topps keeps increasing the prices of boxes meaning more people are turning just to buying single cards. When the bubble bursts cant wait to see prices go down again for products. 3 packs of heritage retail cost me like 50 CAD yesterday ridiculous!

There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer

[QUOTE=kabrune2;17078934]There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer[/QUOTE]

Probably hard to stay in if you invest an enormous amount and you end up losing big. Plus, how can kids get into cards when they can't even get them at retail stores anymore?

[QUOTE=kabrune2;17078934]There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer[/QUOTE]

I think you're wrong about A&G. It's been proven time and again that A&G scores oddball cards (most current is the Egg). But, there's many, many first cards of famous people and other sport athletes who have yet to be tapped into from prior A&G sets. If anything, I see A&G containing many hidden gems that collectors don't even realize exist.

yea, Ginter is gaining steam after being dormant for many years (IMO)

I feel like we get one of these threads a weeks at this point.....

[QUOTE=CxL;17079014]I feel like we get one of these threads a weeks at this point.....[/QUOTE]

one a week would be a dry spell lol

[QUOTE=dhcollecting;17078901]Tell me if I'm wrong, but it feels like card companies are pumping out as many cards as they can and as fast as they can. 10 years from now are all these rookies going for big bucks going to be worthless like cards from the early 90s?

I assume the rare variations will hold value, but base cards will lose most of their value?[/QUOTE]

the '90s pump popped from the strike- where would we be now if that never happened? Base cards losing most their value is absolutely nothing new and rare variations have also pretty much always held their value relative to the market.

[QUOTE=kabrune2;17078934]There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer[/QUOTE]

I think you are very wrong about sets like A&G and Heritage. Those are held up right now in price because of the set collectors. Those are set collector sets, not flipper sets. This is also why (except the rare chromes and autos) the prices on these sets don’t skyrocket with everything else.

That means they are more “bubble pop” proof than everything else because the collectors will still put together their sets every year, which again, is what holds these two specific products up.

Flagship will be fine too, there are how many collectors who have been putting together the flagship set every year? How many collectors are trying to put together all sets 1952-current? Those guys will still be buying flagship.

Everything else will be hit real hard when it does finally pop.

Baseball will also not be hit nearly as hard as basketball and football. The prices are still not as high in baseball, and the collector base is stronger than the flipper base in baseball.

hope so.

[QUOTE=smanzari;17079033]the '90s pump popped from the strike- where would we be now if that never happened? Base cards losing most their value is absolutely nothing new and rare variations have also pretty much always held their value relative to the market.[/QUOTE]

Ah, but see here we are now. Card print runs going up (still not to early 90s levels), prices soaring very similarly to the early 90s, and wait, what’s that...there’s a strong potential for a strike in 2022!

It is eerily similar to the early 90s right now in this hobby. Those of us who collected through both can see it.

There are differences that make me believe the crash won’t be as bad this time, but will still happen. The biggest of which is social media and the internet.

I loved collecting in the early 1990's. I would go to shows all over the place and have fun, like the American Legion or practically any Mall. Most of the people I knew back then had a sports card collection in some form. I really hope this resurgence in the "Hobby" will at least keep some of the new collectors/investors around for good.

[QUOTE=tedwilliamsfan;17079070]I loved collecting in the early 1990's. I would go to shows all over the place and have fun, like the American Legion or practically any Mall. Most of the people I knew back then had a sports card collection in some form. I really hope this resurgence in the "Hobby" will at least keep some of the new collectors/investors around for good.[/QUOTE]

It would be awesome! I miss that part so much. I am sick of trading online, I want to trade in person again. I want to sit and talk about the hobby again, not just how much someone made off this card, or who their going to make millions off next. I want to just have a live conversation about the hobby again. Even at the LCS, the only person I can actually talk about the hobby is the owner. All the other customers only really care about the money to be made. Very few actual clectors there. There are a couple, but they normally don’t hang out very long because the flippers annoy them.

I want the bubble to pop so I can buy more boxes! I don’t care too much about what the cards are worth, I prefer to trade and what’s it matter if I am trading a $20 card for a $20 card or a $500 card for a $500 card? It doesn’t. However, if prices go back to what they were even a year ago, then I can afford to open more boxes again, and now I get more cards.

When it does pop, the clectors will stay all that will go away is the flippers that we all can’t stand in the hobby anyways.

Yes live card shows are gonna be great once we can/are willing to go again post covid!

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079110]Yes live card shows are gonna be great once we can/are willing to go again post covid![/QUOTE]

Some places are already doing them. The issue I have heard of, but I haven’t been to one myself yet to see myself if it’s true, is so many basement dwelling neck beards are there, and social distancing is next to impossible because they will come right up on you and try to force you out of their way. Those same guys then throw hissy fits when they can’t convince the 20 year old kid with the PSA 9 TC Kobe refractor to trade it for his PSA 10 base Prizm Zion.

One guy was telling me there was one of these guys who was yelling and screaming in the middle of the show because he couldn’t afford these kids prices and how he should be allowed to force these new kids out of the show. He also got mad because no one would buy his hanger boxes and blaster from him at 3x retail.

Those are the guys who need to be shown the door in this hobby. Retail flippers way worse than Sneaker Bois.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079145]Some places are already doing them. The issue I have heard of, but I haven’t been to one myself yet to see myself if it’s true, is so many basement dwelling neck beards are there, and social distancing is next to impossible because they will come right up on you and try to force you out of their way. Those same guys then throw hissy fits when they can’t convince the 20 year old kid with the PSA 9 TC Kobe refractor to trade it for his PSA 10 base Prizm Zion.

One guy was telling me there was one of these guys who was yelling and screaming in the middle of the show because he couldn’t afford these kids prices and how he should be allowed to force these new kids out of the show. He also got mad because no one would buy his hanger boxes and blaster from him at 3x retail.

Those are the guys who need to be shown the door in this hobby. Retail flippers way worse than Sneaker Bois.[/QUOTE]

Jeeze I always have a good time at shows but yea the social distancing and stuff is why im still staying away for now.

+I never find anything I really need as my collection is eclectic at best lol. I remember walking around the national in 2019 and having people think i was joking when id inquire l0l.

But man miss that fun of just being there!

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079173]Jeeze I always have a good time at shows but yea the social distancing and stuff is why im still staying away for now.

+I never find anything I really need as my collection is eclectic at best lol. I remember walking around the national in 2019 and having people think i was joking when id inquire l0l.

But man miss that fun of just being there![/QUOTE]

Even if you can’t find anything you need, just being there was always worth going. Seeing some stuff that you never get to see, cards you know you could never afford, and talking to like minded people is such a good time.

My area will have their first show in 15 years in a couple weeks and I am hoping I can go. Whether it is safe or not will be my deciding factor, it’s a 45 minute drive, which isn’t bad, but I don’t want to get out there and then see no distancing, no masks, too many people etc. I hope I can go though!

Looking at all these cards online is one thing, that’s just an image. But when I get to actually hold and look at closely someone’s 1952 Mantle, that was so different than looking at pictures online. You get such a better appreciation for it at that point, and I know I will never afford one so seeing it in person is what I get!

[QUOTE=dhcollecting;17078901]Tell me if I'm wrong, but it feels like card companies are pumping out as many cards as they can and as fast as they can. 10 years from now are all these rookies going for big bucks going to be worthless like cards from the early 90s?

I assume the rare variations will hold value, but base cards will lose most of their value?[/QUOTE]

They're smarter this time around. Instead of making 5 million of the same card, they split that 5 million up into 1 million different set variations so everyone thinks everything is rare.

Just have to figure out which variations will be the popular ones and which people will put in dollar bins.

if the bubble popped id be able to afford some sick griffey refractors finally

card shows post covid assuming the hobby is still full steam ahead are gonna be crazy. that thought just occurred to me for the first time

[QUOTE=Triple B;17079208]They're smarter this time around. Instead of making 5 million of the same card, they split that 5 million up into 1 million different set variations so everyone thinks everything is rare.

Just have to figure out which variations will be the popular ones and which people will put in dollar bins.[/QUOTE]

I hope your right and Topps at least will have the memory of the horrible years they made less money, and how long it took to come back. That was also when they had Basketball and Football to help hold them up while they dealt with the consequences of what they did to themselves in baseball. They don’t have that this time around.

[QUOTE=actionbryan;17079209]if the bubble popped id be able to afford some sick griffey refractors finally[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=actionbryan;17079213]card shows post covid assuming the hobby is still full steam ahead are gonna be crazy. that thought just occurred to me for the first time[/QUOTE]

Cards like Griffey refractors are ones that I see being less impacted by bubble popping. Just like in the 90s, 50s and 60s cards didn’t drop much. Those cards were 30-40 years old at the time of popping and the guys who grew up watching them kept buying them. 90s Griffey cards are now 30 years old, and it’s guys who grew up watching him that are buying them. Exact same idea, so those cards should barely drop, maybe 25% would be my guess. We also don’t know how high they will go before the pop.

As far as shows go, many areas are throwing COVId to the wind and doing shows now. The good ones are limiting how many people can be in the show at a time, and there is a socially distanced line waiting to get in. When someone leaves, the next guy can go in. Mall shows are coming back too, and I haven’t seen a mall show in at least 25 years! That to me is a huge sign of the booming hobby. Now, IIRC, mall shows lasted about 6-7 years last time, so if we are just starting them now, then we probably have about 4-5 years until the decline.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079199]Even if you can’t find anything you need, just being there was always worth going. Seeing some stuff that you never get to see, cards you know you could never afford, and talking to like minded people is such a good time.

My area will have their first show in 15 years in a couple weeks and I am hoping I can go. Whether it is safe or not will be my deciding factor, it’s a 45 minute drive, which isn’t bad, but I don’t want to get out there and then see no distancing, no masks, too many people etc. I hope I can go though!

Looking at all these cards online is one thing, that’s just an image. But when I get to actually hold and look at closely someone’s 1952 Mantle, that was so different than looking at pictures online. You get such a better appreciation for it at that point, and I know I will never afford one so seeing it in person is what I get![/QUOTE]

so true! its always fun to pick up some cool items that just look good. Even if they are cheap online its no fun to do that pay 4$ shipping for the 2$ item.

And on the other hand not knowing if it will look as good to you in person on higher value items

You cant buy cards of any type anywhere.......its crazy. 2018 Topps Chrome Update Mega will be 1k by the end of the season easily. Zion rookie cards are bonkers.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

Ugh!!!

One day it's "we're in a bubble"

Next day it's "I'm priced out of the hobby"

Can we come to some consensus here?

[QUOTE=smanzari;17079033]the '90s pump popped from the strike- where would we be now if that never happened? Base cards losing most their value is absolutely nothing new and rare variations have also pretty much always held their value relative to the market.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, but don't worry. It's not like we have labor strife upcoming in the next year or so in the sport or anyt-

hey wait a second

Are we in the early 90s again!
 

[QUOTE=nowiamsad;17079300]One day it's "we're in a bubble"

Next day it's "I'm priced out of the hobby"

Can we come to some consensus here?[/QUOTE]


Aren’t those two signs of consensus???


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[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17078931]I think there's a market for it right now but yea I think it will bubble and go down. [B]Graded cards will keep their value better.[/B]

A thought that comes to me is that topps keeps increasing the prices of boxes meaning more people are turning just to buying single cards. When the bubble bursts cant wait to see prices go down again for products. 3 packs of heritage retail cost me like 50 CAD yesterday ridiculous![/QUOTE]

This is probably the most inccorect statment in this entire thread imo. Grading companies will sink along with the rest if we really are on a bubble that bursts. TPG's currently cant catch an altered card if there life depended on it and at some point everybody will come to that conclusion if they arent stilll able to line there pockets through those companies. The hobby's upswing right now is the only thing keeping tpg's in business with there current problems. The majority of the people supporting tpg's right now will turn on them in second when they cant get a 3-5x return on investment in every card they submit. Money is blinding.

[QUOTE=nowiamsad;17079300]One day it's "we're in a bubble"

Next day it's "I'm priced out of the hobby"

Can we come to some consensus here?[/QUOTE]

Those are extremely similiar statments.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079334]This is probably the most inccorect statment in this entire thread imo. Grading companies will sink along with the rest if we really are on a bubble that bursts. TPG's currently cant catch an altered card if there life depended on it and at some point everybody will come to that conclusion if they arent stilll able to line there pockets through those companies. The hobby's upswing right now is the only thing keeping tpg's in business with there current problems. The majority of the people supporting tpg's right now will turn on them in second when they cant get a 3-5x return on investment in every card they submit. Money is blinding.[/QUOTE]

An interesting take on what I said, theres some truth to your response but all I was attempting to say was that with the overprinting that Graded cards such as rookies and stuff will still maintain better value than just the out of the box base that people are selling for ridiculous prices.

I do agree that they will also drop but I think they will recover better, just look at the graded cards from the junk era much higher prices

You’re wrong.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079254]so true! its always fun to pick up some cool items that just look good. Even if they are cheap online its no fun to do that pay 4$ shipping for the 2$ item.

And on the other hand not knowing if it will look as good to you in person on higher value items[/QUOTE]

True. It’s also why I like the LCS better. Prices may be a little higher, but no shipping, no waiting and I get to see it before I buy. It’s worth the extra 5% to have that.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079346]True. It’s also why I like the LCS better. Prices may be a little higher, but no shipping, no waiting and I get to see it before I buy. It’s worth the extra 5% to have that.[/QUOTE]

My old LCS closed a few years ago, so now I have no where to go except shows and online. Closed due to fire not lack of business I might add! Then again due to that my wallets always heavier at shows l0l

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17078931]I think there's a market for it right now but yea I think it will bubble and go down. Graded cards will keep their value better.

A thought that comes to me is that topps keeps increasing the prices of boxes meaning more people are turning just to buying single cards. When the bubble bursts cant wait to see prices go down again for products. 3 packs of heritage retail cost me like 50 CAD yesterday ridiculous![/QUOTE]


I think this is more likely true for base cards in series that are hard to gem

But for things like chrome and SP / #d cards my bet is that raw retains more value given graded offerings seem to have become unhitched from traditional raw -> graded ratios


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I hope so! Will buy up everything that’s awesome, that I can’t afford now ...... and when the storm passes, awesome is still, and always will be .... awesome :cool:

[QUOTE=palmetto7;17079257]You cant buy cards of any type anywhere.......its crazy. 2018 Topps Chrome Update Mega will be 1k by the end of the season easily. Zion rookie cards are bonkers.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Maybe I’m lucky, but my LCS has wax, not much basketball or football, but baseball is pretty available. Then again though, he must have a magic connection as he still has top loaders and penny sleeves, and not even at markup! Actually he gave them to me free yesterday because I bought some boxes from him for UNDER COMP. I believe I am the rarity though.

As far as Zion prices, you can still get a lot of good deals, stay away from Prizm and Optic and deals are abound.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;17079262]Ugh!!![/QUOTE]

At least this one, the conversation has been able to be taken in a direction different from normal bubble talk!

[QUOTE=nowiamsad;17079300]One day it's "we're in a bubble"

Next day it's "I'm priced out of the hobby"

Can we come to some consensus here?[/QUOTE]

The bubble is why most say they can’t afford the hobby. Why is this hard to understand?

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079334]This is probably the most inccorect statment in this entire thread imo. Grading companies will sink along with the rest if we really are on a bubble that bursts. TPG's currently cant catch an altered card if there life depended on it and at some point everybody will come to that conclusion if they arent stilll able to line there pockets through those companies. The hobby's upswing right now is the only thing keeping tpg's in business with there current problems. The majority of the people supporting tpg's right now will turn on them in second when they cant get a 3-5x return on investment in every card they submit. Money is blinding.[/QUOTE]

While you speak a lot of truths, I have to disagree.

**Disclaimer** As of today, I own exactly 1 graded card, and I bought it yesterday because the LCS gave me a good deal.

I think TPG will stay in the hobby. Even with all the issues they are having right now, when you look at it, it is maybe 1% of their graded cards that are trimmed/fake/altered. Is that too much? To collectors, yes. Is it terrible? No. If you look at a lot of other companies, a 1% failure rate is actually pretty good. It’s why actuarys exist. When a company sees it will cost us $1MM to fix the problem and make that 1% .1%, but the cost of keeping the failures out there is under then it’s acceptable.

Also, a lot of the other communities I belong to beside BO, don’t actually keep up with all the altered and fake cards that have been graded. They still trust PSA because it is such a low amount. To most this is acceptable, which means they will still be popular.

It also does not look like much is coming from the FBI investigation, so when they can say that they have been found not legally responsible by the FBI, then people will trust them even more.

If nothing else, the protection that the cases provide is enough for people to buy them.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079173]Jeeze I always have a good time at shows but yea the social distancing and stuff is why im still staying away for now.

+I never find anything I really need as my collection is eclectic at best lol. I remember walking around the national in 2019 and having people think i was joking when id inquire l0l.

But man miss that fun of just being there![/QUOTE] Indoor gatherings are severely limited in Canada so unless you live in a province with a low case count then shows won't be happening until fall of 2021.

As for the guys who talk about freedom and rights, do you have the right to unknowingly spread the virus to other people who didn't ask to be in your space ie the baseball card show or memorabilia expo?

This is why I am against shows being open unless the case counts are low in you region.

I can't recall any shows ever having much space, except when the hobby was retrenching in the late 90's.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079403]Maybe I’m lucky, but my LCS has wax, not much basketball or football, but baseball is pretty available. Then again though, he must have a magic connection as he still has top loaders and penny sleeves, and not even at markup! Actually he gave them to me free yesterday because I bought some boxes from him for UNDER COMP. I believe I am the rarity though.

As far as Zion prices, you can still get a lot of good deals, stay away from Prizm and Optic and deals are abound.



At least this one, the conversation has been able to be taken in a direction different from normal bubble talk!



The bubble is why most say they can’t afford the hobby. Why is this hard to understand?



While you speak a lot of truths, I have to disagree.

**Disclaimer** As of today, I own exactly 1 graded card, and I bought it yesterday because the LCS gave me a good deal.

I think TPG will stay in the hobby. Even with all the issues they are having right now, when you look at it, it is maybe 1% of their graded cards that are trimmed/fake/altered. Is that too much? To collectors, yes. Is it terrible? No. If you look at a lot of other companies, a 1% failure rate is actually pretty good. It’s why actuarys exist. When a company sees it will cost us $1MM to fix the problem and make that 1% .1%, but the cost of keeping the failures out there is under then it’s acceptable.

Also, a lot of the other communities I belong to beside BO, don’t actually keep up with all the altered and fake cards that have been graded. They still trust PSA because it is such a low amount. To most this is acceptable, which means they will still be popular.

It also does not look like much is coming from the FBI investigation, so when they can say that they have been found not legally responsible by the FBI, then people will trust them even more.

If nothing else, the protection that the cases provide is enough for people to buy them.[/QUOTE]

Good post but now i really desire to know what your graded card is! :D

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079362]My old LCS closed a few years ago, so now I have no where to go except shows and online. Closed due to fire not lack of business I might add! Then again due to that my wallets always heavier at shows l0l[/QUOTE]

That stinks. Maybe this boom will bring one back for you.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079343]An interesting take on what I said, theres some truth to your response but all I was attempting to say was that with the overprinting that Graded cards such as rookies and stuff will still maintain better value than just the out of the box base that people are selling for ridiculous prices.

I do agree that they will also drop but I think they will recover better, just look at the graded cards from the junk era much higher prices[/QUOTE]

I see your point of view but i am off the opinion that everything graded in the past five to ten years at least of graded stuff will essentially drop to the point of being worth the same of a raw card if we see a market crash. PSA and bgs's opinions right now are as trustworthy as if i had my card graded by my neighborhoods local crackhead at the current moment. Thats not to say that those cards cant be cracked out and resubmitted to an improved more turstworthy psa or bgs or a diffrent tpg tha could take over and regain that worth though.

[QUOTE=Retired hobbist;17079405]Indoor gatherings are severely limited in Canada so unless you live in a province with a low case count then shows won't be happening until fall of 2021.

As for the guys who talk about freedom and rights, do you have the right to unknowingly spread the virus to other people who didn't ask to be in your space ie the baseball card show or memorabilia expo?

This is why I am against shows being open unless the case counts are low in you region.

I can't recall any shows ever having much space, except when the hobby was retrenching in the late 90's.[/QUOTE]

Please let’s not make this a political discussion. Yes COVID is horrible, yes we all have our opinions on it. Let’s please just leave it at that and talk about the shows that are happening, not whether we agree with or disagree with whatever laws and events are going on. We are civil right now, let’s keep it that way.

[QUOTE=Retired hobbist;17079405]Indoor gatherings are severely limited in Canada so unless you live in a province with a low case count then shows won't be happening until fall of 2021.

As for the guys who talk about freedom and rights, do you have the right to unknowingly spread the virus to other people who didn't ask to be in your space ie the baseball card show or memorabilia expo?

This is why I am against shows being open unless the case counts are low in you region.

I can't recall any shows ever having much space, except when the hobby was retrenching in the late 90's.[/QUOTE]

All true, however due to work I am in the USA so I might attempt to attend a show this summer once I have been vacinated!

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079411]I see your point of view but i am off the opinion that everything graded in the past five to ten years at least of graded stuff will essentially drop to the point of being worth the same of a raw card if we see a market crash. PSA and bgs's opinions right now are as trustworthy as if i had my card graded by my neighborhoods local crackhead at the current moment. Thats not to say that those cards cant be cracked out and resubmitted to an improved more turstworthy psa or bgs or a diffrent tpg tha could take over and regain that worth though.[/QUOTE]

You made me spit out my water with the crackhead line, pretty sure those already exist l0l and pretty sure PSA is more valued then them and trusted then the ones that float around!

While you speak a lot of truths, I have to disagree.

**Disclaimer** As of today, I own exactly 1 graded card, and I bought it yesterday because the LCS gave me a good deal.

I think TPG will stay in the hobby. Even with all the issues they are having right now, when you look at it, it is maybe 1% of their graded cards that are trimmed/fake/altered. Is that too much? To collectors, yes. Is it terrible? No. If you look at a lot of other companies, a 1% failure rate is actually pretty good. It’s why actuarys exist. When a company sees it will cost us $1MM to fix the problem and make that 1% .1%, but the cost of keeping the failures out there is under then it’s acceptable.

Also, a lot of the other communities I belong to beside BO, don’t actually keep up with all the altered and fake cards that have been graded. They still trust PSA because it is such a low amount. To most this is acceptable, which means they will still be popular.

It also does not look like much is coming from the FBI investigation, so when they can say that they have been found not legally responsible by the FBI, then people will trust them even more.

If nothing else, the protection that the cases provide is enough for people to buy them.[/QUOTE]

I would say that there number is higher than 1 percent at this point. Also comparing psa to other companies is a dangerous game because most other companies errors dont have the type of possible repercutions that psa's does. PSA's errors can cost people major money if they find out they have a psa card thats slabbed and altered and has already passed through multiple peoples hands since grading. God forbid a massive card comes back as altered after a million dollar sale. PSA's errors also take a lot longer to resolve than most others. If i need to get a psa card reslabbed due to there error it can take a month plus just to get it back when it is psas error to begin with. If a restraunt messes up my food i can get it changed in twenty mins, if my insurance company messes up a form i can get ahold of them and have it changed within a day or two at most. You cant look at just error rate. You need to take into account the consequences of said errors.

To your point of people buying the cards for protection. I can see that happening but its hard to see people consistently paying 25 dollars minimum for a case. Also at that point psa would no longer be a grading company it would be a case company. Im still suprised that a company hasnt come in with no grading but just a clean case with a nice looking label. People would pay a reasonable price for that i would think.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079418]You made me spit out my water with the crackhead line, pretty sure those already exist l0l and pretty sure PSA is more valued then them and trusted then the ones that float around![/QUOTE]

PSA's opinion is only worth a darn to anyone right now cause its making people money. If the market crashes there opinion will become worthless in a second.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079415]Please let’s not make this a political discussion. Yes COVID is horrible, yes we all have our opinions on it. Let’s please just leave it at that and talk about the shows that are happening, not whether we agree with or disagree with whatever laws and events are going on. [B]We are civil right now, let’s keep it that way.[/QUOTE]
[/B]

Agreed. I hate it when there is a good conversation going and it gets swooped away by a couple people wanting to argue non baseball/ baseball card stuff.

I just checked. My ‘83 Monte Carlo is not in the driveway and I can’t dunk a basketball anymore. I got excited for a minute but now I’m depressed.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079432]PSA's opinion is only worth a darn to anyone right now cause its making people money. If the market crashes there opinion will become worthless in a second.[/QUOTE]

I think many also like the encapsulation which would continue and you know the card is protected + they identify flaws and as another poster stated their rate is still very good compared to misses.

Also the set registry guys will still buy up stuff.

In your opinion if the market crashes would you see graded items rebounding quicker/ by a higher percentage or?

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079343]An interesting take on what I said, theres some truth to your response but all I was attempting to say was that with the overprinting that Graded cards such as rookies and stuff will still maintain better value than just the out of the box base that people are selling for ridiculous prices.

I do agree that they will also drop but I think they will recover better, just look at the graded cards from the junk era much higher prices[/QUOTE]

The graded cards from the junk era are higher priced partly BECAUSE there were no TPGs at the time. Junk era cards sat in packs with gum, had manufacturing issues that produced more bad cuts, bad centering, more fish eyes, poor paper stock etc that directly impacted the cards before they even came out of the packs. Once out of the packs they were tossed into boxes with no sleeves/protection in lots of cases. They were rubber banded together, tossed into shoe boxes etc, again impacting the condition. The cards were just not protected OR manufactured to the standards they generally are today. All of that to say there will be FAR fewer PSA 10s of 1983 Topps Tony Gwynns, 1990 Topps Frank Thomas' for example than 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout, 2020 Topps Luis Roberts etc.

In short it is almost an apples and oranges comparison between 1988 Topps and 2018 Topps.

[QUOTE=jared6180;17079446]The graded cards from the junk era are higher priced partly BECAUSE there were no TPGs at the time. Junk era cards sat in packs with gum, had manufacturing issues that produced more bad cuts, bad centering, more fish eyes, poor paper stock etc that directly impacted the cards before they even came out of the packs. Once out of the packs they were tossed into boxes with no sleeves/protection in lots of cases. They were rubber banded together, tossed into shoe boxes etc, again impacting the condition. The cards were just not protected OR manufactured to the standards they generally are today. All of that to say there will be FAR fewer PSA 10s of 1983 Topps Tony Gwynns, 1990 Topps Frank Thomas' for example than 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout, 2020 Topps Luis Roberts etc.

In short it is almost an apples and oranges comparison between 1988 Topps and 2018 Topps.[/QUOTE]

That's a fair point that I had not fully considered :)

Back in the 90’s, I can walk into a 7-11, many gas stations, Costco, grocery stores, and mini-marts to buy sports cards. There were also so many options for local card shops. Today, I can barely find any wax on the shelves at Target. I do agree that sports cards are now getting over-produced again.. but in my opinion, this is no where close to the 90’s.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079445]I think many also like the encapsulation which would continue and you know the card is protected + they identify flaws and as another poster stated their rate is still very good compared to misses.

Also the set registry guys will still buy up stuff.

In your opinion if the market crashes would you see graded items rebounding quicker/ by a higher percentage or?[/QUOTE]

Ill premise this by again saying this is only if the market crashes cause i think there is ways that the market could stay strong without the tpgs taking a hit. But i think if the market crashes everything from a certian time frame will come into major questioning once there is some clarity in the sense that people arent looking the other way becuase of the money like they are right now. those cards that are questioned will drop to the price of a raw card or maybe slightly more than one and will stay there until they are either regraded or broken out of the slab. I would love to see psa's market crash and then them start training people to catch altered cards. And then we could watch everybody crack and resubmit there cards from that time frame and we would finally see what the real rate of trimmed cards was. I might be wrong but i believe that if everything from the lest ten years was cracked and submitted to a non biased company that could identify altered cards we would see an altered percentage of at least 5 percent if not more. The hard truth is we will probably never know the exact number and psa certianly isnt going to tell us.

[QUOTE=REGGIE206;17079487]Back in the 90’s, I can walk into a 7-11, many gas stations, Costco, grocery stores, and mini-marts to buy sports cards. There were also so many options for local card shops. Today, I can barely find any wax on the shelves at Target. I do agree that sports cards are now getting over-produced again.. [B]but in my opinion, this is no where close to the 90’s.[/QUOTE][/B]

agreed. but if they keep upping the print run every year we will get there and i dont see topps looking at this from any standpoint other than lets print til we cant anymore. To say we are on a bubble thats going to burst tommorow is a reach but there are reasons to believe we will get there.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079409]Good post but now i really desire to know what your graded card is! :D[/QUOTE]

Nothing huge.

2019 Chronicles Prestige Zion Williamson PSA 9

Again, he gave me a great bundle deal with the boxes I bought, the supplies and the singles. If I took everything it was pretty much pay for the boxes and get the supplies and singles for free. Could not complain.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079411]I see your point of view but i am off the opinion that everything graded in the past five to ten years at least of graded stuff will essentially drop to the point of being worth the same of a raw card if we see a market crash. PSA and bgs's opinions right now are as trustworthy as if i had my card graded by my neighborhoods local crackhead at the current moment. Thats not to say that those cards cant be cracked out and resubmitted to an improved more turstworthy psa or bgs or a diffrent tpg tha could take over and regain that worth though.[/QUOTE]

I don’t know if they will ever fall to the point of raw. GMA prices are still above raw. You at least have to add in the protection value at that point. They may fall when the bubble pops, but not to raw values.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079430]

I would say that there number is higher than 1 percent at this point. Also comparing psa to other companies is a dangerous game because most other companies errors dont have the type of possible repercutions that psa's does. PSA's errors can cost people major money if they find out they have a psa card thats slabbed and altered and has already passed through multiple peoples hands since grading. God forbid a massive card comes back as altered after a million dollar sale. PSA's errors also take a lot longer to resolve than most others. If i need to get a psa card reslabbed due to there error it can take a month plus just to get it back when it is psas error to begin with. If a restraunt messes up my food i can get it changed in twenty mins, if my insurance company messes up a form i can get ahold of them and have it changed within a day or two at most. You cant look at just error rate. You need to take into account the consequences of said errors.

To your point of people buying the cards for protection. I can see that happening but its hard to see people consistently paying 25 dollars minimum for a case. Also at that point psa would no longer be a grading company it would be a case company. Im still suprised that a company hasnt come in with no grading but just a clean case with a nice looking label. People would pay a reasonable price for that i would think.[/QUOTE]

I completely agree, and as a collector I want them to improve. Maybe change in management will help that. To say it is more than 1% of their cards are fraudulent is excessive though. PSA has graded 40MM cards. That means the graded 400,000 fake/trimmed/altered cards without marking them as such. I don’t buy that, it is far less IMO.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079432]PSA's opinion is only worth a darn to anyone right now cause its making people money. If the market crashes there opinion will become worthless in a second.[/QUOTE]

That’s not true. I appreciate their opinion, but I also understand it is just that. We all ask our collector friends what they think of the condition of cards we have or are about to buy. When I go to a TPG, that is all I am doing, except now I am paying him $25 for that opinion AND for them to encase the card for me. It is far from perfect, but when you understand it is only an opinion of someone who looks at hundreds of cards a day, then you will be better off.

[QUOTE=actionbryan;17079213]card shows post covid assuming the hobby is still full steam ahead are gonna be crazy. that thought just occurred to me for the first time[/QUOTE]

todays show was the biggest we ever had--no doubt, no distancing whatsoever, butt2butt throwing bows, totally stupid money getting thrown out, prices in every extreme, people pouncing on the new dealers before they even set up, just ugliness, but money to be made if you sell, obviously.

A signifigant item of note--the damn phones. Nobody knows prices--buying or selling today. two dealers said they hadnt updated their prices yet--ur not selling crap dude, pass! More bubble signs today fer sure, no rookie should command more than 20. How much is Herbert going to succeed in the next five years with mahomie in the same division? I saw herberts for 60? It just saddened me. Mahomes is down, Durant/Harden up, Brady/Jordan up as usual, not much for luka/trae/ja today, No mosaic or draft prizm interest--those sat all day. And, Zero/No Interest in Hoops rc's, as usual.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079445]I think many also like the encapsulation which would continue and you know the card is protected + they identify flaws and as another poster stated their rate is still very good compared to misses.

Also the set registry guys will still buy up stuff.

In your opinion if the market crashes would you see graded items rebounding quicker/ by a higher percentage or?[/QUOTE]

Forgot about the registry aspect! Another reason why people will still flock to PSA. Being the top of those registries comes with some perks.

[QUOTE=REGGIE206;17079487]Back in the 90’s, I can walk into a 7-11, many gas stations, Costco, grocery stores, and mini-marts to buy sports cards. There were also so many options for local card shops. Today, I can barely find any wax on the shelves at Target. I do agree that sports cards are now getting over-produced again.. but in my opinion, this is no where close to the 90’s.[/QUOTE]

Come on Reggie, you know better. Just because you can’t get them doesn’t mean their not there.

We are back to having them in many places:
LCS, online, Target, Walmart, Meijer, Walgreens, CVS, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Grocery Stores, Barnes and Nobles, BAM, Five Below, Big Lots, and for the first time I saw some packs at a Parker’s the other day.

People are just beating you to them.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079488]Ill premise this by again saying this is only if the market crashes cause i think there is ways that the market could stay strong without the tpgs taking a hit. But i think if the market crashes everything from a certian time frame will come into major questioning once there is some clarity in the sense that people arent looking the other way becuase of the money like they are right now. those cards that are questioned will drop to the price of a raw card or maybe slightly more than one and will stay there until they are either regraded or broken out of the slab. I would love to see psa's market crash and then them start training people to catch altered cards. And then we could watch everybody crack and resubmit there cards from that time frame and we would finally see what the real rate of trimmed cards was. I might be wrong but i believe that if everything from the lest ten years was cracked and submitted to a non biased company that could identify altered cards we would see an altered percentage of at least 5 percent if not more. The hard truth is we will probably never know the exact number and psa certianly isnt going to tell us.[/QUOTE]

I would like to see a correction in PSA as well, and maybe a bubble pop will do it. 10s need to fall and 9s need to rise. A nine is an almost perfect card, people should be willing to pay more for those than they do and a bubble pop may help do that.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079492][/B]

agreed. but if they keep upping the print run every year we will get there and i dont see topps looking at this from any standpoint other than lets print til we cant anymore. To say we are on a bubble thats going to burst tommorow is a reach but there are reasons to believe we will get there.[/QUOTE]

Print run on 2021 Series 1 base is ~650k per card. That's not peak 1991 Topps at 1.5 million per but it's not far off of the 1987-1990 runs either.

[QUOTE=jared6180;17079446]The graded cards from the junk era are higher priced partly BECAUSE there were no TPGs at the time. Junk era cards sat in packs with gum, had manufacturing issues that produced more bad cuts, bad centering, more fish eyes, poor paper stock etc that directly impacted the cards before they even came out of the packs. Once out of the packs they were tossed into boxes with no sleeves/protection in lots of cases. They were rubber banded together, tossed into shoe boxes etc, again impacting the condition. The cards were just not protected OR manufactured to the standards they generally are today. All of that to say there will be FAR fewer PSA 10s of 1983 Topps Tony Gwynns, 1990 Topps Frank Thomas' for example than 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout, 2020 Topps Luis Roberts etc.

In short it is almost an apples and oranges comparison between 1988 Topps and 2018 Topps.[/QUOTE]

This is extremely true and why I've been buying PSA10s of 80s and 90s guys like Bagwell, Chipper, Sosa, Sheffield, etc. and PSA9s of others like Gwynn, Sandberg, and Boggs.

Juan Soto 2018 Topps Update: 23,227 total graded, 16,020 PSA10s
Ronald Acuna Jr 2018 Topps Update: 26,235 total graded, 17,404 PSA10s
Fernando Tatis Jr 2019 Topps Series 2: 18,433 total graded, 11,744 PSA10s

There is a 10 million card backlog right now at PSA. How many of them do you think are the above three cards? 5% (quite conservative I think) would be 500,000 of those three cards and with gem rates on all three at approx 65% that's 300,000-350,000 more PSA10s of the three of them combined. I just don't see that as a sustainable market.


Mike Trout 2011 Topps Update: 9,189 total graded, 5,235 PSA10s

Jeff Bagwell 1991 Topps Traded: 6,568 total graded, 1,543 PSA10s

Chipper Jones 1991 Topps: 10,541 total graded, 5,496 PSA10s in the most overproduced set of all time at 1.5 million copies per card

Tom Glavine 1988 Topps: 3,602 total, 1,163 PSA10s (not the most comparable player for submission popularity but still)

Tony Gwynn 1983 Topps: 21,537 total, 675 PSA10s

Kirby Puckett 1985 Topps: 8,926 total, 433 PSA10s

The Trout might be the only post 2010 card that holds value because 2011 print run was very low.

You can literally add up the PSA10 pop of all Bagwell RCs combined and not get to the individual Tatis, Acuna, or Soto pops for 1 card.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079554]I would like to see a correction in PSA as well, and maybe a bubble pop will do it. 10s need to fall and 9s need to rise. A nine is an almost perfect card, people should be willing to pay more for those than they do and a bubble pop may help do that.[/QUOTE]

There's some truth here too. The only two Bagwell RCs I don't have in a PSA10 are the Bowman and Studio. There are only 16 PSA10 Studios and I haven't seen one for sale. A PSA10 for the Bowman is $250+ while I bought a PSA9 for $13 shipped a couple days ago. There is no reason for that kind of pricing disparity if it was just about the quality of the card.

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079110]Yes live card shows are gonna be great once we can/are willing to go again post covid![/QUOTE]

If your state (or province) is not allowing shows, I feel really bad for you.

Florida has had shows for months, and no issues. Have never been more proud to call Florida home, watching how they’ve handled all of this.

[QUOTE=Donkaylove;17079546]todays show was the biggest we ever had--no doubt, no distancing whatsoever, butt2butt throwing bows, totally stupid money getting thrown out, prices in every extreme, people pouncing on the new dealers before they even set up, just ugliness, but money to be made if you sell, obviously.

A signifigant item of note--the damn phones. Nobody knows prices--buying or selling today. two dealers said they hadnt updated their prices yet--ur not selling crap dude, pass! More bubble signs today fer sure, no rookie should command more than 20. How much is Herbert going to succeed in the next five years with mahomie in the same division? I saw herberts for 60? It just saddened me. Mahomes is down, Durant/Harden up, Brady/Jordan up as usual, not much for luka/trae/ja today, No mosaic or draft prizm interest--those sat all day. And, Zero/No Interest in Hoops rc's, as usual.[/QUOTE]

Love the guys now when I was last at a show that told me he had to check ebay lisitings for his card so he could give me a price. I continued on my way lol

[QUOTE=Donkaylove;17079546]todays show was the biggest we ever had--no doubt, no distancing whatsoever, butt2butt throwing bows, totally stupid money getting thrown out, prices in every extreme, people pouncing on the new dealers before they even set up, just ugliness, but money to be made if you sell, obviously.

A signifigant item of note--the damn phones. Nobody knows prices--buying or selling today. two dealers said they hadnt updated their prices yet--ur not selling crap dude, pass! More bubble signs today fer sure, no rookie should command more than 20. How much is Herbert going to succeed in the next five years with mahomie in the same division? I saw herberts for 60? It just saddened me. Mahomes is down, Durant/Harden up, Brady/Jordan up as usual, not much for luka/trae/ja today, No mosaic or draft prizm interest--those sat all day. And, Zero/No Interest in Hoops rc's, as usual.[/QUOTE]

This isn’t 2013 man. I get your agenda here, but this reads like someone who thinks it’s 2013.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079503]Nothing huge.

2019 Chronicles Prestige Zion Williamson PSA 9

Again, he gave me a great bundle deal with the boxes I bought, the supplies and the singles. If I took everything it was pretty much pay for the boxes and get the supplies and singles for free. Could not complain.



I don’t know if they will ever fall to the point of raw. GMA prices are still above raw. You at least have to add in the protection value at that point. They may fall when the bubble pops, but not to raw values.



I completely agree, and as a collector I want them to improve. Maybe change in management will help that. To say it is more than 1% of their cards are fraudulent is excessive though. PSA has graded 40MM cards. That means the graded 400,000 fake/trimmed/altered cards without marking them as such. I don’t buy that, it is far less IMO.



That’s not true. I appreciate their opinion, but I also understand it is just that. We all ask our collector friends what they think of the condition of cards we have or are about to buy. When I go to a TPG, that is all I am doing, except now I am paying him $25 for that opinion AND for them to encase the card for me. It is far from perfect, but when you understand it is only an opinion of someone who looks at hundreds of cards a day, then you will be better off.[/QUOTE]



The protection value is the only reason i assume it might be slightly above raw. I can appreciate your opinion that its not more than one percent but i would probably disagree. Regardless though i doubt we ever get to see that number so its a mute point for anyone to really try it debate cause there is no direct evidence either way. As far as PSA just being an opinion, many people dont recognize that. They recognize as do i that the grade is just an opinion but they dont recognize that that grade could be a grade given to a card that is altered. I accept that their grade is an opinion but i dont accept the fact that i cant take them grading a card as a universal standard that it is not a reprint and is not altered. Also when i ask my collecto friends about condition there opinion doesnt make the card go up by 3x value.

I expect a professional grading company to be able to catch altered cards and i dont know why anybody else wouldnt. I can deal with mistakes like mislabeling and stuff but i cant deal with not being able to trust that our hobbies main grading companies cant catch an altered card. To me thats unnaceptable.

[QUOTE=WizardofOz1982;17079555]Print run on 2021 Series 1 base is ~650k per card. That's not peak 1991 Topps at 1.5 million per but it's not far off of the 1987-1990 runs either.[/QUOTE]

Agreed. I do think the parallels and autos and such buy us a little bit more leeeway this time around on print run but not much. But we are close to the breaking point and topps simply doesnt care. Topps will gladly print and print until the cards are worth pennies if people continue to buy. And i cant completely blame them. I wish they cared more about our hobbys longevity but as a business Why stop printing if there are people out there who will eat it all up.

Same delusions day after day. The game changed. It has passed many of you by because you refused to believe it was real. Learn to deal with it or go away. We are in a new world, and it’s awesome.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;17080009]Same delusions day after day. The game changed. It has passed many of you by because you refused to believe it was real. Learn to deal with it or go away. We are in a new world, and it’s awesome.[/QUOTE]

Realizing the topps is increasing print run every year and made an even bigger jump this year than past isnt delusion its fact. Same with the fact that topps is pumping out five to ten new products a year while keeping the same products going as well. Its also a fact that our supposed proffesional grading companies are missing altered cards. Delusion would not be seeing these things and at least questioning the direction the hobby is headed.

I would like to collect cards for many years to come so pardon me if i dont think a few years of making a lot of money of cards and then watching this all crash is acceptable. This is an awesome new world until we watch our collections that we plan on using as a retirment or to pass on to family turn to dust in front of our eyes. Although i dont plan on selling msot of my stuff til the day i die and will still enjoy it even if it loses value i would prefer it not be worthless when the time to sell comes because other people didnt pay attention to the clear issues because they like that there pockets were getting lined by a untrusthworthy grading company along with a card company that has no problem printing us into a major problem.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17080049]Realizing the topps is increasing print run every year and made an even bigger jump this year than past isnt delusion its fact. Same with the fact that topps is pumping out five to ten new products a year while keeping the same products going as well. Its also a fact that our supposed proffesional grading companies are missing altered cards. Delusion would not be seeing these things and at least questioning the direction the hobby is headed.

I would like to collect cards for many years to come so pardon me if i dont think a few years of making a lot of money of cards and then watching this all crash is acceptable. This is an awesome new world until we watch our collections that we plan on using as a retirment or to pass on to family turn to dust in front of our eyes. Although i dont plan on selling msot of my stuff til the day i die and will still enjoy it even if it loses value i would prefer it not be worthless when the time to sell comes because other people didnt pay attention to the clear issues because they like that there pockets were getting lined by a untrusthworthy grading company along with a card company that has no problem printing us into a major problem.[/QUOTE]
You’re right. All my 90s MJ will turn to dust because Topps made a lot of 2021 Series 1.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;17080072]You’re right. All my 90s MJ will turn to dust because Topps made a lot of 2021 Series 1.[/QUOTE]

We both know you got my point.

[QUOTE=Skeely;17080077]We both know you got my point.[/QUOTE]
What you posted is the exact same garbage that people have been posting for the last three years. Wrong then. Wrong now.

Junk Slab Era

[QUOTE=Skeely;17080049]Realizing the topps is increasing print run every year and made an even bigger jump this year than past isnt delusion its fact. Same with the fact that topps is pumping out five to ten new products a year while keeping the same products going as well. Its also a fact that our supposed proffesional grading companies are missing altered cards. Delusion would not be seeing these things and at least questioning the direction the hobby is headed.

[/QUOTE]

Agreed!

[QUOTE=Skeely;17079996]Agreed. I do think the parallels and autos and such buy us a little bit more leeeway this time around on print run but not much. But we are close to the breaking point and topps simply doesnt care. Topps will gladly print and print until the cards are worth pennies if people continue to buy. And i cant completely blame them. I wish they cared more about our hobbys longevity but as a business Why stop printing if there are people out there who will eat it all up.[/QUOTE]

Agree with this: the parallels and autos are fixed and in fact get much harder to hit as the print runs go up. That's very different from the big late 80s/90s sets. Remember, the limited run versions (Tiffany, Desert Shield) from those sets still have value the regular overproduced sets don't have. That's probably a better comparator. I'm happy with my topps Tiffany 1991 chipper rookie, who cares if there are 1.5 mill base of the same card.

So many tears from people who sold their cards off early or missed the boat. Now they want back in with $5 packs and $10K cards.



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